After the Algerian military yesterday's final assault on terrorists
holding hostages at a gas complex, the hostage crisis is over. The man who
orchestrated the attack, Mokhtar Belmokhtar,
is a veteran jihadist with a long-standing relationship with al Qaeda in the
Islamic Maghreb, other jihadist networks in North Africa and al Qaeda branches
elsewhere in the Islamic world.
Al Qaeda's North African branch is a loose network of jihadist groups
that differ in their goals but will collaborate on certain operations. Belmokhtar often had tenuous relationships with other
leaders within al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, particularly Abdelmalek Droukdel (also known as Abu Musab Abd al-Wadoud), the al Qaeda branch's overall commander and leader
in northern Algeria. Belmokhtar's faction of al Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb enjoyed a great deal of autonomy until al-Wadoud's close ally Yahya Abu al-Hammam was appointed as
emir of the al Qaeda sub-branch for the Sahel region in October 2012 and
Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, Belmokhtar's
rival, was named his deputy. Around the same time, Belmokhtar
-- who had been passed over twice for the position of emir of the Sahel -- was
demoted to leader of the Mulathameen Brigade, or the
"Masked Ones," during the al Qaeda branch's reshuffle of its southern
leadership structure. Al-Wadoud and other emirs had
lost control of Belmokhtar and factions aligned with
him and sought to regain power by demoting Belmokhtar.
This -- along with a dispute over the allocation of the revenues from hostage
ransoms, usually negotiated by Belmokhtar -- created
a split between Belmokhtar and al Qaeda, though it is
unclear whether he was forced out or he quit.
In December 2012, Belmokhtar established a new
jihadist group called the "Those
Who Sign in Blood" which he intended to use to expand operations into
countries throughout the Sahel. He probably will use the same means to finance
his group that he and his colleagues in al Qaeda used -- most notably, arms
trafficking, drug and tobacco smuggling and kidnapping Westerners for large
ransoms. Belmokhtar said he would recruit militants
from across North Africa and the Sahel, though previously he typically
recruited from the western portion of the region (primarily Mauritania, Mali
and Algeria). The nationalities of the foot soldiers in the attack on the Algerian
natural gas facility -- including Tunisians, Libyans and Egyptians -- indicate
that Belmokhtar has the ability and finances to
recruit foot soldiers from across North Africa. However, the commanders in the
operation were Algerian, Nigerian and Mauritanian, indicating that Belmokhtar has not yet recruited commanders from eastern
North Africa.
The lack of security in nearby Libya and the presence of al Qaeda
militants in Algeria and Mali
make the region a breeding ground for militancy, so Belmokhtar
likely will be able to find many recruits.
Moreover, Belmokhtar appears capable of
tapping into regional militant networks and using them to his advantage. For
instance, several of the Egyptians who participated in the Jan. 16 kidnapping
also allegedly took part in the Sept. 11, 2012, attack on the U.S. Consulate in
Benghazi, according to investigations into the Algeria operation.
The Loss of Key Militant
Commanders
When Belmokhtar established "Those Who
Sign in Blood," several of his key commanders and lieutenants from his al
Qaeda brigade went with him. Three of them, Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri,
Tahar Ben Cheneb and Abu al-Baraa
al-Jazairi, were either killed or captured
during the 16 Jan. operation. These men had been the orchestrators
and commanders that Belmokhtar often sent to carry
out complex attacks.
Prior to the Jan. 16 attack in Algeria, Belmokhtar's
three most successful operations were his involvement in the kidnapping of 32
European tourists in central Algeria in 2003, an assault by more than 100 men
on a Mauritanian military barracks in Lemgheiti in
2005 and the kidnapping of seven Europeans working at a uranium mine in Niger
in 2010. Many of those involved in the high-profile 2003 kidnappings are now in
jail. Al-Nigeri and Belmokhtar
commanded the raid on Lemgheiti in 2005, and Cheneb, al-Nigeri and al-Baraa al-Jazairi took part in the
assault in Niger. Their deaths or capture are a large blow to Belmokhtar's operational capability, but it is possible
that there are lower-profile, albeit important, commanders that could be used
in future operations.
Future Attacks
The loss of key leaders during the Algeria operation could mean that Belmokhtar and his brigade will need more time before they
can carry out another attack involving so many foreign hostages. Moreover,
other large-scale kidnappings at energy facilities, particularly in Algeria,
are unlikely in the short term because of the heightened security presence that
can be expected at many of these sites -- especially high-profile,
government-owned facilities.
Although the most recent operation was in Algeria, it is not the only
country at risk for militant attacks. Algeria, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Morocco, Libya and Nigeria share external conditions conducive to such
attacks.
First, porous borders, which are characteristic of many countries in the
Sahel, are ideal for allowing the flow of regional and transnational jihadists.
Lack of border security becomes even more of an issue when neighboring
countries are unstable. For instance, the Algeria attack took place along the
vast and largely unsecured border with Libya. Second, a weak security
environment, often in conjunction with a weak central government, poses obvious
risks. In places like Mali, Libya and Mauritania, a weak central government
unable to control and secure its territory makes the country susceptible to a
militant presence.
Third, a country's terrain -- especially vast deserts, mountains and
largely uninhabited areas -- can make it ideal for militant corridors,
trafficking routes or camps. Finally, a population that is sympathetic to jihad
ideology makes it difficult for governments to identify and eradicate militant
elements.
Moreover, Belmokhtar's group is not the only
militant organization that kidnaps foreigners in the Sahel; such incidents
typically occur three to five times each year. Sometimes other militant groups
sell their hostages to Belmokhtar, who buys them with
the intention of negotiating large ransoms.
Although it may be several months before Belmokhtar
and his brigade carry out another operation on the same scale as the Algeria
attack, militancy in the region will continue along with kidnapping operations.
Militants in the region could also conduct operations against potentially
vulnerable targets such clinics, schools, nongovernmental organizations and
tourist sites, making the region's security environment even more tenuous.
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