By Eric Vandenbroeck
As I reported the latter part
of December 2015, ethnic groups in Myanmar are divided
on how they view Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD as not able or willing to move
the peace process forward. Going a step further Suu Kyi last week advised
the United States against using the term “Rohingya” to describe the persecuted
Muslim population that has lived in Myanmar for generations (reported on by me here). Her
government, like the previous military-led one, will not call the Rohingya
people by that name because it does not recognize them as citizens, said her
spokesman, U Kyaw Zay Ya.
Already last month, after an interview with BBC’s veteran journalist Mishal
Husain for the Today programme, Suu Kyi was
reportedly heard to say angrily, “No-one
told me I was going to be interviewed by a Muslim.”
This time around the US embassy faced criticism from Myanmar's nationalists
since it issued a statement of condolence after an April 19 maritime accident
in which as many as 40 Rohingya drowned. The victims were traveling to a market
and a hospital from a camp for internally displaced people in western Rakhine
state. The embassy's statement linked the tragedy to restrictions on basic
services in the state, which it said “can
lead to communities unnecessarily risking their lives in an attempt to improve
the quality of life.”
The refugees fleeing Myanmar, from the Muslim Rohingya ethnic minority,
have been persecuted for decades. They have been
evicted from their homes and kicked off their land, and attacked by the
military and by Buddhist extremists in Rakhine, the western coastal state where
they live. Their voting rights were effectively revoked in February.
They could qualify for second-class citizenship by proving that their
families had been living in Burma since 1948, the year of independence, or be
placed in camps and face deportation.
Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine state
has been ‘cleansed’
of Muslims – or more specifically the Rohingya. Before the 2012
violence there were approximately 20,000 Rohingya living around Sittwe, now nearly all traces of Rohingya have been erased
– save for some burnt out Mosques and the 4000 strong hidden away ghetto
of Aung Mingalar (which people are unable to
freely leave, and have to go under police guard just to travel to the market).
Some 125,000 Rohingya thus remain displaced and face severe travel
restrictions.
The previous military-linked government of former junta general Thein
Sein referred to the group as Bengalis, implying they were illegal immigrants
from Bangladesh, though many have lived in Myanmar for generations. Whereby,
showing that it is possible, the outgoing Burmese government recently granted citizenship
to tens of thousands of ethnic Chinese living in northern Shan State’s Tarmoenye sub-township. Called Mong Wong or Mone Wun, their militia is estimated to number around 100
soldiers in Shan State and has helped the Burma Army with reconnaissance and
fighting against other ethnic armed groups in Kutkai
Township and elsewhere in northern Shan State.
On 30 March 2015 then, Htin Kyaw, a confidante
of Aung San Suu Kyi, was sworn in as Myanmar’s president, with Suu Kyi
appointed as foreign
minister and has said the new president will effectively answer to her.
The NLD took 364 seats in both houses, whilst the military-backed Union
Solidarity Development Party (USDP) took just 40. However, 25% of total seats
were already reserved for unelected military officials:
Because the NLD is constitutionally unable to fully control the
military, it will be impeded by Myanmar's core challenge: controlling the
geographically fractured and ethnically diverse border areas. See also here and here.
In the medium to long-term, the government must address Myanmar’s
complex economic and social challenges. For many years, the country has been
beset by the acute development problems of poverty, malnourishment, high infant
mortality rates, fragile education and healthcare systems, and a chronic lack
of modern infrastructure. Maintaining the current rate of economic growth will
be a key objective of the new parliament, with the economy growing at 8.5% in
2015 as a result of recent reforms and the influx of Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI). Despite this, poverty and unemployment are endemic problems which must
be tackled. Huge swathes of the country rely on agriculture for a large
proportion of economic production, whilst faster development is held back by
unequal electricity access, poor transport networks and an unskilled workforce.
State corruption must also be combated, with Myanmar ranked 147th out of 158
countries in Transparency International’s 2015 corruption index.
But the biggest challenge remains the resolution of long-standing ethnic
tensions and conflict. Many states remain semi-war-zones, prone to ethnic
conflict between the security forces and local armed groups. Overall, minority
groups comprise up to 40% of Myanmar’s population of 52 million people, and
most feel some degree of grievance or disadvantage. Outgoing President Thein
Sein signed a national ceasefire agreement with 8 armed groups last October;
however fighting continues on an almost daily basis in Kachin and Shan states.
Among those that did sign the ceasefire agreement was the Karen National Union
(KNU), one of Myanmar’s oldest revolutionary groups. However, the influential
and powerful Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and United Wa
State Army (UWSA) refused to sign the accord.
The UN estimates that in the past 4 years, 100,000 people have been
internally displaced, whilst thousands more have fled across the borders into
neighboring Thailand, Laos and China. Many groups have a distinct lack of trust
towards the military, so the new government represents an opportunity for
progress. Ending these multiple conflicts could prove the key to enabling
future economic prosperity across the country; therefore the new government has
a huge incentive to reach out and push forward a renewed dialogue. It can also
be argued that considering most of the conflict-torn regions voted heavily in favour of the NLD in November’s election, the party has a
responsibility to increase engagement and further integrate disenfranchised
groups into the political process.
Ending Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts, tacking anti-Muslim sentiment and
improving the treatment of the Rohingya population will be viewed as an
essential measure of the country’s progress in the eyes of the international
community. However despite renewed hopes, these problems will remain difficult
to resolve, as years of military rule have resulted in a legacy of social
divisions and inter-communal distrust which will take years, if not decades to
overcome.
In the wider geopolitical context, Myanmar also faces the strategic
challenge of forging its place in the world as a democratic state. China has
long been Myanmar’s closest ally, turning a blind eye to the human rights
abuses of the ruling military junta in return for access to natural resources
and favorable business contracts, such as the Myitsone
Dam Project. In stark contrast, the US and many EU states have championed the
pro-democracy cause.
Yet as a
senior western diplomat recently said: This is one of the most corrupt
countries in the world-Bad things happen here every day. You will see problems
everywhere.
No matter how EU, the United States, and Myanmar choose to proceed,
continued reform will be messy.
According to Peter Popham author of "The Lady and the Generals:
Aung San Suu Kyi and Burma's Struggle for Freedom"(2016) Suu Kyi seems to have
lost interest in human rights.
But the victory of Suu Kyi’s NLD in the November elections has also brought
a degree of hope. Yet if that hope is to be realized, the new government must
take at least three important steps.
First, newly appointed President Htin Kyaw and
State Counselor Suu Kyi should immediately authorize unfettered humanitarian
access for the United Nations and international aid groups to Kachin and
northern Shan states. Upon gaining access, aid agencies should redouble their
support for ethnic Kachin and Shan-led aid organizations that have operated in
the conflict zones for the past five years.
Second, if the NLD government is going to break with the previous
regimes’ legacies of violence, it must make good on the promise to prioritize
Burma’s peace process. Not all of Burma’s armed ethnic groups were invited to
sign a cease-fire agreement orchestrated by President Thein Sein’s
administration. A mere seven groups did so in October 2015 as attacks by the
Burmese army continued. Absent were several of Myanmar’s largest armed groups,
including the KIA. Without all relevant actors at the table, peace will remain
elusive.
Finally, the NLD government must build trust with ethnic populations and
nonstate ethnic armies. It needs to publicly acknowledge the scale of abuses by
Burmese soldiers against civilians, the depth of discrimination against ethnic
nationalities and the continued impunity. If left unchecked, impunity for grave
abuses in Burma’s ethnic states will only stifle the country’s development.
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