This website contains subjects I covered in my seminars (done within the context of a company) with the yellow buttons on the bottom what I used as a foundation for my older seminars between 1997-2007.
By Eric Vandenbroeck
For your own comments about related subjects you can contact me via: firstname.lastname@example.org
18 Jan. 2018: A Chinese nuclear attack submarine surfaced near Japan northwest of the disputed Senkaku Islands and hoisted the Chinese flag this while it is also reported that China builds up a new presence near the Doklam disputed border with India.To better understand it is important to know about the post-1989 Chinese patriotism and belief that a strong China reclaiming its core interests in Asia should be compatible with a China engaging in the liberal international order at the global level. China's New Nationalism.
14 Jan. 2017: The emergence of China's population as a monocultural and monoethnic people. The concept of Han Chinese.
9 Jan. 2017: While the end of Northern Song and the beginning of Southern Song Dynasty is considered a high point of Chinese innovation in science and technology, it is also where we will discover, lay the roots of Chinese Nationalism or the idea Han cosmopolitanism. The East Asian World Order.
5 Jan. 2017: The upcoming talks in Seoul have brought up the question if a US limited strike strategy against N.Korea is now on or off the table, whereby the question few are asking is in reference to China. From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary options?
2 Jan. 2018: It would be somewhat ironic if Iran, in its most strategically advantageous position in the Middle East since 2010, when it was expected it would press its advantage in the region in the year ahead is forced to put its ambitions aside to deal with unrest at home. What to make of the Iran protests?
30 Dec. 2017: With the conflict in Syria slowing down the conflict in Yemen seems anything but over.
27 Dec. 2017: Conflicting scholarship on the issue of the Rohingya in Myanmar, revisiting the Four Cuts Strategy, and China. What next with Myanmar and its Chinese influence.
24 Dec. 2017: The last few days have been awash with a media avalanche about the fact that the Congress, a decade ago quietly set up a multimillion-dollar program to investigate what are popularly known as unidentified flying objects, UFOs. Why the initiative might rather be reeking of desperation.
28 Dec. 2016: Other subjects I have covered in the recent past are Russia, Europe, Brexit, South Asia, the USA, South China Sea debacle, and so on. A look at other developments going forward in 2017.
Above a map of Syrian refugee flows.
20 Jan. 2017: On 10 January 1920, the League of Nations ratified the Treaty of Versailles, officially ending World War I with Germany. Much has been written about the treaty which concluded the First World War, its competing and sometimes conflicting goals. And as we shall see it also was the beginning of a long propaganda exercise to discredit the victors. P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231.
1 Febr. 2017: Weimar politics and the reception of the Versailles Peace Treaty. The conspiracy theory that gave rise to Hitler:
6 Febr. 2017: Given its centennial this year no doubt we will see a lot of renewed discussions about the insurrection by Lenin and those that were willing to fight with him to overthrow the Provisional Government. But the most important event that followed no doubt where the complex situations that ensued when the Russian Empire fell apart. First, some unanswered questions about the event that brought the Civil War to the Russian heartland. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.1: Why and how the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian railway.
12 Febr. 2017: After the 1917 Bolshevist insurrection the Russian Empire also stood at Germany’s mercy. But it was signing the diktat peace treaty of Brest-Litovsk that largely determined the actual fighting in 1918. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.2: The Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention.
20 Febr. 2017: One of the most serious threats to the Bolsheviks came from the would-be Russian government controlled, in Samara and Ufa provinces. And when the latter issued a formal invitation for the Allies to intervene militarily in Russia’s civil war. The United States and Japan promptly signed an agreement on proposed troop deployments to Siberia. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.3: The rise and fall of Komuch’s People’s Army.
28 Febr. 2017: Just as in February 1917, in Petrograd, nobody had got the revolution they wanted, by end 1918 nobody got the counter-revolution they wanted. Thus the emergence of Kolchak as supreme ruler. When the Allies started to pull back the Red Army stormed into Ufa pushing the Whites back to the Ural Mountains. However, Trotsky’s heightened focus on the eastern front did open up room for Denikin's Volunteer Army in the south. While by not pursuing Yudenich into Estonia, Trotsky had levered Britain into a policy of accommodation. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.4: From White resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement.
