This
website contains subjects I covered in my seminars (done within the context of
a company) with the yellow buttons on the bottom what I used as a foundation
for my older seminars between 1997-2007.
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For your own
comments about related subjects you can contact me via: |
12 Aug. 2017: Today I arrived per
intercontinental flight in Vienna where I will do archival research at Vienna's
Haus-, Hof- und Staatsarchiv. Early next month I will
then proceed to London where I will do my final research for this year. Above,
to overcome jet lag (picture taken during) a walk near the Nikolaitor
in Vienna.
11 Aug.2017: In the
calculations of Germany’s leaders, the crisis was a golden opportunity to test
the Entente which they perceived as encircling Germany and its weakening ally
Austria-Hungary. The smoking gun, denied by Christopher Clark, in the story of
July 1914 is to be found in Bethmann Hollweg's refusal even to consider the scenario put to him
by Count Hoyos that Austria-Hungary would desist from
attacking Serbia if Germany considered the moment to be unfavorable. Or as Kurt
Riezler the top-level cabinet adviser who became the
closest confidant and advisor to German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg wrote that; “At
least people must concede that he ‘staged’ it [the war] very well. Besides, the
war, though not actually willed, was precisely calculated and broke out at the
most favorable moment.” What led to the
First World War P.4.
9 Aug.2017: Military officials
for the first time leaked information about a specific
plan for a preemptive strike on North Korea.
The USA
"ready to fight tonight" claim.
6 Aug.2017: On 6 July 1914,
the Austro-Hungarian representative told the Chancellor of Germany that,
although Austria-Hungary considered a military clash with Serbia unavoidable sooner
or later, it was prepared to content itself for the time being with closer ties
to Bulgaria - "in case Germany believed that a later moment would be more
favorable from a European point of view." This would have meant no war at
all, local or otherwise, in the summer of 1914, but Bethmann
Hollweg reacted immediately to squash this option,
promising Germany's "entire might" if Austria-Hungary deemed it
necessary to proceed against Serbia. Major Case
Study: What led to the First World War P.3.
3 Aug. 2017: The last two days
there has been news that the US is speeding up its deployment of two aircraft
carriers in waters around the Korean Peninsula, whereby other recent comments
suggest that sparking a real conflict in East Asia is preferable to accepting a
theoretical threat to the United States. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.4.
31 July 2017: It has been noted
that the killings of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo had
caused nothing - what brought the war about was the use made of this event.
Earlier in Germany on 21 June, the Kaiser talked to the Hamburg banker Max
Warburg, expressing his concern about Russia's rearmament program and
prioritization of its railway construction. He was "more nervous than
usual", anticipating that Russia's preparations might lead to war by 1916,
and wondering whether it would not be better "to strike out, instead of
waiting". Major Case Study: What led to the Frist World War P.2.
26 July 2017: In context what is an almost forgotten war, China yesterday
warned India it is willing to defend territory “at all costs,” and it should
not harbor any “unrealistic illusions” over a border dispute that threatens to
boil over into an open conflict. Will the Standoff Lead to a Second
India-China War?
24 July 2017: Following Christopher
Clark's bestseller The Sleepwalkers, about the origins of WWI and where Clark
revived the revisionist argument of the 1930's, a new discussion has ensued
about who and what started the war of which the consequences are very much
present today. Having embarked on a detailed investigation, we now present a
concluding set of new answers. One of the issues
covered in this first part is that an initial Memorandum of 24 June, before the
Sarajevo murder even took place, had already anticipated a war in the Balkans. Major Case Study: What
led to the Frist World War P.1.
20 July 2017: Yesterday US
intelligence sources said that North Korea may be gearing up to test another
intercontinental or intermediate-range ballistic missile. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.3.
11 July 2017: While the current
US President's visit to Poland and Nationalists speech a few days ago was largely
symbolic, Polish commentators didn't miss the fact that Trump mentioned the 1919/20 armed conflict led by General Pilsudski including the fact that it was due to
President Wilson that Poland received its independence. The following
investigation, however, will dispell the myth that
instead of being negotiated with or arbitrated by the League of Nations the new
Polish border, in reality, were being determined by
brute force because the provisions of the Paris Peace Conference were
unenforceable. Signed the same day as the main Treaty of Versailles was signed,
this article will also make mention of the Polish Minority Treaty or
"Little Treaty of Versailles" as it is known. Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making
of Eastern Europe.
4 July 2017: In the latest of
what is one of the most problematic countries in the world, Myanmar's leader
Aung San Suu Kyi now refuses entree to the United Nations Human Rights
Council’s (UNHRC) commission that wants to investigate allegations of recent
crimes and inhumane treatment by Myanmar’s security forces against minority
Rohingya Muslims. The current
situation in Myanmar.
