By Eric
Vandenbroeck and co-workers
Lashkar-e-Taiba
Middle East Operations
With Turkey
moving warplanes to the Syrian border, US
troops on standby in Jordan, the new tensions in Lebanon today are widening
the influence of the Syrian civil war to neighbouring
countries.
Tensions run high in Lebanon as the government
declared an emergency meeting following a bomb attack that killed a top
security official. Clashes and protests have been reported throughout the
country amid opposition calls for the PM to resign.
The official, Lebanese Internal Security Forces chief Brig. Gen. Wissam
al-Hassan, was directly involved in providing logistical and supply-line
support in Lebanon for the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is attempting to
overthrow the regime of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The assassination was
likely intended to disrupt the Syrian rebels' support networks -- as well as to
trigger a series of retaliatory strikes against Syrian assets and allies and to
spark a broader increase in sectarian conflict in Lebanon.
To expand its operations in Syria, the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) must
secure supplies of weapons, food, water and other necessities. As we pointed out in January this year the most important
supply lines for the rebels come from Lebanon.
Riots and protests continued into Saturday as thousands of people across
Lebanon voiced their ire at the car bomb blast in Beirut on Friday that claimed
the lives of eight people. Over a hundred people were also injured in the
explosion that killed Brigadier General Wissam al-Hassan.
Enraged citizens have blocked roads with burning tires as a sign of
their protest, while clashes in the city of Tripoli close to the southern
Syrian border fueled fears the Syria’s conflict is overflowing across the
border.
Apart from his involvement with the rebel supply lines recently Hassan,
47, a Sunni Muslim, had helped uncover a bomb plot that led to the arrest and
indictment in August of a pro-Assad former Lebanese minister.
He also led an investigation that implicated Syria and Hezbollah, the
powerful, predominantly Shia Muslim-backed group, in the assassination of Rafik
al-Hariri, a former prime minister, in 2005.
Recently also Hezbollah flew an
Iranian drone from Lebanon into Israel.
The reason why there are requests for prime minister Mikati to step dawn
is because the opposition and its supporters believe Mikati is too close to
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which is part
of Mikati's government.
The funeral of al-Hariri in a few days will probably be used as a
rallying point by the opposition.
The Syrian regime clearly has a strategic interest in stirring up sectarian tensions and triggering
retaliatory strikes in Lebanon. Facing fractures within its Alawite core and
increasing pressure on its supply lines, the regime needs to change the
strategic environment. It has also seen its close
ally, Hezbollah, limit the support it has traditionally provided to
Damascus and essentially take a self-preservation posture.
Lebanon's religious
communities it should be noted are divided between those who support the
government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - including
many Shias - and those mostly from the Sunni community who back the rebels
(on Sunni Islam see also).
The Oct. 19 attack could intimidate anti-al Assad individuals in Lebanon
from becoming more involved in the Syrian conflict. More important, instability
and sectarian clashes in Lebanon -- especially ones that involve the Lebanese
Alawites or Shiites - could weaken support for the rebels in Syria while
reviving support for al Assad.
Indeed, retaliatory attacks already seem to have started. Supporters of
al-Hassan and the Future Movement will likely target Syrian assets in Lebanon,
including Syria-allied businessmen, intelligence operatives and even Syrian
businesses. Actions against Syria's main allies in Lebanon - Hezbollah and its
March 8 coalition partners, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Shiite Amal
Movement - is also likely. Back-and-forth retaliations along sectarian lines
would relieve some of the pressure on Damascus and push the Syrian conflict
into Lebanon.
(See also Lebanon chronology of
key events underneath the 2e map)
The Syrian regime in particular, facing a fracturing of its Alawite
core, could recalculate the value of causing instability next door. And
incidents such as the Sassine Square bombing could thus be replicated.
Lebanon chronology of key
events:
1920 September - The League
of Nations grants the mandate for Lebanon and Syria to France, which creates
the State of Greater Lebanon out of the provinces of Mount Lebanon, north
Lebanon, south Lebanon and the Bekaa. 1926 May - Lebanese
Representative Council approves a constitution and the unified Lebanese
Republic under the French mandate is declared. 1940 - Lebanon comes
under the control of the Vichy French government. 1941 - After Lebanon is occupied
by Free French and British troops in June 1941, independence is declared on
26 November. 1943 March - The
foundations of the state are set out in an unwritten National Covenant which
uses the 1932 census to distribute seats in parliament on a ratio of
six-to-five in favour of Christians. This is later
extended to other public offices. The president is to be a Maronite
Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of the Chamber
of Deputies a Shia Muslim. Independence 1943 November-December -
Free French forces detain members of the recently-appointed government, which
had declared an end to the mandate, before releasing them on 22 November,
henceforth known as independence day. France agrees to transfer power to the
Lebanese government from 1 January 1944. 1957 - President Camille
Chamoun accepts the Eisenhower Doctrine, announced in January, which offers
US economic and military aid to Middle Eastern countries to counteract Soviet
influence in the region. 1958 - Faced with increasing
opposition which develops into a civil war, President Chamoune
asks the US to send troops to preserve Lebanon's independence. The US,
mindful of the recent overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy, sends marines. Arab-Israeli war 1967 June - Lebanon plays
no active role in the Arab-Israeli war but is to be affected by its aftermath
when Palestinians use Lebanon as a base for attacks on Israel. 1968 December - In
retaliation for an attack by two members of the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) on an Israeli plane in Athens, Israel raids
Beirut airport, destroying 13 civilian planes. 1969 November - Army
Commander-in-Chief Emile Bustani and Palestine Liberation Organisation
(PLO) Chairman Yasser Arafat sign an agreement in Cairo which aims to control
Palestinian guerrilla activities in Lebanon. 1973 10 April - Israeli
commandos raid Beirut and kill three close associates of Mr
Arafat. The Lebanese government resigns the next day. 1975 13 April -
Phalangist gunmen ambush a bus in the Ayn-al-Rummanah
district of Beirut, killing 27 of its mainly Palestinian passengers. The
Phalangists claim that guerrillas had previously attacked a church in the
same district. (These clashes are regarded as the start of the civil war). 1976 June - Syrian troops
enter Lebanon to restore peace but also to curb the Palestinians, thousands
of whom are killed in a siege of the Tel al-Zaatar camp by Syrian-allied
Christian militias in Beirut. 1976 October - Following
Arab summit meetings in Riyadh and Cairo, a ceasefire is arranged and a
predominantly Syrian Arab Deterrent Force (ADF) is established to maintain
it. Israel controls south 1978 March - In reprisal
for a Palestinian attack on its territory, Israel launches a major invasion
of southern Lebanon. The UN establishes the United Nations Interim Force in
Lebanon (UNIFIL) to oversee the Israeli withdrawal, restore peace and help
the government re-establish its authority. 1978 June - Israel
withdraws from all but a narrow border strip, which it hands over not to
UNIFIL but to a proxy mainly Christian militia - the South Lebanon Army. Israel attacks 1982 June - Following the
attempted assassination of Shlomo Argov, Israeli
ambassador to Britain, by a Palestinian splinter group, Israel launches a
full-scale invasion of Lebanon. 1982 September -
Pro-Israeli president-elect Bachir Gemayel is assassinated. Israel occupies
West Beirut, where the Phalangist militia kills thousands of Palestinians in
the Sabra and Shatila camps. Lebanon Profile 1982 September - Bachir's
elder brother, Amine Gemayel, is elected president. 1982 September - The
first contingent of a mainly US, French and Italian peacekeeping force,
requested by Lebanon, arrives in Beirut. (1983 October - A total
of 241 US marines and 56 French paratroopers are killed in two bomb
explosions in Beirut, claimed by two Shia groups.) Buffer zone set up 1983 May - Israel and
Lebanon sign an agreement on Israeli withdrawal, ending hostilities and
establishing a security region in souther 1985 - By 6 June most
Israeli troops withdraw but some remain to support the mainly Christian South
Lebanon Army (SLA) led by Maj-Gen Antoine Lahoud which operates in a
"security zone" in southern Lebanon. 1985 16 June - A TWA
plane lands in Beirut after having been hijacked on a flight from Athens to
Rome by two alleged members of Hezbollah demanding the release of Shia
prisoners in Israeli jails. 1987 21 May - Lebanon
abrogates the 1969 Cairo agreement with the PLO as well as officially
cancelling the 17 May 1983 agreement with Israel. 1987 1 June - After Prime
Minister Rashid Karami is killed when a bomb explodes in his helicopter,
Selim al-Hoss becomes acting prime minister. Two governments, one
country 1988 September - When no
candidate is elected to succeed him, outgoing President Amine Gemayel
appoints a six-member interim military government, composed of three
Christians and three Muslims, though the latter refuse to serve. Lebanon now
has two governments - one mainly Muslim in West Beirut, headed by El-Hoss,
the other, Christian, in East Beirut, led by the Maronite Commander-in-Chief
of the Army, Gen Michel Aoun. 1989 March - Aoun
declares a "war of liberation " against the Syrian presence in
Lebanon. 1989 October - The
National Assembly, meeting in Taif, Saudi Arabia, endorses a Charter of
National Reconciliation, which reduces the authority of the president by
transferring executive power to the cabinet. The National Assembly now has an
equal number of Christian and Muslim members instead of the previous six to
five ratio. 1989 November - President
Rene Moawad is assassinated shortly after his election and succeeded by Elias
Hrawi. The following day, Selim el-Hoss
becomes prime minister and Gen Emile Lahoud replaces Awn as
Commander-in-Chief of the Army on 28 November. Civil war ends 1990 October - The Syrian
air force attacks the Presidential Palace at Baabda and Aoun takes refuge in
the French embassy. This date is regarded as the end of the civil war. 1990 December - Omar
Karami heads a government of national reconciliation. 1991 - The National
Assembly orders the dissolution of all militias by 30 April but Hezbollah is
allowed to remain active and the South Lebanon Army (SLA) refuses to disband.
1991 May - A Treaty of
Brotherhood, Cooperation and Coordination is signed in Damascus by Lebanon
and Syria and a Higher Council, co-chaired by their two presidents, is
established. 1991 July - The Lebanese
army defeats the PLO in Sidon so that it now confronts the Israelis and the
SLA north of the so-called "security zone". 1991 August - The
National Assembly grants an amnesty for all crimes committed during the civil
war, 1975-1990. Aoun receives a presidential pardon and is allowed to leave
for France. 1991 October - Lebanon
participates in the Middle East Peace Conference launched in Madrid. 1992 February - Sheikh
Abbas al-Musawi, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, is killed when Israeli
helicopter gunships attack his motorcade on a road south-east of Sidon. By 17 June all Western
hostages held by Shia groups have been released. 1992 October - After
elections in August and September (the first since 1972), Nabi Berri,
secretary-general of the Shia Amal organisation,
becomes speaker of the National Assembly. 1992 October - Rafik
Hariri, a rich businessman, born in Sidon but with Saudi Arabian nationality,
becomes prime minister, heading a cabinet of technocrats. 1993 July - Israel
attempts to end the threat from Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) in southern Lebanon by
launching "Operation Accountability", the heaviest attack since
1982. Israel bombs Beirut 1996 April -
"Operation Grapes of Wrath", in which the Israelis bomb Hezbollah
bases in southern Lebanon, the southern district of Beirut and the Bekaa. An Israeli attack hits a UN base at Qana and results in the death of over 100 displaced
Lebanese civilians sheltering there. US negotiates a truce and
an "understanding" under which Hezbollah and Palestinian guerrillas
agree not to attack civilians in northern Israel, and which recognises Israel's right to self-defence
but also Hezbollah's right to resist the Israeli occupation of southern
Lebanon. Lebanon and Syria do not sign the "understanding" but the
Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group (ILMG), with members from the US, France,
Israel, Lebanon and Syria, is set up to monitor the truce. 1998 April - Israel's
inner cabinet votes to accept UN Security Council Resolution 425 of 1978 if
Lebanon guarantees the security of Israel's northern border. Both Lebanon and
Syria reject this condition. Lahoud becomes president 1998 November - Army head
Emile Lahoud is sworn in as president, succeeding President Hrawi. 1998 December - Selim el-Hoss becomes prime minister, heading a cabinet which
includes no militia leaders and only two ministers from the previous
administration. 1999 June - South Lebanon
Army (SLA) completes its withdrawal from the Jazzin
salient (north of the "security zone") occupied since 1985. 2000 March - Israeli
cabinet votes for the unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern
Lebanon by July 2000. 2000 April - Israel
releases 13 Lebanese prisoners held without trial for more than 10 years but
extends the detention of Hezbollah's Sheikh Abdel Karim Obeid and Mustafa Dib
al-Dirani. Israeli withdrawal 2000 May - After the
collapse of the SLA and the rapid advance of Hezbollah forces, Israel
withdraws its troops from southern Lebanon, more than six weeks before its
stated deadline of 7 July. |
25 May - 25 May declared
an annual public holiday, called "Resistance and Liberation Day". 2000 October - Rafik
Hariri takes office as prime minister for a second time. 2001 March - Lebanon
begins pumping water from a tributary of the River Jordan to supply a
southern border village, despite opposition from Israel. 2002 January - Elie
Hobeika, a key figure in the massacres of Palestinian refugees in 1982, dies
in a blast shortly after disclosing that he held videotapes and documents
challenging Israel's account of the massacres. 2002 September - Row with
Israel over Lebanon's plan to divert water from a border river. Israel says
it cannot tolerate the diversion of the Wazzani,
which provides 10% of its drinking water, and threatens the use of military
force. 2003 August - Car bomb in
Beirut kills a member of Hezbollah. Hezbollah and a government minister blame
Israel for the blast. 2004 September - UN
Security Council resolution aimed at Syria demands that foreign troops leave
Lebanon. Syria dismisses the move. Parliament extends
President Lahoud's term by three years. Weeks of political deadlock end with
the unexpected departure of Rafik Hariri - who had at first opposed the
extension - as prime minister. Hariri assassinated 2005 February - Rafik
Hariri is killed by a car bomb in Beirut. The attack sparks anti-Syrian
rallies and the resignation of Prime Minister Omar Karami's cabinet. Calls
for Syria to withdraw its troops intensify. 2005 March - Hundreds of
thousands of Lebanese attend pro- and anti-Syrian rallies in Beirut. Days after his
resignation, pro-Syrian former PM Omar Karami is asked by the president to
form a new government. 2005 April - Mr Karami resigns as PM after failing to form a
government. He is succeeded by moderate pro-Syrian MP Najib Mikati. Syria says its forces
have left Lebanon, as demanded by the UN. 2005 June - Prominent
journalist Samir Qasir, a critic of Syrian influence, is killed by a car
bomb. Anti-Syrian alliance led
by Saad Hariri wins control of parliament following elections. New parliament
chooses Hariri ally, Fouad Siniora, as prime minister. George Hawi, anti-Syrian
former leader of Lebanese Communist Party, is killed by a car bomb. 2005 July - Lebanese PM
Siniora meets Syria's President Assad; both sides agree to rebuild relations. 2005 September - Four
pro-Syrian generals are charged over the assassination of Rafik Hariri. 2005 December - Prominent
anti-Syrian MP and journalist Gibran Tueni is killed
by a car bomb. 2006 February - Denmark's
embassy in Beirut is torched during a demonstration against cartoons in a
Danish paper satirising the Muslim Prophet
Muhammad. 2006 July - Israel
launches air and sea attacks on targets in Lebanon after Lebanon's militant
Hezbollah group seizes two Israeli soldiers. Civilian casualties are high and
the damage to civilian infrastructure wide-ranging. Thousands of people are
displaced. In August Israeli ground troops thrust into southern Lebanon. 2006 August - Truce
between Israel and Hezbollah comes into effect on 14 August after 34 days of
fighting and the deaths of around 1,000 Lebanese - mostly civilians - and 159
Israelis, mainly soldiers. A UN peacekeeping force, expected to consist of
15,000 foreign troops, begins to deploy along the southern border. 2006 September - Lebanese
government forces deploy along the Israeli border for the first time in
decades. Power struggles 2006 November - Ministers
from Hezbollah and the Amal movement resign shortly before the cabinet
approves draft UN plans for a tribunal to try suspects in the killing of the
former prime minister Hariri. Leading Christian
politician and government minister Pierre Gemayel is shot dead. 2006 December - Thousands
of opposition demonstrators in Beirut demand the resignation of the
government. 2007 January -
Hezbollah-led opposition steps up pressure on the government to resign by
calling general strike. 2007 March - Tent town
which sprang up in central Beirut as part of the opposition sit-in to demand
more say in government, remains in place 100 days after start of protest. 2007 May-September -
Siege of the Palestinian refugee camp Nahr al-Bared
following clashes between Islamist militants and the military. More than 300
people die and 40,000 residents flee before the army gains control of the
camp. 2007 May - UN Security
Council votes to set up a tribunal to try suspects in the assassination of
ex-premier Hariri. 2007 June - Anti-Syrian
MP Walid Eido is killed in a bomb attack in Beirut. 2007 September -
Anti-Syrian MP Antoine Ghanim is killed by a car bomb. Parliament adjourns the
session to elect a new president until 23 October, after a stay-away by the
opposition pro-Syrian bloc. Power vacuum 2007 November - President
Emile Lahoud steps down after parliament fails to elect his successor. Prime
Minister Fouad Siniora says his cabinet will assume powers of presidency. 2007 December - Car bomb
kills Gen Francois al-Hajj, who had been tipped to become army chief. 2008 January - Bomb blast
apparently aimed at a US diplomatic vehicle in Beirut kills four. 2008 May - At least 80
people are killed in clashes between Hezbollah and pro-government factions,
sparking fears of civil war. Parliament elects army
chief Michel Suleiman as president, ending six-month-long political deadlock.
Suleiman reappoints Fouad Siniora as prime minister, entrusting to him task
of forming new unity government. 2008 July - Political
leaders reach agreement on make-up of national unity government. Ties with Syria
established 2008 July - President
Suleiman meets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Paris. They agree to work
towards establishing full diplomatic relations between their countries. Israel frees five
Lebanese prisoners in exchange for the remains of two Israeli soldiers
captured by Hezbollah in July 2006. Hezbollah hails the swap as a
"victory for the resistance". 2008 October - Lebanon
establishes diplomatic relations with Syria for first time since both
countries gained independence in 1940s. 2009 March -
International court to try suspected killers of former Prime Minister Hariri
opens in Hague. Expected to ask Lebanon to hand over four pro-Syrian generals
held over February 2005 killing within weeks. 2009 April - Former
Syrian intelligence officer Mohammed Zuhair al-Siddiq arrested in connection
with killing of former PM Rafik Hariri. Four pro-Syrian Lebanese
generals held since 2005 over Hariri murder freed after UN court in Hague
rules that there is not enough evidence to convict them. 2009 May - US
Vice-President Joe Biden visits ahead of June parliamentary elections,
prompting accusations from Hezbollah that US is "meddling" in
Lebanese affairs. Lebanese officials say an army colonel has been arrested on
suspicion of spying for Israel. Unity government 2009 June - The
pro-Western March 14 alliance led by Saad Hariri wins 71 of 128 seats in
parliamentary elections while the rival March 8 alliance, led by Hezbollah,
secures 57. Saad Hariri is nominated as prime minister. 2009 July - The Lebanese
army says it broke up a cell of 10 al-Qaeda-linked Islamists whom it accused
of planning to attack troops and UN peacekeepers in the south. 2009 November - Saad
Hariri succeeds in forming government of national unity, five months after
his bloc won majority of seats in parliament. 2009 December - Lebanon's
cabinet endorsed Hezbollah's right to keep its arsenal of weapons. Prime Minister Saad
Hariri visits Damascus for talks with President Bashar Assad, describing the
talks as friendly, open and positive. 2010 April - US warns of
serious repercussions for Syria if reports that it supplied Hezbollah with
Scud missiles were true. PM Sa'ad Hariri earlier dismisses the accusations
against Syria. 2010 July - Lebanon's
most eminent Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, dies. Border tension 2010 August - Lebanese
and Israeli troops exchange fire along border; two Lebanese soldiers, a
senior Israeli officer and a journalist are killed. 2010 October - Amid signs
of heightened sectarian tension, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pays
controversial visit to Lebanon that culminates in rally held at Hezbollah
stronghold near Israeli border. Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah calls on Lebanese to boycott UN tribunal into 2005 killing of
former PM Rafik Hariri, saying the tribunal is in league with Israel. 2011 January - Government
collapses after ministers from Hezbollah and its political allies resign. UN prosecutor issues
sealed indictment for murder of Rafik Hariri. Najib Mikati is appointed
prime-minister designate and is asked to form a new government. 2011 June - After nearly
five months of tortuous wrangling and horse-trading, Mr
Mikati finally succeeds in forming a cabinet. The new cabinet is dominated by
Hezbollah and its allies, which are given 16 out of 30 seats. The UN's Special Tribunal
for Lebanon (STL) issues four arrest warrants over the murder of Rafik
Hariri. The accused are members of Hezbollah, which says it won't allow their
arrest. 2012 Summer - Syrian
conflict spills over into Lebanon's northern port of Tripoli in deadly
clashes between Sunni Muslims and Alawites. 2012 October - Security
chief Wissam al-Hassan is killed in a car bombing along with two other people
near the police headquarters in Beirut. Opposition blames the attack on
Syria, and protesters at the funeral try to storm government buildings and
demand the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Police fire warning shots and tear gas. |
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