12 March 2017: The increased risk of war in Korea. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.1.
25 May 2017: Since early on 23 May, the media have been abuzz about the incendiary statements about Iran and Israel posted on Qatar’s state-run news agency (that authorities blamed on hackers) sparked a regional dispute Wednesday, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia blocking Qatari media including Al-Jazeera. The series of disputes of which this is just the latest spat, as we shall see, go back some years. Except for this time around things are set to become much worse. Case Study: Qatar's master strategy or opportunism?
28 May 2017: It is clear that North Korea is forging ahead with its nuclear and missile programs despite the threat of new sanctions and deepening international isolation. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.2.
6 June 2017: Gulf plunged into diplomatic crisis as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the U.A.E. and Egypt broke diplomatic relations and cut all land sea and air contacts with Qatar requesting Qatari citizens to leave. Two longtime rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse.
11 July 2017: While the current US President's visit to Poland and Nationalists speech a few days ago was largely symbolic, Polish commentators didn't miss the fact that Trump mentioned the 1919/20 armed conflict led by General Pilsudski including the fact that it was due to President Wilson that Poland received its independence. The following investigation, however, will dispell the myth that instead of being negotiated with or arbitrated by the League of Nations the new Polish border, in reality, were being determined by brute force because the provisions of the Paris Peace Conference were unenforceable. Signed the same day as the main Treaty of Versailles was signed, this article will also make mention of the Polish Minority Treaty or "Little Treaty of Versailles" as it is known. Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making of Eastern Europe.
20 July 2017: Yesterday US intelligence sources said that North Korea may be gearing up to test another intercontinental or intermediate-range ballistic missile. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.3.
26 July 2017: In context what is an almost forgotten war, China yesterday warned India it is willing to defend territory “at all costs,” and it should not harbor any “unrealistic illusions” over a border dispute that threatens to boil over into an open conflict. Will the Standoff Lead to a Second India-China War? With Update 29 Aug. 2017
3 Aug. 2017: The last two days there has been news that the US is speeding up its deployment of two aircraft carriers in waters around the Korean Peninsula, whereby other recent comments suggest that sparking a real conflict in East Asia is preferable to accepting a theoretical threat to the United States. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.4.
9 Aug.2017: Military officials for the first time leaked information about a specific plan for a preemptive strike on North Korea. The USA "ready to fight tonight" claim.
12 Aug. 2017: Today I arrived per intercontinental flight in Vienna where I will do archival research at Vienna's Haus-, Hof- und Staatsarchiv. Above, to overcome jet lag (picture taken during) a walk near the Nikolaitor in Vienna. After my visit to China 10-15 Dec., I then will fly to London where I will do my final research for this year.
2 Oct. 2017: Following Christopher Clark's bestseller, The Sleepwalkers about the origins of WWI (where Clark revived the revisionist argument of the 1930's) a new discussion has ensued about who and what started the First World War of which the consequences are very much present today. A major topic, including in Clark's book which devotes a quarter of his book to Serbia which he depicts as the real cause. Having embarked on a detailed investigation, we now present a nine-part investigation with new answers that help us understand why so many historians got it wrong. The almost First World War P.1.
6 Oct. 2017: The almost First World War P.2.
10 Oct. 2017: The almost First World War P.3.
15 Oct. 2017: Leading up the First World War P.4.
20 Oct. 2017: Leading up to the First World War P.5.
24 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.6.
27 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.7.
30 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.8.
1 Nov. 2017: How the First World War started P.9.
2 Nov. 2017: Today marks the centenary of the Balfour Declaration, a 67-word letter from Britain's then foreign secretary Arthur Balfour that threw London's backing behind a homeland for the Jewish people in Palestine. And while many demands that the UK government apologize for it, overlooked is the fact that the statement would not have been made without prior approval from the other Allied powers including the Vatican and a jostling with the USA. A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour Declaration.
8 Nov. 2017: Over the weekend, Mohammad bin Salman purged his potential rivals to impose a centralized system that can confront what is perceived as the Iranian threat. Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control of the Middle East.
15 Nov. 2017: The following came as part of a discussion with a former student when he asked me about the Bobrinskoy Orthodox Order of Saint John (OOSJ) and the alleged "The Sovereign Hospitaller Order of Saint John of Jerusalem Knights of Malta" thus opening up what for me is a new research topic. Self-styled Knights Of Today.