6 June 2017: Gulf plunged into
diplomatic crisis as Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the U.A.E. and Egypt broke
diplomatic relations and cut all land sea and air contacts with Qatar
requesting Qatari citizens to leave. Two longtime rivals battle by proxy and why
this crisis will get worse.
28 May 2017: It is clear that North Korea is forging ahead
with its nuclear and missile programs despite the threat of new sanctions and
deepening international isolation. Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.2.
25 May 2017: Since early on 23
May, the media have been abuzz about the incendiary statements about Iran and
Israel posted on Qatar’s state-run news agency (that authorities blamed on
hackers) sparked a regional dispute Wednesday, with the United Arab Emirates
and Saudi Arabia blocking Qatari media including Al-Jazeera. The series of
disputes of which this is just the latest spat, as we shall see, go back some
years. Except for this time around things are set to become much worse. Case Study: Qatar's master strategy or opportunism?
12 March 2017: The increased risk
of war in Korea. Will
the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea
or intervene P.1.
28 Febr. 2017: Just as in February 1917, in Petrograd, nobody had got the revolution
they wanted, by end 1918 nobody got the counter-revolution they wanted. Thus the emergence of Kolchak as supreme ruler. When the
Allies started to pull back the Red Army stormed into Ufa pushing the Whites
back to the Ural Mountains. However, Trotsky’s heightened focus on the eastern
front did open up room for Denikin's
Volunteer Army in the south. While by not pursuing Yudenich
into Estonia, Trotsky had levered Britain into a policy of accommodation.
Captives of the Russian Civil War P.4: From White resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet
Trade Agreement.
20 Febr. 2017: One of the most serious threats to the Bolsheviks came from the
would-be Russian government controlled, in Samara and Ufa provinces. And when
the latter issued a formal invitation for the Allies to intervene militarily in
Russia’s civil war. The United States and Japan promptly signed an agreement on
proposed troop deployments to Siberia. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.3: The rise and fall of Komuch’s
People’s Army.
12 Febr. 2017: After the 1917 Bolshevist insurrection the Russian Empire also stood at
Germany’s mercy. But it was signing the diktat peace treaty of Brest-Litovsk
that largely determined the actual fighting in 1918. Captives of the Russian
Civil War P.2: The
Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention.
6 Febr. 2017: Given its centennial this year no doubt we will see a lot of renewed
discussions about the insurrection by Lenin and those that were willing to
fight with him to overthrow the Provisional Government. But the most important
event that followed no doubt where the complex situations that ensued when the
Russian Empire fell apart. First, some unanswered questions about the event
that brought the Civil War to the Russian heartland. Captives of the Russian
Civil War P.1: Why and how the
Czech Legion conquered the Siberian railway.
1 Febr. 2017: Weimar politics and the reception of the Versailles Peace Treaty. The conspiracy theory that gave rise to
Hitler:
20 Jan. 2017: On 10 January 1920,
the League of Nations ratified the Treaty of Versailles, officially ending
World War I with Germany. Much has been written about the treaty which concluded
the First World War, its competing and sometimes conflicting goals. And as we
shall see it also was the beginning of a long propaganda exercise to discredit
the victors. P.1 Reparations
and the famous Article 231.
28 Dec. 2016: Other subjects I
have covered in the recent past are Russia, Europe, Brexit, South Asia, the
USA, South China Sea debacle, and so on. A look at other developments going forward
in 2017.
Above a map of Syrian
refugee flows.
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23 Dec. 2016: While there is no
clear resolution in sight when it comes to settling the Israeli and
Palestinian dispute, including the governments that offer the Palestinian Authority
political and financial support, are loath to risk their relationship with
Israel by advocating the creation of a Palestinian state, another conference
is about to take place. Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan.2017:
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25 Dec. 2016: The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward.
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20 Dec. 2016: From Versailles to
the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8: British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and
the Syria crisis today.
14 Dec. 2016: Sykes-Picot granted Britain the right to administer Syria after it
captured the Levant from the Ottomans in 1918.In 1919, London conceded at the
Paris Peace Conference both Levantine entities to France that moved quickly
and, aware of Hashemite progress, settled on creating Greater Lebanon.From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.7: The unresolved
sectarian issue in Lebanon today.
8 Dec. 2016: The profound
effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First
World War can be seen echoing through the history of the 20th century. From
Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6: The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British.
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In recent months a number of Arab States, like for example Amman, have celebrated the centennial of the 'Arab Revolt' 1916-2016.
