This
website contains subjects I covered in my seminars (done within the context of
a company) with the yellow buttons on the bottom what I used as a foundation
for my older seminars between 1997-2007.
Copyright
by Eric Vandenbroeck
For your own comments about related subjects,
you can contact me via: ericvandenbroeck1959@gmail.com
20 April 2019:
With rumors rife with Russian interference on 21 April Ukraine will go back to
the poll. Mark Galeotti in his recent book (published February 12, 2019)
maintains that in the case of Ukraine Russia's approach is both rooted in
military thinking and in the civilian national security establishment. Whereby
appart from a look at the role of ethno-nationalism during the current
elections, I will follow this up with the question: Why is Ukraine so important to Russia.
13 April 2019: Image of little girl crying at US border
wins World Press Photo Award:
10 April 2019: The first black hole to be photographed:
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10 Nov. 2018: Tomorrow will mark the passing of 100 years
since the end of World War I. In 1918, on “the 11th hour of the 11th day of
the 11th month,” on a train (of which the above-pictured one with Macron and
Merkle is a replica) in a forest near the French city of Compiègne the
armistice was signed. I did do extensive research on the days that followed
the armistice and will place that on a later date. My presentation of the
following research, however, refers to some of the less known aspects of
another centennial. The Kristallnacht of 9/10 November 1938: Hitler's Bolshevism and the myth
of the Jewish Conspiracy.
12 Nov. 2018: World War I became known as the war
to end all wars due to how deadly it was to those who went into combat. The
advent of mustard gas and chlorine gas along with trench warfare, made the
casualties rate much higher than previous conflicts. A complete timeline of what
happened. 15 Nov. 2018: While the previous graphic
about the First World War shows that most lives were lost on the battlefields
throughout East and Western Europe, the role of the war in shaping and
creating the state-system of the modern Middle East merits much more than an
afterthought. The Ottoman Empire and the Allied Powers signed an armistice on
October 30, 1918, which was supposed to end hostilities, even before the
armistice in Europe was signed. But the wars in the Middle East didn’t stop
with the armistice. Why World War I was pivotal to the creation of the
modern Middle East. 17 Nov. 2018: In a 23 August interview with
CNN famous Watergate reporter Dan Rader said that if you think the Michael
Cohen guilty plea and Manafort's conviction was a shock then "stay
tuned." The former news anchor said other things Mueller is working on
will make yesterday "pale by comparison." All indications are that
after a long period of silence during the close of the midterm campaign,
Mueller is about to do something big, or a series of somethings. What Robert Mueller Knows. 19 Nov. 2018: While it has been suggested
that Robert Mueller is looking at multi-state collusion, not just a bipolar
collusion involving Russia, and why the Khashoggi case might receive even
more traction going forward. Robert Mueller and Saudi Arabia.
21 Nov. 2018: Air pollution reduces average
life expectancy by 2 years:
28 Nov. 2018: Two days ago marked a decade
since Pakistan-based terrorists killed over 160 people in India’s financial
capital of Mumbai. The city remained under siege for days, and security
forces disjointedly struggled to improvise a response. The 10th anniversary of an assault
that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about
Kashmir.
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8 Dec. 2018: This was an explosive week
for the Russia probe as the special counsel signals interest in wrapping up at
least some of his most high-profile efforts with a sentencing memo's
involving Michael Flynn, Michael Cohen, and Paul Manafort. Why the Robert Mueller endgame is
starting now.
10 Dec. 2018: Belgium’s Africa Museum, once
seen as Europe’s last unreconstructed museum of the colonial era has just
reopened. One of the present day Congolese contributors Mpane says he
initially had doubts about taking part, despite reassurances that proper
context would be provided for the colonial statues. "But when I started
to dig a bit deeper into it, I realized we're really talking about our
history and we must try to make sense of it. If we don't take part in it, who
is going to do it?" Belgium’s Africa Museum Had a Racist Image. Can It
Change That?
12 Dec. 2018: Tree cover map of the world. This
helps to answer a few geographic questions: Why do Australians live on the
eastern seaboard, why do we divide Africa into "North" and
"Sub-Saharan", why isn't Brazil's interior settled?
14. Dec. 2018: As someone who works with
information a lot, I am aware that there are many tendencies in both the
context and how we think that can lead us astray and distort our view of the
world. But is there something we can do about it? I’ve started with points more
related to how we think as individuals, moving through to more society-wide
actions: Here are eight ways how we can form more accurate
views of the world. 16. Dec. 2018: Arrived in Shanghai this
morning:
20. Dec. 2018: Crossing into N. China today:
26. Dec. 2018: While there are many good
things about China, and while there are also some concerns, the one issue that
has remained under-researched is: China's ticking time-bomb. Updated 4 Jan. 2019
30 Dec. 2019: Encompassing 65 countries
with a combined gross domestic product of US$23 trillion and a total
population of 4.4 billion, the belt and road strategy was introduced as a way
to advance China’s political interests abroad, but is it viable? Many
projects also have drawn criticism for being overvalued or disconnected to
the development needs of the host countries, thus China’s grand ambition
furthermore may not necessarily be a road to riches for its partners. Thus has China's new Silk Belt and
Road failed? Updated 15 Feb. 2019 3 Jan. 2019: A New Year’s Day editorial in
China’s official military newspaper told its readers that “war preparations”
should be a top priority for the year. The following day, President Xi
Jinping offered a forceful reminder that Beijing considers Taiwan its most likely
focus on conflict. Is China planning to take Taiwan by force? 12 Jan. 2019: In an investment, spree
reminiscent of the golden years of 'big science' in post-war America, and
venturing into relatively new fields some in the West now feel threatened by
China’s advances in science. Unveiling China's big science. 27 Jan. 2019: Currently at the Sundance
Festival for 9 days, yesterday I was
able to see the full current version of the Cold Case Hammarskjöld
production, whereby it is remarkable (tipped off at the time by the
Hammarskjöld Foundation) how much the
basic scenario still is like the one I commented on in August 2016 and as it appears to me only the filming of
certain scenes were not done yet at the time. Why the mystery of Hammarskjöld
murder might soon be solved. |
5 Nov. 2018: Mapping the world’s urban population,
on the left the year 2018 on the right 2050.
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2 June 2018: Revisiting
India's Harappan civilization including new answers as to where the
Indo-European languages came from, enter:
5 June 2018: When history was first taking shape as a university
discipline in the nineteenth century, elite young men were fed a diet of
Greek and Roman history. Thus there was the misuse of antiquity and the Holy
Roman Empire, Nationalism, and today Presentism. Towards a future of
historical approach, enter:
10 June 2018: About Hard health
data, waste, and how a proper google search might help you.
Major Case Study 17 June 2018: Analyses of what is currently
happening in the world, including economically, going forward the next few
months: North and South
Korea, China, Russia, the US, Iran, Mexico, India, Central and South America,
Turkey, and so on. 20 June 2018: British Imperial Agents
invade Russia P.1: July 16-17 will mark the centennial of the death of
Nicholas II and his family. Placing this in its larger context of British
intelligence and its intend to control Russia economically, here the lesser known aspects
surrounding the events of 1918. 23 June 2018: British Imperial Agents
invade Russia P.2: The British Banking scheme to
control Russia's economy and the Allied intervention. |
1 July 2018: Artificial intelligence: The question about
current medical efficiency and that of digital authoritarianism versus
liberal democracies. 18 July 2018: Murder and Conspiracy in
Tsarist Russia: Because today I will be leaving for on a lecture and seminar
tour in China, I will not be able to post much on this website for a while.
But considering that a recent two-part article detailing a plan to save the
Tsar and his family plus the British Banking scheme to control Russia's
economy and the Allied intervention, has drawn such a large readership I will
add a third part expanding on the previous two including: From Rasputin to little known
aspects of Nicholas's II abdication and the situation in Russia.
2 Aug. 2018: Today arrived in Guangzhou
China, (pictured below), tomorrow flight for transit in Beijing which will
end my current visit to China. And in two days will post an article about
Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the Manchurian episode (one of my topics
here in China) which in a way broke the League of Nations.
4 Aug. 2018: As I pointed out on 20 Jan. 2017,
the League of Nations ratified the Treaty of Versailles of which I detailed
what exactly it entailed. Today, nearing the centennial of the Versailles
Peace Conference, now some lesser known details. Shantung the Versailles Treaty and
the Manchurian episode.
13 Aug. 2018: Having previously taken
occasional note as this matter unfolded, following a meeting with a number of
experts, I am now putting all the dots together. The Trump/Russia
investigation what can be said today. |
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24 Dec. 2017:
The last few days have
been awash with a media avalanche about the fact that the Congress, a decade
ago quietly set up a multimillion-dollar program to investigate what are
popularly known as unidentified flying objects, UFOs. Why the initiative
might rather be reeking of desperation. 27 Dec.
2017: Conflicting scholarship on the issue of the Rohingya in Myanmar,
revisiting the Four Cuts Strategy, and China. What next with
Myanmar and its Chinese influence. Plus update 2
February. 30 Dec. 2017: With the conflict in Syria slowing down the conflict in
Yemen seems anything but over.
2 Jan. 2018: It
would be somewhat ironic if Iran, in its most strategically advantageous position
in the Middle East since 2010, when it was expected it would press its
advantage in the region in the year ahead is forced to put its ambitions
aside to deal with unrest at home. What to make of the Iran
protests?
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5 Jan. 2017:
The upcoming talks in
Seoul have brought up the question if a US limited strike strategy against
N.Korea is now on or off the table, whereby the question few are asking is in
reference to China. From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary
options? Plus update 18 January. 9 Jan. 2017:
While the end of
Northern Song and the beginning of Southern Song Dynasty is considered a high
point of Chinese innovation in science and technology, it is also where we
will discover, lay the roots of Chinese Nationalism or the idea Han
cosmopolitanism. The East Asian
World Order. 14 Jan. 2017: The
emergence of China's population as a monocultural and monoethnic people. The concept of Han Chinese.
18 Jan. 2018:
A Chinese nuclear attack submarine surfaced near Japan northwest of the
disputed Senkaku Islands and hoisted the Chinese flag this while it is also
reported that China builds up a new presence near the Doklam disputed border
with India.To better understand it is important to know about the post-1989
Chinese patriotism and belief that a strong China reclaiming its core
interests in Asia should be compatible with a China engaging in the liberal
international order at the global level. China's New Nationalism. 12 May 2018: Currently still working my way
through the Pacific region this is (showing the more industrialized areas
versus the others) what it looks like by night:
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28 Dec. 2016: Other subjects I have covered in the recent past
are Russia, Europe, Brexit, South Asia, the USA, South China Sea debacle, and
so on. A look at other developments going forward in 2017.
Above
a map of Syrian refugee flows. 20 Jan. 2017: On 10 January 1920, the League of Nations
ratified the Treaty of Versailles, officially ending World War I with
Germany. Much has been written about the treaty which concluded the First
World War, its competing and sometimes conflicting goals. And as we shall see
it also was the beginning of a long propaganda exercise to discredit the
victors. P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231. 1 Febr. 2017: Weimar politics and the reception of the Versailles Peace Treaty. The conspiracy
theory that gave rise to Hitler:
6 Febr. 2017: Given its centennial this year no doubt we will
see a lot of renewed discussions about the insurrection by Lenin and those
that were willing to fight with him to overthrow the Provisional Government.
But the most important event that followed no doubt where the complex
situations that ensued when the Russian Empire fell apart. First, some
unanswered questions about the event that brought the Civil War to the
Russian heartland. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.1: Why and how
the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian railway. 12 Febr. 2017: After the 1917 Bolshevist insurrection the
Russian Empire also stood at Germany’s mercy. But it was signing the diktat
peace treaty of Brest-Litovsk that largely determined the actual fighting in
1918. Captives of the Russian Civil War P.2: The Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of
Allied Intervention. 20 Febr. 2017: One of the most serious threats to the
Bolsheviks came from the would-be Russian government controlled, in Samara
and Ufa provinces. And when the latter issued a formal invitation for the
Allies to intervene militarily in Russia’s civil war. The United States and
Japan promptly signed an agreement on proposed troop deployments to Siberia.
Captives of the Russian Civil War P.3: The rise and fall of Komuch’s People’s
Army. 28 Febr. 2017: Just as in February 1917, in Petrograd, nobody
had got the revolution they wanted, by end 1918 nobody got the
counter-revolution they wanted. Thus the emergence of Kolchak as supreme
ruler. When the Allies started to pull back the Red Army stormed into Ufa
pushing the Whites back to the Ural Mountains. However, Trotsky’s heightened
focus on the eastern front did open up room for Denikin's Volunteer Army in
the south. While by not pursuing Yudenich into Estonia, Trotsky had levered
Britain into a policy of accommodation. Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.4: From White resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement. 12 March 2017: The increased risk of war in Korea. Will the U.S.
accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.1.
25 May 2017: Since early on 23 May, the media have been abuzz
about the incendiary statements about Iran and Israel posted on Qatar’s
state-run news agency (that authorities blamed on hackers) sparked a regional
dispute Wednesday, with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia blocking
Qatari media including Al-Jazeera. The series of disputes of which this is
just the latest spat, as we shall see, go back some years. Except for this
time around things are set to become much worse. Case Study: Qatar's master strategy or opportunism? 6 June 2017: Gulf plunged into diplomatic crisis as Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, the U.A.E. and Egypt broke diplomatic relations and cut all
land sea and air contacts with Qatar requesting Qatari citizens to leave. Two longtime
rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse. 11 July 2017: While the current US President's visit to Poland
and Nationalists speech a few days ago was largely symbolic, Polish
commentators didn't miss the fact that Trump mentioned the 1919/20 armed
conflict led by General Pilsudski including the fact that it was due to
President Wilson that Poland received its independence. The following
investigation, however, will dispell the myth that instead of being
negotiated with or arbitrated by the League of Nations the new Polish border,
in reality, were being determined by brute force because the provisions of
the Paris Peace Conference were unenforceable. Signed the same day as the
main Treaty of Versailles was signed, this article will also make mention of
the Polish Minority Treaty or "Little Treaty of Versailles" as it
is known. Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making of Eastern Europe. |
26 July 2017: In context what is an almost forgotten war,
China yesterday warned India it is willing to defend territory “at all
costs,” and it should not harbor any “unrealistic illusions” over a border
dispute that threatens to boil over into an open conflict. Will the Standoff Lead to a Second India-China
War? With Update 29 Aug. 2017
9 Aug.2017: Military officials for the first time leaked
information about a specific plan for a preemptive strike on North
Korea. The USA
"ready to fight tonight" claim.
12 Aug. 2017: Today I arrived per intercontinental flight in
Vienna where I will do archival research at Vienna's Haus-, Hof- und
Staatsarchiv. Above, to overcome jet lag (picture taken during) a walk near
the Nikolaitor in Vienna. After my visit to China 10-15 Dec., I then will fly
to London where I will do my final research for this year. 2 Oct. 2017: Following Christopher
Clark's bestseller, The Sleepwalkers about the origins of WWI (where Clark
revived the revisionist argument of the 1930's) a new discussion has ensued
about who and what started the First World War of which the consequences are
very much present today. A major topic, including in Clark's book which
devotes a quarter of his book to Serbia which he depicts as the real cause.
Having embarked on a detailed investigation, we now present a nine-part
investigation with new answers that help us understand why so many historians
got it wrong. The almost First World War P.1. 6 Oct. 2017: The almost First World War P.2. 10 Oct. 2017: The almost First World War P.3. 15 Oct. 2017: Leading up the
First World War P.4. 20 Oct. 2017: Leading up to
the First World War P.5. 24 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.6. 27 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.7. 30 Oct. 2017: How the First World War started P.8. 1 Nov. 2017: How the First World War started P.9. 2 Nov. 2017: Today marks the centenary of the Balfour Declaration,
a 67-word letter from Britain's then foreign secretary Arthur Balfour that
threw London's backing behind a homeland for the Jewish people in Palestine.
And while many demands that the UK government apologize for it, overlooked is
the fact that the statement would not have been made without prior approval
from the other Allied powers including the Vatican and a jostling with the
USA. A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour Declaration. 8 Nov. 2017: Over the weekend,
Mohammad bin Salman purged his potential rivals to impose a centralized
system that can confront what is perceived as the Iranian threat. Why Tehran Is
Winning the War for Control of the Middle East.
15 Nov. 2017: The following came as part of a discussion with
a former student when he asked me about the Bobrinskoy Orthodox Order of
Saint John (OOSJ) and the alleged "The Sovereign Hospitaller Order of
Saint John of Jerusalem Knights of Malta" thus opening up what for me is
a new research topic. Self-styled Knights Of Today. 19 Nov. 2017: Where the
previous part described the phenomenon of self-styled Knightly orders of St
John or of Malta, most of these orders claim to be continuations of various
alleged offshoots of what now appears to be a non-existing Russian Orthodox
priory. Case Study: Malta and the Russian Usurpation. 27 Nov. 2017: In the following
historical investigation it has become clear that the original SMOM Order
indeed continued unabated and that the Order's continuing sovereign status
was not forfeited through the loss of Malta. The
appointment of a new Grand Master. 2 Dec. 2017: Contested as some of the following developments
initially where they also contain some intrigue. The
foundations of the National Associations of the Order in England and Germany. 7 Dec. 2017: Following an earlier remark about Festing at the end of the
discussion here, there is in
fact a historical precedent in the form of an even more severe dispute that
more significantly gave rise to a vacancy in the Grand Mastership from 1951
to 1962(which Roger Peyrefitte's famous novel wrongfully attributed to a
grain deal). Vatican's opposition to the Order of Malta. |
9 Dec. 2017: While the UN security
council is to meet in order to discuss the US decision to Jerusalem as Israel's
capital, here an analysis of the Jerusalem problem and the two-state solution
option. Jerusalem Unveiled.
Arrived today per
intercontinental flight in Vienna where I will do research about the origins of
the First World War. Above, to overcome jet lag (picture taken during) a walk
near the Nikolaitor in Vienna. I hope to place the results of my investigation
on this website in the course of October 2017.
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23 Dec. 2016: While there is no clear resolution in sight when it comes to settling
the Israeli and Palestinian dispute, including the governments that offer the
Palestinian Authority political and financial support, are loath to risk
their relationship with Israel by advocating the creation of a Palestinian
state, another conference is about to take place. Paris Peace
Conference redux 15 Jan.2017:
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25 Dec. 2016: The Syrian civil
war and the Middle East going forward.
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20 Dec. 2016: From Versailles to
the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8: British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and
the Syria crisis today.
14 Dec. 2016: Sykes-Picot granted Britain the right to administer Syria after it
captured the Levant from the Ottomans in 1918.In 1919, London conceded at the
Paris Peace Conference both Levantine entities to France that moved quickly
and, aware of Hashemite progress, settled on creating Greater Lebanon.From
Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.7: The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today.
8 Dec. 2016: The profound
effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First
World War can be seen echoing through the history of the 20th century. From
Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6: The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British.
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In recent months a number of Arab States, like for example Amman, have celebrated the centennial of the 'Arab Revolt' 1916-2016.
20 Oct. 2016: Soon I will be
posting a series of three research articles about the Balfour Declaration and
several more about the Versailles Treaty and the Making of the Modern Middle
East, whereby first here an introductory: During the First World War, British
strategy for the Middle East was aimed at protecting India, which meant keeping
India’s numerous Muslim subjects tranquil. Initially, this gained Whitehall’s
support, as it feared foreign troops in the Muslim Holy Land would make the
followers of Hussein, the Sharif of Mecca, Emir of the Hejaz and potential
British ally, oppose him. From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.1: The
‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle
East.
24 Oct. 2016: Mark Sykes returned
to England where, almost immediately, he was thrust into negotiations with M.
Charles François Georges-Picot, French counselor in London and former French
consul general in Beirut, to try to harmonize Anglo-French interests in
‘Turkey-in-Asia’. Picot on the other hand had ‘expressed complete incredulity
as to the projected Arab kingdom, said that the Sheikh had no big Arab chiefs
with him, that the Arabs were incapable of combining, and that the whole scheme
was visionary.' From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2: The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle
East.
26 Oct. 2016: The rebellion
sparked by the Hussein-McMahon correspondence; the Sykes-Picot agreement; and
memoranda such as the Balfour Declaration (to be dealt with in detail) all have
shaped the Middle East into forms which would have been unrecognizable to the
diplomats of the 19th century.From Versailles to the Making of the modern
Middle East P.3: The Menace of
Jihad and How to Deal with It.
29 Oct. 2016: French rivalry in
the Hijaz; the British attempt to get the French government to recognize
Britain’s predominance on the Arabian Peninsula; the conflict between King Hussein
and Ibn Sa’ud, the Sultan of Najd; the British handling of the French desire to
take part in the administration of Palestine; as well as the ways in which the
British authorities, in London and on the spot, tried to manage French, Syrian,
Zionist and Hashemite ambitions regarding Syria and Palestine.From Versailles
to the Making of the modern Middle East P.4: The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question.
6 Nov. 2016: The British authorities
in Cairo, Baghdad, and London steadily lost their grip on the continuing and
deepening rivalry between Hussein and Ibn Sa’ud, in particular regarding the
possession of the desert town of Khurma. British warnings of dire consequences
if the protagonists did not hold back and settle their differences peacefully
had little or no effect. All the while the British wanted to abolish the Sykes–
Picot agreement. From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5: The Syrian question.
16 Nov. 2016: This is the most
important and longest part. Following, a gripping account of the swashbuckling
during the Paris Peace Conference deliberations including the Arab/Syrian, the
King-Crane Commission, impasses and some breakthrough at the end. From
Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6: The Paris Peace Conference deliberations.
25 Nov. 2016: One of the most
far-reaching outcomes of the First World War was the creation of Palestine,
initially under Britain as the Mandatory, out of an ill-defined area of the
southern Syrian boundary of the Ottoman Empire. Considering this, on 16 Nov.
2016, the British Parliament debated the Balfour Declaration and how its
upcoming 2017 Centennial should be handled. Yet even professionals are often
not familiar with the details surrounding the Balfour Declaration, thus here a
detailed investigation. The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1.
28 Nov.2016: Showing the topic
is of ongoing relevance, following the British Parliament last week, tomorrow a
discussion about the Balfour Declaration is to take place in the House of
Commons. My analysis, however, is wholly independent of pro or contra stance
and instead focuses on discovering the historical details that have been left
out in recent discussions. The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2.
2 Dec. 2016: Apart from the
strategic consideration that they needed Palestine for the imperial defense of
India, the decision by the War Cabinet to authorized foreign secretary Balfour
to make a declaration of sympathy with Zionist aspirations in November 1917,
one could ad, was also a curious blend of sentiment (the romantic notion of the
Jews returning to their ancient lands after 1,800 years of exile) and anti-
Antisemitism (world Jewry was a force that could vitally influence the outcome
of the war) also led them to this decision.
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3.
29 November 2016
discussion about the Balfour Declaration at the British Houses of Parliament.
5 Dec. 2016: As we have seen, in
the end, the idea was to use President Wilson’s recognition of the Balkan
nations’ right to self-determination – namely, freedom from Ottoman rule – to
overcome his opposition to the implementation of this same policy in the Middle
East. By supporting Zionist aspirations in Palestine, the Lloyd George
Government thus strove to compel Wilson to expand his policy regarding the
'small nations' from the European regions of the Ottoman Empire to its Asian
territories. The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.4.
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6 June 2016: While a Brexit vote is very much possible, the leading voting reason
is for Britain to quit the EU in order to curb immigration. But not only
would there be the grave economic implications when the UK leaves, the Brexit
campaign and the rise of Europe's populist right have also dented Turkish
hopes of ever joining the EU. What will happen
after Brexit:
17 June 2016: The Islamic State has lost grip on more than 10% of territory in six
months, following is what is still there:
25 June 2016: "Whe're out", well sort of. The Implications and Germany's nightmare:
10 July 2016: In the wake of the more than a 100 people that were arrested in Baton
Rouge, Louisiana today, one photo has stood out:
With a situation where five police officers were
shot at in Dallas, the picture, of course, should not miss the complexity of
the situation. 11 July 2016: The new British prime minister will lead a divided parliament and a
divided country. The next steps of Theresa May. 12 July 2016: The Hague Tribunal Decides China has "no
historic rights" in South China Sea: An international tribunal ruled
that China’s claim to historic rights in most of the South China Sea has no
legal basis, dealing a severe setback to Beijing that the U.S. fears could
intensify Chinese efforts to establish its control by force. Continue…
13 July 2016: Boris is back, and could be a risky pick. Today’s cabinet appointments sends a clear signal
however.
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16 July 2016: The failed attempt by military factions to
overthrow the elected government could be viewed as a victory for democracy.
But it also reflects the increasing political polarization, repression of
dissent, and fear for the country’s security that have emerged under
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkey’s new Sultanate.
20 July 2016: WikiLeaks releases 300 thousand internal emails
from Erdoğan's AKP - through to July 7, 2016 plus 500,000 documents from in
the wake of the failed coup. Crackdown in Turkey targeted over 58,000 people.
Greek Air force confirms Erdogan was not chased by fighter jets during coup. Turkey's government fears second coup:
24 July 2016: Today British Intel published in the print
edition of Focus Magazine shows Turkey knew in advance about coup plus Conclusion
about what is really happening in Turkey.
1 Aug. 2016: Like Aleppo, Putin gave Chechen people of Grozny
a chance to leave. Then destruction began. the Syrian Civil War is now in a
critical stage. The make or break battle currently underway,
rebels appear to be losing.
29 July 2016: Up to 1 million people could be forced to flee
their homes in Iraq soon as fighting intensifies in a government offensive to
retake Mosul from Islamic State militants, the International Committee of the
Red Cross (ICRC) said, plus 'growing evidence' Russia is using cluster bombs
in Syria. And then today we have Aleppo. FM
denounces "cynical game" of Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow. 6 Aug. 2016: Battle for Aleppo intensifies as rebels around 5
am this morning entered the Ramouseh Artillery Base, and a few hours later, the
Islamic Front said the siege of east Aleppo has been broken. Who are
the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond.
11 Aug 2016: Russia announces war games after accusing Ukraine
of terrorist plot: Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in
Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine. 14 Aug 2016: Rebels in Aleppo trying to advance after broken
the siege of Aleppo, question is for how long. 22 Aug
2016: Investigating the dead of Hammarskjöld in the Congo. Mads Brügger "Cold Case Hammarskjöld" and the making of the
Operation Celeste myth, plus not a myth: Head
of UN, Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag
Hammarskjöld.
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27 August 2016: It is not without
historical irony that the centenary of the Great War was accompanied by civil
war in Syria and Iraq, revolution in Egypt, and violent clashes between Jews
and Arabs over the Palestinian question, as if to offer proof that many of the
issues raised but not solved by the First World War and its immediate aftermath
are still with us today. Investigating
the never-ending Great War.
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24 Aug 2016: As suggested
by me earlier Turkish tanks and jets
backed by planes from a U.S.-led coalition launched an offensive into Syria
today. President Erdogan said the operation was targeting both Islamic State
and the Kurdish PYD party. As I suggested on 25 May, the effect of the
operation will be to preserve a corridor between Turkey and ISIS. Turkey told
the Kurdish YPG that when they do not move back east across the Euphrates
River within a week that Turkish troops will drive them back by force. International
rivalry and the battle for Syria.
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10 Sept. 2016: The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the Grand Mosque
in Mecca: What two million people are about to do here.
28 Sept. 2016: Did Aleppo's Grozny
moment arrive? If
there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there
isn't anymore. |
24 June 2016: Yesterday we were
on transit in N.Thailand where we visited among others “the White Temple” near
Chiang Rai:
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24 May 2015: In what
appeared to be an act of defiance Greece's defense minister recently
threatens to send migrants including jihadists to Western Europe. And while
this would be problematic, my opinion is that Greece will turn around and
agree to yield about austerity. Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU.
9 Aug. 2015: Fighting in Syria seen problematic
for Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under discussion. 21 Aug. 2015: The Weather as influenced by El
Nino going forward. 26 Aug. 2015: From Chinese yuan adjustment to
the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn. 23 Sept. 2015: Why the
Islamic State represents a new and more dangerous evolution in the
development of violent extremism and demonstrate its deep roots in Islamic
history (click on image):
Online tool reveals terrorist networks and behavior over
time. 20 Nov. 2015: In the last few weeks, Islamic State has carried out
massacres in Baghdad, Ankara, and south Beirut, and downed a Russian plane
with 224 passengers. It has taunted survivors with threats of future attacks
as if its deepest wish were to provoke violent retaliation. Paris
and the end times of ISIS: 21 Nov. 2015: The Paris debacle has also put the “long united
long divided” Belgium back in the limelight. Belgium powers have been highly
decentralized to try to prevent the country from breaking apart. Why
this complicates the reaction to the Paris attacks: On the left smog in Delhi, India. On the right
smog in Beijing, China.
26 Nov. 2015: In a few days world leaders will gather in Paris
for a grand conference on climate change, the 21st such get-together since
the United Nations began to grapple with the issue. A torrent of
pronouncements and promises has already issued forth—from Pope Francis, Xi
Jinping, Barack Obama and many others. Here is
a blueprint as to how to approach the problems: 28 Nov. 2015:
Russia's sanctions
might increase: Why Turkey shot down the Russian Jet.
12 Dec. 2015: Three days ago I
arrived in Myanmar P.1: I look at why despite the NLD's sweeping win, public
doubts linger about the military's government role given its record of
political intervention and lucrative network of businesses that could be
impacted by future policy shifts. I also look at the background of the so
called peace agreement and why the fighting in Myanmar continues. Discovering the background from where today’s Myanmar
evolved. |
17 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.2: A lot of the current fighting is taking
place in the area around Hpakant, not surprising one of the leading
jade-producing zones. Plus concern NLD goes the way of AFPFL in the
parliamentary era of the 1950s. To Myitkyina and Kachin State.
19 Dec. 2015: Myanmar P.3 ethnic
cleansing in Sittwe: Among others the 969 movement (by some seen as
influenced by the psywar department) and how intolerance threatens Myanmar’s
nascent transition to a more open, democratic state. Two
kinds of Monks. On
the left rural market, on the right walking through Shan State
23 Dec. 2015: Traveling through
Myanmar P.4 Shan State: Even after having signed a ceasefire, the Burmese
military continued to attack the Burma Army and the Shan State Progress
Party/Shan State Army-North areas. Ethnic rebels in the north of Burma, such
as the Kachin Independence Army (KLA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army
(TNLA), have accused the Burmese government of actively participating in the
drug trade, whilst at the same time claiming to be cracking down on it. The
Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country. 27 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.5: If the Kachin have
suffered the most at the hands of the Burmans in recent years, it is the
Karen who have fought them for the longest.
Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State. 30 Dec. 2015: Traveling through Myanmar P.6: Moulmein, Orwell, Kipling, the Mon, including
revisiting the bizarre insurgency of two teenage boys. Mawlamyine
and beyond. 24 Feb 2016: South China Sea: Risks
of a clash caused by China’s paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces
to bear in defense of U.S. allies. 10 April 2016: What is commonly known as the 'Russian Civil
War' was, in fact, a whole series of overlapping and mutually reinforcing
conflicts. The second First World War. 17 April 2016: After another incident just before in the Baltic Sea,
currently the news is abuzz with reckless behavior by Russia vis a vis a US
plane: We tell you why it happened. 6 May 2016: Aung San Suu Kyi Asks U.S. Not to Refer to
‘Rohingya’: Myanmar update. 16 May 2016: Does
the Middle East Need New Borders? 18 May
2016: Although there are limits to these weapons' effectiveness, N. Korea
would counter strike using its considerable artillery, rocket and missile
arsenal. Continue… 25 May 2016: As the fighting intensifies in southern Turkey
and northern Syria, various Kurdish factions are becoming significantly more
important. How close is ISIS to defeat, and will Turkey
invade Syria? |
I attended the Honolulu
Festival 7-8 March 2015 with underneath
some of the photos I took:
29 Jan. 2015: Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European
extreme right wing parties.
1 Jan. 2015: The EU unable to solve its
fundamental problem, unlikely that the Russian Federation will survive in its
current form, why instability in the Arab world is to continue, the problem for
China. The world going forward:
|
6 July 2013: With the approach of the
centenary of the outbreak of the Great War, attention will focus again on the
‘origin’ of the First World War.
Following is the story of an unnecessary tragedy - one that can be
understood only by retracing the steps taken by those who went down the road
to war. Almost every day it seemed possible that the crisis could be settled
as so many had been over the previous decade; almost every day there was a
new suggestion that gave statesmen hope that war could be avoided without abandoning
vital interests. With each passing
day, we see how the personalities of leading figures such as Kaiser Wilhelm
II, the Emperor Franz Joseph, Tsar Nicholas II, Sir Edward Grey, and Raymond
Poincaré were central to the unfolding crisis, how their hopes and fears
intersected as events unfolded, and how each new decision produced a response
that complicated or escalated matters to the point where they became almost
impossible to contain. A new investigation
why the First World War broke out.
7 July 2013: Dissecting the events
in Sean McMeekin's book; The Real Russian Origins of the First World War. 1March 2014: Enter the Unfolding Crises in
Europe and the Ukraine/Crimea:
2 March 2014:
Resurgence or is
Russia Doomed? Continue:
|
4 March 2014: Thailand and the Political and
Economic Volatility in Important Markets.
6 March 2014: Intelligence scoop of what is happening with the
Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:
9 March 2014: Had Israel lost its
war of independence in 1948, its territory would have been divided among the
invading Arab forces. And as a recent article argues the name Palestine would
have vanished into the dustbin of history. After the war, the Arab states
continued to manipulate the Palestinian national cause to their ends. The Palestinians' Real Enemies. 16 March 2014: Case
Study: The ‘decline of the West’ and a look behind
Putin’s new Eurasianism. 4 Dec. 2014: Putin’s
speech: The main question
now is whether Russia will push back with what power it has left or find a
way to compromise with this shifting worldview.
|
30 Nov. 2014:
Venezuela’s international reserves declined $1.3 billion following
declining oil price. The
worsening situation will make 2015 a crucial year for Venezuela:
26 Nov. 2014: While al Qaeda might have longed to
take control of a significant nation-state, it primarily remained a sparse, if
widespread, terrorist organization. It held no significant territory
permanently; it was a movement, not a place. But the Islamic State, as its name
suggests, is different. It sees itself as the kernel from which a transnational
Islamic state should grow, and it has established itself in Syria and Iraq as a
geographical entity. The
Future of the Islamic State:
|
14 Oct. 2012: Al Qaeda in the Islamic
Maghreb: The
Intervention Force in Mali. 24 Nov. 2012: The contradictory
web that fuels conflicts in the Middle East.. 30 Nov. 2012: Background of the crises in Egypt: Consequences for the balance of power between the
Brotherhood and the military.
27 Nov., 2012: Background of the crises
in Egypt: Protesters
Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices. 5 Dec. 2012: The
USS Eisenhower, an American aircraft carrier that holds eight fighter bomber
squadrons and 8,000 men, arrived at the Syrian coast today in the midst of a
heavy storm, indicating US preparation for a potential ground intervention. Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical
Weapons, yet why we should still be worried. 7 Dec. 2012: Background
of the crises in Egypt: What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan. 10 Dec. 2012: Why the War in Syria will not end
with the removal of the al Assad regime. 13 Dec. 2012: Will the European Crises soon be
over? 20 Dec. 2012: Suitable for
Christmas and New Year, the below are just a few of the more than 100 titles
about ‘positive thinking’ published this month. Plus then there is ‘The Power
of Negative Thinking’ by Bob Knight. The Secret of Positive
Thinking, Self Help books and Happiness.
|
24 Dec. 2012: Of
importance to China, the question of the next Dalai Lama is political, not
spiritual. The future
Dalai Lama: 28 Dec. 2012: Apart
from ‘positive thinking’ no other new religious movement coming from the USA
has received so much attention as Scientology. Here a complete expose
including an update about the signposts for reincarnated Scientologists who
come from outer space plus 'could Belgium Bring Down Scientology?' and a
review of Going Clear: Scientology, Hollywood & The Prison of Belief.
Enter Scientology:
29 Dec. 2012:
Myanmar army jets yesterday fired on positions near the Kachin Capital: China/US, 2013 projection
for Myanmar/ Burma. 30 Dec. 2012: What
next with Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia: The Arab World in Transition 2013. 31 Dec. 2012: Two of
the subjects that will become of increased importance the next months are
Europe and the Middle East once more, today: The fate of Europe in 2013. 17 Jan. 2013: Al
Quaeda and the Algerian hostage crises plus: Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Morocco,
Lybia, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Senegal. 18 Jan. 2013: French colonial policy redux or a new
chance?: The Next Phase
of the Mali Intervention. 20 Jan. 2013:
Algerian hostage crises is over: When will Future Attacks take place. 22 Jan. 2013:
Long-term conflict brewing in the Middle East: The Sunni-Shia struggle. 1 July 2013: Countdown Egypt: Why Egypt's Mursi
will either resign or be sacked on 3 July. 26 Aug. 2013: Obama’s Syria and What the
Confrontation Will Look Like: |
23 Nov. 2013: China creates air defense zone over
Japan-controlled islands. As Japan and China increase air activity around the
disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea, the United States is
steadily increasing its active involvement to reassure Tokyo and send a warning
to Beijing. But Beijing may seek an opportunity to challenge U.S. primacy in
what China considers its territorial waters. Continue:
17 Nov. 2012: Iran and the Gaza Offensive: Why the
Iranian connection will complicate the situation.
|
17 Sept. 2012: China: "For The Respect
Of The Motherland, We Must Go To War With Japan." History
as a political weapon:
21 Sept. 2012: The past ten days Salafi led
unrest in reaction to an anti-Islamic video spread through the Muslim world.
Here a look at who is behind it: The Salafist Resurgence. 1 Oct. 2012: Forecast
for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Former Soviet Union,Middle East/North
Africa, South Asia, Latin America. 15 Oct. 2012: The
Start of Europe’s fragmentation.
20 Oct. 2012: Lebanon on a knife-edge:
With Turkey moving warplanes to the Syrian border,US troops on standby in
Jordan, the new tensions in Lebanon today are widening the influence of the
Syrian civil war to neighbouring countries; Background
forms the rebel Free Syrian Army supply lines in Lebanon.
|
24 Oct. 2012: The insurgency in Thailand: Multiple
Dilemmas.
27 Oct. 2012: Satellite pictures show
hundreds of buildings by Muslim Rohingya are destroyed in the coastal town of
Kyaukpyu alone. Myanmar's Shame:
30 Oct. 2012: Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting
the course of future events.
7 Nov 2012: Upcoming
turmoil in Asia? 16 Nov. 2012: The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli
relations, other groups than Hamas, wider relevance or importance. |
29 Dec. 2011: Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil
route, yet why
they will not. (with
Iran's Nuclear Sites map).
22 Dec. 2011: Why the European crisis has been
solved (for a while).
6 Nov. 2011: Military
steps up plans for Iran attack?
27 Oct. 2011: Europe’s Crises Worsening.
21 Oct. 2011: The financial crisis Europe faces it
has not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs).
3 Oct. 2011: Geopolitical Imperatives of Greece and
Consequences of the Coming Default:
31 Aug. 2011: Three days that
rocked the world: The
Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the last days of the Soviet Union
Enter: Arab Spring 2011
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23 Jan. 2008: According to the Dictionary of Gnosis & Western Esotericism,
2005, p. 1049: "Because of the nature of its worldview, Scientology can
be seen as belonging within the domain of Western esotericism" (the
latter topic I covered in a seminar in 2001 see update here:) Now, following the recent book by Andrew Morton, “Tom Cruise: An
Unauthorized Biography” Case
Study (updated July 2008): Scientology Unveiled. 18 July 2008: Proceeding from Thomas Craughwell’s recent description in “How the
Barbarian Invasions Shaped the Modern World” I trace the Huns to their Mongol
related origin in what is now China, and how close they came to taking
Rome: Continue... 22 July 2008: The
following three books focus on the time when Turkish troops under Mustafa
Kemal (aka Ataturk) took Smyrna. However, they also present an introduction
to the larger context of the events in question. As we will next see, some of
these issues still play al role in Turkish bid for EU membership, today:
7 Aug. 2008: France has rejected Rwandan claims accusing
French officials of playing an active role in the Rwandan genocide of
1994. But what are the real facts? Case Study: The
French Rwanda File: 14 Aug. 2008: Case Study: Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The
Future of the Middle East. 28 Aug. 2008: Communal violence is
continuing in the Indian state of Orissa, and since this has been going
on for some time
we investigated: Why Orissa 5 Sept. 2008: While ‘Science
of the Apocalypse’ drew a law suit demanding that the U.S. halt
construction, The Telegraph today reports LHG Scientists get "end
of the world" death threats. Apocalypse: The History of an Idea.
Why some people believe the Large Hadron
Collider cause the end of the world. 6 Sept. 2008: Today Turkey's President Abdullah Gul has made a
landmark visit to Armenia. Due to Turkey’s denial of an Armenian
genocide, normally such contact would take place. In fact, it is only
recently that also Germany’s historical role in the Armenian drama is emerging. And
one reason Germany was so complacent in the matter might have been because
Wilhelm II hatched a plan where Turkey would be colonized by Germans. Case Study: 8 Sept. 2008: Last week a new High-tech
tool for unmasking counterfeit wine was unveiled. Yet it was hard to be sure
whether a wine was fraudulent or not-- when even definitions of what “wine”
was were not clear. Hence we researched: The Secret
Wine Report. 19 Sept. 2008: While a recent book "Alexander Dugin
and Extreme Right Networks" claimed neo-Eurasian involvement with the
secret services, following a mention by Newsweek and Der
Spiegel, the CSM now asks if Alexandr Dugin is really the new sage of the
Kremlin. Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of
Empire? 13 Sept. 2008:
Chinese Yellow Turban rebellion, Celestial and Terrestrial Spirits, Taiping
Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, Falun Gong. Case Study: The Politics of Qigong. 14 Sept. 2008: Five bomb
blasts leave 21 people dead in New Delhi. Attacks claimed by "Indian Mujahadeen" like recent attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur.
Media reports said 10 people had been arrested. 17 Sept. 2008: Having
carefully watched last night’s ABC special “UFOs: Seeing is Believing” we
continue with: Investigating, UFOs Seeing is Believing. 24 Sept. 2008: Millenarian Bolshevism and Nazism, Russia's
New Map, Analyses of Abimael Guzman’s Shining Path, The Paranoia of Pol Pot's
Communism, the Globalization of Genocide, Mongolia and East Germany, Cuba and
Bulgaria, Romania and North Korea, Eastern Germany and Soviet Central Asia,
Bin Laden's conspirational paranoid, Radical Islam, the Caliphate and Iraq. Apocalyptic
Politics During the 20st Century and Beyond. |
28 Sept. 2008: From
New Thought to Self Improvement Books:
29 Sept. 2008: The Politically
Incorrect Guide to Psychology and Psychiatry:
4 Oct. 2008: Three
recent books “Healing, Hype, or Harm?: A Critical Analysis of Complementary or
Alternative Medicine”, “Suckers: How Alternative Medicine Makes Fools of Us
All" and “Trick or Treatment: The Undeniable Facts about Alternative
Medicine” do not only critique alternative medicine, but tells us also a lot
about its history. We investigated further: Alternative Medicine in Context.
5 Oct. 2008: But
while regulations regarding alternative therapies are now being
considered, it might be time to do the same with mainstream medicine today.
For example, when do new treatments stop being experimental? We all have a
tendency to think that "newer is better" and "more is
better" when it comes to medical care. We want to believe the marketing
and media hype that describes many modest scientific steps as
"lifesaving new technology." Case Study: Medical Advancements to the Test. 14 Oct. 2008: Where today
saw the end of a Khmer Rouge trial, early
2009 will see the high level trial of chief interrogator Kaing Guek Eav,
also known as Duch. And while the reason for the genocidal craze remained a
mystery to date, we investigated and discovered the utopian longings and
delusions of lost or stolen grandeur combined with delusions of persecution
along with virulent conspiracy theories. The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror. 5 Jan. 2009: Having
already commented on the Israeli
military incursion into the Gaza Strip which grabbed the
headlines this week, we investigated P1: Geostrategy of Israel. 7 Jan. 2009: The Problems
with Israel and Palestine P2: Geostrategy
of the Palestinians. 10 Jan. 2009: The
Problems with Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel. 17 July 2009: Jemaah Islamiah is most likely behind the fatal blasts in
two Jakarta hotels today. Jemaah
Islamiah and Global Jihad. 25 July 2009: China Today. 10 Oct. 2009: Having
mentioned this more than a year ago, the BBC today now confirms that
Turkey and Armenia are preparing to sign a historic agreement normalizing
relations. 9 March 2010: Predicaments
of Pakistan in Afghanistan: 15 March 2010: The dressing-down from Israel's closest ally over
the approval of plans for new homes in Jerusalem during the US vice
president's visit continued in full force over the weekend. One solution to
leave Jerusalem undivided however would be to internationalize it. A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem: 10 April 2010: While it will have little effect on the permission
for the US to have a transit bases there, it is clear from the April 7
revolution in Kyrgyzstan, that Russia is capable of creating “color
revolution”-style uprisings in countries where it wants to increase its
influence. And why China might be concerned, plus Uzbekistan, Tajikistan,
Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, The Baltic States. Continue: 23 April 2010: Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about
Greece. Continue…
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