19 Nov. 2017: Where the previous part described the phenomenon of self-styled Knightly orders of St John or of Malta, most of these orders claim to be continuations of various alleged offshoots of what now appears to be a non-existing Russian Orthodox priory. Case Study: Malta and the Russian Usurpation.
27 Nov. 2017: In the following historical investigation it has become clear that the original SMOM Order indeed continued unabated and that the Order's continuing sovereign status was not forfeited through the loss of Malta. The appointment of a new Grand Master.
2 Dec. 2017: Contested as some of the following developments initially where they also contain some intrigue. The foundations of the National Associations of the Order in England and Germany.
7 Dec. 2017: Following an earlier remark about Festing at the end of the discussion here, there is in fact a historical precedent in the form of an even more severe dispute that more significantly gave rise to a vacancy in the Grand Mastership from 1951 to 1962(which Roger Peyrefitte's famous novel wrongfully attributed to a grain deal). Vatican's opposition to the Order of Malta.
9 Dec. 2017: While the UN security council is to meet in order to discuss the US decision to Jerusalem as Israel's capital, here an analysis of the Jerusalem problem and the two-state solution option. Jerusalem Unveiled.
Arrived today per intercontinental flight in Vienna where I will do research about the origins of the First World War. Above, to overcome jet lag (picture taken during) a walk near the Nikolaitor in Vienna. I hope to place the results of my investigation on this website in the course of October 2017.
23 Dec. 2016: While there is no clear resolution in sight when it comes to settling the Israeli and Palestinian dispute, including the governments that offer the Palestinian Authority political and financial support, are loath to risk their relationship with Israel by advocating the creation of a Palestinian state, another conference is about to take place. Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan.2017:
25 Dec. 2016: The Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward.
20 Dec. 2016: From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8: British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today.
14 Dec. 2016: Sykes-Picot granted Britain the right to administer Syria after it captured the Levant from the Ottomans in 1918.In 1919, London conceded at the Paris Peace Conference both Levantine entities to France that moved quickly and, aware of Hashemite progress, settled on creating Greater Lebanon.From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.7: The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon today.
8 Dec. 2016: The profound effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First World War can be seen echoing through the history of the 20th century. From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6: The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’, and the British.
In recent months a number of Arab States, like for example Amman, have celebrated the centennial of the 'Arab Revolt' 1916-2016.
20 Oct. 2016: Soon I will be posting a series of three research articles about the Balfour Declaration and several more about the Versailles Treaty and the Making of the Modern Middle East, whereby first here an introductory: During the First World War, British strategy for the Middle East was aimed at protecting India, which meant keeping India’s numerous Muslim subjects tranquil. Initially, this gained Whitehall’s support, as it feared foreign troops in the Muslim Holy Land would make the followers of Hussein, the Sharif of Mecca, Emir of the Hejaz and potential British ally, oppose him. From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.1: The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East.
24 Oct. 2016: Mark Sykes returned to England where, almost immediately, he was thrust into negotiations with M. Charles François Georges-Picot, French counselor in London and former French consul general in Beirut, to try to harmonize Anglo-French interests in ‘Turkey-in-Asia’. Picot on the other hand had ‘expressed complete incredulity as to the projected Arab kingdom, said that the Sheikh had no big Arab chiefs with him, that the Arabs were incapable of combining, and that the whole scheme was visionary.' From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2: The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East.
26 Oct. 2016: The rebellion sparked by the Hussein-McMahon correspondence; the Sykes-Picot agreement; and memoranda such as the Balfour Declaration (to be dealt with in detail) all have shaped the Middle East into forms which would have been unrecognizable to the diplomats of the 19th century.From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.3: The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It.
29 Oct. 2016: French rivalry in the Hijaz; the British attempt to get the French government to recognize Britain’s predominance on the Arabian Peninsula; the conflict between King Hussein and Ibn Sa’ud, the Sultan of Najd; the British handling of the French desire to take part in the administration of Palestine; as well as the ways in which the British authorities, in London and on the spot, tried to manage French, Syrian, Zionist and Hashemite ambitions regarding Syria and Palestine.From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.4: The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question.
6 Nov. 2016: The British authorities in Cairo, Baghdad, and London steadily lost their grip on the continuing and deepening rivalry between Hussein and Ibn Sa’ud, in particular regarding the possession of the desert town of Khurma. British warnings of dire consequences if the protagonists did not hold back and settle their differences peacefully had little or no effect. All the while the British wanted to abolish the Sykes– Picot agreement. From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5: The Syrian question.