20 Oct. 2016: Soon I will be
posting a series of three research articles about the Balfour Declaration and
several more about the Versailles Treaty and the Making of the Modern Middle
East, whereby first here an introductory: During the First World War, British
strategy for the Middle East was aimed at protecting India, which meant keeping
India’s numerous Muslim subjects tranquil. Initially, this gained Whitehall’s
support, as it feared foreign troops in the Muslim Holy Land would make the
followers of Hussein, the Sharif of Mecca, Emir of the Hejaz and potential
British ally, oppose him. From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.1: The
‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle
East.
24 Oct. 2016: Mark Sykes
returned to England where, almost immediately, he was thrust into negotiations
with M. Charles François Georges-Picot, French counselor in London and former
French consul general in Beirut, to try to harmonize Anglo-French interests in
‘Turkey-in-Asia’. Picot on the other hand had ‘expressed complete incredulity
as to the projected Arab kingdom, said that the Sheikh had no big Arab chiefs
with him, that the Arabs were incapable of combining, and that the whole scheme
was visionary.' From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2: The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle
East.
26 Oct. 2016: The rebellion
sparked by the Hussein-McMahon correspondence; the Sykes-Picot agreement; and
memoranda such as the Balfour Declaration (to be dealt with in detail) all have
shaped the Middle East into forms which would have been unrecognizable to the
diplomats of the 19th century.From
Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.3: The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It.
29 Oct. 2016: French rivalry in
the Hijaz; the British attempt to get the French government to recognize
Britain’s predominance on the Arabian Peninsula; the conflict between King Hussein
and Ibn Sa’ud, the Sultan of Najd; the British
handling of the French desire to take part in the administration of Palestine;
as well as the ways in which the British authorities, in London and on the
spot, tried to manage French, Syrian, Zionist and Hashemite ambitions regarding
Syria and Palestine.From Versailles to the Making of
the modern Middle East P.4: The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question.
6 Nov. 2016: The British authorities
in Cairo, Baghdad, and London steadily lost their grip on the continuing and
deepening rivalry between Hussein and Ibn Sa’ud, in particular regarding the possession of the desert town of
Khurma. British warnings of dire consequences if the
protagonists did not hold back and settle their differences peacefully had
little or no effect. All the while the British wanted to abolish the Sykes–
Picot agreement. From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5: The Syrian question.
16 Nov. 2016: This is the most
important and longest part. Following, a gripping account of the swashbuckling
during the Paris Peace Conference deliberations including the Arab/Syrian, the
King-Crane Commission, impasses and some breakthrough at the end. From
Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6: The Paris Peace Conference deliberations.
25 Nov. 2016: One of the most
far-reaching outcomes of the First World War was the creation of Palestine,
initially under Britain as the Mandatory, out of an ill-defined area of the
southern Syrian boundary of the Ottoman Empire. Considering this, on 16 Nov.
2016, the British Parliament debated the Balfour Declaration and how its
upcoming 2017 Centennial should be handled. Yet even professionals are often
not familiar with the details surrounding the Balfour Declaration, thus here a
detailed investigation. The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1.
28 Nov.2016: Showing the topic
is of ongoing relevance, following the British Parliament last week, tomorrow a
discussion about the Balfour Declaration is to take place in the House of
Commons. My analysis, however, is wholly independent of pro or contra stance
and instead focuses on discovering the historical details that have been left
out in recent discussions. The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2.
2 Dec. 2016: Apart from the
strategic consideration that they needed Palestine for the imperial defense of
India, the decision by the War Cabinet to authorized foreign secretary Balfour
to make a declaration of sympathy with Zionist aspirations in November 1917,
one could ad, was also a curious blend of sentiment (the romantic notion of the
Jews returning to their ancient lands after 1,800 years of exile) and anti-
Antisemitism (world Jewry was a force that could vitally influence the outcome
of the war) also led them to this decision.
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3.
29 November 2016
discussion about the Balfour Declaration at the British Houses of Parliament.
5 Dec. 2016: As we have seen, in the end, the idea was to use President Wilson’s
recognition of the Balkan nations’ right to self-determination – namely,
freedom from Ottoman rule – to overcome his opposition to the implementation of
this same policy in the Middle East. By supporting Zionist aspirations in
Palestine, the Lloyd George Government thus strove to compel Wilson to expand
his policy regarding the 'small nations' from the European regions of the
Ottoman Empire to its Asian territories. The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.4.
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6 June 2016: While a Brexit
vote is very much possible, the leading voting reason is for Britain to quit
the EU in order to curb immigration. But not only
would there be the grave economic implications when the UK leaves, the Brexit
campaign and the rise of Europe's populist right have also dented Turkish
hopes of ever joining the EU. What
will happen after Brexit:
17 June 2016: The Islamic State
has lost grip on more than 10% of territory in six months, following is what
is still there:
25 June 2016: "Whe're out", well sort of. The Implications and Germany's nightmare:
10 July 2016: In the wake of
the more than a 100 people that were arrested in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
today, one photo has stood out:
With a situation where five police officers were shot at in Dallas,
the picture, of course, should not miss the complexity of the situation. 11 July 2016: The new British
prime minister will lead a divided parliament and a divided country. The next steps of Theresa May. 12 July 2016: The Hague Tribunal Decides China has "no historic rights"
in South China Sea: An international tribunal ruled that China’s claim to
historic rights in most of the South China Sea has no legal basis, dealing a
severe setback to Beijing that the U.S. fears could intensify Chinese efforts
to establish its control by force. Continue…
13 July 2016: Boris is back, and could be a risky pick. Today’s
cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however.
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16 July 2016: The failed attempt by military factions to overthrow the elected
government could be viewed as a victory for democracy. But it also reflects
the increasing political polarization, repression of dissent, and fear for
the country’s security that have emerged under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey’s
new Sultanate.
20 July 2016: WikiLeaks releases 300 thousand internal emails from Erdoğan's AKP - through to July 7, 2016 plus 500,000
documents from in
the wake of the failed coup. Crackdown in Turkey targeted over 58,000 people.
Greek Air force confirms Erdogan was not chased by fighter jets during coup. Turkey's
government fears second coup:
24 July 2016: Today British
Intel published in the print edition of Focus Magazine shows Turkey knew in
advance about coup plus Conclusion about what is really happening in Turkey.
1 Aug. 2016: Like Aleppo,
Putin gave Chechen people of Grozny a chance to leave. Then destruction
began. the Syrian Civil War is now in a critical stage. The make or break battle currently underway,
rebels appear to be losing.
29 July 2016: Up to 1 million
people could be forced to flee their homes in Iraq soon as fighting
intensifies in a government offensive to retake Mosul from Islamic State
militants, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said, plus
'growing evidence' Russia is using cluster bombs in Syria. And then today we
have Aleppo. FM denounces "cynical game" of
Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow. 6 Aug. 2016: Battle for Aleppo
intensifies as rebels around 5 am this morning entered the Ramouseh Artillery Base, and a few hours later, the Islamic Front said the
siege of east Aleppo has been broken. Who are the rebels and how will Assad and
Russia respond.
11 Aug 2016: Russia announces
war games after accusing Ukraine of terrorist plot: Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in
Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine. 14 Aug 2016: Rebels in Aleppo
trying to advance after broken the siege of Aleppo, question is for how long. 22 Aug 2016:
Investigating the dead of Hammarskjöld in the
Congo. Mads Brügger "Cold Case
Hammarskjöld" and the making of the Operation Celeste myth, plus not a
myth: Head
of UN, Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag
Hammarskjöld.
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27 August 2016: It is not without historical
irony that the centenary of the Great War was accompanied by civil war in Syria
and Iraq, revolution in Egypt, and violent clashes between Jews and Arabs over
the Palestinian question, as if to offer proof that many of the issues raised
but not solved by the First World War and its immediate aftermath are still
with us today. Investigating the never-ending Great War.
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24 Aug 2016: As suggested by me earlier Turkish tanks and jets backed by planes from a
U.S.-led coalition launched an offensive into Syria today. President Erdogan
said the operation was targeting both Islamic State and the Kurdish PYD
party. As I suggested on 25 May, the effect of the operation will be to
preserve a corridor between Turkey and ISIS. Turkey told the Kurdish YPG that
when they do not move back east across the Euphrates River within a week that
Turkish troops will drive them back by force. International rivalry and the battle for
Syria.
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10 Sept. 2016: The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the Grand Mosque in Mecca: What two million people are about to do here.
16 Sept. 2016: The US decision to lift all of its remaining
economic sanctions on Myanmar, also known as Burma, has surprised many. Did Obama remove pressure on the army too
soon? 28 Sept. 2016: Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest
cease-fire in Syria, there isn't anymore. |
24 June 2016: Yesterday we were
on transit in N.Thailand
where we visited among others “the White Temple” near Chiang Rai:
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24 May 2015: In what appeared to be an act
of defiance Greece's defense minister recently threatens to send migrants
including jihadists to Western Europe. And while this would be problematic, my opinion is that Greece will turn around and agree to
yield about austerity. Greece
expected to strike a deal with the EU.
9 Aug. 2015: Fighting
in Syria seen problematic for Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under
discussion. 21 Aug. 2015: The Weather as influenced by El
Nino going forward. 26 Aug. 2015: From Chinese
yuan adjustment to the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn. 23 Sept. 2015: Why the Islamic State represents a new and more dangerous evolution in
the development of violent extremism and demonstrate its deep roots in
Islamic history (click on image):
Online tool reveals terrorist networks and behavior over
time. 20 Nov. 2015: In the last few weeks, Islamic State has carried out massacres in
Baghdad, Ankara, and south Beirut, and downed a Russian plane with 224
passengers. It has taunted survivors with threats of future attacks as if its
deepest wish were to provoke violent retaliation. Paris and the end times of ISIS: 21 Nov. 2015: The Paris debacle has also put the “long united long divided” Belgium
back in the limelight. Belgium powers have been highly decentralized to try
to prevent the country from breaking apart. Why this complicates the reaction to the
Paris attacks: On the left smog in Delhi, India. On the right
smog in Beijing, China.
26 Nov. 2015: In a few days world leaders will gather in Paris for a grand
conference on climate change, the 21st such get-together since the United
Nations began to grapple with the issue. A torrent of pronouncements and
promises has already issued forth—from Pope Francis, Xi Jinping, Barack Obama
and many others. Here is a blueprint as to how to approach the
problems: 28 Nov. 2015:
Russia's sanctions might increase: Why Turkey shot down the Russian Jet.
12 Dec. 2015: Three days ago I arrived in Myanmar P.1: I look at why despite the
NLD's sweeping win, public doubts linger about the military's government role
given its record of political intervention and lucrative network of
businesses that could be impacted by future policy shifts. I also look at the
background of the so called peace agreement and why
the fighting in Myanmar continues. Discovering the background from where today’s
Myanmar evolved. |
17 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.2: A lot of the current fighting is taking
place in the area around Hpakant, not surprising
one of the leading jade-producing zones. Plus
concern NLD goes the way of AFPFL in the parliamentary era of the 1950s. To Myitkyina
and Kachin State.
19 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.3 ethnic cleansing in Sittwe: Among others the 969 movement (by some seen as
influenced by the psywar department) and how
intolerance threatens Myanmar’s nascent transition to a more open, democratic
state. Two
kinds of Monks. On the left rural
market, on the right walking through Shan State
23 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar
P.4 Shan State: Even after having signed a ceasefire, the Burmese military
continued to attack the Burma Army and the Shan State Progress Party/Shan
State Army-North areas. Ethnic rebels in the north of Burma, such as the
Kachin Independence Army (KLA) and the Ta’ang
National Liberation Army (TNLA), have accused the Burmese government of
actively participating in the drug trade, whilst at the same time claiming to
be cracking down on it. The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country.
27 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.5: If the Kachin have suffered the most
at the hands of the Burmans in recent years, it is the Karen who have fought
them for the longest. Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State. 30 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.6: Moulmein, Orwell, Kipling, the Mon, including revisiting the bizarre
insurgency of two teenage boys. Mawlamyine and beyond. 24 Feb 2016: South China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s
paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S.
allies. 10 April 2016: What is commonly known as the 'Russian Civil War' was, in fact, a
whole series of overlapping and mutually reinforcing conflicts. The second First World War. 17 April 2016: After another incident just before in the
Baltic Sea, currently the news is abuzz with reckless behavior by Russia vis
a vis a US plane: We tell you why it happened. 6 May 2016: Aung San Suu Kyi Asks U.S. Not to Refer to ‘Rohingya’: Myanmar update. 16 May 2016: Does the Middle East Need New Borders? 18 May
2016: Although there are
limits to these weapons' effectiveness, N. Korea would counter strike using
its considerable artillery, rocket and missile arsenal. Continue… 25 May 2016: As the fighting intensifies in southern Turkey and northern Syria,
various Kurdish factions are becoming significantly more important. How close is ISIS to defeat, and will Turkey
invade Syria? |
I
attended the Honolulu Festival 7-8 March 2015
with underneath some of the photos I took:
29 Jan. 2015: Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European
extreme right wing parties.
1 Jan. 2015: The EU
unable to solve its fundamental problem, unlikely that the Russian Federation
will survive in its current form, why instability in the Arab world is to
continue, the problem for China. The world going forward:
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6 July 2013: With the approach of the centenary of the
outbreak of the Great War, attention will focus again on the ‘origin’ of the
First World War. Following is the
story of an unnecessary tragedy - one that can be understood only by
retracing the steps taken by those who went down the road to war. Almost
every day it seemed possible that the crisis could be settled as so many had
been over the previous decade; almost every day there was a new suggestion
that gave statesmen hope that war could be avoided without abandoning vital
interests. With each passing day, we
see how the personalities of leading figures such as Kaiser Wilhelm II, the
Emperor Franz Joseph, Tsar Nicholas II, Sir Edward Grey, and Raymond Poincaré were central to the unfolding crisis, how their
hopes and fears intersected as events unfolded, and how each new decision
produced a response that complicated or escalated matters to the point where
they became almost impossible to contain. A new investigation why the
First World War broke out.
7 July 2013: Dissecting the events in Sean McMeekin's
book; The
Real Russian Origins of the First World War. 1March 2014: Enter the
Unfolding Crises in Europe and the Ukraine/Crimea:
2 March 2014: Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:
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4 March 2014: Thailand and the
Political and Economic Volatility in Important Markets.
6 March 2014: Intelligence scoop of what is happening with the
Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:
9 March 2014: Had
Israel lost its war of independence in 1948, its territory would have been
divided among the invading Arab forces. And as a recent article argues the
name Palestine would have vanished into the dustbin of history. After the
war, the Arab states continued to manipulate the Palestinian national cause
to their ends. The Palestinians' Real Enemies. 16 March 2014: Case
Study: The ‘decline of the West’ and a look behind
Putin’s new Eurasianism. 4 Dec. 2014: Putin’s
speech: The
main question now is whether Russia will push back with what power it has
left or find a way to compromise with this shifting worldview.
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30 Nov. 2014:
Venezuela’s international reserves declined $1.3
billion following declining oil price. The worsening situation will make
2015 a crucial year for Venezuela:
26 Nov. 2014: While al
Qaeda might have longed to take control of a significant nation-state, it
primarily remained a sparse, if widespread, terrorist organization. It held no
significant territory permanently; it was a movement, not a place. But the
Islamic State, as its name suggests, is different. It sees itself as the kernel
from which a transnational Islamic state should grow, and it has established
itself in Syria and Iraq as a geographical entity. The Future of the Islamic State:
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14 Oct. 2012: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb: The Intervention Force in Mali. 24 Nov. 2012: The contradictory web that fuels conflicts in
the Middle East.. 30 Nov. 2012: Background of the crises in Egypt: Consequences for the balance of power between the Brotherhood and the military.
27 Nov., 2012: Background of the crises
in Egypt: Protesters
Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices. 5 Dec. 2012: The USS
Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier that holds eight fighter bomber
squadrons and 8,000 men, arrived at the Syrian coast today in
the midst of a heavy storm, indicating US preparation for a potential
ground intervention. Why Assad Won’t Use
Chemical Weapons, yet why we should still be worried. 7 Dec. 2012: Background of the crises in
Egypt: What
next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan. 10 Dec. 2012: Why the War in Syria will not end with the removal of the al Assad regime. 13 Dec. 2012: Will the
European Crises soon be over? 20 Dec. 2012: Suitable for Christmas and New Year, the below are just a few of the
more than 100 titles about ‘positive thinking’ published this month. Plus then there is ‘The Power of Negative Thinking’ by Bob
Knight. The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help books
and Happiness.
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24 Dec. 2012: Of
importance to China, the question of the next Dalai Lama is political, not spiritual.
The
future Dalai Lama: 28 Dec. 2012: Apart
from ‘positive thinking’ no other new religious movement coming from the USA
has received so much attention as Scientology. Here a complete expose
including an update about the signposts for reincarnated Scientologists who
come from outer space plus 'could Belgium Bring Down Scientology?' and a
review of Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood & The Prison of Belief.
Enter Scientology:
29 Dec. 2012: Myanmar
army jets yesterday fired on positions near the Kachin Capital: China/US,
2013 projection for Myanmar/ Burma. 30 Dec. 2012: What next with Syria, Lebanon,
Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia: The Arab World
in Transition 2013. 31 Dec. 2012: Two of
the subjects that will become of increased importance the next months are
Europe and the Middle East once more, today: The fate of Europe
in 2013. 17 Jan. 2013: Al Quaeda and the Algerian hostage crises plus: Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Morocco, Lybia,
Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Senegal. 18 Jan. 2013: French colonial policy
redux or a new chance?: The Next Phase of
the Mali Intervention. 20 Jan. 2013: Algerian
hostage crises is over: When will Future Attacks take place. 22 Jan. 2013: Long-term
conflict brewing in the Middle East: The Sunni-Shia
struggle. 1 July 2013: Countdown Egypt:
Why Egypt's Mursi will either resign or be sacked
on 3 July. 26 Aug. 2013: Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation Will Look Like: |
23 Nov. 2013:
China creates air defense zone over Japan-controlled islands. As Japan and
China increase air activity around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, the United States is
steadily increasing its active involvement to reassure Tokyo and send a warning
to Beijing. But Beijing may seek an opportunity to challenge U.S. primacy in
what China considers its territorial waters. Continue:
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17 Sept. 2012: China: "For The
Respect Of The Motherland, We Must Go To War With Japan." History
as a political weapon:
21 Sept. 2012: The past ten days Salafi led unrest in
reaction to an anti-Islamic video spread through the Muslim world. Here a
look at who is behind it: The Salafist Resurgence. 1 Oct. 2012: Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union,Middle East/North
Africa, South Asia, Latin America. 15 Oct. 2012: The Start of Europe’s fragmentation.
20 Oct. 2012: Lebanon on a knife-edge: With Turkey moving
warplanes to the Syrian border,US
troops on standby in Jordan, the new tensions in Lebanon today are widening
the influence of the Syrian civil war to neighbouring
countries; Background
forms the rebel Free Syrian Army supply lines in Lebanon.
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24 Oct. 2012: The insurgency in Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas.
27 Oct. 2012: Satellite pictures show hundreds of buildings
by Muslim Rohingya are destroyed in the coastal town of Kyaukpyu
alone. Myanmar's Shame:
30 Oct. 2012: Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting the course of future events.
7 Nov 2012: Upcoming turmoil in Asia? 16 Nov. 2012: The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups than
Hamas, wider relevance or importance. 17 Nov. 2012: Iran and the Gaza
Offensive: Why
the Iranian connection will complicate the situation. |
29 Dec. 2011: Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil
route, yet why
they will not. (with
Iran's Nuclear Sites map).
22 Dec. 2011: Why the European crisis has been
solved (for a while).
6 Nov. 2011: Military
steps up plans for Iran attack?
27 Oct. 2011: Europe’s Crises Worsening.
21 Oct. 2011: The financial
crisis Europe faces it has not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs).
3 Oct. 2011: Geopolitical Imperatives of Greece
and Consequences of the Coming Default:
31 Aug. 2011: Three days that
rocked the world: The
Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the last days of the Soviet Union
Enter: Arab Spring 2011
Self invented knights
of today: The Knights of the Orthodox Order of Saint John
Russian Grand Priory (OOSJ) and The Russian Grand Priory Association of the
British Isles also called The British Association Russian Grand Priory of the
Order of St John of Jerusalem.
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23 Jan. 2008:
According to the Dictionary of Gnosis & Western Esotericism, 2005, p.
1049: "Because of the nature of its worldview, Scientology can be seen
as belonging within the domain of Western esotericism" (the latter topic
I covered in a seminar in 2001 see update
here:) Now, following the recent book by Andrew
Morton, “Tom Cruise: An Unauthorized Biography” Case Study (updated July 2008): Scientology Unveiled. 18 July 2008: Proceeding
from Thomas Craughwell’s recent description in “How
the Barbarian Invasions Shaped the Modern World” I trace the Huns to their
Mongol related origin in what is now China, and how close they came to taking
Rome: Continue... 22 July 2008: The
following three books focus on the time when Turkish troops under Mustafa
Kemal (aka Ataturk) took Smyrna. However, they also present an introduction
to the larger context of the events in question. As we will next see, some of
these issues still play al role in Turkish
bid for EU membership, today:
7 Aug. 2008:
France has rejected Rwandan
claims accusing French officials of playing an active role in the Rwandan
genocide of 1994. But what are the real facts? Case
Study: The French Rwanda File: 14 Aug. 2008: Case Study: Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle
East. 28 Aug. 2008: Communal violence is
continuing in the Indian state of Orissa, and since this has been going
on for some time
we investigated: Why
Orissa 5 Sept. 2008: While ‘Science
of the Apocalypse’ drew a law suit demanding that the U.S. halt
construction, The Telegraph today reports LHG Scientists get "end
of the world" death threats. Apocalypse: The History of an Idea.
Why some people believe the Large Hadron Collider
cause the end of the world. 6 Sept. 2008:
Today Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has made a landmark visit to Armenia.
Due to Turkey’s denial
of an Armenian genocide, normally such contact would take place. In fact,
it is only recently that also Germany’s historical role in the Armenian drama
is emerging.
And one reason Germany was so complacent in the matter might have been
because Wilhelm II hatched a plan where Turkey would be colonized by Germans.
Case
Study: 8 Sept. 2008: Last week a new High-tech tool for
unmasking counterfeit
wine was unveiled. Yet it was hard to be sure whether a wine
was fraudulent or not-- when even definitions of what “wine” was were not
clear. Hence we researched: The Secret Wine Report. 19 Sept. 2008: While a recent book "Alexander Dugin and Extreme Right Networks" claimed
neo-Eurasian involvement with the secret services, following a mention by
Newsweek and Der
Spiegel, the CSM now asks if Alexandr Dugin is really the new sage of the Kremlin. Russian Eurasianism:
A New Ideology of Empire? 13 Sept. 2008: Chinese Yellow Turban
rebellion, Celestial and Terrestrial Spirits, Taiping Rebellion, Boxer
Uprising, Falun Gong. Case Study: The
Politics of Qigong. 14 Sept. 2008: Five
bomb blasts leave 21 people dead in New Delhi. Attacks claimed by "Indian
Mujahadeen"
like recent attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur. Media reports said 10 people had been arrested. 17 Sept. 2008: Having carefully
watched last night’s ABC special “UFOs: Seeing is Believing” we continue
with: Investigating, UFOs Seeing is Believing. 24 Sept. 2008: Millenarian Bolshevism and Nazism, Russia's New Map, Analyses of Abimael Guzman’s Shining Path, The Paranoia of Pol Pot's Communism, the Globalization of Genocide, Mongolia and East Germany, Cuba and Bulgaria, Romania and North Korea, Eastern Germany and Soviet Central Asia, Bin Laden's conspirational paranoid , Radical Islam, the Caliphate and Iraq. Apocalyptic Politics During the 20st Century and Beyond. |
28 Sept. 2008: From New Thought to Self Improvement Books:
29 Sept. 2008: The Politically Incorrect Guide to
Psychology and Psychiatry:
4 Oct. 2008: Three recent books
“Healing, Hype, or Harm?: A Critical Analysis of
Complementary or Alternative Medicine”, “Suckers: How Alternative Medicine
Makes Fools of Us All" and “Trick or Treatment: The Undeniable Facts
about Alternative Medicine” do not only critique alternative medicine, but
tells us also a lot about its history. We investigated further: Alternative
Medicine in Context. 5 Oct. 2008: But while regulations regarding alternative therapies are now being considered, it might be time to do the same with mainstream medicine today. For example, when do new treatments stop being experimental? We all have a tendency to think that "newer is better" and "more is better" when it comes to medical care. We want to believe the marketing and media hype that describes many modest scientific steps as "lifesaving new technology." Case Study: Medical Advancements to the Test. 14 Oct. 2008: Where today saw the end of a Khmer Rouge trial, early 2009 will see the high level trial of chief interrogator Kaing Guek Eav, also known as Duch. And while the reason for the genocidal craze remained a mystery to date, we investigated and discovered the utopian longings and delusions of lost or stolen grandeur combined with delusions of persecution along with virulent conspiracy theories. The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror. 5 Jan. 2009: Having already
commented on the Israeli military incursion into the Gaza Strip which grabbed the headlines this week, we
investigated P1: Geostrategy
of Israel. 7 Jan. 2009: The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P2: Geostrategy
of the Palestinians. 10 Jan. 2009: The Problems with
Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge
Beyond Israel. 17 July 2009:
Jemaah Islamiah is most likely behind the fatal
blasts in two Jakarta hotels today. Jemaah
Islamiah and Global Jihad. 25 July 2009: China
Today. 10 Oct. 2009: Having
mentioned this more than a year ago, the BBC today now confirms
that Turkey and Armenia are preparing to sign a historic agreement
normalizing relations. 9 March 2010: Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan: 15 March 2010: The dressing-down from Israel's closest ally over the approval of
plans for new homes in Jerusalem during the US vice president's visit
continued in full force over the weekend. One solution to leave Jerusalem
undivided however would be to internationalize it. A
Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem: 10 April 2010: While it will have little effect on the
permission for the US to have a transit bases there, it is clear from the
April 7 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, that Russia is capable of creating “color
revolution”-style uprisings in countries where it wants to increase its
influence. And why China might be concerned, plus Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, The Baltic States. Continue: 23 April 2010: Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about Greece. Continue…
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Countries by Population Size
16 Jan. 2004: Bin Laden,
Al-Qaeda, and Salafi jihadism: Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck
7 Jan. 2004:
Science, race, religion, witch hunts, and the
difference between East and West: Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck
On the left myself as
an 18 year old in Afghanistan just before I walked up
and trough the Khyber Pass. On the right as an adult in Japan:
