The remarkable fact
about Austro-Serbian relations in the months before the Sarajevo assassination
is that they were reasonably good. All tensions had subsided with the ending of
the October 1913 crisis over Albania. The murders in
Sarajevo, of course, immediately revived and dramatized the old antagonism.
Yet the assassination of Franz Ferdinand succeeded only because of the
self-obsession and incompetence of Bosnia-Herzegovina's Landeschef
Oskar Potiorek. The story of 28 June 1914 is as much
about the personal aspirations of this Austrian General as it is about an
amateurish conspiracy against Franz Ferdinand. However, a dead Archduke now
became a useful tool in Vienna's pursuit of pocket imperialism in the Balkans,
expressed by Austria-Hungary's resolve to place Serbia in the dock. This despite the fact that the Ballhausplatz
had no proof of the Serbian Government's complicity in the Sarajevo
assassination and that its own investigator Friedrich von Wiesner had actually
ruled out such complicity.
With the many
publications during 2014, a new discussion has ensued about who and what
started the First World War of which the consequences are very much present
today. Having embarked on a detailed investigation, we now present a ten-part
investigation with new answers that help us
understand why so many historians got it wrong.
Many of the
tendentious evaluations that have associated official or semi-official Serbia
with the Sarajevo assassination have then moved seamlessly on to the outbreak
of the war, equally tendentiously presenting it as an inevitable consequence of
the murders. To better understand this we first have
to understand Serbia in the Bosnian annexation
crisis.
At no point was
Serbia threatening, or in a position to threaten, the integrity of the Habsburg
Empire. Vienna's Balkan imperialism, by contrast, was relentlessly
stifling Serbia's at every turn.
Mentioned in our
original analyses of how the First War started,
the Matscheko Memorandum, composed before the
assassination of Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo, was adapted and presented to the German
Kaiser on 5 July which resulted in the issuing of the infamous blank check
assurance.
But to understand why
the Matscheko memorandum is so important one needs to
take a closer look at two weeks before Franz Ferdinand was murdered
including when the latter and Kaiser Wilhelm II met at Konopischt
where he and Franz Ferdinand discussed the possibility of a future war.
Although the
memorandum did not mention territorial conquest, its goals carried serious
implications, because they involved reversing
dominant trends in the Balkan peninsula.
Seldom had a little
war looked more enticing: Serbia would basically disappear, Romania, Bulgaria,
and Albania would all be secured, and Russia would be dislodged from the
region. Provided that Germany could ward Russia off, this war in the Balkans
could be a game-changer for the long-suffering Habsburg Empire. The strategy was risky but quite
irresistible.
The chief negotiator
Count Hoyos admitted in his 1922 memoir, "that the murder of Archduke
Franz Ferdinand had been prepared or intended by authorities in Belgrade or
Petersburg." Presumably, in July 1914 Hoyos must also have conveyed this
belief to his colleagues and his boss Berchtold. In a sense, therefore, the
Austrian investigation into archduke's assassination Friedrich von Wiesner had
been sent on a wild-goose chase. To establish Sarajevo assassination would have
been nice to have, but ultimately this did not matter given that the decision for war had already been taken.
Many of the
tendentious evaluations that have associated official or semi-official Serbia
with the Sarajevo assassination have then moved seamlessly on to the outbreak
of the war, equally tendentiously presenting it as an inevitable consequence of
the murders. Yet those historians who have argued in this manner have wrongly
fused the question of who bore responsibility for the assassination with a
second, separate question of what subsequently impelled the Habsburg
decision-makers to react as they did. Certainly,
Vienna was not weighing up any Black Hand linkage - if for no other reason
than that no one was claiming that this organization was involved; nor indeed
was such a claim made until long after the end of the Empire, becoming a theme
only in 1923.
Early on Richard C.
Hall perceptively pointed out that, by themselves, the killings of Archduke
Franz Ferdinand and his wife in Sarajevo had "caused nothing" - that
what brought the war about was "the use made of this event", initially
by Austria-Hungary "The key event", according to Hall, was the delivery of the Austro- Hungarian note to
Serbia on 23 July.
Misrepresented by a number of historians as we will analyze in this upcoming
link the Serbian reply to the Austro- Hungarian ultimatum is one of the more
famous documents of modern European history. Whereby the Austro-Hungarian
river monitors from the Danube flotilla, the bulk of which had been
concentrated at Zemun, started bombarding Belgrade.
The First World War, initially resembling a "Third Balkan War", had begun.
Conclusion: Historians by now have also seen that it was not World
War II but World War I was the decisive war of the
twentieth century in transforming the
global map and creating violent mid-century ideologies.
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