16 Nov. 2016: This is the most important and longest part. Following, a gripping account of the swashbuckling during the Paris Peace Conference deliberations including the Arab/Syrian, the King-Crane Commission, impasses and some breakthrough at the end. From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6: The Paris Peace Conference deliberations.
25 Nov. 2016: One of the most far-reaching outcomes of the First World War was the creation of Palestine, initially under Britain as the Mandatory, out of an ill-defined area of the southern Syrian boundary of the Ottoman Empire. Considering this, on 16 Nov. 2016, the British Parliament debated the Balfour Declaration and how its upcoming 2017 Centennial should be handled. Yet even professionals are often not familiar with the details surrounding the Balfour Declaration, thus here a detailed investigation. The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1.
28 Nov.2016: Showing the topic is of ongoing relevance, following the British Parliament last week, tomorrow a discussion about the Balfour Declaration is to take place in the House of Commons. My analysis, however, is wholly independent of pro or contra stance and instead focuses on discovering the historical details that have been left out in recent discussions. The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2.
2 Dec. 2016: Apart from the strategic consideration that they needed Palestine for the imperial defense of India, the decision by the War Cabinet to authorized foreign secretary Balfour to make a declaration of sympathy with Zionist aspirations in November 1917, one could ad, was also a curious blend of sentiment (the romantic notion of the Jews returning to their ancient lands after 1,800 years of exile) and anti- Antisemitism (world Jewry was a force that could vitally influence the outcome of the war) also led them to this decision. The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3.
29 November 2016 discussion about the Balfour Declaration at the British Houses of Parliament.
5 Dec. 2016: As we have seen, in the end, the idea was to use President Wilson’s recognition of the Balkan nations’ right to self-determination – namely, freedom from Ottoman rule – to overcome his opposition to the implementation of this same policy in the Middle East. By supporting Zionist aspirations in Palestine, the Lloyd George Government thus strove to compel Wilson to expand his policy regarding the 'small nations' from the European regions of the Ottoman Empire to its Asian territories. The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4.
6 June 2016: While a Brexit vote is very much possible, the leading voting reason is for Britain to quit the EU in order to curb immigration. But not only would there be the grave economic implications when the UK leaves, the Brexit campaign and the rise of Europe's populist right have also dented Turkish hopes of ever joining the EU. What will happen after Brexit:
17 June 2016: The Islamic State has lost grip on more than 10% of territory in six months, following is what is still there:
25 June 2016: "Whe're out", well sort of. The Implications and Germany's nightmare:
10 July 2016: In the wake of the more than a 100 people that were arrested in Baton Rouge, Louisiana today, one photo has stood out:
With a situation where five police officers were shot at in Dallas, the picture, of course, should not miss the complexity of the situation.
11 July 2016: The new British prime minister will lead a divided parliament and a divided country. The next steps of Theresa May.
12 July 2016: The Hague Tribunal Decides China has "no historic rights" in South China Sea: An international tribunal ruled that China’s claim to historic rights in most of the South China Sea has no legal basis, dealing a severe setback to Beijing that the U.S. fears could intensify Chinese efforts to establish its control by force. Continue…
13 July 2016: Boris is back, and could be a risky pick. Today’s cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however.
16 July 2016: The failed attempt by military factions to overthrow the elected government could be viewed as a victory for democracy. But it also reflects the increasing political polarization, repression of dissent, and fear for the country’s security that have emerged under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey’s new Sultanate.
20 July 2016: WikiLeaks releases 300 thousand internal emails from Erdoğan's AKP - through to July 7, 2016 plus 500,000 documents from in the wake of the failed coup. Crackdown in Turkey targeted over 58,000 people. Greek Air force confirms Erdogan was not chased by fighter jets during coup. Turkey's government fears second coup:
24 July 2016: Today British Intel published in the print edition of Focus Magazine shows Turkey knew in advance about coup plus Conclusion about what is really happening in Turkey.
1 Aug. 2016: Like Aleppo, Putin gave Chechen people of Grozny a chance to leave. Then destruction began. the Syrian Civil War is now in a critical stage. The make or break battle currently underway, rebels appear to be losing.
