Index

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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 

A

Afghanistan

Africa / Congo

Arab World - Arab Spring

Archeology

Armenia

Artificial Intelligence – Cybersecurity - Cryptocurrency

Asia and Cold War

Asia’s WWII

Australia

 

B

Brazil

Buddhism

 

C

Celts

China

China - Movie Industry

China - Taiwan - Hong Kong

China / US - South-East Asia

China - Oceanic Powers

China Xi Jinping

Chinese Hegemony

Climate Change

Cold War

Colonianism

 

D

Dalai Lama

 

E

East Asia

Economy, see World - World Economy

Egypt

Empires

Enlightenment

EU - Europe

Europe

Extremism

 

F

Fascism, see Second World War

First World War, see also WWI

 

G

 

Gaza

Globalization

Global Jihad

Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty

 

H

Haiti

Hamas

Hawaii

Hitler, see Second World War

Human Origins - Humanity

Houthis

 

I

 

Illiberal Democracy

India

International Relations

International Systems

Iran

Iranian-Palestinian

Iraq

Islam

Israel And Hamas

Israel In Gaza

Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem

 

J

 

Japan

 

K

Kurds

 

L

 

Latinoamerica, see also South America

 

 

M

 

Middle East

Moscow To China

Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis

 

N

Napoleon

NATO

North Korea

Nuclear Peril

 

O

Oman

 

P

 

Pacific War

Pakistan

Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem

Political Qigong

Psychology - Psychiatry

Putin

 

Q

 

Qatar

 

R

Russia - Central Asia

Russia - Putin

Russia - Tsar

 

S

 

Second World War, see also WWII

Slavery North America

South America

South Asia

Spy Agencies - Secret Intelligence Services

Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen

 

T

Taiwan

Taiwan Conundrum

Thailand

Turkey

Turkey In Context

 

U

UAE

Ukraine

United Kingdom

United Nations, UN

United States

 

V

 

Venezuela

Venice

 

W

 

Warsaw Pact

World - World Economy - History - Politics

WWI, see also First World War

WWII, see also Second World War

 

Z

Zionism

 

A

 

Afghanistan

Africa / Congo

Arab World - Arab Spring

Archeology

Armenia

Artificial Intelligence

Asia and Cold War

Asia’s WWII

Australia

 

 

Afghanistan Still Threatens The Region And Beyond.

 

Why Pressure Is The Best Way.

 

The Forces That Could Threaten The Taliban’s Control.

 

What can be said about US involvement and the current situation in Afghanistan

 

What next with Afghanistan

 

Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan

 

 

The SA Election for Worse and for Better.

 

A Sort Of 'Out Of Africa’.

 

The Youthful Continent.

 

Africa’s Ukraine Dilemma.

 

From Past To Next Fifty Years.

 

Deep-Rooted Factors. (Part 3)

 

Trade, Colonialism And Uneven Development. (Part 2)

 

The New Out Of Africa Theory. (Part 1)

 

Belgium’s Africa Museum Had a Racist Image. Can It Change That?

 

Head of UN, Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag Hammarskjöld

 

Case Study:

The French Rwanda File:

 

South Africa and AFRICOM

 

The Hamitic theory of race and the role it played in the Rwandan Genocide:

 

Case Study P.1:

The Creation of Belgium

 

Case Study P.2:

The Start of Belgian Empirialism: When Texas was to be a Belgian Colony

 

History of the former Belgian Congo

P.1: Egypt in Central Africa

 

History of Central Africa

P.2: King Leopold's Media

 

our earlier comment about Blood Diamonds

 

 

The Red Sea.

 

Saudi Arabia Is On The Way To Becoming The Next Egypt.

 

Will Saudi Arabia Get The Bomb?

 

The Coming Arab Backlash.

 

The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World.

 

Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.

 

Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

 

How To Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.

 

What Needs To Happen Next.

 

The Making Of The Middle East.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part 2.

 

The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.

 

Enter: Arab Spring 2011

 

Archeology

 

Göbekli Tepe revisited part three

 

Göbekli Tepe revisited part two

 

The world’s earliest cities and what it means for today

 

Ancient Globalization

 

In the Beginning

 

Genes or Behavior?

 

The Archeology of Worldwide War and Peace

 

They Built the First Temples?

 

The Earliest States

Truth In History: Inventing Archeology

 

Case Study:

Archeology of the Middle East Today

 

Nationalism: Ancient Egypt, Judea, Armenia, Japan?

‘King Arthur’

 

Click to enter:

 

Fringe Archeology Update

 

'Archeological Fantasies' continue:

 

The Mother of all Theocratic States: Lemuria

 

September 2004, Cult Archeology: Civilization One Book (excerpt)

 

Neo Paganism

 

From Mircea Eliade to Carlos Castaneda

 

The Truth About Carlos Castaneda

 

The Myth of the Noble Savage

 

Reader Comment: The Myth of the Noble Savage

 

Celts and Druids Speaking

 

From N. Pennick to Celtic/Northern Literature

 

The Temple of a Nation, Stonehenge

 

And Who Owns Ancient Remains?

 

Neo-Shamanists and Pagans Today

 

Why We Never Found Atlantis

 

The Atlantis Syndrome P.1

 

The Atlantis Syndrome P.2

 

The Atlantis Syndrome P.3

 

Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.1

 

Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.2: Cocaine

 

Gateway to Atlantis P.3: Seven Cities, El Dorado

 

Gateway to Atlantis P.4: Urheimat der Arier

 

Cuba's Atlantis

 

Armenia

 

Why, and what happened

 

Major Case Study:

So what really happened in Armenia

 

(Updated version)

Case Study:

Armenian Genocide

 

 

Crypto in China and Beyond.

 

AI Large Language Models.

 

The New Empires Of The Internet.

 

Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried Case.

 

Bydance And TikTok.

 

The Test.

 

The New Threat.

 

Generative Artificial Intelligence.

 

How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform The Military.

 

The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part Two.

 

The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.

 

There Is No Time To Waste.

 

Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.

 

An Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.

 

The Illusion Of China’s AI Prowess.

 

The Battle For Brains.

 

But There Is A Solution.

 

Blockchain Analysis.

 

Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes Part Four.

 

Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes Part Three.

 

Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes Part Two.

 

Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.

 

Tackling The 2023 Problem Of Cybersecurity.

 

Weaponized Artificial Intelligence.

 

The logic of human nature and causal networks

 

Dismantling the myths of AI Part Two

 

Dismantling the myths of AI Part One 

 

The question about current medical efficiency and that of digital authoritarianism versus liberal democracies

 

 

Introduction

 

P.2 The Malay Theatre

 

P.3 The Vietnam Theatre

 

P.4 The Korean Theatre

 

P.5 Indonesia and China Burning

 

P.6 1945-1950

 

P.7 Vietnam War and World Decolonization.

Was the Cold War inevitable?

 

…investigae in the following part

 

Introduction: Gorbachev's Last Days

 

Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating the Beginning of the Cold War P.1.

 

Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating the Beginning of the Cold War P.2

 

Investigating the End of the Cold War P.1

 

Investigating the End of the Cold War P.2

Investigating the End of the Cold War P.3

 

 

Major Case Study:

From hot to Cold War: Asia's WWII

 

 

Genocide In Australia.

 

B

Brazil

Buddhism

 

 

Bolsonaro Redux.

 

Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.

 

The Current Situation.

 

Far-Right Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.

 

Why the political climate in Brazil matters to the rest of the world

 

 

 

Discussion, Buddhism

 

A new understanding of Buddhist's past and at least one possible future

 

C

Celts

China

China - Movie Industry

China - Taiwan - Hong Kong

China / US - South-East Asia

China - Oceanic Powers

China Xi Jinping

Chinese Hegemony

Climate Change

Cold War

Colonianism

 

Celts

 

Major Case Study:

The less-known aspects of early Irish and Scottish Nationalism

 

Recherche sur ce qui ne va pas avec les Celtes

 

 

Foreign Policy for the World.

 

Will America and China Heed the Warnings.

 

The China Sea Syndrome.

 

Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, not Deter, Chinese.

 

When Israel Was in China.

 

The Cold War Between China, Europe, and the United States.

 

China's Quest to Innovate.

 

Crypto in China and Beyond.

 

Lai Ching-te’s Precarious Balancing Act.

 

The World's Second Most Populous Country.

 

US-China Relations.

 

The Real Motives For China’s Nuclear Expansion.

 

Importance Of The Middle Powers.

 

Overview Of Chinese Spy Activities.

 

A Problem With China's Economy.

 

China Today And Tomorrow.

 

Competition With China To Be Won.

 

Misconceptions About China.

 

China’s Economic Collision Course.

 

Cold War China Xi Jinping And The United States.

 

President Xi's Thought.

 

From Moscow To China.

 

But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.

 

Chinese Spy Operations.

 

But Where Is This Going?

 

Will Xi’s Military Modernization Pay Off?

 

Beijing Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of Mandarin.

 

More Likely To React To External Threats.

 

The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.

 

Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.

 

Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.

 

The End Of China’s Economic Miracle.

 

A Form Of Preparation For War.

 

The Global South.

 

Living On The Edge.

 

Blinded By The Fight.

 

How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.

 

U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.

 

China’s Affinity With Russia Is Over.

 

The Virtue Of Low Expectations.

 

China Is Ready For A World Of Disorder.

 

What Does The West Know About Xi’s China?

 

Why China Is Rewriting The Law Of The Sea.

 

The Technology Trap.

 

The U.S.-Chinese Economic Relationship.

 

Lifelines And Chokepoints.

 

The Consequences Of China’s Peace Deal.

 

The Consequences Of China's Demographic Decline.

 

How To Spy On China.

 

The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.

 

The Question Of Chinese Military Support For Russia.

 

Russia And China Behind The Scenes.

 

The New Age Of Great-Power Competition.

 

Spy Ballons TikTok And Chinse Intelligence.

 

Xi Jinping Preparing China For War.

 

China Will Lead The Next Technological Revolution.

 

Sweeping Belt And Road Initiative.

 

Solidify Global Divisions For The Coming Decades.

 

China Is Practicing How to Sever Taiwan’s Internet.

 

Possibility That Chinese Spy Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.

 

Why Are Meteorologists Tracking The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?

 

China’s Indo-Pacific Folly.

 

On The Leaks Of A War With China Plus A Recension In Europe.

 

What The Cities Of The Future Will Look Like.

 

The Looming Taiwan Crisis.

 

Detention Camps.

 

The Story of Why The Chinese Can Travel Again.

 

What Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.

 

Can China Take Taiwan?

 

Why It Is Of Importance.

 

The Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.

 

The Meaning Of China’s Dangerous Decline.

 

Why Saudis Don’t Want To Pivot To China.

 

The Nowhere Road With An Answer To It.

 

It Took Just Seven Words That NBA-China’s Viewership Approaching Pre-Banned Levels.

 

How China Manipulates The Media.

 

We Address Why There Is No Inevitability In China's Decline To India's Rise.

 

China's Economy.

 

Will Xi Learn From History?

 

What Is Achievable In East Asia?

 

China The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.

 

Why XI Might Prefer Détente. 

 

What To Expect From Xi's Third Term.

 

What To Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.

 

China’s Past And Xi’s Future.

 

Reactions To China's Spy Operations. Part 5

 

The Circumstances That Allow Chinese Spy Operations To Thrive. Part 4

 

The Way To The White House. Part 3

 

The Chinese Police Service Stations. Part 2

 

Chinese Spies Part One. Part 1

 

How To Build A Better Order.

 

We Analyze The Reasons Why.

 

Can A War Over Taiwan Still Be Avoided?

 

The Revelations Of Document Number Nine.

 

Large And In Charge

 

The World According To Xi. 

 

China's COVID-19 Politics To The Test.

 

China's Growth In Peril.

 

China's Global Security Initiative.  

 

The Forbidden History

 

The Future War Between China And The US.

 

Xi Jinping And  Present-Day China.

 

Point Of No Return.

 

The United States Does Not Need To Beat China.

 

Whereby The Truth About Taiwan Is.

 

China Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.

 

Nancy Pelosi’s Visit To Taiwan.

 

What Is Happening Here?

 

Xi Unleased.

 

Whose China Sea Is It?

 

Facing A Window Of Vulnerability Over Taiwan.

 

China Could Invade Taiwan.

 

China’s Motivations.

 

Geopolitical Consequences Of Taiwan War.

 

Why Should Taiwan Be Seen As A Part Of China?

 

What the situation looks like going forward

 

China's pursuit of greatness part two and conclusion

 

China's pursuit of greatness

 

China the Pandemic and Sovereignty

 

 

The Actual History Behind The Seven Years In Tibet With Brad Pitt.

 

How The Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Four.

 

How The Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Three.

 

How The Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Two.

 

How The Movie Industry Became Chineses Diplomacy.

 

 

The Interconnected Fates Of The World’s Democracies.

 

The Taiwan Conundrum.

 

Taiwan Today.

 

Once More The Question Of Taiwan.

 

The Trouble With The South China Sea.

 

Taiwan Is An Important Partner.

 

Xi Jinping's Hawkish Forces He Can’t Control.

 

How To Avoid Catastrophe.

 

Don’t Panic About Taiwan.

 

The Looming Taiwan Crisis.

 

What Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.

 

Can China Take Taiwan?

 

Major Case Study:

The lead up to present-day China and the making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis

 

After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?

 

Taiwan going forward

 

What the real future of Hong Kong might look like

 

Mapping the new reality of Hong Kong

 

How China will handle its future development

 

Understanding modern China

 

From Vancouver to Auckland and Hong Kong understanding the new Chinese nationalism

 

Will China now crush the protests in Hong Kong?

 

What does it all mean

 

Increased friction in the South China Sea and why

 

Outlook for the world China, US, Europe, N.Korea,Venezuela, and the way forward with Iran

 

Today’s legacy of the Tiananmen crisis

 

Unveiling China’s big science

 

Is China planning to take Taiwan by force?

 

Thus has China’s new Silk Belt and Road failed? Updated 15 Feb. 2019

 

China’s ticking time-bomb. Updated 4 Jan. 2019

 

China’s New Nationalism

 

China has “no historic rights” in South China Sea: Continue

 

From Chinese Yuan adjustment to the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn

 

.. the Huns to their Mongol related origin in what is now China Continue ...

 

 

The Philippines In The South China Sea.

 

How concerned should we be when Chinese growth runs out?

 

The importance of South and East Asia

 

Which way will the West turn? Left or right?

 

Understanding the 100 years of the current regime in China Part Two

 

Understanding the 100 years of the current regime in China

 

China’s multifaceted great power projection

 

The rivalry between America and China in South-East Asia

 

Where will the China/US competition lead the world? 

 

Major Case Study: 

Investigating the India-China standoff Part Three

 

Major Case Study: 

Investigating the India-China standoff Part Two

 

Major Case Study:

Investigating the India-China standoff Part One

 

South-East Asia between China and the US

 

Major Case Study:

Developmental forces in East and West as drivers of psychological change

 

Major Case Study:

The re-invention of Chinese History, Nation, Language, and Territory Part Three

 

Major Case Study:

The re-invention of Chinese History, Nation, Language, and Territory

 

Major Case Study:

The secrets of China’s new maps unveiled

 

Will a coming conflict make the military disasters of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq pale in comparison?

 

China’s new claim about the border with Bhutan

 

China’s larger geostrategic game

 

The fall out from the current crises

 

Are the U.S. and China headed for a Cold War?

 

The 21st Century Arms Race

 

From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary options? Plus update 18 January.

 

Will the Standoff Lead to a Second India-China War? With Update 29 Aug. 2017

 

South China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S. allies

 

Uighur terrorist attack in China, a shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to top it off, a coup in Thailand

 

..China considers its territorial waters

 

..We must go to war with Japan…History as a political weapon:

 

China Today

 

The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror

 

 

The East Asian World Order

 

The concept of Han Chinese

 

China's New Nationalism

 

The Early Chinese Empires

 

The true voyages of Zheng He

 

There now might be increased diplomatic pressure on Beijing to reduce its presence in the South China Sea

 

Globalization and Empire:

Introduction

 

P.1 Indian Ocean's Business as Usual

 

P.2 Indian Ocean From Business to Power Broker

 

Oceanic Powers, US/China: Conclusion

 

Case Study

Chinese Religion: Daoism:

Historical Overview of Daoism

 

Origin of Daoism

 

Daoist secrets of ritualized alchemy to internal Neidan meditative alchemy

 

Tantric ‘internal’ alchemy P.1

 

Tantric practice in China P.2

 

The Politics of Qigong:

The Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, and Falung Gong

 

From Red Turban to Ming Tax Collecting

 

The Island of Seven Cities:

Research Report:

China Beyond Zheng Hi

 

From Persia to China

 

Research Report P.4:

China's Reinvented Historic Legacy

 

Case Study:

When China Woke Up to the World

 

Chinese and other Empires of the World

 

What Next with China? P.1.

 

What Next with China P.2.

 

 

China Xi Jinping And The United States.

 

 

But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.

 

 

Their Failure To Act Fast Enough On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.

 

Preparing For A Future Of Extreme Weather.

 

Measure The Harm Of Climate Change.

 

The search for Nextpolis

 

Apocalypse Never:

 

Why Planet earth is shutting down

 

A history of the end of the world 

 

From climate change denialism to the Brazilian rainforest fires and solutions going forward

 

Here is a blueprint as to how to approach the problems:

 

The Weather as influenced by El Nino going forward

 

The world going forward:

 

 

Putin and the Cold War Part Two

 

Putin and the Cold War Part One

 

 

The economy of Colonialism: 

Major Case Study: 

Part one, Part two, Part three

 

The economics of colonialism part three

 

The economics of colonialism part two

 

The counterfactual view that explains colonialism

 

D

Dalai Lama

 

 

The Next Dalai Lama.

 

The future Dalai Lama

 

E

East Asia

Economy, see World - World Economy

Egypt

Empires

Enlightenment

EU - Europe

Europe

Extremism

 

 

The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.

 

What Is Achievable In East Asia?

 

 

Countdown Egypt: Why Egypt's Mursi will either resign or be sacked on 3 July

 

What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan

 

Consequences for the balance of power between the Brotherhood and the military

 

Protesters Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices

 

Empires

 

Ghosts Of Empires Past.

 

This Is Particularly True For Empires.

 

The transformation of the Russian Empire part two

 

The transformation of the Russian Empire part one

 

The Holy Roman Empire, the Reformation, and the birth of the Netherlands

 

Beginnings and endings of Empires

 

The concept of Han Chinese

 

The East Asian World Order

 

 

Enlightenment

 

Whose Enlightenment?

 

EU - Europe

 

When Europe Fell Apart.

 

The Promise And Peril Of EU Expansion.

 

The Truth About European Colonialism In The New World.

 

How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.

 

Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.

 

Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.

 

Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.

 

Time To Expand The UN Security Council.

 

Europe’s Real Test Is Yet To Come.

 

Poland 1941.

 

Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.

 

On The Leaks Of A War With China Plus A Recension In Europe.

 

The German Connection.

 

How The War In Ukraine Will Remake The Continent.

 

The Gripping Story Of How A Plot Would Take Over Germany.

 

Germany’s Unlearned Lessons.

 

Germany Just Averted Its Own Jan. 6, And Maybe The Fourth Reich.

 

Inflation And Economic Uncertainty.

 

Why This Could Last For Years.

 

Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU

 

The fate of Europe in 2013

 

Will the European Crises soon be over?

 

The Start of Europe’s fragmentation

 

Why the European crisis has been solved  (for a while).

 

Europe’s Crises Worsening

 

The financial crisis Europe faces it has not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs)

 

Eurozone’s Debt crisis no longer just about Greece. Continue…

 

 

Introduction

 

Critical Investigation:

 

Research Report: Conflict and Ethnicity

 

Research Report: Ethnoclass in Eastern Europe

 

Religion and Modern Politics P.1: Bakunin's Christianity

 

Religion and Modern Politics P.2: From 'New Right' to Habermas Today

 

P.1: The New World of  'Sociology'

 

P.2: Signor Mazzini I Presume?

 

P.3: Social Democrats, A Political Religion

 

Updated:

P.4: The 1914 Clash of Civilisations

 

True History of the European Community, P.1: Its WWI Origin

 

True History of the European Community, P.2: Which Europe?

 

P.1 Globalization and Economics: A Search for the Holy Grail?

 

Cold War and Modern Historiography

 

Including major case study "From Belgium to Kososovo and back"

 

Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.1

 

Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.2, Part 3-a, Part 3-b:

 

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Religion P.1

 

The Future of Democracies Around the World

 

 

How To Understand Extreme Right-Wing Parties.

 

F

Fascism, see Second World War

First World War, see also WWI

 

 

 

 

Revisiting the First World War Part Three

 

Revisiting the First World War Part Two

 

Revisiting the First World War

 

Major Case Study:

A new investigation about the First World War

 

Major Case Study:

Revisiting the Origins of the First World War

 

Major Case Study:

Beyond the Treaty of Versailles

Treaty of Sèvres on 10 August 2020 new complex patterns and alliances were formed (many of them in the Middle East)

 

an interesting section about “The Flemish Lion”

 

The tribulations and consequences of the Treaty of Versailles                       

 

Why World War I was pivotal to the creation of the modern Middle East

 

World War I became known as the war to end all wars

 

A complete timeline of what happened

 

Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the Manchurian episode

 

A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour Declaration

 

How the First World War started P.9

 

How the First World War started P.8

 

How the First World War started P.7

 

How the First World War started P.6

 

Leading up to the First World War P.5

 

Leading up the First World War P.4

 

The almost First World War P.3

 

The almost First World War P.2

 

The almost First World War P.1

 

The conspiracy theory that gave rise to Hitler:

 

P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8:

British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.7:

The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon today

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6:

The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’, and the British

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6:

The Paris Peace Conference deliberations

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5:

The Syrian question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.4:

The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.3:

The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2:

The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.1:

The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East

 

The second First World War

 

The Real Russian Origins of the First World War

 

A new investigation why the First World War broke out

 

G

 

Gaza

Globalization

Global Jihad

Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty

 

 

Southern Gaza City of Rafah.

 

Why it is Crucial that it Not Be.

 

Gantz’s Gaza Plan.

 

Gaza After Gaza.

 

Witness To Palestine.

 

The Way Going Forward In Gaza.

 

The Food Weapon.

 

Palestinian Option.

 

How Israel Fights.

 

Israel And Hamas.

 

America’s Hypocrisy On Gaza.

 

The Path To A Regional Order.

 

 

Requiem for Hyperglobalization.

 

Deglobalization.

 

Is this the end of Globalization?

 

The 'out of Eden' peopling of the earth

 

For example:

 

Historical Overview

 

Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.1

 

The Myth of 1492 - Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.2

 

The Myth of The Industrial Revolution - Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.3

 

What the East Thought the West - Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.4

 

P.1, Mutual Contact

 

P.2, Violent Occupations

 

P.3, Broken Treaties and the Sex Trade

 

P.4, Disease and Changing Worlds

 

P.5, Controlling Landscapes

 

P.6, Administering People

 

P.7, WWII of Indigenous Populations

 

P.8, Enter the 21st Century

 

History of Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First Trade-Wars

 

History of Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First Multinational Companies.

 

"Globalization Flat or Round?"

 

What do Naomi Klein's "No War" have in common with with two other recent books: "The Fire This Time: U.S. War Crimes in the Gulf" or "The Iraq War : A Military History"?

 

others are in complete denial of what is happening to them or soon will happen

 

Postscript: Where did all the Money Go?

 

 

Why this complicates the reaction to the Paris attacks:

 

Paris and the end times of ISIS:

 

why Islamic history

 

The Future of the Islamic State:

 

The Salafist Resurgence

 

Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad

 

Case Study:

Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East

 

Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and Salafi Jihadism: Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck

 

Radical Islam and Global Jihad Today

 

Report:

Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East

 

The Islam Code P.1.

 

The Islam Code P.2.

 

Conclusion:

The Islam Code P.3.

 

An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern Radical Islam P.1

An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern Radical Islam P.2

 

An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern Radical Islam P.3

 

Pictural Overview of the Middle East Today

 

Global Jihad P.1

 

Global Jihad P.2

 

Global Jihad P.3

 

Global Jihad P.4

 

Global Jihad P.5

 

Global Jihad P.6

 

Global Jihad P.7

 

Conclusion and Implications:

Global Jihad P.7

 

The apocalypse within:

 

Updated

Case Analysis:

SA in Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Chechnya

 

Future World Jihad P.1

 

Future World Jihad P.2

 

Future World Jihad P.3: The Nazi Connection

 

Future World Jihad P.4:  Jerusalem’s Armageddon

 

Future World Jihad P.5: What Now?

 

Evidence

 

Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, plus more

 

Global Jihad

Case Study:

Central Asia P.1

 

Central Asia P.2

 

Central Asia P.3

 

Major Researchproject: Future World Jihad P.5 

 

The Quest for World Jihad: Introduction

 

The Quest for World Jihad P.1.

 

The Quest for World Jihad P.2.

 

we described the significance of the Ottoman Empire in the context of today's world jihad

 

let alone an inevitable, consequence of World War 1. The Quest for World Jihad P.3

 

six part investigation of British encounters with Islamic warfare

 

The Quest for World Jihad P.4

 

Bin-Laden’s Bookshelf p.1 and 2

 

2006 30 Jan. al-Qaeda nr.2 on bin-Laden's Truce''

 

Updated

The Background Story of 7/7/2005 in the UK:

 

Today's War on Terrorism

 

A New 'Jihad' Wave?

 

Pakistan

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.1: Egypt and the Sudan

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.2: Somalia and Lebanon

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.3: Wahhabi's and Shi'ites

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.4: Iraq

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.5: Afghanistan

 

The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.6: Strategic Lessons

 

From Hitler to the "Arab Reich"P.1

 

From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.2

 

From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.3

 

From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.4

 

A Convergence of Militant Islam and the New Right?

fringe groups not yet mentioned

 

 

The concept of Han Chinese

 

The East Asian World Order

 

H

Haiti

Hamas

Hawaii

Hitler, see Second World War

Human Origins - Humanity

Houthis

 

 

 

Who Will Lead Haiti?

 

 

How to Deal with Hamas.

 

Consequences of the Israel/Hamas War Part Two.

 

Consequences of the Israel/Hamas War.

 

The Day After.

 

Israel And Hamas

 

 

From Pearl Harbour On.

 

The True Story Of Hawaii.

 

2020 9 July: 

Rediscovering Hawaii's place in the pacific

 

Rediscovering Hawaii's place in the pacific

 

 

 

And Then It Got Cold.

 

The Mystery Of Inequality.

 

The Myth of Human Origins

 

When humanity almost got wiped out

 

 

The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.

 

I

 

Illiberal Democracy

India

International Relations

International Systems

Iran

Iranian-Palestinian

Iraq

Islam

Israel And Hamas

Israel In Gaza

Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem

 

 

The Rising Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.

 

 

How Indian Voters Constrained Modi.

 

Bharatiya Janata Party Suffer a Setback.

 

Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, not Deter, Chinese.

 

Modi’s Middling Economy.

 

The British 'Company’ And The Conquest Of India.

 

The Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion People Hangs In The Balance.

 

Modi's New Messenger.

 

The Teacher To The World.

 

The Story How Hardeep Singh Nijjar Was Killed In Canada, September 2023.

 

India’s Massive Military Restructuring.

 

Will India Surpass China To Become The Next Superpower?

 

India As It Is.

 

India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing.

 

India’s Great-Power Opportunity.

 

Kashmir Today.

 

The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.

 

Why It Is Of Importance.

 

The Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.

 

A Critical Look At Narendra Modi's India Today.

 

India’s Ruling Party Is Losing Control.

 

Why I Killed Gandhi.

 

A New Look At The History Of Partition.

 

Major Case Study:

A movie, a new book, and what India stands for today

 

Ladakh fighting

 

Major Case Study:

The Hindu right in context

 

Could India and China Go to War?

 

Kashmiri militants

 

What is really happening in India?

 

The empire within an empire that changed the future fate of India

 

The impeachment of the first governor-general of Bengal

 

Jammu and Kashmir

 

What happened with Kashmir and why it matters

 

“I think it is probably a god-gifted ability”

 

A concern is that it might leed to more violence in Sri Lanka

 

The 10th anniversary of an assault that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about Kashmir

 

Revisiting India’s Harappan civilization .. where the Indo-European languages came from, enter:

 

..."Indian Mujahadeen" like recent attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur

 

Why Orissa

 

Introduction

 

What is happening in India today?

 

What happened with Kashmir and why it matters.

 

Update

India's tech sector following explosions

 

began on Wednesday, 26 November

 

repercussions in reference to Kashmir

 

including that the Indian air and missile forces were placed on war footing

 

Kashmir is a victim of the disputed division of British India during the transfer of colonial power in 1947.

 

Partition of British India's Geostrategic Cause.

 

Through Burma and Back

 

India: The Clash Within: The World's Largest Democracy?

 

Deciding to go for facts rather than fiction today:

 

The Eurasian Industrial Revolution.

 

Bose movie, published in: Return of the Swastika, 2007 P.1

 

From Japan to Burma, P.2

 

From Nagaland to Burma, P.1

 

From Nagaland to Burma, P.2

 

sometimes also encountered in our research report about Europe

 

Politics in S.Asia P.1

 

Politics in S.Asia P.2 post-1966 Indira Gandhi

 

Politics in S.Asia P.3 Competitive Populism

 

…in Madras Henry Olcott stated

 

Political Religious Violence in Asia P.1

 

Political Religious Violence in Asia P.2

 

Political Religious Violence in Asia P.3

 

Fascism and Communism

 

 

Matthew Specter And Jonathan Kirshner’s New Books.

 

International Systems

 

…the rise and fall of a principle of hierarchical sovereignty. See:

 

…vassalage system employed in Europe some fifteen hundred years later. See:

 

S.America that led up to the League of Nations Conference at Montevideo. See:

 

…most likely resulting in failure. See:

 

…boundaries between political units will increase. See:

 

The state is not the only form of political unit to have existed…See:

 

… former Yugoslavia … See:

 

… crisis in Yugoslavia -- the question we next answered is why. See:

 

… a nascent American imperial that represents the status quo. See:

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.1: Introduction

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.2: China and Tibet

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.3: Islamic Empires

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.4: Christians and Pagans in Europe

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.5: Protestant Reformation

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.6: From God To  Proto-Nationalism

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.7: Demand for increased boundaries

 

The Past and Future of the Nations

P.8: Federalism and its Consequences

 

…disintegration of Yugoslavia…

State Behaviour in the International System P.1

 

…legal tradition…

State Behaviour in the International System P.2

 

…during 2003 Iraq Standoff.

State Behaviour in the International System P.3

 

The Kyoto Protocol and Africa.

State Behaviour in the International System P.4

 

United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, India, and Sierra Leone.

State Behaviour in the International System P.5

 

Conclusion and Outlook:

State Behaviour in the International System P.6

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.1

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.2

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.3

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.4

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.5

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.6

 

From Belgium to Kosovo P.7

 

Introduction

 

Conclusion

 

Iran

 

The Iran-Israel Relationship.

 

Escalation Could Set Israel And Iran On A Collision Course.

 

What Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.

 

Iran’s New Patrons.

 

The Iran Gamble.

 

We Investigate A Sorbid History Under Pressure.

 

Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.

 

An Even More Intransigent Regime.

 

Iran’s Question Of Legitimacy.

 

Iran’s Anti-Veil Protests Have Already Succeeded.

 

The enduring relationship between China and Iran

 

What next?

 

What to make of the Iran protests? 

 

Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control of the Middle East

 

Iran - Gaza Offensive: Why the Iranian connection will complicate the situation

 

Iran threatens to block Strait of Hormuz oil route, yet why they will not

 

Military steps up plans for Iran attack?

 

Introduction

 

Modern Iran P.1

 

Modern Iran P.2

 

The Iran Papers P.1

 

The Iran Papers P.2

 

The Iran Papers P.3

 

The Iran Papers P.4

 

The Iran Papers P.5

 

Conclusion: The Iran Papers

 

…Iran…

 

Iran-Chinese relationship

 

Iran and its conspiracytheories

 

 

Whoever Succeeds Him Won’t Change Course.

 

Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners Choose To Escalate.

 

Why Iran And Israel May Not Be Finished.

 

The Cascading World.

 

Iran's Strategy.

 

A Detente Option For Iran.

 

The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.

 

Iraq

 

What is to follow after Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi's resignation

 

Islam

 

 

The End of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part Two.

 

The End of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part One.

 

Early Islam and the decay of Rome part two

 

Major Case Study: 

Early Islam and the decay of Rome part one

 

 

The Day After.

 

Hamas’s Future.

 

Israel From A Singaporean Perspective.

 

The Rafah Operation.

 

Pressuring Allies Not To Retaliate Against Attacks Raises The Risk Of Spiraling Conflicts.

 

Hamas Part Two.

 

Qatar And The Hamas Leader.

 

These Are The Three Options.

 

Only Way Is To Defeat Hamas.

 

Israel And Hamas.

 

 

Stuck In Gaza.

 

Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.

 

Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem

 

When Israel Was in China.

 

The Iran-Israel Relationship.

 

Palestine: a British Dilemma.

 

Regional Ties of Israel.

 

Where the Case Stands Now.

 

The Land that is Israel.

 

Consequences of the Israel/Hamas War Part Two.

 

Consequences of the Israel/Hamas War.

 

Can America’s Special Relationship With Israel Survive?

 

How it Could be Done.

 

When The Palestinian Flag Was Raised At Harvard.

 

But This Is Equally True For The United States.

 

Why International Law Is Failing.

 

Judicial Reforms As War Of Words Escalates.

 

The Coming Arab Backlash.

 

Jordanian Fighter Pilots.

 

Dilemmas Of The Gulf States.

 

So What Is It All About?

 

Relations With Israel And American Leadership.

 

Israel's Cyberabilities.

 

The New Capacity.

 

Witness To Palestine.

 

Where This War Will Go Next?

 

The Food Weapon.

 

Palestinian Option.

 

How Israel Fights.

 

Israel And Hamas.

 

America’s Hypocrisy On Gaza.

 

The Path To A Regional Order.

 

The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.

 

Gaza Makes A Nuclear Iran More Likely.

 

Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.

 

Why Peace Remains Possible.

 

The Ongoing Houthi Attacks.

 

The Choice Cannot Be Clearer.

 

Gaza Historical Role.

 

But Far Greater Risks May Emerge If He Doesn’t.

 

Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.

 

Researching Israel’s Goals And Strategy.

 

How Hamas Has United Israelis Behind The War.

 

The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.

 

The Way Going Forward In Gaza.

 

The Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

 

Why Israel Won’t Change.

 

Protest The Netanyahu Government.

 

What Does It Mean To Defeat A Terrorist Group?

 

The Gaza Case.

 

It Is A Pattern That Is Already Playing Out Again.

 

Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A Meeting In Doha?

 

The No Blueprint Assault.

 

The Protests In Israel.

 

Duelling Speeches.

 

The End Of Israel’s Gaza Illusions.

 

What To Do About Gaza, And What Gazans Think.

 

Israel Enter Gaza Imminent.

 

Misinformation About The Israel-Hamas War Is Flooding Social Media.

 

Erdogan And The Hamas-Israel War.

 

Escalation Could Set Israel And Iran On A Collision Course.

 

The Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.

 

Return The Gaza Strip To Palestinians.

 

A Strategy Beyond Revenge.

 

Why Washington Should Restrain Israeli Military Action In Gaza.

 

Time To Step Back From The Brink.

 

Hamas Rise To Power.

 

How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.

 

Crises In The Middle East.

 

Gaza Redux Part One.

 

Hezbollah, Israel, And Tehran.

 

The Why And How Of The Surprise Attack On Israel.

 

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

 

What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The Palestinians.

 

Debating Israel’s One-State Reality.

 

Confronting A One-State Reality.

 

The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.

 

Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.

 

How To Prevent A Third Intifada.

 

The Holy Land and its contestants

 

Major Case Study:

A critical history of Palestine P.2

 

Major Case Study:

A critical history of Palestine P.1

 

The story of British Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.2

 

The story of British Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.1

 

Jerusalem Unveiled

 

Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan.2017

 

The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the Grand Mosque in Mecca: What two million people are about to do here

 

The Palestinians' Real Enemies

 

The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups than Hamas, wider relevance or importance

 

A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem

 

The Problems with Israel and Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel

 

The Problems with Israel and Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians

 

Israeli military incursion

P1: Geostrategy of Israel

 

J

 

Japan

 

Japan

 

To China and South Korea.

 

East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse.

 

Tokyo Aims To Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.

 

The Consensus From Canberra To Tokyo.

 

The Japanese Attempt to Solve the Mongol Question

 

Major Case Study:

Asia after China

 

Japans dealing with China

 

Identity in Japan

 

Anglo-American ascendance

 

The U.S. financial siege of Japan:

 

The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was

 

…Turkish and Japanese foreign policies, and why: Continue...

 

Cold War Japan

 

demanded that Japan open its doors to foreign trade

 

The U.S. financial siege of Japan:

 

The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was

 

Making the New Japan:

 

The New Japan P.1:

 

The New Japan P.2:

 

Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony:

An Assessment P.1.

 

Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony: From Japanese to Chinese Containment?

An Assessment P.2.

 

K

 

Kurds

 

Kurds

 

What next with the Kurdish conundrum?

 

L

 

Latinoamerica, see also South America

 

 

Mexico On Edge?

 

Who Will Lead Haiti?

 

Bolsonaro Redux.

 

When The Past Does Not Go Away.

 

The Haitian Government Is Dependent On International Power.

 

Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.

 

The Current Situation.

 

Far-Right Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.

 

A History Of Making Bad Situatiuations Worse.

 

Latin America 2022.

 

Democracy Or Authoritarian Populism?

 

M

 

Middle East

Moscow To China

Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis

 

Middle East

 

The Red Sea.

 

The Region’s Perilous Security Conditions.

 

The Making Of The Middle East.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Seven.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Six.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Five.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Four.

 

The Middle East Gamble.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.

 

The Path To A Regional Order.

 

The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.

 

The Problems With The Middle East.

 

Part One:

 

How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.

 

Crises In The Middle East.

 

Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.

 

Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

 

How To Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.

 

What Needs To Happen Next.

 

The Making Of The Middle East.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part 2.

 

The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.

 

Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part Two

 

Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part One

 

Why World War I was pivotal to the creation of the modern Middle East

 

Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control of the Middle East

 

The Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8: 

British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.7: 

The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon today

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6: 

The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’, and the British

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6:

The Paris Peace Conference deliberations

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5:

The Syrian question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.4:

The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.3:

The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2:

The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.1:

The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East

 

Does the Middle East Need New Borders?

 

The contradictory web that fuels conflicts in the Middle East

 

Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin America

 

Case Study:

Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East

 

Pictural Overview of the Middle East

 

conflict in Yemen seems anything but over:

 

Jerusalem Unveiled

 

Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan. 2017

 

The Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4

 

Geopolitical Implications

 

The Shi’ite-Suni Devide

 

Case Study:

Shi'ite Lebanon and Hezbollah

 

The Occupation and its Legacy, P.1

 

The Occupation and its Legacy, P.2

 

The Occupation and its Legacy, P.3

 

Unknown to most we checkep up who and what Hezbollah really is

Who/What Hezbollah really is: The Larger Picture

 

…the new conflict between the post-Christian West and Islam…Case Study

 

Research Report:

The Iran US Conflict

 

also in the case of China

 

Research Report:

The Iran US Conflict Today

 

Israel is the 'Zion' of prophecy, part of God's plan

 

We frequently pointed out

 

Case Study:

Pan-Arabist Media

 

The New Pan-Arabism P.2:

 

Research Report:

Saudi-Arabia and Terrorism:

World Jihad

 

 

From Moscow To China

 

Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis

 

The Situation in Myanmar Today.

 

The Future of Myanmar.

 

Major Case Study: Myanmar and the looming war for its borderlands Part Five

 

Major Case Study: Myanmar and the looming war for its borderlands Part Four

 

Major Case Study: 

Myanmar and the looming war for its borderlands Part Three

 

Major Case Study: Myanmar and the looming war for its borderlands Part Two

 

Major Case Study:

Myanmar and the looming war for its borderlands Part one

 

What Myanmar as a failed state may look like:

 

What next with Myanmar

 

The ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim Rohingya communities of western Myanmar

 

Major Case Study:

The consequences of the Arakan Campaign

 

in reference to faulting Myanmar

 

...where she is planning to deny any wrongdoing by the armed forces and defend Myanmar against charges of ethnic cleansing or genocide

 

The politics of statelessness investigation

 

The Rakhine/Rohingya Conundrum

 

What next with Myanmar and its Chinese influence  Plus update 2 February

 

Myanmar update

 

Myanmar P.6:

Mawlamyine and beyond

 

Myanmar P.5:

Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State

 

Myanmar P.4:

The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country

 

Myanmar P.3:

Two kinds of Monks

 

Myanmar P.2:

To Myitkyina and Kachin State

 

Myanmar P.1:

Discovering the background from where today’s Myanmar evolved

 

China/US, 2013 projection for Myanmar/Burma

 

Myanmar's Shame:

 

the Panglong agreement

 

Aung San was assassinated just over five months later.

 

…crisis or political uncertainty, was the military. Continue…

 

….most Burmese watched and waited, untroubled by the small flurries of activity among Europeans. Continue... 

 

…inter-communal hatred versus the Karen and others. Continue…

 

…and thus contributing to the confusion. Continue…

 

…Asia weighed heavily on the minds of the British. Continue...

 

…as they had been doing for years. Continue…

 

…or minority tribal leaders to hold out for too much. Continue...

 

…of a favorable conjunction of the stars. Continue...

 

…Burma soon had all but become one of the first 'failed states’. Continue...

 

The return of Japan post WWII. Continue...

 

N

Napoleon

NATO

North Korea

Nuclear Peril

 

 

Enter Napoleon:

 

 

 

The End of NATO?

 

The West Needs A Strategy For After The Counteroffensive.

 

How To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.

 

Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius.

 

The Next Few Years Will Be Crucial.

 

NATO’s East Deterring Russia.

 

Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.

 

Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.

 

The Leaked Documents.

 

How To Protect Ukraine Without NATO Membership.

 

Explaining The NEW NATO Strategic Concept.

 

What the situation looks like going forward

 

 

The Coming North Korean Crisis.

 

What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.

 

A Form Of Preparation For War.

 

The Korea Model.

 

Today's Situation In Korea.

 

Major Case Study:

The Korean War in context

 

The news from N.Korea

 

The USA “ready to fight tonight” claim

 

Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or intervene P.1

 

....N. Korea … Continue

 

 

What Proliferation Means For Global Security.

 

The Return Of Nuclear Escalation.

 

Confronting The New Nuclear Peril.

 

O

Oman

 

 

Major Case Study: 

Charting the future of Oman

 

P

 

Pacific War

Pakistan

Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem

Political Qigong

Psychology - Psychiatry

Putin

 

 

The Pacific Space.

 

The five days that made Pearl Harbours as a key for the worldwide war.

 

Part Eight Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Seven Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Six Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Five Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Four Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Three Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part Two Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Part One Can a potential future Pacific War be avoided?

 

Pakistan

 

Imran Khan’s Long March.

 

The 10th anniversary of an assault that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about Kashmir

 

Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan

 

For an overview of Pakistan enter here:

 

Introduction:

to support an Islamic State in Pakistan

 

…controlled by British political officers with the help of tribal chieftains...

Continue P.1

 

…Blood and chaos were everywhere."

Continue P.2

 

…some ways to think about territory, history, and ethnic belonging. Continue P.3

 

…key theories of nationalism.

Continue P.4

 

Who Made Pakistan? P.5: The Militarization of Pakistan

 

P.6 India's Backlash

 

…under civil/military rulers before turning Islamic during the last decade and a half. Continue P.7

 

With the case of Indonesia, India, and Pakistan…

 

 

 

Case Study:

The Politics of Qigong

 

Psychology - Psychiatry

 

Rationality and progress

 

The logic of human nature and causal networks

 

So what to do about bias?

 

The secrets behind the making of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Three

 

The secrets behind the making of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Two

 

The secrets behind the making of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part One

 

So what is with Psychological Science?

 

Here are eight ways how we can form more accurate views of the world

 

The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help books and Happiness

 

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Psychology and Psychiatry

 

From New Thought to Self Improvement Books

 

 

Putin And The Right

 

Q

 

Qatar

 

 

Two longtime rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse

 

Case Study:

Qatar's master strategy or opportunism?

 

R

Russia – Central Asia

Russia - Putin

Russia - Tsar

 

Russia – Central Asia

 

Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.

 

To Sow that Fear in Moscow.

 

Russia’s Quest for a Gateway to Iran and the Middle East.

 

To Run the World.

 

Putin Threatens the West with "Special Ammunition."

 

Russia’s Pro-Putin Elites.

 

Foreign Propagandists.

 

The Russian Volunteer Corps.

 

The Anti-Western Club.

 

The Five Futures Of Russia.

 

Too Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.

 

Like In The First World War?

 

What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.

 

What The West Still Gets Wrong About Russia’s Military.

 

What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.

 

The Wagner Paramilitary Group.

 

Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.

 

The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.

 

Think Twice Before You Launch A Conflict.

 

The War Of Endurance.

 

Blinded By The Fight.

 

Crimes Without Punishment?

 

China’s Affinity With Russia Is Over.

 

The Treacherous Path To A Better Russia.

 

How Wars Don’t End Ukraine, Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.

 

Prepare For A Brutal War.

 

1984 In Russia Today.

 

Stalin’s Secret Force.

 

The Latest News.

 

The Question Of Chinese Military Support For Russia.

 

A Partial Victory Will Solve Little.

 

The Coming Russia Disintegration.

 

The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.

 

Russia And China Behind The Scenes.

 

The Limits Of Economic Warfare.

 

How To Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.

 

The Russia That Might Have Been.

 

Looting As A Potential War Crime.

 

How Long Can This Not-Quite-Total War Be Sustained?

 

Russia’s Anti-Jewish Dimension.

 

Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.

 

The War Will Go On Into Next Year.

 

Russian Patriotic Death Cult.

 

Russia Is Losing The War.

 

Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures In Ukraine?

 

Export Control Cooperation From Allies.

 

They Can Do Business With.

 

2023 Is The Decisive Year.

 

Why The Sanctions In Russia Are Already Biting Hard.

 

How Putin Is About To Lose His War.

 

The War Will Likely Continue Until The End Of 2023.

 

To Prepare For Russia’s Collapse.

 

Russia's Target Of 300,000 Additional Troops.

 

The Russian Crisis.

 

To Know Stalin And What Followed.

 

To Recognize The Stakes.

 

We Have To Prepare For Russia’s Defeat But Also Its Return.

 

A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself From The Inside Out.

 

In 1954, Crimea Was Transferred From Russia To Ukraine.

 

A Re-Assessment.

 

Why Policymakers Around The World Should Take Note.

 

Revisiting the Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Four.

 

Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Three.

 

Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Two.

 

Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part One.

 

What should not be taken off the table when talking with Putin

 

We show in seven maps how Ukraine came about

 

Major Case Study: 

Putin Has Long Tried to Balance Europe. Now He’s Working to Reset It

 

What the situation looks like going forward

 

Ukraine today

 

Why Putin believes Ukraine was given to Russia

 

Putin and the Cold War Part Two

 

Putin and the Cold War Part One

 

The transformation of the Russian Empire part two

 

The transformation of the Russian Empire part one

 

Why Putin claims that most of Ukraine “was given” to Russia

 

Gorbachev’s reforms

 

Imperial Russia and Qing China

 

Revealing Harbin’s interesting Russian history

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.7

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.6

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.5

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.4

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.3

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.2

 

Major Case Study:

Spys Invade Russia P.1

 

The Svalbard/Spitsbergen Saga

 

 

Major Case Study:

Was the Cold War inevitable?

 

A German and British plot to take the last Tsar  

 

Ukraine as a test case

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.6.

British spycraft in Bolshevist Russia

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.5.

What must develop into a civil war

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.4.

How North Russia evolved into its military phase

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.3.

The alleged protecting of supplies propaganda

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.2.

To mold irregular warfare into a method which honored the Imperial myth

 

Major Case Study:

When Spies invaded Russia P.1

 

Major Case Study:

Why is Ukraine so important to Russia

 

From Rasputin to little known aspects of Nicholas’s II abdication and the situation in Russia

 

British Imperial Agents invade Russia P.2: The British Banking scheme to control Russia’s economy and the Allied intervention

 

British Imperial Agents invade Russia P.1: here the lesser known aspects surrounding the events of 1918          

 

Captives of the Russian Civil War P.4: From White resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement 

 

Captives of the Russian Civil War P.3: The rise and fall of Komuch’s People’s Army

 

Captives of the Russian Civil War P.2: The Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention

 

Captives of the Russian Civil War P.1: Why and how the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian railway

 

Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine

 

…Russia vis a vis a US plane: We tell you why it happened

 

Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European extreme right wing parties

 

The main question now is whether Russia will push back with what power it has left or find a way to compromise with this shifting worldview

 

Case Study:

The ‘decline of the West’ and a look behind Putin’s new Eurasianism

 

Intelligence scoop of what is happening with the Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:

 

Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:

 

Enter the Unfolding Crises in Europe and the Ukraine/Crimea:

 

The Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the last days of the Soviet Union

 

…Russia wants to increase its influence. …China might be concerned, plus… Continue:

 

Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of Empire?

 

Introduction

 

The Next European Battleground?

 

Russia’s Geostrategic Predicament and Power Today P1

 

Finding the West

 

following part

 

Introduction: Gorbachev’s Last Days

 

Case Study:

Russia’s Move Towards the Right

 

Global Jihad Case Study:

Central Asia P.1

 

Central Asia P.2

 

Central Asia P.3

 

Research Report:

Russia’s Geostrategic Roots Today

 

European policy that is about to change now …Comment

 

…more questions than answers.

Comment P.1

Comment P.2:

…transforming the face of Eurasia

 

Predicting the next half Year:

 

Russia’s New Map: The Third Rome

 

A History of Eurasianism

 

The New Map of Russia

 

Russia’s New Map P.2: A History of Panslavism

 

Russia’s New Map P.3

 

World Revolution: The Roots of Modern Russia

 

How the End of the Cold War Occurred

 

After the Cold War: America over the Brink

 

What Led To The Dissolution of The Soviet Union 1991

 

Central Asia: Why The Great Game Heats Up

 

Why The Great Game Heats Up P.2: Azerbaijan

 

 

Putin Threatens the West with "Special Ammunition."

 

Russia’s Pro-Putin Elites.

 

Putin And The Right.

 

Bolshevik Rule.

 

Too Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.

 

What Does Putin Want?

 

What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.

 

What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.

 

Why There Can Be No Negotiations With Putin.

 

The Beginning Of The End For Putin?

 

Crisis Abates, But Questions Remain.

 

Is Worse To Come From Putin?

 

How Putin Revived Stalinism.

 

Dictator Without Borders.

 

Putin’s Forever War.

 

Putin, The Suspect.

 

Putin Remains In Day-To-Day Government.

 

Sanctions Can Help End Putin’s Imperial Pretensions If The West Keeps Its Nerve.

 

The War Started Due To Putin's Policy Failure.

 

War in Ukraine Has Revealed About Putin’s Regime.

 

Indications Putin Decided To Give The Missile That Downed MH17.

 

They Can Do Business With.

 

2023 Is The Decisive Year.

 

How Putin Is About To Lose His War.

 

Calling Out Putin's Excuse.

 

Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And More.

 

Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.

 

The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy Lines.

 

Divide And Conquer.

 

The Polish Incident That Is Changing It.

 

We Investigate The Nonproliferation Conundrum.

 

Why Putin Gladly Tells You Is No Khrushchev.

 

What Is Needed For The Russian Economy To Grow.

 

China The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.

 

Putin And Stalin.

 

Turkey And Russia: Friends For Now.

 

What To Do About Putin.

 

We Assess The Possibility Of Regime Collapse.

 

The Outcome Of Significant Wars Ultimately Comes Down To Attrition.

 

The Way Forward For Russia.

 

Putin Puts Faith In The Poor Man's Weapon.

 

The War Might Last Another Year And What That Means.

 

Our Source In The Kremlin Speaks Up.

 

What Happens To Russia’s Periphery.

 

Why Today It Becomes More Likely Putin Will Lose This War. 

 

A Fear Greater Than Putin.

 

The End Of Putin’s Bargain With The People.

 

Climbing The Escalation Ladder.

 

How To Build A Better Order.

 

Policy For A World In Crisis.

 

Putin's Private Army.

 

Why Is There Little Hope For A Quick Rebound.

 

Wait For The Tide To Turn.

 

They Will Be Front And Center In Domestic And Global Politics.

 

Naturally, There Can Be No Excuse, Only Ruthless Punishment.

 

Assessment Of How The Russia-Ukraine War Is Progressing.

 

Peter Took Russia Into The Future. Putin Pushing It Back To The Past.

 

Russians Are In For A Rude Awakening This Fall.

 

There Is A Risk Of Serious Harm.

 

China Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.

 

Bad Timing Of Global Agriculture And Food Supply Chains.

 

Russia’s Security Concerns And Allay Its Anxieties.

 

China’s Motivations.

 

Fantasy Is Not History.

 

When The Economic Recovery Comes.

 

Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion Hinges On The Coming Battle Of Kherson.

 

Convicted For The Usurpation Of Power.

 

This Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.

 

Russias Fifth Service.

 

The Ukraine/Russia War.

 

Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.

 

Time For New Trade Agreements.

 

What Next With The World Energy Situation.

 

Whose Middle East?

 

What If The War In Ukraine Spins Out Of Control?

 

Can Austria Stay Neutral?

 

Explaining How Far NATO Can Go.

 

Western Fears Of Putin.

 

Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.

 

The Case For Diplomacy.

 

He Has None.

 

This Is Not A Victory.

 

The Key To Victory In Ukraine.

 

A Need To Build A Better World Order.

 

A Global Cold War.

 

Part Eight From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Seven From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Six From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Five From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Four From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Three From 1917 To 2022.

 

Part Two From 1917 To 2022.

 

From 1917 To 2022.

 

The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.

 

Can Putin Survive?

 

Why The Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight In Ukraine.

 

Why Do Russian Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?

 

Why Ukraine Reached A Pivotal Moment.

 

Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.

 

The Why Of The Road To War.

 

The Putin Challenge.

 

Putin’s Challenge To The West.

 

Why Putin’s Ukraine War Is An Inflection Point For The West.

 

Why It Is Too Soon For A Lasting Diplomatic Settlement.

 

What Candidate Status Would Mean.

 

Russia’s Early Failures Doesn’t Make It Less Dangerous.

 

Russian Army Would Have To Collapse.

 

The End Of Climate Policy.

 

Why Does China Neither Endorse Nor Condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin’s War?

 

What The G7 Foreign Ministers Will Do.

 

Belgian Lessons.

 

What Will The Consequences Of Mobilization Be?

 

The Kremlin’s Questionable Worldview.

 

Understanding The Kremlin’s Worldview.

 

Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part One.

 

The Re-Invention Of History And National Identity.

 

Why The War In Ukraine Is Shifting.

 

Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Three.

 

Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Two.

 

Understanding Putin’s Worldview Part One.

 

The Wargame.

 

How Serious A Threat Is Putin.

 

The War About Food Supplies.

 

Infiltrating The Highest Level Of Government.

 

Meanwhile, Russians Are Fleeing Their Country In Doves.

 

Revealing Putin’s Inconsistencies While Striving For A New Empire.

 

Geostrategy Of Russia.

 

Putin’s Victory Speech.

 

The Murder Of General Wrangel An Equally Famous Ballerina.

 

The Atomic Option.

 

A “New” War, Twenty Years In The Making.

 

Exposure To Russian Intelligence Services.

 

Major Case Study: 

The Mongolia Factor.

 

Moscow’s Suez Moment.

 

What Putin Has In Mind Next.

 

Who Is The Tsar Of Russia.

 

 

Life For The Tsar.

 

S

 

Second World War, see also WWII

Slavery North America

South America

South Asia

Spy Agencies - Secret Intelligence Services

Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen

 

 

The Special Operations Executive In France And Elsewhere.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part Six.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part Five.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part Four.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part Three.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part Two.

 

Hitler's Aristocrats Part One.

 

Major Case Study: 

The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences Part Two

 

Major Case Study: 

The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences Part One

 

The post-WWII new order part two

 

The post-WWII new order part one

 

The old order is crumbling, and a new order is rising

 

Axis states understood they settled the moral low ground.

 

The Second World War created the conditions for transforming Europe and the entire global geopolitical order.

 

Creating a new world order part one.

 

How the various countries justified WWII Part One.

 

Major Case Study: 

From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II Part Four

 

Major Case Study: 

From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II Part Three

 

Major Case Study: 

From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II Part Two

 

Major Case Study: From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II Part One

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Sixteen

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Fifteen

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Fourteen

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Thirteen

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Twelve

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Eleven

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Ten

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Nine

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Eight

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Seven

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Six

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Five

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Four

Trianon (1919 and 1920)

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Three

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Two

 

Major Case Study:

Russia, Germany, and Poland Part One

 

How Britain hoped to avoid war with Germany in the 1930s

 

Major Case Study: 

The Vatican archives and World War II

 

When Britain gave Hitler the go-ahead

 

Hitler’s Bolshevism and the myth of the Jewish Conspiracy

 

 

Slavery North America

 

Major Case Study:

London, Madrid, and the creation of Washington, D.C.

 

South America

 

Case Study:

S.America P.1: Overview

Case Study:

S.AmericaP.2: Economic Musings

 

Case Study:

S.America P.3:

The Road to Independence

 

Case Study:

S.America P.4:

Che and Castro

 

Case Study:

S.America P.5:

From Chile to Brazil

 

…and distribution networks: Research Report

 

Hugo Chaves

 

Anonymous activists threaten to expose Mexican drug cartel secrets, here the context:

 

South Asia

 

A Nuclear Collision Course In South Asia.

 

Introduction

 

... traders that "turned sovereign". And Burke sought the impeachement of the companies Governor, Warren-Hastings...

 

History of Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First Trade-Wars

 

History of Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First Multinational Companies

 

So let us start with the most important one, language

 

a gendered/racial categorization of the Indian populace by the British gave rise to several stereotypes like the manly Sikh, the devious Maratha, and the loyal Gurkha

 

a reaction to the warfare 'with France in Europe', that 'The British Company' proceeded to involve itself more actively with 'local politics.' This becomes particularly apparent when one doesn't only consult British, but also French sources

 

Hindutva

The Secret Backround of the Kashmir Problem

 

…overview of Atlantis and Lemuria:

 

'World Hindu Council'

 

Bengal: Making a New Hinduism:

 

Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.1:

 

Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.2

 

Politics or Culture?: Hindu and Muslim Fundamentalism Today

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: The Anti Aryan Myth

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: Seek Mason, Will Travel

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: Are you a Sikh?

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: Polynesian Aryans

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: The Orion Myth

 

Reformed Aryans, in East and West: Aryan Christianity

 

our overview about India

 

Spy Agencies – Secret Intelligence Services

 

The Spy that Defeated the Nazis.

 

The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.

 

The Noor Inayat Khan Story.

 

The Spying Program.

 

How To Spy On China.

 

The Harrowing Story Of A Double Agent.

 

Possibility That Chinese Spy Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.

 

Why Are Meteorologists Tracking The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?

 

Codename Madeleine.

 

The Secretive PWE Political Warfare Executive.

 

The Inside World About Spy Agencies Revealed.

 

Meet the new world today’s spy agencies part three

 

Meet the new world today’s spy agencies part two

 

Important Case Study: 

Meet the new world today's spy agencies

 

Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen

 

 

The Path To A Regional Order.

 

The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.

 

Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.

 

The Ongoing Houthi Attacks.

 

U.S. Strikes Targets In Syria.

 

Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis.

 

Time To Move On.

 

What Needs To Happen Next.

 

The Making Of The Middle East.

 

The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part 2.

 

The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.

 

Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part Two

 

Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part One

 

..conflict in Yemen seems anything but over

 

The Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward

 

Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there isn't anymore

 

Investigating the never-ending Great War

 

As suggested by me earlier International rivalry and the battle for Syria

 

...Aleppo, question is for how long

 

…entered the Ramouseh Artillery Base… Who are the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond

 

.. Syrian Civil War…The make or break battle currently underway, rebels appear to be losing

 

FM denounces "cynical game" of Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow

 

How close is ISIS to defeat, and will Turkey invade Syria?

 

Does the Middle East Need New Borders?

 

Fighting in Syria seen problematic for Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under discussion

 

Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation Will Look Like:

 

The Sunni-Shia struggle

 

The Arab World in Transition 2013

 

Why the War in Syria will not end with the removal of the al Assad regime

 

Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical Weapons, yet why we should still be worried

 

The contradictory web that fuels conflicts in the Middle East

 

Upcoming turmoil in Asia?

 

Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting the course of future events

 

Background forms the rebel Free Syrian Army supply lines in Lebanon

 

T

Taiwan

Taiwan Conundrum

Thailand

Turkey

Turkey In Context

 

 

The Perils of the Taiwan Strait.

 

Major Case Study:

The lead up to present-day China and the making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis

 

After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?

 

Taiwan going forward

 

Is China planning to take Taiwan by force?

 

 

Taiwan Conundrum

 

Thailand

 

Thailand, China, And The US.

 

Uighur terrorist attack in China, a shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to top it off, a coup in Thailand

 

Thailand and the Political and Economic Volatility in Important Markets  

 

The insurgency in Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas

 

Turkey

 

Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.

 

Turkey In Context.

 

Will Erdogan Stay in Power?

 

Erdogan’s Foot-Dragging On Sweden And Finland Is Causing Headaches For Western Leaders.

 

Turkey And Russia: Friends For Now.

 

Turkey in context today

 

Conclusion about what is really happening in Turkey

 

Turkey's government fears second coup

 

Turkey’s new Sultanate

 

Why Turkey shot down the Russian Jet

 

more than a year ago …Turkey and Armenia…

 

Turkish bid for EU membership ….  today:

 

Introduction

 

Evolving Turkey P.1

 

Evolving Turkey P.2

 

Evolving Turkey P.3

 

Evolving Turkey P.4

 

Evolving Turkey P.5

 

aligned itself

 

former Islamist

 

Conclusion and Bibliography

 

Case Study:

…Turkish and Japanese foreign policies, and why. Continue...

 

 

Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.

 

Erdogan And Hamas.

 

Turkey In Context

 

U

UAE

Ukraine

United Kingdom

United Nations, UN

United States

 

UAE

 

The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World

 

 

Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.

 

How to Create a Durable Peace in Europe.

 

Stop Fearing Victory.

 

American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine.

 

The Way Forward In Ukraine.

 

Obstacles To Diplomacy In Ukraine.

 

What NATO Membership Will Require.

 

Winning The Battle But Losing The War.

 

Why The War Might Defy Expectations.

 

Preparing For American Abandonment.

 

The Quiet Transformation.

 

The Ukraine-Taiwan Tradeoff.

 

All This Could Encourage Further Adventurism.

 

Negotiations Over Territory.

 

The Missing Escalation In Ukraine.

 

Will The West Abandon Ukraine?

 

What Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.

 

Ukraine And Next.

 

Back In The Ukraine Trenches.

 

The War Of Endurance.

 

Postwar Ukraine.

 

End In Sight For The Ukraine War.

 

Ukraine And The American War Machine.

 

How Wars Don’t End Ukraine, Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.

 

How The West Can Secure Ukraine’s Future.

 

What Really Happened To The Kakhovka Dam?

 

Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.

 

Vexing The Ukraine War On The Ground.

 

How Ukraine Learned To Fight.

 

Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive.

 

A Loophole In The Law.

 

Ukrainian War Going Forward.

 

Ukraine Today.

 

Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.

 

A Partial Victory Will Solve Little.

 

Waiting On Weapons.

 

Ukraine And U.S. National Security.

 

The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.

 

A Plan For Getting To The Negotiating Table.

 

The Promise Of Military Adaptation.

 

How To Protect Ukraine Without NATO Membership.

 

Ukraine’s Determination.

 

How To Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.

 

The Conversations When Ukraine Wins.

 

Fortifying Ukraine.

 

Make The Position Of The Russian Military Untenable.

 

Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

 

The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.

 

The War Will Go On Into Next Year.

 

An Even More Intransigent Regime.

 

Ukraine’s Coming Electricity Crisis.

 

What Ukraine Needs To Liberate Crimea.

 

Breakthrough In Ukraine.

 

Kennan On Ukraine.

 

Reading Like A Spynovel This is What Happened.

 

Why Some Wars Don’t End.

 

Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And More.

 

Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.

 

The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy Lines.

 

Divide And Conquer.

 

How The US Can Help.

 

The Situation Ukraine Is Facing This Winter.

 

We Analyse What The Result Of The Airstrikes Will Be.

 

Putin's Atomic Gamble.

 

Game-Changer For Current And Future Conflicts.

 

How Ukraine Can Take Back All Its Territory.

 

Ukraine As A Poison Pill For Putin.

 

Putin’s Eventual Replacement.  

 

Putin Threated Nuclear Response.

 

The UNGA Meeting.

 

The Nuclear Strike Aimed At Shock?

 

Mobilize, Retreat, Or Something In Between?

 

Why Support For Ukraine Will Withstand Russian Pressure.

 

Is Ukraine Going To Win This War?

 

Africa’s Ukraine Dilemma.

 

Xi Jinping's Strategic Predicament And The View From Washington.

 

From Ukraine to Taiwan.

 

Putin's Victory Speech.

 

 

 

How The World Lost Faith In The UN.

 

 

Palestine: a British Dilemma.

 

The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.

 

The Red Book.

 

Royalty And The Nazi's Part One.

 

The Secret History Of The Glastonbury Festival.

 

Sunak Hopes To Mend Fences With Europe.

 

The UK Today.

 

Why The House Of Windsor Will Ultimately Fall.

 

Can Sunak Save Britain?

 

The Limits Of Monarchy.

 

The UK Can Be Leading By Supporting.

 

The rise and fall of the Thomas Cook Group

 

Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat, Heightening Chances of an Election

 

Boris is back…Today’s cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however

 

The next steps of Theresa May

 

"We're out", well sort of. The Implications and Germany's nightmare:

 

What will happen after Brexit:

 

United States

 

Their Words Should be Taken Seriously.

 

Will America and China Heed the Warnings.

 

But He Cannot Fire Them.

 

Where the Case Stands Now.

 

Can America’s Special Relationship With Israel Survive?

 

How One Man Seduced the U.S. Navy.

 

The End of NATO?

 

The Ongoing Investigation.

 

Washington’s Fears About Energy Markets.

 

Why U.S. Credibility And Resolve Is At Stake.

 

The Tiktok Ban Shows How Decisions End Up Rushed.

 

Why TikTok Needs To Get Out Of The Hands Of The Chinese Government.

 

Showing An Industrial Strategy.

 

Blinken-Xi Talks Also Highlight Continued Areas Of Disagreement.

 

The Patron’s Dilemma.

 

The Politicization Of The U.S. Military.

 

Japan Defense And China Springboard.

 

US New World War.

 

Explaining America’s Global Role.

 

The New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.

 

Bracing For Trump 2.0.

 

The West Needs A Strategy For After The Counteroffensive.

 

Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.

 

Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?

 

How To Boost Cooperation.

 

The Formula For Managing Migration.

 

The Overlooked Influences On Donald Trump.

 

Think Twice Before You Launch A Conflict.

 

The Global South.

 

Living On The Edge.

 

How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.

 

Ukraine And The American War Machine.

 

The Virtue Of Low Expectations.

 

The U.S.-Chinese Economic Relationship.

 

Spread Too Thin?

 

Ukraine And U.S. National Security.

 

A Plan For Getting To The Negotiating Table.

 

The New Age Of Great-Power Competition.

 

The Leaked Documents.

 

America Fill The Missile Gap.

 

The Promise Of Military Adaptation.

 

How Elites Misread Public Perceptions Of The War.

 

We Investigate A Sorbid History Under Pressure.

 

The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.

 

China Is A Paper Tiger.

 

Technology Defines The Future Of Geopolitics.

 

Does Technology Win Wars?

 

Rattled By China, The U.S., And Its Allies Are Beefing Up Defenses In The Pacific.

 

How Biden White House Operated Under Cloak-And-Dagger Secrecy.

 

Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.

 

America Is Back.

 

U.S. To Boost Military Role In Philippines As Fear Of Taiwan Conflict Grows.

 

Export Control Cooperation From Allies.

 

What To Expect From Xi's Third Term.

 

What To Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.

 

Have Americans, As Is Claimed, Been Conned?

 

Is A Major War To Come?

 

The United States Does Not Need To Beat China.

 

A candid look at the why two atomic bombs

 

What the situation looks like going forward

 

Revisiting the Paranoid Style in American Politics

 

The election could be a highly fluid situation

 

The Cost of Chaos review

 

Major Case Study:

The secret background of the attack on Pearl Harbor part two

 

Major Case Study:

The secret background of the attack on Pearl Harbor part one

 

Major Case Study: 

The origins of Trumpology

 

Why Washington should push for a resolution to a disastrous war

 

The racist lie that is fueling the US terrorist attacks

 

Includes update 20 April 2019:  Why Robert Mueller is ending his report

 

How Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati officials influenced Trump to strike a bargain with Putin

 

What Robert Mueller Knows

 

The Trump/Russia investigation what can be said today

 

Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making of Eastern Europe

 

American Ascendance P.1: Asia in the New Spatial Order

 

American Ascendance P.2: The China Blockade

 

American Ascendance P.3: The Japan Blockade

 

American Ascendance P.4: Opium War

 

The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise Overview P.1

 

The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise Overview P.2

 

over the course of the Mexican Revolution

 

...glaring misadventures in Iraq

 

America at a Crossroads P.1:

The Truth about the Cold War

 

America at a Crossroads P.2:

Superpower Politics

 

America at a Crossroads P.3:

Anti-Americanism

 

America at a Crossroads P.3:

The Last 'WWIII'

 

Possible Future Conflicts from a US Point of View

 

V

 

Venezuela

Venice

 

 

The worsening situation will make 2015 a crucial year for Venezuela:

 

 

The history of Venice beyond 2021

 

 

W

 

Warsaw Pact

World - World Economy - History - Politics

WWI, see also First World War

WWII, see also Second World War

 

Warsaw Pact

 

The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part three

 

The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part two

 

The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact

 

 

World - World Economy - History - Politics

 

Requiem for Hyperglobalization.

 

The Hidden Driver of Modern History.

 

Sixty-Eight Countries Will Hold Elections.

 

Deglobalization.

 

The Farmer Who Feel the Heat First.

 

Infrastructure Is Remaking Geopolitics.

 

The Rest Of The World.

 

Why It Will Not Surprise.

 

The Rising Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.

 

Their Failure To Act Fast Enough On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.

 

Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting World.

 

The World Outside The Great Powers.

 

Why It’s So Hard To Forecast Authoritarian Aggression.

 

How To Reduce The Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.

 

There’s No Such Thing As A Great Power.

 

The State Of The World.

 

The World To Come.

 

Why The World Still Needs Trade.

 

Political Violence In Authoritarian Societies.

 

The Defence Of Global Order And Address Global Crises.

 

Make The Center Vital Again.

 

How To Survive A Great-Power Competition.

 

Managing A Multipolar World.

 

How The Fight For Resources Is Upending Geopolitics.

 

Tackling The Opportunity For Change.

 

Counter Autocracy.

 

2023 Anual Forecast.

 

The World Has Changed.

 

Those Who Cannot Remember The Past Are Condemned To Repeat It.

 

Understanding The World By Means Of A Geopolitical Approach.

 

This Highlights A Socio-Economic Challenge That The World Needs To Tackle Before It Gets Worse.

 

The Long-Term Trend Is Concerning.

 

What To Expect In 2023.

 

Remaining Robust Enough When Malign Actors Are Denied Access.

 

The World Faces A Zeitenwende.

 

Let Us Be The Last Generation To Do So.

 

The Profound Economic And Financial Shift.

 

The Direction Of The World Economy.

 

The Global Effects Going Forward.

 

What the situation looks like going forward

 

China's pursuit of greatness

 

Economics and real-time revolution

 

From East to West and back to East?

 

A few countries to look out for the next six months

 

How the end of an age is not the same as the end of history

 

Major Case Study:

The outlook of the world in 2020

 

What 2020 will bring P.2

 

What 2020 will bring P.1

 

From new economics to new politics

 

Major Case Study:

North and South Korea, China, Russia, the US, Iran, Mexico, India, Central and South America, Turkey, and so on

 

A look at other developments going forward in 2017

 

Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin America

 

Apocaliptic Politics During the 20st Century and Beyond

 

World Finance

Introduction

 

World Finance Today:

Worldwide History of Stock Markets and Economics

 

World Finance Today:

Worldwide History of Inshurance Risks

 

World Finance Today:

Worldwide History of the Housing Bubble

 

Following an assessment of current finance crash; the international situation, Europe, China/Japan and S.America, plus Korea…Continue...

 

The Genetics of Finance: Putting the Credit Crisis in Perspective

 

WWI, see also First World War

 

The tribulations and consequences of the Treaty of Versailles

 

Why World War I was pivotal to the creation of the modern Middle East

 

Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the Manchurian episode

 

A new investigation why the First World War broke out

 

The Real Russian Origins of the First World War

 

Major Case Study:

What led to the Frist World War P.1

 

Major Case Study:

What led to the Frist World War P.2

 

Major Case Study:

What led to the Frist World War P.3

 

What led to the First World War P.4

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.1:

The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.2:

The Arab question and the ‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.3:

The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.4:

The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.5:

The Syrian question

 

From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle East P.6:

The Paris Peace Conference deliberations

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.6:

The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’, and the British

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.7:

The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon today

 

From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle East P.8:

British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3

 

The true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4

 

WWI's Religious Ideology

 

From Colonization to de-Colonization

 

…newly researched documents...took this a step further

 

From Shandong to Versailles: China's participation in the First World War

 

Why We were Entering a Century of Genocide

 

The second First World War

 

The conspiracy theory that gave rise to Hitler:

 

P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231

 

Investigating the never-ending Great War

 

WWII, see also Second World War

 

 

From Hitler to Stalin P.1

 

From Hitler to Stalin P.2

 

From Hitler to Stalin P.3

 

From Hitler to Stalin P.4

 

From Hitler to Stalin P.5

 

The Nazi Documents P.1: The Russian Connection

 

The Secret War Between the Allies:

The Final Secret of WWII: The Murder of Hitler

 

The Secret Archive

 

Hess/Hitler overture to England

 

The Mistake of Peter Longerich

 

Alternative Histories of the 20 to 21 Century we start with the making of WWII today

 

…the Cold War: Continue:

 

Comment

 

Asia and Cold War

 

The Vatican’s War P.1

 

The Vatican’s War P.2

 

The Vatican’s War P.3

 

From Belgium to Kosovo Research

 

The Vatican’s War P.4 

 

The Vatican’s War P.5

 

The Nazi/Vatican Connection P.6

 

The Valkyrie Debate P.1

 

The Valkyrie Debate P.2

 

The Valkyrie Debate P.3

 

Protestant Nazi Hopes P.1

 

Protestant Nazi Hopes P.2

 

Protestant Nazi Hopes P.3

 

Protestant Nazi Hopes P.4

 

Protestant Nazi Hopes P.5: Conclusion

 

Z

 

Zionism

 

 

The way to Zionism Part Three

 

The way to Zionism Part Two

 

The way to Zionism

 

Esoterica going Mainstream

 

Esotericism, Freemasonry, and Conspiracy

 

main aspects of Western esoteric traditions have their foundations in antiquity

 

Case Study:

From Numerology to Magic and Esoteric Christianity

 

Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.1

 

Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.2

 

Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.3

 

New History of the Hermetica P.1: Hermes Times Three

 

New History of the Hermetica P.2: The Sabian Myth

 

New History of the Hermetica P.3: Middle East Disporea

 

The Rosicrucians

 

Freemasonry

 

The Occult Revival in America P.1

 

The Occult Revival in America P.2

 

Alleged New Age Religions

 

the Goetheanum

 

Harry Potter 6 and Gnosis: The Search for the Higher Self

 

founder of Scientology L.R. Hubbard to create a 'moonchild' by means of 'Magic'

 

first ever history of this idea rooted as it is, in Paracelsian Magic

 

Reincarnation: The Invention of a Modern Myth

 

New Age or Emerging Religions?

 

The 1920's Vinland Map - A Legend is Born

 

Alternative History books:

 

The Nazi Occult Myth

 

ABC News UFO's: The Day After

 

UFO's as Conspiracy Theory

 

From Esotericism to Pop Culture

 

From Esotericism to Pop Culture P.2

 

Update

From Aleister Crowley to Scientology

 

Case Study:

New Religious Movements –

Rudolf Steiner/Waldorf Schools P.1 of 2

 

We successfully questioned the term "Gnostic" and "Gnosticism"

 

Dan Brown's two recent books

 

Case Study:

New Religious Movements -

Spiritualism P.1

 

Case Study:

New Religious Movements:

Spiritualism P.2

 

Case Study New Religious Movements

Spiritualism P.3

 

Case Study New Religious Movements

Spiritualism P.4

 

Case Study New Religious Movements

Spiritualism P.5

 

Case Study New Religious Movements

Spiritualism P.6

 

P.1: The Making of Spiritism

 

P.2: Christian Spiritist Conversion

 

P.3: To England Now

 

P.4: Occult Orders

 

P.5: Taming the Wild Spirits

 

P.6: Revelation of the Revelation

 

P.7: Text Related Occult Conversions

 

P.8: An Occult Sociological Profile

 

P.9: Phenomena on Trial

 

P.10: Theosophical Fights

 

P.11: Nazis and The Occult

 

P.12: Cults of the Self

 

P.13: The Esoteric

 

P.14: The Never Ending Mystery?

 

P.15: Psychic Androginity

 

P.16: Cosmological Searches

 

Comment: The Forgotten Monarchy Discovered

 

From Robert Anton Wilson to the Da Vinci Code Prank: The Californian Illuminati

 

Introducing H.P. Blavatsky

 

H.P.Blavatsky and her 'Masters' of the Theosophical Society

 

Search For Astral Projection: The Investigation

 

The Hodgson Report

 

The Hodgson Report P.2

 

The Hodgson Report P.3

 

Finding the Theosophical Masters and Mahatmas

 

Blavatsky's Final Work

 

After Blavatsky P.1: Krishnamurti, the Fashioning of a Mahatma

 

After Blavatsky P.2: Fashioning the Future Race

 

Race and Literary Nationalism

 

Enter Scientology:

 

Investigating, UFOs Seeing is Believing?

 

The Secret of the Cabalah/ Qabbalah

 

New History of Jewish Kabbalism

 

Establishing the Christian Kabbalah, P.1: Rewriting Frances A. Yates

 

Establishing the Christian Kabbalah, P.3: F.M. van Helmont

 

Zosimos of Panopolis and the Book of Enoch

While somnambulist ventures like the Course in Miracles have been well researched

 

The Key of Solomon P.1: The Making of Witchcraft

 

The Key of Solomon P.2: Occult Science

 

The Key of Solomon

P.3: Magical Revival

 

Conspiracy Theories P.1

 

Conspiracy Theories P.2

 

Conspiracy Questions or Answers?

 

The Rise and Fall of the Silver Shirts

 

auf Deutsch

Towards "a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.1

 

auf Deutsch

Towards "a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.2

 

auf Deutsch

Towards "a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.3

 

Neoplatonism, Philology and Nationalism

 

Geschichtliche Entwicklung des Ariermythos

 

The True Story Behind "The Aquarian Gospel" Movie:

 

Conspiracy Theories

 

DaVinci Code Matrix

 

From Invented Witchcraft To The Carlos Castaneda's legacy

 

The 'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman:

 

The 'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman P.2:

 

Inventing The Mormon Tradition

 

Major Case Study:

Paganism and Early Christianity in N. Europe P.2

 

The Positive Thinking Movement P.2

 

Case Study:

Ungern P.1: The Revolution

 

Self Help Books as Popular Culture: Introduction 

 

Self Help Books as Popular Culture P.1

 

Self Help Books as Popular Culture P.2

 

 

 

 

Searchbox

 

 

20 November 2024: The new US administration will surely face significant new challenges to U.S. nuclear deterrence. The United States and its allies simply do not have the luxury of waiting another three years for these challenges to be met. Deterring Nuclear Dictators like China, Russia, and North Korea.

 

20 November 2024: European colonialism, therefore, played a critical role in shaping the modern Middle East and the conditions that led to the founding of Israel. The legacy of colonialism, with its arbitrary borders, foreign intervention, and the imposition of external political models, has left a lasting imprint on the region, contributing to the ongoing conflicts and struggles for national identity and sovereignty. History and Current Problems of Israel.

 

19 November 2024: Prodded by Beijing China’s ambassador to the US has been rushing to connect with potential Trump administration officials after several years of struggling to get meetings with Republicans in Washington. China Rushes to Connect with Potential Trump Officials.

 

19 November 2024: Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration reported to rethink its uncritical support of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, clarifying and restricting how and when that government can use American weapons and munitions. And it must diplomatically reassure the region’s other actors that the United States will be a moderating influence rather than an aggravating one. Without these changes, the potential for escalation in the Middle East will only grow. Israel’s Latest Wars are Changing Tehran’s Strategic Calculations.

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19 November 2024: Years after one of the worst spills in history, companies in search of discoveries are drilling even deeper into the seabed the industry is haunted by the explosion on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig in BP’s Macondo prospect. Over 87 days, 134mn gallons of oil poured into the northern Gulf, killing up to 800,000 seabirds and almost wiping out the Rice’s whale Now the GranMorgu project development will involve the development of the Sapakara South and Krabdagu oil discoveries, off the coast of Suriname. The Making of a New Oil Spill.

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19 November 2024: Some of our worst traits will enable us to exhibit some of our best: the human instinct toward self-interest, even at the expense of others, may prepare us for accepting AI’s transcendence of the self. War and Peace in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.

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18 November 2024: Even when the facts don't support the claims, enemies of Israel will use classic inversion and denial to turn the narrative - baselessly accusing Israel of genocide and using human shields. The very things Hamas and its counterparts do - they use civilians to shield operatives to keep Israel from striking and their very reason to exist is that they want to wage genocide against the Jews. Israel Mostly Stands Alone.

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18 November 2024: Trump’s imminent return to the White House is making Europe nervous, and we can already see the effects. For one, Brussels is changing its spending policies to redirect tens of billions of euros to defense and security. Why America’s Mission Was to Spread Freedom or the End of its 'Ancien Régime'.

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18 November 2024: Chinese leaders were surprised to learn that the Roman Empire was still intact and functioning as a unified state at a time when China had split into three rival kingdoms. The prospect of establishing political and commercial contacts with Rome was, therefore, attractive. When the Romans Went to China.

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17 November 2024: The defense pact signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un obligates both countries to provide immediate military support to one another if either is attacked. The document additionally urges both nations to engage actively in the pursuit of a "just and multipolar new world order" and to ramp up collaboration across several domains, encompassing peaceful nuclear energy, space exploration, food security, as well as trade and economic aspects. Keir Giles has penned a book on Russia titled 'Who Will Defend Europe?: An Awakened Russia and a Sleeping Continent.'

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17 November 2024: Whatever happens after January 20, 2025, it will be critical for Ukraine to get further funds and weapons in the remaining weeks of this year. If Trump does try to talk to Putin, Ukraine will need to be in the strongest position possible on the battlefield. Ukrainians know that it won’t be easy to ensure Washington’s continued support. Tell Trump that a Russian Victory Could Hurt Him.

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16 November 2024: Chinese authorities attempt to keep a lid on the Zhuhai incident where 35 people died. The BBC reported that security guards began photographing the journalists and making calls after learning its news team was present. A video shows a man in civilian clothes interrupting the newscast, angrily demanding to see a press card, grabbing the BBC correspondent, and trying to block the camera lens.

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16 November 2024: Beijing has already Prepared for Trump’s Return: China Is Readying for Known Challenges and Unknown Risks.

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15 November 2024: In October, China and India reached an agreement on patrolling a stretch of their long-disputed shared border. The deal brought an end, for the time being, to a four-year standoff in the high mountains of the Himalayas that had severely strained ties between the two countries. It also allowed Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping to meet in Russia and hold talks for the first time in five years. In 2020, a bloody confrontation in the Galwan Valley left dozens of soldiers dead and led to a deep freeze in bilateral relations between the two Asian giants. Himalayas Deal.

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14 November 2024: The profound effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First World War can be seen echoing through the history of the 20th century. Several instances like the debates surrounding the Sykes-Picot agreement have shaped the Middle East. But none was as important as the machinations of Sharif Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931. The Making of the Middle East.

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14 November 2024: After Trump's win, Putin said that a struggle for a new world order was underway. Putin said, ‘Former structure of the world is irrevocably disappearing ... a serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding’ to form a new one. An Opening for Russia to Shatter Western Unity.

 

- The Saudi Arabian desert turned into a winter landscape for the first time in its history:

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- A new Kristallnacht in Europe: Pogrom in Amsterdam against Israeli football fans that led to 62 arrests and seven Israelis missing. What Happened?

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- Coordination between Washington and Taipei would complicate Chinese plans for a blockade or invasion and may prompt Beijing to reexamine whether the costs of continuing on its current path outweigh the benefits. Even if China does not abandon its gray-zone playbook, such steps would, at the very least, better prepare Taiwan for a conflict that such coercion has made all the more likely. China’s Gray-Zone Offensives Against Taiwan.

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- Allies that feel exposed may make choices that damage their own security and that of the United States. Deploying U.S. troops for domestic law enforcement, border patrol, or deportations may fracture the bond between the American public and the military, as well as sow discord within the military itself. The National Security Imperative for a Trump Presidency.

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- Beijing is launching a stimulus largely to repair confidence. And if the U.S. is declaring a second trade war, it might undo those stabilization measures on the confidence side, certainly with foreign investors and possibly with Chinese households. So that would be a rather Big Problem for Beijing.

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- Were Hamas to be forced to leave Doha, it is unclear where they would base their political office. Key ally Iran would be an option, although the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July suggests they may be at risk from Israel if based there. What Next after Qatar Suspends Mediator Role.

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- Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah are unlikely to destroy it. Israel has been using the tactic against the group for decades. Rather than collapsing, Hezbollah has proved both resilient and adaptive. Attempts at leadership decapitation have produced more violence, organizational expansion, and increased Iranian influence. The Sordid History of a Flawed Tactic.

 

- How to Account for the Antisemitism in the Era of 'Gaza' and its Historical Context:

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- U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between China and North Korea could backfire, potentially strengthening their autocratic alliance. To secure meaningful cooperation from China, it would be more effective for Washington to keep its requests specific, realistic, and geared toward achieving shared interests. A more focused approach is likely to yield better results. How to Make Beijing a Partner in Restraining Pyongyang.

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- North Korean Defectors Boost Ukraine's Fight Against Kim Jong Un's Troop.

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- International actors need to find a political settlement that begins with a cease-fire to the bloody wars in Gaza and Lebanon. The next step should be to bring in the governments linked to the axis to negotiate a broader settlement that takes into account the true nature of the power dynamics in the region. Without such an inclusive approach, regional conflict in the Middle East is destined to persist, to the detriment of future generations. Israel is Underestimating Iran and its Allies.

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- During his campaign, Trump promised to bomb Mexico and to deport legal immigrants, called opposition politicians the “enemies from within,” and claimed that migrants were “poisoning the blood” of the country. Despite all this - or perhaps because of it - Trump won a popular majority. When the rest of the world looks at Trump, they will no longer see an aberrant exception to American exceptionalism; they will see what America stands for in the twenty-first century. Trump’s Reelection Will Redefine U.S. Power.

- Iran fired two of the largest barrages of ballistic missiles ever at Israel this year. Even the world’s best defenses don’t always stop them.

 

- A deadly axis of hostile anti-American and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined to challenge U.S. global primacy. Russia, China, and North Korea are nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated geopolitical flashpoints in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific could converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances, and firm deterrence will be needed to meet this growing threat. North Korean Troops Mark a New Escalation.

 

- Archaeologists exploring the interior of the Karazhartas Pyramid have made several intriguing discoveries. At the heart of the mausoleum lies a sarcophagus structure, surrounded by granite stones. Inside the sarcophagus, researchers unearthed the skull of a local ruler, providing a fascinating glimpse into the identity of the individual interred within.

This grand structure measures approximately 65 feet by 98 feet and rises to a height of about 5 feet at its apex.

- China-based hackers penetrated the networks of U.S. telecom providers and might have penetrated the system. The Worldwide Reach of Chinese Spies.

 

- On an Island that is not dissimilar to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, China (in Hainan) has built an ability to project power with multiple types of capabilities; air, missile, militia, ships, and submarines. The Need to Forestall a Chinese Attack?

 

- China seeks to radically reshape the international order in the long term while maintaining it in the short term. However, by stoking tensions with the West, Xi is weakening China’s economy and complicating its geopolitical ambitions. Moldova’s pro-Western president wins vote overshadowed by Russian meddling claims.

 

- Over the decades, Israel has tried, whether through military or political action, to shape Lebanon according to its interests. It’s repeatedly failed, with its actions sometimes helping to create new foes, as was the case with Hezbollah. Today, Israel’s willingness to try to influence internally. Lebanese politics seems to be no different: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to destroy the country unless it pushes Hezbollah. To Know the Context.

 

- Russia is preparing strikes on nuclear infrastructure facilities in the territory of Ukraine. Two devices that ignited in Europe, officials say, were part of a covert operation to put them on cargo or passenger aircraft. As the Ukrainian News Agency earlier reported, the aggressor country Russia uses Chinese satellites to photograph Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which may indicate preparations for strikes on them. How the War in Ukraine Could Go Nuclear.

 

- A suspected Russian arson attack on a DHL warehouse in Birmingham was a test run for future attacks on the US, Polish officials have said, after arresting some of the alleged criminals involved.

- More than 200 people have lost their lives after the flooding swept through streets, turning walkways into rivers and trapping people in their homes and on the roofs of cars.

 

- American political leaders: Undermining the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s undermining the winner's legitimacy pays political dividends. American democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s Era of Violent Populism.

 

- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the next Secretary General of NATO, warned Pyongyang’s involvement in the Ukraine war could mark the start of a “far darker” phase of the conflict.

 

- With growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, there are concerns over the broader impact of this alignment on East Asian security dynamics. U.S. officials echoed Zelenskyy's concerns, noting the gravity of North Korea's involvement and its potential to undermine stability in multiple regions. First-Ever Ukraine Clash with North Korean Troops Sparks Fears of Escalating Global Conflict.

 

- Ideas do not belong to specific places. They 'belong' wherever they happen to take root. Culturalist ideas developed in the human sciences have a resonance well beyond Europe or North America. Indeed they provide many of the intellectual resources for the construction of the Asia/West dichotomy on which the cultural politics of in this case Confucian/Asian democracy rests. There is also a case regarding the cluster of concepts that underpin 'Asian values' and 'Asian identity' as assembled very largely on the edifice of ' Asia ' studied by Western scholars. Singapore and Asia.

 

- Trump has won the chance to determine U.S. national security policy and will wield the impressive power embodied in the men and women now waiting to work for him. The Trump team has more than enough confidence. The world will soon learn whether it also has enough wisdom. What a New Term Means.

 

- Were Russia to falter in the war and start seeking an exit, countries outside Europe could be vital to the ensuing diplomacy. If negotiations yielded arrangements suitable to Ukraine, to Europe, and to the United States, then it would not particularly matter which country hosted the talks or which plan was their catalyst. As for the military help that China, Iran, and North Korea are lending, there may be ways to limit it on the margins or to raise the costs of providing it. How Ukraine Became a World War.

 

- Thousands were ordered to evacuate as a wildfire burns homes in the richest State in the US (it's not just the floods in Spain anymore) California. Based on available scientific evidence there is a probably worldwide, weather pattern change that is ongoing. However, climate change may also be a result of policy implementation and the incompatibility of capitalism with our finite resources, a narrative failure is also inhibiting our ability to imagine alternative futures.

 

In the cases of Malaysia, Java, Sumatra, and Borneo Imperial Japan argued that despite the vast lands and rich resources, the Japanese were not granting them any level or kind of independence, not even a false one, which they had granted to Burma or the Philippines. They also pointed out that the Japanese always openly addressed those regions as Japanese territories and colonies. The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere Part One of Two.

 

Japan was not an easy opponent to deal with. The discussion committee for the establishment of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere decided that considering the various situations the overseas Chinese population was representing, it would be wise not to employ a single policy for various situations, and it would be especially important to employ active control and utilization in dealing with the economically powerful individuals or groups within the overseas Chinese society, instead of just letting them do their businesses. The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere Part Two of Two.

China built a $50 billion military stronghold in the South China Sea.

 

A campaign of chaos conducted under the cover of an anti-Hezbollah offensive will only have limited political benefit to Netanyahu and his government. Israel Brings Its Gaza Strategy to Lebanon.

 

Hopefully, Xi will change course. He would bear much of the blame for preventing the Communist Party from fulfilling its pledges to make China a “moderately developed economy” by 2035 and a “strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist country” by 2049. Xi Jinping’s Axis of Losers.

 

We have learned to never underestimate the strategic advantage of a just cause. And we learned that free people will always refuse to replace an open order of rules and rights with one dictated by force and fear. What’s at Stake in Kyiv’s Fight for Freedom.

What Washington is doing with its military in the Indo-Pacific, creates several potential pathways to preclude Chinese efforts to overturn the status quo, increases the complexity of those contingencies, and induces uncertainty about which may be the most relevant. It will indeed be difficult to know whether any particular U.S. partner will prove willing to use or allow the use of military assets from its territory in a conflict. But that uncertainty is a feature, not a bug. Simply put, although the United States may not have full clarity about what role specific allies and partners will play should a conflict erupt, neither does China. The Return of Total War.

 

In today's uncertain moments, the secretary-general of the United Nations can explore and create opportunities for conflict resolution. After all the UN has the authority and credibility to play this role. And over the coming years, it may make all the difference between global war and peace. Can the United Nations Be Saved?

 

$1 Billion US Weapons System Lands in Israel Amid Preparation to Attack Iran.

 

The best outcome for the Middle East, and the world is two sustainable, representative, forward-looking visions. The worst outcome is two backward-looking regimes clinging to past grievances. The former may be difficult to achieve. But the consequences of the latter would be nothing short of catastrophic. The New Battle for the Middle East Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions.

 

The FBI announced it was investigating the leak of classified US intelligence documents about Israel's plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The claim that American-Iranian Tabatabai Leaked Israel's Iran Attack Plans has been disproven.

 

Seen underneath Rocket attacks on Tel Aviv

 

As Reported By The New York Times IDF names 6 Al Jazeera journalists as members of Hamas, Islamic Jihad after uncovering documents. Next on October 24, the IDF published further documents captured in Gaza that it said indicated close cooperation between Hamas and Al Jazeera, including papers in which the terror group advised the Qatari network not to criticize it, and in which the sides coordinated on concealing incidents of failed rocket launches.

 

During the most harrowing nuclear crisis in history, Kennedy assembled the ExComm to try to mitigate the danger McNamara would later cite. Although the world looks much different now than it did during the Cold War, with new rivals and alliances and a more complex set of imperatives guiding geopolitics, it is no less dangerous. Requiring that presidents consult with others before making the most fateful decision in human history would make the United States and the world a safer place. Presidents Shouldn’t Make the Biggest Decision by Themselves.

 

The reality is that anything the United States does to impose costs on China will upset Beijing. The only way to avoid that is to give it what it wants, which is territorial control over Taiwan, maritime control of the South China Sea, and economic, military, and political dominance in Asia. Washington cannot be afraid to make China pay for helping bad actors, especially when holding back lets Beijing pretend to be above the fray. The Military Logic of Beijing’s Growing Partnerships.

 

When President Xi Jinping attended the opening banquet of the Second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. As well as offering fine words about regional cooperation, Xi wanted to talk about history. ‘For millennia, the Silk Road had witnessed how countries achieved development and prosperity through commerce and enriched their cultures through exchanges,’ he told the delegations. Developing Modern China.

 

Today what previously was an important friction point on the roof of the world, has been greatly diminished. The disengagement of troops of India and China has started in Demchok and Depsang Plains in the Eastern Ladakh sector.

 

Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Burmese Mandalay People's Defense Forces, said China’s influence was a “reality," but that groups like his farther from the border could lead in the fight for Mandalay. Myanmar and Southeast Asia.

 

Israel launched airstrikes early Saturday on military targets in Iran in retaliation for a ballistic missile assault Oct. 1, officials said. There was no immediate information on damage in the Islamic Republic. Israel’s military described the attack as “precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” without immediately elaborating.

The feared Israel-Hezbollah war is happening, but it is remarkably one-sided so far. In September, Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies. It then commenced large-scale bombing of over 1,000 targets in Lebanon and stepped up its military campaign against Hezbollah leaders, culminating in the killing of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli forces have also crossed into Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure, and pushing its fighters away from the border.

Hezbollah has fought back. The militant group has launched drone attacks into Israel, including one on an Israeli military base that killed four people and another on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday home in Caesarea.

 

A subject we widely covered more than a decade ago suddenly (not long before a US election) gets the attention of the President of the USA who spoke out about it. In his address, Biden apologizes for past U.S. policy on boarding schools for Indigenous children. Thousands of children are estimated to have died. Many of the deceased are still to be identified. Many were physically, emotionally, and sexually abused, and not mentioned by President Biden, more than 950 died. See our previous parts; One, Two, Three, FourFive.

 

The Jewish state's massive military attack against key Iranian bases could ultimately be the final nail in the Islamic Republic's coffin.

 

Biden 'knew and encouraged' Israel to bomb Iran to 'deter further attacks'. Tel Aviv Issues a Chilling Ultimatum.

 

Israel heeded President Joe Biden’s counsel not to destroy the Iranian regime’s core strategic assets, lest Tehran lashes back with an attack on Saudi oil interests or U.S. troops. That could trigger a general war in the region at the height of a close and globally fateful U.S. election campaign. Biden reinforced those pleas with concrete shows of U.S. backing, such as the deployment of a defensive missile battery to Israel, and U.S. troops to operate it, and a B-2 strike on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel’s Attack on Iran.

 

A concerted strategy of international engagement to support free elections could blunt the march of illiberal populism, strengthen civil societies, help restore democratic vitality in pivotal countries, and yield the largest harvest of democratic transitions since the global democratic recession began. Once democracy regains its momentum, even entrenched dictatorships will be under pressure. The alternative is a continued authoritarian drift toward a world of increasing polarization, repression, conflict, and violence. How to End the Democratic Recession.

 

The Gulf states will not cut off ties with China except in narrowly scoped areas, and even then such decisions will always be open to renegotiation. Without serious efforts at mitigation in the form of sustained investments in both physical and cybersecurity, building massive data centers in non-allied countries increases the risks of intellectual property theft and misuse, especially if those centers host the weights of frontier models (the parameters that encode the core intelligence of an AI system). The Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy.

 

Why do Drone swarms hold enormous potential? Given the interest that major military powers are expressing toward this emerging technology, drone swarms are likely to eventually become a prominent feature of 21st-century warfare. Geopolitical Implications How Warfare Evolved.

 

The Philippine government estimates that more than 6,252 people have been gunned down by the police and "unknown assailants" in Duterte's "war on drugs". Rights groups say the numbers could run into the tens of thousands. The problem is, that evidence shows that many of them died without having anything to do with drugs. Former Philippine president Duterte has admitted that he kept a death squad. The squad was made of gangsters, adding that he would tell them "Kill this person, because if you do not, I will kill you now".

 

China, Iran, and Russia have declared war on American democracy. They’re doing a good job of mounting their attacks while Washington has not done enough to defend the country’s information space. Without a credible deterrence policy, these enemies will keep seeking to undermine the United States. How Russia, China, and Iran Seek to Spread Disinformation and Chaos in the United States.

 

U.S. diplomatic efforts are critical to stemming the escalating violence in Lebanon and reducing the risk of armed conflict between the United States and Iran. To get what it wants - and what the region needs - Washington should think smaller, crafting an agreement that makes up for what it lacks in ambition with elements tailored to quell each side’s most pressing anxieties. Israel has the upper hand right now and will want to press its advantage in pursuit of “total victory.”

Hezbollah has a weak hand, but to avoid the appearance of defeat, it will hold out for a cease-fire that results in Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and an end to airstrikes. The Least Bad Option for Lebanon.

 

It is a dangerous blunder to gullibly accept their show of bowing to the ostensible will of the people. And when popular grievances are used as a pretext for bad policy - or, even worse, as a pretext for democratic backsliding - it is politicians, not the citizenry, who are culpable. The Populist Phantom.

Surrounded by Italy on all sides, the Republic of San Marino, - the third smallest in Europe - has stubbornly clung to its independence over the centuries, even as revolutions and world wars swirled around it. And no, we’re not talking about Vatican City, but another microstate within Italy - San Marino, the world’s fifth smallest country, also considered the oldest country in Europe.

 

Humanity bestrides the planet, explores the cosmos, and continues to reshape itself because humans are the world’s most inventive, adaptable animal. But it will take more than a bit of inventiveness and adaptability to cope with the unintended future consequences of the family and fertility choices being made today. Surviving a World Gone Gray.

 

Turkey and Syria also have overlapping interests in limiting the growth of Syrian Kurdish separatists. Syrian President Bashar Assad wants to regain control of the territory he lost in the northeast, and Ankara wants to weaken Kurdish separatism in Syria because it poses a threat to Turkey. Ankara has its work cut out for it, and Tehran will not give up without a fight. Iran’s Losses Could Be Turkey’s Gains.

 

After more than two and a half years of fighting, most polling shows Russians generally displaying support, or at least acquiescence, to the war, though some dents appear to be showing. In the highly censored online environment, there are few complaints about the extraordinary rates of Russian losses, let alone expressions of sympathy for Ukrainians. Yet people do worry openly when the war affects their self-interests. Putin’s Greatest Weakness.

 

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders Friday that the U.S. is concerned about China's “increasingly dangerous and unlawful” activities in the disputed South China Sea during an annual summit meeting, and pledged the U.S. will continue to uphold freedom of navigation in the vital sea trade route. To the Members of ASEAN Belong Among Others also China and India the Two Most Populous Countries in the World.

 

Ultimately, Iran’s capabilities are less important to the outcome of the conflict than the U.S.-Israeli relationship. The past year may have tested their ties, but it has yet to fully break them. This means that Washington will likely accept any Israeli response, which we believe will yield some restraint, however small it may be. Israel’s ideal scenario is the elimination of Iran. But an acceptable, second-best goal is to make certain the anti-Israel factions are gone. Israel can't change the reality of Iran’s existence, but perhaps it thinks it can change the way it interacts with Hamas and Hezbollah. Gaming out Israeli and Iranian Retaliation.

 

A recent wave of suspected Iranian-ordered attacks include a hand grenade thrown at the Israeli Embassy in Stockholm and a Spanish politician shot in the face in broad daylight.

As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has learned from more than 20 years of experience that US pressure is something he can withstand, if not ignore. Netanyahu knows that the US, particularly in an election year, will not take action that forces him to divert from his chosen course (and believes, in any event, that he is fighting America’s enemies too). Yet Biden Called Netanyahu ‘a Bad F-Ing Guy’.

 

For Iran’s leaders, the sudden exposure of its vulnerabilities may fuel an increased appetite for risk - risks that they may hope will compensate for mounting failures and prevent future ones. Yet a change to its nuclear doctrine is unlikely to resolve the Islamic Republic’s strategic dilemmas. A move toward a nuclear weapon would likely bring conflict in the short term. Iran’s Year of Living Dangerously.

 

In the context of a possible attack on Iran by Israel, the US deploys the THAAD anti-ballistic missile system to Israel with US troops that will go to Israel to operate it.

 

The Israeli army took reporters to what they said was a Hezbollah tunnel shaft some 219 yards (200 meters) from a UN post in southern Lebanon on Sunday (October 13).

 

History is replete with the remains of empires that were imprisoned by habit. From the Romans to the Habsburgs, fighting continual wars on multiple fronts against multiple foes led to mounting debts and eventually to irreversible decline. U.S. foreign policy today risks meeting the same fate. How the Next President Can Make Change in a System Built to Resist it?

 

China is holding military exercises around Taiwan, in what it calls a "stern warning" against those seeking "independence" for the self-ruled island. Taiwan's Ally, the US, Says it is Monitoring the Drills.

 

Many in the West may be reluctant to face the truth: that the past year has only made nuclear weapons a more attractive tool for the Iranian regime’s own survival. Iran’s Nuclear Tipping Point.

 

Armed and masked Palestinians seen on trucks loaded with international humanitarian aid, blocking the aid entering Gaza through the Israeli Kerem Shalom Crossing in the southern Gaza Strip.

China launched a large-scale, one-day military drill Monday that simulated a blockade of Taiwan. The exercise, code-named “Joint Sword – 2024B,” involved the People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLA Air Force, PLA Rocket Force and China Coast Guard. The drill was a response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech, in which he asserted Taiwan’s independence from China. The Election of William Lai.

 

After Israel’s success in eliminating Hezbollah’s military and political leadership, Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, informed Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati of the party’s readiness to withdraw to north of the Litani River. He also authorized the head of the Amal Movement, Nabih Berri, who has been parliamentary speaker since 1992, to negotiate arrangements on behalf of Hezbollah to stop the war, paving the way for placing the party under the mantle of the Amal Movement, which would be a major shift in the balance of power among the Shiites of Lebanon. The Group Falsely Believed Its Domination of Lebanese Politics was Permanent.

 

At the moment, the escalation of the war in Lebanon, as well as Israel’s resolve to retaliate against Iranian strikes, is obscuring the divisions regarding the West Bank. But those differences form a critical fault line. Israel’s Hidden War.

 

Many young Russians will learn to do two things simultaneously: adapt to the rules of the system but still think another way. Eventually, the external political environment will change, and when that happens, this widespread double consciousness could allow them to reject the stifling system they have known. Putin’s Children.

 

The likely prospect is that even a wider conflict would remain constrained by the limitations of distance, diplomacy, and strategy that have shaped the war that is already underway. Iran and Israel Face Limitations that Make Massive Escalation Unlikely.

 

Decades of ambiguity and compromise have left neither Taiwan China nor the United States fully satisfied. But almost by definition, any outcome that fully satisfied one party would be unacceptable to another, so Washington’s goal should be to find a status quo that all sides can live with. It’s a fine balancing act, but that is what diplomacy is all about. How to Avert Catastrophe at the World’s Most Dangerous Flash Point.

 

Israeli military forces discovered state-of-the-art Russian weaponry during searches of Hezbollah militants' bases in southern Lebanon.

 

Rather than worrying about the emergence of a new Cold War, Washington should work to build a new global diplomatic-security concert, toward which a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty can be an important step. The Real Purpose of a U.S.-Saudi Security Agreement.

 

Earlier UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a video statement marking a year since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of all hostages.

Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar the architect of the worst atrocity conducted against Jews since the Holocaust, has been killed by Israel.

The dynamics created by Yahya Sinwar’s killing can be leveraged toward a ceasefire, this could have implications for ending the war in Lebanon. Such a shift would deprive Iran of two of its most valuable regional assets and, in doing so, diminish its pernicious influence in the region. The Control of Gaza, Hostage Release, and Ceasefire Talks.

 

European businesses’ inclination toward SEZs, which rely on the largesse of their respective governments, reflects a growing caution about escalating geopolitical risks. When businesses are squeamish, it usually indicates a belief that global tensions will continue to rise, not fall. Past Changes, Future Problems.

 

For decades, Russian exports centered on raw materials, primarily oil and gas, with the European Union as the key buyer. Oil revenues directly funded Moscow's budget, making the halting of exports a potential pressure point on the Kremlin. The Rise of Russia's Shadow Fleet.

 

The Silk Road may have formally opened up trade between the Far East and Europe during the Han Dynasty, which ruled China from 206 B.C. to A.D. 220 Han Emperor Wu sent imperial envoy Zhang Qian to make contact with cultures in Central Asia in 138 B.C., and his reports from his journeys conveyed valuable information about the people and lands that lay to the West. But transporting goods and services along these routes dates back even further. How East and West Met.

The security of Europe now depends on significant multilateral cooperation to ensure that any path toward ending the war achieves the best possible result for Ukraine. But as attention shifts to negotiations, U.S. and European military support must not wane, for although a successful outcome can be achieved only through diplomacy, what is diplomatically possible will always depend on the military realities on the ground. Ukraine Must Turn the Tide Before It Can Negotiate.

 

Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, warned that "the future coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged" if the leak is confirmed. He emphasized that trust is crucial to the relationship. The Pentagon has stated it is looking into the leak reports. Documents Suggesting Britain Was Involved in Israel's 'Deadly Plot' to Strike Iran.

 

Israeli Beirut strikes today targeted Hashem Safieddine, a potential successor to late Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s aerial campaign in Lebanon is being conducted at an intensity comparable only to the first weeks of its bombardment in Gaza last year. Is Nasrallah's Successor Hashem Safieddine Eliminated In Israeli Strikes?

 

China’s defense-based relationship with Russia looks likely to continue, and as it does, it risks conflict even with its regional allies. Earlier this week, Vietnam criticized an attack by Chinese law enforcement forces on Vietnamese fishermen near a disputed island, while Malaysia has increased drilling operations in a disputed area. The South China Sea Dispute.

 

 

Iran's Khamenei gives a rare public sermon as Israel weighs counterstrike on Iran, he occasionally grasped the barrel of a rifle that stood to his left.

 

 

Rather than looking at the deeper meaning of October 7 - and realizing the unsustainability of the antebellum status quo, acknowledging the self-delusion involved in the effort to “manage” the Palestinian issue while riding the wave of economic growth, and appreciating the perilousness of pretending the Palestinians don’t exist, Israelis are being led to accept deeper institutionalized apartheid in the West Bank, permanent occupation in Gaza and perhaps south Lebanon, and growing autocracy and theocracy at home. Sadly, after a year of war, the long-term threats to Israel’s democracy and liberal values have only become graver. Israel’s Paradox Of Defeat.

 

As Israel bombs Hezbollah intelligence HQ in Beirut, Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei warns of confrontation.

 

 

On Saturday Hamas claimed responsibility for the shooting attack in Israel which killed 7, and injured 16. The attack in Tel Aviv took place just ahead of ballistic missile bombardment by Iran which shook the country as more than 200 missiles were Fired By Tehran Toward Israel.

 

Top US general in the Mideast arrives in Israel, as IDF preps response to Iranian attack Army strikes Hezbollah sites in Beirut. This while rallies in Israel urge the release of Israeli hostages are held nationwide, nearly a year after Oct. 7.

 

 

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a video statement marking a year since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of all hostages.

 

The Year 2024 Was A Record-Breaking One, But Not In A Good Way.

 

 

The successor to the eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, in turn was also killed during a recent Israeli attack on Beirut (Lebanon).

 

Qatari officials told the families of the Israeli hostages that Yahya Sinwar the leader of Hamas, had surrounded himself with hostages, in the headquarters of his tunnel system. From the outset, “the Gaza war” was a misnomer. Ever since Hamas’s heinous October 7 attack one year ago, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists, in what has already become one of the longest wars since Israel’s founding.

A new assessment by the Department of Homeland Security warns of possible threats from violent extremists driven by the heated political environment in the US as well as foreign and domestic threats from terrorist groups and others inspired by conflicts abroad. The Why And How As Described In The Report.

 

Russia is already engaged in a major conflict, but the northward shift of the Israeli-Arab war may lead Moscow to take steps it hadn’t anticipated. It’s unlikely, certainly, but the U.S.-Soviet alliance in World War II was also unlikely. Code Red Time In The Middle East.

 

On Monday 7 October Israel established a new closed military zone along its border with Lebanon.

 

On 9 October Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the Pentagon on Wednesday as the U.S. ally mulls how to respond to last week’s Iranian attack.

 

Washington Worries The Israelis Will Bomb Iran's Nuclear Sites. Can They?

It seems unlikely that Israel will strike Iran's facilities in its next round of retaliation, officials said, or that it could prevail without America's help.

A woman breaks down at the memorial to Yulia Waxer Daunov as family members and friends of the lost and kidnapped gather at the site of the Nova Festival to mark the first anniversary of the attacks by Hamas, in Re'im, Israel, on October 7. Israel's Strikes Are Shifting The Power Balance In The Middle East.

 

Fighting In Southern Lebanon Including Other Current Developments.

 

 

- It does show that the White House etc. does care, for example, an American father of Hamas hostage Itay Chen pushes the US, and Israel on ‘Plan B’ as negotiations falter Chen, a New York City native, said he and his wife have been given "unprecedented" access to the White House, the CIA, and other top agencies throughout the last year to discuss ongoing strategies to try and get the hostages out of Gaza. Chen met with national security adviser Jake Sullivan a dozen times, as well as CIA Director William Burns and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, they also held a weekly call with the White House.

 

The Israeli military has claimed that it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini, in “the area of Beirut.” Israel’s military also said it has expanded its “limited, localized, targeted operations” into southwestern Lebanon.

The Hezbollah terror group has dug a network of tunnels hundreds of kilometers long from Beirut to southern Lebanon. The purpose of the additional network is reportedly to enable the swift and covert movement of forces during a war against Israel.

 

Israel’s Invasion of Lebanon: A diplomatic push to avert a broader war in Lebanon fell apart after Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader. Security experts have said that a political deal is needed to restore calm.

The Limits of U.S. Influence: In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, President Biden stepped in to support Israel, counsel moderation and seek a lasting peace.

Behind the War of Words: When President Emmanuel Macron of France said over the weekend that countries should stop supplying Israel with weapons if they want a cease-fire, the reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel was swift and scathing.

A Pro-Palestinian Protest in London: The U.S. ambassador Jane Hartley was en route to the dedication of a climate-themed mural in London by Shepard Fairey, who created the iconic Obama ‘Hope’ poster. But then a protest began.

Selling Weapons to the Houthis: The Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was freed in a prisoner exchange with the United States, is negotiating with the militant group in Yemen.

Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) reported that one of its flights made an emergency landing after a mouse was discovered in a passenger's in-flight meal.

 

Underneath People stand near a pit after Lebanese soldiers destroyed a communication device in a Beirut parking lot:

 

Hezbollah's Ibrahim Akil, together with other senior figures listed below. killed in an Israeli airstrike was one of the Lebanese militant group’s top military officials, in charge of its elite forces, and had been on Washington’s wanted list for years.

 

 

Rather than bemoaning the emergence of the BRICS, the West should court those member states that have a stake in making sure that the grouping does not become an overtly anti-Western outfit intent on undermining the global order. The Battle For The BRICS.

 

Curiosity about the Chinese system does not mean that states can or will emulate it; China’s particular blend of a strong ruling party and elements of a capitalist market economy would be difficult to replicate elsewhere - China’s Soft Sell Of Autocracy.

 

Whether the next phase in Ukraine’s military campaign leads to a strong position at the negotiating table with Putin or a war stuck in grinding attrition - or even dangerous escalation - may ultimately depend on American voters’ choice in November. What the U.S. Election Means For Ukraine.

 

Iran’s Dilemma: How to Preserve Its Proxies and Avoid Full-Scale War

 

 

The rocket threat from Gaza led Israel to invest heavily in its “Iron Dome” defense system. It has also increasingly fortified the physical cordon around the Gaza Strip, including building underground barricades to prevent militants from tunneling underneath, which was nonetheless breached in the latest attacks. How It Came To The Gaza War.

 

The reason for Israel to strike Beirut was to kill Hassan Nasrallah who ordered strikes on Israel.

 

After a decade in which populism has surged all over the world, it has become clear how easy it is for political leaders to undermine democratic norms in service of their pursuits of power, especially during large-scale wars. Democracy must always be defensive, but first, it must be built. Israel must end the war and start building. The Fight For A New Israel.

Lebanon blocks Iranian plane from entering airspace after Israeli threats. Israel is on the brink of ground invasion.

 

Although Israel and Egypt disagree about how extensive the tunnels between Gaza and Egypt are, it is undeniable that Hamas has smuggled weapons through this route. Closer cooperation between the United States, Egypt, and Israel on shutting down those networks and better policing of Gaza’s Mediterranean coastline must be part of this equation. Egypt should also join Qatar in threatening to deny Hamas officials access to, and expel them from, their territory. Middle East Shuttle Diplomacy Should Be Backed by Meaningful Pressure.

 

Israel launched rare airstrikes in the center of Beirut early today (Monday), escalating the conflict with Hezbollah. Days after killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Israeli military said an airstrike in southern Lebanon had killed the leader of Hamas in the country. Israel also conducted strikes overnight against Houthi targets in Yemen. Reacting to the series of attacks on Monday, Hezbollah’s deputy secretary-general, Naim Qassem, said the group was prepared to repel an Israeli ground operation. Lebanon’s prime minister, however, cautioned that Israel’s attacks could create more than 1 million refugees and provoke the worst refugee crisis in the country’s history. Warning that Israel is waging war on seven fronts, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country was changing the regional balance of power.

 

US Secretary of Defence warns of ‘serious consequences’ for Iran if it attacks Israel or exploits tensions, and added that he supports 'Israel’s right to defend itself'. The fear is that this will be a long war. The Israel Defense Forces say a "limited, localized and targeted" ground operation is underway against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In a series of masterstrokes, Israel upended Hezbollah’s plans. Removing Hassan Nasrallah and senior commanders of the Iranian-backed group has temporarily deprived it of its ability to coordinate attacks. At the same time, the IDF’s use of airstrikes has affected Hezbollah’s arsenal. First images as sun rises over Beirut.

 

U.S. vice presidential candidates Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance - running mates of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, respectively - got their moment in the spotlight on Tuesday night when they faced off in what is expected to be the final debate ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.

 

Nearly 200 missiles have been launched into Israel from Iran, according to the Israeli military. The attack is a "significant escalation", the US has said - with Israel vowing to retaliate and Iran warning the barrage was "a glimpse of our capabilities". Upheaval In Lebanon.

 

Case Study: A year before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into World War II, Roosevelt exhorted the country to “build now with all possible speed every machine, every arsenal, every factory that we need to manufacture our defense material.” China’s rapid rearmament and the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are signs that the clouds are darkening. China’s Rapid Rearmament.

 

One does not have to believe in a “new Middle East” where Israel is fully accepted, trading, and engaging with its neighbors, to appreciate that there is a different, realistic path forward. That path is not one of perpetual occupation and perpetual war. But for now, the latter is the path Israel is taking. Where Will Israel’s Multifront War End?

 

One of Tehran's main concerns is that a conflict could destabilize the country as the regime approaches a historic leadership transition. However, if Israel’s retaliation is extensive, the conflict could spill over into the Gulf and potentially involve the United States. Iran Regional Position.

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To win a long-term, intensive multifront war, Israel would have to increase defense budgets; open new production lines for munitions; harden ist critical national infrastructure, such as energy and communication; and expand the IDF’s pool of recruitment to additional parts of Israeli society. Most critically, however, it will have to resolve the country’s political crisis, which has undermined ist resilience, encouraged ist enemies, and prevented Israel from developing the broader strategy it needs. The war’s most vital front is the eighth one: the home front. Israel And The Coming Long War.

 

The United States no longer enjoys primacy in Asia. But an effort to restore this primacy would be seen by many Asian countries as disastrously revisionist. Asia Has No Hegemon.

 

Supreme Court leak exposes (pro-Trump) chief justice meddling in Trump's cases

 

Much of the U.S. public and policy conversation is consumed by how to counter China and defend American workers, infrastructure, technology, and intellectual property against foreign threats. This focus downplays the domestic harms that measures ostensibly aimed at strengthening U.S. national security can have on the health and vibrancy of the United States democracy, society, and innovation ecosystem. The Case Against The China Consensus.

 

Countries worldwide need policies that encourage private competition by supporting young people and startups rather than protecting aging incumbents - oligopolies, billionaires, and tycoons who now dominate the American system. Restoring faith in capitalism will require learning from countries where the system still works for ordinary people. Switzerland, The US, Taiwan, And Vietnam.

On 17 and then again on 18 September Israel decided to blow up the pager devices carried by Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday out of concern its secret operation might have been discovered intending it to be the opening blow in an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah. The Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded, defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an elaborate ruse. The Question Is Why Now.

 

The world’s attention understandably remains focused on achieving a ceasefire that can end the killing and destruction in Gaza, bring hostages and prisoners home, and reduce the chance of a bigger, regional war. However, to succeed at all these aims, the states involved must be guided by a vision of the future that is clear, credible, and fair. A Two-State Solution That Can Work.

 

The United States and its allies are facing a crisis of deterrence. China is menacing Philippine vessels in the South China Sea and possibly readying its military for an invasion of Taiwan. But if the overriding goal is to avoid being bogged down in defending U.S. interests and thwarting aggression in the region Washington must recognize that deterrence demands accepting uncomfortable risks. How To Adapt An Old Theory To New Realities.

 

 

Three Americans were arrested in Venezuela over a plot to kill President Nicolás Maduro and destabilize the country. The Terrorist Plot.

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With more wealth sloshing around the Chinese economy, corruption has been on the rise in recent decades. But until now, no one has studied empirically the characteristics of the people whom the CCDI has found guilty of corruption nor tried to establish empirically the extent to which corruption has contributed to inequality. How Corruption Fuels Inequality In China.

 

Having long underestimated the far right, European foreign policy elites are slowly awakening to how it influences the EU. However, because they idealized the EU and imagined the far right as an alien entity, they misunderstood the relationship between the two. Europe Takes A Trumpian Turn.

 

Turkey's NATO membership comes under scrutiny because it plays an anti-NATO role. Following this, Erdoğan says he wants Ankara to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meaning China.

 

Findings published in the recent journal Science state that humans could have crossed from Asia into the Americas 26,000 to 19,000 years ago, through land connecting what is now Russia and Alaska, during the last ice age.

 

 

 

 

 

In contrast with the China shock that began in the 1990s, when the United States bore the brunt of a huge loss of market share and jobs in the manufacturing sector, the coming version will hit Europe hardest. China’s Double Threat To Europe.

 

Since the invasion, the United States’ strategy toward the war in Ukraine has been characterized by wishful thinking. If only Washington can impose enough costs on Putin, it can convince him to halt the war in Ukraine. If only it could send enough weapons to Ukraine, Kyiv could push Russian forces out. After two and a half years, it should be clear that neither outcome is in the offing. Why Putin Will Never Give Up In Ukraine.

 

 

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Arab identity still exists in a narrow sense as a reminder of past glory and a common culture. It is a symbolic force that has no mechanism for collective action across the region. Having lived under a succession of religious empires, Arabs did not undergo a necessary transformation to facilitate the triumph of nationalism. In the Arab region, religion remains the decisive social force and the driver of collective action. The Myth Of The Middle East Regional Powers.

 

The Arab people have criticized the Arab League since its founding for its persistent failure to shoulder its professed responsibilities. The organization no longer has a political role and has devolved into a diplomatic forum that avoids action on critical issues. Why The Arab League Failed.

 

 

Trump describes an America in decline, the laughingstock of the world. According to Trump, Putin’s Russia at least has some of the dignity strength, and self-respect that a great nation deserves. The Autocratic Allure.

 

Two posters disseminated by Hamas today vowing to blow up Israeli buses:

 

Ukraine’s Zelensky says incursion into Russia is part of a plan to end war, this is where Putin threatens WWIII.

 

Archaeologists discovered the remains of a 7,000-year-old road of an ancient city known as Soline which once connected the ancient city to the mainland.

 

Although Transjordanians are the Hashemite monarchy’s traditional power base, their role is weakening. Most are poor and susceptible to radical Islamic movements. Bedouins in southern Jordan are more likely to side with the Saudis than live in poverty. Jordan’s Uncertain Future.

 

Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled over the past decade reaching 44% of the total population, according to a new World Bank report released today. Based on a recent household survey covering the five governorates of Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon, and most of Mount Lebanon, the report finds that 1 out of every 3 Lebanese in these areas was poverty-stricken in 2022, highlighting the critical need to strengthen social safety nets and create jobs to help alleviate poverty and address widening inequality. Lebanon’s Place In The Middle East.

 

Some Arabs accuse Qatar of enforcing Washington's Middle East policy. In contrast, others accuse it of supporting terrorism, providing moral and financial support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and allying with Iran and Turkey - Qatar's Enigmatic Foreign Policy.

 

The situation in the West Bank is likely to deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by extension, Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with its neighboring kingdom. Meanwhile, the PA could break down, and if it does, it bodes ill for both Palestinian territories. The New Imbalance of Power In The Middle East.

The situation in the West Bank is likely to deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by extension, Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with its neighboring kingdom. Implications Of The War’s Spread To The West Bank.

 

The Palestinians must look forward to a successor who can finally overcome the tensions that have paralyzed Abbas’s leadership from the outset. Abbas’s successor will have to resolve this dilemma by unifying the fractured Palestinian polity, including incorporating Hamas into formal political structures, such as the PLO. The Fall Of Mahmoud Abbas.

 

A Split in the Cabinet. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly presented a plan to the security Cabinet calling for a cease-fire with Hamas in exchange for the release of hostages. Gallant warned that if no cease-fire agreement were reached, Israel could see an escalation into a multifront war, with potentially dire consequences. Meanwhile, the security Cabinet approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to maintain a military presence in the Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border as part of a cease-fire deal. Gallant voted against the proposed arrangement, while the national security minister abstained.

 

In recent years, the Arabian Peninsula has been home to a riff among Gulf countries, civil war, and the emergence of Saudi Arabia and UAE as influential regional actors. For The UAE, Change Is An Existential Threat.

 

Cambodia celebrated the return of 70 stolen Khmer ancient artifacts to the Southeast Asian nation from abroad.

 

 

The day Michael Chakma was forcefully bundled into a car and blindfolded by a group of burly men in April 2019 in Dhaka, he thought it was the end. Michael Chakma, a Bangladeshi Indigenous people's rights activist who was abducted and imprisoned five years ago, was found alive.

 

At various times in modern history, Turkey, Iran, and Egypt have presented themselves as regional powers in the Middle East, but they are not strong enough nations to avoid the political and military influence of more powerful countries. The Myth Of The Middle East Regional Powers.

 

Egypt has recently come into the spotlight again because of the significant  Gaza-Egypt border. Whereby seeing it as a whole Egypt’s history and geographic isolation have led many Egyptians to accept the country’s despotic leadership, believing that better days are ahead. But Egyptian society can flourish under the management of a bold leader – which it hasn’t had in decades. Egypt And The Country’s Historic Role In The Muslim World.

 

Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv, meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally Worried About The Prevailing Gloomy Narrative And The Sense That Ukraine Is Losing The War

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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If China truly wants to eclipse the United States as the world’s most dominant country, it will need to be able to coerce Japan and the Philippines and project power worldwide. It will need to control, or at least contest, the global commons. China probably believes that the absorption of Taiwan is the necessary first step. Yet when push comes to shove, it may decide otherwise. The Taiwan Fallacy.

 

Vladimir Putin was seen embracing a convicted killer who could know some of the leader’s most dangerous secrets. Russian state assassin Vadim Krasikov was released from a German prison as part of a prisoner exchange with the West. The 58-year-old was crucial to the deal to free Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, falsely accused of spying by Moscow. When the newly released Russians landed on home soil, Krasikov was the first off the plane and was met by Putin on a specially-lain red carpet. How Russia’s Growing Squad Of Saboteurs And Assassins Threatens The West.

 

Iran Is Concerned Because Israel Has Jericho Missiles Armed with Nuclear Weapons.

 

The United States warned Iran that its government and economy could suffer if Tehran were to launch a major assault on Israel. Last Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered more warships and aircraft to deploy to the Middle East to help defend Israel, with F-22 fighters arriving at a base in the region on Thursday. Mediators Push ‘Final’ Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Proposal.

 

As Ukraine forces advance into Russia Chinese warships are spotted in UK waters. HMS Richmond kept a "close watch" on the Chinese Navy task group as it passed the UK twice in three weeks.

 

Bangladesh’s interim government expresses ‘grave concern’ about attacks on religious minorities.

 

Israel does face real and dangerous enemies, which, like Hamas, are guilty of human rights abuses. But the trajectory Israel is on is not a winning one. On its current course, the state may morph into something that would destroy the humanist Jewish vision that inspired many of its founders and supporters around the world. It is not too late for Israel to save itself from its demise and find another way forward. The Undoing Of Israel.

 

The 12 medals that Chinese swimmers won in Paris will forever be tainted. Systemic doping among Chinese swimmers is to be investigated.

 

Many have concluded that the West has no stomach for conflict like Ukraine and will grow tired of supporting democracies facing an invading force if the economic costs are high. This conclusion is often overstated and probably underestimates American resolve. China Is In Denial About The War In Ukraine.

 

With Iran planning to attack Israel the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered a submarine armed with guided ballistic missiles to be sent to the Middle East.

 

Hegra, a thriving international trade hub in the first century AD, fell into a steady decline after it was annexed by the Roman Empire in 106 AD.

 

In American politics, labeling something a matter of “national security” automatically elevates its importance. In the language of foreign policy observers, national security questions, such as regulating weapons of mass destruction, are matters of “high politics,” whereas other issues, such as human rights, are “low politics.” How Everything Became National Security.

 

High-wire diplomacy on possible Iran retaliation in the Israel-Hamas war draws in the world.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iran's Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a restrained response to Israel's suspected killing of the leader of Hamas, advising against attacks on Israeli civilians, two senior Iranian sources said. The message, according to the sources, was delivered on Monday by Sergei Shoigu, a senior ally of the Kremlin leader, in meetings with top Iranian officials as the Islamic Republic weighs its response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Putin's Political Regime.

 

From Northern Ireland to Syria, the conditions that foment conflict are predictable, and there are signs that those conditions are growing increasingly visible in the United States.

 

The high- and middle-income world needs to start devoting the necessary resources to developing better vaccines, treatments, and other countermeasures immediately. Humanity will not get ahead of a pandemic-causing virus without such commitment. The World Is Not Ready For The Next Pandemic.

 

France, among others, is involved in multilateral diplomacy to prevent Iran from attacking Israel, and mediators are set to hold new Gaza cease-fire talks today at 07:44.

It is possible to imagine an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that, like Egypt’s military, becomes beholden to the status quo rather than regional upheaval. Outsiders often assume that because Iran’s rulers are hostile, they must be irrational, but the record suggests otherwise. A clear-eyed assessment of what the IRGC’s leaders genuinely fear and what they are willing to live with can illuminate pathways to reducing tensions. The Indomitable IRGC.

 

French and British foreign ministers visited Israel amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne refused to discuss Israel's response to a potential Iranian attack, calling it 'inappropriate'. Sejourne said, "Diplomacy must work now, diplomatic discussions must work now, and so we are working to prevent Iranian retaliation."

 

Through much of the past two and a half years of fighting in Ukraine, a popular view of Russian strategy has been that Putin is seeking to outlast his adversary by simply exhausting Ukraine and its Western partners. But Russia itself is not immune to exhaustion. For Kyiv, forcing Russia to burn through as many of its military resources as possible has become a way to hinder Putin’s goal of adapting the Russian economy to a state of perpetual war. Ukraine On The Offensive.

 

Deep in the Amazon rainforest lives a community whose hearts age more slowly:

 

A 'Stonehenge' was discovered in a US lake that's 5,000 years older than the British landmark. Even the initial Stonehenge remains one of these great mysteries, with experts around the world divided over why exactly the prehistoric monument was built. We do know that Stonehenge’s altar stone came from mainland Scotland or Orkney.

 

When some of the leading thinkers of the era declare that the AI revolution will be more significant than earlier industrial revolutions, it is easy to get caught up in their excitement. Many people in every generation wind up believing that their lives coincide with a uniquely important period in history. But the present moment might not be so unprecedented. The Next China Shock.

 

 

Gaza is militarily isolated, and the rhetorical support it used to get from the Arab world is no longer a given. This creates psychological questions, and psychology is essential to warfare. The Israelis are threatening to destroy Gaza’s leadership and to change the reality of Gaza. Ultimately, this requires occupation to work. The Israeli response must appear disproportionate, and the lack of automatic support disheartening. The Arab-Israeli Conflict Today.

 

 

Scientists discovered the Shroud of Turin dates back to when Jesus was alive using X-ray techniques.

 

If Israel cannot fully remove Hamas from power, demilitarize the strip, and back a new authority in Gaza, then Hamas will likely reconstitute itself and fight another day. That result would be no victory for Israel or the region. Israel must therefore take advantage of the present moment when it has the upper hand and Hamas is on the run. Lasting Victory Against Hamas Will Require Installing New Leadership in Gaza.

 

As the Indian prime minister meets Ukraine’s president on Friday, it marks a departure in New Delhi’s foreign policy.

 

Charlie the Elephant (the last elephant in S.A.) is finaly freed after 40 years in a South African zoo captivity.

 

AI recreates the real 'face of Jesus' from contemporary Shroud.

 

The key to Arab political transformation lies in religious reform. Nineteenth-century religious reformers such as Muhammad Abdu and Jamal al-Din al-Afghani realized the need to make Islam compatible with modernity. However European colonialism arrested the process of reform and ushered in Salafism, which served as the precursor to Islamic fundamentalism. The Birth And Development Of The Middle East Part One.

 

The Middle East Part One. The concept of power sharing has no roots in the Middle East. There is no evidence to suggest that the region’s countries take the minority question seriously. Ruling elites aim to subdue minorities and silence their demands rather than include them in the political process. Arabs did not undergo a necessary transformation to facilitate the triumph of nationalism. In the Arab region, religion remains the decisive social force and the driver of collective action. Myth Of The Middle East Regional Power.

 

The region is far from ready for successful uprisings, and political communities with a sense of national vision have yet to emerge. Resolution of the region’s outstanding interstate problems, such as the Kurdish and Palestinian questions, must precede any domestic change. Why Uprisings In The Middle East Fail.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As China continues to prioritize domestic development and security, it will likely strive to defend its economic and governance models while preserving space for global trade and investment. For a long time to come, U.S.-Chinese relations seem unlikely to return to the deep exchanges and cooperation that occurred at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Yet if a rapprochement is out of the question, China and the United States can still maintain stability and avoid catastrophe, whoever is in the Oval Office. Why Chinese Strategists See Little Difference Between Then And Now.

 

While the Oct. 7 attack appeared to unite Israelis, the ongoing war, the agonizing over the hostage ordeal, and frustrations with the government have created a domestic crisis that might be deeper than any Israel has experienced since its founding. Fading Chances Of Getting Hostages Back.

 

Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar as the new head of its political bureau, elevating the hardline militant to the group’s top post after the assassination in Tehran of its previous political leader.

 

If Israel still believes that integrating itself more fully into the Middle East by striking normalization deals with its Arab neighbors will marginalize Iranian-backed extremist groups and reduce the hostility toward the country, it must come to terms with the fact that its conflict with the Palestinians constitutes its most fundamental existential threat. The Time Is Right For An Israeli-Saudi Deal.

 

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus's oath as Bangladesh's interim government chief today:

NATO’s primary focus remains on Euro-Atlantic security, with the Indo-Pacific receiving relatively less attention. Consequently, while NATO will enhance its activities and partnerships in the region, it will not fully expand its mandate to Asia. This suggests that the United States and its Pacific allies should continue to expand initiatives like AUKUS and the Quad to address the China issue specifically. NATO’s Pivot Toward Asia.

 

The Arab Quint will expect the United States to pressure Netanyahu, and that will be necessary. But the irony is that the more Washington can point to in terms of Arab and Palestinian moves toward a deal, the greater leverage Biden will have over Netanyahu. Why The Time Is Right For An Israeli-Saudi Deal.

 

Bangladesh’s army, which has largely stayed out of politics since 2008, is now overseeing the formation of the interim government. Emboldened Islamist extremists, exploiting the unrest, staged attacks against the Hindu community this week. Democracy in Bangladesh may be tough to resuscitate. Hasina’s Troubled Legacy.

 

Over the coming months, as Russian momentum wanes, Ukraine will be preparing, reconstituting, and watching for chances. Success is never certain in war, but Ukraine will be better placed in 2025 than it has been this year to liberate territory and to convince Russia that the cost of the war is not worthwhile. How Kyiv Can Capitalize On Russia’s Waning Momentum.

One may have viewed smaller South Asian countries as irrelevant or at best marginal to their wider interests, they should understand that the likes of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are enmeshed in the broad geopolitical competition. Encouraging the participation of these smaller countries in larger frameworks and coalitions, such as the Quad, will help rein in Chinese influence and give these countries alternatives to the political and economic support offered by China. The End Of South Asia.

 

The United States’ goal should be to reframe the competition with China as a potentially positive-sum endeavor, with the two countries working together to support nonproliferation. Although there is no guarantee of success, starting a new U.S.-Chinese nuclear dialogue may ultimately protect East Asia from greater nuclearization. But first, Washington may have to play hardball. China’s Dangerous Nuclear Push.

 

Driving U.S. innovation should be Washington’s top priority when competing with Beijing. Given China’s size, economic heft, and scientific sophistication, the U.S. government has only limited capacity to obstruct its rival’s technological development. The United States should, instead, focus its energies on its innovative prowess and ability to stay at the head of the pack on AI and the next generation of critical technologies. The Limits Of The China Chip Ban.

 

First map of Earth's lost continent has been published

 

Without Ukraine, Russia is only an Asian power, swiftly losing ground to China. Kyiv cannot change Moscow’s strategic imperatives with victories on the battlefield, but it can deny Russia control of its lands. A rapid and significant supply of Western arms would give Ukraine its best chance to push back Russian forces and create the space and the time it needs to rebuild, refit, and deter another Russian advance. The Right Way To Quickly End The War In Ukraine.

 

No foreign-policy issue has been as divisive among Democrats as U.S. President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war. As the Democratic Party’s now-presumptive candidate for president, Vice President Kamala Harris has an opportunity to lay out a different course, and in doing so reenergize some of the key Democratic constituencies that have been angered and alienated by Biden’s nearly unconditional support for Israel’s indiscriminate destruction of Gaza. Harris In Action.

As negotiations continue, Hezbollah’s best bet is to refrain from acts that provoke a full-fledged war with Israel. So the group will likely continue to choose restraint and de-escalation, especially as Israeli operations in Gaza become less intensive. Why Hezbollah Doesn’t Want A War With Israel.

 

The Rwandan military has deployed to bilateral and multilateral missions in the Central African Republic, where they provide a counterweight to Russian security contractors. They are also at work in Mozambique, where they help protect a $20 billion gas investment by TotalEnergies, a large French company. Rwanda sends 5,900 troops to the UN’s peacekeeping forces, making it the largest African contributor. The Forgotten War In Congo.

 

Well-prepared Arson attacks on France’s rail network have taken place in what authorities are calling a "massive attack to destabilize the railway system," just hours before the 2024 Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is set to take place. So Who Did It?  

 

Paris Olympic torch.

 

Eurostar passengers face further disruption on Sunday after a series of arson attacks on the French rail network coincided with the opening weekend of the Olympic Games in Paris.

Large crowds have gathered for the funerals of the victims of yesterday's rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Twelve children and young adults were killed while playing football when a rocket hit a football pitch in Majdal Shams. Israel’s Next War.

 

Although Khamenei has greenlit expanding Iran’s nuclear program, he is not averse to negotiations over its scope, provided they reduce sanctions pressure on Iran. A deal that would end Iran’s nuclear program may not be in the cards, but a pragmatic agreement that would trade verifiable restrictions on the program in exchange for meaningful sanctions relief is very much imaginable. A More Normal Iran?

Although the tougher line with China demonstrated the United States’ leverage, it was episodic and uncoordinated with allies. As a result, Beijing was able to cast itself as a more predictable partner to much of the world, while the supply chain disruptions caused by trade disputes and decoupling created new inefficiencies - and drove up costs - in the global economy. Foreign Policy for the World.

 

Predictions of the dollar’s demise have greatly exaggerated the currency’s weakness, a fact made clear by its remarkable endurance. Analysts have warned for years that the dollar will lose out to other currencies, and yet none of them has displaced it. Consider the euro, whose inauguration in 1999 seemed to herald the end of the dollar’s unrivaled power. The eurozone was, after all, an economic area that stood toe to toe with the United States in terms of economic and financial market size. It had an independent central bank, and its members generally followed the rule of law. Why The Dollar?

 

A reputation for resolve is one of the hardest things for leaders or states to control. Any assessment of U.S. adversaries that does not carefully examine their psychology, the different ways they come to conclusions about the United States, is doomed to be inadequate. The Credibility Trap.

 

The amazing true story of how British intelligence penetrated and practically operated Nazi Germany's spy network within the British Isles. Called the Double-Cross System or XX System was a World War II counter-espionage and deception operation of the British Security Service (MI5). Nazi agents in Britain – real and false – were captured, turned themselves in, or simply announced themselves, and were then used by the British to broadcast mainly disinformation to their Nazi controllers. The Double-Cross System.

 

Nine months of Israeli air and ground combat operations in Gaza have not defeated Hamas, nor is Israel close to vanquishing the terrorist group. On the contrary, according to the measures that matter, Hamas is stronger today than it was on October 7. Why Israel’s Failing Strategy Makes Its Enemy Stronger.

 

Foreign intelligence has always preyed on the lonely and romantically vulnerable, from the West German women targeted during the Cold War by East German “Romeo” spies to the French diplomat who believed that his lover, a Chinese man, was a woman who had birthed his son. Internet Scams Target Vulnerable People With Powerful Access.

 

In a show of force, China has dispatched 66 warplanes into Taiwanese airspace over the past two days, according to Bloomberg. Some analysts suggest that China might employ strategies to economically isolate Taiwan and force it into submission without direct military confrontation. Will Xi This Time Cross The Line?

 

Following Thursday night’s disastrous debate performance by President Joe Biden, Democrats are in full panic mode, scrambling to figure out what comes next. Although game-changing moments are rare in our era of polarized politics, what went down in Atlanta on June 27 might alter the course of the 2024 campaign. What Comes Next.

 

Absent high-impact but low-probability events - such as the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the collapse of the Russian state, or a war over Taiwan - China will probably maneuver within the broad parameters it has already set out for the relationship. Sometimes Beijing will suggest a close relationship with Moscow, and sometimes it will imply a more distant one, modulating its message as the situation demands. Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons.

 

In tandem, the United States and Europe should tackle the delicate task of rebuilding leverage by gradually increasing diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran between now and October 2025, without triggering Iranian nuclear moves that would doom the prospects of securing a diplomatic agreement. Iran’s New Nuclear Threat.

 

Prioritizing Asia is just the first step in managing competition between the United States and China. The next phase requires national mobilization. Did America Wait Too Long To Counter China?

 

The United States’ Asian allies can better prepare for a second Trump term by increasing their defense spending; highlighting their investments in U.S. supply chains, which help create jobs in the United States; and reiterating why the United States needs to remain a benevolent regional hegemon. America’s Asian Partners.

 

There are times when the United States may consider it appropriate, or even desirable, to censure China. But if the type and frequency of its condemnations reach the point of threatening the CCP’s sense of security, Washington should expect a wolf-warrior reaction. U.S. policymakers will have to decide whether the costs to diplomatic channels are worth it. Why Beijing Embraced Combative Diplomacy.

 

The notion of an endless war in Ukraine terrifies Russia’s elite, who still hope that the invasion will conclude. They dream of returning as quickly as possible to the peaceful time of February 23, 2022. But for now, they are silent. How Russian Elites Made Peace With The War.

 

In the moments after President Biden’s halting debate performance Thursday, Vice President Harris went on a pair of television networks to praise him. She spent Friday crisscrossing the western United States, challenging those who worried he seemed old and ineffective. And she took to social media on his behalf. “In a real leader, character matters more than style, and Donald Trump simply does not have the character to be President of the United States,” said one of the vice president’s posts on X. Will Kamala Harris Be The First Woman To Get US Presidential Powers?

 

The Doctrine of Palestine in history would never have amounted to anything more than an intellectual musing had it not been for the huge ambitions of Hussein Ibn Ali. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.

 

In Part One we detailed the fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Sharif Hussein Arab Revolt. In Part Two the carving up of the Middle East via the Sykes-Picot Agreement. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.

 

If UK's Keir Starmer grasps the truth that his triumph is a function of the United Kingdom’s brokenness, he will have the courage to begin to fix it. If not, it will remain dangerously unfixed. And it may indeed become unfixable. The party that has dominated it for 200 years has imploded. It would be foolish to imagine that the same thing could not happen to the country. Neither will the economy rebound without far-reaching changes in the way the country functions. Why Labour’s Sweeping Victory May Not Reverse The Country’s Decline.

 

To deter attacks on NATO members, the alliance must rapidly reinforce its eastern borders. All three Baltic states now have conscription, so the number of trained reserves will grow. But their armed forces now own no battle tanks and no fighter aircraft. At the July 2023 Vilnius summit, NATO leaders agreed to scale up the battlegroups of roughly 1,000 Western troops stationed in each Baltic state to “brigade-size units” of more than 3,000 troops each. But they gave no timeline and promised the increase only “where and when required,” hardly a reassuring phrase. Why America Is In Denial Of NATO’s Future.

Foreign governments and international institutions must engage with nonstate groups to address acute humanitarian needs and improve governance. Myanmar’s fragmentation may be unavoidable, but it does not have to be catastrophic for its people. The Situation in Myanmar Today.

 

Washington shouldn’t be giving Beijing time - which the Biden administration’s détente-like policy does - to worm its way out of the economic conundrum it created for itself. Chinese leaders have long believed that the United States is trying to suppress Chinese economic growth anyway. The Cold War Between China, Europe, and the United States.

 

 

On June 6, 1944, 150,000 Allied troops landed on the beaches of Normandy and suffered an astonishingly low rate of casualties. A stunning military accomplishment, it was also a masterpiece of trickery. Operation Fortitude, which protected and enabled the invasion, and the Double Cross system, which specialized in turning German spies into double agents, The Spy that Defeated the Nazis.

 

 

When China overestimated the influence of Jewish interests in U.S. politics during World War II, it wasted valuable time and a few stacks of paper. But with the Chinese government now trying to position itself as the world’s alternative superpower, misreading the politics of Zionism could be far more costly. When Israel Was in China.

 

 

After decades of struggling with Hamas and months of fighting a massive, brutal war against it, Israel still seems unlikely to defeat the group. But it can still win, by helping Hamas defeat itself. How to Deal with Hamas.

 

 

Deglobalization offers analysts a simple story to tell about changes to the global economy. But the reality is more complex: put plainly, it is impossible for a global economy characterized by a large U.S. deficit on one side and a large Chinese surplus on the other to truly fragment. The world needs to have a healthy debate about the drawbacks and benefits of economic integration. But that debate must start from a frank acknowledgment that many characteristics of the contemporary global economy still push toward more, not less, integration and that addressing these ​factors will have real costs. Deglobalization.

 

 

China does not want to divert resources from its primary security concern in the east, the near seas in the Pacific, to its western front with India. Modi does not want to get caught in a prolonged crisis with a more powerful neighbor that would impede his domestic and global ambitions. Returning stability to the border between China and India falls short of rapprochement, but it would be a far better outcome than overt war. Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, not Deter, Chinese.

 

Not everything is going Putin’s way. Russia’s military withdrawal from Azerbaijan is a sign of weakness. So, too, arguably, is Armenia’s pivot to the West and the Georgian public’s mass resistance to what the opposition labels the “Russian law.” But if Russia looks weaker in the region, the West does not look stronger. Russia’s Quest for a Gateway to Iran and the Middle East.

 

Climate extremes will batter and test it, as they already have. But building more resilient election infrastructure and introducing greater flexibility in how, when, and where people register and vote can limit the damage. Doing so will be increasingly essential on a rapidly warming planet. Every voter should have the ability to cast a vote that gets counted - no matter the weather. Sixty-Eight Countries Will Hold Elections.

 

 

There will be no return to the Cold War transatlantic relationship, but Erdogan’s Turkey has not yet crossed over to the Chinese-Russian orbit, and there is an opening for Turkey to tilt back toward the West if its partners make the advantages of cooperation clear. Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.

 

 

The odds are that Modi and the BJP - still massively popular - will recover. But given the challenges of leading a coalition government and facing a stronger opposition, Modi will more frequently find himself on the back foot. Bharatiya Janata Party Suffer a Setback.

 

 

Zelenskyy is seen here when a WWII veteran wants to kiss his hand. Zelenskyy just before it could happen embraces the veteran:

Do democracies find retaining legitimacy more difficult than democracies? It would be reassuring to think so, were it not for the particular questions lodged, like malevolent matryoshka dolls, within this larger one. The Hidden Driver of Modern History.

 

At the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in Singapore Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told the same conference that the Philippines will defend its rights in the disputed waters, citing a landmark and binding 2016 arbitration ruling from The Hague, and he warned that any Chinese actions that lead to the death of a Filipino could trigger the mutual defense pact with the United States. The China Sea Syndrome.

 

The Democratic Party of Japan came into power promising a closer relationship with China and a Japanese foreign policy that was more oriented toward the country’s Asian neighbors. Ozawa’s mega-junket certainly seems like a pretty big statement to that end. To China and South Korea.

 

 

Israel was able to release four hostages from Hamas. World leaders, including US President Joe Biden, France's Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have welcomed the news of the hostage rescue.120 hostages that are still held by Hamas.

 

 

The goal for those who support Ukraine should be twofold: to bring about that cease-fire as quickly as possible with as much territory as possible on Ukraine’s side of the line. Achieving this outcome requires changing Russian expectations about the West’s staying power. Ukraine can win only when Russian leaders worry about how the war will progress in the coming years. To Sow that Fear in Moscow.

 

The Berlin Wall’s fall was a unique moment in geopolitical history, ushering in an era of unipolarity as the United States became the world’s hegemon. But it also heralded an unprecedented economic phenomenon: convergence. Requiem for Hyperglobalization.

 

Leaders can learn from the past in both positive and negative ways, about what to do and what not to do. But they have to learn the big lessons first, and the most important of all is how to avoid horrendous wars that reduce generations of achievements to rubble. Will America and China Heed the Warnings.

 

 

Only with complete access to intelligence information could one form a fully independent view of the threat. But the FBI director’s and the CENTCOM commander’s statements almost certainly reflect the classified intelligence they are reading and the law enforcement and military operations in which their organizations are involved. Their Words Should be Taken Seriously.

 

 

Since late 2023, the Houthis in Yemen have posed an extraordinary challenge to global shipping. As a result of the Iranian-backed group’s relentless attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Beijing needs a safe Red Sea, but wants Washington to deliver it. The Red Sea.

 

 

Even with the media largely on his side, Modi crashed into a newly skeptical electorate. If he is to regain their confidence, his self-aggrandizement will have to give way to humility, openness, and less control. This could well be a tall order for a leader so used to thinking of himself as ten feet tall. How Indian Voters Constrained Modi.

 

 

The pact is one of at least 31 bilateral security agreements that various countries have signed or are slated to sign with Ukraine in the coming months. Western officials tout these agreements as a sign of their countries’ enduring commitment to help Ukraine in its war against Russia, but Ukraine’s strongest supporters say those bilateral arrangements can’t replace Kyiv’s ultimate goal of joining NATO. Agreement Not Be a Formal Binding.

 

 

Is Peace Still Attainable? Experts once thought globalization would ensure peace. Now, they’re looking elsewhere. For example, the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine can only end with deals that don’t satisfy anyone completely.

Underneath: Israeli and Palestinian women’s organizations have a rich history of political engagement. Members of Women Wage Peace gather at the Jerusalem promenade overlooking the Old City, reciting a common secular prayer as they call on Israeli and Palestinian leaders to come together in dialogue:

 

The Russian leadership must understand that its leverage over Kyiv will continue to shrink as Ukraine’s capabilities grow, backed by an unshakeable Western commitment to the country’s long-term security. How to Create a Durable Peace In Europe.

 

 

If the core values of the United States and Israel diverge further, the next generation of leaders in both places may no longer see each other as kindred spirits. In that case, shared strategic interests might ensure that the countries remain allies, but they might cease to have the “special relationship” they have counted on in the past. Can America’s Special Relationship With Israel Survive?

 

 

Targeted labor market initiatives can help improve gender equality, offset the economic impact of aging populations, raise employment levels, and reduce labor shortages. Improving access to public services will not just help address the logistical needs of rural dwellers but also make them feel better recognized by the state and their fellow citizens who live in cities. Most importantly, bridging the rural-urban divide in a meaningful way will help lower the tensions now roiling many societies in the West. The Farmer Who Feel the Heat First.

 

 

If the United States and Israel truly believe there is no legal basis for the charges, they should call the ICC prosecutor’s bluff. But if Israel will not take advantage of the one surefire way to end the proceedings before they go any further, the United States should not shred its credibility simply to protect the men who have ignored every warning. Where The Case Stands Now.

 

 

Whoever becomes president will be a loyal insider. He will be as politically similar to Raisi as one can be, Raisi’s successor could even explicitly claim the latest president’s mantle. After all, in the official narrative of the Islamic Republic, Raisi will be remembered for putting Iran on the right path after a series of presidents who challenged the supreme leader’s vision. Whoever Succeeds Him Won’t Change Course.

 

 

Major Article: The rifts Gaza has aggravated in American society over the entire Israel-Palestine question will no longer be so easily shunted aside as a topic of conversation best avoided. The rifts Gaza has aggravated in American society over the entire Israel-Palestine question will no longer be so easily shunted aside as a topic of conversation best avoided. Why it is Crucial that it Not Be.

 

 

Major Article: Thus far, the US and Israel have responded to October 7 by doubling down on their demonization of Hamas and refusal to engage it in any political process. This approach considers repeated massacres (including of Israelis) an acceptable price to pay for maintaining Israeli rule in the OPT. Southern Gaza City of Rafah.

 

 

Major Article: These are not isolated actions but part of a pattern. They all serve the ultimate goal that the Zionist movement had set itself from the start: to build a Jewish state on as large a part of Palestine as possible with as few Arabs within its borders. Consequences Of The Israel/Hamas War Part Two.

 

 

Major Article: Yesterday Hamas official Osama Hamdan said that there is no need for new negotiations with Israel, amid Israeli media reports that there is an intention to renew Gaza truce talks. Meanwhile, police use water cannons to disperse demonstrators calling for the release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip by the Hamas militant group, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Saturday, May 25, 2024. Consequences Of The Israel/Hamas War.

Major Article: When Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, it turned the tiny enclave into an open-air prison. Israel’s response to the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 - the incessant bombardment of Gaza by land, sea, and air - turned this open-air prison into an open graveyard, a pile of rubble, and a Security Council desolate wasteland. The Land that is Israel.

 

 

Major Article: If, over the past half-century, Israel and its allies had desisted for but a moment in not merely missing, but actively spurning and sabotaging prospects for a just resolution to the Palestine Question, the 2023 massacre of Israeli civilians and incipient genocide in Gaza need never have happened. Indeed, the Israel-Palestine conflict would almost certainly have been resolved decades ago. Regional Ties of Israel.

 

 

Understanding South Africa's election’s consequences will be an exercise in distinguishing the substance from the surrounding commotion. Coalitions will rise and fall, yet all this instability will occur inside a framework that promotes long-term stability. When the ANC loses its historical dominance, South Africa is likely to continue on the same trajectory it has maintained for the past 30 years. The SA Election for Worse and for Better.

 

 

In India, large swaths of public positions and college slots are reserved for disadvantaged groups.) Voter interviews suggest that while they still believe in the prime minister and are swayed by the efficient delivery of benefits, they do worry about joblessness. But whatever voters decide, India needs both an economic and democratic course correction, which only a strong opposition, regardless of its identity, will bring. Modi’s Middling Economy.

 

 

Major Article: After years of violence against the British and the Jews and following an assassination attempt on the British inspector general of the Palestine police, the British authorities officially declared the Arab Higher Committee illegal and the mufti fled the Palestine mandate for good in 1937. Al-Husseini stopped in Beirut, Baghdad, and Tehran before arriving and settling in Berlin in 1941. Palestine: a British Dilemma.

 

 

Researchers, from the U.S. Geological Survey and other institutions, likened the process to a "stomp-rocket" toy, which works by stomping on a gas-filled chamber that propels a rocket into the air. The findings are published in Nature Geoscience.

 

 

The increasingly inescapable lesson of the Islamic Republic’s relations with Israel and with the wider Jewish community is that there is too much politics in history and not enough history in politics. Until that imbalance can be addressed, the opportunities for meaningful progress are slight. The Iran-Israel Relationship.

 

 

Technological islands of excellence are no substitute for good macroeconomic governance and well-institutionalized technology ecosystems that diffuse benefits throughout the economy - neither of which the Chinese system seems to produce. China's Quest to Innovate.

 

The leaders of the countries that are the United States’ friends and allies will be among the very few who can speak truthfully to Trump. He can shout at them, embarrass them, even threaten them. But He Cannot Fire Them.

 

The silver lining to the crisis in April was that Washington and Tehran talked behind the scenes throughout the two weeks. Their communication was key to averting catastrophe. As it charts its next diplomatic course, the United States should take advantage of that opening to lower the risk of a larger war. Attacks and counterattacks drastically changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East. The Region’s Perilous Security Conditions.

 

A UN Trusteeship for Palestine A Temporary Fix That Can Lead to an Enduring Peace. How It Could Be Done.

 

It may be too late to pull Mexican politics back from the brink. The government has openly questioned the integrity of the 2024 election and the autonomous electoral authorities organizing it. In the unlikely event of an opposition victory, López Obrador would probably reject the results, violence could ensue, and the military’s loyalty would be put to the test. Mexico On Edge?

 

There are a few downsides to exploring negotiations with Pyongyang. But the reality is that North Korea has not shown much interest in talking since Trump’s 2019 summit ended early without any agreement. The North Korean leader has even less incentive to make compromises now than he did then, thanks to the assistance the regime gets from China and Russia. And even if Kim were interested in making some kind of deal with the United States, it would make sense for him to first advance North Korea’s nuclear program as far as possible to increase his bargaining leverage. The Coming North Korean Crisis.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded a two-day visit to China on Friday, emphasizing the countries’ burgeoning strategic ties as well as his relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as they sought to present an alternative to U.S. global influence.

By voting for a divided government, Taiwan’s voters have forced leaders in not only Taipei but also Beijing to adapt to a more nuanced political reality. Chinese President Xi Jinping is impatient for progress in Taiwan, asserting in speeches that the issue cannot be handed down indefinitely from one generation to the next. Beijing has adopted an increasingly aggressive posture toward the island through such measures as cyberattacks, military patrols, hard-elbowed diplomacy, and disinformation campaigns. But the split in Taipei lessens the likelihood of a seismic constitutional or symbolic shift in sovereignty that the CCP might feel forces its hand to invade. If Lai and his administration successfully bolster deterrence, he may yet persuade Xi that any attempt to invade Taiwan runs too big a risk of wrecking the CCP’s other plans for China’s so-called “great rejuvenation.” Lai Ching-te’s Precarious Balancing Act.

 

The compromised admirals in charge of Navy intelligence. How One Man Seduced The U.S. Navy.

 

In a bitter personal attack, Netanyahu said Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) was one of the "great antisemites in modern times." Mr Khan, he said, was like judges in Nazi Germany who denied Jews basic rights and enabled the Holocaust. His decision to seek arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and defense minister was "callously pouring gasoline on the fires of antisemitism that are raging around the world.’ Netanyahu spoke English in the video that was released by his office. He does that when he wants his message to reach the foreign audience that matters most to him, in the US.

The men and women of the Special Operations Executive who lost their lives in occupied Europe are winning recognition on TV, in books and in commemorative events. Secret Sacrifice: The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.

 

Despite China’s stringent regulations against cryptocurrency activities, Chinese traders have continually found innovative ways to leverage digital currencies. This resilience is evident in the recent discovery by Chinese police of a $1.9 billion underground banking system. Crypto In China And Beyond.

 

Israel war: Gantz demands Gaza day-after plan by June 8, threatens to resign. Gantz’s Gaza Plan.

 

The UN Development Program has described the reconstruction requirements for Gaza as the most significant since World War II and estimates that it will cost tens of billions of dollars. This funding will be possible only through an international, pooled mechanism. The Day After.

 

Major Article: For nearly a half-century, there was a single factor, a single raison d’être, at the heart of the entire Soviet project. But it wasn’t fanning the communist revolution or even spreading Marxist Leninism itself. Rather, it was - as Sergey Radchenko argues in To Run the World, his new, more than 600-page doorstopper on the Soviet leaders’ views during the Cold War - something far simpler, and far more universal: prestige. To Run The World.

 

The United States ought to coordinate with corporations to support Taiwan’s economic buffer, especially those that ship goods to the island via sea and air. An interagency group from the Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and State should establish channels to assess emerging risks and share early warning indicators with the leaders of large multinational trading firms, shippers, and insurers. The Perils Of The Taiwan Strait.

 

In this war, resources, funds, and technology all overwhelmingly favor the West. If they are channeled to Ukraine in sufficient amounts, including to the country’s defense industry, Kyiv can win. Russia simply lacks the military power to defeat a Western-backed Ukraine, and so its only hope lies in manipulating Western concerns. Stop Fearing Victory.

The only legitimate Palestinian political entity that is untainted by failure is the state of Palestine. It is waiting in the wings to assume its place among the nations of the world. The moment is opportune for Palestinian political leaders, including from Fatah and The Palestinian Option.

 

Military leaders must take seriously the challenges posed by civilian efforts to politicize the US armed forces. Paradoxically, because of their commitment to the nonpartisan ethic, not to mention the responsibilities of their jobs, many are unaccustomed to thinking about their role in protecting the institution from being pulled into partisan politics. The Politization Of The U.S. Military.

Certainly, the European Union deserves credit as a first-mover for a comprehensive approach to Internet harms. But for others who are far behind, a genuine package of reforms must be introduced. At a minimum, it should include comprehensive privacy regulation that addresses the industry’s business model by banning its behavioral tracking of users, marketing of their preferences, and sales to data brokers. The Test.

 

Certainly the European Union deserves credit as a first mover for a comprehensive approach to Internet harms. But for others who are far behind, a genuine package of reforms must be introduced. At a minimum, it should include comprehensive privacy regulation that addresses the industry’s business model by banning its behavioral tracking of users, marketing of their preferences, and sales to data brokers. ByDance and TikTok.

 

Food can bring about mass civilian deaths and unthinkable horrors, provoking rightful moral outrage at the prospect of its use. But unlike nuclear weapons, food weaponization is routinely used in warfare. And in our globalized world, these tools have become more dangerous than ever. The Food Weapon.

 

Very much a topic in the context of the current Israel-Hamas War, the doctrine of Palestine in history would never have amounted to anything more than an intellectual musing had it not been for the huge ambitions of Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931 appointed emir or grand sharif of Mecca by Sultan Abdul Hamid II in 1908 we proceed. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.

 

If we were to ask the question, ‘On whose side did the Arabs fight in the First World War?’ Most people who know something about the war’s history would probably say ‘Britain’s.’ Such a reply would reflect the orthodox account, emanating from the glorification of ‘Lawrence of Arabia and the alleged ‘Arab Revolt’ of Sharif Hussein and his sons. However, in the past decade this orthodox narrative has been questioned by several historians. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.

 

 

Top Ukrainian officials openly suggested that a cascade of Russian defeats might force Russian President Vladimir Putin from power. These expectations, however, were completely unrealistic. Russia incurred tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of casualties, but the country was still much stronger than Ukraine. Its GDP was nine times the size of its neighbor’s, and its population was over three times as large. For Israel, it is probably too late to reset expectations, especially given that it was never the underdog (unlike Ukraine). Israelis are likely to look back on the war as a costly campaign and a missed opportunity – and perhaps as a major defeat. Winning The Battle But Losing The War.

 

 

Today Bankman-Fried’s 25-year sentence is about half of the 40 to 50 years prosecutors had sought. Judge Kaplan said he weighed several factors, including the brazenness of the crimes and Bankman-Fried’s potential to commit crimes in the future. There was a risk “that this man will be in a position to do something very bad in the future,” Kaplan said. “And it’s not a trivial risk,” Kaplan recommended that the Bureau of Prisons place Bankman-Fried in a medium-security or lower facility, ideally in the San Francisco area so that his family may visit. Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried Case.

 

 

NATO’s eastern enlargement, which was one of the reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine, has only continued. His actions have made the country’s membership in NATO  more likely, not less. And when Finland joined NATO last April, as a direct result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s land border with Russia more than doubled. What NATO Membership Will Require.

 

 

The French government was finally prepared explicitly to recognize Britain’s special interests in the Arabian Peninsula, and confirmed its intention ‘not to seek any political influence in these regions’. The British noted with satisfaction that the French were ‘ready to accept our political supremacy in the Arabian Peninsula, except the Hedjaz’, which was ‘a point gained’. Especially when one took into account that regarding the Hijaz, ‘owing to the close connection of the holy places with Egypt, Aden, and Mesopotamia [there should] be no difficulty for us in acquiring and eventually asserting a position of predominance there also’. The Middle East Gamble.

 

 

Chinese officials often say that Beijing does not deliberately seek a trade surplus. Deliberate or not, China’s trade imbalances are not sustainable for the rest of the world, and China should not be surprised if foreign governments start to respond more aggressively. China’s Economic Collision Course.

 

 

One of the larger ironies in the current war may be that, as patrons of wayward clients, both the United States and Iran have more in common than they may recognize. Both would benefit from a cease-fire that ends the risk of a regional war. The Patron’s Dilemma.

 

Although global missile proliferation today relies primarily on Iran and North Korea, it is likely to expand as commercial space activities democratize access to fundamental missile technology. Both state and nonstate groups are increasingly recognizing the coercive power of these missile arsenals. What Proliferation Means For Global Security.

 

 

Although the Chinese-Russian strategic relationship has arisen over decades, that relationship – to say nothing of Moscow’s ties to Pyongyang and Tehran – has ripened considerably during the war in Ukraine. In the years ahead, the challenge of adversary alignment may well be inevitable. Why It Will Not Surprise.

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The breakdown of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East would reach a fever pitch during the Versailles deliberations. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Four.

 

 

Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks provided Ankara a unique opportunity for Erdogan to stand with Israel and one which he is likely to squander. Rather than condemn Hamas and distance himself from a militant group, Erdogan is poised to sacrifice Turkey’s strategic interests again in favor of his Islamist beliefs. Erdogan And Hamas.

 

Although many Western policymakers think they know better than to treat the non-Western world as an unvariegated whole, they should use the phrase “global South” with particular care. The Rest Of The World.

 

 

Putin’s Russia will continue to be a revisionist state bent on expanding its territory – by force if necessary. Any durable peace must thus be based on deterrence, not satisfaction with the status quo. Obstacles To Diplomacy In Ukraine.

 

 

China will likely continue to contribute about a third of the world’s economic growth while increasing its economic footprint, particularly in Asia. If U.S. policymakers underappreciate this, they are likely to overestimate their ability to sustain the deepening of economic and security ties with Asian partners. Misconceptions About China.

 

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Iran’s actions and introducing more predictability in the Middle East would be a great improvement. Iran has learned to play the current game well, and it understands its advantages. A Détente Option For Iran.

 

The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing already strong Israeli incentives for more, not less, military escalation with Iran. The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing already strong Israeli incentives for more, not less, military escalation with Iran. Where This War Will Go Next?

 

After half a year of nearly steadfast support, it’s time for the Biden administration to firmly push Israel in the direction it should go anyway. Honesty is what friends owe friends. Stuck In Gaza.

 

It all began in Beijing. Narendra Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat when he visited in 2011 to pitch his state as a destination for Chinese investment. As India’s ambassador to China at the time, S. Jaishankar was tasked with helping to facilitate meetings with Chinese Communist Party leaders and officials, companies, and even Indian students there. Modi’s New Messenger.

 

 

The most celebrated and reliable chronicler of pre-Zionist Palestine. Was Mark Twain, who wrote about his travels in the undivided Palestine that time called the Holy Land. Witness To Palestine.

 

 

Amidst Israel’s ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip and concerns over an increased Iranian role in the war, reports are emerging that Israel may acquire the new F-15EX soon. The New Capacity.

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Several U.S. presidents hoped to downsize America’s role in the Middle East on the cheap – in Biden’s case, to focus on China’s challenge and Russia’s growing threat. But Hamas and Iran have drawn the United States back in. Iran’s Strategy.

 

 

The current mass exodus of Chinese people from their homeland is evidence they want to live in nations that respect human rights, honor the rule of law, and offer a wide choice of opportunities. As Taiwan’s example makes plain, China could be such a place, too. Competition With China To Be Won.

 

 

Mark Sykes suggested that: It would be worth considering whether a new department under a secretary or under-secretary of state should not be started, this would be the Department of the Near East and would be responsible for policy and administration of Egypt, Arabia, and Mesopotamia. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Five.

 

 

Since October 7, the motto “Together We Will Win” has rallied the Israeli public in the fight against the perpetrators of that day’s attacks. But Israelis must remember that any military victory will turn into defeat if it undermines the core values of a Jewish and democratic Israel. The Only Way Is To Defeat Hamas.

 

 

Many describe NATO as the United States’ indispensable alliance – and it remains a top priority. However given the geopolitical shift to the Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Japanese alliance is far more important. The Pacific Space.

 

As we have seen, in the strange new diplomatic game of appeasing American sensitivities on the Ottoman settlement, Lloyd George and the British believed that, in Faisal and his Arab irregulars, they had an ace in the hole, a façade to rule behind. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Six.

 

 

The BJP marches on. It seems certain to win in the coming election, so the next five years are all but guaranteed to feature further authoritarianism and increasing marginalization of Muslims. But if the party scores big, it may be able to irrevocably restructure the Indian polity. The margins, therefore, matter. The Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion People Hangs In The Balance.

 

The only solution for the Palestinians to this conundrum is the destruction of Israel. But they cannot destroy Israel. The destruction of Israel represents a far-fetched scenario but were it to happen, it would necessitate that other nations hostile to Israel, both bordering the Jewish state and elsewhere in the region, play a major role. And if they did play this role, there is nothing in their history, ideology, or position that indicates they would find the creation of a Palestinian state in their interests. Each would have very different ideas of what to do in the event of Israel’s destruction. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Seven.

 

 

US president issues statement after Israeli military says Iran launched more than 200 drones and missiles.

 

 

While the US House of Representatives plans a raft of Iran sanctions votes after the attack on Israel, UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned “the serious escalation represented by the large-scale attack launched against Israel by the Islamic Republic of Iran. How might a war between Israel and Iran be fought? The Cascading World.

 

 

The Middle East Could Still Explode. Despite the abject failure of the Iranian attack, Israel might still feel the need to hit Iran somewhere to demonstrate that it will never be deterred from responding to restore its deterrent. Why Iran And Israel May Not Be Finished.

Iran attack shows Israeli deterrence policy ‘shattered’, Netanyahu critics say.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel’s War Leaders Don’t Trust One Another.

 

After the past two years of carnage in Ukraine, all of this may be so much water under the bridge. But it is a reminder that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises to end the war. So if and when Kyiv and Moscow return to the negotiating table, they’ll find it littered with ideas that could yet prove useful in building a durable peace. The Way Forward In Ukraine.

 

 

Even though Israel and its partners say they downed more than 99 percent of the hundreds of drones and missiles that Iran fired at it over the weekend in a major moment of escalation in the Middle East, Israeli leaders say they have no choice but to respond. These Are The Three Options.

 

 

The Biden administration has repeatedly said that its support for Israel remains “ironclad” but noted that the United States does not support an Israeli counterattack against Iran and will not participate in such an attack. It did not specify whether that extended to all forms of attack, including cyber operations, or just to kinetic military operations. Israel’s Cyberabilities.

 

 

Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7, the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine. Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting an alignment of interests. The Five Futures Of Russia.

 

 

Last weekend, there was a lot of commentary on social media and elsewhere expressing amazement at a new Middle East in which countries of the region coordinated an effort to thwart Iran’s attack on Israel. There is something to be said for that. But what’s more amazing when one takes a step back is that war has not changed the region that much. Relations With Israel And American Leadership.

 

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Biden also announced an investigation into China’s shipbuilding and logistics sectors, which the U.S. United Steelworkers Union and others have been accused of unfair trade practices. The Chinese Embassy in the United States condemned Biden’s decision. The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that such actions could increase inflation and worsen already fraught bilateral relations. So What Is It All About?

 

 

As long as Iran continues to press in its strategy of encircling Israel, and funneling advanced weapons to militant proxies that threaten Israeli population centers, Israel will be compelled to pursue its countervailing campaign against Iran. Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners Choose To Escalate.

 

 

Security sources in Iraq say a huge blast has hit a military base that houses pro-Iranian militias. Indeed, the fastest route to attack targets in the north of Iran would be through Syria and Iraq. The Israeli air force would have to suppress Syria’s air defenses either by jamming or by a cyberattack, as in 2007 when Israel destroyed what it said was a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Israel “switched off” a large section of Syria’s air defense radar network beforehand. Dilemmas Of The Gulf States.

 

 

A massive explosion leaves a huge crater in an Iraqi military base after a suspected Israeli strike.

 

 

Muslim rule was first introduced to South Asia when Arab forces seized control of the Sind region of the southern Indus Plain (now in Pakistan) in 711. Around the same time, the greatest empires of ancient India were based in the Gangetic Plain which, along with the Indus Plain, boasted the earliest urban centers of the subcontinent. The British ‘Company’ And The Conquest Of India.

 

 

What Underground Empire and Digital Empires suggest is that technology can help international relations theorists better understand the power debates that have haunted them since the days of Sparta and Athens. The New Empires Of The Internet.

 

 

It appears that the war in Gaza is winding down. It is by no means certain that it won’t re-ignite with an assault on Rafah, as Israel has threatened, or that the low-intensity conflict between Israel and Hezbollah won’t spiral into a full-fledged war. But for now, as a testament to the prioritizing of realpolitik and economic interest by Arab leaders, these ties have stood the test. Jordanian Fighter Pilots.

 

 

The nature and degree of popular anger, the decline of U.S. primacy and the collapse of its legitimacy, and Arab regimes’ prioritization of their domestic survival, as well as regional competition, suggest that the new regional order will be much more attentive to public opinion than the old. The Coming Arab Backlash.

 

 

Top Israeli officials were caught off guard by reports that Washington is considering cutting off U.S. aid to a Jewish Orthodox battalion accused of committing human rights abuses in the West Bank. Judicial Reforms As War Of Words Escalates.

 

 

The global innovation and creativity necessary to solve the world’s challenges thrive best in open societies. Transparency, the rule of law, and official accountability are the foundation of healthy, sustained global economic growth. The current system of alliances, although insufficient to ensure global peace and security, has helped prevent war from breaking out among the world’s great powers for more than 70 years. China has not yet managed to convince a majority of the planet’s people that its intentions and capabilities are the ones needed to shape the twenty-first century. China Today And Tomorrow.

 

 

Instead of projecting the West’s fears and hopes onto China, Western officials better try to understand how China’s leaders perceive their country and their ambitions. The idea of peak China only confuses the debate in the United States. It leads some to argue that China’s weaknesses are the problem and others to suggest that China’s strengths pose the biggest risks. A Problem With China’s Economy.

 

 

The U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific Adm. John Aquilino said he didn’t believe the economic growth figures reported by China and described the country’s economy as failing.

 

If a century of failure has made clear that the two sides are unlikely to be reconciled in the foreseeable future, the war in Gaza has exposed the terrifying cataclysm that poor handling of the conflict can bring about. When the fighting is over, imaginative, resourceful, and compassionate management of the conflict between the two sides will be more crucial than ever. Gaza After Gaza.

 

 

The uprising sparked by the Foreign Office authorizing Sir Henry McMahon to enter into negotiations with Sharif Hussein and the debates surrounding the Sykes-Picot agreement has shaped the Middle East into forms that would have been unrecognizable to the diplomats of the 19th century. The Making Of The Middle East.

 

 

Pictured below according to the White House is the one person who is blocking the release of Israeli hostages. Qatar And The Hamas Leader.

 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended three days of meetings in China on Friday with a stark warning to China’s leadership, stop exporting materials that allow Russia to rebuild its industrial base or face U.S. sanctions. There is a tendency to downplay the significance of growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. By turning to Beijing, this argument goes, Moscow merely signals its acceptance of the role of junior partner. Obtaining drones from Iran and munitions from North Korea demonstrates the desperation of a Russian war machine that incorrectly assumed that conquering Ukraine would be easy. The attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv. The Anti-Western Club.

 

King Edward VIII, subsequent Duke of Windsor, told his friend Diana Mosley, the wife of the British Fascist leader, Sir Oswald Mosley, that ‘every drop of blood in my veins is German’ was initially influenced by his family members among the German aristocracy, which also led to Hitler's idea of an Anglo-German collaboration. Royalty And The Nazi's Part One.

 

A flurry of arrests this week reflects the continent’s newly toughened response to Beijing’s espionage activities and political meddling. In all, six people in three separate cases have been charged this week in Europe with spying for China: two in Britain and four in Germany. Wang 'William' Leqiang the first Chinese operative to ever blow his cover in Australia. Overview Of Chinese Spy Activities.

 

The U.S. secretary of state and the Chinese president tried to stabilize U.S.-China relations, but ser the United States and China agreed to continue improving bilateral communication between their militaries as well as increase cultural exchanges, with Blinken saying he supports more U.S. citizens studying in China. Blinken-Xi Also Highlight Continued Areas Of Disagreement.

 

What made the documents in the 'Red Book' remarkable is because of their complete absence from the official histories of pro-Nazi fascists in Britain. Hence although some of the perpetrators would challenge their detentions in the courts, their detailed plans for a Nazi puppet regime were never revealed. The Red Book.

 

Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to it has been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages. Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024. Why International Law Is Failing.

 

AI systems to be tested and evaluated to ensure that they function as anticipated and adhere to the Pentagon’s AI Ethical Principles and its Responsible AI Strategy. This was an important first step in the safe development and implementation of these technologies. AI Large Language Models.

 

Ultimately, any successful end to the Ukraine war will depend on NATO’s ability to convincingly deter Russia. That posture requires the alliance not only to field sufficient forces to counter a threat from Russia but also to establish sufficient production capacity among its members to sustain a steady flow of munitions in the event of another war. American Aid Alone Won’t Save Ukraine.

 

The Kremlin’s ruthless response to defectors is unlikely to help Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Creating more fear within the military and intelligence services will certainly not raise morale. The Russian Volunteer Corps.

 

Middle powers today have more agency than at any time since World War II. These are countries with significant leverage in geopolitics, but they are less powerful than the world’s two superpowers­­ - the United States and China. In the global north, they include France, Germany, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and others. Except for Russia, these countries do not tell us much about the shifting dynamics of power and leverage, as they remain broadly aligned with the United States. Importance Of The Middle powers.

 

The new behavior that the Iran-Israel crisis in April provoked in numerous states shows that long-standing realities in the Middle East can change. Iran is now in a weak position, and Israel has a window of opportunity in an otherwise very difficult year. Rarely has Israel so urgently needed to seize a potential strategic opportunity. But This Is Equally True For The United States.

 

Many in Israel viewed the protests at Harvard (and soon other Universities) with confusion and anxiety, seeing them as an attack on the country and not just its government. "We didn’t know so many people hated Israel. I don’t think these young people know a lot about Israel or the conflict." When The Palestinian Flag Was Raised At Harvard.

 

Disrupting propaganda efforts by malign foreign actors is important work, but it must be done thoroughly, accurately, and proportionally. Exaggerating the effects of foreign influence campaigns serves only the foreign operatives. It fosters a conspiratorial outlook, in which shadowy enemies are supposedly creating wedge issues, dissenters are merely parroting foreign spies, and trust in open democratic debate is eroded. Foreign Propagandists.

 

The current U.S. approach to China’s nuclear program is ineffective. Proposals made by American analysts for de-escalating the arms race typically call for mutual restraint at the military-technical level through measures that enhance nuclear transparency or limit new strategic weapons. But these suggestions do not directly tackle the underlying concerns and grievances that drive China’s nuclear buildup, and unsurprisingly they have failed to interest Xi. The Real Motives For China’s Nuclear Expansion.

 

 

The stakes of U.S. policy toward a Saudi nuclear program extend beyond the kingdom itself, and even the Middle East. Washington’s strategy this time will set a precedent that could apply to other countries, such as South Korea and Germany, that may seek to expand their civilian nuclear programs. Saying yes to one ally makes it harder to say no to others. Will Saudi Arabia Get The Bomb?

 

Biden is trailing Trump, his Republican rival for the presidency, in many key polls. Trump blames Biden for the struggles of many Americans, but the blame should lie with the structural problems that too few presidents have addressed. Biden needs to show he will go after the causes, not only the symptoms, of this malaise. Showing An Industrial Strategy.

 

 

The most dynamic and deadly offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood is Hamas. Only after the outbreak of the Intifada in 1987 was the Muslim Brotherhood formed into the political entity that carried out a terrorist war against Israel. At the same time, Hamas was launching a war with Israel. Hamas Part Two.

 

Social media sites like TikTok are partly to blame for widespread criticism of Israel’s war effort against Hamas in Gaza, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “Why has Hamas disappeared in terms of public perception?” he continued. “An offer is on the table for a ceasefire and yet the world is screaming about Israel,” Blinken said that part of the reason for that dynamic was a changing media environment, where people no longer all read from the same authoritative news sources and instead learn about current events on chaotic social media feeds. Why TikTok Needs To Get Out Of The Hands Of The Chinese Government.

 

If things turn out ok in TikTok’s case, it will be a consequence of luck, not strategy. A strategy - one that is coherent, comprehensive, and long-term - is what the United States needs in its rivalry with China, as ad hoc hurried efforts cannot make up for years of avoiding tough decisions. The TikTok Ban Shows How Decisions End Up Rushed.

Israel-3

 

Israel’s war cabinet votes to attack Rafah. The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday that it had taken “operational control” of the Gaza side of the Rafah crossing. A better US sanctions strategy is essential to this effort, and so, too, is ratcheting up pressure on Russia. If the United States and its partners cannot effectively isolate Russia from the global economy, then there is little hope that they would fare better against the far greater challenge of China. Why U.S. Credibility And Resolve Is At Stake.

Israel-2

 

The 'Battle For Gaza' (where the head of Hamas is holed up) seems about to start: Israeli Tanks Enter Rafah and Take Control of the Border Crossing. A Gaza border official, said travel and the flow of aid into the Strip have “stopped completely” as a result. Hamas earlier said it agreed to a Qatari-Egyptian cease-fire proposal and Israel said it would send meditators to negotiate in Egypt, renewing hopes for a pause in fighting even as the Israeli Defense Forces said it struck more than 50 targets in Rafah. Apparently Israel has no trust in what Hamas says.

Israel-1

 

Back in the late 1950s, there were almost as many 18-to 23-year-old men in Japan as there were in the United States, making Tokyo a valuable U.S. Pacific ally. But that is now ancient history. By 2020, Japan had less than a third as many military-age men as the United States. By 2050, it could have barely a fifth. East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse.

 

Despite the U.S. Congress’s recent approval of $61 billion in military aid, Ukraine is at its most fragile point in more than two years. Strikes on Russian refineries alone will not force Moscow to capitulate, but they do make the war more difficult and expensive for Russia - and so, if nothing else, when the time comes for negotiations, they may push the Kremlin to make concessions. Washington’s Fears About Energy Markets.

 

As officials in Riyadh predicted then, there would come a time when the president would need the Saudi leader. They did not wait too long. The upward pressure on gasoline prices during the post-COVID-19 travel surge and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presented unique challenges to the White House - challenges that required Saudi help to address. Saudi Arabia Is On The Way To Becoming The Next Egypt.

 

Taiwan is a responsible member of the international community, and its position on maintaining the cross-Strait status quo will not change. But it needs the world’s democracies to do their utmost to help maintain peace through strength and unity. By continuing to support Ukraine in its fight for survival in the face of Russian aggression, the world’s democracies have demonstrated exactly the kind of resolve and moral clarity that Taiwan also needs from them. The Interconnected Fates Of The World’s Democracies.

 

It is dangerous to believe that a regional equilibrium will be maintained simply by pouring a lot of money into defensive systems and denial technologies. Front-line states must have the ability - and the support of their allies - to strike the enemy behind the apparent safety of its borders and not just absorb its attacks. Pressuring Allies Not To Retaliate Against Attacks Raises The Risk Of Spiraling Conflicts.

 

Peril lies in the fact that both Hamas and Hezbollah truly believe that Israel’s destruction is inevitable and that October 7 is simply the beginning of an irreversible process that will ultimately achieve just that. Anyone who truly supports the idea of securing a durable settlement to this conflict must oppose including Hamas in Palestinian governance for the simple reason that Hamas’ fundamental goals are incompatible with peace. The Rafah Operation.

 

Singaporeans’ views on the Israel-Hamas current war in Gaza’ are relevant, just as they are with Ukraine. After all, it’s a country that has long-standing ties to Israel - especially its security sector. Indeed, Singapore built up its defense capacity with help from Israel, starting very soon after Singapore gained independence. Trade between the two countries reportedly crossed exceeded $1 billion in 2022, and Singapore upgraded its diplomatic presence soon thereafter, by establishing a full ambassadorship and embassy in Tel Aviv that year. Israel From A Singaporean Perspective.

 

Attempting to appease Putin is futile, and wishfully seeking fragmentation within Russia is unlikely to be effective as long as the country remains financially robust, maintains the upper hand over Ukraine, and secures total domestic control. The authorities are rapidly becoming more hawkish, the elites are increasingly embracing Putin’s war agenda, and the broader society is unable (or indeed unwilling) to exert the kind of pressure that might push Russia in a different direction. Russia’s Pro-Putin Elites.

 

Investigation and prosecution of corruption within the United States Navy. The Ongoing Investigation.

 

Hamas could soon create a situation that is far more dangerous and destabilizing than the one that allowed it to launch the October 7 attack. The peril lies in the fact that both Hamas and Hezbollah truly believe that Israel’s destruction is inevitable and that October 7 is simply the beginning of an irreversible process that will ultimately achieve just that. Anyone who truly supports the idea of securing a durable settlement to this conflict must oppose including Hamas in Palestinian governance for the simple reason that Hamas’s fundamental goals are incompatible with peace. Hamas‘s Future.

In March, Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, said Europe was in a "prewar" era and that if Russia defeated Ukraine, it could spell trouble for the security of the continent. Putin Threatens the West with "Special Ammunition."

 

Last month, NATO, the world’s most successful military alliance, celebrated its 75th anniversary. Some fear that it may have been its last anniversary with the United States playing a leading role. Former U.S. President Donald Trump still views the alliance as obsolete. The End of NATO?

 

High-tech networks are central to the basic functioning of modern societies, but today’s infrastructure is too multifaceted, layered, and interconnected for any one state to truly control it. In the age of infrastructure, shaping world order requires political leaders to find new ways to collaborate with the entrepreneurs, builders, bankers, and operators who manage the interdependent systems that sustain twenty-first-century life. Infrastructure Is Remaking Geopolitics.

 

As great powers, China and the United States may never become great friends. But they can resist becoming enemies. Level heads and cautious optimism will help maintain the stability of the world’s most important relationship. Fatalism and recklessness will only drive the countries toward a conflict that neither wants. US-China Relations.

 

China’s relentless urbanization, then, promises to act as a continued check on Beijing’s ambitions to raise birthrates. Most worrying for Beijing is the fact China has a lot of room left to urbanize: Less than two-thirds of Chinese citizens live in cities, compared to 81 percent of South Koreans and 92 percent of Japanese. Beijing will find efforts to raise the birthrate even harder as a greater share of the 34 percent of its citizens currently living in rural areas decamps to cities. The World's Second Most Populous Country.

 

To ensure you know, our research has nothing to do with the poorly written and inaccurate book Tracers in the Dark By Andy Greenberg, apparently written for entertainment purposes. Or at least it has many factual errors where she claims that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies cannot be traced, whereby there is nothing further from the truth, as we will explain. We do not incorporate anything that Tracers in the Dark book. Instead, we will, among others, detail why people like Sam Bankman-Fried (and others who, in their way, tried to do similar) are not innocent victims of what recently has been tossed around with victims of the Federal Reserve's raising interest rates. Instead, we detail what, in reality, are Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.

 

 

Rare earth elements lithium, graphite, and cobalt - support a wide variety of modern technologies.

Putting Xi's Visit to Vietnam in Context.

Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam will likely see the two countries agree to integrate their supply chains further and symbolically upgrade their relationship, which will benefit Vietnam amid the growing U.S.-China competition over rare earth minerals. During his trip, the Chinese president is meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong, the General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, to discuss bringing China-Vietnam relations to a higher position.' Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Hanoi earlier this month, which likely involved finalizing a joint statement that will be unveiled during Xi's visit. China and Vietnam agreed to upgrade rail infrastructure and more thoroughly integrate supply chains, focusing on rare earth.

Rare but true in some Czech villages, St Nicholas leads a parade with the devil and Grim Reaper in tow:

 

Nomads of Mongolia have adapted, once again, adding new technologies to their arsenal of traditional knowledge to negotiate an increasingly unreliable climate. Motorbikes mean they can zip through dust storms to look for lost sheep. Solar energy means they can keep their phones charged and access the internet to exchange information with neighbors about newer pastures and keep their freezers going to preserve meat for lean days.

 

UN General Assembly adopts a resolution on “Protection of civilians and upholding legal and humanitarian obligations” during the 45th plenary meeting of the resumed 10th Emergency Special Session.

Normalizing Hamas within the context of revivified Palestinian politics will be a bitter pill to swallow, but the alternatives - such as continuing to insist on Hamas’s destruction, attempting to drag an illegitimate and ineffective PA to Gaza, or forcing elections in a volatile and crisis-ridden environment - will likely backfire as they have in the past.

Hamas leader Sinwar fled northern Gaza in a humanitarian convoy, report says. Rally held for hostages, as those freed speak of hell, reminiscent of the Holocaust. The UN Security Council in New York was set to vote later in the day on another call for a ceasefire in the besieged territory after previous bids were vetoed by the United States. Israel has approved aid deliveries into Gaza via its Kerem Shalom crossing, aside from the Rafah crossing with Egypt, and a first truck convoy passed through Kerem on Sunday according to the Egyptian Red Crescent. The Way Going Forward In Gaza.

 

Could Hamas Become a Global Threat? The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.

 

In ushering in a new constitutional order, Israel has the rare opportunity to complete one of the great unrealized goals of its founders. If Israelis can achieve this lofty goal in the wake of the worst national catastrophe since then, they will have successfully turned the terrible tragedy of October 7 into a historic opportunity to not only defend the Jewish state but also to secure its democratic future for generations to come. How Hamas Has United Israelis Behind The War.

 

Israel seeks to destroy Hamas, capturing or killing its leaders, shattering its military capacity, and ending its power in Gaza. It seeks the release of the hostages who were kidnapped on October 7 and remain alive. Its leaders must make hard choices about which goals to prioritize and which to set aside. Researching Israel’s Goals And Strategy.

 

Biden must not threaten to withhold necessary military assistance from Israel. But he can make it clearer to the Israelis that the continued strength of their relationship with Washington rests on Israel's understanding that it cannot reoccupy Gaza and that their ultimate security guarantee will be a peace agreement with a similarly peace-minded Palestinian state. Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.

The inter-office rivalry and jumble of complex issues competing for attention that British officials juggled while inadvertently shaping the future of the world. It is unique in how and why the British generals and diplomats acted as they did. By took as his starting point the voluminous, contradictory, and revealing records of the policy-makers in the British government and that many concerned with foreign policy-making were quite oblivious to the history and complexities of the Islamic World and how the British Empire tried to change the world with how shallow and confused the understanding of those that shaped the future of the Middle East was. Part One:

Until after the U.S. election season passes, great political and practical pressures weigh on Biden, should he should choose to be bold. But Far Greater Risks May Emerge If He Doesn’t.

The Sea of Marmara (/ˈmɑːrmərə/; Turkish: Marmara Denizi; Greek: Θάλασσα του Μαρμαρά, Ancient Greek: Προποντίς, Προποντίδα), also known as the Sea of Marmora or the Marmara Sea, and in the context of classical antiquity as the Propontis. Turkey In Context.

Vladimir Putin, who compared himself to Peter the Great, is determined to shape the future to look like his past version. This treatise, and similar public statements, make clear that Putin wants a world where Russia presides over a new Slavic union composed of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, and perhaps the northern part of Kazakhstan (which is heavily Slavic) – and where all the other post-Soviet states recognize Russia’s suzerainty. Bolshevik Rule.

Although the UAE might seem ahead of its neighbors now, many states are hot on its tail and undermining its security. As a result, rather than trying to hinge itself beyond the region, the country’s long-term security and economic interests will be better served by a stronger regional security framework - a process that requires deeper regional integration and more effective conflict resolution mechanisms. The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World.

 

“My gut tells me we will fight in 2025,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a January memo to officers in the Air Mobility Command. The memo, which promptly leaked to reporters, warned that the United States and China were barreling toward a conflict over Taiwan. US New World War.

Gaza must once again return to its roots as the prosperous crossroads it was for centuries. To start with, the policy of siege and blockade must end, allowing the territory to finally reconnect with the rest of the region. Gaza Historical Role.

 

Chinese Spy Operations.

 

 

Today is the final day of the Feidong, China traditional firework display that forms part of the county’s three-day New Year celebrations:

 

A "far-right international” would help Putin strengthen his hand. He hopes that it might prompt Western states to weaken sanctions, for example, or to cut back on support for Kyiv. The result might be a more durable Kremlin regime. And for Putin, that in itself would be a win. Putin And The Right.

 

Election security should not be a matter of politics or partisanship but rather preserving the integrity of the country’s most sacred democratic process. Americans must work together so that the malicious use of generative AI is just another line in a long list of challenges that the American electoral process can and has overcome. Generative Artificial Intelligence.

 

 

The story of why the former head of a former English Order of the Russian Tradition currently runs a bed-and-breakfast in Italy. Alexandre Tissot And The British Association.

 

Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the United States does not have the appetite to support the victims of aggression once a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it cannot defend more than one country in one region at a time. All this could encourage further adventurism. By continuing to help Ukraine resist Russian aggression, the United States can send a powerful signal to a broader range of rivals: unprovoked aggression will not go unpunished. All This Could Encourage Further Adventurism.

 

Prematurely abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the United States does not have the appetite to support the victims of aggression once a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it cannot defend more than one country in one region at a time. All this could encourage further adventurism. The Ukraine-Taiwan Tradeoff.

 

 

Within a few hours of the Pearl Harbor attack, a Zero pilot whose engine had been damaged by antiaircraft fire ditched his plane on Niihau, a sleepy island located 150 miles northwest of Honolulu and inhabited by 250 Hawaiians and part Hawaiians, one issei, and a nisei couple with a two-year-old daughter. From 7 December until 13 December the pilot, helped by the nisei husband, imposed his will on the island,  whose inhabitants had no communications with the outside world except for a weekly boat from neighboring Kauai. From Pearl Harbour On.

During Taiwan’s election, there are worrying signals that his thinking is moving in the latter direction. Xi has stated that the Taiwan issue cannot be passed on to future generations and that achieving unification is the essence of the country’s rejuvenation. Taiwan Today.

 

 

An armed gang stormed the studio of a major television station in Ecuador on Tuesday, waving pistols, machine guns, and sticks of dynamite. The gunmen burst into the headquarters of the TC Televisión network in Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil. Ecuador's police were deployed to the station, eventually recapturing the building.

The storming of the station comes amid a spate of organized nationwide attacks by criminal groups across Ecuador. On Monday, the country’s new president, Daniel Noboa, declared a state of emergency after the escape of the country’s most dangerous gang leader.

The president of Ecuador declares a state of 'internal armed conflict' as gang leader escapes from Jail and gunman invades TV studio:

 

The current problems with Hamas go straight back to the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which ended at a stroke thirteen hundred years of imperialism in the Middle East, and was not a necessary, let alone an inevitable, consequence of World War I. It was a self-inflicted disaster by a shortsighted leadership blinded by imperialist ambitions. Had the Ottomans heeded the Entente's repeated pleas for neutrality, their empire would most likely have weathered the storm. However, they did not, and this blunder led to the destruction of the Ottoman Empire by the British army and the creation of the new Middle Eastern state system on its ruins. Even this momentous development was not inevitable, and its main impetus came not from the great powers but from a local imperial aspirant: Hussein ibn Ali of the Hashemite family. The Problems With The Middle East.

 

The US and UK militaries launched strikes against Houthi targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on Thursday, marking a significant response after the Biden administration and its allies warned that the Iran-backed militant group would bear the consequences of its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. US President Joe Biden said he ordered the strikes “in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime  vessels in the Red Sea.”

 

Taiwan expects China to pressure the incoming govt after the election. Unless Cina gives Taiwan up on trying to take control of the island, the CCP will always work to distort Taiwanese politics. But the island has devoted considerable time and resources to bolstering its resilience, developing a response as adaptive as Beijing’s efforts. The Taiwan Conundrum.

 

Satellite images show a damaged radar site at Sana'a Airport in Yemen following Friday's strikes. So a second round of strikes at Houthi targets would seem to reflect the determination of the Americans to match their declared intent - to degrade the Houthis military and, in so doing, remove a complication that carries the threat of expanding aggression in the region. The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.

 

China urges the US, UK, and Japan not to interfere in ‘China’s internal affairs’ after they congratulate Lai Ching-te on his election win. This is where China has no right to call Taiwan part of China, historical records prove otherwise. Yet Following the result of the free elections China again sent navy vessels to intimidate Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is increasingly a critical military flashpoint within this broad expanse. Tensions are mounting as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ramps up its political, economic, and military pressure on Taiwan and its other neighbors. There are warning signs that Beijing may accelerate its plan to seize Taiwan by force if necessary. President Biden’s strong start regarding the Taiwan issue comes against the backdrop of China dramatically increasing military activity in the waters and air space near the island.

 

Either the United States and its international partners must make a historic decision to end the conflict now and move both sides swiftly toward a viable two-state solution, or the world will have to contend with an even darker future. Soon, it will no longer be a question of occupation but the more difficult issue of outright apartheid. The Choice Cannot Be Clearer.

 

Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince was on lockdown on Thursday, as flaming barricades across several neighborhoods forced residents to shelter in place or return home in the latest flare-ups in chronic gang violence plaguing the Caribbean country. Who Will Lead Haiti?

The idea that military dominance must be pursued in Asia is deeply ingrained in U.S. foreign and defense policy. This presumption risks becoming even more entrenched as leaders in both political parties fear slipping behind Beijing. But a balancing approach constitutes neither appeasement nor defeatism. It is perhaps the only fiscally sustainable way to protect U.S. interests in the region for decades to come. America Can’t Surpass China’s Power in Asia. But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.

 

The Israel-Hamas war has changed the Middle East: immense public anger has been stirred up, and animus toward the West could spark fresh extremism and political instability. For the region’s rulers, even those whom Washington counts as allies, the war has changed fundamental assumptions about their security and their relations with the West. The Ongoing Houthi Attacks.

 

With the frontline at a territorial stalemate, Ukraine’s chances of regaining full control of the occupied territories by force of arms in 2024 appear slim. Any armistice or freezing of the conflict would draw a line through southern and eastern Ukraine, leaving millions of Ukrainians under Russian rule. As the war grinds on, Russia has time to further consolidate its political, economic, and administrative occupation, making the eventual reintegration of these territories back into Ukraine increasingly difficult. The Quiet Transformation.

 

If 2023 is any indication, it would be far better for pragmatic U.S. policymakers to use American power to shift the course of events in the Holy Land than to hand the situation over to extremists and to the bloody dynamics they encourage. Why Peace Remains Possible.

 

Containment offers a policy blend capable of working from the fine-grained details of an AI model out to huge public programs that could mitigate vast job destruction. The New Threat.

 

The current moment is, arguably, the most sensitive in Myanmar’s modern history. The junta is the weakest it has ever been and the resistance has made unprecedented territorial, political, and military gains. Whereby the various resistance groups will need to negotiate settlements among themselves. The Future of Myanmar.

 

Great catastrophes often seem unthinkable until they happen. As the strategic environment deteriorates, it’s time to recognize how eminently thinkable global conflict has become. Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.

 

Russians believe that the timeless essence of the United States is the will to power: this clarifies the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine, and it also explains Russia’s refusal to wind down its devastating war in Ukraine. Captivating as they are, myths mislead by obscuring the awesome complexity and open-endedness of reality. Gaza Makes A Nuclear Iran More Likely.

 

A business-as-usual election campaign would not do justice to the challenges that may lie ahead. Instead, political parties need to debate fundamental strategic choices and make the defense of democracy and EU institutional reform a key part of their appeals. Preparing For American Abandonment.

The Middle East is facing a moment of reckoning. If it becomes paralyzed by the horrific bloodshed in Gaza, it could further descend into crisis and conflict. Or it can start building a different future. The Path To A Regional Order.

 

The military campaign that Israel launched in response to Hamas’s brutal October 7 attacks has killed more than 27,000 people in the Gaza Strip and injured more than 60,000 others, according to the Gaza Health Ministry. About 75 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million has been displaced. Some 400,000 people are enduring famine due to the blockade Israel has imposed on Gaza and severe restrictions on humanitarian aid that have deprived civilians of what they need to survive. This number could grow if international funding for aid falters. America’s Hypocrisy on Gaza.

Washington and its allies face many potential geopolitical catastrophes over the next decade, but nearly all pale in comparison to what would ensue if China annexed or invaded Taiwan. Japan Defense And China Springboard.

 

The most contested ground of the Russian Civil War, was a line of supply for the White shadow government that was fought over by partisans and controlled by the Czechoslovak Legion of ex-prisoners of war. From Moscow To China.

Handel Celebration Concert | The English Concert, Händelfestspielorchester Halle, Howard Arman

 

 

Adagios from Romantic Piano Concertos

Klassik am Odeonsplatz mit Valery Gergiev, Daniil Trifonov und den Münchner Philharmonikern; Daniil Trifonov played Beethoven's piano concerto no. 5. As many as 8.000 people joined.

Advocates of a renewed push for a two-state solution will claim that it is the most realistic option. No matter how the war in Gaza ends, it is improbable that a two-state solution - or an equitable one-state solution, for that matter - will be on offer. Israel And Hamas.

 

Given the precedents over centuries of Chinese philosophy for the kind of synthesis Xi is attempting, it is curious that he relies so heavily on very ancient sources. President Xi's Thought.

 

The Russian-Ukraine war will end when one side believes it is no longer worth the effort and looks to cut its losses. That decision will be the consequence not only of military factors but also of economic, social, and political ones. Why The War Might Defy Expectations.

 

It is awkward timing for a book extolling Israeli military prowess. On October 7. Israel’s armed forces were caught by surprise, suffering a terrorist attack that resulted in the bloodiest day for Israel since its independence in 1948 and the bloodiest for Jews anywhere since the Holocaust. How Israel Fights.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have announced they are “expanding ground operations” in the Gaza Strip, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari. In a televised news briefing on Friday, he warned residents of Gaza City to move south, where there will be “better conditions.” Meaning an invasion seems now imminent.

U.S. Strikes Targets In Syria.

 

As a result, arguably, it was not just the economically deprived who voted for Brexit. Garton Ash reports that an old friend of his voted Leave; his father, he’s sure, would have done the same. Today, the British are paying the price for a failure of politicians – and intellectuals – to transform people’s mental map of where Britain truly belongs. When Europe Fell Apart.

 

Understanding the problem is just the first step. To solve it – to balance the need for speed with the need for safety – policymakers will have to implement better approaches to accelerating adoption and ensuring safety. Otherwise, Americans risk being caught in spiraling AI dangers and declining U.S. power and influence. AI is already at war; How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform The Military.

 

Israel will require a long and painful healing to regain its balance, its defense posture, and its composure. But first and foremost, it will need to come to terms with the fact that this war is different from any it has fought in many years and that it must transform its approach to security. The End Of Israel’s Gaza Illusions.

 

Since war broke out last month, Hezbollah – an Iranian-backed Islamist group – has launched rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones into Israeli territory, killing and injuring IDF soldiers; Israel has responded in kind, killing dozens of Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. On Friday, Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s support for Hamas but stopped short of committing his group to becoming more deeply involved in the war. Yet he indicated that could change if the conflict continues. Duelling Speeches.

 

According to the Israeli military, various Palestinian groups, including Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and staged the surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, are believed to be holding more than 240 hostages. The Protests In Israel.

 

The Dalai Lama is an honorary citizen of Canada, and thus the government has the responsibility to protect his religious freedom. It is also important for Buddhist countries such as South Korea and several members of ASEAN to protect the traditions and customs of Buddhism. The Next Dalai Lama.

 

Hard power is a critical element of the United States’ efforts to uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. It is a variable in the equation, however, and not the solution. Once More The Question Of Taiwan.

 

There seems to be an appetite for the United Nations to maintain its role of promoting global security, even if it takes on a more limited operational involvement in conflict than it has in the past. Rather than deploying its own forces, the UN could support other crisis managers, namely regional organizations and even individual countries. How The World Lost Faith In The UN.

 

Israel’s actions will unavoidably pose a great risk to its forces, to innocent Palestinians in Gaza, and to the hostages. Destroying Hamas’s tunnel network is the most difficult aspect of the Israeli military’s mission today, but it is also among its most important. It is at least as important as the elimination of Hamas’s chain of command. The No Blueprint Assault.

The region is suffering from a precipitously brutal coarsening of its politics. When it comes to the Palestinians, the Qataris are true to their principles in support of Palestinian justice and rights, yet, can be constructive, but the effort to win the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A Meeting In Doha?

 

Despite its military superiority, Israel never succeeded in eradicating the PLO. Instead, the IDF’s primary accomplishments were killing tens of thousands of civilians; fragmenting Palestinian groups into smaller cells that spent years conducting hit-and-run operations; inspiring the rise of a new Lebanese militant party, Hezbollah; and losing over 1,000 of its own citizens in an occupation that stretched until 2000. It Is A Pattern That Is Already Playing Out Again.

 

Experience suggests that there is no perfect formulaic response to terrorism, only less painful and more productive responses. Many Israelis and Palestinians are equally convinced that their victimhood justifies extreme and inhumane measures, and the rest of the world feels compelled to choose sides. The voices of those seeking peaceful outcomes by political means seem to be drowned out by those calling for revenge, punishment, and the use of indiscriminate force. But if there is a lesson to be drawn, it is that governments need to understand the limitations of repression and force. Choosing it alone can only lead to further tragedy. The Gaza Case.

The United States and select NATO members (friends of Ukraine coalition of the willing) better commit not just to long-term economic and military help but also to guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence. This undertaking would be modeled on Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which provides for immediate consultations whenever “the territorial integrity, political independence, or security” of a member is threatened. Negotiations Over Territory.

 

Israel has a few ways to eliminate Hamas’s asymmetric advantages. The country cannot reverse technological change or completely shut down pro-Hamas messaging on social media. But Israel does have the power to react to Hamas’s terror attack strategically, and with restraint. Doing so can sap Hamas of much of its power. What Does It Mean To Defeat A Terrorist Group?

 

As the sun went down on Friday, October 6, Israelis began preparing for Shabbat. For some, their weekend plans were not particularly restful; this would be the fortieth consecutive Saturday on which thousands would take to the streets of Tel Aviv to Protest The Netanyahu Government.

 

Containing Russia should be conceptualized - and celebrated - as a steady continuum of action that started before February 2022 and came into its own with the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv and battlefield advances in the fall of 2022. Containment, by definition, can deliver only a partial victory, and for this reason, ups and downs in public sentiment in countries allied with Ukraine are to be expected. Like In The First World War?

 

One of Netanyahu’s worst mistakes was to view the Palestinian problem purely in security terms as if the politics behind the conflict could be ignored. That, of course, led to the blind spot that helped make the Hamas attacks so deadly. But as an IDF man, Gantz seems likely to view the Palestinian problem in much the same way - as a security threat to be contained rather than an acknowledgment of the Palestinian right to self-determination. Why Israel Won’t Change.

 

Fighting resumed in Gaza early Friday local time after Hamas and Israel failed to announce an agreement on extending the ceasefire before it expired.The big picture: The renewed fighting comes after a seven-day pause during which Hamas more than 100 hostages, including two Americans, and Israel released 240 Palestinians from Israeli jails. Israel also allowed more aid trucks and fuel into Gaza to help address the dire humanitarian crisis.

Russians are not ready to die for Putin. In 2018 and 2020, Putin’s ratings fell due to an unpopular decision to increase the retirement age, and then because of the effects of the pandemic; it is possible that other new hits to his popularity will occur in the coming months. Indeed, in the mood of both the public and the elites, there is an invisible yet discernible expectation of such events. For most, however, the yearning is more basic. They desire to end “all this” - meaning getting rid of war - as quickly as possible and begin to live better, more safely, and more peacefully. But it is unlikely that this will happen without regime change. Too Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.

 

Enter Napoleon:

 

The New Cold War? Like Soviet intelligence during the last century, Chinese agencies are waging a persistent, integrated, and asymmetric onslaught on Western countries. But Where Is This Going?

U.N. Chief Demands Immediate Cease-Fire in Gaza. 

 

The Story How Hardeep Singh Nijjar Was Killed In Canada, September 2023.

 

Amazing, in the open right in the Center of Munich:

 

The State of The World in Focus - The Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the most enduring and complex geopolitical issues of modern times (for a more detailed description see 11 December above. Its ramifications go beyond the borders of Israel and the Palestinian territories, influencing international policy, shaping global alliances, and igniting passionate debates on human rights, sovereignty, and justice. (See more on that above).

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) says 36 percent of Gaza households are now experiencing “severe hunger.” The Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

 

In the following in-depth research, we show how the National Socialist leadership's preoccupation with the “Jewish Bolshevik” peril stressing that this and worse would in Germany “occur with the same methodicalness as in Russia” unless the Germans realized that “one has to fight now if one wants to live.” Resistance to “Jewish Bolshevism,” cast in terms of a life and death struggle, formed a central tenet of the National Socialist ideology. As is evidenced, Hitler compared German conditions with those in the Soviet Union, claiming that the Jews were inciting the masses to the "final blow against the state" in Germany, "like in Soviet Russia." A Life For The Tsar.

 

Even India's imperative to move from regional to global power necessitates force projection capabilities on the maritime front. For India, maritime security has become a more significant focus since Beijing launched its so-called String of Pearls strategy – a push to build military and commercial assets along the Indian Ocean. However, this strategy has been largely unsuccessful, one reason Beijing has been trying to keep India focused on its shared border in the Himalayas instead of its southern flank. India’s Massive Military Restructuring.

 

The incisive UN Arab Human Development reports from the early years of this century warned that an Arab state system lagging in human development and with all its other socioeconomic ills, was unsustainable - foreshadowing the uprisings a few years later. Today, however, the challenges have only grown worse. The Middle East now faces the scars of war, the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid population growth, widespread youth unemployment, and uncontrolled urbanization, not to mention climate change and the nascent transition to clean energy. No government in the region is currently capable of seriously confronting these issues. Why a Spate Of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.

 

The Chinese economy’s affliction with economic long COVID presents an opportunity for U.S. policymakers to change strategy. Instead of trying to contain China’s growth at great cost to their economy, American leaders can let Xi do their work for them and position their country as a better alternative and a welcoming destination for Chinese economic assets. The End Of China’s Economic Miracle.

 

Germany’s new China strategy is an essential step toward a more realistic assessment of Germany’s economic vulnerabilities as it becomes dangerously exposed to disruptions caused by or emanating from China. With its focus on financial risks and only secondary consideration of hard security issues, it is in danger of being quickly overtaken in a rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.

 

Further, focused planning for how free markets might be used against free countries will allow the United States and its allies to prevent economic disruption better. As in traditional national security, having a strategy is a far better deterrent than not being prepared. How To Reduce The Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.

 

Western policymakers need to bake potential miscalculations into their analysis and commit to being open-minded, even if doing so challenges their worldview. Leaders will frequently ignore the advice given to them or overestimate their abilities and miscalculate risks. In other words, leaders will only sometimes be guided by level-headed rationalism, regardless of what outside observers think. It is a mistake for intelligence analysts and policymakers to assume otherwise. Why It’s So Hard To Forecast Authoritarian Aggression.

 

Given the war’s current trajectory and that Ukraine cannot be particular about NATO membership, its leaders may have to accept what they deem unacceptable. How To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.

 

As commented on four days ago, the perplexing aftermath of the Wagner mutiny shows Putin is more vulnerable than ever. And where Putin saw the invasion of Ukraine as an act of destiny, fulfilling a historical script. Instead, the war has left Russia grasping for certainties in an exceedingly uncertain world. The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.

 

 

The world has seen the devastation and tragedy of dysfunctional migration systems. A safe, fair, and orderly migration policy in the United States is starting to emerge; if it succeeds, it could serve as an example of what might be possible elsewhere. The Formula For Managing Migration.

 

Calls for revolution and transformation have been commonplace in the generations after World War II defense debate. They have mostly not fared well in light of observed experience in that time. After a year and a half of war in Ukraine, there is no reason to think they will be proven right this time. Back In The Ukraine Trenches.

 

The situation on the island of Maui is catastrophic, with hundreds of deaths for sure. It also deserves a mention of what formerly was a country, particularly the Island of Hawaii and its capital Honolulu on Oahu. The True Story Of Hawaii.

 

Two years after the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan Still Threatens The Region And Beyond.

A little over two years ago, a by us personal known reader (having done his due diligence) sent us an alarming detailed expose about the misuse of Cryptocurrency as funding terrorism, the war In Ukraine, laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug gangs, including an article about how someone by the name of Sam Bankman-Fried was allegedly trying to run a crypto fueled Ponzi scheme. Setting our team to work on it, we devised a five-part in-depth investigation. Whereby during 2023, Crypto ransom attacks continued to rise.  Part One, Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Part Five.

 

One of the items mentioned about the widespread crypto crime scene is the Sam Bankman-Fried was now sent to jail after his bail was revoked. In court, Judge Kaplan said: "There is probable cause to believe that the defendant has attempted to tamper with witnesses at least twice."

 

Less than a week after several liquidity pools on Curve Finance were exploited in a multi-million dollar scheme, the hacker returned 4,820 alETH and 2,258 ETH to Alchemix, worth around $12.7 million. An Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.

 

The development of robust AI systems is inevitable, and people everywhere need to be prepared for what such technologies will do to their communities and the broader world. Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.

 

It is essential for countries to elucidate the goals of collaboration and to articulate what the partnership needs to be clarified. Security cooperation and contingency planning are not geared to produce collective defense commitments, as with NATO. This message will matter to the reception closer to the trilateral alignment received in certain regions. How To Boost Cooperation.

 

The twenty-first century will throw up few challenges as daunting or opportunities as promising as AI presents. In the last century, policymakers began to build a global governance architecture that, they hoped, would equal the tasks of the age. They must build a new governance architecture to contain and harness this era's most formidable and potentially defining force. There Is No Time To Waste.

 

Russia is now home to a dizzying array of nationalist movements, and it is hard to say what form Russian nationalism will take after Putin. But if it takes a welcome form that focuses on building solidarity and sharing power with Russia’s other nationalities, it would offer a fleeting opportunity to address the core driver of Russia’s recent aggression: the conflation of greatness with imperial ambitions. Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.

 

Ötzi the Iceman, named after the valley in which he was found, became world-famous because his body had been remarkably well pre­served by the intense cold, making him the oldest European mummified human. Scientists began examining Ötzi, and soon a startling series of discoveries emerged. A Sort Of 'Out Of Africa.'

 

The two indictments this month, one federal and one state, shore up the surprisingly fragile pillars of American democracy. Americans and the world will be watching what comes next - the pleas, the evidence, the defense, and the verdicts. Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?

 

To be clear, the Hawaii of today maintains a very close relationship with Japan, including its yearly (briefly halted during Covid) Festival of Pacific Arts & Culture, initially organized by Japan. What we do here, however, is take a historical look at what was envisioned as a self-sufficient bloc governed by the WWII Japanese leadership. The Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.

 

Initially, Tomáš Masaryk introduced Coudenhove-Kalergi(RCK) to Edvard Beneš, the Czechoslovak foreign minister, who also supported the thrust of RCK’s argument. More importantly, Beneš gave him a Czechoslovak diplomatic passport to facilitate his future travel around the continent to propagate his political program of closer integration. Like many Wilsonians, RCK had initially been enthusiastic about the proposal to create the League of Nations. But, in the way it was set up, he could see the problems that prevented it from working as intended. He claimed it was ‘neither truly global nor European’. Bolshevik Russia defeated Germany, for instance, and states from afar, such as Argentina and Mexico, were not members. Even the United States had failed to join because its Senate blocked ratification of its accession, a dramatic first step along the road of American isolationism. Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.

 

Vladimir Putin Christmas Downer.

Russia Redux.

Taiwan Attack.

More Vital Than Ever.

Russia Expert Olde Samorodni Predicts.

USA China.

Himalaya.

The Question Of Taiwan.

India's concern about the ruling party’s continued ability to balance its need to leverage religion to maintain its unique position in the Indian political landscape and govern what will soon be the world’s largest nation. India’s Ruling Party Is Losing Control.

 

Competition could see the United States and China engage in a technology race that pushes the frontiers of human knowledge to new heights and creates innovative solutions to transnational problems. It could also mean the two rivals cultivate internally peaceful blocs of like-minded states, using nonviolent means, including aid provision, to try to win hearts and minds and expand their influence at the margins. This rivalry is alright for the world and better than the great-power wars that have characterized most modern history. Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.

 

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group who launched a mutiny against the Kremlin two months ago, is believed to have died along with nine other people in a plane crash in Russia on Wednesday.

In the end, the Wagner mutiny lasted less than 24 hours. But the toxic cocktail of jealousy, rivalry, and ambition that gave rise to it has been months, if not years, in the making. Putin’s enemies don’t die of natural causes. The Wagner Paramilitary Group.

 

 

The Special Operations Executive In France And Elsewhere.

All political transformation in Russia has come from the top. It is possible that a new group of reformers could emerge from among the moderate members of the existing elite - liberals who are still serving in government or the civil service. This new group would have to decide how radically they want to change the country. What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.

 

Reducing harmful pollution is the only way to avoid the worst climate impacts. However, negotiators must expand the stage to include adaptation and ensure these two approaches go together. The effects of a changing climate are already here, devastating communities worldwide. Preparing For A Future Of Extreme Weather.

 

BRI debt will continue to impede debt-relief efforts, undermining the economic health of indebted developing countries and the effectiveness of the IMF. Only a reformed IMF can reverse the damage - to developing countries and themselves. The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.

 

In Recently, a quiet revolution with significant consequences for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs has occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. The EU has already proved capable of innovating and reinventing itself – Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.

 

Over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The following way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is to ensure they know the West is prepared to support them. The West Needs A Strategy For After The Counteroffensive.

 

A quiet revolution with significant consequences for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs has recently occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.

 

Today, we will dive into a subject when people hoped to commute with death. Today, this claim is made by Theresa Caputo (a known fraud) performing. There had, of course, been other mediums more sophisticated than Caputo. A good case is the acclaimed H.P. Blavatsky, who, given her time, used a degree system. The Secret Doctrine And The Inner Group.

 

Tokyo Aims To Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.

 

Maintaining the status quo of the current global order and resisting the democratization of its governance, as the systemic leader the United States and its closest allies seem to be trying to do (with China and Russia also resisting substantive changes to the UN Security Council), will only heighten the impatience for serious reform. The World Outside The Great Powers.

 

Washington should now understand that Moscow is geared up for a long war over the future of Ukraine and the international order and will use global levers of power and influence to hurt Ukraine and the West. The effects of Russia’s actions will not be trivial. Nor will the Kremlin’s ruthlessness necessarily turn non-Western countries against Russia. The sooner U.S. policymakers appreciate the global dimensions of the war in Ukraine, the sooner they can engineer the failure of Russia’s designs for Ukraine. Ukraine And Next.

 

Visiting the Sixtine Chapel in Rome:

 

In the 1950s, a psychologist named Bertram Forer facilitated this experiment with students from his introductory to psychology course. The text you rated earlier is very similar to the one Forer used back then, inspired by newspaper astrology sections. He gave the exact text to each of his students, telling them they were the results of a personality test they had previously filled out and, therefore, very personalized. When all the students received the text with their scores, Forer asked them to raise their hands if they thought it had done an excellent job of describing their personality. The students were baffled when they saw that almost all hands were up. Forer then started to read one of the texts out loud. The students laugh, realizing that all the texts are the same. Forer now had proof of our faulty judgment and how easily we can be fooled into approving pseudo-scientific descriptions or predictions about ourselves. But Astrology’s Politics Are More Complicated Than Any Simple Link To Left Or Right.

 

Adversaries would recognize that they cannot simply hold out and hope U.S. policymakers change their minds. Echoing William Jennings Bryan’s three presidential defeats a century ago, Trump’s third popular vote loss in 2024 would signal that isolationist and populist sentiments in the United States are trending toward remission and Bracing For Trump 2.0.

Today, the mood in the Islamic Republic, compared with just a year ago, is triumphant. Khameneis republic has survived sanctions and internal protests. With the help of its great-power allies, it has steadied its economy and started to replenish its defenses. A nuclear bomb is within reach. When the supreme leader decides to cross that threshold, there is little reason to believe that Israel or the United States intends to stop him with force. Iran’s New Patrons.

Ukraine will need patience from its partners as it tries to wear down its enemy. The West will need to recalibrate its expectations to match reality, which is that this is a war of attrition. In the near term, NATO states must continue transferring weapons and other capabilities to Ukraine. They will also need to give Kyiv political and military support for the long term. What Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.

 

 

The South China Sea is undoubtedly one of the world's most strategically and economically essential waterways with militarized implications. The biggest concern about China’s military expansion is how it ties into plans to annex Taiwan. The Trouble With The South China Sea.

 

This creative model emanates from an African-led institution and could set a compelling precedent for other development banks and policymakers worldwide. By emphasizing collaborations like these, the next time a pandemic threatens the world, more countries will be ready to respond and rebuild. That would benefit not just the global North or South - it would be a win for everyone. New Resentment How Rich Countries’ Selfish Pandemic Responses Stoked Distrust.

 

China spent $2.2 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies last year, several times more than the following country, the United States ($760 billion). Notably, despite the costs of its war in Ukraine, Russia spent $420 billion. China, the U.S., Russia, India, and the European Union accounted for 57 percent of all fossil fuel subsidies.

By recognizing and ignoring Russian propaganda and instead studying and identifying the actual vulnerabilities of Russia’s military, the United States and its allies may be able to develop new and better approaches that could allow them to help Ukraine prevail and hasten the end of the war, just as the United States did with the Soviets’ war in Afghanistan. What The West Still Gets Wrong About Russia’s Military.

 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his entire delegation have been forced to extend their stay in New Delhi for the G20 summit by an extra day after his aircraft broke down, Canadian officials confirmed. This happened after Prime Minister Narendra Modi conveyed to Trudeau strong concerns about anti-India elements promoting secessionism from Canadian soil and inciting violence against diplomats.

 

Technology is political. At times, this subtle but omnipresent politicization is nearly invisible. It shouldn’t be. Social media is the most recent reminder that technology and political organization cannot be divorced. States and technologies are intimately tied together. The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.

The containment of Russia and the preservation of Ukrainian sovereignty are first-order Western interests. They should not depend on images of horrific violence, constant media attention, or the charisma of any Ukrainian politician. Western indifference and impatience are Putin’s ultimate weapons in this war. Without them, he faces a strategic dead end. Will The West Abandon Ukraine?

 

Universities can build bridges through education, research, and joint problem-solving. Because they employ the shared common language of science and scholarship, they are sometimes the only institutions still able to build those bridges when dialogue seems impossible. Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting World.

 

The lack of escalation in Ukraine serves as a reminder that in limited wars, patience is a virtue. A go-slow approach has allowed NATO countries to provide a level of military support that was unthinkable at the war’s start. The risks of escalation have not been overblown. Instead, gradualism has allowed the West to learn - and, in some ways, stretch - the limits of the war. The Missing Escalation In Ukraine.

 

If China’s economic woes worsen, its leaders will probably become more sensitive to perceived external challenges, especially on issues like Taiwan. Increased pressure on China could easily backfire and motivate Beijing to become more aggressive to demonstrate its resolve to other states despite its internal difficulties. More Likely To React To External Threats.

 

While Putin and Kim Jong Un's meeting will prompt talk of a new authoritarian axis in northeast Asia, there’s little to suggest that this relationship's recent surge has deeper foundations than each country’s immediate strategic interests. Moscow may seek to revise the global order in its favor, but enlisting North Korea as a partner in that endeavor will be of limited use. What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.

 

Brought about by the inexorable rise of Artificial intelligence and the end of nations, a crisis will take the form of a vast, existential-level bind, a set of brutal choices and trade-offs representing the most crucial dilemma of the twenty-first century. The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part Two.

 

The arrival of the Spanish caused a massive demographic collapse in the population centers of the New World, particularly in greater Mexico and more so in Peru. A century later, the arrival of the French and the English caused similar population collapses on the East Coast of North America, which gradually spread west across the continent. The Spanish administration of Hispaniola and other Caribbean islands proved an unmitigated disaster for the Indians of the region, as these were subjected to forced labor, forced relocation, wanton cruelty, and even enslavement at the hands of ill-governed adventurers. The Spanish conquest of the Aztecs and the Incas was a civilizational disaster that permanently derailed the autonomous development of New World culture. In the Spanish conquest of Mexico, one hundred thousand died from the direct consequences of war, and the actual number might have been double or triple this amount. The Truth About European Colonialism In The New World.

 

Claims by the former Brazilian president’s ex-secretary prompt calls for alleged right-wing conspirators to be brought to justice. A former Bolsonaro aide said in plea bargain testimony that the then-president talked with the commanders of Brazil's army, navy, and air force about overthrowing the results of last year's election won by Lula. Bolsonaro Redux.

 

In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant created the Department of Justice to counter the terrorism carried out by the Ku Klux Klan and other violent groups active in Southern states. But a new domestic terrorism law seems a small step by comparison, and it would send a resounding message: there is no place for political violence in a democracy. White Supremacist Terrorism.

 

Cantonese and non-Mandarin languages in China, writ large, have lost a strong advocate, and others who seek to promote language rights will become wary of doing so. And the effects of this chilling of speech are wide-reaching. Beijing Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of Mandarin.

 

Both political parties deserve credit for this paradigm shift in trade policy and for the USMCA, which is already doing so much for the United States. The key now is to hold steady, mindful that powerful interests at home and overseas will diligently seek to undermine the agreement. Washington must be equally diligent in sticking to its new course on trade. The New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.

 

The EU’s most challenging is also consequential. Russia is threatening the peace and stability of Europe, and bringing Moldova and Ukraine into the EU is critical to strengthening the continent’s east. That, in turn, will protect Europe as a whole. The Promise And Peril Of EU Expansion.

 

Xi and Putin, cocooned by yes men, have already made serious errors that have cost their countries dearly. In the long run, they have damaged their countries. However, they remain a danger that the United States must face for the foreseeable future. Even in the best of worlds - one in which the U.S. government had a supportive public, energized leaders, and a coherent strategy - these adversaries would pose a formidable challenge. But the domestic scene today is far fromorderly. Explaining America’s Global Role.

 

Six young people from areas in Portugal ravaged by wildfires and heatwaves took 32 European governments to court on Wednesday, arguing Their Failure To Act Fast Enough On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.

 

What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The Palestinians.

Enemy of the Reich: The Noor Inayat Khan Story.

 

Amid a growing outcry over women’s rights abuses in Iran, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded jailed Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. What Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.

 

While Washington has been reaching out, the ball is now in Beijing’s court. Rejecting such dialogues and merely continuing to beef up the PLA risks undermining the security that Beijing seeks. Will Xi’s Military Modernization Pay Off?

 

On Saturday, barrages of rockets were fired from the blockaded Gaza Strip. The armed wing of Palestinian group Hamas said it was behind the fire, claiming its militants had launched more than 5,000 rockets. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

 

Regardless, a proper understanding of Russia's threat must begin with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But at the moment, his military cannot fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the constraints that should bind the debate about the extent of the threat. What Does Putin Want?

Media in Israel, citing rescue service officials, said at least 300 Israelis were killed, including 26 soldiers, and more than 1,800 wounded. An update on Israeli figures was expected on Sunday. The Israeli military said a “substantial” number of civilians and soldiers were being held hostage in Gaza. Footage circulating on social media showed terrified captives, including mothers huddling with their children, in the custody of Palestinian militant groups:

Below is a destroyed police station that was overrun by Hamas militants in Sderot, Israel:

 

The Palestinian group Hamas carried out a surprise attack on Israel on an unprecedented scale.

At least four civilians were killed while in the custody of Hamas, just feet from where armed militants had been escorting them near the Gaza border, videos obtained and geolocated show. The Why And How Of The Surprise Attack On Israel.

Iran played a role in helping plot the latest round of Hamas attacks. Like its Hezbollah proxy, Iran sees Israel as fundamentally illegitimate. It may seek to disrupt regional trends, such as potential Saudi-Israel normalization (which Tehran sees, with considerable justification, as designed to counter Iran), by promoting anti-Israel violence. Hezbollah, Israel, And Tehran.

 

A Palestinian man taking a selfie next to a burning Israeli tank:

 

Today, we are tracing the origins of the current situation in Gaza and Israel. Gaza Redux Part One.

 

As tensions in the Middle East boil over, great-power competition - classically understood - cannot be the world’s sole focal point and means of analysis. This is not an era of strengthening international order. It is not merely another era of great-power competition. It is a moment of anarchically fragmenting power, an age of great-power distraction. Crises In The Middle East.

 

How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.

The scenes unfolding in Israel and Gaza mark a new chapter in the Middle East conflict. Today’s great powers, China, Europe, Russia, and the United States, will undoubtedly have a role to play in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Whether any of these powers will be able to resolve or contain that conflict is far less specific. Hamas Rise To Power.

 

The main reason this is happening now is the prospect of the U.S.-Saudi-Israeli deal. Hamas understands this is a huge transformative event, and they are trying to create a circumstance where it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to do it right. Nevertheless, it is time to stop Israel from creating a disaster. Time To Step Back From The Brink.

The next stage is coming’: Israel issues warning as residents flee Gaza assault US urges restraint amid bombing of civilian evacuation convoy that left a reported 70 people dead, including women and children.

 

Further to our article from yesterday, the U.S. needs to have conversations with Israel that only the United States, Israel’s closest partner, can have. As significant a threat as the proposed judicial reform was (and is) to Israel’s democracy, events of the past week have revealed that an unresolved Palestinian issue poses a far greater one. Why Washington Should Restrain Israeli Military Action In Gaza.

We take a more comprehensive approach to follow up on our previous article. Only a genuinely unified political leadership will fortify Israel’s democracy for the complex military operations ahead, giving it the domestic mandate necessary to build a winning strategy and end Hamas for good. A Strategy Beyond Revenge.

 

Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Saudi Arabia becomes critical to the success of the transfer of Gaza from Israeli control to the UN and the subsequent consolidation of the Palestinian Authority’s hold over both the West Bank and Gaza. Many hurdles stand in the way of such an arrangement coming to pass. But one purpose of diplomacy is to probe intentions and spur the consideration of a wider range of options in a contingency. This is what the moment requires. The alternative is Gaza as an eternal dystopia, with violence metastasizing around the broader region and states less able to deal with social and environmental disarray. Return The Gaza Strip To Palestinians.

 

While President El-Sisi and U.S. President Biden agreed on the Delivery of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, today, British Prime Minster Sunak arrives in Tel Aviv. The Israeli military says it ‘destroyed hundreds of Hamas terrorist’ sites; British PM expected to ask that Britons in Gaza be allowed to leave. Following Biden's recent speech, the U.S. also must reinvent itself to get economic security right in a highly interdependent world marked by great-power severe competition. The Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.

 

As we show in this article, the situation on the ground of the Israel-Hamas war is fluid, and changes to the strategic calculus in Israel, Iran, or both countries may lead their leaders to believe that avoiding wider conflict poses a greater danger to their survival than confronting one another in war. Escalation Could Set Israel And Iran On A Collision Course.

 

In the center of Munich, Daniil Trifonov playing Beethoven's Piano Concerto No 5.:

 

It seems Erdogan is once again ready to burn bridges with Israel, even though in early 2022, he had begun an attempt to normalize Turkey’s relationship with the country, hosting Israeli President Isaac Herzog and once again exchanging ambassadors. In doing so, Erdogan hoped to break Ankara from its relative state of isolation in the region and win over pro-Israel figures in Washington so that the U.S. Congress would look more favorably upon Ankara and remove its strong objections to selling Turkey weapons: Erdogan And The Hamas-Israel War.

 

Yom Kippur War. Misinformation About The Israel-Hamas War Is Flooding Social Media.

 

 

A ground assault into Gaza is likely, with dire consequences. But as every soldier knows, it may still be necessary and start very soon. Israel Enter Gaza Imminent.

It is impossible to know for sure how an enemy will react in war, primarily because leaders are incentivized to misrepresent their actual redlines. Fighting nuclear-armed adversaries is a dangerous game of brinkmanship. The Return Of Nuclear Escalation.

 

In the immediate term, Israeli and especially U.S. leaders need to secure the safety of Gazan civilians, 1.4 million of whom have already been displaced. The United States should partner with the United Nations to create clear humanitarian corridors and protected zones. What To Do About Gaza, And What Gazans Think.

 

 

 

The importance and distinctiveness of the evolution of Western European right-wing populism become particularly clear when compared with comparable developments in the United States. The election of Donald Trump in 2016 turbocharged these trends. How To Understand Extreme Right-Wing Parties.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

According to the Russian constitution, this is Putin’s last term in office, and he is obliged to step down in 2024, but will he? And what drives Putin? Several lessons have become clear in the two decades that have seen the rise of Putin. Putin's Challenge To The West.

 

The evening picture underneath was taken on Russian National day 12 June 2022. Whereby as we will see in the following article the reality is that Russia can’t avoid trying to reassert power, and the West can’t avoid trying to resist. But in the end, Russia can’t win. Russia was and remains a country of constant crises and constant wars, while the primary motivation to think about the future stemmed from the economic crises of 1998 and 2008–2009. Putin’s strategy has enabled Russia to reappear on the world stage in unanticipated ways that will continue to challenge the world. Whereby It is also important to remember that the Kremlin does not speak for all Russian citizens.The Putin Challenge.

Putin has repeatedly accused Ukraine of occupying ancestral Russian lands and blamed the early Bolsheviks for bungling the border between the Russian and Ukrainian Soviet republics. Mutual hostility will not subside because there are conflicting geopolitical interests, and both sides are raising the stakes. The Why Of The Road To War.

 

Analysts today fear that Ukraine could be losing the upper hand in the Donbas, leaving it vulnerable to being wholly seized by Russia. As reported widely the last bridge to the city of Sievierodonetsk fell as street battles raged, and some Western officials questioned Ukraine’s ability to keep resisting the Russian onslaught and if we are looking at a frozen conflict that could last a long time. Today US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is poised to lead a working group of nearly 50 countries to discuss the crisis. Ukraine receives only 10% of the weapons that it requested from the West, says Defence Min. Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.

 

Pictured below, taking weeks to organize, the leaders of  Germany, France, and Italy, arrived in Kyiv today. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops holed up alongside civilians in a Sievierodonetsk chemical plant ignored a Russian ultimatum to lay down their arms, Why Ukraine Reached A Pivotal Moment.

 

As we will show that the Russia sanctions don’t have the desired effect shouldn’t be a surprise, it is quite unrealistic to expect that economic sanctions against a great power-and that would be Russia today-will substantially deter a policy course that the leadership has set upon. Why Do Russian Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the end of "the era of the unipolar world" in a combative speech that lambasted Western countries at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Friday. Meanwhile, the UK will not yield to 'Ukraine fatigue, says PM on return from Kyiv. The latter referred to potential fatigue which is what our today's article is about. Why Putin's Path To Negotiate Lies Through Battleground Defeats.

 

Taiwan was never involved with the Chinese tributary system; neither were the Chinese to any significant degree living in Taiwan until the Dutch imported them as laborers. But if the intractable issues could spark a hot war between the United States and China, Taiwan is at the top of the list. Geopolitical Consequences Of Taiwan War.

 

 

Weaponed with a map showing the proposed Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, Russian artillery doctrines are frozen in time but part of a tradition emphasizing great firepower and technological innovation that is centuries-old and informed by experience in Russia’s recent wars. The Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight.

 

The Glastonbury festival may be little known by attendees like Greta Thunberg or today's Diana Ross; for many true believers it involves the Celtic revival and the H.Grail. The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.

 

This week's Nato summit in Madrid comes at a critical time in the alliance's 73-year history. On the eve of the summit in Madrid, Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced what he called "a fundamental shift in the alliance's deterrence and defense", strengthening its defenses on its eastern borders and raising its rapid response force to more than 300,000 troops. A Global Cold War.

 

Western allies vowed on Tuesday (28 June) to boost Nato’s defenses and back Ukraine to the end as Moscow demanded Kyiv’s surrender. And clearly, Russia’s assault on Ukraine has shaken the Western public out of their complacency. A Need To Build A Better World Order.

 

Pictured below the EU flag is been brought to the plenary hall of Ukraine's parliament. To permanently stay adjacent to the Ukraine flag in front.

 

 

According to Putin, the war could last long. Following the NATO meeting on June 30, they would stick with Ukraine as long as it takes. The Key To Victory In Ukraine.

 

Evidenced by the Russian book market already since 2015 prepared Russians for a full-scale war against Ukraine, NATO, and the West, and promoted Stalinism and nazism, and how this was ignored by the West.

 

The invasion of Ukraine has not only accelerated that country’s departure from Russia’s sphere of influence, it also seems to have other post-Soviet countries warily eyeing the exit. This Is Not A Victory.

 

Putin is overconfident. He has surrounded himself with yes men, and that’s one problem when it comes to convincing him the cost for Russia is too high. The other problem is that he views his soldiers as just another massive horde of serfs that can be sacrificed. Major losses don’t deter him, not yet, anyway. In order to be deterred, he needs to have some empathy for his own people. He Has None.

 

 

The road to a cease-fire in Ukraine is full of pitfalls. There are Ukraine’s Implausible theories of victory and the fantasy of Russian defeat. The Case For Diplomacy.

 

European Union leaders have expressed interest in investing in Libyan energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on Russian gas. However, Wagner’s presence positions the Kremlin as a spoiler in these future calculations. Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.

 

Putin’s persistent implicit threats of nuclear escalation are designed to leverage Western fears of the war in Ukraine. Such worries have damaged, delaying the delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine. Putin is not facing the threat of being cornered in Ukraine. The domestic cohorts Putin faces in this war Putin is not facing the threat of being cornered in Ukraine. Western Fears Of Putin.

Underneath a Ukrainian grain field, pierced by thousands of Russian artillery shells. Russian war on Ukraine is an attempt to erase the whole nation.

 

The persistent inability of states and markets to resolve concerns about labor, equity, environmental degradation, and the corporate abuse of power. With calls for "deglobalization" advancing, the arrangement could encourage a new, more sustainable model of globalization, one that doesn't sacrifice the common good on the altar of the market. Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Putin’s rapidly growing security state seems closer to its Stalinist predecessor. The militarization of the Federal Security Service (FSB), previously the KGB, its recruitment camps, and increasingly open and brutal tactics suggest that Putin is looking more closely at the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD). A totalitarian state forged this agency in wartime. The Kremlin is priming the country for the prolonged war. Russias Fifth Service.

 

Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov (who officials say was working for what previously was called the KGB, now the Federal Security Service FSB) was charged over accusations that he orchestrated a yearslong effort to puppeteer political groups in Florida, Georgia, and California to sow discord in the US spread pro-Russia propaganda and meddling in American elections.

There was talk that Russia is opening the Black Sea for Ukrainian ships and, in exchange, restrictions on Russian grain exports are being lifted, yet the agreement won’t last long.

 

When the Chinese Communist Party meets, Xi will be coronated as the “People’s Leader” - a title held only by Mao Zedong and his successor, Hua Guofeng. A strengthened Xi is not going to be more moderate. He will have less to prove to his domestic audience. But he will have all the power and the opportunity he needs to pursue his “China Dream.” Xi Unleased.

The following article is about US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently went to Ukraine, met with Zelenski, and is now going to Taiwan. China, however, is protesting the visit and today is holding live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait with live ammunition. President Biden took a strong stance stating the USA would intervene with the military to defend Taiwan against China's dramatically increasing military activity. Whereby he changed his course with the Biden administration working behind the scenes to convince Pelosi of traveling to Taiwan to not insult China. What Is Happening Here?

The Ukrainian military has conceded that Russian forces have been able to make small gains near the Donetsk towns of Soledar and Vershyna in eastern Ukraine. Thus war appears static, but it can change at any moment. When battles become static, changing the shape of the playing field becomes essential. The Americans and Russians are engaged in flanking maneuvers that could change the shape of the battlefield. This Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.

 

The invasion of Ukraine caught many analysts of Russia off guard. Russian President Vladimir Putin had long been thought of as rough, tough, and brutal - but also calculating and cautious. The wild and reckless Ukrainian adventure seemed out of character. But Putin’s personal history reveals that his decision to go to war is entirely in character - and that he will likely continue it indefinitely. Convicted For The Usurpation Of Power. 

The world is witnessing its first economic war of the modern era. The war in Ukraine, spiraling inflation, and the climate emergency are affecting food security. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is complex. The Global Effects Going Forward.

So far as can be seen on the following map, in one day in the South, Ukraine has taken more territory than Russia took in the first five weeks of the Battle of Donbas:

The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire. Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion Hinges On The Coming Battle Of Kherson

As the old order disintegrates and the new one struggles to be born, the advantage lies with states that clearly understand the balance of forces and conceive of a future cooperative order that serves the common good. Nor is the rapidly shifting balance of power likely to provide the basis for a stable order for some time. Instead, the authorities will probably muddle along from crisis to crisis as their dissatisfaction with the international system and with one another grows, in the form of motion without movement. Nobody Wants The Current World Order.

Taiwan is a central point in the first island chain near China:

 

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle military exercises. The two critical questions are why Pelosi went to the island first and why Beijing cared enough to deploy its fleet. China Could Invade Taiwan.

The Kremlin has prepared to confront the West and its socio-economic model for decades. Yet the need to recruit foreign troops indicates a failure of Russian commanders, a weakness in training and motivating troops, and logistical problems. Europe is a great power if it sticks together militarily and economically. It is doing that now, but old tensions will emerge as fear of Russia dissipates. China is still a great power, albeit with an untested military and a troubled economy. When The Economic Recovery Comes.

On February 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin delivered a 56-minute televised national address where he contested Ukrainian statehood and argued that the government in Kyiv owes its territory today to the supposed generosity of the Bolsheviks, notably Vladimir Lenin. Historian Victoria Smolkin assesses Putin’s claim that modern-day Ukraine is a ‘gift’ from the Bolsheviks. Fantasy Is Not History.

 

In November, the global population is expected to reach 8 billion before climbing to 9.7 billion in 2050. India will also soon surpass China as the most populous country. Global population growth, however, is slowing. Two-thirds of the population shows lifetime fertility below the 2.1 mark per woman needed to support population growth. That said, longer life spans also contribute to global population growth. There are roughly 771 million people over 65, triple the number in 1980. This figure is expected to grow in the years ahead, particularly in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America.

The Rajapaksas practically owned Sri Lanka:

 

And then happened  this:

China won Sri Lanka’s earlier trust because of its willingness to lend money to countries shunned by the international community for their poor human rights records. Indeed, their relationship strengthened after allegations emerged in Sri Lanka of state-sponsored human rights abuses. China’s Motivations.

 

How Russia is plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine. The group has been repeatedly accused of war crimes and human rights abuses. Despite its global reach, much of the group's inner workings have remained a secret to the outside world - Putin's Private Army.

 

The following map shows how human actions are affecting outbreak risks, sometimes in surprising places, which could be a valuable tool in preventing the next pandemic.

 

Managing Soviet and later Russian threats did not have to come at the expense of engagement with the republics. Washington could have pur Russia’s objectives at the same time, adapting to the Soviet Union’s decline while also hedging against future Russian irredentism by supporting self-determination in the emerging post-Soviet states. Russia’s Security Concerns And Allay Its Anxieties.

Ein Bild, das Person, drinnen, Getränk, trinkend enthält.

Automatisch generierte Beschreibung

 

Tokyo has recently begun to focus on its military capabilities

 

 

We simply do not know whether China will attack Taiwan in this decade. But it is a reasonable presumption that Beijing is much more likely to strike if it concludes it would succeed. Significant factors indicate that it may judge this decade to be the most propitious one. Facing A Window Of Vulnerability Over Taiwan.

Ein Bild, das Person, drinnen, Boden, stehend enthält.

Automatisch generierte Beschreibung

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