Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili declared emergency rule after six days of protests in Tbilisi. On Nov. 2, approximately 100,000 people -- around the same number of people who demonstrated during the 2003 Rose Revolution -- marched outside parliament to ask for early elections. Their demonstration slogan was "Georgia without Saakashvili." The protests continued through the weekend with rallies nearly 50,000 people strong. But the rallies turned violent Wednesday when some protesters attacked riot police, who then dispersed the crowds with tear gas and water cannons.
Georgia is once again on the edge of a change in government. This time it's due to dissatisfaction with Saakashvili, who came to power in the Rose Revolution, a regime change that greatly vexed Moscow. But Saakashvili's popularity is nearing a single-digit rating and the dozen opposition groups lined up against him have organized into one united force. Just as the Rose Revolution ousted an anti-Russian, President Edward Shevardnadze, in favor of the even more anti-Russian Saakashvili, the new opposition is even more anti-Russian than Saakashvili.But it's not important who in particular will be in power in Georgia, for any government will be anti-Russian. What is important is that Georgia is destabilized. As Russia has surged back onto the international scene and started to pull its periphery states back into its sphere of influence, Georgia has stood its ground against its former ruler. Now Moscow sees the chance to effect a change in Georgia's behavior.
There is no evidence that the current chaos in Georgia was caused by Russian agents, though Saakashvili on Wednesday did accuse the opposition of being in league with Moscow. The opposition has countered with the same accusation against Saakashvili.What we do know is that Georgia has destabilized enough for Russia to be able to take advantage of the situation. Georgia's instability as suggested in our Sept.26 preview, creates opportunities for Russia to increase its influence. Moscow has more levers to deal with Georgia than with nearly any other state: close ties to Georgia's volatile secessionist regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia; troops stationed along the Georgian border in Russia and Armenia; and many economic ties. Now Georgia itself has shattered its former united front against Russia, which could allow Moscow's influence to seep into the cracks and solidify.
P.S. Following six days of protests and months of political turmoil, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said Nov. 8 that elections will be held nearly nine months early, on Jan. 5, 2008. Saakashvili said he is giving the opposition "the chance to become the people's choice," and in a clear reference to Russian meddling, he said the violence erupting between protesters and riot police is because of a "conspiracy against Georgian democracy." Since Saakashvili's Nov. 7 declaration of a state of emergency in the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, the city has been quiet for the most part. Small protests are still popping up all over Tbilisi, but Interior Ministry forces, riot police and city police have blanketed the city. With its TV stations and almost all its radio stations forced off the air, the opposition has turned to leaflets. There are dozens of illegal printing stations set up around the city. Politically, Saakashvili already has attempted to break up the united opposition, summoning some more moderate factions to meetings Nov. 8.
But what is more interesting is how the international community is responding. The Russian media machine is in full swing, publicizing the instability in Georgia and pushing for the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe to stop the violence and human rights violations. NATO -- which Georgia has heavily pushed for membership -- already has said publicly that the imposition of emergency rule, closure of media outlets and heavy violence does not fit with NATO members' values. Members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe already have announced that they will travel to Tbilisi on Nov. 9 to try to initiate talks between Saakashvili's government and the opposition factions, though neither the government nor the opposition has agreed to take part in the negotiations. What is clear thus far is that Russia is benefiting from Georgia's destabilization and is flaunting that fact in front of the West. Moscow also has resumed its tit for tat with Tbilisi, expelling Georgian diplomats after Georgia announced that certain Russian diplomats were going to be booted. But now that Saakashvili has called early elections, Russia has even more opportunity to stir up trouble and push Moscow's influence further into Georgia. Saakashvili and the opposition already have made it clear that the primary focus of all the political factions will be Russia -- a point of which Moscow is prepared to take advantage.