29 July 2016: Up to 1 million people could be forced to flee their homes in Iraq soon as fighting intensifies in a government offensive to retake Mosul from Islamic State militants, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said, plus 'growing evidence' Russia is using cluster bombs in Syria. And then today we have Aleppo. FM denounces "cynical game" of Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow.
6 Aug. 2016: Battle for Aleppo intensifies as rebels around 5 am this morning entered the Ramouseh Artillery Base, and a few hours later, the Islamic Front said the siege of east Aleppo has been broken. Who are the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond.
11 Aug 2016: Russia announces war games after accusing Ukraine of terrorist plot: Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine.
14 Aug 2016: Rebels in Aleppo trying to advance after broken the siege of Aleppo, question is for how long.
22 Aug 2016: Investigating the dead of Hammarskjöld in the Congo. Mads Brügger "Cold Case Hammarskjöld" and the making of the Operation Celeste myth, plus not a myth: Head of UN, Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag Hammarskjöld.
27 August 2016: It is not without historical irony that the centenary of the Great War was accompanied by civil war in Syria and Iraq, revolution in Egypt, and violent clashes between Jews and Arabs over the Palestinian question, as if to offer proof that many of the issues raised but not solved by the First World War and its immediate aftermath are still with us today. Investigating the never-ending Great War.
24 Aug 2016: As suggested by me earlier Turkish tanks and jets backed by planes from a U.S.-led coalition launched an offensive into Syria today. President Erdogan said the operation was targeting both Islamic State and the Kurdish PYD party. As I suggested on 25 May, the effect of the operation will be to preserve a corridor between Turkey and ISIS. Turkey told the Kurdish YPG that when they do not move back east across the Euphrates River within a week that Turkish troops will drive them back by force. International rivalry and the battle for Syria.
10 Sept. 2016: The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the Grand Mosque in Mecca: What two million people are about to do here.
28 Sept. 2016: Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there isn't anymore.
24 June 2016: Yesterday we were on transit in N.Thailand where we visited among others “the White Temple” near Chiang Rai:
24 May 2015: In what appeared to be an act of defiance Greece's defense minister recently threatens to send migrants including jihadists to Western Europe. And while this would be problematic, my opinion is that Greece will turn around and agree to yield about austerity. Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU.
21 Aug. 2015: The Weather as influenced by El Nino going forward.
23 Sept. 2015: Why the Islamic State represents a new and more dangerous evolution in the development of violent extremism and demonstrate its deep roots in Islamic history (click on image):
Online tool reveals terrorist networks and behavior over time.
20 Nov. 2015: In the last few weeks, Islamic State has carried out massacres in Baghdad, Ankara, and south Beirut, and downed a Russian plane with 224 passengers. It has taunted survivors with threats of future attacks as if its deepest wish were to provoke violent retaliation. Paris and the end times of ISIS:
21 Nov. 2015: The Paris debacle has also put the “long united long divided” Belgium back in the limelight. Belgium powers have been highly decentralized to try to prevent the country from breaking apart. Why this complicates the reaction to the Paris attacks:
On the left smog in Delhi, India. On the right smog in Beijing, China.
26 Nov. 2015: In a few days world leaders will gather in Paris for a grand conference on climate change, the 21st such get-together since the United Nations began to grapple with the issue. A torrent of pronouncements and promises has already issued forth—from Pope Francis, Xi Jinping, Barack Obama and many others. Here is a blueprint as to how to approach the problems:
28 Nov. 2015: Russia's sanctions might increase: Why Turkey shot down the Russian Jet.
12 Dec. 2015: Three days ago I arrived in Myanmar P.1: I look at why despite the NLD's sweeping win, public doubts linger about the military's government role given its record of political intervention and lucrative network of businesses that could be impacted by future policy shifts. I also look at the background of the so called peace agreement and why the fighting in Myanmar continues. Discovering the background from where today’s Myanmar evolved.
17 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.2: A lot of the current fighting is taking place in the area around Hpakant, not surprising one of the leading jade-producing zones. Plus concern NLD goes the way of AFPFL in the parliamentary era of the 1950s. To Myitkyina and Kachin State.
19 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.3 ethnic cleansing in Sittwe: Among others the 969 movement (by some seen as influenced by the psywar department) and how intolerance threatens Myanmar’s nascent transition to a more open, democratic state. Two kinds of Monks.
