It
is known that Putin likes to reestablish the former Russian
sphere of influence whereby E.Ukraine, after having
been occupied by the Ottomans, was next taken by Catherine the Great who
titled it Novorossiya.
We also can see a development from the Orange revolution
to the
situation now. Given its inability to prevent
the initial ouster of Yanukovych,
Russia is probably where it wants to be,
as also
mentioned here.
The
last two days, in a carefully co-ordinated action,
groups of men, some armed, took over government buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and
Trans-Dniester declared the “independence” of eastern Ukrainian republics, demanded
referendums and called for Russian assistance. They aped the Maidan protesters in Kiev with barricades made of car tyres and the distribution of food. The theatrics were said
to be directed from Moscow with money from ousted Ukrainian prime
minister Yanukovych and his son, who still
control some local mayors in the Donetsk region.
Ukraine’s
security service, the
SBU on its website and in a youtube, reported two days ago that it had caught a
Russian citizen who was registered at the address of Russian military
intelligence headquarters. The 29-year-old man, identified by the SBU as Roman Bannykh, had organized and coordinated Russian citizens and
Ukrainians into cells that would plan and encourage separatist activities,
including mass protests and the seizure of government buildings, the SBU said.
Nationalist
Russian websites posted calls to head to eastern Ukrainian cities for weekly
rallies. Ukrainian officials say they turn back hundreds of suspicious Russian
citizens at the border every day.
At
the rallies, a group of several dozen young men led crowds to government
buildings, shoving aside listless police and raising Russian flags—scenes that
were quickly broadcast in Russia.
The
meetings were a mix of aggressive young men chanting "Russia!
Russia!" and older men and women who stood back as the men smashed their
way into buildings.
Pro-Russian
activists on Sunday seized the regional council buildings in Kharkiv and Donetsk, as well as the security-service
building in Luhansk.
Pro-Russian
activists on the self-proclaimed Donetsk council say they are in touch with Yevgeny Fyodorov, a lawmaker from
Vladimir Putin's United Russia party, and Alexander
Dugin (whom I reported on in detail) who
promotes the creation of a Eurasian empire under Moscow's rule to counter the
West.
Experts
say Moscow has been infiltrating its neighbors ever more deeply, building its
influence amongst security forces, government officials and politicians. That,
some say, allows it to stir up instability in locations like eastern Ukraine
and create both confusion and potential preconditions to invade.
In
addition, NATO says tens of thousands of Russian troops are massed on the
border with Ukraine for a potential invasion, yet Western states still lack a
strategy to stop Moscow from intervening in its former Soviet neighbours.
With
military action to protect non-NATO states effectively ruled out, current and
former officials say sanctions and isolation provide the best - and perhaps
only - way to pressure Moscow. Ramping up the pressure on the rich and powerful
around President Vladimir Putin, they say, might in time push him towards a
much more conciliatory approach.
But
that, they concede, could prove a long game, and some both in and outside
government worry that a more isolated Russia may simply become both more
nationalist and self-sufficient. Putting Putin under more pressure, they worry,
may give him even more incentive to take a populist, more aggressive approach.
Ultimately,
Moscow's commitment to rebuild the former USSR as its own unilateral sphere of
influence may outstrip the determination of Washington and its European allies
to stop it.
Many
Ukrainian observers fear that Russia will use May 9th, Victory
Day, to stage more provocations. Russia’s propaganda is based on second world war rhetoric, portraying the government in Kiev
as western Ukrainian “fascists” attacking Russian-speakers in the east and the
south.
Going
forward
So
far Moscow is demonstrating to Kiev and the West that it can destabilize its
western neighbor through non-military means.
In
addition, however, Russian posturing is motivated by one of two things. Either
Putin seeks to annex the eastern parts of Ukraine and is contriving the
necessary pretense to do so, or he is engaging in brinkmanship to secure a
better political deal for Ukraine’s eastern regions (likely in the form of
greater devolution of powers), and to prove once more that Russia is too
important on the international stage for the West to risk isolating.
Yet
even if Putin is going the route of calculated brinkmanship, it’s likely that
events will quickly spin out of control and precipitate the first scenario:
Russia’s annexation of eastern Ukraine. Or even worse, a
civil war. The government in Kiev has a rotted-out foundation, both
economically and politically, and it lacks the legitimacy required to use
violence against its subjects in the east – no matter how treasonous their
actions may be. Without decisive action from Kiev, the protest movement in the
east will continue to spread.
Given
the high levels of local support for Moscow, it would take Russia publicly
disavowing its commitment to the Russian-speaking people of eastern Ukraine for
the spiral of instability to grind to a halt. This is not going to happen.
Thus, the question becomes: which outside actor is best equipped to bring the
situation under control.
The
answer is Russia, and this a fact that is surely not lost on President Putin.
According
to satellite pictures and military intelligence, some 50,000 Russian troops are
massed along the border with Ukraine. The forces represent a substantial
fraction of Russia’s 270,000-strong army, and they cannot indefinitely maintain
the high state of readiness they have been in since early March, not least
because it is now the time of year when conscripts at the end of their term have
to be sent home, and new ones trained. Ukraine’s armed forces are, by
comparison, small, ill-equipped and out of position.
However,
Russian military planners are almost certainly advising Vladimir Putin that,
although an incursion with a strictly limited objective against weak defences might easily be achieved, occupying a large tract
of land against the wishes of most of the people who live there is far harder.
Getting bogged down and exposed to attacks by Ukrainian irregular forces would
be all too likely. Stationing lots of troops in Ukraine indefinitely would have
ramifications elsewhere, stretching forces in volatile regions such as the
north Caucasus and Central Asia. On top of this, Mr
Putin cannot be entirely confident about how his forces would perform. Their
post-Georgia modernisation is a work in progress,
with poor command and control and logistics hampered by incompatible equipment.