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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence – Cybersecurity -
Cryptocurrency
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
B
Brazil
Buddhism
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China
- Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
D
Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International
Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
J
Japan
K
Kurds
L
Latinoamerica, see also South
America
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
N
Napoleon
NATO
North
Korea
Nuclear
Peril
O
Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
Q
Qatar
R
Russia - Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy
Agencies - Secret Intelligence Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
V
Venezuela
Venice
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
Z
Zionism
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
Afghanistan Still Threatens The Region And Beyond.
Why Pressure Is The Best Way.
The Forces That Could Threaten The
Taliban’s Control.
What can be said about US involvement and the current situation in
Afghanistan
What next with Afghanistan
Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan
The SA Election for
Worse and for Better.
A Sort
Of 'Out Of Africa’.
The Youthful Continent.
Africa’s Ukraine
Dilemma.
From Past To Next Fifty Years.
Deep-Rooted Factors. (Part 3)
Trade,
Colonialism And Uneven Development. (Part 2)
The New
Out Of Africa Theory. (Part
1)
Belgium’s
Africa Museum Had a Racist Image. Can It Change That?
Head of UN,
Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag
Hammarskjöld
Case Study:
The French Rwanda File:
South
Africa and AFRICOM
The
Hamitic theory of race and the role it played in the Rwandan Genocide:
Case Study P.1:
The Creation of Belgium
Case Study P.2:
The Start of Belgian Empirialism: When
Texas was to be a Belgian Colony
History of the former Belgian Congo
P.1:
Egypt in Central Africa
History of Central Africa
P.2:
King Leopold's Media
our earlier comment about Blood Diamonds
The Red Sea.
Saudi
Arabia Is On The Way To Becoming The Next Egypt.
Will
Saudi Arabia Get The Bomb?
The
Coming Arab Backlash.
The UAE And
Its Talest Building In The World.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Enter: Arab
Spring 2011
Göbekli Tepe revisited part three
Göbekli Tepe revisited part two
The world’s earliest cities and what it means for today
Ancient Globalization
In the
Beginning
Genes or Behavior?
The Archeology of Worldwide War and Peace
They Built
the First Temples?
The
Earliest States
Truth In History: Inventing Archeology
Case Study:
Archeology of the Middle East Today
Nationalism: Ancient Egypt, Judea, Armenia, Japan?
‘King
Arthur’
Click to enter:
Fringe Archeology Update
'Archeological
Fantasies' continue:
The Mother of all Theocratic States: Lemuria
September 2004, Cult Archeology: Civilization One Book (excerpt)
Neo Paganism
From Mircea Eliade to Carlos Castaneda
The Truth About Carlos Castaneda
The Myth of the Noble Savage
Reader Comment: The Myth of the Noble Savage
Celts and Druids Speaking
From N. Pennick to Celtic/Northern Literature
The Temple of a Nation, Stonehenge
And Who Owns Ancient Remains?
Neo-Shamanists and Pagans Today
Why We Never Found Atlantis
The Atlantis Syndrome P.1
The Atlantis Syndrome P.2
The Atlantis Syndrome P.3
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.1
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.2: Cocaine
Gateway to Atlantis P.3: Seven Cities, El Dorado
Gateway to Atlantis P.4: Urheimat der Arier
Cuba's Atlantis
Why, and what happened
Major Case Study:
So what really happened in Armenia
(Updated version)
Case Study:
Armenian Genocide
Crypto in China and Beyond.
AI Large Language Models.
The New Empires Of The Internet.
Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried
Case.
Bydance And TikTok.
The Test.
The New Threat.
Generative Artificial Intelligence.
How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform
The Military.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence
(AI) Part Two.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.
There Is No Time To Waste.
Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.
An Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.
The Illusion Of China’s AI Prowess.
The Battle For Brains.
But There Is A Solution.
Blockchain
Analysis.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Four.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Three.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Two.
Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.
Tackling
The 2023 Problem Of Cybersecurity.
Weaponized Artificial Intelligence.
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
Dismantling the myths
of AI Part Two
Dismantling the myths of AI Part One
The question about current medical
efficiency and that of digital authoritarianism versus liberal democracies
Introduction
P.2 The Malay Theatre
P.3 The Vietnam Theatre
P.4 The Korean Theatre
P.5 Indonesia and China Burning
P.6 1945-1950
P.7 Vietnam War and World Decolonization.
Was the Cold War inevitable?
…investigae in the following part
Introduction: Gorbachev's Last Days
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating
the Beginning of the Cold War P.1.
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating the Beginning of the Cold War
P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.1
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.3
Major Case Study:
From hot to Cold War: Asia's WWII
Genocide
In Australia.
B
Brazil
Buddhism
Bolsonaro Redux.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
Why the political climate in Brazil matters to the rest of the world
Discussion, Buddhism
A new understanding of
Buddhist's past and at least one possible future
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China
- Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
Major Case Study:
The less-known aspects of early Irish
and Scottish Nationalism
Recherche sur ce qui ne va pas avec
les Celtes
Foreign Policy for the World.
Will America and China
Heed the Warnings.
The China Sea
Syndrome.
Modi’s Tough Stance
Could Invite, not Deter, Chinese.
When
Israel Was in China.
The Cold War Between
China, Europe, and the United States.
China's Quest to Innovate.
Crypto in China and Beyond.
Lai
Ching-te’s Precarious Balancing Act.
The
World's Second Most Populous Country.
US-China Relations.
The Real Motives For China’s Nuclear
Expansion.
Importance Of The Middle Powers.
Overview Of Chinese Spy Activities.
A Problem With China's Economy.
China Today And Tomorrow.
Competition With China To Be Won.
Misconceptions About China.
China’s Economic Collision Course.
Cold War China Xi Jinping And The United
States.
President Xi's Thought.
From Moscow To China.
But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
Chinese Spy Operations.
But Where Is This Going?
Will Xi’s Military Modernization Pay Off?
Beijing Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of
Mandarin.
More Likely To React To External Threats.
The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
The End Of China’s Economic
Miracle.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
Blinded By The Fight.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
China Is Ready For A World Of
Disorder.
What Does The West Know About Xi’s China?
Why China Is Rewriting The Law Of The Sea.
The Technology Trap.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Lifelines And Chokepoints.
The Consequences Of China’s
Peace Deal.
The Consequences Of China's
Demographic Decline.
How To Spy On China.
The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
Russia And China Behind The Scenes.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
Spy Ballons TikTok And Chinse Intelligence.
Xi Jinping Preparing China For
War.
China Will Lead The Next
Technological Revolution.
Sweeping
Belt And Road Initiative.
Solidify
Global Divisions For The Coming Decades.
China Is Practicing How to Sever
Taiwan’s Internet.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
China’s Indo-Pacific Folly.
On The Leaks Of A War With China
Plus A Recension In Europe.
What The Cities Of The Future
Will Look Like.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
Detention
Camps.
The
Story of Why The Chinese Can Travel Again.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can
China Take Taiwan?
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
The
Meaning Of China’s Dangerous Decline.
Why
Saudis Don’t Want To Pivot To China.
The Nowhere Road With An Answer
To It.
It Took
Just Seven Words That NBA-China’s Viewership Approaching Pre-Banned Levels.
How China Manipulates The Media.
We
Address Why There Is No Inevitability In China's Decline To India's Rise.
China's
Economy.
Will Xi
Learn From History?
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Why XI
Might Prefer Détente.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
China’s
Past And Xi’s Future.
Reactions To China's Spy
Operations. Part 5
The Circumstances That Allow
Chinese Spy Operations To Thrive. Part 4
The Way To The White House. Part 3
The Chinese Police Service
Stations. Part 2
Chinese Spies Part One. Part 1
How To Build A Better Order.
We
Analyze The Reasons Why.
Can A
War Over Taiwan Still Be Avoided?
The Revelations Of
Document Number Nine.
Large
And In Charge
The
World According To Xi.
China's
COVID-19 Politics To The Test.
China's
Growth In Peril.
China's
Global Security Initiative.
The
Forbidden History
The
Future War Between China And The US.
Xi
Jinping And Present-Day China.
Point Of
No Return.
The
United States Does Not Need To Beat China.
Whereby
The Truth About Taiwan Is.
China
Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Nancy
Pelosi’s Visit To Taiwan.
What Is Happening Here?
Xi Unleased.
Whose
China Sea Is It?
Facing A Window Of
Vulnerability Over Taiwan.
China Could Invade Taiwan.
China’s Motivations.
Geopolitical
Consequences Of Taiwan War.
Why
Should Taiwan Be Seen As A Part Of China?
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
part two and conclusion
China's pursuit of greatness
China the Pandemic and Sovereignty
The Actual History Behind The Seven Years In Tibet With Brad Pitt.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Four.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Three.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Two.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy.
The Interconnected
Fates Of The World’s Democracies.
The Taiwan Conundrum.
Taiwan Today.
Once More The
Question Of Taiwan.
The Trouble With The South China Sea.
Taiwan Is An Important Partner.
Xi Jinping's Hawkish Forces He Can’t Control.
How To Avoid Catastrophe.
Don’t Panic About Taiwan.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can China Take Taiwan?
Major Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
What the real future of Hong Kong might look like
Mapping the new reality of Hong Kong
How China will handle
its future development
Understanding modern
China
From Vancouver to
Auckland and Hong Kong understanding the new Chinese nationalism
Will China now crush
the protests in Hong Kong?
What does it all mean
Increased friction in
the South China Sea and why
Outlook for the world
China, US, Europe, N.Korea,Venezuela, and the way forward with Iran
Today’s legacy of the
Tiananmen crisis
Unveiling China’s big
science
Is China planning to
take Taiwan by force?
Thus has China’s new
Silk Belt and Road failed? Updated
15 Feb. 2019
China’s ticking
time-bomb. Updated 4 Jan. 2019
China’s New Nationalism
China has “no historic rights” in
South China Sea: Continue…
From Chinese Yuan
adjustment to the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn
.. the Huns to their Mongol related
origin in what is now China Continue ...
The
Philippines In The South China Sea.
How concerned should we be when Chinese growth runs out?
The importance of South and East Asia
Which way will the West turn?
Left or right?
Understanding the 100 years of the current
regime in China Part Two
Understanding the 100 years
of the current regime in China
China’s multifaceted great power projection
The rivalry between America and
China in South-East Asia
Where will the China/US
competition lead the world?
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Three
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Two
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China standoff Part
One
South-East Asia between China and the US
Major Case Study:
Developmental forces in East and West as
drivers of psychological change
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese History,
Nation, Language, and Territory Part Three
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese
History, Nation, Language, and Territory
Major Case Study:
The secrets of China’s new maps unveiled
Will a coming conflict make the military
disasters of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq pale in comparison?
China’s new claim about the border with
Bhutan
China’s larger geostrategic game
The fall out from the current
crises
Are the U.S. and China headed for a Cold
War?
The 21st Century Arms Race
From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary
options? Plus
update 18 January.
Will the Standoff Lead to a Second
India-China War? With
Update 29 Aug. 2017
South
China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s
paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S.
allies
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
..China considers its territorial
waters
..We must go to war with Japan…History
as a political weapon:
China Today
The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror
The
East Asian World Order
The concept of Han Chinese
China's
New Nationalism
The Early
Chinese Empires
The true
voyages of Zheng He
There now
might be increased diplomatic pressure on Beijing to reduce its presence in
the South China Sea
Globalization and Empire:
Introduction
P.1 Indian Ocean's Business as Usual
P.2 Indian Ocean From Business to Power
Broker
Oceanic Powers, US/China: Conclusion
Case Study
Chinese Religion: Daoism:
Historical Overview of Daoism
Origin of
Daoism
Daoist
secrets of ritualized alchemy to internal Neidan meditative alchemy
Tantric ‘internal’ alchemy P.1
Tantric practice in China P.2
The Politics of Qigong:
The Taiping
Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, and Falung Gong
From Red Turban to Ming Tax Collecting
The Island of Seven Cities:
Research Report:
China Beyond Zheng Hi
From Persia to China
Research Report P.4:
China's Reinvented Historic Legacy
Case Study:
When China Woke Up to the World
Chinese and other Empires of the World
What Next
with China? P.1.
What Next with China P.2.
China Xi Jinping And The
United States.
But
It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Preparing For A Future Of
Extreme Weather.
Measure The Harm Of Climate
Change.
The search for Nextpolis
Apocalypse Never:
Why Planet earth is shutting down
A history of the end of the world
From
climate change denialism to the Brazilian rainforest fires and solutions
going forward
Here
is a blueprint as to how to approach the problems:
The
Weather as influenced by El Nino going forward
The
world going forward:
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The economy of
Colonialism:
Major Case Study:
Part one, Part two,
Part three
The economics of colonialism part three
The economics of colonialism part two
The counterfactual view that explains
colonialism
D
Dalai Lama
The Next
Dalai Lama.
The future Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
Countdown
Egypt: Why Egypt's Mursi will either resign or be sacked on 3 July
What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan
Consequences for the balance of power
between the Brotherhood and the military
Protesters Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices
Ghosts Of Empires Past.
This Is
Particularly True For Empires.
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
The Holy Roman Empire, the Reformation, and the birth of the
Netherlands
Beginnings and endings of Empires
The concept of
Han Chinese
The East
Asian World Order
Whose Enlightenment?
When Europe Fell Apart.
The Promise And Peril Of EU
Expansion.
The Truth About European
Colonialism In The New World.
How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.
Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.
Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
Time To Expand The UN Security Council.
Europe’s Real Test Is Yet To Come.
Poland 1941.
Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
On The
Leaks Of A War With China Plus A Recension In Europe.
The
German Connection.
How The
War In Ukraine Will Remake The Continent.
The
Gripping Story Of How A Plot Would Take Over Germany.
Germany’s
Unlearned Lessons.
Germany
Just Averted Its Own Jan. 6, And Maybe The Fourth Reich.
Inflation
And Economic Uncertainty.
Why This
Could Last For Years.
Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU
The
fate of Europe in 2013
Will
the European Crises soon be over?
The
Start of Europe’s fragmentation
Why the European crisis has been solved
(for
a while).
Europe’s Crises Worsening
The financial crisis Europe faces it has
not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs)
Eurozone’s Debt crisis no
longer just about Greece. Continue…
Introduction
Critical
Investigation:
Research Report: Conflict and Ethnicity
Research Report: Ethnoclass in Eastern Europe
Religion and Modern Politics P.1: Bakunin's
Christianity
Religion and Modern Politics P.2: From 'New
Right' to Habermas Today
P.1: The New World of 'Sociology'
P.2: Signor Mazzini I Presume?
P.3: Social Democrats, A Political Religion
Updated:
P.4: The 1914 Clash of Civilisations
True History of the European Community,
P.1: Its WWI Origin
True History of the European Community, P.2: Which Europe?
P.1
Globalization and Economics: A Search for the Holy Grail?
Cold War and Modern Historiography
Including
major case study "From Belgium to Kososovo and back"
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.1
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.2, Part 3-a, Part 3-b:
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Religion
P.1
The Future of Democracies Around the World
How To Understand Extreme
Right-Wing Parties.
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
Revisiting the First World
War Part Three
Revisiting the First World
War Part Two
Revisiting the First World War
Major Case Study:
A
new investigation about the First World War
Major Case Study:
Revisiting the Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
Beyond the Treaty of Versailles
Treaty of Sèvres on 10 August 2020
new complex patterns and alliances were formed (many of them in the Middle East)
…an
interesting section about “The Flemish Lion”
The tribulations and consequences of the
Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
World War I became known as the war to end
all wars
A complete timeline of what happened
Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the
Manchurian episode
A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour
Declaration
How the First World War started P.9
How the First World War started P.8
How the First World War started
P.7
How the First World War started P.6
Leading up to the First World
War P.5
Leading up the First World War P.4
The almost First World War P.3
The almost First World War P.2
The almost First World War P.1
The conspiracy theory that gave rise to
Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.4
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.3
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.2
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.1
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
The second First World War
The Real Russian Origins of the First World
War
A new investigation why the First World War
broke out
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
Southern Gaza City of Rafah.
Why it is Crucial that it Not Be.
Gantz’s Gaza Plan.
Gaza
After Gaza.
Witness To Palestine.
The Way Going Forward In Gaza.
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The
Path To A Regional Order.
Requiem for Hyperglobalization.
Deglobalization.
Is this the end of Globalization?
The
'out of Eden' peopling of the earth
… For example:
Historical Overview
Historical Truth in the Age of
Globalization, P.1
The Myth of 1492 - Historical Truth in the
Age of Globalization, P.2
The Myth of The Industrial Revolution -
Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.3
What the East Thought the West - Historical
Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.4
P.1, Mutual Contact
P.2, Violent Occupations
P.3, Broken Treaties and the Sex Trade
P.4, Disease and Changing Worlds
P.5, Controlling Landscapes
P.6, Administering People
P.7, WWII of Indigenous Populations
P.8, Enter the 21st Century
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First
Trade-Wars
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First
Multinational Companies.
"Globalization Flat or Round?"
What do Naomi Klein's "No War" have in common with with
two other recent books: "The Fire This Time: U.S. War Crimes in the
Gulf" or "The Iraq War : A Military History"?
…others are in complete denial of what is happening to them or soon
will happen
Postscript: Where did all the Money Go?
Why this complicates the reaction to the
Paris attacks:
Paris and the end times of ISIS:
…why Islamic history
The Future of the Islamic State:
The Salafist Resurgence
Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and Salafi Jihadism:
Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck
Radical Islam and Global Jihad Today
Report:
Beyond
Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East
The Islam Code P.1.
The Islam Code P.2.
Conclusion:
The Islam Code P.3.
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.1
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.2
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.3
Pictural Overview of the Middle East Today
Global Jihad P.1
Global Jihad P.2
Global Jihad P.3
Global Jihad P.4
Global Jihad P.5
Global Jihad P.6
Global Jihad P.7
Conclusion and Implications:
Global Jihad P.7
The apocalypse within:
Updated
Case Analysis:
SA in Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Chechnya
Future World Jihad P.1
Future World Jihad P.2
Future World Jihad P.3: The Nazi Connection
Future World Jihad P.4: Jerusalem’s Armageddon
Future World Jihad P.5: What Now?
…Evidence
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, plus more
Global Jihad
Case Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Major Researchproject: Future World Jihad P.5
The Quest for World Jihad: Introduction
The Quest for World Jihad P.1.
The Quest for World Jihad P.2.
…we described the significance of the Ottoman Empire in the context
of today's world jihad
…let alone an inevitable, consequence of World War 1. The Quest for World Jihad P.3
…six part investigation of British encounters with Islamic warfare
The Quest for World Jihad P.4
Bin-Laden’s Bookshelf p.1 and 2
…2006 30 Jan. al-Qaeda nr.2 on bin-Laden's Truce''
Updated
The
Background Story of 7/7/2005 in the UK:
Today's War on Terrorism
A New 'Jihad' Wave?
Pakistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.1: Egypt and the Sudan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.2: Somalia and Lebanon
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.3: Wahhabi's and Shi'ites
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.4: Iraq
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.5: Afghanistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.6: Strategic Lessons
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich"P.1
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.2
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.3
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.4
A Convergence of Militant Islam and the New Right?
fringe groups not yet mentioned
The concept of Han Chinese
The East Asian World Order
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
Who Will Lead Haiti?
How to Deal with Hamas.
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War Part Two.
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War.
The Day After.
Israel And Hamas
From Pearl Harbour On.
The True Story Of Hawaii.
2020 9
July:
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in the pacific
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in
the pacific
And Then
It Got Cold.
The Mystery Of Inequality.
The Myth of Human Origins
When humanity almost got wiped out
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
The Rising Threat Of Illiberal
Democracy.
How
Indian Voters Constrained Modi.
Bharatiya Janata Party Suffer a Setback.
Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, not
Deter, Chinese.
Modi’s Middling Economy.
The British 'Company’
And The Conquest Of India.
The Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion
People Hangs In The Balance.
Modi's New Messenger.
The Teacher To The World.
The Story How Hardeep Singh
Nijjar Was Killed In Canada, September 2023.
India’s Massive Military Restructuring.
Will India Surpass China To Become The Next Superpower?
India As It Is.
India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing.
India’s Great-Power Opportunity.
Kashmir Today.
The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
A Critical Look At Narendra Modi's
India Today.
India’s
Ruling Party Is Losing Control.
Why I Killed Gandhi.
A New Look At The History Of Partition.
Major Case
Study:
A movie, a new book, and what India stands for
today
Ladakh fighting
Major Case Study:
The Hindu right in context
Could India and China Go to War?
Kashmiri militants
What is really happening in India?
The empire within an empire that changed
the future fate of India
The impeachment of the first
governor-general of Bengal
Jammu and Kashmir
What happened with Kashmir and
why it matters
“I think it is probably a god-gifted
ability”
A concern is that it might leed to more
violence in Sri Lanka
The 10th anniversary of an assault that
raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about Kashmir
Revisiting India’s Harappan
civilization .. where the Indo-European languages came from, enter:
..."Indian
Mujahadeen" like recent
attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur
Why Orissa
Introduction
What is happening in India today?
What happened with Kashmir and why it matters.
Update
… India's tech sector following explosions
…began on Wednesday, 26 November
…repercussions in reference to Kashmir
…including that the Indian air and missile forces were
placed on war footing
Kashmir is a victim of the disputed division of
British India during the transfer of colonial power in 1947.
Partition of British India's Geostrategic
Cause.
…Through
Burma and Back
India: The Clash Within: The World's
Largest Democracy?
Deciding to go for facts rather than
fiction today:
The Eurasian Industrial
Revolution.
Bose
movie, published in: Return of the Swastika, 2007 P.1
From Japan to Burma, P.2
From Nagaland to Burma, P.1
From Nagaland to Burma, P.2
sometimes also encountered in our research
report about Europe
Politics in S.Asia P.1
Politics in S.Asia P.2 post-1966 Indira
Gandhi
Politics in S.Asia P.3 Competitive Populism
…in
Madras Henry Olcott stated…
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.1
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.2
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.3
…Fascism and Communism
Matthew Specter And Jonathan Kirshner’s New
Books.
…the rise and fall of a principle of
hierarchical sovereignty. See:
…vassalage system employed in Europe
some fifteen hundred years later. See:
S.America that led up to the League
of Nations Conference at Montevideo. See:
…most likely resulting in failure. See:
…boundaries between political units
will increase. See:
The state is not the only form of
political unit to have existed…See:
… former Yugoslavia … See:
… crisis in Yugoslavia -- the
question we next answered is why. See:
… a nascent American imperial that
represents the status quo. See:
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.1: Introduction
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.2: China and Tibet
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.3: Islamic Empires
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.4: Christians and Pagans in Europe
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.5: Protestant Reformation
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.6: From God To Proto-Nationalism
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.7: Demand for increased boundaries
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.8: Federalism and its Consequences
…disintegration of Yugoslavia…
State Behaviour in the International System P.1
…legal tradition…
State Behaviour in the International System P.2
…during 2003 Iraq Standoff.
State Behaviour in the International System P.3
The Kyoto Protocol and Africa.
State Behaviour in the International System P.4
United States, the United Kingdom,
Australia, India, and Sierra Leone.
State Behaviour in the International System P.5
Conclusion and Outlook:
State Behaviour in the International System P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.1
From Belgium to Kosovo P.2
From Belgium to Kosovo P.3
From Belgium to Kosovo P.4
From Belgium to Kosovo P.5
From Belgium to Kosovo P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.7
Introduction
Conclusion
The Iran-Israel Relationship.
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
What
Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.
Iran’s New Patrons.
The Iran Gamble.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
An Even More Intransigent Regime.
Iran’s
Question Of Legitimacy.
Iran’s
Anti-Veil Protests Have Already Succeeded.
The enduring relationship between China and Iran
What next?
What to make of the Iran protests?
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
Iran - Gaza Offensive: Why the Iranian connection will complicate
the situation
Iran threatens to block Strait of
Hormuz oil route, yet
why they will not
Military steps up plans for Iran attack?
Introduction
Modern
Iran P.1
Modern Iran P.2
The Iran Papers P.1
The Iran Papers P.2
The Iran Papers P.3
The Iran Papers P.4
The Iran Papers P.5
Conclusion: The Iran Papers
…Iran…
Iran-Chinese relationship
Iran
and its conspiracytheories
Whoever Succeeds Him Won’t
Change Course.
Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners
Choose To Escalate.
Why Iran And Israel May Not
Be Finished.
The Cascading World.
Iran's Strategy.
A Detente Option For
Iran.
The
Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.
What is to follow after Iraqi Prime
Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi's resignation
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part Two.
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part One.
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part two
Major Case Study:
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part one
The Day After.
Hamas’s Future.
Israel From A Singaporean Perspective.
The Rafah Operation.
Pressuring
Allies Not To Retaliate Against Attacks Raises The Risk Of Spiraling
Conflicts.
Hamas Part Two.
Qatar And The Hamas
Leader.
These Are The
Three Options.
Only Way Is To Defeat
Hamas.
Israel And Hamas.
Stuck
In Gaza.
Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.
|
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
|
When
Israel Was in China.
The
Iran-Israel Relationship.
Palestine: a British
Dilemma.
Regional Ties of Israel.
Where the Case Stands Now.
The Land that is Israel.
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War Part Two.
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War.
Can America’s Special Relationship With
Israel Survive?
How it Could be Done.
When The Palestinian Flag
Was Raised At Harvard.
But This Is Equally
True For The United States.
Why International Law Is
Failing.
Judicial Reforms As War Of
Words Escalates.
The Coming Arab Backlash.
Jordanian Fighter Pilots.
Dilemmas Of The Gulf
States.
So What Is It All
About?
Relations With Israel And
American Leadership.
Israel's Cyberabilities.
The New Capacity.
Witness To Palestine.
Where This War Will
Go Next?
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Gaza Makes A Nuclear
Iran More Likely.
Regional
Conflicts Resemble World War II.
Why Peace Remains
Possible.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
The Choice Cannot Be
Clearer.
Gaza Historical Role.
But Far Greater Risks May
Emerge If He Doesn’t.
Why Israel Will Remain
In Gaza.
Researching Israel’s Goals And
Strategy.
How Hamas Has United Israelis
Behind The War.
The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage
Of Convenience.
The Way Going
Forward In Gaza.
The
Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Why Israel Won’t
Change.
Protest The Netanyahu
Government.
What Does It Mean To
Defeat A Terrorist Group?
The Gaza Case.
It Is A Pattern That Is
Already Playing Out Again.
Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A
Meeting In Doha?
The No Blueprint
Assault.
The Protests In Israel.
Duelling Speeches.
The End Of Israel’s Gaza
Illusions.
What To Do About Gaza, And
What Gazans Think.
Israel Enter Gaza Imminent.
Misinformation About
The Israel-Hamas War Is Flooding Social Media.
Erdogan And The
Hamas-Israel War.
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
The
Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.
Return The Gaza Strip
To Palestinians.
A Strategy Beyond Revenge.
Why Washington
Should Restrain Israeli Military Action In Gaza.
Time To Step Back From The
Brink.
Hamas Rise To Power.
How The Conflict
In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle
East.
Gaza Redux Part One.
Hezbollah, Israel,
And Tehran.
The Why And How Of The
Surprise Attack On Israel.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The Palestinians.
Debating Israel’s One-State Reality.
Confronting A One-State Reality.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
How To Prevent A Third Intifada.
The Holy Land and its contestants
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine P.2
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine
P.1
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.2
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.1
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15
Jan.2017
The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the
Grand Mosque in Mecca: What
two million people are about to do here
The Palestinians' Real Enemies
The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups
than Hamas, wider relevance or importance
A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians
…Israeli military incursion…
P1: Geostrategy of Israel
J
Japan
To China and South Korea.
East Asia’s
Coming Population Collapse.
Tokyo
Aims To Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.
The Consensus From Canberra To Tokyo.
The Japanese Attempt to Solve the Mongol Question
Major Case Study:
Asia after China
Japans dealing
with China
Identity in Japan
Anglo-American ascendance
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
…Turkish and Japanese foreign
policies, and why: Continue...
Cold War Japan
…demanded that Japan open its doors to
foreign trade
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
Making the New Japan:
The New Japan P.1:
The New Japan P.2:
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony:
An Assessment P.1.
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony: From
Japanese to Chinese Containment?
An Assessment P.2.
K
Kurds
What next with the Kurdish conundrum?
L
Latinoamerica,
see also South America
Mexico On Edge?
Who Will Lead Haiti?
Bolsonaro
Redux.
When The
Past Does Not Go Away.
The Haitian Government Is Dependent On International Power.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
A
History Of Making Bad Situatiuations Worse.
Latin America 2022.
Democracy Or Authoritarian Populism?
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
The Red Sea.
The
Region’s Perilous Security Conditions.
The Making Of The
Middle East.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Seven.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Six.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Five.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Four.
The Middle East Gamble.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Two.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part One.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
The Problems With
The Middle East.
Part One:
How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle East.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals
Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa,
Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin America
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Pictural Overview of the Middle East
…conflict in Yemen seems anything but over:
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan. 2017
The
Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
Geopolitical
Implications
The
Shi’ite-Suni Devide
Case Study:
Shi'ite Lebanon and Hezbollah
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.1
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.2
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.3
Unknown to most we checkep up who and what Hezbollah really is
Who/What Hezbollah really is: The Larger Picture
…the new conflict between the
post-Christian West and Islam…Case Study
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict
also in the case of China…
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict Today
Israel is the 'Zion' of prophecy, part of God's plan
We frequently pointed out…
Case Study:
Pan-Arabist Media
The New Pan-Arabism P.2:
Research Report:
Saudi-Arabia
and Terrorism:
World Jihad
From
Moscow To China
|
Myanmar
- Rohingya Crisis
|
The Situation in Myanmar Today.
The
Future of Myanmar.
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Five
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Four
Major Case Study:
Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Three
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Two
Major Case Study:
Myanmar and
the looming war for its borderlands Part one
What Myanmar as a failed state may look like:
What next with Myanmar
The ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim
Rohingya communities of western Myanmar
Major
Case Study:
The
consequences of the Arakan Campaign
…in reference to faulting Myanmar
...where she is planning to deny any wrongdoing by the
armed forces and defend Myanmar against charges of ethnic cleansing or
genocide
The politics of statelessness investigation
The Rakhine/Rohingya Conundrum
What next with Myanmar and its Chinese
influence Plus update 2 February
Myanmar update
Myanmar P.6:
Mawlamyine and beyond
Myanmar P.5:
Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State
Myanmar P.4:
The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country
Myanmar P.3:
Two kinds of Monks
Myanmar P.2:
To Myitkyina and Kachin State
Myanmar P.1:
Discovering the background from where
today’s Myanmar evolved
China/US, 2013 projection for
Myanmar/Burma
Myanmar's Shame:
…the Panglong agreement
Aung San was assassinated just over five
months later.
…crisis or political uncertainty, was the military. Continue…
….most Burmese watched and waited, untroubled by the small flurries
of activity among Europeans. Continue...
…inter-communal hatred versus the Karen and others. Continue…
…and thus contributing to the confusion. Continue…
…Asia weighed heavily on the minds of the British. Continue...
…as they had been doing for years. Continue…
…or minority tribal leaders to hold out for too much. Continue...
…of a favorable conjunction of the stars. Continue...
…Burma soon had all but become one of the first 'failed states’. Continue...
The return of Japan post WWII. Continue...
N
Napoleon
NATO
North Korea
Nuclear Peril
Enter Napoleon:
The End of NATO?
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
How To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.
Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius.
The Next Few Years Will Be Crucial.
NATO’s East Deterring Russia.
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
The Leaked Documents.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Explaining The NEW NATO Strategic Concept.
What the situation looks like going forward
The Coming North Korean Crisis.
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Korea Model.
Today's Situation In Korea.
Major
Case Study:
The
Korean War in context
The news from N.Korea
The USA “ready to fight tonight” claim
Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or
intervene P.1
....N. Korea … Continue…
What Proliferation
Means For Global Security.
The Return Of Nuclear
Escalation.
Confronting The New Nuclear Peril.
O
Oman
Major
Case Study:
Charting
the future of Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
The Pacific Space.
The five days that made Pearl Harbours as
a key for the worldwide war.
Part Eight Can a potential future Pacific War be
avoided?
Part Seven Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Six Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part Five Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Four Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Three Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Two Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part One Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Imran Khan’s Long March.
The 10th anniversary of
an assault that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was
about Kashmir
Predicaments of
Pakistan in Afghanistan
For an
overview of Pakistan enter here:
Introduction:
…to support an Islamic State in Pakistan
…controlled by British political
officers with the help of tribal chieftains...
Continue P.1
…Blood and chaos were
everywhere."
Continue P.2
…some ways to think about territory,
history, and ethnic belonging. Continue P.3
…key theories of nationalism.
Continue P.4
Who Made Pakistan? P.5: The Militarization of Pakistan
P.6 India's Backlash
…under
civil/military rulers before turning Islamic during the last decade and a
half. Continue P.7
With the case of Indonesia, India, and Pakistan…
Case Study:
The
Politics of Qigong
Rationality
and progress
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
So what to do about bias?
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Three
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Two
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part One
So what is with Psychological Science?
Here are eight ways how we can form more
accurate views of the world
The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help
books and Happiness
The Politically Incorrect Guide to
Psychology and Psychiatry
From New Thought to Self
Improvement Books
Putin And The Right
Q
Qatar
Two
longtime rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse
Case Study:
Qatar's
master strategy or opportunism?
R
Russia – Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.
To Sow that Fear in Moscow.
Russia’s Quest for a Gateway to Iran and the
Middle East.
To Run the World.
Putin Threatens the West with
"Special Ammunition."
Russia’s Pro-Putin Elites.
Foreign Propagandists.
The Russian Volunteer Corps.
The Anti-Western Club.
The Five Futures Of Russia.
Too Many European Politicians Are
Failing To Confront Russia.
Like In The First World War?
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
What The West Still Gets Wrong
About Russia’s Military.
What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.
The Wagner Paramilitary Group.
Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.
The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The War Of Endurance.
Blinded By The Fight.
Crimes Without Punishment?
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Treacherous Path To A Better Russia.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
Prepare For A Brutal War.
1984 In Russia Today.
Stalin’s Secret Force.
The Latest News.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
The
Coming Russia Disintegration.
The
Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
Russia
And China Behind The Scenes.
The
Limits Of Economic Warfare.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Russia That Might Have Been.
Looting
As A Potential War Crime.
How Long
Can This Not-Quite-Total War Be Sustained?
Russia’s
Anti-Jewish Dimension.
Europe
And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
Russian
Patriotic Death Cult.
Russia
Is Losing The War.
Can
Moscow Learn From Its Failures In Ukraine?
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
Why The
Sanctions In Russia Are Already Biting Hard.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
The War
Will Likely Continue Until The End Of 2023.
To
Prepare For Russia’s Collapse.
Russia's
Target Of 300,000 Additional Troops.
The
Russian Crisis.
To Know
Stalin And What Followed.
To Recognize The Stakes.
We Have To Prepare For Russia’s Defeat But Also Its Return.
A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself From The Inside Out.
In 1954, Crimea Was Transferred From Russia To Ukraine.
A Re-Assessment.
Why Policymakers Around The World Should Take Note.
Revisiting the Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Four.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Three.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Two.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part One.
What should not be taken off the table when
talking with Putin
We show in seven maps how Ukraine came about
Major Case
Study:
Putin Has Long Tried to Balance Europe. Now He’s Working to Reset It
What the situation looks like going forward
Ukraine today
Why Putin believes Ukraine was given to Russia
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
Why Putin claims that most of Ukraine “was given”
to Russia
Gorbachev’s reforms
Imperial Russia and Qing China
Revealing Harbin’s
interesting Russian history
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.7
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.6
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.5
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.4
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.3
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.2
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.1
The Svalbard/Spitsbergen Saga
Major
Case Study:
Was the Cold War inevitable?
A German and British plot to take the last Tsar
Ukraine as a test case
Major
Case Study:
When
Spies invaded Russia P.6.
British spycraft in Bolshevist Russia
Major
Case Study:
When
Spies invaded Russia P.5.
What must develop into a civil war
Major Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.4.
How North
Russia evolved into its military phase
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.3.
The alleged
protecting of supplies propaganda
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.2.
To mold
irregular warfare into a method which honored the Imperial myth
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.1
Major
Case Study:
Why is Ukraine so important to
Russia
From Rasputin to little known aspects of
Nicholas’s II abdication and the situation in Russia
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.2: The
British Banking scheme to control Russia’s economy and the Allied
intervention
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.1: here
the lesser known aspects surrounding the events of 1918
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.4: From White
resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.3: The rise and
fall of Komuch’s People’s Army
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.2: The
Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.1: Why and how the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian
railway
Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in
Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine
…Russia vis a vis a US plane: We
tell you why it happened
Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European
extreme right wing parties
The main question now is whether Russia
will push back with what power it has left or find a way to compromise with
this shifting worldview
Case Study:
The ‘decline of the West’ and a
look behind Putin’s new Eurasianism
Intelligence scoop of what is happening
with the Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:
Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:
Enter the Unfolding Crises in Europe and
the Ukraine/Crimea:
The Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the
last days of the Soviet Union
…Russia wants to increase its
influence. …China might be concerned, plus… Continue:
Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of
Empire?
Introduction
The Next European Battleground?
Russia’s Geostrategic
Predicament and Power Today P1
Finding the West
…following part
Introduction: Gorbachev’s Last Days
Case Study:
Russia’s Move Towards the Right
Global Jihad Case
Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Research Report:
Russia’s
Geostrategic Roots Today
European policy that is about to change now …Comment
…more questions than answers.
Comment P.1
Comment P.2:
…transforming the face of Eurasia
Predicting the next half Year:
Russia’s New Map: The Third Rome
A History
of Eurasianism
The New Map of Russia
Russia’s
New Map P.2: A History of Panslavism
Russia’s
New Map P.3
World
Revolution: The Roots of Modern Russia
How the
End of the Cold War Occurred
After the
Cold War: America over the Brink
What Led To The Dissolution of
The Soviet Union 1991
Central Asia: Why The Great Game
Heats Up
Why The Great Game Heats Up P.2: Azerbaijan
Putin Threatens the West with
"Special Ammunition."
Russia’s Pro-Putin
Elites.
Putin And The Right.
Bolshevik Rule.
Too
Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.
What Does Putin Want?
What Putin And Kim Want From
Each Other.
What It Will Take To Break
Putinism’s Grip.
Why There Can Be No Negotiations
With Putin.
The Beginning Of The End For
Putin?
Crisis Abates, But Questions Remain.
Is Worse To Come From Putin?
How Putin Revived Stalinism.
Dictator Without Borders.
Putin’s Forever War.
Putin, The Suspect.
Putin Remains In Day-To-Day
Government.
Sanctions Can Help End Putin’s Imperial Pretensions If The West
Keeps Its Nerve.
The War
Started Due To Putin's Policy Failure.
War in
Ukraine Has Revealed About Putin’s Regime.
Indications
Putin Decided To Give The Missile That Downed MH17.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
Calling
Out Putin's Excuse.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
The
Polish Incident That Is Changing It.
We Investigate The
Nonproliferation Conundrum.
Why
Putin Gladly Tells You Is No Khrushchev.
What Is
Needed For The Russian Economy To Grow.
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Putin And Stalin.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
What To
Do About Putin.
We
Assess The Possibility Of Regime Collapse.
The
Outcome Of Significant Wars Ultimately Comes Down To Attrition.
The Way
Forward For Russia.
Putin
Puts Faith In The Poor Man's Weapon.
The War
Might Last Another Year And What That Means.
Our
Source In The Kremlin Speaks Up.
What
Happens To Russia’s Periphery.
Why
Today It Becomes More Likely Putin Will Lose This War.
A Fear
Greater Than Putin.
The End Of Putin’s Bargain With The People.
Climbing The Escalation
Ladder.
How To
Build A Better Order.
Policy For A World In
Crisis.
Putin's Private Army.
Why Is There Little Hope For A Quick
Rebound.
Wait For The Tide To Turn.
They Will Be Front And Center In Domestic And
Global Politics.
Naturally, There Can Be No Excuse, Only Ruthless
Punishment.
Assessment Of How The Russia-Ukraine
War Is Progressing.
Peter Took Russia Into The Future. Putin Pushing It
Back To The Past.
Russians Are In For A Rude Awakening This Fall.
There Is A Risk Of Serious Harm.
China Needs To Reach An
Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Bad Timing Of Global
Agriculture And Food Supply Chains.
Russia’s Security Concerns
And Allay Its Anxieties.
China’s Motivations.
Fantasy Is Not History.
When The Economic Recovery Comes.
Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion Hinges On The Coming
Battle Of Kherson.
Convicted For The Usurpation Of Power.
This Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.
Russias Fifth Service.
The Ukraine/Russia War.
Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.
Time For New Trade Agreements.
What Next With The World Energy Situation.
Whose Middle East?
What If The War In Ukraine Spins Out Of Control?
Can Austria Stay Neutral?
Explaining How Far NATO Can Go.
Western Fears Of Putin.
Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.
The Case For Diplomacy.
He Has None.
This Is Not A Victory.
The Key To Victory In Ukraine.
A
Need To Build A Better World Order.
A Global Cold War.
Part Eight
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Seven
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Six
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Five
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Four
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Three
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Two
From 1917 To 2022.
From 1917 To
2022.
The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.
Can Putin
Survive?
Why The
Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight In Ukraine.
Why Do Russian Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?
Why Ukraine Reached A Pivotal Moment.
Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.
The Why Of The Road To War.
The Putin Challenge.
Putin’s Challenge To The West.
Why Putin’s Ukraine War Is An Inflection Point For The West.
Why It Is Too Soon For A Lasting Diplomatic Settlement.
What Candidate Status Would Mean.
Russia’s Early Failures Doesn’t Make It Less Dangerous.
Russian Army Would Have To Collapse.
The End Of Climate Policy.
Why Does China Neither Endorse Nor Condemn Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s War?
What
The G7 Foreign Ministers Will Do.
Belgian Lessons.
What Will The Consequences Of Mobilization Be?
The Kremlin’s Questionable Worldview.
Understanding The Kremlin’s Worldview.
Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part One.
The Re-Invention Of History And National Identity.
Why The War In Ukraine Is Shifting.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Three.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Two.
Understanding Putin’s Worldview Part One.
The Wargame.
How Serious A Threat Is Putin.
The War About Food Supplies.
Infiltrating The Highest Level Of Government.
Meanwhile, Russians Are Fleeing Their Country In Doves.
Revealing Putin’s Inconsistencies While Striving For A New
Empire.
Geostrategy Of Russia.
Putin’s Victory Speech.
The Murder Of General Wrangel An Equally Famous
Ballerina.
The Atomic Option.
A “New” War, Twenty Years In The Making.
Exposure To Russian Intelligence Services.
Major Case Study:
The Mongolia Factor.
Moscow’s Suez Moment.
What
Putin Has In Mind Next.
Who Is The Tsar Of Russia.
Life For The Tsar.
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy Agencies - Secret Intelligence
Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
The Special Operations Executive In France
And Elsewhere.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Six.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Five.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Four.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Three.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Two.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part One.
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences
Part Two
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences Part One
The post-WWII new order part two
The post-WWII new order part one
The old order is crumbling, and a new order
is rising
Axis states understood they
settled the moral low ground.
The Second World War created the
conditions for transforming Europe and the entire global geopolitical order.
Creating a new
world order part one.
How the various countries
justified WWII Part One.
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Four
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Three
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Two
Major Case Study: From the Manchurian Incident to
Word War II Part One
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Sixteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fifteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fourteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Thirteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Twelve
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Eleven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Ten
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Nine
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Eight
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Seven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Six
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Five
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Four
… Trianon (1919 and 1920)
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Three
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Two
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part One
How Britain hoped to avoid war
with Germany in the 1930s
Major Case Study:
The Vatican archives and World War II
When Britain gave Hitler the
go-ahead
Hitler’s Bolshevism and the myth of the
Jewish Conspiracy
Major
Case Study:
London, Madrid, and the creation of
Washington, D.C.
Case Study:
S.America P.1: Overview
Case Study:
S.AmericaP.2: Economic Musings
Case Study:
S.America P.3:
The Road to Independence
Case Study:
S.America P.4:
Che and Castro
Case Study:
S.America P.5:
From Chile to Brazil
…and distribution networks: Research Report
Hugo Chaves
Anonymous activists threaten to
expose Mexican drug cartel secrets, here the
context:
A Nuclear Collision Course In South Asia.
Introduction
... traders that "turned
sovereign". And Burke sought the impeachement of the companies
Governor, Warren-Hastings...
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First Trade-Wars
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First Multinational Companies
So let us
start with the most important one, language
… a gendered/racial categorization of the
Indian populace by the British gave rise to several stereotypes like the
manly Sikh, the devious Maratha, and the loyal Gurkha
…a reaction to the warfare 'with France in
Europe', that 'The British Company' proceeded to involve itself more
actively with 'local politics.' This becomes particularly apparent when one
doesn't only consult British, but also French sources
Hindutva
The Secret
Backround of the Kashmir Problem
…overview of Atlantis and
Lemuria:
'World
Hindu Council'
Bengal: Making a New Hinduism:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.1:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.2
Politics or Culture?: Hindu and Muslim
Fundamentalism Today
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: The Anti Aryan Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Seek Mason, Will Travel
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Are you a Sikh?
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Polynesian Aryans
Reformed Aryans, in East
and West: The Orion Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Aryan Christianity
our overview about India
|
Spy Agencies – Secret Intelligence
Services
|
The Spy that Defeated the Nazis.
The Agents Who Risked All
Behind Nazi Lines.
The Noor Inayat Khan
Story.
The Spying Program.
How To Spy On China.
The Harrowing Story Of A Double Agent.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
Codename
Madeleine.
The
Secretive PWE Political Warfare Executive.
The
Inside World About Spy Agencies Revealed.
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies
part three
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies part two
Important
Case Study:
Meet the new world today's spy agencies
|
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
|
The
Path To A Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
U.S. Strikes Targets
In Syria.
Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis.
Time To Move On.
What Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
..conflict in Yemen seems anything but over
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If
there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there
isn't anymore
Investigating the never-ending Great War
As suggested
by me earlier … International
rivalry and the battle for Syria
...Aleppo, question is for how long
…entered the Ramouseh Artillery
Base… Who
are the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond
.. Syrian Civil War…The
make or break battle currently underway, rebels appear to be losing
FM denounces "cynical game" of
Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow
How close is ISIS to defeat, and will
Turkey invade Syria?
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
Fighting in Syria seen problematic for
Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under discussion
Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation
Will Look Like:
The Sunni-Shia struggle
The Arab World in Transition 2013
Why the War in Syria will not end with the
removal of the al Assad regime
Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical Weapons, yet
why we should still be worried
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Upcoming turmoil in Asia?
Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting
the course of future events
Background forms the rebel Free Syrian Army
supply lines in Lebanon
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
The Perils of the Taiwan Strait.
Major
Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
Is China planning to take Taiwan by force?
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand, China, And The US.
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
Thailand and the Political and Economic Volatility
in Important Markets
The insurgency in
Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas
Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.
Turkey In Context.
Will Erdogan Stay in Power?
Erdogan’s
Foot-Dragging On Sweden And Finland Is Causing Headaches For Western
Leaders.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
Turkey in context today
Conclusion
about what is really happening in Turkey
Turkey's
government fears second coup
Turkey’s
new Sultanate
Why
Turkey shot down the Russian Jet
… more
than a year ago
…Turkey
and Armenia…
Turkish bid for EU membership …. today:
Introduction
Evolving Turkey P.1
Evolving Turkey P.2
Evolving Turkey P.3
Evolving Turkey P.4
Evolving Turkey P.5
…aligned itself
…former Islamist
Conclusion and Bibliography
Case Study:
…Turkish and Japanese
foreign policies, and why. Continue...
Erdogan’s Tumultuous
Leadership.
Erdogan
And Hamas.
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World
Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.
How to Create a Durable Peace in Europe.
Stop Fearing Victory.
American Aid Alone
Won’t Save Ukraine.
The Way Forward In
Ukraine.
Obstacles To Diplomacy In
Ukraine.
What NATO Membership Will
Require.
Winning The
Battle But Losing The War.
Why The War Might Defy
Expectations.
Preparing For American
Abandonment.
The Quiet Transformation.
The Ukraine-Taiwan
Tradeoff.
All This Could
Encourage Further Adventurism.
Negotiations Over
Territory.
The Missing Escalation In
Ukraine.
Will The West Abandon Ukraine?
What Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.
Ukraine And Next.
Back In The Ukraine Trenches.
The War Of Endurance.
Postwar Ukraine.
End In Sight For The Ukraine War.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
How The West Can Secure
Ukraine’s Future.
What Really Happened To The Kakhovka Dam?
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Vexing The Ukraine War On The Ground.
How Ukraine Learned To Fight.
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive.
A Loophole In The Law.
Ukrainian War Going Forward.
Ukraine Today.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
Waiting On Weapons.
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
A Plan For Getting To The
Negotiating Table.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Ukraine’s
Determination.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Conversations When Ukraine Wins.
Fortifying
Ukraine.
Make The
Position Of The Russian Military Untenable.
Key To
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
The
Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
An Even
More Intransigent Regime.
Ukraine’s
Coming Electricity Crisis.
What
Ukraine Needs To Liberate Crimea.
Breakthrough
In Ukraine.
Kennan
On Ukraine.
Reading
Like A Spynovel This is What Happened.
Why Some
Wars Don’t End.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
How The US Can Help.
The Situation Ukraine Is Facing This
Winter.
We Analyse What The Result Of The
Airstrikes Will Be.
Putin's Atomic Gamble.
Game-Changer For Current And Future
Conflicts.
How Ukraine Can Take Back All Its
Territory.
Ukraine As A Poison Pill For Putin.
Putin’s Eventual Replacement.
Putin Threated Nuclear Response.
The UNGA Meeting.
The Nuclear Strike Aimed At Shock?
Mobilize, Retreat, Or Something In Between?
Why Support For Ukraine Will Withstand
Russian Pressure.
Is Ukraine Going To Win This War?
Africa’s Ukraine Dilemma.
Xi Jinping's
Strategic Predicament And The View From Washington.
From Ukraine
to Taiwan.
Putin's Victory
Speech.
How
The World Lost Faith In The UN.
Palestine: a British Dilemma.
The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.
The Red Book.
Royalty And The Nazi's
Part One.
The Secret History Of The
Glastonbury Festival.
Sunak Hopes To Mend Fences With Europe.
The UK Today.
Why The House Of Windsor Will
Ultimately Fall.
Can Sunak Save Britain?
The
Limits Of Monarchy.
The UK
Can Be Leading By Supporting.
The rise and fall of the Thomas Cook Group
Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat,
Heightening Chances of an Election
Boris is back…Today’s
cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however
The next steps of Theresa May
"We're out", well sort of. The
Implications and Germany's nightmare:
What will happen after Brexit:
Their Words Should be Taken Seriously.
Will America and China Heed the Warnings.
But He Cannot Fire Them.
Where the Case Stands Now.
Can America’s Special Relationship With
Israel Survive?
How One
Man Seduced the U.S. Navy.
The End of NATO?
The Ongoing
Investigation.
Washington’s Fears
About Energy Markets.
Why U.S.
Credibility And Resolve Is At Stake.
The Tiktok Ban Shows How
Decisions End Up Rushed.
Why TikTok Needs To Get Out
Of The Hands Of The Chinese Government.
Showing An Industrial
Strategy.
Blinken-Xi Talks Also
Highlight Continued Areas Of Disagreement.
The Patron’s Dilemma.
The Politicization Of
The U.S. Military.
Japan Defense And China
Springboard.
US New World War.
Explaining America’s Global Role.
The
New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.
Bracing For Trump 2.0.
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?
How To Boost Cooperation.
The Formula For Managing Migration.
The Overlooked Influences On Donald Trump.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Spread Too Thin?
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
A Plan For Getting To The
Negotiating Table.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
The Leaked Documents.
America Fill The Missile Gap.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How Elites Misread Public Perceptions Of The War.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
China Is A Paper Tiger.
Technology Defines The Future Of
Geopolitics.
Does Technology Win Wars?
Rattled By China, The U.S., And Its Allies Are Beefing Up Defenses
In The Pacific.
How
Biden White House Operated Under Cloak-And-Dagger Secrecy.
Far-Right
Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
America
Is Back.
U.S. To
Boost Military Role In Philippines As Fear Of Taiwan Conflict Grows.
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
Have Americans, As Is Claimed,
Been Conned?
Is A Major War To Come?
The United States Does Not
Need To Beat China.
A candid look at the why two atomic bombs
What the situation looks like going forward
Revisiting the Paranoid Style in American
Politics
The election could be a highly fluid situation
The Cost of Chaos review
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part two
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part one
Major Case Study:
The origins of Trumpology
Why Washington should push for a resolution
to a disastrous war
The racist lie that is fueling the US
terrorist attacks
Includes update 20 April 2019: Why Robert Mueller is ending his report
How Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati officials
influenced Trump to strike a bargain with Putin
What Robert Mueller Knows
The Trump/Russia investigation
what can be said today
Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making
of Eastern Europe
American Ascendance P.1: Asia in the New
Spatial Order
American Ascendance P.2: The China Blockade
American Ascendance P.3: The Japan Blockade
American Ascendance P.4: Opium War
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.1
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.2
…over the course of the Mexican
Revolution
...glaring
misadventures in Iraq
America at a Crossroads P.1:
The Truth about the Cold War
America at a Crossroads P.2:
Superpower Politics
America at a Crossroads P.3:
Anti-Americanism
America at a Crossroads P.3:
The Last
'WWIII'
Possible Future Conflicts from a US Point of View
V
Venezuela
Venice
The worsening situation will make 2015 a
crucial year for Venezuela:
The history of Venice beyond 2021
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part three
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part two
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact
Requiem
for Hyperglobalization.
The Hidden Driver of Modern History.
Sixty-Eight Countries Will Hold Elections.
Deglobalization.
The Farmer Who Feel the Heat First.
Infrastructure
Is Remaking Geopolitics.
The Rest Of The World.
Why It Will Not
Surprise.
The Rising
Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting World.
The World Outside The Great Powers.
Why It’s So Hard To Forecast
Authoritarian Aggression.
How To Reduce The
Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.
There’s No Such Thing As A Great Power.
The State Of The World.
The World To Come.
Why The World Still Needs Trade.
Political Violence In Authoritarian Societies.
The Defence Of Global Order And Address Global Crises.
Make The Center Vital Again.
How To Survive A Great-Power Competition.
Managing A Multipolar World.
How The Fight For Resources Is Upending Geopolitics.
Tackling The Opportunity For Change.
Counter
Autocracy.
2023
Anual Forecast.
The
World Has Changed.
Those
Who Cannot Remember The Past Are Condemned To Repeat It.
Understanding The World By Means
Of A Geopolitical Approach.
This
Highlights A Socio-Economic Challenge That The World Needs To Tackle Before
It Gets Worse.
The
Long-Term Trend Is Concerning.
What To
Expect In 2023.
Remaining Robust Enough When
Malign Actors Are Denied Access.
The
World Faces A Zeitenwende.
Let Us
Be The Last Generation To Do So.
The Profound Economic And Financial
Shift.
The Direction Of The World Economy.
The
Global Effects Going Forward.
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
Economics and real-time revolution
From East to West and back to
East?
A few countries to look out for the next
six months
How the end of an age is not the same as
the end of history
Major Case Study:
The outlook of the world in 2020
What 2020 will bring P.2
What 2020 will bring P.1
From new economics to new
politics
Major Case Study:
North and South Korea, China, Russia, the
US, Iran, Mexico, India, Central and South America, Turkey, and so on
A look at other developments going forward
in 2017
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin
America
Apocaliptic Politics During the 20st
Century and Beyond
World Finance
Introduction
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Stock Markets and Economics
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Inshurance Risks
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of the Housing Bubble
Following an assessment of current finance crash;
the international situation,
Europe, China/Japan and S.America, plus Korea…Continue...
The
Genetics of Finance: Putting the Credit Crisis in Perspective
|
WWI, see also First World War
|
The tribulations and
consequences of the Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was
pivotal to the creation of the modern Middle East
Shantung the Versailles
Treaty and the Manchurian episode
A new investigation why
the First World War broke out
The Real Russian Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.1
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.2
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.3
What led to the First
World War P.4
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’,
Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.2:
The Arab question and the
‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad
and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the
‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.6:
The Paris Peace
Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.6:
The importance of oil, the
‘Arab question’, and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian
issue in Lebanon today
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.8:
British rule, Arab
Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
WWI's Religious Ideology
From Colonization to de-Colonization
…newly researched documents...took this a step further
From Shandong to Versailles:
China's participation in the First World War
Why We
were Entering a Century of Genocide
The
second First World War
The conspiracy theory
that gave rise to Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the
famous Article 231
Investigating the
never-ending Great War
|
WWII, see also Second World War
|
From Hitler to Stalin P.1
From Hitler to Stalin P.2
From Hitler to Stalin P.3
From Hitler to Stalin P.4
From Hitler to Stalin P.5
The Nazi Documents P.1: The Russian Connection
The
Secret War Between the Allies:
The Final Secret of WWII: The Murder of
Hitler
The Secret Archive
Hess/Hitler overture to England
The Mistake of Peter Longerich
Alternative Histories of the 20 to 21
Century we start with the making of WWII today
…the Cold War: Continue:
…Comment
Asia and Cold War
The
Vatican’s War P.1
The
Vatican’s War P.2
The
Vatican’s War P.3
From Belgium
to Kosovo Research
The
Vatican’s War P.4
The
Vatican’s War P.5
The
Nazi/Vatican Connection P.6
The
Valkyrie Debate P.1
The
Valkyrie Debate P.2
The
Valkyrie Debate P.3
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.1
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.2
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.3
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.4
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.5:
Conclusion
Z
Zionism
The way to Zionism Part Three
The way to Zionism Part Two
The way to Zionism
|
Esoterica
going Mainstream
|
Esotericism,
Freemasonry, and Conspiracy
…main aspects of Western esoteric traditions
have their foundations in antiquity…
Case Study:
From Numerology to Magic and Esoteric Christianity
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.1
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.2
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.3
New History of the Hermetica P.1: Hermes
Times Three
New History of the Hermetica P.2: The
Sabian Myth
New History of the Hermetica P.3: Middle
East Disporea
The Rosicrucians
Freemasonry
The Occult Revival in America P.1
The Occult Revival in America P.2
Alleged New Age Religions
the
Goetheanum
Harry Potter 6 and Gnosis: The Search for
the Higher Self
…founder of Scientology L.R. Hubbard to
create a 'moonchild' by means of 'Magic'…
first ever history of this idea rooted as it is, in Paracelsian
Magic
Reincarnation: The Invention of a Modern
Myth
New Age or Emerging Religions?
The 1920's
Vinland Map - A Legend is Born
Alternative
History books:
The Nazi Occult Myth
ABC News UFO's: The Day After
UFO's as Conspiracy Theory
From Esotericism to Pop Culture
From Esotericism to Pop Culture P.2
Update
From
Aleister Crowley to Scientology
Case Study:
New Religious Movements –
Rudolf Steiner/Waldorf Schools P.1 of 2
We successfully questioned the term "Gnostic" and
"Gnosticism"
Dan Brown's two recent books
Case Study:
New Religious Movements -
Spiritualism
P.1
Case Study:
New Religious Movements:
Spiritualism
P.2
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.3
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.4
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.5
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.6
P.1: The Making of Spiritism
P.2: Christian Spiritist Conversion
P.3: To England Now
P.4:
Occult Orders
P.5: Taming the Wild Spirits
P.6: Revelation of the Revelation
P.7: Text Related Occult Conversions
P.8: An Occult Sociological Profile
P.9: Phenomena on Trial
P.10: Theosophical Fights
P.11: Nazis and The Occult
P.12: Cults of the Self
P.13: The Esoteric
P.14: The Never Ending Mystery?
P.15: Psychic Androginity
P.16: Cosmological Searches
Comment: The Forgotten Monarchy Discovered
From Robert Anton Wilson to the Da Vinci Code Prank: The Californian
Illuminati
Introducing
H.P. Blavatsky
H.P.Blavatsky
and her 'Masters' of the Theosophical Society
Search
For Astral Projection: The Investigation
The
Hodgson Report
The
Hodgson Report P.2
The
Hodgson Report P.3
Finding
the Theosophical Masters and Mahatmas
Blavatsky's
Final Work
After
Blavatsky P.1: Krishnamurti, the Fashioning of a Mahatma
After
Blavatsky P.2: Fashioning the Future Race
Race and Literary
Nationalism
Enter
Scientology:
Investigating,
UFOs Seeing is Believing?
The
Secret of the Cabalah/ Qabbalah
New History
of Jewish Kabbalism
Establishing the Christian Kabbalah, P.1: Rewriting Frances A. Yates
Establishing
the Christian Kabbalah, P.3: F.M. van Helmont
Zosimos
of Panopolis and the Book of Enoch
While somnambulist ventures like the
Course in Miracles have been well researched…
The Key of Solomon P.1: The Making of Witchcraft
The Key of Solomon P.2: Occult Science
The Key of Solomon
P.3: Magical
Revival
Conspiracy
Theories P.1
Conspiracy
Theories P.2
Conspiracy
Questions or Answers?
The
Rise and Fall of the Silver Shirts
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.1
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.2
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.3
Neoplatonism, Philology and Nationalism
Geschichtliche Entwicklung des Ariermythos
The True Story Behind "The Aquarian Gospel" Movie:
Conspiracy
Theories
DaVinci
Code Matrix
From
Invented Witchcraft To The Carlos Castaneda's legacy
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman:
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman P.2:
Inventing
The Mormon Tradition
Major Case Study:
Paganism and Early Christianity in N. Europe P.2
The
Positive Thinking Movement P.2
Case Study:
Ungern P.1: The Revolution
Self Help Books as Popular Culture: Introduction
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.1
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.2
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Eric
Vandenbroeck world-news-research.com
12
July: A grand bargain can only work if Israel
and the United States align their strategies. The United States must allow
Israel to confront emerging threats and strengthen the region’s security
architecture. Israel, meanwhile, must help the United States shift its
focus and resources toward higher-priority theaters, such as the
Indo-Pacific. The Post-Iranian Middle East: America and Israel
Can Build a New Regional Order.
11
July: Bangladesh’s ousted Sheikh Hasina charged
with crimes against humanity. Former Leader, Who Is Hiding in India, Indicted
Over Deadly Crackdown on Anti-Government Protests Last Year.
11
July: Mobilizing frozen Russian assets for
rebuilding Ukraine while also integrating the country into Western supply
chains, protecting its rare mineral resources, and anchoring it firmly and
irreversibly within the Euro-Atlantic economic and security architecture.
Anything less risks repeating the aftermath of the 2008 war in Georgia,
when the West’s desire for calm rewarded Russian aggression and left a
Western-bound democracy out in the cold. Georgia’s Warning for Ukraine: A Cease-Fire Alone Would
Hardly End Russia’s Quest for Dominance.
11
July: The best way to prevent a future war in
Europe is to ensure Moscow never dares to start one. This will require
Washington and its European partners to design a careful and coordinated
handover plan. The United States must inform its partners exactly where any
new gaps will appear, well in advance of their emergence. The United States
must inform its partners exactly where any new gaps will be, well in
advance of their appearance. How Russia Could Exploit a Vacuum in Europe: The Dangers
of a Rapid Drawdown in American Forces.
10
July: Rich countries around the world are
watching one another for policy models. If the Supreme Court’s June 23
decision on deportations to South Sudan opens the floodgates from the
United States, it will likely start a global race to the bottom. The Sordid History of
Offshoring Migrants: Trump Is Only the Latest to Embrace a Costly and
Immoral Tactic.
10
July: Amid the ongoing
exchange of fire between Israel and the Houthis, marked by ballistic missiles
from Yemen and Israeli airstrikes on Red Sea ports, a surprising detail has
come to light. UN Officials Have Expressed Frustration Over the
Situation.
Macron
is the first European leader to visit the UK since Brexit:
10
July: Although U.S. firms excel in software and
services, areas that are also expected to make significant productivity
gains as a result of AI adoption, the United States has ceded ground to
China in recent decades in physical industries, including manufacturing,
logistics, energy, and infrastructure. With its state-driven industrial
policy and massive manufacturing base, China can deploy AI at scale within
these sectors and might unleash dramatic productivity gains that lead it to
finally surpass the U.S. economy. The Real AI Race America Needs More Than Innovation to
Compete With China.
9
July: America’s gun violence is driving agony and
contempt among its allies and handing easy talking points to its rivals,
both of which erode the United States’ advantages. With his cuts to
cultural diplomacy, U.S. President Donald Trump shows little overt interest
in retaining the United States’ soft-power edge. But his administration
remains intensely interested in making U.S. exports successful, both for
the sake of American companies’ bottom lines and for the United States’
reputation as a maker and purveyor of cutting-edge goods. Gun violence has
become a cutting-edge U.S. export - but one that will harm, not help, its
positive balance of power. If U.S. policymakers do not take gun violence
more seriously, they will only ensure that this balance goes further off
kilter. American
Gun Violence Goes Global: How Its Spread Is Distorting and Diminishing U.S.
Soft Power.
9
July: Elon Musk's Grok Chatbot Goes Full Nazi, Calls
Itself ‘MechaHitler.' But We Have Seen This Before.
9
July: Whether or when the country will obtain
the ultimate deterrent remains an open question. But what is clear is this:
Iran is unbowed and unlikely to behave differently than it did before. That
means Israel may decide to strike again. Iran could swiftly retaliate. The
conflict between these parties is far from over, and the Middle East should
expect more turbulence ahead. The Islamic Republic’s New Lease on Life: How the U.S.-Israeli
Strikes Empowered the Iranian Regime.
8
July: North Korea knows that it lucked out the
last time around and didn’t end up paying a hefty price for walking away -
saved, as it was, by China’s tensions with the United States and Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine. Now, however, Pyongyang should be interested in a deal
that grants it greater economic autonomy as well as distance from
potentially dangerous neighbors. It Might Be Interested In a Deal, In Other Words, In
Case Its Luck Runs Out.
Mozart : Requiem in D K. 626 (Orchestre national de France
/ James Gaffigan) - YouTube
8
July: Ukraine’s fight represents a watershed in
modern warfare. Kyiv has shown that it is possible to hold a stronger
adversary at bay with advanced, affordable, and adaptable drones and other
defense technologies. The United States must continue to help Ukraine
defend itself against Russian aggression, and as the Trump administration
seeks more in return, Ukraine should help the United States turbocharge its
innovation. Both countries will be better and stronger for it. Ukraine’s Drone Revolution
and What America Should Learn From It.
7
July: Instead of viewing AI as a despotic, robotic
overlord, developers need to present it more as a super-intelligent member
of people’s existing online crowds. That does not mean people place blind
faith in AI or use it to displace human-to-human interactions; that would
be disastrous. But it would be equally foolish to reject AI simply because
it seems alien. AI, like humans, has the potential to do good and bad and
to act in trustworthy and untrustworthy ways. If we want to unlock the full
benefits of AI, we need to recognize that we live in a world where trust in
leaders is crumbling, even as we put more faith in the wisdom of crowds -
and ourselves. The challenge, then, is to use this digital boost to the
wisdom of crowds to make us all wiser. AI and the Trust Revolution: How Technology Is
Transforming Human Connections.
7
July: Musk says he is forming a new political
party after the fallout with Trump. Elon Musk and the
Far-Right German Political Party With Ties To Neo-Nazis.
7
July: The spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhists,
the Dalai Lama, turned 90 on July 6 after a week of celebrations by
followers during which he riled China again and spoke about his hope to
live beyond 130 and reincarnate after dying. The Dalai Lama Said He Would Reincarnate As the
Leader of the Faith Upon His Death.
7
July: Russia’s top goal may no longer be taking
Ukrainian territory. Capturing territory may no longer be Russia’s top
priority at this stage of the war. Instead, some analysts say, Putin Wants To Grind
Down Their Smaller Neighbor’s Forces and Equipment and Sap Support Both
Among Ukrainian Civilians and in the West.
6
July: Hamas hands 'positive' ceasefire
response, Israeli security cabinet to convene Saturday night. The Response Should Help
Hamas and Israel Facilitate Reaching a Deal.
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Rafael Grossi stated that Iran could
start enriching uranium for a bomb within months, UN nuclear chief says. Rebuffing Trump.
The new U.S. national security strategy
is in its early stages and, like containment, will need to be refined over
time. The United States will be Asia-focused and China-focused for many
years to come. It now falls on both supporters and critics of the Trump
administration to develop alternative versions of prioritization that
minimize its costs and risks. Strategies of Prioritization: American Foreign
Policy After Primacy.
Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed last
week that the Air Force had struck the “Destruction of Israel” clock in
Tehran’s Palestine Square, counting down to Israel’s predicted demise in
2040. It’s not clear that the clock was smashed. If it were, Iran would
doubtless fix it. And, we know full well, it was aiming to achieve the goal
of rubbing out Israel a lot earlier than 2040. Iran Was a Decision and a
Few Weeks Away From Nuclear Weapons. But Unlike Gaza 2023, Israel Had Been
Watching.
Reindustrialization is not about
nostalgia but about renewal. The United States can no longer rest on its
reputation as the country that invents the future, but must build the
infrastructure and deploy the technologies to deliver that future. The
United States does not need to become China, nor is that even possible. But
China has grasped a crucial point: economic prosperity for future
generations hinges on investing in a twenty-first-century industrial base.
Now, it is time for the United States to do the same. To Compete Like
China, America Should Build Like China.
Victory for Ukraine may not come quickly,
cheaply, or easily. But it is still possible and will likely cost fewer
lives and resources than a perpetuation of the status quo. What remains to
be seen is whether the West, especially Europe, is willing to summon the
political will to secure this brighter future. Ukraine Can Still
Win. Western Half Measures Have Prolonged the War, but Decisive Action Now
Could End It.
Trump is enamored of the United States’
natural resources – its oil and natural gas, its timber, its agriculture.
The country’s unparalleled intelligence community is another precious
resource, a pillar of the “greatness” Trump strives for. Ensuring American
security today and for future generations depends on his good stewardship
of this national treasure. Hear No Evil.
The Dalai Lama has announced that he will
have a successor after his death, continuing a centuries-old tradition that
has become a flashpoint in the struggle with China’s Communist Party over
Tibet’s future. Tibetan Buddhism’s Spiritual Leader Made the Declaration
on Wednesday in a Video Message to Religious Elders Gathering in
Dharamshala, India.
Will
Hamas adhere to the ceasefire?
|
The post–Cold War power shift generated
optimism that an active and well-resourced global civil society would
change the world for the better. But the NGO sector was never impervious to
political challenges or financial constraints. What the optimists did not
foresee was that power could eventually shift back. The End of the Age of
NGOs? How Civil Society Lost Its Post–Cold War Power.
In a long-sought first, researchers have
sequenced the entire genome of an ancient Egyptian person, revealing
unprecedented insight about the ancestry of a man who lived when the first
pyramids were built. Some periods are dismissed as prefaces, others as
postfaces, but Egypt is one of those. Museumgoers will likely know the
division of ancient Egyptian history into Old, Middle, and New Kingdoms. But Now We Know More
About Who Their Ancestors Were.
With only economic interests in
alignment, relations between Beijing and Washington were plagued by mixed
motives, as leaders navigated conflicting pressures to cooperate and
compete. U.S. President Bill Clinton, for instance, devised a rationale for
doubling down on economic interests that he thought could one day lead to
strategic alignment: using free trade and investment as a means to
integrate China into the U.S.-led global order. With Deng’s successor Jiang
Zemin deepening reformist policies, China seemed willing to play ball. The
net result was spectacular growth in U.S.-Chinese trade and the start of
negotiations that led to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization
(WTO) in 2001. The U.S. and Chinese Economies Have Been Deeply
Intertwined Ever Since.
A diplomat’s fall from a balcony, a
military attaché’s sudden illness, a local employee of the Swiss embassy
who was stabbed and shot in the hand while walking to work, and a Swiss
tourist’s alleged suicide in prison. Switzerland warns of Iran threat as diplomats’
deaths re-examined. Switzerland’s Intelligence Service Said
Wednesday That Iranian Espionage Posed a Growing Threat to Swiss Diplomats.
The US now has a chance, in concert with
the region’s leaders, to more permanently stabilize the region and
dramatically reduce its non-stop diplomatic crisis management and half
century of nearly continuous combat operations. It Should Seize the
Moment.
Historically, countries that fail to
adapt effectively to changes in the character of war are less capable of
deterring their adversaries and more likely to lose future wars. Japanese
airpower destroyed supposedly impregnable British battle cruisers in the
Pacific at the outset of World War II. In the Hundred Years’ War, England
used the longbow to end the era of the mounted knight by defeating France
at the Battle of Crécy. If the United States continues to underinvest in
precision mass to complement its legacy investments, it may not face such a
dramatic fate. But Its Deterrence May Deteriorate At The Hands of
Adversaries Who Believe They Can Bleed U.S. Resolve.
The church is by the airport. Inside Russia’s Suspected
Spy Activities in Sweden.
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An unprecedented moment - but what the US
and Iran do next could be even more momentous. US-Iran War Today.
Iran fires missiles toward US military
bases in Qatar and Iraq: Iraq: Iran has launched missiles at a US airbase
in Qatar in response to strikes on its nuclear sites on Saturday. What We Know About the
US Strikes on Three Iranian Nuclear Sites.
In the years to come, the alliances it took
decades to foster will begin to wither, and U.S. rivals will waste no time
in leaping to exploit the resulting vacuum. Some of Washington’s partners
may wait for a while, hoping that their American friends will come to their
senses and try to reestablish something akin to the traditional U.S.
leadership role. But there is no going all the way back; their faith and
trust have been irreparably damaged. And they won’t wait long, even for an
American return to form that would amount to less than a full restoration.
Soon, they will move on - and so will the rest of the world. Disposable Nation:
America in a Post-American World.
US air strikes failed to destroy Iran’s
nuclear sites, sources say. A Preliminary U.S. Intelligence Assessment Determined
that U.S. Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Facilities Only Set Its Nuclear Program
Back by a Matter of Months.
If the United States does not urgently
prepare for the impending nuclear hurricane, it could find itself in a
place it has never been: a situation in which China, North Korea, or Russia
- acting separately or in concert - uses a nuclear weapon against a U.S.
ally or even the U.S. homeland because Washington appears to be unwilling
or unable to deter such an attack. How to Survive the New Nuclear Age: National Security
in a World of Proliferating Risks and Eroding Constraints.
U.S. officials now have to make a choice.
They can spurn Europe and face a more dangerous world alone and depleted.
Or they can forge a new, more accommodating transatlantic relationship.
They will face obstacles in attempting the latter, given all that has
changed. But the two parties have nearly a century of shared experience.
Their friendship can prevail. Beware the Europe You Wish For: The Downsides and
Dangers of Allied Independence.
Iran’s nuclear facilities have been smashed,
but the race toward a bomb may be gathering pace. US President Donald Trump
quickly heralded the US strikes on Iran as a “spectacular military
success,” saying
the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities were “totally obliterated.” Trump pushes back after leaked report suggests Iran strikes had
limited impact.
Ayatollah Khamenei may now be confident
that his regime has survived, just. But at the age of 86 and ailing, he
also knows that his days may be numbered, and he may want to ensure
continuity of the regime with an orderly transition of power to another senior
cleric or even a council of leadership. In any case, the remaining top
commanders of the Revolutionary Guard who have been loyal to the supreme
leader may be seeking to wield power from behind the scenes. Few People in Iran
Think That the Ceasefire Brokered on Monday Will Last.
Casualties, particularly from diplomatic
skirmishes with Trump, were fewer than expected. Only Spain caught flak
from the US president over its foot-dragging over the 5% GDP spend. Even
Zelensky, who has had a turbulent relationship with Trump, came away with
wins. Inside
the NATO Charm Offensive That Shocked As Much As It Delivered.
|
The past week was a roller coaster for
Pakistani diplomacy. And while Islamabad’s foreign-policy interests emerged
relatively unscathed, it may have to deal with some domestic political
damage. Pakistan
Finds Itself in Awkward Diplomatic Position.
High-resolution satellite images released
by Maxar Technologies have given us an overview of damage at two more
nuclear facilities targeted by the US: Isfahan and Natanz. The Esfahan site
had already been partly destroyed by Israel before the US attack over the
weekend, but satellite photos from Sunday show extensive new destruction -
black scorch marks, multiple collapsed buildings, and debris throughout the
complex. Satellite images also show two craters at the Natanz enrichment
facility. What
We Can Learn from Satellite Images of US Strikes on Iran.
Explosions Rock Moscow as 50 Drones
Target Russian Regions, Vnukovo Flights Diverted. With Russian air defenses
engaged and Moscow’s Vnukovo airport restricted, at least 50 UAVs were
reportedly downed across various locations in Russia. Ukraine’s drone
attack against Russian airfields was audacious and daring. But most of all,
it was meticulously planned and flawlessly executed.
U.S. intelligence officials have
concluded that Pakistan is developing an intercontinental ballistic missile
(ICBM) capable of reaching the United States. This Could Lead
Washington to Officially Classify It as a Nuclear Adversary.
The system that preserved relative peace
and prosperity for nearly eight decades is not self-sustaining. It must be
vigorously defended. After World War II broke out, U.S. policymakers
realized that the failure to establish a durable postwar order following
World War I had sown the seeds of future chaos. History’s lesson is that
waiting until a moment of crisis has passed to begin planning for what
comes next is a recipe for failure. Might Unmakes Right: The Catastrophic Collapse of Norms
Against the Use of Force.
The Israeli-Palestinian crisis has shown
how easily the EU can become paralyzed on divisive subjects. This is the
moment to overcome the crippling effect of 27 veto powers - for the sake of
European policy as well as for the Middle East. Such a change might, in
turn, make it easier for the EU to help codesign a peace plan incorporating
the views of all the relevant actors in the region. If a majority of member
states can coalesce more effectively around a vision, the rest might
follow. Europe Must Get Off the Sidelines in the Middle East. The EU Needs a More
Assertive Plan for the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Nuclear proliferation in East Asia would
also alter the terms of the debate in Europe, where it might be viewed as a
shift more real and definitive than Trump’s threats alone. It is a sobering
scenario: European leaders, faced with nothing but bad options, may prove
incapable of breaking their nuclear impasse unless someone else takes the
plunge first. Europe’s safest bet, until then, is to at least prepare for
all contingencies. Europe’s Bad Nuclear Options and Why They May Be the
Only Path to Security.
Although global demand for American power
has proved resilient before, there are no guarantees that an American
president of either party, come 2029, will be able to shape patterns of
trust and cooperation the same way presidents have in the past. The world,
meanwhile, continues to churn, as allies, partners, and adversaries make
consequential decisions that will constrain the choices available to the
next U.S. president. Washington needs a strategy fashioned for this
post-primacy reality. American Strategy and the Delusion of a
Post-Trump Restoration.
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Israel and Iran attacked each other for a
fifth straight day on June 17, and US President Donald Trump urged Iranians
to evacuate Tehran, citing what he said was the country’s rejection of a
deal to curb nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu Says Israel's Strikes On Iran Will Last
Until the Threats Are Removed From It.
A narrower U.S.-Indian relationship
centered on interests, not values, will not be a disaster for either
country. But it would represent shrunken ambitions. The transformation of
the bilateral ties between the two countries after the Cold War was once conceived
as a way to help improve and uphold the liberal international order. Now,
that relationship could be largely limited to trying to constrain a common
competitor, China. And if so, neither India nor the United States nor the
world at large will be the better for it. India’s Great-Power Delusions: How New Delhi’s Grand
Strategy Thwarts Its Grand Ambitions.
The G7 Meeting, but not the usual one,
because President Trump had to leave a day earlier because of the ongoing
Problem between Israel and its attackers. The
leaders' statement, published as Trump left Canada, said Israel had a right
to defend itself, and that Iran was a source of terror that should not have
a nuclear weapon. Its call for a resolution of the crisis that led to a
broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East amounted to a
diplomatic compromise that preserved G7 unity but watered down the
statement's impact. As he left, Trump told reporters: "I have to be
back early for obvious reasons."
Do Americans trust Europeans to command
the alliance? Do Europeans trust themselves to command, and can they trust
one another to agree on who should be the commander? If the answers to
those questions are no, then the future of the NATO alliance will be bleak.
How
to Make NATO More European: The Supreme Allied Commander for Europe Should
Also Be From Europe.
After Hamas attacked Israel on October 7,
2023, the regime’s leaders opted for a campaign of maximum aggression.
Rather than letting Hamas and Israel fight it out, they unleashed their
proxies at Israeli targets. Israel, in turn, was compelled to expand its
offensive beyond Gaza. How Iran Lost Tehran’s Hard-Liners Squandered
Decades of Strategic Capital and Undermined Deterrence.
Iranian
opposition coalition leader calls for 'regime change' Maryam Rajavi, the
president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran -- a
coalition of dissident Iranian groups -- told European lawmakers on
Wednesday that only "regime change by the people of Iran and the
organized resisters" can ensure regional peace. Israel's Friday surprise attack, Rajavi
said, represents "the beginning of a critical new chapter, both in
Iran's internal crisis and the broader dynamics of the region."
Achieving a peace agreement will be
extremely difficult. Iran and Israel are entrenched in their respective
positions. The conflict appears to be intensifying, not easing. Yet the
world desperately needs a serious, sustained diplomatic effort at de-escalation.
That effort must involve Iran and Israel and must be supported by the
United States. But it can only be led, or at least catalyzed, by states in
the region. A Last Chance at Middle East Peace: Arab States May
Be the Key to Stopping the Israel-Iran War.
Continuing to deny Russia victory is a
form of pressure on Putin, who has so little to show for such a long and
calamitous campaign. Although it may be hard to imagine a military defeat
for Russia, it is possible to imagine a shift in Ukraine’s favor. If Moscow
becomes convinced, contrary to its current expectations, that time is not
on its side, perhaps that might yet cause it to wonder whether the moment
has come to cut its losses. Why Putin Still Fights The Kremlin Will End Its
War in Ukraine Only When It Knows that Victory Is Impossible.
Since Israel’s strikes started, Iran has
fired 400 ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, killing 24
people and injuring more than 800, according to the Israeli government. At
least 224 Iranians have been killed by Israel’s attacks. Senior US Officials
Are Preparing for the Possibility of a Strike on Iran in the Coming Days.
A
hospital in Beersheba in southern Israel has been hit after Iran launched a
wave of missiles overnight --- Soroka Hospital has been extensively
damaged, a spokesperson says,
while Israel's emergency service says at least 89 people have been injured
across the country Iranian
state media reports that the missile strike
targeted a military site next to the hospital and not the facility itself
--- In Iran, Israel's military says it targeted nuclear sites, including
the "inactive" Arak heavy
water reactor and Natanz
facility --- The attacks this morning come at a critical time, as Donald Trump
considers the possibility of direct US involvement in Israel's campaign, writes
Hugo Bachega --- Trump has reportedly approved
plans to attack Iran, but has not made a
final decision. Iran's supreme leader warned of "irreparable
harm" if the US intervenes
Israel’s emergency response service said
three people were seriously injured by Iranian strikes overnight across the
country, with two “moderately” hurt. A Staff Member Walks Along a Damaged Area at the
Soroka Hospital Complex after It Was Hit by a Missile in Beer Sheva,
Israel, on Thursday.
Putin is more likely to end the war if he
is confident that Ukraine will not thereafter join NATO. In return, NATO
should demand that Russia agree to not only a permanent end to the war but
also a renunciation of further territorial claims as well as any
restrictions on Ukraine’s armed forces and its ability to defend itself. Close NATO’s Door to
Ukraine. Years of Empty Promises Have Not Helped Kyiv or Fostered Peace.
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Iran belongs to the Iranians. They are
the only ones who can in the end determine the direction of their country.
They have taken to the streets in 1906, 1922, and 1979, and they can be
counted on to do so again. All the United States and Israel can do is
weaken the regime and accentuate its vulnerabilities. The Islamic Republic
has never faced a crisis like the one unleashed by this month’s attacks.
It’s a great irony that Israel, disparaged relentlessly by the Iranian
leadership as a savage, illegitimate colonial settler state aiming to
humble Muslims everywhere, may, just possibly, have opened the door for a
new future for the long-suffering Iranian people. The Right Path to Regime
Change in Iran: How America and Israel Can Create the Conditions for the
Toppling of the Islamic Republic.
Setting Iran’s nuclear program back
without spurring a rush to a nuclear weapon, it is a particularly bad bet
when compared with the alternative: an agreement that imposes robust
verification on Iran’s nuclear activities and puts enough time on the clock
to detect and preempt a breakout. Under these conditions, exhausting every
possibility to achieve such an agreement is the only responsible course. A
two-week delay should offer Trump and senior members of his administration
time to register this reality and do what is required to strike a deal that
would end the conflict. The US is on the Verge of Catastrophe in the Middle
East. U.S. Intervention in Iran Would Be a Terrible Gamble.
Iran rules out new nuclear talks until
attacks stop. The Israel Defense Forces Said They Had
Attacked Ballistic Missile Storage and Launch Sites in Western Iran.
Hours after he appeared to suggest that
the matter of US involvement in Israel’s campaign against Iran’s nuclear
program was as yet undecided. Additional attacks target Natanz, Isfahan
atomic sites in strikes coordinated with Israel; IDF Home Front Command
reinstates the highest level of restrictions. US President Donald Trump Announced Early Sunday that
the US Had Carried Out a “Successful Attack” on the Fordo, Natanz, and
Isfahan Nuclear Sites in Iran.
In the coming days or weeks, Iran may be
forced to accept terms favorable to Israel and the United States, and the
war may quickly end. But the track record of American military
interventions in the Middle East and the nature of war over human history
show that American involvement comes with tremendous risk. The best and
most durable option for the United States all along was to pursue a
diplomatic deal that verifiably restrained Iran’s nuclear program.
Unfortunately, after the events of today, that option is much less likely. America’s War With
Iran: What Comes After U.S. Strikes.
There's “no question” the US will be
dragged into a regional war if it strikes Iran, former CIA director Panetta
says:
Sunday morning in the Middle East.
Israeli operation in Iran to take weeks, and it’s moving forward with
implicit US approval. Overview Of What Defense Systems Israel
Has In Place.
Iran warns US strikes will have
‘everlasting consequences’ as Trump says nuclear sites ‘obliterated.’
President Donald Trump says the US has
carried out a "successful" bombing attack on three nuclear sites
in Iran, and they have been obliterated. Details About US Strikes on Iran.
Iran Closes the Strait of Hormuz:
Strait
of Hormuz, Makran region in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, Gulf
of Oman and the northern coast of Oman as seen from space.
Trump’s
Iran strike was clear and bold. The Aftermath Could Be Far Messier.
It takes time for history to reach its
destination, and not before it sets out on many false trails. The years
that lie ahead will not reflect tidy plans and rigorous policy
prescriptions. They will be shaped by instinct and emotion, inspired by
raw, deeply-rooted yearnings for historical redress and vengeance. This is
not a world built by or for Americans. They will be at sea. The Perils of Middle East
Triumphalism: Iran, Israel, and the Ghosts of History.
President Trump defended his claim that
its nuclear enrichment sites had been “totally obliterated” by US strikes
over the weekend, insisting it was an “accurate term” even as a US damage
assessment was still underway. The US president said in a social media post
that the sites, which were struck by GBU-57 “bunker buster” bombs and
Tomahawk cruise missiles on Saturday night, sustained “monumental damage”,
adding: “The biggest damage took place far below ground level.” Is 'Regime Change' Likely?
Some may hear Xi Jinping’s call not as a
rallying cry but as a weary echo of the past. Many young Chinese people
might be more interested in living less ardent lives than what Xi demands
of them. The Xi family story raises questions about just how these young
people can be won over. A message of suffering and struggle can indeed be
meaningful for some, but for others, it may only lead to alienation. Xi Jinping’s Costly
Inheritance: How His Father’s Travails Defined China’s Leader, and the
Country He Rules.
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India and Pakistan send delegations to
the United States as part of a diplomatic blitz in the wake of their
conflict last month, Nepal’s pro-monarchy movement presents a growing
challenge to the government in Kathmandu, and Canada may not extend Indian
Prime Minister Narendra Modi his usual invite to the G-7 leaders’
summit. India and Pakistan Engage in Diplomatic Blitz. The
Countries Are Waging a Narrative Battle on the Global Stage In The Wake Of
Their Latest Military Conflict.
Just like all his predecessors, President
Netanyahu retains a free hand in Gaza and the West Bank. He can move ahead
with his plans to destroy and depopulate the former and to annex territory
in the latter. He ultimately might not take these measures, thanks to
broader international pressure or shifts in domestic public opinion, or
because he strikes a deal to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia. The
US and Israel Follow the Same Old Script: Trump Restrains Netanyahu’s
Regional Ambitions, but Gives Him a Free Hand With the Palestinians.
Two Chinese nationals were charged with
"Agro-Terrorism" smuggling toxic fungus into the U.S. The Two
Chinese Nationals Have Been Charged With Conspiracy and Smuggling After
Attempting To Bring a Toxic Fungus That Is A “Dangerous Biological
Pathogen” Into the United States.
President Netanyahu confirms Israel
arming clans opposed to Hamas in Gaza. The Abu Shabab Militia.
If the rest of the world demonstrates
that it can cooperate and prosper without the United States, future
American leaders and the American people may come to see the benefits of
participating in global initiatives once again. That outcome would be good for
Japan, good for the world, and even good for the United States. How Japan - and Other U.S.
Allies - Can Work Around America a Plan to Survive Trump’s Trade War.
The certainty that Washington will seek
to act ruthlessly in its self-interest and use its might to extract the
best deal for itself. Future U.S. leaders may try to restore the country’s
moral leadership, but trust once lost is hard to win back. Trade deals come
and go, but if the light on the hill shines only for Americans, Trump will
have ushered in a darker world for everybody else. America’s Allies Must
Save Themselves: How to Pick Up the Pieces of the World Order Trump Is
Breaking.
Hardened aircraft shelters aren’t flashy
and are unlikely to generate the headlines of other defense projects,
including planes like the new B-21 bombers, each of which is expected to
cost around $700 million. Ukraine’s Shock Drone Strike On Russia’s
Strategic Bomber Fleet.
Many waking up in the Los Angeles area
are startled by the news of the National Guard arriving here. There have
been protests on multiple days this week, all in areas where immigration
raids were happening. But the LA area is huge, and these protests were
fairly isolated in small pockets of the city. The county has nearly 10
million residents and covers 4,000 square miles. Today, National Guard
members stand by trucks. Chaos in Los Angeles.
Police arrest about 60 people in San
Francisco after protests on ICE's raids turn violent.
It’s unlikely the Trump administration
will move as quickly and aggressively against politicians and state
officials with crime ties as Washington might like. Curbing impunity for
colluding with crime will be a long, incremental process, extending beyond
any one six-year term. If Trump and Sheinbaum miss this opportunity, and
the penalties for official collusion with crime remain as low as they are
today, the outcome is all but certain: more drug overdose deaths in the
United States, and more tragic cases like Teuchitlán in Mexico. The Hole in Mexico’s
Security Strategy: Can Sheinbaum Take on Cartels and Corruption Without
Losing Control?
Whether they like it or not, geopolitics
has shifted in ways that make the previous rules-based order unsustainable.
Trump’s shock to the system may not be pretty. But it could open the way
for a much better system. The Right Way to Build a New Global
Economic Order.
Anti-ICE protests are popping up across
the US.
Most Americans approve of Trump's actions:
The biggest lesson of Brexit is that
policy uncertainty can chill business investment, growth in productivity,
and incomes, quickly, lastingly, and painfully. The supporters of Trump’s
“strategic uncertainty” approach have been forewarned. America’s Brexit Phase,
Trump’s Tariffs, and the Price of Economic Uncertainty.
Not only are Arab citizens turning out in
support of the people of Gaza; their efforts are also changing regional
dynamics in ways that challenge U.S. and Israeli interests. As long as Arab
populations perceive U.S. and Western policies toward Israel to be based on
double standards and impunity, this standoff will likely continue. And if
Israel’s Gaza campaign drags on and efforts to displace Gazans by force
persist, it will most likely escalate. How Arab Public Opinion Constrains Normalization
With Israel.
Recently we mentioned that the U.S.
attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Michigan accused Yunqing
Jian, a researcher at the University of Michigan, and Zunyong Liu, a
researcher at Zhejiang University in China, of working together to smuggle
into the United States samples of Fusarium
graminearum, which it described as a “noxious
fungus.” Now, There Is a Second Such Case.
As long as the United States remains the
world’s top energy producer, the temptation to use this advantage to
extract trade concessions, walk away from costly commitments, and
prioritize near-term gains over long-term alliances will persist. Energy
dominance may seem like a boon for the future of American power, but unless
the U.S. government shows more restraint, it could turn into a bust.
Petrostate America: The Downsides of Energy Independence.
Why Trump’s get-tough-on-immigrants
strategy will be hard to sustain. Assurances That the Administration Would Focus On
Dangerous Criminals Never Squared With Trump’s Promise of Mass Deportations.
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Congress Must Constrain Trump. Deploying Marines to Los
Angeles Is Not Only Illegal, It Is Bad For the Relationship Between the
American People and the Military.
At
least 290 people are dead after a passenger plane crashed on departure at an airport in Ahmedabad, India, health officials
said. The plane, en route to London, hit a hostel for doctors when it
crashed, and images show its
tail protruding from the
building. The death toll includes people on the plane and others on the
ground, police said. A single British national passenger
survived.
It is expected that Israel will soon strike Iran. Trump is meeting with his National Security Council behind closed
doors at the White House today. During the day, we're likely to hear and
see strongly worded statements from the administration, with a particular
focus on repeating that the US played no active part in the strike, and
warning Iran of a stern response should US forces in the Middle East be
attacked.
Netanyahu described the strikes on Iran
as "very successful", but Israel is now in a state
of emergency in anticipation of counterattacks from Iran. Residents have
been told to "remain in the protected areas" and "obey the
instructions" of the authorities.
Due to the recent non-compliance from
Iran, strikes on Nuclear Sites are possible.
Washington will face the worst possible
outcome: a superior competitor with increasing economic and military power
enabled by AI, and a domestic AI industry unable to keep up, handicapped by
its inability to build on Chinese models if necessary. Finishing second is
not a death knell for U.S. AI, but refusing to adapt to compete would be. What If China Wins the AI
Race?
The challenge, for Israel, the United
States, and any other government intent on preventing nuclear proliferation
in the Middle East, is to find ways to prevent Iran from following the path
that Iraq did following the Osirak strike. If anything, the situation is
more dangerous now than it was then, since Iran’s nuclear program is so
much more advanced, its scientists so much more knowledgeable, and its
nuclear infrastructure so much more capable than Iraq’s was in 1981. This
creates the Catch-22, in which the best way to prevent Iranian
reconstitution would be an aggressive pursuit of a new nuclear deal with
Tehran, at precisely the moment when Iran’s leadership will be least
interested in one, given their likely outrage at the Israeli attack. And
without such a new deal, Israel may have succeeded in setting the Iranian
nuclear program back in the short term, perhaps for a year or two, only to
ensure the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran not long thereafter. The Real Threat From
Iran: Tehran’s Most Dangerous Option for Responding to Israel.
Israel's military says Iran fired about
100 drones towards its territory, many of which were intercepted, after
Israel carried out waves of strikes on Iran overnight. The IDF Says It
Carried Out Strikes On Nuclear Sites and Says Revolutionary Guard Chief
Hossein Salami and Other Commanders Have Been Killed.
Israeli strikes are ongoing in Iran,
targeting several cities across the nation, state-run media said. Iranian
state television and state-affiliated media said the Natanz nuclear site
was struck in a missile attack. The outskirts of the cities of Tabriz and
Shiraz were also targeted in what state television called “an aggressive
attack.”
The Gulf states will likely condemn the
Israeli attack to dissuade Iran from hitting their territory and assets.
But if the United States gets involved, Iran might well fire close-range
ballistic missiles at civilian locations or energy infrastructure in the
Gulf states, to exact a price for what they would see as complicity with a
U.S. attack. How War Between Iran and Israel Could Escalate,
and Drag the United States In.
Israel’s attacks against Iran appear to
have been tactically brilliant and well-informed. But its ability to carry
out sophisticated strikes was never really in doubt. Analysts knew that the
Israeli military was supremely capable and had tricks up its sleeve.
Instead, the question was always whether an Israeli-only attack – or even a
joint U.S.-Israeli operation – could meaningfully forestall an Iranian dash
for nuclear weapons. Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program? What
It Will Take to Block Tehran’s Path to the Bomb.
Following decades of enmity and conflict
by proxy, it is the first time that Israel and Iran have traded fire with
such intensity, with fears of a prolonged conflict engulfing the region. Tehran Will Burn.
Sunday morning in the Middle East.
Israeli operation in Iran to take weeks, and it’s moving forward with
implicit US approval. Overview Of What Defense Systems Israel Has In
Place.
No Kings organizers avoided calling for demonstrations
in Washington, where the military parade was being held despite a forecast
of thunderstorms. Trump previously warned that anyone seeking to protest at
the parade would be met with “very big force.” The Pacific Curfew
Threatened To Escalate Clashes Between Law Enforcement Officials and
Protesters in Downtown Los Angeles.
Underneath Iranian
president vowed ‘harsher response’ to Israel.
The consequences of the second Trump
administration for future American foreign policy, under either party, are
already grave. If there is no serious reckoning that attempts to rebuild
presidential accountability for foreign policy, then Americans should
expect not only more military parades but also more military misadventures,
unpredictable trade relations, and fitful foreign-policy making in a very
uncertain future. Political scientists who study autocracies recognize this
for what it is: a dictator’s foreign policy. Imperial President at Home, Emperor Abroad:
American Foreign Policy in an Age of Unrestrained Executive Power.
The Israel-Iran War Is Just Beginning. Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Has Announced That Israel Will Continue Strikes
For "As Many Days As It Takes."
If Trump is committed to a nuclear-free
Iran, his best bet is to get the Iranians and Israelis to stop the war and
bring Tehran back to the negotiating table. Without a deal, Iran’s
frightened government seems more likely than not to sprint for nuclear weapons
as conditions allow. Then Trump Would Either Have To Accept a Nuclear Iran
or Join Another Israeli Assault on the Country, Risking Precisely the Kind
of Catastrophic Middle East Entanglement He Promised To Avoid.
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The indomitable Erdogan has run out of
room to maneuver. By choosing the time and manner of his exit, he could
help ease the transition to a new leader and ensure Turkey is at peace with
itself. He can still shape his legacy. His personality, however, suggests
that he is unlikely to embark on such a shift. If he sticks to his typical
approach, there is a significant risk that the Turkish public will turn
decisively against him – and that his long, eventful tenure in office will
be remembered more simply as an era of autocracy. How the Turkish
Leader Has Engineered His Own Undoing.
The border between North and South Korea
is swamped with layers of dense barbed-wire fencing and hundreds of guard
posts. But dotted among them is something even more unusual: giant, green
camouflaged speakers. Kim Jong Un Might Now Be
Winning.
Called by us initially, Pahalgam and the
Balochistan Conundrum. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif Emphasized the Need
for Talks.
A thematic sanctions program focused on
illicit natural resource trafficking aimed at preserving limited natural
resources and securing their sustainable and equitable use would elevate
awareness of the threat, disrupt international networks, and deter would-be
illicit actors. The tools developed in the fight against other
transnational threats should be used to safeguard the world’s forests
against exploitation. Otherwise, illicit actors will continue to profit
from their pillage. The War on Trees: How Illegal Logging Funds
Cartels, Terrorists, and Rogue Regimes.
Members of the Indian all-party
delegation visiting the United States to brief the country on Operation
Sindoor condemned the targeted terrorist attack in Colorado, where a man
threw firebombs at a Jewish gathering, injuring at least six people. The United
States Has Witnessed a Surge in Anti-Semitic Attacks in Recent Months.
As major European powers seek to rapidly
augment their defense capabilities in a world where the U.S. defense
umbrella is no longer assured, their governments face a choice: they can
either uphold the international principles they often champion or
abandon their claim to moral leadership. Just as crucially, major states in
the global South that have long and rightly criticized international courts
for targeting only non-Western actors and outright adversaries of the West
must now step up. What Gazans Want.
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Elsewhere in Switzerland, after a glacier
collapsed onto Blatten, fear is gripping the mountains. The destruction of
the village served as a stark reminder to residents that dramatic collapses
are becoming more frequent in the Swiss Alps. Clearly, due to global
warming, which will create havoc also elsewhere in time, the most exposed
sites may have to be abandoned.
In a post on social media, the SBU said
Operation Spider Web cost Russia $7bn (£5.2bn). Russian state media
stayed studiously quiet on the attacks, with primetime Sunday TV shows
merely quoting statements by regional authorities. By Monday morning, the
story had disappeared from the bulletins. On the internet and beyond,
Ukrainians celebrated, with one lauding the operation as
"titanic". How Ukraine Carried Out Daring 'Spider Web' Attack
on Russian Bombers and Destroyed the Bridge Connecting Russia to Crimea
with Underwater Explosives.
Hamas strategically used its
well-prepared dense urban battlefield, including the hundreds of miles of
tunnels it had built under the territory. It also systematically used Gaza
civilians as human shields and turned hospitals, schools, and UN sites into
military safe houses. For logistical purposes, it weaponized humanitarian
aid to maintain its grip on the population and to finance its military
effort and resurgence, refilling its dwindling ranks with recruits.
Tactically, it opted for guerrilla warfare rather than pitched battles,
avoiding Israeli forces when they advanced through certain areas and
returning as soon as they left. Israel’s Dangerous Escalation in Gaza:
How Politics and Ideology Are Sidelining
National Security and Creating a Forever War.
Lee Jae-myung can provide the consistent
focus on North Korea that Trump lacks. Suppose Lee can foreclose the
unrealistic prospect of reunification, stop insisting on North Korea’s
complete denuclearization, and offer Kim a path toward healthy economic development.
In that case, he will open room for a détente. That would make it possible
to put in place a wide variety of policies that reduce tensions on the
Korean Peninsula. And if Lee succeeds, the U.S.-South Korean alliance can
itself undergo a necessary transformation into a partnership based on
fostering peace rather than preparing for war. South Korea’s New President
Could Transform the Korean Peninsula: How Lee Jae-myung Can Push Trump and Kim Back to Real
Diplomacy.
Congress is losing patience. Europe is
growing frustrated. And the global oil market is better positioned to
absorb disruptions than it has been in years. The stars are aligning for
Trump to get the cards he needs to change Putin’s calculus. The question is
whether he’s ready to play them - Putin’s Pressure Point: Congress Should
Wield Oil Sanctions to Force Russia to Negotiate.
A
view of Gazprom Neft’s oil refinery in Omsk, Russia
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The United States and its allies should
develop
military concepts and capabilities allowing them to respond to aggression quickly
and effectively. In other words, they should make every effort to be able
to deny territory grabs by China. They should be prepared to fight and win
a conflict with Beijing, if necessary, despite the increasingly long
nuclear shadow that China casts over the region. They should, in turn,
consider how they can best leverage their collective military might,
including nuclear weapons, against China. The End of Extended
Deterrence in Asia?
Two Jewish Embassy staff were shot dead:
The two were shot and killed as they left an event at the Capital Jewish
Museum, which is in a part of downtown Washington about 1.3 miles (2 km)
from the White House Washington Metropolitan Police Chief Pamela Smith said
a man shot at a group of four people with a handgun, hitting both the
victims. He was seen pacing outside the museum before the shooting. Jechiel
Leiter, Israel's ambassador to the U.S., told reporters the young man
killed had "purchased a ring to propose to his girlfriend next
week." There were other situations like this before; one of them was
the Chabad of Poway synagogue shooting in Poway, California, United
States. Underneath a picture of the clean-up, of the shooting the next
morning. Even the famous Dr. Phil had something
to say about it. Phil McGraw, better known as “Dr. Phil”, isn’t Jewish, but a
trained clinical psychologist.
  
Even as the U.S. dollar’s perch at the
apex of the international monetary system looks increasingly fragile, the
lack of viable alternatives should keep it from tumbling off that perch -
for now. As has long been the case, this resilience is less a product of
American exceptionalism than of fundamental economic, political, and
institutional weaknesses in the rest of the world. Unless that changes, the
dollar will remain on a much longer leash than any currency should
rightfully have. Why America’s Currency Can Survive Trump’s Wrecking
Ball.
Cooler heads would exercise restraint
from a proxy war because Pakistan can ill afford repeated confrontations
with an economically and militarily more powerful rival, nor to it court
the risk of nuclear escalation. India, too, should not want perpetual conflict
with Pakistan when it seeks to be a great power. But any respite from
violence will likely be temporary as long as one side still believes that
it has something to gain from assailing the other. The Next War
Between India and Pakistan.
Basel, Switzerland, and the 69th edition
of what is now the world’s largest musical event, whose more than 160
million annual viewers make it one of the most popular broadcasts in all of
global television, it occurred to me that these are the very same complaints
currently levied against liberal democracy: strained budgets, declining
quality of services, and contested elections. The Trump administration
could not be clearer: America’s commitment to liberal tolerance is over, and Europe is on its
own.
The Chachapoya settled between the 7th
and 16th centuries on the slopes of the northeastern Andes at altitudes
between 2000 and 3000 meters. The "Cloud People" or "Mist
Warriors" built highly developed urban centers, ceremonial platforms,
rock tombs, and agricultural terraces. They resisted the Incas for a long
time but were eventually subdued shortly before the arrival of the
Spaniards.
Pakistan and India’s aviation authorities
said on May 23 that they would extend an airspace ban on each other’s
airlines, after the worst violence between the nuclear-armed rivals in
decades. It comes a month after the deadly April 22 attack on Indian
tourists in Kashmir, which sparked a four-day military conflict between
India and Pakistan. From Pamalgam to the Balochistan
Conundrum.
Further
to our previous article, speaking at an event in Rajasthan recently,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reported to have said that Pakistan would not have access to Indian rivers. The Indus
Waters Treaty.
Strengthening counter terrorism efforts,
disrupting the Tehrik-e-Taliban ’s financial networks, and
enhancing regional cooperation will also be crucial. Additionally, winning
the war of narratives is key to preventing political elements from opportunistic
and disruptive alignment with the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), more
importantly, it is to address the underlying issues that fuel its rise.
Pakistan’s leadership must devise a robust strategy that combines military,
political, and narrative-based approaches to effectively combat the TTP’s
influence. The Balochistan Conundrum: Balochistan’s
Shadow War.
Armenia’s domestic fragility, waning
global attention, and renewed Russian interest could derail the positive
steps made over the past three years. The strategic opening created by
Moscow’s distraction in Ukraine will not last indefinitely. If further geopolitical
shifts occur without a durable settlement in place, Russia may still find
ways to reinsert itself, maybe not to restore its former dominance but to
obstruct progress, prolong ambiguity, and make sure its interests are
preserved. How a Delayed Peace With Armenia Endangers a
New Regional Order.
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Striking
Iran’s nuclear program would likely set off a much larger conflict in which
Israel and the United States hunt for covert Iranian nuclear sites and
Tehran retaliates in the Middle East and beyond. Instead, the United States
should take advantage of its leverage and Trump’s ironclad grip on the
Republican Party to make a deal - even an imperfect one - while doing so
remains possible. Trump could even make good on his promise from 2018: to
secure a better agreement than the JCPOA. What Washington Needs From
Nuclear Negotiations With Tehran.
The South China Sea has been a source of
friction for many decades. At This Time, the Philippines is Open To More
Agreements With China To Keep Peace in the South China Sea.
The threat from China but also seen in
taking unprecedented steps to invest in their militaries, build ties with
their neighbors, and double down on their alliances with the United States.
In fact, in recent years, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines have
already made moves on defense and security matters that were previously
deemed implausible. The conditions are now set for strong leadership to
transform a collective defense pact in Asia from something once
unimaginable into a defining feature of the region’s future peace and
prosperity. The Case for a Pacific Defense Pact.
Rather than repeating that history,
Syria’s post-Assad transition could be a catalyst for growth and
stabilization. When Trump announced that he was ending U.S. sanctions, he
said that the move gave Syrians “a chance at greatness.” To keep that
chance alive, his administration must build on the current momentum and
ensure that the U.S. government follows through on his promise - and that
actors in Syria and across the region do not spoil the process. Can Syria Be Saved?
Opposition leader Shashi Tharoor, leading
one of the all-party delegations on Operation Sindoor global outreach
mission, has asserted in Panama City that though the leaders come from
different political backgrounds, they all stand "united in national
purpose". Shashi Tharoor's Delegation.
A former college principal in the eastern
Indian state of Odisha has been sentenced to life in prison for sending a
parcel bomb that killed a newlywed man and his great aunt in 2018. A court
found Punjilal Meher, 56, guilty of murder, attempted murder, and use of
explosives in what became known as the "wedding bomb" case that
stunned India. 'Wedding Bomb' Murderer Gets Life Sentence in India.
China is making great strides in
innovation. For now, the United States remains the global leader, thanks to
the extraordinary innovation apparatus it has painstakingly built since
World War II. Defending it will not be easy. Reconstituting it from ruins
will be even harder. And China Will Reap the Benefits.
The United States cannot afford to ignore
Kim any longer, and after three failed summits during Trump’s first term, a
fourth will have to produce tangible results rather than empty words. Those
results may not sit well with many. Trump’s obsession with winning the
Nobel Peace Prize, his desire to end the fighting in Ukraine, and his
unique “bromance” with Kim could lead him to make a deal that recognizes
North Korea’s nuclear status, sells out allies, and appeases Putin - all in
the name of putting “America first.” Get Ready for a Big, Bold, and Very Bad North Korea
Deal. Trump Wants a Win, and Kim Has More Leverage Than Ever.
At Pahalgam on April 22, Pakistani and
Pakistan-trained terrorists asked the tourists to read kalma to identify
the non-Muslims, and shot them dead from point-blank range in front of
their family members. The communal line in the attack also comes after the
dog-whistling by General Asim Munir. "Our forefathers believed that we
were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religion
is different. Our customs are different... That was the foundation of the
Two-Nation Theory," said General Munir on April 16. Saifullah Kasuri, a
Top Lashkar-E-Taiba Commander and the Alleged Mastermind Behind the Recent
Terror Attack in Pahalgam.
How
Nostalgia Ruins Economies; Trump and the Troubled History of Atempting to Going
Back in Time (by Turning the Clock).
The
war in Ukraine is much more likely to continue than it is to stop. Putin
has no reason to let up, and Zelensky has no reason to give in: the
Ukrainian president believes that conceding part of Ukraine now would
eventually lead Kyiv to lose all of it. For him, under these circumstances,
the cease-fire at the end of the tunnel is the light of an oncoming train.
Nothing but death is predetermined. Trump and others have the power to
change their opinions and tactics. But the best Europeans can do now is accelerate
their efforts to arm Kyiv - and themselves. The Delusions of
Peacemaking in Ukraine Kyiv Won’t Compromise on Its Sovereignty Because It
Isn’t Facing Defeat.
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Israel says it has launched strikes on
the Yemeni ports of Hodeidah and as-Salif in response to the Houthi rebels
firing missiles towards Israel, days after the Yemeni group agreed a truce
with the United States. While the US under Trump stopped its support
for the Houthis, Israel proceeded to defend itself. On 16 May, Israel
Says It Has Launched Strikes on Yemen.
The US president, Donald Trump, secured
hundreds of billions of dollars in investments while visiting Saudi Arabia,
Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates this week. He also announced the end of
US sanctions on Syria, which have existed since 1979. However, the trip was
overshadowed by criticism after Qatar offered to give the US Department of
Defense a $400m Boeing 747-8 before the visit, prompting accusations of
bribery.
Defying expectations, the United States
and China have announced an important agreement to de-escalate
bilateral trade tensions after talks in Geneva, Switzerland. The Good, the Bad, and
the Ugly.
States should celebrate entrepreneurial
success and foster competition by reducing regulatory burdens, especially
those that disproportionately affect smaller and younger firms. Taxation on
labor income should be modest enough to incentivize hard work and also
allow for the accumulation of new wealth, while capital taxation should
target income rather than wealth or inheritances. Public investment should
focus on building the capabilities that let households become stakeholders
- education, infrastructure, and a rules-based climate that rewards
risk-taking. Such an agenda accepts that inequality can coexist with, and
even flow from, broad prosperity. Frustration with privilege should be
channeled into reforms that expand opportunity rather than cap success. Western Societies Are
Growing More Equal, Not Less.
Who's paying for a blue checkmark on
X-formerly-Twitter these days? According to a new report by the big tech
accountability nonprofit Tech Transparency Project (TTP), the answer is: a
bunch of terrorists. Though X says it reviews subscribed accounts to
ensure they "meet all eligibility criteria" for verification, the
feature has been pretty broken since Musk took over the platform and made
the feature pay-to-play. The TTP Investigation.
The
US could be planning to deport up to 1
million Palestinians from Gaza to Libya.
The India-Pakistan
Crisis. Is China the
Winner in the India-Pakistan Conflict?
Isaac Herzog, President of Israel, meets
the Pope. Comment.
The current theory of how the Universe
came into being can't explain the existence of the planets, stars, and
galaxies we see around us. Scientists Are in a Race to Discover Why Our
Universe Exists.
For many in Washington, deterrence has
come to mean projecting an uncompromising and even hostile posture toward
China. But such gestures do not meaningfully augment Taiwan’s security.
Instead, the United States should invest quietly in its military readiness
and capabilities, speak carefully, and maintain economic resilience and
even some interdependence. The Taiwan Tightrope Deterrence Is a Balancing
Act.
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A Russia-NATO War Would Look Nothing Like
Ukraine. Moscow Will Seek to Avoid a Full-On War and Focus On
Breaking the Bloc’s Resolve.
The global institutions that
traditionally restrain both secessionist overreach and heavy-handed
repression are losing their power to constrain either. The EU once played a
central role in restraining violence between Serbia and Kosovo, for
example, using accession talks as leverage to encourage cooperation. The UN
helped limit violence in East Timor and South Sudan by providing
peacekeeping forces. But ultimately, these institutions derive their power
from the support of member countries, which is weakening. Trump, for his
part, has repeatedly attacked both bodies and cut U.S. funding for the
U.N.’s peacekeeping missions. The New Price of Statehood.
Chinese shop owner adopts stray dogs only
to kill, cook and eat them. Woman Pretends To Offer Canines Loving Home, Slaughters
Them, Then Posts Videos Online of ‘Perfect’ Dish for ‘Rainy Day With a
Drink.
Romania’s development, identity, and even
basic democratic orientation remain up for grabs. By surviving the greatest
challenge to its democratic foundations since the end of the Cold War,
Romania has avoided disaster. But by relying in part on an emergency
judicial intervention to do so, it may have further eroded key
institutions’ democratic legitimacy. Romania’s Postponed Reckoning: A Re-Run Election
Averted Autocracy but Left Democracy in Peril.
U.S. support for Kyiv is receding; Moscow
is continuing its invasion, with the help of Beijing, Pyongyang, and
Tehran; and Putin is betting that his position will improve with time.
European countries can shift these dynamics, provide Ukraine with a lasting
source of support, and persuade Putin to engage in meaningful
negotiations. Make Moscow Pay: The Case for Seizing Russian Assets
to Fund Ukraine’s Defense.
The Attack Comes During a Fragile India-Pakistan
Ceasefire.
On May 21, 2025, Pakistan was in the
midst of escalating tensions with India. The situation had reached a
crisis point after India launched missile strikes on Pakistan, mentioned
below as 'Operation Sindoor', in response to a terrorist attack in
Indian-administered Kashmir. Three children and two adults were killed in a
suicide attack on a school bus in Pakistan on May 21, 2025. Additionally,
the 2025 Pakistan Super League was delayed to May 25 due to the ongoing
conflict.
The personal secretary and an adviser to
the mayor of Mexico City were shot and killed in broad daylight on Tuesday
while commuting to work. Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada said the victims,
Ximena Guzmán and José Muñoz, died as a result of a “direct attack” in
Mexico City's Moderna neighborhood. At least 4 people involved in the
Attack. Gunman
Kills Top Aides to Mexico City Mayor in Daylight Attack.
As CHIPS demonstrated, policymakers need
to make government an attractive place to work for people from finance and
industry, identify and mitigate sources of delay, and measure success
against clear and definable metrics. At the same time, policymakers should
push for structural reforms to make the government work better. A Playbook for
Industrial Policy.
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Trump has radically undermined American soft
power and the nonmilitary U.S. presence in the region by eroding the
federal government’s ability to carry out policy, closing American borders,
slashing foreign assistance, and shuttering institutions of public
diplomacy. Support for Israel’s depopulation and annexation of Gaza will
only inflame public opinion in the Middle East in ways that an Iran nuclear
deal will not assuage. What Does Trump Want in the Middle East?
America’s Allies in the Region Wish They Knew.
In a statement on X, Pakistan Foreign
Minister Ishaq Dar said: Pakistan and India have agreed to a ceasefire with
immediate effect. India’s Foreign Ministry said the head of Pakistan’s
military operations called his Indian counterpart on the afternoon of May
10 and it was agreed that both sides would stop all firing. We Hope That Sense
Will Prevail.
The Big Tech’s eclipse of the
nation-state is not inevitable. But it seems as if Big Tech’s eclipse of
democracy, at least, has already begun. The Technopolar Paradox.
President Donald Trump’s shock-and-awe
tariff approach threatened to rupture the global financial system and drive
the US economy into recession. Nervous about the prospect of empty store
shelves and reignited inflation, Trump sent in his even-keeled and
professional negotiators to Geneva to snag a win. Is Trump Losing the
Trade War Vs China?
Germany urgently needs an ambitious
industrial policy that delivers sustainable economic growth and good
jobs. The German economy also needs to become more resilient to global
demand shocks. What Germany’s Economy Needs.
Trump may ultimately reduce some of his
levies, particularly as he negotiates with more and more countries. He has
already made a trade deal with the United Kingdom. But the president has
abandoned the institutions and norms that once stabilized global trade. In
doing so, he is risking an era not of renewed American strength but of
stagnation, fragmentation, and danger. When Trade Wars Become Shooting Wars.
When U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted,
on May 10, that India and Pakistan had agreed to a cease-fire, the world
breathed a sigh of relief. Yet the stakes grew especially high after the
Indian military hit Pakistan’s Nur Khan air base, close to the country’s
nuclear command forces. It was an attack that could have provoked
uncontrolled escalation - and that pushed Washington to intervene even
after senior officials had insisted the administration was disinclined to
do so. How The US Can Keep the Peace Between India
and Pakistan.
Playing all sides can lead to isolation,
and pursuing every opportunity for engagement can overstretch countries
that simply do not have a superpower’s resources. Turkey and other middle
powers may see a transactional approach as an appealing way to get ahead in
today’s world. But unless they temper it with realistic expectations, the
policy will likely cost more than it yields. Turkey’s Middle-Power
Dilemma.
If the Trump administration does not want
a crisis on its hands, it should not leave such a door open for Beijing.
The Taiwan Strait will be volatile enough over the next few years without
adding to the mix muddled Chinese perceptions of what the United States is
willing, or not willing, not do. Beijing’s Worry About the Future Could Spur a
Deadly Miscalculation Soon.
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The broader state of relations between
India and Pakistan remains extremely tense. None of the nonmilitary steps
taken earlier in the crisis have been reversed. Their main land border
remains closed, trade is still halted, diplomatic presences are downsized,
and the Indus Waters Treaty is still suspended. The Truth of What Happened
Will Not Be Known Publicly.
Following the trade war countermeasures’
temporary wind-down, which both sides had committed to doing by May 14,
there appears to be some reprieve for American rare earth importers. China
announced that it was lifting curbs for 90 days on 28 American companies to
which the export of controlled items, including the rare earths, would
otherwise have been prohibited. China Retains Rare Earth Export Controls as a
Bargaining Chip.
The West has failed to present a
compelling postwar vision for Russia and a plan to achieve it, one that is
realistic internationally and that can directly appeal to Russians
themselves. If current trends are allowed to continue, Europe may soon
encounter a completely militarized autocracy on its borders that is similar
to North Korea’s in structure, and far more dangerous. And the United
States might have to countenance a military union between Russia and
China. Putin’s New Hermit Kingdom At War With the
West and Its Elites.
Since a ceasefire was agreed on May 10,
India and Pakistan are at odds over the exact toll of the four days of
clashes that followed an attack in Kashmir. Exposing the Fake Images
Generated in the Above Context.
'Tiranga
Yatra' In India:
UK working to ensure enduring
India-Pakistan ceasefire. Obfuscation By Russia and Ukraine.
Amidst escalating tensions between India
and Pakistan, Baloch writer Mir Yar Baloch declared Balochistan's
independence, urging India to establish a Baloch embassy in New Delhi. He
appealed to the UN for peacekeeping forces and demanded the withdrawal of
the Pakistani army. The Pahalgam Incident Was Used as a
Distraction from the Fact that Balochistan Was Going To Declare
Independence.
YouTuber Arrested for Spying for
Pakistan: Haryana
Travel Blogger Jyoti Malhotra Linked to Pakistani Operatives.
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The United States, once solidly on the
front lines of technology, is now on its way to becoming a much weaker
player. And so far, it is responding to this decline by taking steps that
will only weaken it further. There has never been anything inevitable about
U.S. leadership in science and technology. What is inevitable is that if
Washington does not work to maintain its lead on this battlefield, others
will take its place. Trump’s War on Universities Could Kill U.S.
Innovation.
Turkey and Israel should build on this
dialogue, especially because both say they do not want a military
confrontation with each other. Israel’s goal should be to assert legitimate
security concerns without antagonizing Ankara or Damascus. This balancing
act is especially important during Syria’s extraordinary period of flux.
The new regime has not yet cemented its control over the country, and its
political positions seem malleable. At this stunning moment in history,
after the weakening of their mutual enemy Iran, Israel and Turkey should be
striving to craft a mutually beneficial new regional order, not coming to
blows. The Coming Clash Over Syria, Israel, and Turkey Is
on a Collision Course.
The US State Department agrees there is a
demographic divide among Americans on the topic of Israel, one that even
extends to Congress. Americans Used To Be Steadfast in Their Support for Israel.
Those Days Are Gone.
Last week, we explained why It Is
Unlikely That Pakistan Will Make a Move Towards Rapprochement, which
included an in-depth article posted on April
24, which explained the background of the overall situation. Now comes
the news that a war between India and Pakistan has started with deaths on
both sides as India launches air strikes on ‘terrorist camps’ inside
Pakistan and Islamabad retaliates: ‘Three Indian planes shot down’ as
nuclear-armed rivals go on war footing. The India-Pakistan War.
Around 550 flights were cancelled in
India and Pakistan. This Is What Is Happening.
Today, as Russia prepares to celebrate
Victory Day on May 9, 2025, Putin is determined to milk the story of his
country’s “Great Patriotic War” for all it’s worth. He may well revert the
name of the city of Volgograd to Stalingrad, it was changed in 1961 as part
of Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev’s de-Stalinization campaign, to
highlight the Red Army’s eventual victory over the Axis invaders in the
Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, the great psychological turning point of the
war. We Are Still Fighting World War II: The
Unsettled Legacy of the Conflict That Shaped Today’s Politics.
Both the Russian and Ukrainian sides are
naturally interested in creating the impression that their positions are
non-negotiable. The bargaining comes in the process. A peace agreement may
prove very difficult, perhaps impossible, to attain. But as the 2022 talks
demonstrated, failed negotiations could augur many more years of war. Why Peace Talks Fail
in Ukraine.
Over the past 14 days, since the deadly
attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Pakistan has repeatedly violated a
ceasefire agreement, targeting Indian positions along the border. Islamabad
has not commented on this. The India and Pakistan Stand Off.
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Putin has already made huge numbers of
Russians into his accomplices, and to a certain extent, that guarantees
their loyalty. But there is a downside to keeping an entire population as
political hostages. If you remove this system’s main element, Putin, it
will start to collapse. In such a scenario, as Russians adjust to new
external circumstances, new inflated expectations may arise. But by that
point, they will be directed at a new leader. Russia’s False
Euphoria.
The Houthis bet from the beginning of the
strikes that they could outlast the United States, and they did. Equally
important, the cease-fire has dashed Yemeni hopes of U.S. support for a
ground campaign, and there is a real chance that the already divided Yemeni
government could buckle under the weight of financial pressure. Today, Israel Bombs Yemen’s
Hodeidah Port after a Houthi Attack Near Tel Aviv Airport.
India-Pakistan conflict intensifies into
the most expansive in decades. Both countries reportedly aimed attacks at
each other’s territories well beyond their disputed Kashmir
border. Pakistan and India’s battles and skirmishes are away from the
public eye. Both Countries Aimed Attacks at Each Other’s
Territories Well Beyond Their Disputed Kashmir Border.
If India stops here, “so will we,” says
Pakistan’s foreign minister. We Genuinely Want Peace Without the
Hegemony of Any One Country.
U.S., China prepare for high-stakes trade
talks in Geneva. The Likelihood of the Two Sides Reaching a
Comprehensive Deal Soon Remains Low.
Further to our earlier article, India and
Pakistan appeared to be edging closer to war on Saturday, as the two
nuclear-armed nations both claimed they were provoked by the other before
launching strikes against military assets in their rival countries. India and
Pakistan Edge Closer to War as Nuclear-Armed Rivals Trade Strikes.
Later today, India and Pakistan agree to
a ceasefire, but will it hold? Soon after the cessation of firing and
military action between India and Pakistan was announced on Saturday (May
10, 2025) evening. However, Cross-Border Firing from Pakistan Was Reported
at Several Locations Along the Jammu Border.
If the U.S. president and his allies in
Austin had their way, they would define “American identity” much the way
that the Chinese government does: a conflation of national origin,
ethnicity, and political loyalty. Their tactics echo Xi’s as well. Today's China as Borrowed
from The Cold War Era Identity.
The Trump administration’s antagonism
toward the traditional transatlantic alliance could be the most
consequential trigger of further European integration since the groundwork
for the EU was laid in 1948. Europe’s commitment to the transatlantic
alliance thus far is not a symbol of weakness or of the continent’s
inability to summon the political energy to become more autonomous. The Resurgence of Europe:
How the Continent Can Survive American Antagonism and Come Out Stronger.
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Extensively covered
by us before trouble is brewing again in the Pacific. Geography and the
Construction of Today’s China.
If the United States, in cooperation with
its allies and partners, adopts and implements the right policies, it can
regain the technological initiative and protect its intelligence operations
and military communications around the world. But to do so, it must ensure
that advanced, trusted, and secure digital infrastructure, designed and
produced outside of China, remains available – and becomes the technology
of choice, both at home and abroad. China Is Still Winning the Battle for 5G, and 6G
America Must Do More to Compete with Huawei.
For now, Moscow is tied down in Ukraine
and cannot afford to pursue more expansionist undertakings. But should the
Trump administration decide that Ukraine does not merit U.S. partnership
and cooperation, Putin’s ambitions will only grow, along with the cost of
deterring Russia in the future. If Washington abandons Ukraine now, Europe
could become the consuming crisis of Trump’s second term. What If
America Abandons Ukraine? The Biggest Risk Might Be to the Rest of Europe.
One
intriguing point highlighted by Ukraine’s government is that for the first
decade of the reconstruction investment fund, profits will be “fully
reinvested in Ukraine’s economy”, either in new projects or
reconstruction. This Could Be Potentially Significant.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly
claimed that China has reached out for talks on the tariffs. On April 30,
Trump reiterated there was a “very good chance we’re going to make a
deal”. The Tariff and Trade Wars.
To reduce the risks of catastrophic
conflict, strategists in Beijing and Washington should look inward and
scrutinize their leadership before the uneasy stalemate can no longer hold.
Will China Escalate? Despite Short-Term
Stability, the Risk of Military Crisis Is Rising.
Despite Trump’s cordial conversation with
Zelensky at the Vatican on the margins of Pope Francis’ funeral last
week, and the minerals deal that soon followed, a photograph of Putin and
Zelensky shaking hands on the White House lawn is unlikely. Trump,
Ukraine, and the Limits of Presidential Peacemaking.
Blooming
peach blossoms against a backdrop of snow-capped peaks at Gala Village,
near the city of Nyingchi, Tibet.
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Possibly influenced by their colleague,
Elon Musk, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Vice President JD Vance took
turns on Friday blasting Germany after its
domestic intelligence agency officially labeled the far-right Alternative
für Germany party (AfD) an “extremist endeavor.” Germany’s Equivalent of the
FBI Released a Statement Summing Up Their Investigation That Led to the New
Classification for the Eurosceptic AfD.
The “de minimis” trade exemption allowing
online retailers and marketplaces to ship low-cost items without paying
duties was closed Friday, likely increasing the prices of items sold on
Temu, Shein, eBay, and Etsy, among others. Key Tariff Loophole.
Donald Trump has posted an AI-generated
image of himself in papal regalia, just 11 days after Pope Francis’
death. He said to reporters on the White House lawn: “I’d like to be
Pope. That
would be my number one choice.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio
criticized Germany for classifying the right-wing extremist organization
“Alternative für Deutschland” as ‘tyranny’ upon which Germany tried to
explain why it is an extremist neo-Nazi type organization. Germany Defends Afd
Extremist Classification.
Pakistan conducts training launch of
surface-to-surface missile amid fears of military escalation with India
over deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir. Pakistan’s Military Launch
of the Abdali Weapon System.
After Pakistan test-fired a
ballistic missile as tensions with India spiked yesterday, we focused on
Pakistan’s Launch of the Abdali Weapon System. Today, we will focus on why
a lack of crisis mechanisms could spark conflict with India after the deadly
Kashmir attack. Why It Is Unlikely That Pakistan Will Make a Move
Towards Rapprochement.
If proponents of global development
embrace industrial transformation as their lodestar, they can help lift
people out of destitution while avoiding political blowback. If poor
countries industrialize, the entire world will benefit. Global development
has the best chance of surviving and delivering results if it is seen as
more than just charity. The End of the Global Aid Industry USAID’s Demise Is
an Opportunity to Prioritize Industrialization Over Charity.
At the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar,
Bangladesh, March 2025
European security experts have been
calling for integration for many years. Yet in practice, policymakers have
doubled down on protecting their own institutions rather than fashioning a
much-needed new template for European order. The shock of Russia’s
full-scale invasion of Ukraine led Europeans to launch a broad rearmament
effort to defend the continent against military invasion. Europe Needs a New
Way to Cooperate.
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That
the leaders of both India and Pakistan are incentivized to stand firm
reduces the space for compromise and increases the likelihood of
confrontation. The risks of escalation, whether intentional or accidental,
are higher than ever, with the consequences of miscalculation potentially
calamitous for South Asia and the world. The Real Risk of Escalation in Kashmir.
U.S. diplomatic funding and priorities
should be brought into alignment with the National Security Strategy. And
American diplomats should be barred from promoting progressive causes that
embolden opponents and undermine friends, causes that most Americans do not
support. The Return of Great-Power Diplomacy.
A viable short-term solution is to make
the attacker country’s denial as implausible as possible. To do this,
governments must be prepared to share more evidence with the public,
understandably, and manage the tradeoff between reaping the benefits of greater
openness and protecting intelligence sources. The Power of Denial.
The decisions that Washington and its allies
make now, in the early days of a new nuclear age, will dictate the
direction of energy security, the global economy, and the shape of power
for decades to come. The US is Falling Behind China and Russia on
Energy Innovation.
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If
Trump wants to secure an agreement, he may have to join the Chinese people
in “eating bitterness” and accept some tough compromises. But with a
recalibrated diplomatic strategy, he could still claim some small victories
and avoid the massive potential losses now facing the United States. How China Armed
Itself for the Trade War.
Following
the Pahalgam incident, Pakistan’s
information minister said early on April 30 that Islamabad had “credible
intelligence” that India was planning an imminent military strike, and he
vowed a “decisive response”, as worries of spiralling conflict grew over a
deadly attack in Kashmir. Will it Lead to War?
Because
the conflict is overwhelmingly driven by a struggle over regional power and
resources, rather than any larger political vision for the country, it
remains likely that alliances will keep shifting, militias will keep
defecting, and breakaway groups will keep forming. Sudan Is Unraveling: Why
War Is Likely to Once Again Tear the Country Apart.
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Israel’s current approach resembles its
efforts to create a security zone in southern Lebanon in the 1980s and
1990s, which resulted in a war of attrition that deepened Lebanese
resentment and made it much easier for Hezbollah to take over the country
upon the IDF’s withdrawal in 2000. Israel must not repeat this
mistake. The new Syrian government needs to be judged by its actions
and not only its words. But it presents Israel with a potentially golden
opportunity to deepen Iran’s isolation, turn Syria from a foe into a
peaceful neighbor, and stabilize its region. Israel’s Dangerous
Overreach in Syria.
A China that looks like the creator of a
peaceful order in the 2040s will be much harder to argue against in the
West and the wider world than its current confrontational incarnation. It
is unclear whether China can take that path. Still, over the past century,
the least reliable way to predict what China will look like in 20 years has
always been to extrapolate in a straight line from where it is now. The Once and Future
China.
A New International Order? U.S. President Donald
Trump is Trashing the World Trade System over a Basic Economic Fallacy.
Protectionism grants states too much
arbitrary power to intervene in the market and thus spawns more platforms
for the exchange of political favors. This is not the path toward business
regeneration but one toward the demise of capitalism and transparent
governance. How Tariffs Erode Democracy.
Without an understanding of the special
role played by the U.S. military, outsiders attempting to make it run like
a business will fail. And their failures will represent more than a missed
opportunity; they will weaken the United States, benefit its adversaries,
and poison the well for more thoughtful plans for change in the
future. The Pentagon Can’t Be Run Like a Business.
Further to our earlier comment, reminiscent of the Oberoi Hotel
attack, but worse, when militants opened fire on tourists and killed 26 people in
Indian-administered Kashmir. Earlier, the United States, the former
Soviet Union, and China all accorded Kashmir a place in their strategic
agendas. The Pahalgam Attack.
Institutions that are flexible enough to
preserve progress on yesterday’s issues but not constrain progress on those
of today. They need to better understand what challenges they are facing.
And they need to better invest in how the country responds to change. Yesterday’s Economic Thinking
Can’t Solve Today’s Economic Problems.
A federal judge was arrested for
helping an undocumented alien in her Courthouse.
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Just as U.S. strategists during the Cold
War discovered when the Soviets achieved nuclear parity, their successors
facing a world of long-range precision-guided conventional weapons today
may find that a stable balance of deterrence remains possible. It will
depend, however, on U.S. forces acquiring a credible and assured
conventional second-strike capability. This will force Washington to make
difficult choices amid sharp political and budgetary debates. But the
approach is feasible. The Conventional Balance of Terror: America Needs a
New Triad to Restore Its Eroding Deterrence.
India's Response to the Pahalgam Attack. The number of terrorists
involved could range from five to seven. They were aided by at least two
local militants who received training in Pakistan, the officials said. Security Forces Arrested Two
Terrorist Associates.
Ukraine deserves a better peace deal. Trump’s Current Proposal
Favors Russia More Than it Should.
The values and strategy that Francis
brought to international engagement are rooted in the gospel; they are not
unique to him. His diplomatic style, moreover, is taught to the Vatican’s
corps of priest-diplomats at the world’s oldest diplomacy school, the
Pontifical Ecclesiastical Academy. The Pope’s Foreign Policy; How Francis Extended
and Transformed the Vatican’s Global Reach.
Earlier news was that Yemeni factions are looking to
utilize ongoing US airstrikes against the Houthis to oust the group that
took control of the capital, Sanaa. The Iran Backed Houthis Struck Back.
Trumpists want a pope "soft enough
to be able to control him." Today, Donald Trump's administration
would like to see a more conservative pope emerge. Among those likely
to be lobbying for a conservative successor to Francis are Raymond Burke, a
Donald Trump-supporting US bishop, and Gerhard Müller, a German who warned
last week that the church could split if an orthodox pope is not
elected. Lobbying for next pope heats up, with outcome less
predictable than ever. Conclave.
US Reaper drone losses mount in Yemen as
campaign against Houthis intensifies. Civilian Casualties Raise Alarm.
Meeting
on the sidelines of the Pope's funeral. Trump said the highlighted words to
Zelenski:
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Israeli officials have vowed to prevent Tehran
from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and Netanyahu has insisted that any
negotiation with Iran must lead to the complete dismantling of its nuclear
program. Israel is Still Eyeing a Limited Attack on Iran's
Nuclear Facilities.
Kim Kardashian will testify in person at
an upcoming trial over a 2016 heist in Paris in which armed robbers tied
her up and locked her in a bathroom while they stole millions of dollars’
worth of jewelry. The Heist in Paris.
Three former Presidents said that norms
are being disregarded, and extraordinary measures are
required. Trump’s violations of legal and democratic principles make
him unfit for the presidency. Unusual Times for American Democracy.
Drones deliver supplies on Mount Everest.
The Forever Change of Climbing.
Pope Francis, the first Latin American
leader of the Roman Catholic Church, has died. He Sought to Overhaul
the Institution.
As soon as one succeeds in increasing its
trade balance at the expense of the rest, others retaliate, and the total
volume of international trade sinks continuously. The Trump Global
Trading System.
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A security architecture in the Ukraine
War no longer dependent on Washington is within reach, but only if Europe
finds the political will to act now. If it does, this may well be the
defining moment that secures its future, sovereignty, and relevance on the
global stage. Europe Must Take the Challenge: Secure its Future.
In a rush to export its goods amid
incoming US tariffs, China said its economy had beaten its anticipated
first-quarter growth rate. Chinese Economy Grows 5.4%, Surpassing Quarterly
Forecasts.
Only a major drive to rebuild the arsenal
of democracy can deter China from taking Taiwan by force or other countries
from similarly challenging the United States. As U.S. General Douglas
MacArthur prophetically proclaimed in 1940: “The history of failure in war
can almost be summed up in two words: Too late.” The Empty Arsenal of
Democracy.
Trump seems unlikely to stick to any
parameters that might mitigate the conflicts among great powers that would
inevitably crop up. Nor is it easy to imagine Putin and Xi as enlightened
partners, embracing self-abnegation and settling differences in the name of
the greater good. Great Power Competition Returned.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short
his two-day visit to Saudi Arabia and returned to New Delhi on the morning
of April 23 because of the worst attack on civilians in India since
the 2008 Mumbai shootings, in which more than 160 people were killed.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman was also cutting short her visit to the
US and Peru. Reminiscent of the Oberoi Hotel Attack, but Worse.
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Mozart Concerto
no. 23 in A major k. 488 / Elisey Mysin / Makhachkala
Since the end of the Cold War, the United
States has largely been expected to follow one of two foreign policy paths:
preserve the country’s position as the leader of the liberal international
order or withdraw and adjust to a post-American, multipolar world. The most
likely trajectory was always a third: become a rogue superpower, neither
internationalist nor isolationist but aggressive, powerful, and
increasingly out for itself. The Age of American Unilateralism.
Xi arrived in Kuala Lumpur from Vietnam,
where he pledged to resist “unilateral bullying”– a veiled reference
to US President Donald Trump’s inconsistent stance on tariffs. To meet
Malaysia’s King, Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar, at Istana Negara in the morning. President Xi’s Asia
Tour.
Beijing insists it will stand firm in the
face of Donald Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods. However, Chinese
officials have acknowledged the potential for economic pain resulting
from the unfolding trade war with the US. Hence, the Locals.
China
will continue, under any future circumstance, to undermine the very
cooperation among the rebels in Myanmar that is necessary to one day form a
peaceful, stable, and federal democratic Myanmar. China has no genuine
interest in peace or stability in Myanmar; it wants strategic dominance.
And if Beijing can best grow its influence by playing Myanmar’s factions
off one another, keeping them weak, fragmented, and dependent on China,
then that is what it will do. China’s Double Game in Myanmar.
The recent change in U.S. leadership
caught Europe unprepared. So will a sudden changing of the guard in the
Kremlin unless the West more actively imagines what its relationship with
Russia could be after Putin. A forever war that cycles between cold and hot
is not inevitable. But if Western leaders postpone discussing a different
vision, they risk abetting Putin’s efforts to make confrontation with the
West a permanent legacy. Moscow, the West, and Coexistence Without Illusion.
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China to convene UN meeting to blast
‘bullying’ US for weaponizing tariffs, sparking trade war. Meeting to Accuse the
US of Bullying and “Casting a Shadow over the Global Efforts for Peace and
Development” by Weaponizing Tariffs.
US mulls backing ground offensive against
Yemen’s Houthis. Yemeni Factions,
Alongside the UAE, are Looking to Utilize the US Air Campaign to Mount a
Ground Offensive Against the Houthis.
Maryland
Democrat meets with Abrego Garcia (whose full name is “Kilmar Abrego
Garcia”), mistakenly deported to El Salvador. The President of El
Salvador claimed in the White House that he could not return the man. The US District Court
is Now Ordering an Expedited Recovery.
‘Sipping margaritas’ is the latest
example in Bukele’s propaganda machine, which also includes ‘Margarita
gate’. The
Duplicity of the Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele.
The competition for AI leadership is
likely to end up being mostly about adoption. It is the adoption of AI in
the U.S. military, government, and private sector, and the ability of U.S.
firms to export AI technologies to the rest of the world. AI Race Winning Means
Deploying, Not Just Developing, the Best Technology.
Hopes for Iran nuclear talks tempered by
threats and mixed messages. A Deal or a War.
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The Chinese Communist Party is
inordinately focused on perceptions of American power, and a critical input
in that equation is its estimation of Washington’s ability to pull in the
allies and partners that even Beijing openly admits are the United States’
greatest advantage. Underestimating China.
The Trump administration is embarking on
an economic equivalent of the Vietnam War, a war of choice that
will soon result in a quagmire, undermining faith at home and abroad in
both the trustworthiness and the competence of the United States, and we
all know how that turned out. Trade Wars are Easy to Lose.
When US President Donald Trump suggested
that Canada stole the American auto industry, this seemed like a lie.
Because they've always been Canadian jobs, Canada created them and
sustained them. In Canada's Car Capital, Auto Workers Brace for the
Worst.
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Coercion will ultimately weaken the
United States, not strengthen it. Without its allies and partners, U.S.
leadership in Asia and around the world will erode. This will not make
America great again - it will leave it weaker abroad and poorer at home. How Trump’s Coercion Could
Backfire in Asia.
In continuing to engage in some form of
export control diplomacy, doing the long, arduous, sometimes frustrating,
but strategically rewarding work of persuading countries that it is in the
collective interest of the United States and its allies to act together to
maintain a technological lead over China. The Case for
Export-Control Diplomacy.
Chinese
President Xi On His Southeast Asia Tour.
Elephants form an ‘alert circle’ to
protect the young during an earthquake. The Video shows the adult elephant
herd forming a protective circle around a youngster.
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Washington has been the world’s most powerful
force for clean governance, pressuring and sanctioning corrupt elites
elsewhere. But Trump has moved to suspend enforcement of the Foreign
Corrupt Practices Act and backtrack on corporate transparency requirements.
The United States, in other words, is not just abandoning its historical
role as the world’s clean-governance policeman. The Economic
Consequences of State Capture.
Just as in China, European platforms may
continue to use the Internet as the technological foundation for their
services. But they will begin to construct their alternative platforms on
top, walled away from U.S. interference through Europe-only business models
and strong encryption. The Brewing Transatlantic Tech War.
Trying to peel Russia away from China is
both imprudent and wrong. It would be imprudent, above all, because it
would hand Putin a dangerous amount of power. Moscow would become the pivot
player in the competition between Beijing and Washington, with ties to both
and space to maneuver to its advantage. China and Russia Will Not Be Split.
French
President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday called for a suspension of investment
in the United States until Donald Trump's "brutal and unfounded"
new tariffs against Europe and the rest of the world were
clarified. He said President Trump’s decision was brutal and
unfounded. Underneath as Echo's by Canada, Spain,
Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland and the European Parliament.
Five days after France’s far-right leader
Marine Le Pen was convicted of embezzling millions of euros from the
European Parliament, President Donald Trump is suddenly decrying the
verdict. Trump Rages at Far-Right Leader’s Guilty Verdict.
‘Larger-than-expected’ tariffs mean
higher inflation, slower growth: US Fed chief Powell. Trump tariff
tailspin worsens, moving stock markets into bear market. Decline Since the
Onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic in March 2020.
On the outskirts of the Indonesian city of
Semarang in Central Java, a new factory is cranking out solar cells and
assembling solar panels with the help of robots while autonomous carts
whizz around, ferrying parts and components. China’s Great Green
March Across the Globe.
Over
the past three months, the Trump administration has shown doubts about the
United States’ commitments to its partners. However, the U.S. military
establishment still has an interest in developing its capacity in concert
with partner forces, which also have an interest in deepening security
cooperation as Beijing becomes increasingly assertive. One Needs an
Indian Ocean Strategy.
Tens of thousands of military reservists
have already served hundreds of days each during the war, which has taken a
heavy toll on their careers and families. Israel has, in fact, never faced
so much ambivalence about military service on the part of its reservists -
not even during its politically controversial 1982 war in Lebanon or during
the second intifada. The Forever War in Gaza. Leaders on Both
Sides, and in America, Have Little Incentive to End It.
Dow futures fall 1,300 points, S&P
500 set to enter bear market on Trump tariff market collapse. Markets Today.
Beautiful Barber's
Adagio, Theme from Platoon, Andrzej Kucybała conductor
Taiwan Open to U.S. Tariff Talks Amid
Market Volatility. Taiwan Says It Is Open to Negotiations With the
U.S.
If Trump and Hegseth succeed in imposing
their new bargain, the U.S. military will no longer excel at its main
purpose: defending American citizens against serious threats from
abroad. The Dangerous New Civil-Military Bargain Trump’s
Demands for Loyalty Will Weaken the U.S. Armed Forces.
The dollar has not always been the
world’s reserve currency or the currency of choice for international trade.
In the nineteenth century, it was the pound sterling that enjoyed that
status, and British financiers would have felt secure in its reign. There
was nothing inevitable about the pound’s slide or the dollar’s emergence,
just as there is nothing inevitable about the dollar’s potential demise
today. Choices, not destiny, determine reserve currencies; if the dollar is
finally dethroned, it will be a disaster of the Trump administration’s own
making. The World’s Reserve Currency May Not Survive the
Weaponization of U.S. Economic Power.
In a scientific breakthrough that could
forever change how humans interact with our planet, Colossal Biosciences
said it has brought back an extinct animal that last walked the Earth
roughly 10,000 years ago: the dire wolf. Dire wolf revived after 10,000
years. Revived
the Dire Wolves after Sequencing the Species' Genome..
The Signal discussion didn’t touch on how
the Yemen bombings would affect Washington’s current diplomatic overture to
Tehran. Hegseth and the President likely think it can’t hurt: Tehran will
see Trump’s Washington as tougher for it and capable of coercing the
Iranians into nuclear negotiations. The Vice President doesn’t believe
Washington should go to war with Tehran over the nuclear issue, let alone
Suez Canal traffic. If he isn’t willing to bomb an Iranian proxy for fear
of a slippery slope, then he is surely unlikely to want to bomb its
sponsor. Why Bombing
the Houthis Won’t Work.
China has been the top foreign supplier
of goods to the US, accounting for up to 16% of total imports in recent
years, according to the USTR. It dominates the market in smartphones,
computers, and toys, and it is likely to be hit by massive price hikes
that take them out of reach of many Americans when the new tariffs come
into force. US Slams 104% Tariffs on China..
All people born in British Mandatory
Palestine between 1923 and 1948 (today's Israel) had "Palestine"
stamped on their passports at the time. But when they were called
Palestinians, the Arabs were offended. They complained: "We are not
Palestinians, we are Arabs. The Palestinians are the Jews". Given the
situation today, International institutions, including the EU and the
United Nations, should demand that Israel uphold international law on
minority rights. If Israel refuses to reverse its latest anti-Arab laws and
continues turning a blind eye to Jewish Israeli extremism, these
organizations should urge international, economic, and academic
institutions connected to Israel to make their relationship with Israel
contingent on the protection of Palestinian citizens. The Other War on
Palestinians.
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In the Budapest Memorandum, signed in
December of that year by Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the
United States, Kyiv agreed to give up Soviet nuclear weapons in its
possession - including more than a thousand warheads capable of hitting the
United States - in exchange for security assurances. With this outstanding
security problem ostensibly solved, Ukraine (and the question of its NATO
membership) abruptly decreased in significance to Washington. Why They Fight What’s at
Stake in the Blame Game Over Ukraine.
China calls for the world to unite
against Trump's 'trade tyranny'. Trump Tariffs Effect.
EU backs first countermeasures against US
tariffs: It said it would start to collect duties from April 15,
stressing that “these countermeasures can be suspended at any time, should
the US agree to a fair and balanced negotiated outcome,” meaning there is a
European long end bonds slump..
The increasingly vicious trade war
between Washington and Beijing took another turn Wednesday when China
imposed an additional 50% tariff on imports from the U.S., hiking its
levies on American imports to 84%. The tit-for-tat escalation came hours
after President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese imports went into
effect, including the 50% Trump added Monday. Why the USA is Losing
Many Billions of Dollars
on trade with virtually every country it does business with.
The most effective U.S. strategy - the
one that has most unsettled Beijing in recent years and can deter its
adventurism in the future - is to build new, enduring, and robust
capacities with these states. A sustained, bipartisan commitment to an
upgraded alliance network, coupled with strategic cooperation in emerging
fields, offers the best path forward to finding scale against the most
formidable competitor the United States has ever encountered. Underestimating
China.
As the US ambassador to Kyiv steps down,
Donald Trump has pledged that US officials will look into evidence that
Chinese mercenaries are fighting alongside Russian forces against
Ukraine. The Evidence.
A U.S. ballerina jailed for 12 years in
Russia after donating $51 to a charity has been freed, according to
her lawyer and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. She was arrested in
Yekaterinburg in February last year after returning to Russia to visit her
family. LA Ballerina Freed in US-Russia Prisoner Swap.
A gradual exit from the European theater,
during which the United States slowly removes military assets so that
European countries can replace them with their own, would be vastly
preferable to an abrupt withdrawal. Rushed changes could leave vacuums of power
conducive to fear and suspicion. Properly planned for, a rearmed Germany
could be just the right size for Europe. The Zeitenwende is
Real.
Iran and the United States have a
bitterly adversarial history. There is a chasm of mistrust between the two
countries that diplomacy will struggle to bridge. But an agreement remains
possible. Iran needs a deal. Trump wants one. And the alternative to successful
negotiations would be catastrophic. The Case for a “Trump to Tehran” Strategy.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has broken his
silence on the deepening trade war with the United States, saying there
will be "no winners." He warned President Donald Trump that
China is "not afraid" - and shortly after his statement, Beijing
announced reciprocal tariffs of 125% on all U.S. imports. Called on the
European Union to join hands to resist. America vs. China.
Many will have seen the pictures of a
young woman (a researcher at Harvard Medical School) who,
screaming in panic, was arrested on the orders of President Trump. We Tell You Who She Is.
Not only do the tariffs on China make all
processed industrial materials exponentially more expensive, but they also
delay the progress the US will be able to make. In a post from its
official account, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the U.S. of
"capricious and destructive behavior" and vowed not to bow to
American pressure. Today's 'Tariff War'.
Trump, for now, is excluding tariffs on
smartphones, prompting Americans to purchase them quickly
before Trump changes his mind:
Live Footage of American Planes Bombing
The Area Around Sanaa Airport (Yemen).
In Sudan, the paramilitaries have stepped
up their attacks on el-Fasher, the only state capital in Darfur still
outside their control, after the army recaptured the national capital
Khartoum last month. Sudan Today.
The Painted Lady butterfly (Vanessa
cardui) undertakes the longest known butterfly migration, an annual,
multigenerational journey between Europe and tropical Africa. In search of
blooming flowers and host plants, these butterflies travel more than 9,000
miles round-trip, crossing deserts, seas, and mountains along the way..
On the observation deck of the Eiffel
Tower in Paris is a tribute to the 1889 World Expo, the very event that led
to its creation. Opening Today. The Expo 2025 will be held to achieve
a society in which the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal,17
sustainable development goals set out at the United Nations Summit on
Sustainable Development held at the United Nations Headquarters in
September 2015, have been achieved. With five years remaining until
2030, the target year for achieving the SDGs, 2025 is an Extremely
Important Year for Accelerating Efforts to Achieve Them.
They came to the US as kids for a better
life. Now, they’re leaving for Europe as seniors and Crossing the Atlantic
for a Better Life.
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Most Latin American countries do not
currently see Beijing as a threat to their economies, their democratic
systems, or the security of their citizens, but as a source of investment,
infrastructure, and export markets unencumbered by the historical baggage
of U.S. interventionism. Why the Western Hemisphere is Turning Away from
America and toward China.
The Trump administration continues to
create headlines, but the real story may be elsewhere. Asia Is
Getting Dangerously Unbalanced.
China,
on Tuesday, April 1, sent its army, navy, air, and rocket forces to
surround Taiwan for drills Beijing said were aimed at practicing a blockade
of the self-ruled island. Taiwan dispatched its aircraft and ships,
deployed land-based missile systems in response to the drills, and accused
Beijing of being the world’s “biggest troublemaker.” China insists that
democratic Taiwan is part of its territory and has threatened to use force
to bring it under its control. Potential Flashpoint.
On 1 April, a massive inferno was seen in
Putra Heights, Malaysia, with flames visible from Subang Jaya.
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Even in a world without a stable
structure, the Trump administration can still use American power,
alliances, and economic statecraft to defuse tension, minimize conflict,
and furnish a baseline of cooperation among countries big and small. American Power in the
New Age of Nationalism.
PLA joint exercises code-named Strait
Thunder-2025A continue around the island of Taiwan for a second day. Day 2 of Beijing Military
Drills in Taiwan Strait Focuses on Blockade.
Maintaining a military presence is an
investment the United States must make as the Middle East transitions, new
leaders shore up popular support, and new security arrangements
emerge. The Narrow Path to a New Middle East.
On 27 March 2025, Andrzej
Duda President of Poland since 6 August 2015 (himself a
Knight of the Order Malta) went on an official visit to the Grand
Master of the Order of Malta to discuss a solution to the conflict in
Ukraine. The
Order of Malta?
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A multi-story structure collapsed in
Bangkok after a rare 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck midday Friday, sending
the crane on top toppling to the ground and a massive plume of dust into
the air. Thai emergency responders say two people have been found
dead, and an unknown number of others are still under the rubble of a
building that collapsed after a massive earthquake hit the capital. Bangkok Under State of
Emergency | 7.7 Magnitude Earthquake.
Recently presented by Steven
Colbert, Chuck Schumer's book (leader of the Democratic Party in the US)
about Antisemitism gives an excellent historical overview of the
issue. Antisemitism, an Overview.
Thailand’s capital grinds to a
halt amid fear and chaos. After the Quake.
Freedom of navigation may be a national
interest, but that’s only up to a point. The U.S. military is for hire,
even if there has been no request for its services. How the Signal
Chat Leak makes the NSA’s job harder now that everyone uses the same communications
technologies, security vulnerabilities are amplified. What Signalgate Tells Us.
The quake, which hit around lunchtime on
March 28, impacted wide swathes of the country, from the central plains
around Mandalay to the hills of Shan, parts of which are not completely
under the junta’s control. ASEAN Recognizes the Urgent Need for Humanitarian
Assistance for Myanmar.
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Ultimately, Europe has no way out of its
strategic trilemma that does not involve painful tradeoffs. It is,
therefore, no surprise that European leaders have thus far avoided making
plans for the continent’s post-American defense. Europe’s Nuclear
Trilemma.
Democracy in the United States faces a
serious threat, but the case is not hopeless. Its defenders have a wide
array of levers they can pull to oppose Trump and his allies’ attempts to
consolidate power. How to Save a Democracy.
Israel has troops in Lebanon, Syria, and
Gaza. It’s vowed to demilitarize huge swaths of all three – backed by an
unquestioning ally in the White House. The war in Gaza, which Israel
restarted earlier this month, looks increasingly like it will lead to occupation
for months or even years to come:
If leaders fail to seize this moment,
they will cede control to external techno-powers with little incentive to
respect Europe’s needs or ideals. Once this window closes, catching up - or
even keeping pace - will be nearly impossible. Europe Must Avoid
Becoming a Digital Colony.
A subject we have previously referred to
now seems to come close to a boiling point. the
Chinese military announced large-scale drills in the waters
around Taiwan, as it warned the self-ruled island against seeking
independence. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense said it had
tracked 19 Chinese navy vessels in the waters surrounding the island. China’s
Campaign Against Taiwan.
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Many undocumented immigrants in the USA file tax returns with the
I.R.S., giving the agency information about where they live, their
families, their employers, and their earnings. I.R.S. to Help Find Immigrants Targeted for
Deportation.
Major Case Study: The
People’s Republic of China (PRC) may be helping to advance Houthi capabilities as part of an arrangement
to protect PRC ships in the Red Sea. They reportedly advised the Houthis to
avoid targeting PRC-affiliated shipping while continuing attacks on
Western-linked vessels. The PRC has called for an end to Houthi attacks but
has generally refrained from directly criticizing the Houthis. The PRC Denied Exporting
Drones or Military Technologies to the Houthis.
Israel threatened to permanently seize
parts of the Gaza Strip if Hamas does not release all remaining hostages,
marking a major escalation in the conflict just days after airstrikes from
the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shattered a monthslong cease-fire with
Hamas. Growing Public Dissent Could Hinder Israel’s
Efforts.
Achieving a rapid expansion of defense
industrial capability to sustain Ukraine in addition to regenerating
military forces would see the cost grow even higher. So far, European
states have been reluctant to commit resources. Europe’s War in Ukraine.
The Islands Caught in Global Crosshairs. Geopolitical Flash
Points, from Nauru to Greenland.
Jordanians are used to warnings, usually
overblown and often originating from outside the kingdom, that the country
is on the brink. However, the widespread panic and concerted opposition
within Jordan suggest that the looming crisis is sui generis in its
severity. Jordan’s Looming Crisis.
The United States is now operating
largely by Beijing’s standards, with a new economic model characterized by
protectionism, constraints on foreign investment, subsidies, and industrial
policy - essentially nationalist state capitalism. In the war over who gets
to define the rules of the road, the battle is over, at least for
now. China
Has Already Remade the International System.
As far-right populist leaders proudly
purport to represent the people, European moderates must point out that
there is nothing patriotic about their support for Europe’s security and
prosperity. Only by exposing these inconsistencies - and highlighting the
steep costs. Italy’s Meloni and the False Promise of Moderation.
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The increase in the number of wildfires
worldwide is due to climate change. Today, in South
Korea, a Historic Buddhist temple burned:
Without the support of the United States,
it will struggle to remain coordinated, focused, and disciplined in helping
Kyiv. Almost as soon as the war commenced, it seemed as if Russia was
destined to be at least partially defeated, with any settlement
disappointing the Russians. Putin’s Theories of Victory.
Beijing stands ready to present itself as
a dependable partner. The “profound changes” Xi sees in Europe and the
United States may not yet have allowed Beijing to reimagine its
relationships with the West, but the story across the rest of the globe may
prove quite different. China Sees Opportunity in Trump’s Upheaval.
The key to achieving a peace settlement
is for Ukraine to enter negotiations from a position of strength, Russia
from a position of weakness, and the United States in a position of
influence over both parties. The Perils of “Russia First”: Appeasing Moscow Didn’t
Work in the Past.
Japanese troops are not likely to be able
to deploy in large numbers abroad, and the Japanese government will not
eagerly turn to military force over diplomacy. Both Tokyo and Washington
must adjust their expectations for what Japan - and other partners facing
similar demographic declines - can reasonably achieve, especially in the
long term, when the consequences of an aging and shrinking population will
be even more severe. The Japanese Military Has a People Problem When
Depopulation Becomes a National Security Risk.
Not counting the United States, NATO’s
other 31 members comprise a population of more than 600 million people as
well as a collection of economic resources more than ten times those of
Russia. These countries, despite having had to rely on the United States
for so long, are fully capable of ensuring their future security for
themselves. NATO Without America: How Europe Can Run an
Alliance Designed for U.S. Control.
It has been a whirlwind of a week thanks
to Signalgate - the group chat heard around the world. The evolving scandal
has already prompted major concern in Washington and beyond.
Signalgate was the main topic in hearings held by both the House
and Senate intelligence committees this week. The hearings became extremely
contentious at times, but we still have many open questions about how
it all happened and what the broader consequences will be. On paper, these
hearings were meant to focus on the U.S. intelligence community’s annual
threat assessment. Signal Group Chat Fiasco.
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Where
Washington, until recently, was considered the primary check on regionally
expansionist regimes, it now appears to be encouraging those same regimes,
and even imitating them. Whether this transition ultimately returns to a
predictable balance of power or inaugurates a prolonged period of
instability and war will depend on how effectively spheres of influence are
contested, and how far countries such as China, India, Iran, Russia, and
the United States are willing to go to secure them. The Return of Spheres
of Influence.
Ukraine and the United States will be in
a better position to negotiate peace and to deny Russia’s unacceptable
demands for a settlement with Washington committed diplomatically and
financially to Kyiv’s defense. But if that path becomes lost, everything
will not be lost to Ukraine. After withstanding repeated Russian
aggression that began in 2014, building an army that repelled Russia’s
full-scale invasion in 2022, and maintaining a strong defense in the three
years since, it seems very unlikely that Ukrainians will unilaterally
surrender now. And with Europe heeding the call to a united defense, they
may not need to. The Key to Ukraine’s Survival.
Tehran is determined to prevent domestic
divisions from weakening the country’s ability to withstand pressure.
Limited social and political openings are a calculated strategy to diffuse
public frustration before it escalates into mass unrest. If the past is
prologue, this approach could allow the Islamic Republic to frame any
conflict with the United States not as a struggle for regime survival but
as a sovereign nation’s resistance against external coercion. Can Iran Save
Itself?
Fear
generates an impulse to fight back against U.S. adversaries on all possible
fronts. But if a country gives in to the impulse to fight everywhere all at
once it sows the seeds of its decline. The Fragile Axis of Upheaval.
While Hamas and its allies suffered
severe setbacks in the current war that began on October 7, Their Ambition to
Destroy Israel Has Not Disappeared.
Good statecraft requires setting
realistic goals and dedicating the necessary resources to achieve them.
Trump understands better than most the importance of exercising leverage to
meet his objectives. Washington has historically been most effective
when it has drummed up support from its friends. By working with others,
the United States increases its leverage and becomes more powerful. How to Match Ends and
Means in the Middle East.
Debates over the balance of the Chinese
and U.S. navies should consider the dynamics of competitive production
in long wars at sea. Historical analogies can influence sound defense
policy decision-making only so much. But they can help identify potential
errors - such as being caught in a long naval war against a larger
adversary, and without an industrial capacity to truly compete. The Real Threat Posed by
Beijing’s Fast-Growing Navy.
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If Trump’s moves lead to a dramatic
decline in surveilling Russia, it will not be the first time the U.S.
intelligence community will have taken its eye off the ball. In the 1990s,
after the end of the Cold War, there was a similar shift in attention away
from Russia, one that resulted in a significant loss of expertise in
Russian affairs and an underestimation of risks on the part of Washington.
This intelligence decline very likely contributed to the West’s misjudging
of Putin during his early years in power, when he laid the foundations for
renewed Russian autocracy and confrontation with Europe and the United
States. Arsonist, Killer, Saboteur, Spy While Trump Courts
Him, Putin Is Escalating Russia’s Hybrid War Against the West.
Trump may be more likely to draw the
United States into a war than people think. The president appears most
interested in ending conflicts in pursuit of his much-desired Nobel Peace
Prize. But he talks loudly. And if the United States is attacked, Americans
are willing to let him wield a big stick. Would Americans Go to
War Against China?
The Houthis realize they are currently at
a disadvantage but are counting on the United States losing interest
throughout a protracted military campaign. In other words, America’s
limitation is what the Houthis will count on to avoid a collapse similar to
the Assad regime and Hezbollah. Is This Game Over for the Houthis?
Erdogan may aspire to be like Putin, but
Turkey is not Russia. Unlike Russia, which thrives on resource wealth,
Turkey’s economy is deeply dependent on foreign investment. Investors are
already fleeing as the country grows more authoritarian, and a slide into
full autocracy will hardly bring them back. The Turkish economy would
remain mired in crisis. And even a strongman must deliver results to
maintain his grip on power. Turkey Is Now a Dictatorship.
Since World War II, many countries have
grown accustomed to and benefited greatly from the relative stability of
the U.S.-led order and the respect for territorial sovereignty it enforces.
It is difficult to pinpoint how far the system could unravel if current
constraints on territorial conquest continue to erode. Conquest Is Back.
IDF will seize Gaza land permanently
until Hamas releases hostages, Defense Minister Israel Katz says.
President Trump said on Wednesday that
the Iran-backed Houthi militant group in Yemen would be “annihilated” by
U.S. military strikes and warned Tehran to “immediately” stop
supplying it with military equipment and general support and “let the Houthis
fight it out themselves.” The Houthi Situation.
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Bill Gates says he thinks it’s ‘insane’
that Elon Musk is allowed to ‘destabilize’ politics in other countries. The Musk-led New
American Empire.
Instead of squandering more resources in
the counterproductive pursuit of primacy, Washington should renew its
commitment to strengthening economies and advancing human rights around the
world. The national interest does not reside in outmaneuvering China in
every domain, it resides in an internationalist vision that emphasizes
cooperation over competition. Trump and the New Age of Nationalism.
The marriage of Putin’s isolated
autocratic state with advanced nuclear capabilities and an Islamist regime
intent on ensuring its own survival is a threat that would extend far
beyond the Middle East. It may motivate like-minded states around the world
to unite behind their discontent with the United States’ global leadership
and join their ranks. Will Iran and Russia’s Growing Partnership Go
Nuclear?
During the last five years, Israelis have
endured the COVID-19 pandemic, five election cycles, an attempt to pass
very aggressive judicial reforms, and a war that began with a horrific
massacre and spread to several arenas simultaneously. According to all
indications, the coming year will not be any calmer. Israel,
Trump, and the Gaza Deal.
A reporter asked whether there was any
guidance about seatbelt use.
“Fasten your seat belts,” she suggested.
Good advice. It is going to get bumpy. The Trump White House Has No Idea What the Trump White
House Just Did.
The one thing Trump understands is power
- and if U.S. allies work together, they can confront him with plenty of
their own. If they succeed in mobilizing their resources collectively, they
may also be able to blunt some of Trump’s worst foreign policy impulses.
That may in turn create the opportunity down the road to forge a new global
order that matches Pax Americana’s record for peace and prosperity. But if
they fail, a darker era of unchecked power politics awaits - one that is
less prosperous and more dangerous for all. The Price of Trump’s
Power Politics.
The US could start by identifying the
alliances it should strengthen and the countries it should build new
relationships with within Africa, Latin America, and the Indo-Pacific
region. In Africa and Latin America, this could include countries that are
rich in the natural resources used in battery or semiconductor production,
such as Chile and Zimbabwe, or are in strategically important locations,
such as Djibouti due to its access to the Red Sea. The Case For
Reglobalization.
Pax Americana is gone. Born with the
Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, the U.S.-led
international rules-based order died with the second inauguration of Donald
J. Trump. Trump
and Power.
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Leaders in Washington better recognize
that, although corporate interests and national interests will not always
align, commercial capabilities may be essential to national security
objectives. Because of this, the government must devise a framework that
allows these interests to complement each other. The United States’
continued ability to defend its allies and partners may soon depend on how
well it can harness U.S. tech companies’ growing power. The Private Sector on the
Front Line Big Tech and the Risky Blurring of Commercial and Security
Interests.
Misinformation is rife in Syria, and
after five decades of despotic rule, Syrians have little trust in their
institutions. Assad loyalists, Iran, and ISIS have tried to spoil
reconciliation and reconstruction by staging attacks and spreading
propaganda that portrays the new government as beholden to malign foreign
interests. Other countries must not play into this perception. Instead,
no-strings-attached humanitarian aid and symbolic concessions can help
Syrians replace Assad with a better system. Syria’s Islamist Rulers Overhaul the Economy with
Firings and Privatization of State Firms.
As
a typical answer of a Belgian bureaucrat (Belgian bureaucrats in the form
of for example 'Ambassadors' still exist today), the then Archbishop
of Belgium was asked to "pls. say something" in regards to the
more than twenty-five thousand Jews that were incarcerated around the
corner from his palace, to be gassed in Auschwitz; he answered that this
was not his business. When the Nazis invaded Belgium good friends with
Adolf Hitler the Belgian King and Queen happily moved to Nazi Germany. Or,
reported to us by Koenraad Elst when in Belgium there was a
presentation about the Resistance press during World War Two,
some visitors found it bizarre or funny to read a clarification on the
cover of even an anti-Nazi Belgian paper: “Because we fight the Nazis,
some people might think that we are pro-Jewish. Far from it!" But
let's start with the beginning. Little Belgium Part One.
Leopold
I wrote to Queen Victoria: “Belgium
is purement et simplement ma creation;” ‘Belgium owes
me its sole existence;’ “The people owe me all they are.” ‘Having great
disunity,’ added, “they are without contradiction the most insufferable
creatures that exist. Little Belgium Part Two.
President Donald Trump on Friday
dramatically expanded his global trade war, confirming that he will impose
tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China on Saturday and announcing plans for
additional import taxes on European goods, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals,
steel, aluminum, copper, and oil and gas. The Trump Tariffs.
The United States’ continued ability to
defend its allies and partners may soon depend on how well it can harness
U.S. tech companies’ growing power. The Private Sector on the Front Line Big Tech
and the Risky Blurring of Commercial and Security Interests.
President Donald Trump announced
extraordinary new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, signing the
long-promised economic policy at his Mar-a-Lago club on Saturday which
could raise inflation. Businesses Lash Out at Trump’s Tariff Plan.
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Trump’s presidential term is only four
years. He is full of bluster, but his bark is often worse than his bite.
The key for intelligence officials will be to avoid distraction and find a
way to stay focused on the core missions. Trump’s Threat
to U.S. Intelligence Disruption and Demands for Loyalty Would Undermine
National Security.
South Korea’s impeached president arrived
at a Seoul court for a hearing on Saturday to oppose a formal arrest over
last month’s imposition of martial law. Yoon, who has been in detention
since he was apprehended on Wednesday in a massive law enforcement
operation at his residence, faces potential rebellion charges linked to his
declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, which set off the country’s most
serious political crisis since its democratization in the late 1980s. The South Korea Saga.
After meeting for more than six hours
Israel’s cabinet approved a deal with Hamas whereby a Gaza ceasefire won’t
begin until Hamas lists hostages to be released. Hamas has released
the names of three Israeli hostages set to be released on Sunday. Hamas's Predicament and the History of the Middle East.
People
gathered in Tel Aviv to watch footage of the release of Israeli hostages
After 254 people (including
children), were abducted by Hamas from
Israel to the Gaza Strip where they were held underground.
Today 3 Israeli women in exchange for 90 Palestinian
prisoners were let go and arrived back in Israel today. Day two
of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. To Be Followed By the Release of More Hostages.
What
Countries Outside Europe Think About Trump:
The stability of U.S. interests and
values, the role of Congress, and the realities of today’s world will
demand significant constancy. Although it is bent on reversing Biden’s
approach, the incoming team may be surprised to learn how much the two
administrations share. The Trump-Biden-Trump Foreign Policy American
Strategy’s Strange Continuity.
Companies such as Terra Power and
X-energy both need HALEU for their advanced reactors, which are expected to
be operational by 2030 provided the fuel is available. Initially, the plan was
to get the highly enriched fuel from Russia, but its war in Ukraine and the
later U.S. ban has thrown the fuel question into
uncertainty. America’s Awkward Energy Insecurity Problem With the
(sort of) end of Russian uranium imports, a challenge looms: How To Fuel the
Next Generation of Reactors?
The United Nations Human Rights Office
(OHCHR) in Ramallah said it was “alarmed” by a new wave of violence by
Israeli settlers and security forces in the occupied West Bank that erupted
following the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release agreement. How The Situation Stands
Today.
The wars’ endgames may be approaching in
Ukraine and Gaza. Plausible settlements are available that could acceptably
serve the belligerents’ core interests, at least better than continued
fighting would. What remains to be seen is whether the politicians in
charge want to grasp the nettles in peace. Can Trump Reach Real
Settlements in Ukraine and Gaza?
President Trump's “America First” rejects
the realist emphasis on the long run: it is a shortsighted,
transactionalist, and narrowly selfish approach. Trump sees every
interaction with other countries, friends and foes alike, as a zero-sum
confrontation in which the objective is to extract the largest possible
share of the perceived visible gains. Washington tried this approach
before, in the interwar years. Its myopic demands for repayment of its war
debts contributed to the financial fragility that led to the shattering
global financial crisis of 1931. Don’t Mistake Bluster and Cynicism for Toughness and
Wisdom.
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The belief that Arab-Israeli
normalization could proceed over the heads or at the expense of the
Palestinians was at best misguided and at worst dangerous, as recent events
demonstrate. It took nearly three years and the deadliest violence in the
history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for the Biden administration to
finally come to terms with this reality; the Trump administration would do
well to learn the same lesson. The Fallacy of the Abraham Accords.
If there is a new Cold War, then the West
may also be entering a new era of containment. But it is a far more complex
situation than in the old days. Rather than to two mostly rational
superpowers, the world is now hostage to three unpredictable and dangerous
leaders: Putin, Trump, and Xi. Why Russia Seeks to Change, Not End, the Conflict in
Ukraine.
Trump’s administration will come to an
end, eventually, as will his “Make America Great Again” movement.
Afterward, the American people will have to rebuild what he destroyed: a
government able to administer the country in the interests of its people. Trump and the Perils of
Ungoverning.
Syria is caught in a web of contradictory
legal restrictions. It seems to inherit all U.S.
sanctions placed on the Assad regime (first imposed with Syria’s designation
as a state sponsor of terrorism in 1979 and later intensified after the
civil war erupted in 2011). At the same time, it has been saddled with the
confusion over whether the terrorist designation of HTS applies to the
entire transitional government. While U.S. leaders herald the fall of the
Assad regime, the Biden administration quietly affirmed this month that key Assad-era restrictions remain in place. It’s Now or Never for
Engagement in Syria.
To achieve peace and stability, Syria
needs the help of current and future partners that will not bend the
country toward their own visions but instead help support Syria’s own. Don’t Let Geopolitics
Ruin Syria’s Transition.
The legacies of Afghanistan and Syria
serve as cautionary tales about the dangers of foreign interference and the
exploitation of vulnerable nations. As the dust settles on over a decade of
conflict, the enduring impact on the lives of millions will remain a stark
reminder of the human cost of geopolitical ambition. How Geopolitics
Reshaped Syria’s Trajectory.
Elon Musk’s Biographer calls him a
‘Sociopath’ after Auschwitz Photo-Op while Nazi Concentration Camp Memorial
attacks Elon Musk: 'Mad Extremist'. Elon Musk’s Salute.
Trump might be able to succeed if he can
portray himself as unpredictable and unrestrained without seeming unhinged.
But if Trump comes off as hopelessly irrational, he is unlikely to get what
he seeks. The Limits of Madman Theory.
On Saturday, Elon Musk surprised the
crowd at a rally for Germany’s far-right party, as the country’s “best
hope.” The world’s richest person is facing accusations of performing
a “Sieg Heil” Nazi salute at an inauguration event earlier this week. AFD Televised
Appearance.
South Korea’s democracy will face
serious struggles, even if Yoon’s night of martial law is just a bad
memory. But South Korea’s citizens are up to the task. If they stopped a
military dictatorship overnight, just as they deposed an earlier generation
of autocrats, they can right their ship in the years ahead. Can South Korea’s Democracy Survive?
According
to the UN, 90 percent of Syrians now live below the poverty line and 75
percent need urgent humanitarian assistance. Seven million remain
internally displaced, and more than five million have fled to Egypt, Iraq,
Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey. As a result, too many of the Syrians who
should be rebuilding their country for the better are distracted by poverty
and shut out of power. Syria’s Post-Authoritarian Trap. Why Islamist Rebels Are
Unlikely to Become Democratic Rulers.
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The impact of war on the economy almost announced
the doom of Russia’s economy. The numbers on the surface may seem stable,
but Moscow may undergo an economic collapse soon. Russia Vows Retaliation.
The foreign busybodies in the State
Department, Foreign Office, and French Foreign Ministry, who are already
pressing for the reconstruction of a unitary Syrian state, should reflect
on the country’s history. The Problem with Syria Today.
Iran will soon attempt to pick up the
pieces and reconstitute its proxies in the region. And with its
conventional deterrent destroyed, Iran may also conclude that only a
nuclear weapon can protect it from Israel and the United States. The Iran Opportunity.
China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, are
unlikely to mellow overnight. The United States’ struggle against these
countries may not last forever, but Washington must prepare for a contest
that could last years. In this competition, domestic unity will be
essential. Investing in jobs, infrastructure, housing, and education in
neglected areas, and rekindling a spirit of civic duty, will be crucial not
only to mend national fissures but also to fortify the United States
against foreign threats. The Strange Triumph of a Broken America.
As the U.S. election was unfolding, North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un tested a long-range intercontinental ballistic
missile and drew closer to Putin, internationalizing the conflict in
Ukraine by providing Russia with North Korean troops. Why it Is Not Easy to
Grasp the Significance of Events When You Are in the Middle of Them.
Elon Musk
is trying to influence the German elections, plus his
MAGA is now gaining traction abroad. Now MAGA is Also in Argentina and Japan.
Competition between the United States and
Beijing will be a defining feature of the coming decades. But although
China’s centralized governance may deliver rapid advancements in key areas,
its gains are fragile. The real peril for the United States may lie not in
the unmatchable rise of a new rival but in its unwillingness to acknowledge
and build on its unmatched potential. Know Your Rival, Know Yourself Rightsizing the
China Challenge.
A struggle is whether some of
Washington’s most important allies, struggling with their domestic
problems, can resist interference with their sovereignty by a man whose net
worth roughly equals Russia’s entire 2025 budget. Especially when that man
has Donald Trump’s ear. The Real Ambitions of Musk.
Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on
Canadian goods to coerce action from Ottawa on border issues saddled
Trudeau with fears of a profound recession ahead of an election year that
will dawn with him in deep trouble. Canada is On the Brink.
Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign
very deliberately echoed the one that Ronald Reagan ran in 1980. “Peace
through strength” and “Are you better off today than you were four years
ago. Today, the argument that Trump might pull off a similar feat will
strike many as absurd. But historical wisdom consists partly of remembering
how unlikely epochal events seemed, even just a few years before they
happened. Success in foreign policy can remake a presidential reputation
beyond recognition. To Compete with China, Trump Should Learn from
Reagan.
Amid the catastrophe, scientists'
warnings, which regularly remind us that humanity's dependence on fossil
fuels is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events, are
being felt in the flesh. The Wild Fires in California.
Emulating their Asian counterparts,
Western countries should learn to deal with Washington not as a superpower
with an almost unlimited willingness to defend them but as an offshore
balancer that will use its forces discriminatingly to advance American interests
first. What
Asia Can Teach the World About Adapting to Trump.
Not everyone in the West opposes China’s
global development program. The Ford Foundation, one of the largest private
charities in the world, has pumped roughly $10 million into supporting
China’s strategy of funding foreign infrastructure projects to accumulate
influence. A spokesperson for the charity explained that it hopes to help
make China’s impact on the world “equitable” and “sustainable.” The Belt and Road
Initiative Today.
Quantum computers will create
extraordinary opportunities for many countries worldwide. They will also
pose new risks, including potential abuse or misuse, and possible shocks to
the world order. If these dangers can be managed, the potential of quantum computing
to accelerate human progress and build a better future could be incredible.
The Race to Lead the Quantum Future.
The U.S., European, and Arab Gulf States
are engaging with the new administration to try to push the HTS in
Syria towards an inclusive political transition and also to seek
cooperation on counter-terrorism and limiting Iranian influence in the region.
But they remain wary of how the rebels-turned-rulers will manage the
country and have questions over how they will bring together disparate
groups with varying views on the direction the new Syria should take. HTS In Syria Today.
Seoul said there was no indication of
when a second arrest warrant for Yoon might be executed, but he said the
week ahead could be decisive for the political crisis as Yoon’s first
impeachment hearing is set to take place on Tuesday. The South Korea Saga.
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Netanyahu met with Trump’s incoming US
Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff in Jerusalem. Witkoff met in Doha on Friday
with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, who briefed
him on the ongoing negotiations, before he traveled to Israel to meet with
Netanyahu. Fatah Vows Not to Let Hamas ‘Replicate Its Actions’ in
West Bank, Slams Iran.
Greenland's destiny must be decided among
people whose voices have been too long overlooked. As For Trump, They
Said Greenland Is Not For Sale But He Is Free To Visit.
Trump or his successors, will find it
increasingly difficult to ignore the growing political relevance of those
countries once consigned to the margins. Trump’s bid to reassert American
hegemony will run into a world that is far less pliant than he imagines it
to be. Rise of the Nonaligned.
Trump has the opportunity to put forward
a bold economic policy to energize and protect the American economy. The
across-the-board tariffs he seems to prefer will not realize these
objectives - and could well undo recent progress, leaving the United States
in a worse position than before. Why America’s China Strategy is Incomplete.
One of the world’s greatest religious
spectacles is underway and the numbers are staggering. The Kumbh Mela.
Biden made his bid for the presidency
with pledges to mount a strong defense of human rights. Yet when he reached
the United States’ highest office and took charge of the power it holds,
Biden backed away from the fight for a more principled foreign policy and a
more humane world. How Biden Failed on Human Rights.
Today 15 January the number of
people killed in the LA wildfires has risen to 25. Meanwhile, the National
Weather Service has reinstated its highest level of warning for parts of
Los Angeles and Ventura as gusty winds are expected. Firefighters are still
battling four fires covering almost 40,000 acres. Thousands of gallons of
the retardant have been used, leaving behind eye-catching images of pink
neighborhoods.
  
Should President Trump refuse to rule out
the use of military force to achieve and protect U.S. interests, that type
of statement and determination would serve to further deter Beijing from
taking any action that would prompt the U.S. to take military action to
protect Taiwan. Trump's Greenland Bid Stirs Debate in China About
What to Do With Taiwan.
As the US faces growing rivalry to shape
the future of the global order, its intelligence agencies and military
must capitalize on the country’s innovation and leadership in AI,
focusing particularly on large language models, to provide faster and more
relevant information to policymakers. They will only gain the speed,
breadth, and depth of insight needed to navigate a more complex,
competitive, and content-rich world. Spy vs. AI How Artificial Intelligence Will Remake
Espionage.
This a subject we have been following for
some time, see here, and here. As the most dramatic
development, Yoon Suk Yeol now became South Korea’s first sitting
president to be detained, surrendering himself for questioning Wednesday
after a weeks-long standoff that resulted in a dramatic predawn raid on the
official presidential residence. The Case of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
At yesterday’s press conference, Malaya
admitted that Manila was running out of options and that China’s steady
pressure in disputed waters was “pushing us to the wall.” According to a report by
BenarNews, when asked whether
the Philippines might file a new international legal case against China, to
complement the case that it brought to an arbitral tribunal in The Hague in
2013, he refused to rule it out, saying that “all options are on the
table.”
Negotiators reached a deal for a
ceasefire in Gaza that mediators said would take effect on Jan 19 and
include a release of hostages held there during 15 months of bloodshed that
devastated the Palestinian enclave and inflamed the Middle East. The End of Horror?
The United States will need workers
capable of doing the work. The country’s embedded expertise and talent
pipelines have atrophied thanks to decades of weak demand for skills, such
as making and maintaining machine tools. The education system’s college-for-all
model is overproducing underemployed knowledge workers. The Trump
administration should shift funding away from traditional higher education
and into apprenticeships and on-the-job training, working in partnership
with community colleges and labor unions. How Trump Can Rebuild
America the Conservative Case for Reindustrialization.
The January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol
should have been a wake-up call for the United States, as its counterpart
was for Brazil. But Trump’s reelection showed that not to be the case. In
his second term, surrounded by loyalists and with sweeping presidential
immunity from prosecution, a more powerful Trump could face fewer obstacles
in attempts to subvert U.S. democracy. Thus, one can only hope for the
United States that, as Brazil has shown, democracies are not always
defenseless when confronting internal threats. From Chile to Mexico.
At a time when Israeli policies have
raised strong concerns among what he described as a relatively small part
of the Democratic Party and a strong isolationist movement is forming among
Republicans. A Hostage Deal Was Made.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered
his
own annual New Year address Tuesday and
reiterated the Communist Party’s position on Taiwan. “No one can ever stop
China’s reunification,” he said, alluding to Beijing’s longtime vow to
bring the island under its control, by force if necessary. The Next World War?
Hu Yaobang sought to remake China in
the world, he understood that the biggest challenges facing China come not
from without but from within. The Man who Almost Changed China.
The
relative quiet of the present nuclear crisis between Iran and the United
States speaks more to the raging nature of wars elsewhere than to restraint
on Tehran’s part or effective diplomacy on Washington’s. There is no
guarantee that the crisis will remain quiescent for much longer. The fact
that military force may be necessary to prevent an Iranian nuclear breakout
should be seen as a bipartisan policy failure. A Last Chance for Iran
America Should Give Diplomacy a Final Shot - While Preparing to Use Military Force.
There
will be many questions about South Asia and the world: how the region
adjusts to a second Trump administration in Washington, how it is affected
by conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine, and how it navigates
unrelenting great-power competition. But South Asia, faced with new
governments, deepening instability, fraught borders, and economic
struggles, will have its hands full closer to home. Below, we lay out Four Key Storylines to
Watch in 2025.
Journalist recalls interviewing New Orleans attack suspect.
If the parameters of any peace deal are
likely to remain obscured for months to come, Ukraine’s ex-Foreign Minister
Dmytro Kuleba says one thing is clear - Russia will not ask for
peace. The Real Risks of Escalation in Ukraine.
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Should the new Syrian authorities give
Turkey access to military bases in the country - especially those between
Damascus and the Golan Heights, a move Israel would regard as threatening
because of the area’s proximity to Israeli forces and territory - a clash
between Israel and Turkey would be a serious possibility. Why Washington Should
Create the Conditions to Withdraw U.S. Troops.
The Islamic State has long relied on
inspiring its supporters to conduct vehicle attacks, following an explicit
admonition to do so by its former No. 2, Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, who once
exhorted Islamic State supporters to conduct attacks against Westerners
with any means at their disposal. “Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter
him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a
high place, or choke him, or poison him,” Adnani urged more
than a decade ago. These brute-force tactics remain highly successful and
hard to detect in the planning stages. The Islamic State is a Franchise Now.
“We must possess Syria. If the thread
from Lebanon to here is cut, bad events will happen,” warned
former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani in 2012. Fast forward 12 years, and the Islamic Republic no
longer possesses Syria, a point made clear when images of
Tehran’s ransacked embassy in Damascus surfaced
online recently. Target Tehran.
The
shadowy Iranian global intelligence service you probably never heard
of. Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence.
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On an aside 1, an earlier recording at
the Honolulu Festival by EV:
On an aside 2, an earlier recording of
rural Majorca:
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More than 170 people have died after
a plane crashed as it was landing in South Korea on Sunday morning. The
Jeju Air plane came off the runway before colliding with a wall at Muan
International Airport in the southwest of the country.
Memorized today President Carter met the
challenges of his time, some of his own making, with strength and
foresight. In his century of life, he left a lasting legacy. It ought to
include his contributions to U.S. national security. Carter's Actions as
President.
North Korea’s relentless march toward
ever more powerful weapons of mass destruction and the United States’
unreliability in (and likely after) the Trump era. The United States itself
would never tolerate the nuclear vulnerability South Korea now experiences.
Rather than insisting that its ally remain imperiled, Washington should
drop its barriers to Seoul’s finding its way to security. The Bomb is the Best Way
to Contain the Threat from the North.
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Singapore marks 60 years of independence
Celebrations
for SG60 will kick off on New Year’s Eve, with a countdown at Marina Bay,
Sentosa, Singapore Sports Hub, and 17 heartland locations.
China-backed hackers breached US Treasury
workstations. US Treasury Hacked by China.
Warsaw is turning to major arms deals
with South Korea to establish supremacy in Continental Europe. The Road to the
Russian Border.
The US will have to drive a hard bargain
that will require a long-term commitment and a conviction that preventing
Russia from winning on Moscow’s terms will be of real value to the United
States. A positive outcome, moreover, will reverberate far beyond Europe:
amid mounting geopolitical instability, achieving lasting peace in Ukraine
will send a strong signal not only to the U.S. America Needs a Maximum
Pressure Strategy in Ukraine.
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Switzerland on 20 December 2024 published
a long-awaited parliamentary report last year's collapse of Credit Suisse,
an event that called into question the country's reputation (which now
moves to Singapore) for financial stability and prompted far-reaching
questions about what went wrong. The End of the Swiss Banking Era.
If Chinese leaders do a better job of
implementing reforms than Trump does in the next four years, China will
narrow the power gap with the United States. But if Trump does a better job
than China in this aspect - and eschews damaging foreign conflicts and
entanglements - the power gap between the two countries will get
bigger. Why China Isn’t Scared of Trump.
After QAnon, Elon Musk on Friday voiced
his support for Alternative for Germany, a far-right German political party
with ties to neo-Nazis that has been classified as “confirmed extremist” by
German domestic intelligence. The Attempted Overthrow of the German Government.
Elon
Musk initially expressed his admiration for the
AfD which led us to the research in our previous post. The
Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the first far-right party to win a state election in
Germany since the Nazi era. The party’s lead candidate in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, was convicted earlier
this year after breaking German laws against uttering Nazi slogans in
public. On Friday, December 17 there was a car-ramming
attack by an AfD admirer. Posts on the suspect's X account,
verified by Reuters, suggested he supported the Alternative for Germany
(AfD). The
Extradition Request by Saudi Government.
People put flowers for
those who died in the attack.
Syria’s long-term recovery will depend on
reintegration into the global economy through trade agreements, regional
partnerships, and diplomatic engagement. The country’s new leaders must
recognize that a failure to meet the international community’s expectations
of political reform and transparency risks prolonging the country’s
exclusion, deepening its instability, and exacerbating the humanitarian
crisis. The Path to a Better Syria.
Swiss and Italian researchers studied the
correlation between immigration and the far right's success in an unusual
place: the mostly well-off border towns and villages of Ticino,
Switzerland’s Italian-language canton. They focused on the period after 2000
when Switzerland and its EU neighbors first opened
their borders to enable
citizens to live and work freely in each other’s countries.The Far Right Reality.
It is not in the U.S. interest to cut off
aid to Ukraine completely under almost any circumstance because that could
enable a Russian takeover of the country. Given how much aid the United
States has already provided to Ukraine, there is not much room for
Washington to expand the flow of arms quantitatively, and further
qualitative increases would entail unacceptable escalation risks. A Pathway to Peace in
Ukraine.
The Tibetan Plateau has been warming more
than three times faster than the global average, with Tibet’s permafrost
thawing faster. Moreover, infrastructure activities, particularly mining in
sensitive regions that cause disturbance and pollution, directly correlate
with glacial retreat. The Climate Crisis in Tibet.
The world’s multilateral architecture is
humanity's best mechanism for confronting existential transnational
threats. Allowing it to rot, weaken, or otherwise unravel would leave all
countries far too vulnerable in an increasingly volatile world. With Nationalists Ascendant,
International Organizations Must Learn to Bend; So They Don’t Break.
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China's increasing frequency of revenge
against society attacks suggests that the party’s indifference to certain
rights and its squelching of dissent may be having an unintended effect:
the rise of violence that may appear apolitical on its face but constitutes
a desperate rejection of the political status quo. And if the party fails
to expand economic opportunities and reduce structural inequalities and
injustices, it may eventually find itself faced with greater challenges
than revenge against societal attacks. The Roots of “Revenge on Society” Attacks in China.
Omar Garcia Harfuch has spent Christmas
Eve and Christmas Day in Culiacán, Sinaloa to supervise security
operations following armed attacks and the burning of establishments that
frighten citizens. Federal forces were deployed throughout the state
to protect the population during the Christmas holidays and the upcoming
New Year. The War on Drugs in Mexico.
The loss of Syria has raised the stakes
of the war in Ukraine. In Putin’s schema, Ukraine has become a tipping
point in a global struggle between the Western elite and a new, Russian-led
order: once Ukraine falls, Russia hopes to take Georgia and whatever other
territory it desires, and to once again sell itself as a strong patron to
countries around the world. In the meantime, however, Moscow’s promises
will ring hollow. Putin Chose Ukraine over Syria.
Israeli air strikes pummelled
Sanaa's international airport and other targets in Yemen on 26 December,
with Huthi rebel media reporting six deaths.
All recognize that power will accrue to
those who hold the keys to AI development and deployment. As countries and
tech giants jockey for position, the geopolitical tempest that ensues may
overshadow the transformative potential of the technology. The Real Stakes of the AI
Race.
In an economy suffering from excess
consumption, low savings, and a declining manufacturing share of GDP,
economists should focus on the causes of these conditions and the policies
that might reverse them. Economists Have Drawn the Wrong Lessons from the
Failures of the 1930s.
South Korea's former prosecutor has
been banned from leaving the country and is facing a string of
investigations, including potential charges of leading an insurrection, a
crime punishable by life imprisonment or even the death penalty. Chaos in South Korea's
Parliament.
Aviation experts said Thursday that
Russian air defense fire was likely responsible for the Azerbaijani plane
crash the day before that
killed 38 people and left all 29 survivors injured.
The Trump White House is the danger of
turning into a snake pit when different factions within Trump’s world
compete for his attention. Many people during the first administration
feared that whoever talked to Trump last before he made a decision, that’s
what he would do. Trump Aligning with Musk on Immigration.
Spying
equipment found on seized Russian tanker that cut Finland Cable.
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Looking ahead, the question is where
Israel’s military goes from here. For Israel, the solution appears to be a
frightening one: It will continue this strategy simply because it
understands it better than others. I’m unconvinced that Israeli forces can
carry out attacks with endless repetition in warfare in this age. The Escalating
Wars in the Middle East.
Not only is the United States safer when
it is engaged, but it is also more fiscally responsible. It is expensive to
deter a war, yet it is more expensive to fight one. Washington is facing a
multitude of global threats, and so it is understandable that officials
would second-guess the cost of helping Kyiv. But given the stakes,
Americans must have clarity on the long-term costs, not just the upfront
expenses. Supporting Ukraine is not only morally right but financially
right. It
Is a Prudent Investment in U.S. Interests.
Having previously described why the
Middle East has broken down into a state of extreme combat
a Post-Assad Syria Could Unleash a New Regional Order Turkey can calm
Arab nations fearful of an Islamist takeover by inviting Syria’s neighbors
and the Gulf states to Play a Central Role in the Political Transition.
Antony Blinken to arrive for a
meeting Turkey, which backed the rebel group that led Assad’s ouster
and now stands to carry outsize influence over Syria’s political
transition, has largely agreed with Washington’s stance. But it has
expressed reservations about Israel’s recent military attacks in Syria and
concern about the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed group of
Kurdish-led militant groups. What Next With Syria.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said
existing Syrian institutions must be preserved and reformed. “Never
allow terrorism to take advantage of the transition period. And we have to
coordinate our efforts and learn from the mistakes of the past," Fidan
said according to Reuters news agency. The First Step in the Syria of Today.
The US urgently needs to reach a
bipartisan consensus on the centrality of hard power to U.S. foreign
policy. This fact must override both left-wing faith in hollow
internationalism and right-wing flirtation with isolation and decline. The Price of American
Retreat.
Although some countries may have
understandable reservations about HTS, they should still want Syria’s
transition to succeed, and they should not interfere and make it fail. The
disintegration of Syria will be worse, for Syrians and the region. How to Hold Syria Together
in the Wake of Assad’s Fall.
China’s retail sales growth in November
missed analysts’ estimates, while property investment slows
further. Imposing high tariffs and rewiring supply chains away from
China is inherently disruptive. Even though Beijing is in a far weaker
position than in the past, it can still retaliate. To manage the inevitable
costs of a de-risking strategy, Washington should opt for relatively
moderate tariffs and be prepared to quickly expand its own and its
partners’ investment in the industries that will take the place of Chinese
firms in global supply chains. China’s Slowdown Has Changed the Trade War.
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For those not members of the MAGA crowd,
it might sound ludicrous to propose that President Joe Biden extend a
blanket pardon to Donald Trump, including for his actions on Jan. 6,
2021. There’s no evidence that this effort to rewrite history will wane.
Presidential Pardons for Those Involved in the
Attack.
US officials are worried that Turkey and
its militias are set to invade northern Syria to fight US-backed Kurdish
groups, which comes amid intelligence of the Turkish army and allied armed
groups building up troops along the border.
While initially hopeful
the HTS Jihadists now are showing themselves as cruel and
oppressive. We are already seeing the wanton massacre of dissidents and
Christians on the streets. The new US administration may seek to avoid
embroiling its military and financial resources in yet another foreign
civil war. HTS Today.
Ignoring Russia or assuming that it can
be easily managed as the United States turns its attention to China would
only allow the threat to grow. It would be far better for the United States
and its allies to take the challenge from Russia seriously today than to
let another conflict become a more costly proposition tomorrow. Putin’s Point of No
Return.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said his country will retain its presence on Mount Hermon, part of a buffer
zone in Syria, “until another arrangement is found that will ensure
Israel’s security.” “I am here at the summit of Mount Hermon. … Its importance
to Israel’s security has only grown stronger in recent years, especially in
the last few weeks with the dramatic events unfolding below us in Syria,”
Netanyahu said in a video statement. The Geopolitical Competition in the Middle
East.
The US needs allies in its strategic
competition with China, not policies that push them away. But if Trump
pulls it off, he might just drive the most consequential rewrite of global
trade in decades. The result would be a United States that is both more
prosperous and more secure. How to Stop a Trade War.
Kim Ju Ae (pictured below), who is now in
her early teens - has frequently appeared at the North Korean leader’s side
at official events. It seems possible she will eventually inherit his
power, perhaps remaining at the helm for years to come. For the moment, at
least, North Korea and the Kim dynasty may be among the clearest
beneficiaries of an increasingly fractured world. The Strange Success of
North Korea.
Resistance groups in Myanmar try to take
control of Yangon, Myanmar's biggest city and his former home. To date
however the military retains the majority of major urban areas - home to
crucial infrastructure and revenue. Revisiting Myanmar.
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As is generally known by now Assad
and his family have fled to Russia, We will underneath describe how the
Syrian dictator’s stunning fall will scramble the balance of power in the
Middle East. The Day After Assad.
The Syrian Problem: More than a
decade of civil war and sanctions have left the Syrian economy in tatters.
An estimated 90% of people live below the poverty line, and more than half
the country’s population faces acute food
insecurity, according to United
Nations humanitarian officials. – Syria’s gross domestic product is
estimated to have fallen by more than 85% since the outbreak of civil war
in 2011, according to an analysis by Capital Economics. And its
already-small oil output now amounts to under 100,000 barrels per day
- “a rounding error for global oil
production,” as the consultancy put it in a note Monday. – Inflation
reached 115% in 2023, according to an
estimate by the World Bank, which also forecast that the country’s
economy would shrink by 1.5% this year. – That economic crisis presents a
huge issue for the disparate group of Syrian rebel forces as they assume
power. The most prominent of those rebel groups is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
(HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, which still faces sanctions from the
United States, Europe, and the United Nations due to its terror
designation. – There are already discussions in several countries,
including the UK, about whether HTS should be removed from the terrorist
list.
Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the
killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, was hit with a murder
charge late Monday, court records show. Suspect
denied bail as he fights extradition to New York. Mangione faces a
second-degree, not first-degree, murder charge.
 
Here
we posted an article that presents an
overview of the Luigi Mangione situation as it is.
Shock, Glee, and Unease as Syrians
Celebrate the Unthinkable A day after the regime of President Bashar
al-Assad. The
Situation As It Is Today.
An ephemeral set of understandings could
reduce the temperature in the Middle East. That would, in turn, enable
Washington and the world to turn their attention to more daunting
challenges, especially China and Russia. And any deal that stanches some of
the bloodshed and reduces some of the risks, if only temporarily. The Middle
East’s Dangerous New Normal.
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People in Damascus reported loud
explosions throughout the early hours of Tuesday, a continuation of strikes
that began over the weekend. And reported that the overnight bombing
campaign was the most violent in Damascus in 15 years. Chaos Breaks Out.
Iran’s Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali
Khamenei warned against suggestions that Iran itself would be weakened by
events in Syria and Lebanon. “Iran is powerful and will grow more
powerful,” he said, warning that “using commentaries or analyses to dishearten
the people is an offense.” Iran Putting Up a Brave Face.
Many in Ankara were quick to declare
victory after Assad fled the country. Having a friendly government in
Damascus may open doors for Turkish President Erdogan. He wants refugees to
return to Syria, and his allies in Turkey’s construction sector want to
take part in rebuilding the country. This win in Syria has afforded him
status, which Erdogan will hope to use to his advantage in relations with
the West and with countries in the region. How Turkey Won the
Syrian Civil War.
Neither Putin nor Zelensky will be easily
coaxed to the table, and Trump might resent the imperative of having to
maintain, and even expand, support for Ukraine as a means to force
negotiations. But an endless war or capitulation to Putin would be far worse.
Convince
Kyiv to Trade Land for NATO Membership.
For now, placing any kind of limits on
cooperation with India may seem at best premature and at worst
counterproductive. But given India’s foreign policy characteristics,
Washington must draw up a strategy for handling New Delhi, no matter how
much it wants to obsess about Beijing. Otherwise, the US not only risks
falling behind in Asia. It risks being sidelined altogether. India Will Carve Its Path.
If an impeachment motion is passed, it
must then be approved by the country’s Constitutional Court. The court
is supposed to deliver its verdict within 180 days of the parliamentary
vote. Impeachment Now Likely.
After the Fall of Assad, the Middle East
Braces for Unrest. Regional Stability Will Hinge on What Happens Next
in Syria.
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On Nov. 3, at least 11 shoppers were
injured in a grenade attack on a flea market in Srinagar, the summer
capital of the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. One woman later
died from her injuries. It was just the latest terrorist incident since a
new government took office in mid-October. In Jammu, the predominantly
Hindu part of the territory, terrorist attacks have killed at least 44
people this year, including 18 security personnel. The Ongoing Dilemma
of Jammu and Kashmir.
Although today’s Iran is confident that
it can fight to defend itself, it wants peace, and it is determined to
build a better future. Iran can be an able and willing partner, so long as
its partnerships are based on mutual respect and equal footing. Let us not
miss this opportunity for a new beginning. How Iran Sees the Path to
Peace.
Truong My Lan started as a market
stall vendor. In 1986, she began buying properties after the Communist
Party introduced market reforms. By the 1990s, her real estate portfolio
had expanded to include many hotels and restaurants but there was a hook to
it. The
Biggest Bank Fraud in the World.
Americans must choose between integrity
or corruption, accountability or complicity, impunity or the rule of law.
These choices are stark, and making the right ones will require real
political courage, leadership, and coalition-building. But ultimately, this
is the only way to ensure the future of the United States and a world that
is safer, more prosperous, and freer. Foreign Policy Consensus.
In the context of protests in South
Korea, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law is almost
reminiscent of the country’s dark pre-democracy period. The Situation in
South Korea Today.
Guns, Drugs, and Migration Have
Destabilized the Region—and Fed Dysfunction in Washington Curbing the
power of the region’s criminal groups and the governments with which they
have aligned is the only real path to stopping the mass exodus. If authoritarian
regimes in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela remain stubbornly entrenched, it
would also require expanding the already depleted capacity of neighboring
countries to absorb their migrants and refugees. Without these steps, the
age of pan-American disorder is likely here to stay. The Price of Neglecting
Latin America Guns, Drugs, and Migration.
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Bizarre Development of the Manhunt.
Putin and Xi know that this will be
Trump’s final term and that he could easily be followed by a president who
would reverse any deal reached under the Republican president. Both Xi and
Putin, in contrast, plan to stay in power well beyond 2029, when Trump’s
term will end. Apart from the personal relationship between the two
autocrats, their common mistrust of Washington and their hopes of becoming
more powerful in an emerging multipolar order - at the United States’
expense - are likely to provide a strong enough foundation to keep the
Sino-Russian partnership stable and growing. Can Trump Split China
and Russia?
In the groundswell of fury and defiance that erupted among South
Koreans after their president declared martial law, curtailing the
country's hard-won freedoms, it was perhaps the iconic moment. As
parliamentarians scrambled to get inside the National Assembly building to
reverse the emergency measure, a woman in a leather coat confronted one of
the soldiers who was trying to stop the lawmakers, grabbed his automatic
rifle, and tried to tug it away while yelling “Aren't you ashamed?”
Notre Dame Restauration Completed With
Dignitaries Currently in Paris.
South Korean Parliament Votes to Lift Martial
Law After Yoon’s Declaration South Korea’s Ruling Party Leader Calls for
President Yoon’s Removal Amid Martial Law Crisis. Defence Minister
Arrested.
Rebels in Damascus claim victory; the
president has stepped down and left the country. Assad Regime Falls in Syria.
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Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S.
presidential election could not have come at a better time for Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. From a low point in the aftermath of
Hamas’ October 7 attack, Netanyahu's poll numbers have rebounded. He fired
his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, who long threatened his coalition and
whose attempted dismissal last year led to massive protests. He has
installed allies as foreign and defense ministers, meaning his governing
coalition has never been more stable. Israel’s Trump Delusion.
Germany’s political uncertainty
illustrates demands for minimal state interventionism to stabilize the
economy in the long term. Thus, it remains to be seen whether the
theoretical currents of such economic liberalism in post-pandemic Germany
will translate into a classical problem of secondary deflation or create a
decentralized competitive order that paves the way for institutional
integrity toward social reunification - Germany at a Crossroads.
The city was meant to be China’s answer
to New York. But trade tensions and changing domestic priorities have taken
a toll. How Shanghai’s Ambition to Be the ‘Future of Finance’
Fell Apart.
How America’s War on Chinese Tech
Backfired. And Why Trump’s Plans Would Make Things Even Worse.
Allowing independent political activity and
releasing political prisoners will foster significant goodwill among the
Egyptian public and external partners such as the United States and Europe.
Most importantly, however, these steps would help Egypt bolster its
capacity to deal with the ongoing crisis in Gaza and with the challenges to
come. Does America Still Need Egypt?
Killer
whales were spotted swimming in downtown Vancouver:
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For most of the past year, the fighting
between Hizbollah and Israel was largely confined to exchanges of fire in a
narrow strip of land on either side of the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated
border between the two countries. But in recent months it has escalated
into a full-blown war, with Israel carrying out a ferocious bombardment of
targets across Lebanon before launching a ground invasion in October. The US-Brokered Ceasefire.
Biden’s legacy was being compared with
that of one of the greatest American presidents, Franklin D. Roosevelt.
Today, no one is making such comparisons, and many Democrats and
progressives have denounced Biden’s conduct on the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict. How Biden Can Salvage Middle East Peace and His
Legacy.
Countries across the global South should
look to their people for the way forward, and international institutions
must give those people - including members of civil society, movement
leaders, and economists - a seat at the table. The people most affected
by debt burdens must have a voice in shaping their way out of them.
Shaking off the shackles of sovereign debt. How Creditors and Debtors Can End a Global Crisis.
No U.S. administration can overhaul Venezuela’s
political system. However, by setting achievable goals that address
immediate needs, promote economic recovery, and support fundamental
freedoms, The United States Can Help the Venezuelan People.
Syrian rebels breach Aleppo, Syria’s
largest city, in startling advance. 1 million people in Syria were
left without water, and electricity due to airstrikes. Life Report.
Trump has assembled a team of China
hawks. How will Beijing respond? On the one hand, there will still be
traditional Wall Street titans and tech leaders who are seen as
Beijing-friendly and don’t want to rock the boat with China. And then
there is Elan Musk. Individuals will matter, Musk is a wild card and his
interests conflict. The China Play.
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Led by escaped convicts and formed along
family lines, the heavily armed gangs defy Gazan authorities and operate
freely along the border, a restricted Israeli military zone.
They stockpile the looted goods in
open-air headquarters - seemingly overlooked by Israeli surveillance drones
- and resell the supplies via middlemen to destitute Palestinians at
prohibitive prices.
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Some of our worst traits will enable us to
exhibit some of our best: the human instinct toward self-interest, even at
the expense of others, may prepare us for accepting AI’s transcendence of
the self. War and Peace in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.
Years after one of the worst spills in history,
companies in search of discoveries are drilling even deeper into the
seabed the industry is haunted by the explosion on the Deepwater
Horizon drilling rig in BP’s Macondo prospect. Over 87 days, 134mn gallons
of oil poured into the northern Gulf, killing up to 800,000 seabirds and
almost wiping out the Rice’s whale Now the GranMorgu project development
will involve the development of the Sapakara South and Krabdagu oil
discoveries, off the coast of Suriname. The Making of a New Oil Spill.
Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s
administration reported to rethink its uncritical support of Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, clarifying and restricting how
and when that government can use American weapons and munitions. And it
must diplomatically reassure the region’s other actors that the United
States will be a moderating influence rather than an aggravating one.
Without these changes, the potential for escalation in the Middle East will
only grow. Israel’s Latest Wars are Changing Tehran’s
Strategic Calculations.
Prodded by Beijing China’s
ambassador to the US has been rushing to connect with potential Trump
administration officials after several years of struggling to get meetings
with Republicans in Washington. China Rushes to Connect with Potential Trump Officials.
European colonialism, therefore, played a
critical role in shaping the modern Middle East and the conditions that led
to the founding of Israel. The legacy of colonialism, with its arbitrary
borders, foreign intervention, and the imposition of external political
models, has left a lasting imprint on the region, contributing to the
ongoing conflicts and struggles for national identity and sovereignty. Israel and its
Current Problems Part One.
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The new US administration will surely
face significant new challenges to U.S. nuclear deterrence. The United
States and its allies simply do not have the luxury of waiting another
three years for these challenges to be met. Deterring Nuclear
Dictators like China, Russia, and North Korea.
The British Mandate in Palestine was
marked by the tension between the commitments made to the Jewish people in
the Balfour Declaration and the rights of the Arab population. The terms of
the mandate, as established by the League of Nations, created a framework
that was both ambitious and fraught with contradictions. The British
Mandate in Palestine and Zionism.
Washington must work with Doha, Paris,
Riyadh, and other partners to scale up financial, military, and
institutional support to the Lebanese army to allow it to move to the south
and take control of Lebanon’s borders. Lebanon’s Day After.
Last April, it appeared as though
escalation between Israel and Iran could plunge the entire Middle East into
conflict. Israel’s strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus prompted
Iran to retaliate by launching a barrage of missiles and rockets into Israel,
the first time that Iran had openly attacked the country. Israel and its Current
Problems Part Two.
The US (in defense of Taiwan the only
country possibly going at war with China) better exploit its asymmetric
strengths and focus on revitalizing its credibility among its allies,
exacerbating Beijing’s distinct vulnerabilities, and ultimately tipping the
cost-benefit balance for China’s nuclear-backed coercion campaign. Once it
appreciates the subtle role that China’s nuclear buildup plays in advancing
Beijing’s geopolitical agenda, the United States can shift its policies to
maintain the status quo. The True Aims of China’s Nuclear Buildup.
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In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a
stretch of their long-disputed shared border. The deal brought an end, for
the time being, to a four-year standoff in the high mountains of the
Himalayas that had severely strained ties between the two countries. It
also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi
Jinping to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years.
In 2020, a bloody confrontation in the Galwan
Valley left dozens of soldiers dead and led to a deep freeze in
bilateral relations between the two Asian giants. Himalayas Deal.
Beijing has already Prepared for Trump’s Return: China Is Readying for Known Challenges and Unknown
Risks.
Chinese authorities attempt to keep a lid on
the Zhuhai incident where 35 people died. The BBC reported that security guards began
photographing the journalists and making calls after learning its news team
was present. A video shows a man in civilian clothes interrupting the
newscast, angrily demanding to see a press card, grabbing the BBC correspondent,
and trying to block the camera lens.
Whatever happens after January 20, 2025, it will be critical for
Ukraine to get further funds and weapons in the remaining weeks of this
year. If Trump does try to talk to Putin, Ukraine will need to be in the
strongest position possible on the battlefield. Ukrainians know that it
won’t be easy to ensure Washington’s continued support. Tell Trump that a
Russian Victory Could Hurt Him.
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The defense pact signed by Russian
President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un obligates both
countries to provide immediate military support to one another if either is
attacked. The document additionally urges both nations to engage actively
in the pursuit of a “just and multipolar new world order” and to ramp up
collaboration across several domains, encompassing peaceful nuclear energy,
space exploration, food security, as well as trade and economic aspects.
Keir Giles has penned a book on Russia titled ‘Who Will Defend Europe?: An
Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent.’
Chinese leaders were surprised to learn
that the Roman Empire was still intact and functioning as a unified state
at a time when China had split into three rival kingdoms. The prospect of
establishing political and commercial contacts with Rome was, therefore,
attractive. When the Romans Went to China.
Trump’s imminent return to the White
House is making Europe nervous, and we can already see the effects. For
one, Brussels is changing its spending policies to redirect tens of
billions of euros to defense and security. Why America’s Mission Was to Spread Freedom or the End of its 'Ancien Régime'.
Even when the facts don't support the
claims, enemies of Israel will use classic inversion and denial to turn the
narrative - baselessly accusing Israel of genocide and using human shields.
The very things Hamas and its counterparts do - they use civilians to
shield operatives to keep Israel from striking and their very reason to
exist is that they want to wage genocide against the Jews. Israel Mostly Stands
Alone.
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The profound effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab
World during the First World War can be seen echoing through the history of
the 20th century. Several instances like the debates surrounding the
Sykes-Picot agreement have shaped the Middle East. But none was as
important as the machinations of Sharif Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931. The Making of the Middle East.
After Trump's win, Putin said that a struggle for a new world order
was underway. Putin said, ‘Former structure of the world is irrevocably
disappearing ... a serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding’ to form a
new one. An Opening for Russia to Shatter
Western Unity.
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- The Saudi
Arabian desert turned into a winter landscape for the first time in its
history:
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- A new
Kristallnacht in Europe: Pogrom in Amsterdam against Israeli football fans
that led to 62 arrests and seven Israelis missing. What Happened?
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- Coordination
between Washington and Taipei would complicate Chinese plans for a blockade
or invasion and may prompt Beijing to reexamine whether the costs of
continuing on its current path outweigh the benefits. Even if China does
not abandon its gray-zone playbook, such steps would, at the very least,
better prepare Taiwan for a conflict that such coercion has made all the
more likely. China’s Gray-Zone
Offensives Against Taiwan.
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- Allies that
feel exposed may make choices that damage their own security and that of
the United States. Deploying U.S. troops for domestic law enforcement,
border patrol, or deportations may fracture the bond between the American
public and the military, as well as sow discord within the military itself.
The National Security Imperative for a
Trump Presidency.
Ë
- Beijing is
launching a stimulus largely to repair confidence. And if the U.S. is
declaring a second trade war, it might undo those stabilization measures on
the confidence side, certainly with foreign investors and possibly with
Chinese households. So that would be a rather Big Problem for Beijing.
Ë
- Were Hamas to
be forced to leave Doha, it is unclear where they would base their
political office. Key ally Iran would be an option, although the
assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July suggests
they may be at risk from Israel if based there. What Next after Qatar Suspends Mediator Role.
Ë
- Israel’s
attacks on Hezbollah are unlikely to destroy it. Israel has been using the
tactic against the group for decades. Rather than collapsing, Hezbollah has
proved both resilient and adaptive. Attempts at leadership decapitation
have produced more violence, organizational expansion, and increased
Iranian influence. The Sordid History
of a Flawed Tactic.
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- How to Account for the Antisemitism in the Era of
'Gaza' and its Historical Context:
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- U.S. efforts to
drive a wedge between China and North Korea could backfire, potentially
strengthening their autocratic alliance. To secure meaningful cooperation
from China, it would be more effective for Washington to keep its requests
specific, realistic, and geared toward achieving shared interests. A more
focused approach is likely to yield better results. How
to Make Beijing a Partner in Restraining Pyongyang.
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- North Korean
Defectors Boost Ukraine's Fight Against Kim Jong Un's Troop.
Ë
- International actors need to find a political settlement
that begins with a cease-fire to the bloody wars in Gaza and Lebanon. The
next step should be to bring in the governments linked to the axis to
negotiate a broader settlement that takes into account the true nature of
the power dynamics in the region. Without such an inclusive approach,
regional conflict in the Middle East is destined to persist, to the
detriment of future generations. Israel is
Underestimating Iran and its Allies.
Ë
- During his
campaign, Trump promised to bomb Mexico and to deport legal
immigrants, called opposition politicians the “enemies from within,” and
claimed that migrants were “poisoning the blood” of the country. Despite
all this - or perhaps because of it - Trump won a popular majority. When
the rest of the world looks at Trump, they will no longer see an aberrant
exception to American exceptionalism; they will see what America stands for
in the twenty-first century. Trump’s Reelection
Will Redefine U.S. Power.
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- Iran fired two of the largest barrages
of ballistic missiles ever at Israel this year. Even the world’s best
defenses don’t always stop them.
- A deadly axis of hostile anti-American
and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined
to challenge U.S. global primacy. Russia, China, and North Korea are
nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated
geopolitical flashpoints in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific could
converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances, and firm deterrence will
be needed to meet this growing threat. North
Korean Troops Mark a New Escalation.
- Archaeologists exploring the interior
of the Karazhartas Pyramid have made several intriguing discoveries. At the
heart of the mausoleum lies a sarcophagus structure, surrounded by granite
stones. Inside the sarcophagus, researchers unearthed the skull of a
local ruler, providing a fascinating glimpse into the identity of the
individual interred within.
This
grand structure measures approximately 65 feet by 98 feet and rises to a
height of about 5 feet at its apex.
- China-based hackers penetrated the
networks of U.S. telecom providers and might have penetrated the system. The
Worldwide Reach of Chinese Spies.
- On an Island that is not dissimilar to
Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, China (in Hainan) has built an ability to project
power with multiple types of capabilities; air, missile, militia, ships,
and submarines. The Need to Forestall a Chinese Attack?
- China seeks to radically reshape the
international order in the long term while maintaining it in the short
term. However, by stoking tensions with the West, Xi is weakening China’s
economy and complicating its geopolitical ambitions. Moldova’s pro-Western president wins
vote overshadowed by Russian meddling claims.
-
Over the decades, Israel has tried, whether through military or political
action, to shape Lebanon according to its interests. It’s repeatedly
failed, with its actions sometimes helping to create new foes, as was the
case with Hezbollah. Today, Israel’s willingness to try to influence
internally. Lebanese politics seems to be no different: Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to destroy the country unless it
pushes Hezbollah. To Know the Context.
- Russia is preparing strikes on nuclear
infrastructure facilities in the territory of Ukraine. Two devices that
ignited in Europe, officials say, were part of a covert operation to put
them on cargo or passenger aircraft. As the Ukrainian News Agency earlier
reported, the aggressor country Russia uses Chinese satellites to
photograph Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which may indicate preparations
for strikes on them. How the War in Ukraine Could Go Nuclear.
- A suspected
Russian arson attack on a DHL warehouse in Birmingham was a test run for future
attacks on the US, Polish officials have said, after arresting some of the alleged
criminals involved.
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- More
than 200 people have lost their lives after the flooding swept through
streets, turning walkways into rivers and trapping people in their homes
and on the roofs of cars.
 
- American political leaders: Undermining
the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy
may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s
undermining the winner's legitimacy pays political dividends. American
democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s Era of Violent
Populism.
- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the next Secretary General of
NATO, warned Pyongyang’s involvement in the Ukraine war could mark the
start of a “far
darker” phase of the conflict.
- With growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, there
are concerns over the broader impact of this alignment on East Asian
security dynamics. U.S. officials echoed Zelenskyy's concerns, noting the
gravity of North Korea's involvement and its potential to undermine
stability in multiple regions. First-Ever
Ukraine Clash with North Korean Troops Sparks Fears of Escalating Global
Conflict.
- Ideas do not belong to specific places. They 'belong' wherever
they happen to take root. Culturalist ideas developed in the human sciences
have a resonance well beyond Europe or North America. Indeed they provide
many of the intellectual resources for the construction of the Asia/West
dichotomy on which the cultural politics of in this case Confucian/Asian
democracy rests. There is also a case regarding the cluster of concepts
that underpin 'Asian values' and 'Asian identity' as assembled very largely
on the edifice of ' Asia ' studied by Western scholars. Singapore and Asia.
- Trump has won the chance to determine U.S. national security
policy and will wield the impressive power embodied in the men and women
now waiting to work for him. The Trump team has more than enough
confidence. The world will soon learn whether it also has enough wisdom. What a New Term Means.
- Were Russia to falter in the war and start seeking an exit,
countries outside Europe could be vital to the ensuing diplomacy. If
negotiations yielded arrangements suitable to Ukraine, to Europe, and to
the United States, then it would not particularly matter which country
hosted the talks or which plan was their catalyst. As for the military help
that China, Iran, and North Korea are lending, there may be ways to limit
it on the margins or to raise the costs of providing it. How Ukraine Became a
World War.
- Thousands were ordered to evacuate as a wildfire burns homes in
the richest State in the US (it's not just the floods
in Spain anymore) California. Based on available scientific evidence
there is a probably worldwide, weather pattern change that is ongoing.
However, climate change may also be a result of policy implementation and
the incompatibility of capitalism with our finite resources, a narrative
failure is also inhibiting our ability to imagine alternative futures.
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In the cases of Malaysia, Java, Sumatra,
and Borneo Imperial Japan argued that despite the vast lands and rich
resources, the Japanese were not granting them any level or kind of
independence, not even a false one, which they had granted to Burma or the Philippines.
They also pointed out that the Japanese always openly addressed those
regions as Japanese territories and colonies. The Greater East
Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere Part One of Two.
Japan was not an easy opponent to deal
with. The discussion committee for the establishment of the Greater East
Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere decided that considering the various situations
the overseas Chinese population was representing, it would be wise not to
employ a single policy for various situations, and it would be especially
important to employ active control and utilization in dealing with the
economically powerful individuals or groups within the overseas Chinese
society, instead of just letting them do their businesses. The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere Part Two of Two.
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China built a $50 billion military
stronghold in the South China Sea.
A campaign of chaos conducted under the
cover of an anti-Hezbollah offensive will only have limited political
benefit to Netanyahu and his government. Israel Brings Its Gaza Strategy
to Lebanon.
Hopefully, Xi will change course.
He would bear much of the blame for preventing the Communist Party
from fulfilling its pledges to make China a “moderately developed economy”
by 2035 and a “strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist
country” by 2049. Xi Jinping’s Axis of Losers.
We have learned to never underestimate
the strategic advantage of a just cause. And we learned that free people
will always refuse to replace an open order of rules and rights with one
dictated by force and fear. What’s at
Stake in Kyiv’s Fight for Freedom.
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What Washington is doing with its
military in the Indo-Pacific, creates several potential pathways to
preclude Chinese efforts to overturn the status quo, increases the
complexity of those contingencies, and induces uncertainty about which may
be the most relevant. It will indeed be difficult to know whether any
particular U.S. partner will prove willing to use or allow the use of
military assets from its territory in a conflict. But that uncertainty is a
feature, not a bug. Simply put, although the United States may not have
full clarity about what role specific allies and partners will play should
a conflict erupt, neither does China. The Return
of Total War.
In today's uncertain moments, the
secretary-general of the United Nations can explore and create
opportunities for conflict resolution. After all the UN has the authority
and credibility to play this role. And over the coming years,
it may make all the difference between global war and peace. Can the United Nations Be Saved?
$1 Billion US Weapons System Lands in
Israel Amid Preparation to Attack Iran.
The best outcome for the Middle East, and
the world is two sustainable, representative, forward-looking visions. The
worst outcome is two backward-looking regimes clinging to past grievances.
The former may be difficult to achieve. But the consequences of the latter
would be nothing short of catastrophic. The New Battle for the Middle
East Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions.
The
FBI announced it was investigating the leak of classified US intelligence
documents about Israel's plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The claim
that American-Iranian Tabatabai Leaked Israel's Iran Attack Plans has been
disproven.
Seen
underneath Rocket attacks on Tel Aviv
As Reported By The New York Times IDF names 6 Al Jazeera journalists as members of Hamas, Islamic
Jihad after uncovering documents. Next on October 24, the IDF published further
documents captured in Gaza that it said indicated close cooperation
between Hamas and Al Jazeera, including papers in which the terror group
advised the Qatari network not to criticize it, and in which the sides
coordinated on concealing incidents of failed rocket launches.
During the most harrowing nuclear crisis
in history, Kennedy assembled the ExComm to try to mitigate the danger
McNamara would later cite. Although the world looks much different now than
it did during the Cold War, with new rivals and alliances and a more
complex set of imperatives guiding geopolitics, it is no less dangerous.
Requiring that presidents consult with others before making the most
fateful decision in human history would make the United States and the
world a safer place. Presidents Shouldn’t
Make the Biggest Decision by Themselves.
The reality is that anything the United
States does to impose costs on China will upset Beijing. The only way to
avoid that is to give it what it wants, which is territorial control over
Taiwan, maritime control of the South China Sea, and economic, military,
and political dominance in Asia. Washington cannot be afraid to make China
pay for helping bad actors, especially when holding back lets Beijing
pretend to be above the fray. The
Military Logic of Beijing’s Growing Partnerships.
When President Xi Jinping attended the
opening banquet of the Second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. As
well as offering fine words about regional cooperation, Xi wanted to talk
about history. ‘For millennia, the Silk Road had witnessed how countries
achieved development and prosperity through commerce and enriched their
cultures through exchanges,’ he told the delegations. Developing Modern China.
Today what previously was an important friction point on the roof
of the world, has been greatly diminished. The disengagement of troops
of India and China has started in Demchok and Depsang Plains in the Eastern
Ladakh sector.
Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Burmese
Mandalay People's Defense Forces, said China’s influence was a
“reality," but that groups like his farther from the border could lead
in the fight for Mandalay. Myanmar and Southeast Asia.
Israel
launched airstrikes early Saturday on military targets in Iran in
retaliation for a ballistic missile assault Oct. 1, officials said. There
was no immediate information on damage in the Islamic Republic. Israel’s
military described the attack as “precise strikes on military targets in
Iran,” without immediately elaborating.
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The feared Israel-Hezbollah war is
happening, but it is remarkably one-sided so far. In September, Israel
detonated thousands of Hezbollah
pagers and
walkie-talkies. It then commenced large-scale bombing of over 1,000 targets
in Lebanon and stepped up its military campaign against Hezbollah leaders,
culminating in the killing of Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli forces have
also crossed into Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure, and
pushing its fighters away from the border.
Hezbollah has fought back. The militant
group has launched drone
attacks into Israel,
including one on an Israeli military base that killed four people and
another on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday
home in Caesarea.
A subject we widely covered more
than a decade ago
suddenly (not long before a US election) gets the attention of the
President of the USA who spoke out about it. In his address, Biden
apologizes for past
U.S. policy on boarding schools for Indigenous children. Thousands
of children are estimated to have died. Many of the deceased are still
to be identified. Many were
physically, emotionally, and sexually abused, and not mentioned by
President Biden, more than 950 died. See our previous parts; One, Two, Three, Four, Five.
The Jewish state's massive military
attack against key Iranian bases could ultimately be the final nail in the
Islamic Republic's coffin.
Biden 'knew and encouraged' Israel to
bomb Iran to 'deter further attacks'. Tel Aviv Issues a Chilling Ultimatum.
Israel heeded President Joe Biden’s counsel
not to destroy the Iranian regime’s core strategic assets, lest Tehran
lashes back with an attack on Saudi oil interests or U.S. troops. That
could trigger a general war in the region at the height of a close and
globally fateful U.S. election campaign. Biden reinforced those pleas with
concrete shows of U.S. backing, such as the deployment of a defensive
missile battery to Israel, and U.S. troops to operate it, and a B-2 strike
on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel’s
Attack on Iran.
A concerted strategy of international
engagement to support free elections could blunt the march of illiberal
populism, strengthen civil societies, help restore democratic vitality in
pivotal countries, and yield the largest harvest of democratic transitions
since the global democratic recession began. Once democracy regains its
momentum, even entrenched dictatorships will be under pressure. The
alternative is a continued authoritarian drift toward a world of increasing
polarization, repression, conflict, and violence. How to End the Democratic Recession.
The Gulf states will not cut off ties
with China except in narrowly scoped areas, and even then such decisions
will always be open to renegotiation. Without serious efforts at mitigation
in the form of sustained investments in both physical and cybersecurity,
building massive data centers in non-allied countries increases the risks
of intellectual property theft and misuse, especially if those centers host
the weights of frontier models (the parameters that encode the core
intelligence of an AI system). The
Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy.
Why do Drone swarms hold enormous
potential? Given the interest that major military powers are expressing
toward this emerging technology, drone swarms are likely to eventually
become a prominent feature of 21st-century warfare. Geopolitical Implications How Warfare Evolved.
The Philippine government estimates that
more than 6,252 people have been gunned down by the police and
"unknown assailants" in Duterte's "war on drugs".
Rights groups say the numbers could run into the tens of thousands. The
problem is, that evidence shows that many of them died without having
anything to do with drugs. Former Philippine president Duterte has
admitted that he kept a death squad. The squad was made of gangsters,
adding that he would tell them "Kill this person, because if you do
not, I will kill you now".
China, Iran, and Russia have declared war
on American democracy. They’re doing a good job of mounting their attacks
while Washington has not done enough to defend the country’s information
space. Without a credible deterrence policy, these enemies will keep
seeking to undermine the United States. How Russia, China, and Iran Seek
to Spread Disinformation and Chaos in the United States.
U.S.
diplomatic efforts are critical to stemming the escalating violence in
Lebanon and reducing the risk of armed conflict between the United States
and Iran. To get what it wants - and what the region needs - Washington
should think smaller, crafting an agreement that makes up for what it lacks
in ambition with elements tailored to quell each side’s most pressing
anxieties. Israel has the upper hand right now and will want to press its
advantage in pursuit of “total victory.”
Hezbollah has a weak hand, but to avoid
the appearance of defeat, it will hold out for a cease-fire that results in
Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and an end to airstrikes. The
Least Bad Option for Lebanon.
It is a dangerous blunder to gullibly
accept their show of bowing to the ostensible will of the people. And when
popular grievances are used as a pretext for bad policy - or, even worse,
as a pretext for democratic backsliding - it is politicians, not the
citizenry, who are culpable. The Populist
Phantom.
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Surrounded by Italy on all
sides, the Republic of San Marino, - the third smallest in Europe
- has stubbornly clung to its independence over the centuries, even as
revolutions and world wars swirled around it. And no, we’re not talking
about Vatican City, but another microstate within Italy - San Marino, the
world’s fifth smallest country, also considered the oldest country in
Europe.
Humanity bestrides the planet, explores the cosmos, and continues to
reshape itself because humans are the world’s most inventive, adaptable
animal. But it will take more than a bit of inventiveness and adaptability
to cope with the unintended future consequences of the family and fertility
choices being made today. Surviving a World Gone Gray.
Turkey and Syria also have
overlapping interests in limiting the growth of Syrian Kurdish separatists.
Syrian President Bashar Assad wants to regain control of the territory he
lost in the northeast, and Ankara wants to weaken Kurdish separatism in
Syria because it poses a threat to Turkey. Ankara has its work cut out for
it, and Tehran will not give up without a fight. Iran’s Losses Could Be
Turkey’s Gains.
After more than two and a half years of fighting, most polling shows
Russians generally displaying support, or at least acquiescence, to the
war, though some dents appear to be showing. In the highly censored online
environment, there are few complaints about the extraordinary rates of
Russian losses, let alone expressions of sympathy for Ukrainians. Yet
people do worry openly when the war affects their self-interests. Putin’s Greatest Weakness.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders
Friday that the U.S. is concerned about China's “increasingly dangerous and
unlawful” activities in the disputed South China Sea during an annual
summit meeting, and pledged the U.S. will continue to uphold freedom of
navigation in the vital sea trade route. To the
Members of ASEAN Belong Among Others also China and India the Two Most
Populous Countries in the World.
Ultimately, Iran’s capabilities are less important to the outcome of
the conflict than the U.S.-Israeli relationship. The past year may have
tested their ties, but it has yet to fully break them. This means that
Washington will likely accept any Israeli response, which we believe will
yield some restraint, however small it may be. Israel’s ideal scenario is
the elimination of Iran. But an acceptable, second-best goal is to make
certain the anti-Israel factions are gone. Israel can't change the reality
of Iran’s existence, but perhaps it thinks it can change the way it
interacts with Hamas and Hezbollah. Gaming
out Israeli and Iranian Retaliation.
A recent wave of suspected
Iranian-ordered attacks include a hand grenade thrown at the Israeli
Embassy in Stockholm and a Spanish politician shot in the face in broad
daylight.
As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has learned
from more than 20 years of experience that US pressure is something he can
withstand, if not ignore. Netanyahu knows that the US, particularly in an
election year, will not take action that forces him to divert from his
chosen course (and believes, in any event, that he is fighting America’s
enemies too). Yet Biden Called Netanyahu ‘a Bad F-Ing Guy’.
For Iran’s leaders, the sudden exposure of its vulnerabilities may
fuel an increased appetite for risk - risks that they may hope will
compensate for mounting failures and prevent future ones. Yet a change to
its nuclear doctrine is unlikely to resolve the Islamic Republic’s
strategic dilemmas. A move toward a nuclear weapon would likely bring
conflict in the short term. Iran’s Year
of Living Dangerously.
In the context of a
possible attack on Iran by Israel, the US deploys the THAAD anti-ballistic
missile system to Israel with US troops that will go to Israel to operate
it.
The Israeli army took reporters to what they said was a Hezbollah
tunnel shaft some 219 yards (200 meters) from a UN post in southern Lebanon
on Sunday (October 13).
History is replete with the remains of empires that were imprisoned
by habit. From the Romans to the Habsburgs, fighting continual wars on
multiple fronts against multiple foes led to mounting debts and eventually
to irreversible decline. U.S. foreign policy today risks meeting the same
fate. How the Next President Can Make
Change in a System Built to Resist it?
China is holding military exercises around Taiwan, in what it calls
a "stern warning" against those seeking "independence" for
the self-ruled island. Taiwan's
Ally, the US, Says it is Monitoring the Drills.
Many in the West may be
reluctant to face the truth: that the past year has only made nuclear
weapons a more attractive tool for the Iranian regime’s own survival. Iran’s Nuclear Tipping
Point.
Armed and masked Palestinians seen on
trucks loaded with international humanitarian aid, blocking the
aid entering Gaza through the Israeli Kerem Shalom Crossing in the
southern Gaza Strip.
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China launched a large-scale, one-day military drill Monday that
simulated a blockade of Taiwan. The exercise, code-named “Joint Sword –
2024B,” involved the People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLA Air Force, PLA
Rocket Force and China Coast Guard. The drill was a response to Taiwan
President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech, in which he asserted Taiwan’s
independence from China. The Election of
William Lai.
After Israel’s success in eliminating Hezbollah’s military and
political leadership, Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, informed Lebanese
Prime Minister Najib Mikati of the party’s readiness to withdraw to north
of the Litani River. He also authorized the head of the Amal Movement,
Nabih Berri, who has been parliamentary speaker since 1992, to negotiate
arrangements on behalf of Hezbollah to stop the war, paving the way for
placing the party under the mantle of the Amal Movement, which would be a
major shift in the balance of power among the Shiites of Lebanon. The Group Falsely Believed Its Domination of Lebanese
Politics was Permanent.
At the moment, the escalation of the war in Lebanon, as well as
Israel’s resolve to retaliate against Iranian strikes, is obscuring the
divisions regarding the West Bank. But those differences form a critical
fault line. Israel’s Hidden War.
Many young Russians will learn to do two things simultaneously:
adapt to the rules of the system but still think another way. Eventually,
the external political environment will change, and when that happens, this
widespread double consciousness could allow them to reject the stifling
system they have known. Putin’s Children.
The likely prospect is that even a wider conflict would remain
constrained by the limitations of distance, diplomacy, and strategy that
have shaped the war that is already underway. Iran and Israel Face Limitations that Make Massive
Escalation Unlikely.
Decades of ambiguity and compromise have left neither Taiwan China
nor the United States fully satisfied. But almost by definition, any
outcome that fully satisfied one party would be unacceptable to another, so
Washington’s goal should be to find a status quo that all sides can live
with. It’s a fine balancing act, but that is what diplomacy is all
about. How to Avert Catastrophe at the
World’s Most Dangerous Flash Point.
Israeli military forces discovered state-of-the-art Russian
weaponry during searches of Hezbollah militants' bases in southern Lebanon.
Rather than worrying about the emergence of a new Cold War,
Washington should work to build a new global diplomatic-security concert,
toward which a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty can be an important step. The Real Purpose of a U.S.-Saudi Security Agreement.
Earlier
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a video statement marking
a year since Hamas’s October 7,
2023, terror onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred
souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of
all hostages.
Hamas military
commander Yahya Sinwar the architect of the worst
atrocity conducted against Jews since
the Holocaust, has been
killed by Israel.
The dynamics created by Yahya
Sinwar’s killing can be leveraged toward a ceasefire, this could have
implications for ending the war in Lebanon. Such a shift would deprive Iran
of two of its most valuable regional assets and, in doing so, diminish its
pernicious influence in the region. The
Control of Gaza, Hostage Release, and Ceasefire Talks.
European businesses’ inclination toward SEZs,
which rely on the largesse of their respective governments, reflects a
growing caution about escalating geopolitical risks. When businesses are
squeamish, it usually indicates a belief that global tensions will continue
to rise, not fall. Past Changes, Future Problems.
For decades, Russian exports centered on
raw materials, primarily oil and gas, with the European Union as the key
buyer. Oil revenues directly funded Moscow's budget, making the halting of
exports a potential pressure point on the Kremlin. The Rise of Russia's Shadow
Fleet.
The Silk Road may have formally opened up
trade between the Far East and Europe during the Han Dynasty, which ruled
China from 206 B.C. to A.D. 220 Han Emperor Wu sent imperial envoy Zhang
Qian to make contact with cultures in Central Asia in 138 B.C., and his
reports from his journeys conveyed valuable information about the people
and lands that lay to the West. But transporting goods and services along
these routes dates back even further. How East and West Met.
The security of Europe now depends on
significant multilateral cooperation to ensure that any path toward ending
the war achieves the best possible result for Ukraine. But as attention
shifts to negotiations, U.S. and European military support must not wane,
for although a successful outcome can be achieved only through diplomacy,
what is diplomatically possible will always depend on the military
realities on the ground. Ukraine Must Turn the Tide Before It Can Negotiate.
Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant
secretary of defense for the Middle East, warned that "the future
coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged" if the
leak is confirmed. He emphasized that trust is crucial to the relationship.
The Pentagon has stated it is looking into the leak reports. Documents Suggesting
Britain Was Involved in Israel's 'Deadly Plot' to Strike Iran.
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Israeli Beirut strikes today targeted Hashem Safieddine, a potential
successor to late Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s aerial
campaign in Lebanon is being conducted at an intensity comparable only to
the first weeks of its bombardment in Gaza last year. Is Nasrallah's Successor Hashem Safieddine
Eliminated In Israeli Strikes?
China’s defense-based relationship with Russia looks likely to
continue, and as it does, it risks conflict even with its regional allies.
Earlier this week, Vietnam criticized an attack by Chinese law enforcement
forces on Vietnamese fishermen near a disputed island, while Malaysia has
increased drilling operations in a disputed area. The South China Sea
Dispute.
Iran's Khamenei gives a rare public sermon as Israel weighs
counterstrike on Iran, he occasionally grasped the barrel of a rifle that
stood to his left.
Rather than looking at the deeper meaning of October 7 - and
realizing the unsustainability of the antebellum status quo, acknowledging
the self-delusion involved in the effort to “manage” the Palestinian issue
while riding the wave of economic growth, and appreciating the perilousness
of pretending the Palestinians don’t exist, Israelis are being led to
accept deeper institutionalized apartheid in the West Bank, permanent
occupation in Gaza and perhaps south Lebanon, and growing autocracy and
theocracy at home. Sadly, after a year of war, the long-term threats to
Israel’s democracy and liberal values have only become graver. Israel’s Paradox Of Defeat.
As Israel bombs Hezbollah intelligence HQ in Beirut, Iran’s supreme
leader Khamenei warns of confrontation.
On Saturday Hamas claimed responsibility for the shooting attack in
Israel which killed 7, and injured 16. The attack in Tel Aviv took place
just ahead of ballistic missile bombardment by Iran which shook the country
as more than 200 missiles were Fired
By Tehran Toward Israel.
Top US general in the Mideast arrives in Israel, as
IDF preps response to Iranian attack Army strikes Hezbollah sites in
Beirut. This while rallies in Israel urge the release of Israeli hostages
are held nationwide, nearly a year after Oct. 7.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a
video statement marking a year since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror
onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred
souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of
all hostages.
The
Year 2024 Was A Record-Breaking One, But Not In A Good Way.
The successor to the eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem
Safieddine, in turn was also killed during a recent Israeli attack on
Beirut (Lebanon).
Qatari officials
told the families of the Israeli hostages that Yahya Sinwar
the leader of Hamas, had surrounded himself with hostages, in the headquarters of his tunnel system. From the outset,
“the Gaza war” was a misnomer. Ever since Hamas’s heinous October 7 attack
one year ago, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists, in what
has already become one of the longest wars since Israel’s founding.
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A new assessment by the Department of Homeland
Security warns of possible threats from violent extremists driven by
the heated political environment in the US as well as foreign and domestic
threats from terrorist groups and others inspired by conflicts abroad.
The Why And How As Described In The
Report.
Russia is already
engaged in a major conflict, but the northward shift of the Israeli-Arab
war may lead Moscow to take steps it hadn’t anticipated. It’s unlikely,
certainly, but the U.S.-Soviet alliance in World War II was also unlikely. Code Red Time In
The Middle East.
On Monday 7 October Israel established a new
closed military zone along its border with Lebanon.
On 9 October Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will
meet with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the
Pentagon on Wednesday as the U.S. ally mulls how to respond to last week’s
Iranian attack.
Washington Worries The Israelis Will Bomb Iran's
Nuclear Sites. Can They?
It seems unlikely
that Israel will strike Iran's facilities in its next round of retaliation,
officials said, or that it could prevail without America's help.
A woman breaks down at the memorial to Yulia Waxer
Daunov as family members and friends of the lost and kidnapped gather at
the site of the Nova Festival to mark the first anniversary of the attacks
by Hamas, in Re'im, Israel, on October 7. Israel's
Strikes Are Shifting The Power Balance In The Middle East.
Fighting In
Southern Lebanon Including Other Current Developments.
- It does show that the White House etc. does
care, for example, an American father of Hamas hostage Itay Chen pushes the
US, and Israel on ‘Plan B’ as negotiations falter Chen, a New York
City native, said he and his wife have been given "unprecedented"
access to the White House, the CIA, and other top agencies throughout
the last year to discuss ongoing strategies to try and get the hostages out of
Gaza. Chen met with national security adviser Jake Sullivan a dozen
times, as well as CIA Director William Burns and Treasury Secretary Janet
Yellen, they also held a weekly call with the White House.
The Israeli
military has claimed that it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s
headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in “the area of
Beirut.” Israel’s military also said it has expanded its “limited,
localized, targeted operations” into southwestern Lebanon.
The Hezbollah terror group has dug a
network of tunnels hundreds of kilometers long from Beirut to southern
Lebanon. The purpose of the additional network is reportedly to enable
the swift and covert movement of forces during a war against Israel.
Israel’s
Invasion of Lebanon: A diplomatic push to avert a broader war in Lebanon fell apart
after Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader.
Security experts have said that a
political deal is needed to restore calm.
The
Limits of U.S. Influence: In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7,
President Biden stepped in
to support Israel, counsel moderation and
seek a lasting peace.
Behind
the War of Words: When President Emmanuel Macron of France said over the weekend that
countries should stop supplying Israel with weapons if they want a
cease-fire, the reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel
was swift and
scathing.
A
Pro-Palestinian Protest in London: The U.S. ambassador Jane Hartley was en route to the dedication of
a climate-themed mural in London by Shepard Fairey, who created the iconic
Obama ‘Hope’ poster. But then a
protest began.
Selling Weapons to the Houthis: The
Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was freed in a prisoner exchange with
the United States, is negotiating
with the militant group in Yemen.
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Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) reported that
one of its flights made an emergency landing after a mouse was discovered
in a passenger's in-flight meal.
Underneath People stand near a pit after
Lebanese soldiers destroyed a communication device in a Beirut parking lot:
Hezbollah's Ibrahim Akil, together
with other senior figures listed below. killed in an Israeli airstrike
was one of the Lebanese militant group’s top military officials, in charge
of its elite forces, and had been on Washington’s wanted list for years.
Rather than bemoaning the emergence of the BRICS, the West should
court those member states that have a stake in making sure that the
grouping does not become an overtly anti-Western outfit intent on
undermining the global order. The
Battle For The BRICS.
Curiosity about the Chinese system does not mean that states can or
will emulate it; China’s particular blend of a strong ruling party and
elements of a capitalist market economy would be difficult to replicate
elsewhere - China’s Soft Sell Of
Autocracy.
Whether the next phase in Ukraine’s military campaign leads to a strong
position at the negotiating table with Putin or a war stuck in grinding
attrition - or even dangerous escalation - may ultimately depend on
American voters’ choice in November. What
the U.S. Election Means For Ukraine.
Iran’s Dilemma: How to Preserve Its Proxies and Avoid Full-Scale War
The rocket threat from Gaza led Israel to invest heavily in its
“Iron Dome” defense system. It has also increasingly fortified the physical
cordon around the Gaza Strip, including building underground barricades to
prevent militants from tunneling underneath, which was nonetheless breached
in the latest attacks. How It Came To The Gaza War.
The reason for Israel to strike Beirut was to kill Hassan Nasrallah who ordered
strikes on Israel.
After a decade in which populism has surged all over the world, it
has become clear how easy it is for political leaders to undermine
democratic norms in service of their pursuits of power, especially during
large-scale wars. Democracy must always be defensive, but first, it must be
built. Israel must end the war and start building. The Fight For A New Israel.
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Lebanon blocks Iranian plane from entering airspace after Israeli threats. Israel is on
the brink of ground invasion.
Although Israel and Egypt disagree about how extensive the tunnels between
Gaza and Egypt are, it is undeniable that Hamas has smuggled weapons
through this route. Closer cooperation between the United States, Egypt,
and Israel on shutting down those networks and better policing of Gaza’s
Mediterranean coastline must be part of this equation. Egypt should also
join Qatar in threatening to deny Hamas officials access to, and expel them
from, their territory. Middle East Shuttle Diplomacy Should Be Backed by Meaningful
Pressure.
Israel launched rare airstrikes in the center of Beirut early today (Monday),
escalating the conflict with Hezbollah. Days after killing Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah, the Israeli military said an airstrike in southern
Lebanon had killed the leader of Hamas in the country. Israel also
conducted strikes overnight against Houthi
targets in Yemen.
Reacting to the series of attacks on Monday, Hezbollah’s deputy
secretary-general, Naim Qassem, said the group was prepared to repel an Israeli ground operation. Lebanon’s prime
minister, however, cautioned that Israel’s attacks could create more than 1
million refugees and provoke the worst refugee
crisis in the
country’s history. Warning that Israel is waging war on seven fronts,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country was changing
the regional balance of power.
US Secretary of Defence warns of ‘serious consequences’ for Iran if
it attacks Israel or exploits tensions, and added that he supports
'Israel’s right to defend itself'. The fear
is that this will be a long war. The Israel Defense Forces say a
"limited, localized and targeted" ground operation is underway
against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In a series of masterstrokes,
Israel upended Hezbollah’s plans. Removing Hassan Nasrallah and senior
commanders of the Iranian-backed group has temporarily deprived it of its
ability to coordinate attacks. At the same time, the IDF’s use of
airstrikes has affected Hezbollah’s arsenal. First images as sun rises over Beirut.
U.S. vice presidential candidates Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen.
J.D. Vance - running mates of Vice President Kamala Harris and former
President Donald Trump, respectively - got their moment in the spotlight on
Tuesday night when they faced off in what is expected to be the final
debate ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
Nearly 200 missiles have been launched into Israel from Iran,
according to the Israeli military. The attack is a "significant
escalation", the US has said - with Israel vowing to retaliate and
Iran warning the barrage was "a glimpse of our
capabilities". Upheaval In Lebanon.
Case Study: A year
before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into
World War II, Roosevelt exhorted the country to “build now with all
possible speed every machine, every arsenal, every factory that we need to
manufacture our defense material.” China’s rapid rearmament and the ongoing
wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are signs that the clouds are
darkening. China’s Rapid Rearmament.
One does not have to believe in a “new Middle East” where Israel is
fully accepted, trading, and engaging with its neighbors, to appreciate
that there is a different, realistic path forward. That path is not one of
perpetual occupation and perpetual war. But for now, the latter is the path
Israel is taking. Where Will Israel’s
Multifront War End?
One of Tehran's main
concerns is that a conflict could destabilize the country as the regime
approaches a historic leadership transition. However, if Israel’s
retaliation is extensive, the conflict could spill over into the Gulf and
potentially involve the United States. Iran
Regional Position.
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To win a long-term, intensive multifront
war, Israel would have to increase defense budgets; open new production
lines for munitions; harden ist critical national infrastructure, such as
energy and communication; and expand the IDF’s pool of recruitment to
additional parts of Israeli society. Most critically, however, it will have
to resolve the country’s political crisis, which has undermined
ist resilience, encouraged ist enemies, and prevented Israel from
developing the broader strategy it needs. The war’s most vital front is the
eighth one: the home front. Israel And The
Coming Long War.
The
United States no longer enjoys primacy in Asia. But an effort to restore
this primacy would be seen by many Asian countries as disastrously
revisionist. Asia Has No Hegemon.
Supreme Court leak exposes
(pro-Trump) chief justice meddling in Trump's cases
Much of the U.S. public and
policy conversation is consumed by how to counter China and defend American
workers, infrastructure, technology, and intellectual property against
foreign threats. This focus downplays the domestic harms that measures
ostensibly aimed at strengthening U.S. national security can have on the
health and vibrancy of the United States democracy, society, and innovation
ecosystem. The Case Against The China
Consensus.
Countries worldwide need policies that
encourage private competition by supporting young people and startups
rather than protecting aging incumbents - oligopolies, billionaires, and
tycoons who now dominate the American system. Restoring faith in capitalism
will require learning from countries where the system still works for
ordinary people. Switzerland, The US,
Taiwan, And Vietnam.
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On 17 and then again on 18
September Israel decided to blow up the pager devices carried by
Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday out of concern its secret
operation might have been discovered intending it to be the opening blow in
an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah. The
Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded,
defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an
elaborate ruse. The Question Is Why Now.
The world’s attention understandably
remains focused on achieving a ceasefire that can end the killing and
destruction in Gaza, bring hostages and prisoners home, and reduce the
chance of a bigger, regional war. However, to succeed at all these aims,
the states involved must be guided by a vision of the future that is clear,
credible, and fair. A Two-State Solution
That Can Work.
The United States and its allies are
facing a crisis of deterrence. China is menacing Philippine vessels in the
South China Sea and possibly readying its military for an invasion of
Taiwan. But if the overriding goal is to avoid being bogged down in
defending U.S. interests and thwarting aggression in the region Washington
must recognize that deterrence demands accepting uncomfortable risks. How To Adapt An Old Theory To New Realities.
Three Americans were arrested in
Venezuela over a plot to kill President Nicolás Maduro and
destabilize the country. The Terrorist Plot.
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With more wealth sloshing around the Chinese
economy, corruption has been on the rise in recent decades. But until now,
no one has studied empirically the characteristics of the people whom the
CCDI has found guilty of corruption nor tried to establish empirically the
extent to which corruption has contributed to inequality. How Corruption
Fuels Inequality In China.
Having long underestimated the far right, European
foreign policy elites are slowly awakening to how it influences the
EU. However, because they idealized the EU and imagined the far right
as an alien entity, they misunderstood the relationship between the
two. Europe Takes A Trumpian Turn.
Turkey's NATO membership comes under scrutiny
because it plays an anti-NATO role. Following this, Erdoğan says he wants
Ankara to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meaning China.
In contrast with the China shock that began in the
1990s, when the United States bore the brunt of a huge loss of market share
and jobs in the manufacturing sector, the coming version will hit Europe
hardest. China’s
Double Threat To Europe.
Since the invasion, the United States’ strategy
toward the war in Ukraine has been characterized by wishful thinking. If
only Washington can impose enough costs on Putin, it can convince him to
halt the war in Ukraine. If only it could send enough weapons to Ukraine,
Kyiv could push Russian forces out. After two and a half years, it should
be clear that neither outcome is in the offing. Why Putin Will
Never Give Up In Ukraine.
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Arab identity still exists in a narrow sense as a
reminder of past glory and a common culture. It is a symbolic force that
has no mechanism for collective action across the region. Having lived
under a succession of religious empires, Arabs did not undergo a necessary
transformation to facilitate the triumph of nationalism. In the Arab
region, religion remains the decisive social force and the driver of
collective action. The Myth Of The
Middle East Regional Powers.
The Arab people have criticized the Arab League
since its founding for its persistent failure to shoulder its professed
responsibilities. The organization no longer has a political role and has
devolved into a diplomatic forum that avoids action on critical issues. Why The Arab League Failed.
Trump describes an America in decline, the
laughingstock of the world. According to Trump, Putin’s Russia at least has
some of the dignity strength, and self-respect that a great nation
deserves. The Autocratic Allure.
Two posters disseminated by Hamas today vowing to
blow up Israeli buses:
Ukraine’s Zelensky says incursion into Russia is
part of a plan to end war, this is where Putin threatens WWIII.
Archaeologists discovered the remains of a 7,000-year-old
road of an ancient city known as Soline which once connected the ancient
city to the mainland.
Although Transjordanians are the Hashemite
monarchy’s traditional power base, their role is weakening. Most are poor
and susceptible to radical Islamic movements. Bedouins in southern Jordan
are more likely to side with the Saudis than live in poverty. Jordan’s Uncertain
Future.
Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled over the
past decade reaching 44% of the total population, according to a new World
Bank report released today. Based on a recent household survey covering the
five governorates of Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon, and most of Mount
Lebanon, the report finds that 1 out of every 3 Lebanese in these areas was
poverty-stricken in 2022, highlighting the critical need to strengthen
social safety nets and create jobs to help alleviate poverty and address
widening inequality. Lebanon’s Place In The Middle East.
Some Arabs accuse Qatar of enforcing Washington's Middle
East policy. In contrast, others accuse it of supporting terrorism,
providing moral and financial support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and allying
with Iran and Turkey - Qatar's Enigmatic Foreign Policy.
The situation in the West Bank is likely to
deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by extension, Saudi
Arabia, which shares a long border with its neighboring kingdom. Meanwhile,
the PA could break down, and if it does, it bodes ill for both Palestinian
territories. The
New Imbalance of Power In The Middle East.
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The situation in the West Bank is likely to
deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by
extension, Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with its
neighboring kingdom. Implications Of The
War’s Spread To The West Bank.
The Palestinians must look forward to a
successor who can finally overcome the tensions that have paralyzed Abbas’s
leadership from the outset. Abbas’s successor will have to resolve this
dilemma by unifying the fractured Palestinian polity, including
incorporating Hamas into formal political structures, such as the
PLO. The Fall Of Mahmoud Abbas.
A Split in the Cabinet. Israeli Defense Minister
Yoav Gallant reportedly presented a plan to the security Cabinet calling
for a cease-fire with Hamas in exchange for the release of hostages.
Gallant warned that if no cease-fire agreement were reached, Israel could
see an escalation into a multifront war, with potentially dire
consequences. Meanwhile, the security Cabinet approved Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to maintain a military presence in the
Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border as part of a cease-fire
deal. Gallant voted against the proposed arrangement, while the national
security minister abstained.
In recent years, the Arabian Peninsula has been
home to a riff among Gulf countries, civil war, and the emergence of Saudi
Arabia and UAE as influential regional actors. For The UAE, Change Is An Existential Threat.
 
Cambodia celebrated the return of 70 stolen Khmer
ancient artifacts to the Southeast Asian nation from abroad.
The day Michael Chakma was forcefully bundled into
a car and blindfolded by a group of burly men in April 2019 in Dhaka, he
thought it was the end. Michael Chakma, a Bangladeshi Indigenous
people's rights activist who was abducted and imprisoned five years ago,
was found alive.
At various times in modern history, Turkey, Iran,
and Egypt have presented themselves as regional powers in the Middle East,
but they are not strong enough nations to avoid the political and military
influence of more powerful countries. The Myth Of The
Middle East Regional Powers.
Egypt has recently come into the spotlight again
because of the significant Gaza-Egypt border. Whereby seeing it as a
whole Egypt’s history and geographic isolation have led many Egyptians
to accept the country’s despotic leadership, believing that better days are
ahead. But Egyptian society can flourish under the management of a bold
leader – which it hasn’t had in decades. Egypt
And The Country’s Historic Role In The Muslim World.
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for
how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv,
meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally Worried About The Prevailing Gloomy Narrative And The Sense
That Ukraine Is Losing The War.
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Foreign governments and international institutions
must engage with nonstate groups to address acute humanitarian needs and
improve governance. Myanmar’s fragmentation may be unavoidable, but it does
not have to be catastrophic for its people. The Situation in Myanmar Today.
Washington shouldn’t be giving Beijing time -
which the Biden administration’s détente-like policy does - to worm its way
out of the economic conundrum it created for itself. Chinese leaders have
long believed that the United States is trying to suppress Chinese economic
growth anyway. The Cold War Between
China, Europe, and the United States.
On June 6, 1944, 150,000 Allied troops landed on
the beaches of Normandy and suffered an astonishingly low rate of
casualties. A stunning military accomplishment, it was also a masterpiece
of trickery. Operation Fortitude, which protected and enabled the invasion,
and the Double Cross system, which specialized in turning German spies into
double agents, The Spy that Defeated the Nazis.
When China overestimated the influence of Jewish
interests in U.S. politics during World War II, it wasted valuable time and
a few stacks of paper. But with the Chinese government now trying to
position itself as the world’s alternative superpower, misreading the
politics of Zionism could be far more costly. When Israel Was in China.
After decades of struggling with Hamas and months
of fighting a massive, brutal war against it, Israel still seems unlikely
to defeat the group. But it can still win, by helping Hamas defeat itself. How to Deal with Hamas.
Deglobalization
offers analysts a simple story to tell about changes to the global economy.
But the reality is more complex: put plainly, it is impossible for a global
economy characterized by a large U.S. deficit on one side and a large
Chinese surplus on the other to truly fragment. The world needs to have a
healthy debate about the drawbacks and benefits of economic integration.
But that debate must start from a frank acknowledgment that many
characteristics of the contemporary global economy still push toward more,
not less, integration and that addressing these factors will have real
costs. Deglobalization.
China does not
want to divert resources from its primary security concern in the east, the
near seas in the Pacific, to its western front with India. Modi does not
want to get caught in a prolonged crisis with a more powerful neighbor that
would impede his domestic and global ambitions. Returning stability to the
border between China and India falls short of rapprochement, but it would
be a far better outcome than overt war. Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, not Deter,
Chinese.
Not everything is
going Putin’s way. Russia’s military withdrawal from Azerbaijan is a sign
of weakness. So, too, arguably, is Armenia’s pivot to the West and the
Georgian public’s mass resistance to what the opposition labels the
“Russian law.” But if Russia looks weaker in the region, the West does not
look stronger. Russia’s Quest for a
Gateway to Iran and the Middle East.
Climate extremes
will batter and test it, as they already have. But building more resilient
election infrastructure and introducing greater flexibility in how, when,
and where people register and vote can limit the damage. Doing so will be
increasingly essential on a rapidly warming planet. Every voter should have
the ability to cast a vote that gets counted - no matter the weather. Sixty-Eight Countries Will Hold Elections.
There will be no return to the Cold War
transatlantic relationship, but Erdogan’s Turkey has not yet crossed over
to the Chinese-Russian orbit, and there is an opening for Turkey to tilt
back toward the West if its partners make the advantages of cooperation
clear. Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.
The odds are that Modi and the BJP - still
massively popular - will recover. But given the challenges of leading a
coalition government and facing a stronger opposition, Modi will more
frequently find himself on the back foot. Bharatiya
Janata Party Suffer a Setback.
Zelenskyy is seen here when a WWII veteran wants
to kiss his hand. Zelenskyy just before it could happen embraces the
veteran:
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Do democracies find retaining legitimacy more
difficult than democracies? It would be reassuring to think so, were it not
for the particular questions lodged, like malevolent matryoshka dolls,
within this larger one. The Hidden Driver of Modern
History.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in
Singapore Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told the same conference that the
Philippines will defend its rights in the disputed waters, citing a
landmark and binding 2016 arbitration ruling from The Hague, and
he warned that any Chinese actions that lead to the death of a Filipino
could trigger the mutual defense pact with the United States. The China Sea Syndrome.
The Democratic Party of Japan came into power
promising a closer relationship with China and a Japanese foreign policy
that was more oriented toward the country’s Asian neighbors. Ozawa’s
mega-junket certainly seems like a pretty big statement to that end. To China and South
Korea.
Israel was able to release four hostages from
Hamas. World leaders, including US President Joe Biden, France's
Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have welcomed the news
of the hostage rescue.120 hostages that are still held by Hamas.
The goal for those who support Ukraine should be
twofold: to bring about that cease-fire as quickly as possible with as much
territory as possible on Ukraine’s side of the line. Achieving this outcome
requires changing Russian expectations about the West’s staying power.
Ukraine can win only when Russian leaders worry about how the war will
progress in the coming years. To Sow that Fear in Moscow.
The Berlin Wall’s
fall was a unique moment in geopolitical history, ushering in an era of
unipolarity as the United States became the world’s hegemon. But it also
heralded an unprecedented economic phenomenon: convergence. Requiem for Hyperglobalization.
Leaders can learn from the past in both positive
and negative ways, about what to do and what not to do. But they have to
learn the big lessons first, and the most important of all is how to avoid
horrendous wars that reduce generations of achievements to rubble. Will America and
China Heed the Warnings.
Only with complete access to intelligence
information could one form a fully independent view of the threat. But the
FBI director’s and the CENTCOM commander’s statements almost certainly
reflect the classified intelligence they are reading and the law enforcement
and military operations in which their organizations are involved. Their Words
Should be Taken Seriously.
Since late 2023, the Houthis in Yemen have posed
an extraordinary challenge to global shipping. As a result of the
Iranian-backed group’s relentless attacks on commercial vessels in the Red
Sea. Beijing needs a safe Red Sea, but wants Washington to deliver it. The Red Sea.
Even with the media largely on his side, Modi
crashed into a newly skeptical electorate. If he is to regain their
confidence, his self-aggrandizement will have to give way to humility,
openness, and less control. This could well be a tall order for a leader so
used to thinking of himself as ten feet tall. How Indian Voters Constrained Modi.
The pact is one of at least 31 bilateral security
agreements that various countries have signed or are slated to sign with
Ukraine in the coming months. Western officials tout these agreements as a
sign of their countries’ enduring commitment to help Ukraine in its war
against Russia, but Ukraine’s strongest supporters say those bilateral
arrangements can’t replace Kyiv’s ultimate goal of joining NATO. Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.
Is Peace Still
Attainable? Experts once thought globalization would ensure peace. Now,
they’re looking elsewhere. For example, the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine
can only end with deals that don’t satisfy anyone completely.
Underneath:
Israeli and Palestinian women’s organizations have a rich history of
political engagement. Members of Women Wage Peace gather at the Jerusalem
promenade overlooking the Old City, reciting a common secular prayer as
they call on Israeli and Palestinian leaders to come together in dialogue:
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The importance
and distinctiveness of the evolution of Western European right-wing
populism become particularly clear when compared with comparable
developments in the United States. The election of Donald Trump in
2016 turbocharged these trends. How To
Understand Extreme Right-Wing Parties.
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We are mapping the world’s urban population,
on the left, the year 2018 on the right is 2050.
 
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