On the left rural market, on the right walking through Shan State
23 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.4 Shan State: Even after having signed a ceasefire, the Burmese military continued to attack the Burma Army and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan State Army-North areas. Ethnic rebels in the north of Burma, such as the Kachin Independence Army (KLA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), have accused the Burmese government of actively participating in the drug trade, whilst at the same time claiming to be cracking down on it. The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country.
27 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.5: If the Kachin have suffered the most at the hands of the Burmans in recent years, it is the Karen who have fought them for the longest. Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State.
30 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.6: Moulmein, Orwell, Kipling, the Mon, including revisiting the bizarre insurgency of two teenage boys. Mawlamyine and beyond.
24 Feb 2016: South China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S. allies.
10 April 2016: What is commonly known as the 'Russian Civil War' was, in fact, a whole series of overlapping and mutually reinforcing conflicts. The second First World War.
17 April 2016: After another incident just before in the Baltic Sea, currently the news is abuzz with reckless behavior by Russia vis a vis a US plane: We tell you why it happened.
6 May 2016: Aung San Suu Kyi Asks U.S. Not to Refer to ‘Rohingya’: Myanmar update.
16 May 2016: Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
18 May 2016: Although there are limits to these weapons' effectiveness, N. Korea would counter strike using its considerable artillery, rocket and missile arsenal. Continue…
25 May 2016: As the fighting intensifies in southern Turkey and northern Syria, various Kurdish factions are becoming significantly more important. How close is ISIS to defeat, and will Turkey invade Syria?
I attended the Honolulu Festival 7-8 March 2015 with underneath some of the photos I took:
1 Jan. 2015: The EU unable to solve its fundamental problem, unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its current form, why instability in the Arab world is to continue, the problem for China. The world going forward:
6 July 2013: With the approach of the centenary of the outbreak of the Great War, attention will focus again on the ‘origin’ of the First World War. Following is the story of an unnecessary tragedy - one that can be understood only by retracing the steps taken by those who went down the road to war. Almost every day it seemed possible that the crisis could be settled as so many had been over the previous decade; almost every day there was a new suggestion that gave statesmen hope that war could be avoided without abandoning vital interests. With each passing day, we see how the personalities of leading figures such as Kaiser Wilhelm II, the Emperor Franz Joseph, Tsar Nicholas II, Sir Edward Grey, and Raymond Poincaré were central to the unfolding crisis, how their hopes and fears intersected as events unfolded, and how each new decision produced a response that complicated or escalated matters to the point where they became almost impossible to contain. A new investigation why the First World War broke out.
7 July 2013: Dissecting the events in Sean McMeekin's book; The Real Russian Origins of the First World War.
2 March 2014: Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:
9 March 2014: Had Israel lost its war of independence in 1948, its territory would have been divided among the invading Arab forces. And as a recent article argues the name Palestine would have vanished into the dustbin of history. After the war, the Arab states continued to manipulate the Palestinian national cause to their ends. The Palestinians' Real Enemies.
16 March 2014: Case Study: The ‘decline of the West’ and a look behind Putin’s new Eurasianism.
30 Nov. 2014: Venezuela’s international reserves declined $1.3 billion following declining oil price. The worsening situation will make 2015 a crucial year for Venezuela:
26 Nov. 2014: While al Qaeda might have longed to take control of a significant nation-state, it primarily remained a sparse, if widespread, terrorist organization. It held no significant territory permanently; it was a movement, not a place. But the Islamic State, as its name suggests, is different. It sees itself as the kernel from which a transnational Islamic state should grow, and it has established itself in Syria and Iraq as a geographical entity. The Future of the Islamic State:
14 Oct. 2012: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: The Intervention Force in Mali.
30 Nov. 2012: Background of the crises in Egypt: Consequences for the balance of power between the Brotherhood and the military.
27 Nov., 2012: Background of the crises in Egypt: Protesters Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices.
5 Dec. 2012: The USS Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier that holds eight fighter bomber squadrons and 8,000 men, arrived at the Syrian coast today in the midst of a heavy storm, indicating US preparation for a potential ground intervention. Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical Weapons, yet why we should still be worried.
7 Dec. 2012: Background of the crises in Egypt: What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan.
13 Dec. 2012: Will the European Crises soon be over?
20 Dec. 2012: Suitable for Christmas and New Year, the below are just a few of the more than 100 titles about ‘positive thinking’ published this month. Plus then there is ‘The Power of Negative Thinking’ by Bob Knight. The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help books and Happiness.
24 Dec. 2012: Of importance to China, the question of the next Dalai Lama is political, not spiritual. The future Dalai Lama:
28 Dec. 2012: Apart from ‘positive thinking’ no other new religious movement coming from the USA has received so much attention as Scientology. Here a complete expose including an update about the signposts for reincarnated Scientologists who come from outer space plus 'could Belgium Bring Down Scientology?' and a review of Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood & The Prison of Belief. Enter Scientology:
29 Dec. 2012: Myanmar army jets yesterday fired on positions near the Kachin Capital: China/US, 2013 projection for Myanmar/ Burma.
30 Dec. 2012: What next with Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia: The Arab World in Transition 2013.
31 Dec. 2012: Two of the subjects that will become of increased importance the next months are Europe and the Middle East once more, today: The fate of Europe in 2013.
17 Jan. 2013: Al Quaeda and the Algerian hostage crises plus: Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Morocco, Lybia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Senegal.
18 Jan. 2013: French colonial policy redux or a new chance?: The Next Phase of the Mali Intervention.
20 Jan. 2013: Algerian hostage crises is over: When will Future Attacks take place.
22 Jan. 2013: Long-term conflict brewing in the Middle East: The Sunni-Shia struggle.
26 Aug. 2013: Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation Will Look Like:
23 Nov. 2013: China creates air defense zone over Japan-controlled islands. As Japan and China increase air activity around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, the United States is steadily increasing its active involvement to reassure Tokyo and send a warning to Beijing. But Beijing may seek an opportunity to challenge U.S. primacy in what China considers its territorial waters. Continue:
17 Sept. 2012: China: "For The Respect Of The Motherland, We Must Go To War With Japan." History as a political weapon:
21 Sept. 2012: The past ten days Salafi led unrest in reaction to an anti-Islamic video spread through the Muslim world. Here a look at who is behind it: The Salafist Resurgence.
15 Oct. 2012: The Start of Europe’s fragmentation.
20 Oct. 2012: Lebanon on a knife-edge: With Turkey moving warplanes to the Syrian border,US troops on standby in Jordan, the new tensions in Lebanon today are widening the influence of the Syrian civil war to neighbouring countries; Background forms the rebel Free Syrian Army supply lines in Lebanon.
24 Oct. 2012: The insurgency in Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas.
27 Oct. 2012: Satellite pictures show hundreds of buildings by Muslim Rohingya are destroyed in the coastal town of Kyaukpyu alone. Myanmar's Shame:
30 Oct. 2012: Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting the course of future events.
7 Nov 2012: Upcoming turmoil in Asia?
16 Nov. 2012: The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups than Hamas, wider relevance or importance.
17 Nov. 2012: Iran and the Gaza Offensive: Why the Iranian connection will complicate the situation.
29 Dec. 2011: Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil route, yet why they will not. (with Iran's Nuclear Sites map).
22 Dec. 2011: Why the European crisis has been solved (for a while).
6 Nov. 2011: Military steps up plans for Iran attack?
27 Oct. 2011: Europe’s Crises Worsening.
3 Oct. 2011: Geopolitical Imperatives of Greece and Consequences of the Coming Default:
31 Aug. 2011: Three days that rocked the world: The Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the last days of the Soviet Union
Enter: Arab Spring 2011
23 Jan. 2008: According to the Dictionary of Gnosis & Western Esotericism, 2005, p. 1049: "Because of the nature of its worldview, Scientology can be seen as belonging within the domain of Western esotericism" (the latter topic I covered in a seminar in 2001 see update here:) Now, following the recent book by Andrew Morton, “Tom Cruise: An Unauthorized Biography” Case Study (updated July 2008): Scientology Unveiled.
18 July 2008: Proceeding from Thomas Craughwell’s recent description in “How the Barbarian Invasions Shaped the Modern World” I trace the Huns to their Mongol related origin in what is now China, and how close they came to taking Rome: Continue...
22 July 2008: The following three books focus on the time when Turkish troops under Mustafa Kemal (aka Ataturk) took Smyrna. However, they also present an introduction to the larger context of the events in question. As we will next see, some of these issues still play al role in Turkish bid for EU membership, today:
14 Aug. 2008: Case Study: Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East.
5 Sept. 2008: While ‘Science of the Apocalypse’ drew a law suit demanding that the U.S. halt construction, The Telegraph today reports LHG Scientists get "end of the world" death threats. Apocalypse: The History of an Idea.
Why some people believe the Large Hadron Collider cause the end of the world.
6 Sept. 2008: Today Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has made a landmark visit to Armenia. Due to Turkey’s denial of an Armenian genocide, normally such contact would take place. In fact, it is only recently that also Germany’s historical role in the Armenian drama is emerging. And one reason Germany was so complacent in the matter might have been because Wilhelm II hatched a plan where Turkey would be colonized by Germans. Case Study:
8 Sept. 2008: Last week a new High-tech tool for unmasking counterfeit wine was unveiled. Yet it was hard to be sure whether a wine was fraudulent or not-- when even definitions of what “wine” was were not clear. Hence we researched: The Secret Wine Report.
19 Sept. 2008: While a recent book "Alexander Dugin and Extreme Right Networks" claimed neo-Eurasian involvement with the secret services, following a mention by Newsweek and Der Spiegel, the CSM now asks if Alexandr Dugin is really the new sage of the Kremlin. Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of Empire?
13 Sept. 2008: Chinese Yellow Turban rebellion, Celestial and Terrestrial Spirits, Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, Falun Gong. Case Study: The Politics of Qigong.
17 Sept. 2008: Having carefully watched last night’s ABC special “UFOs: Seeing is Believing” we continue with: Investigating, UFOs Seeing is Believing.
24 Sept. 2008: Millenarian Bolshevism and Nazism, Russia's New Map, Analyses of Abimael Guzman’s Shining Path, The Paranoia of Pol Pot's Communism, the Globalization of Genocide, Mongolia and East Germany, Cuba and Bulgaria, Romania and North Korea, Eastern Germany and Soviet Central Asia, Bin Laden's conspirational paranoid , Radical Islam, the Caliphate and Iraq.
28 Sept. 2008: From New Thought to Self Improvement Books:
29 Sept. 2008: The Politically Incorrect Guide to Psychology and Psychiatry:
4 Oct. 2008: Three recent books “Healing, Hype, or Harm?: A Critical Analysis of Complementary or Alternative Medicine”, “Suckers: How Alternative Medicine Makes Fools of Us All" and “Trick or Treatment: The Undeniable Facts about Alternative Medicine” do not only critique alternative medicine, but tells us also a lot about its history. We investigated further: Alternative Medicine in Context.
5 Oct. 2008: But while regulations regarding alternative therapies are now being considered, it might be time to do the same with mainstream medicine today. For example, when do new treatments stop being experimental? We all have a tendency to think that "newer is better" and "more is better" when it comes to medical care. We want to believe the marketing and media hype that describes many modest scientific steps as "lifesaving new technology." Case Study: Medical Advancements to the Test.
14 Oct. 2008: Where today saw the end of a Khmer Rouge trial, early 2009 will see the high level trial of chief interrogator Kaing Guek Eav, also known as Duch. And while the reason for the genocidal craze remained a mystery to date, we investigated and discovered the utopian longings and delusions of lost or stolen grandeur combined with delusions of persecution along with virulent conspiracy theories. The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror.
7 Jan. 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians.
10 Jan. 2009: The Problems with Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel.
17 July 2009: Jemaah Islamiah is most likely behind the fatal blasts in two Jakarta hotels today. Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad.
25 July 2009: .
9 March 2010:
15 March 2010: The dressing-down from Israel's closest ally over the approval of plans for new homes in Jerusalem during the US vice president's visit continued in full force over the weekend. One solution to leave Jerusalem undivided however would be to internationalize it. A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem:
10 April 2010: While it will have little effect on the permission for the US to have a transit bases there, it is clear from the April 7 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, that Russia is capable of creating “color revolution”-style uprisings in countries where it wants to increase its influence. And why China might be concerned, plus Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, The Baltic States. Continue:
23 April 2010: Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about Greece. Continue…
Countries by Population Size
16 Jan. 2004:
On the left myself as an 18 year old in Afghanistan just before I walked up and trough the Khyber Pass. On the right as an adult in Japan: