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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence – Cybersecurity -
Cryptocurrency
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
B
Brazil
Buddhism
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China
- Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
D
Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International
Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
J
Japan
K
Kurds
L
Latinoamerica, see also South
America
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
N
Napoleon
NATO
North
Korea
Nuclear
Peril
O
Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
Q
Qatar
R
Russia - Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy
Agencies - Secret Intelligence Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
V
Venezuela
Venice
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
Z
Zionism
A
Afghanistan
Africa / Congo
Arab World - Arab
Spring
Archeology
Armenia
Artificial Intelligence
Asia and Cold War
Asia’s WWII
Australia
Afghanistan Still Threatens The Region And Beyond.
Why Pressure Is The Best Way.
The Forces That Could Threaten The
Taliban’s Control.
What can be said about US involvement and the current situation in
Afghanistan
What next with Afghanistan
Predicaments of Pakistan in Afghanistan
A Sort
Of 'Out Of Africa’.
The Youthful Continent.
Africa’s Ukraine
Dilemma.
From Past To Next Fifty Years.
Deep-Rooted Factors. (Part 3)
Trade,
Colonialism And Uneven Development. (Part 2)
The New
Out Of Africa Theory. (Part
1)
Belgium’s
Africa Museum Had a Racist Image. Can It Change That?
Head of UN,
Ban Ki-moon, seeks to appoint investigator for fatal crash of Dag
Hammarskjöld
Case Study:
The French Rwanda File:
South
Africa and AFRICOM
The
Hamitic theory of race and the role it played in the Rwandan Genocide:
Case Study P.1:
The Creation of Belgium
Case Study P.2:
The Start of Belgian Empirialism: When
Texas was to be a Belgian Colony
History of the former Belgian Congo
P.1:
Egypt in Central Africa
History of Central Africa
P.2:
King Leopold's Media
our earlier comment about Blood Diamonds
Saudi
Arabia Is On The Way To Becoming The Next Egypt.
Will
Saudi Arabia Get The Bomb?
The
Coming Arab Backlash.
The UAE And
Its Talest Building In The World.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Enter: Arab
Spring 2011
Göbekli Tepe revisited part three
Göbekli Tepe revisited part two
The world’s earliest cities and what it means for today
Ancient Globalization
In the
Beginning
Genes or Behavior?
The Archeology of Worldwide War and Peace
They Built
the First Temples?
The
Earliest States
Truth In History: Inventing Archeology
Case Study:
Archeology of the Middle East Today
Nationalism: Ancient Egypt, Judea, Armenia, Japan?
‘King
Arthur’
Click to enter:
Fringe Archeology Update
'Archeological
Fantasies' continue:
The Mother of all Theocratic States: Lemuria
September 2004, Cult Archeology: Civilization One Book (excerpt)
Neo Paganism
From Mircea Eliade to Carlos Castaneda
The Truth About Carlos Castaneda
The Myth of the Noble Savage
Reader Comment: The Myth of the Noble Savage
Celts and Druids Speaking
From N. Pennick to Celtic/Northern Literature
The Temple of a Nation, Stonehenge
And Who Owns Ancient Remains?
Neo-Shamanists and Pagans Today
Why We Never Found Atlantis
The Atlantis Syndrome P.1
The Atlantis Syndrome P.2
The Atlantis Syndrome P.3
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.1
Cuba's Gateway To Atlantis P.2: Cocaine
Gateway to Atlantis P.3: Seven Cities, El Dorado
Gateway to Atlantis P.4: Urheimat der Arier
Cuba's Atlantis
Why, and what happened
Major Case Study:
So what really happened in Armenia
(Updated version)
Case Study:
Armenian Genocide
Crypto in China and Beyond.
AI Large Language Models.
The New Empires Of The Internet.
Cryptocurrency And The Bankman-Fried
Case.
Bydance And TikTok.
The Test.
The New Threat.
Generative Artificial Intelligence.
How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform
The Military.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence
(AI) Part Two.
The Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.
There Is No Time To Waste.
Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.
An Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.
The Illusion Of China’s AI Prowess.
The Battle For Brains.
But There Is A Solution.
Blockchain
Analysis.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Four.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Three.
Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes Part Two.
Cryptocurrency-Based Crimes.
Tackling
The 2023 Problem Of Cybersecurity.
Weaponized Artificial Intelligence.
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
Dismantling the myths
of AI Part Two
Dismantling the myths of AI Part One
The question about current medical
efficiency and that of digital authoritarianism versus liberal democracies
Introduction
P.2 The Malay Theatre
P.3 The Vietnam Theatre
P.4 The Korean Theatre
P.5 Indonesia and China Burning
P.6 1945-1950
P.7 Vietnam War and World Decolonization.
Was the Cold War inevitable?
…investigae in the following part
Introduction: Gorbachev's Last Days
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating
the Beginning of the Cold War P.1.
Was the Cold War Predetermined? Investigating the Beginning of the Cold War
P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.1
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.2
Investigating the End of the Cold War P.3
Major Case Study:
From hot to Cold War: Asia's WWII
Genocide
In Australia.
B
Brazil
Buddhism
Bolsonaro Redux.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
Why the political climate in Brazil matters to the rest of the world
Discussion, Buddhism
A new understanding of
Buddhist's past and at least one possible future
C
Celts
China
China
- Movie Industry
China
- Taiwan - Hong Kong
China
/ US - South-East Asia
China
- Oceanic Powers
China Xi
Jinping
Chinese
Hegemony
Climate
Change
Cold War
Colonianism
Major Case Study:
The less-known aspects of early Irish
and Scottish Nationalism
Recherche sur ce qui ne va pas avec
les Celtes
Crypto in China and Beyond.
Lai
Ching-te’s Precarious Balancing Act.
The
World's Second Most Populous Country.
US-China Relations.
The Real Motives For China’s Nuclear
Expansion.
Importance Of The Middle Powers.
Overview Of Chinese Spy Activities.
A Problem With China's Economy.
China Today And Tomorrow.
Competition With China To Be Won.
Misconceptions About China.
China’s Economic Collision Course.
Cold War China Xi Jinping And The United
States.
President Xi's Thought.
From Moscow To China.
But It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
Chinese Spy Operations.
But Where Is This Going?
Will Xi’s Military Modernization Pay Off?
Beijing Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of
Mandarin.
More Likely To React To External Threats.
The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
The End Of China’s Economic
Miracle.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
Blinded By The Fight.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
U.S.-Chinese Rivalry.
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
China Is Ready For A World Of
Disorder.
What Does The West Know About Xi’s China?
Why China Is Rewriting The Law Of The Sea.
The Technology Trap.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Lifelines And Chokepoints.
The Consequences Of China’s
Peace Deal.
The Consequences Of China's
Demographic Decline.
How To Spy On China.
The Bad Advice Plaguing President Xi.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
Russia And China Behind The Scenes.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
Spy Ballons TikTok And Chinse Intelligence.
Xi Jinping Preparing China For
War.
China Will Lead The Next
Technological Revolution.
Sweeping
Belt And Road Initiative.
Solidify
Global Divisions For The Coming Decades.
China Is Practicing How to Sever
Taiwan’s Internet.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
China’s Indo-Pacific Folly.
On The Leaks Of A War With China
Plus A Recension In Europe.
What The Cities Of The Future
Will Look Like.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
Detention
Camps.
The
Story of Why The Chinese Can Travel Again.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can
China Take Taiwan?
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
The
Meaning Of China’s Dangerous Decline.
Why
Saudis Don’t Want To Pivot To China.
The Nowhere Road With An Answer
To It.
It Took
Just Seven Words That NBA-China’s Viewership Approaching Pre-Banned Levels.
How China Manipulates The Media.
We
Address Why There Is No Inevitability In China's Decline To India's Rise.
China's
Economy.
Will Xi
Learn From History?
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Why XI
Might Prefer Détente.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
China’s
Past And Xi’s Future.
Reactions To China's Spy
Operations. Part 5
The Circumstances That Allow
Chinese Spy Operations To Thrive. Part 4
The Way To The White House. Part 3
The Chinese Police Service
Stations. Part 2
Chinese Spies Part One. Part 1
How To Build A Better Order.
We
Analyze The Reasons Why.
Can A
War Over Taiwan Still Be Avoided?
The Revelations Of
Document Number Nine.
Large
And In Charge
The
World According To Xi.
China's
COVID-19 Politics To The Test.
China's
Growth In Peril.
China's
Global Security Initiative.
The
Forbidden History
The
Future War Between China And The US.
Xi
Jinping And Present-Day China.
Point Of
No Return.
The
United States Does Not Need To Beat China.
Whereby
The Truth About Taiwan Is.
China
Needs To Reach An Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Nancy
Pelosi’s Visit To Taiwan.
What Is Happening Here?
Xi Unleased.
Whose
China Sea Is It?
Facing A Window Of
Vulnerability Over Taiwan.
China Could Invade Taiwan.
China’s Motivations.
Geopolitical
Consequences Of Taiwan War.
Why
Should Taiwan Be Seen As A Part Of China?
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
part two and conclusion
China's pursuit of greatness
China the Pandemic and Sovereignty
The Actual History Behind The Seven Years In Tibet With Brad Pitt.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Four.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Three.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy Part Two.
How The Movie Industry
Became Chineses Diplomacy.
The Interconnected
Fates Of The World’s Democracies.
The Taiwan Conundrum.
Taiwan Today.
Once More The
Question Of Taiwan.
The Trouble With The South China Sea.
Taiwan Is An Important Partner.
Xi Jinping's Hawkish Forces He Can’t Control.
How To Avoid Catastrophe.
Don’t Panic About Taiwan.
The Looming Taiwan Crisis.
What
Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is.
Can China Take Taiwan?
Major Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
What the real future of Hong Kong might look like
Mapping the new reality of Hong Kong
How China will handle
its future development
Understanding modern
China
From Vancouver to
Auckland and Hong Kong understanding the new Chinese nationalism
Will China now crush
the protests in Hong Kong?
What does it all mean
Increased friction in
the South China Sea and why
Outlook for the world
China, US, Europe, N.Korea,Venezuela, and the way forward with Iran
Today’s legacy of the
Tiananmen crisis
Unveiling China’s big
science
Is China planning to
take Taiwan by force?
Thus has China’s new
Silk Belt and Road failed? Updated
15 Feb. 2019
China’s ticking
time-bomb. Updated 4 Jan. 2019
China’s New Nationalism
China has “no historic rights” in
South China Sea: Continue…
From Chinese Yuan
adjustment to the fall of world markets; the lesson to learn
.. the Huns to their Mongol related
origin in what is now China Continue ...
The
Philippines In The South China Sea.
How concerned should we be when Chinese growth runs out?
The importance of South and East Asia
Which way will the West turn?
Left or right?
Understanding the 100 years of the current
regime in China Part Two
Understanding the 100 years
of the current regime in China
China’s multifaceted great power projection
The rivalry between America and
China in South-East Asia
Where will the China/US
competition lead the world?
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Three
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China
standoff Part Two
Major Case Study:
Investigating the India-China standoff Part
One
South-East Asia between China and the US
Major Case Study:
Developmental forces in East and West as
drivers of psychological change
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese History,
Nation, Language, and Territory Part Three
Major Case Study:
The re-invention of Chinese
History, Nation, Language, and Territory
Major Case Study:
The secrets of China’s new maps unveiled
Will a coming conflict make the military
disasters of Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq pale in comparison?
China’s new claim about the border with
Bhutan
China’s larger geostrategic game
The fall out from the current
crises
Are the U.S. and China headed for a Cold
War?
The 21st Century Arms Race
From bloody nose attack to nonmilitary
options? Plus
update 18 January.
Will the Standoff Lead to a Second
India-China War? With
Update 29 Aug. 2017
South
China Sea: Risks of a clash caused by China’s
paramilitary ships that could bring U.S. forces to bear in defense of U.S.
allies
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
..China considers its territorial
waters
..We must go to war with Japan…History
as a political weapon:
China Today
The Why of Khmer Rouge Terror
The
East Asian World Order
The concept of Han Chinese
China's
New Nationalism
The Early
Chinese Empires
The true
voyages of Zheng He
There now
might be increased diplomatic pressure on Beijing to reduce its presence in
the South China Sea
Globalization and Empire:
Introduction
P.1 Indian Ocean's Business as Usual
P.2 Indian Ocean From Business to Power
Broker
Oceanic Powers, US/China: Conclusion
Case Study
Chinese Religion: Daoism:
Historical Overview of Daoism
Origin of
Daoism
Daoist
secrets of ritualized alchemy to internal Neidan meditative alchemy
Tantric ‘internal’ alchemy P.1
Tantric practice in China P.2
The Politics of Qigong:
The Taiping
Rebellion, Boxer Uprising, and Falung Gong
From Red Turban to Ming Tax Collecting
The Island of Seven Cities:
Research Report:
China Beyond Zheng Hi
From Persia to China
Research Report P.4:
China's Reinvented Historic Legacy
Case Study:
When China Woke Up to the World
Chinese and other Empires of the World
What Next
with China? P.1.
What Next with China P.2.
China Xi Jinping And The
United States.
But
It Can Still Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Preparing For A Future Of
Extreme Weather.
Measure The Harm Of Climate
Change.
The search for Nextpolis
Apocalypse Never:
Why Planet earth is shutting down
A history of the end of the world
From
climate change denialism to the Brazilian rainforest fires and solutions
going forward
Here
is a blueprint as to how to approach the problems:
The
Weather as influenced by El Nino going forward
The
world going forward:
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The economy of Colonialism:
Major Case Study:
Part one, Part two,
Part three
The economics of colonialism part three
The economics of colonialism part two
The counterfactual view that explains
colonialism
D
Dalai Lama
The Next
Dalai Lama.
The future Dalai Lama
E
East Asia
Economy,
see World - World Economy
Egypt
Empires
Enlightenment
EU - Europe
Europe
Extremism
The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.
What Is Achievable In East Asia?
Countdown
Egypt: Why Egypt's Mursi will either resign or be sacked on 3 July
What next with Egypt and Syria to Jordan
Consequences for the balance of power
between the Brotherhood and the military
Protesters Storm Muslim Brotherhood Offices
Ghosts Of Empires Past.
This Is
Particularly True For Empires.
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
The Holy Roman Empire, the Reformation, and the birth of the
Netherlands
Beginnings and endings of Empires
The concept of
Han Chinese
The East
Asian World Order
Whose Enlightenment?
When Europe Fell Apart.
The Promise And Peril Of EU
Expansion.
The Truth About European
Colonialism In The New World.
How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.
Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.
Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.
Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
Time To Expand The UN Security Council.
Europe’s Real Test Is Yet To Come.
Poland 1941.
Europe And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
On The
Leaks Of A War With China Plus A Recension In Europe.
The
German Connection.
How The
War In Ukraine Will Remake The Continent.
The
Gripping Story Of How A Plot Would Take Over Germany.
Germany’s
Unlearned Lessons.
Germany
Just Averted Its Own Jan. 6, And Maybe The Fourth Reich.
Inflation
And Economic Uncertainty.
Why This
Could Last For Years.
Greece expected to strike a deal with the EU
The
fate of Europe in 2013
Will
the European Crises soon be over?
The
Start of Europe’s fragmentation
Why the European crisis has been solved
(for
a while).
Europe’s Crises Worsening
The financial crisis Europe faces it has
not wanted to admit even exists (with graphs)
Eurozone’s Debt crisis no
longer just about Greece. Continue…
Introduction
Critical
Investigation:
Research Report: Conflict and Ethnicity
Research Report: Ethnoclass in Eastern Europe
Religion and Modern Politics P.1: Bakunin's
Christianity
Religion and Modern Politics P.2: From 'New
Right' to Habermas Today
P.1: The New World of 'Sociology'
P.2: Signor Mazzini I Presume?
P.3: Social Democrats, A Political Religion
Updated:
P.4: The 1914 Clash of Civilisations
True History of the European Community,
P.1: Its WWI Origin
True History of the European Community, P.2: Which Europe?
P.1
Globalization and Economics: A Search for the Holy Grail?
Cold War and Modern Historiography
Including
major case study "From Belgium to Kososovo and back"
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.1
Towards a New Sociology of Religious Nationalism P.2, Part 3-a, Part 3-b:
The Politically Incorrect Guide to Religion
P.1
The Future of Democracies Around the World
How To Understand Extreme
Right-Wing Parties.
F
Fascism,
see Second World War
First World
War, see also WWI
Revisiting the First World
War Part Three
Revisiting the First World
War Part Two
Revisiting the First World War
Major Case Study:
A
new investigation about the First World War
Major Case Study:
Revisiting the Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
Beyond the Treaty of Versailles
Treaty of Sèvres on 10 August 2020
new complex patterns and alliances were formed (many of them in the Middle East)
…an
interesting section about “The Flemish Lion”
The tribulations and consequences of the
Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
World War I became known as the war to end
all wars
A complete timeline of what happened
Shantung the Versailles Treaty and the
Manchurian episode
A Somewhat Hidden History of the Balfour
Declaration
How the First World War started P.9
How the First World War started P.8
How the First World War started
P.7
How the First World War started P.6
Leading up to the First World
War P.5
Leading up the First World War P.4
The almost First World War P.3
The almost First World War P.2
The almost First World War P.1
The conspiracy theory that gave rise to
Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the famous Article 231
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.4
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.3
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.2
The true history of the Balfour Declaration
and its implementations P.1
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
The second First World War
The Real Russian Origins of the First World
War
A new investigation why the First World War
broke out
G
Gaza
Globalization
Global Jihad
Greater Han-Han Zhou Dynasty
Gantz’s Gaza Plan.
Gaza After Gaza.
Witness To Palestine.
The Way Going Forward In Gaza.
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The
Path To A Regional Order.
Is this the end of Globalization?
The
'out of Eden' peopling of the earth
… For example:
Historical Overview
Historical Truth in the Age of
Globalization, P.1
The Myth of 1492 - Historical Truth in the
Age of Globalization, P.2
The Myth of The Industrial Revolution -
Historical Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.3
What the East Thought the West - Historical
Truth in the Age of Globalization, P.4
P.1, Mutual Contact
P.2, Violent Occupations
P.3, Broken Treaties and the Sex Trade
P.4, Disease and Changing Worlds
P.5, Controlling Landscapes
P.6, Administering People
P.7, WWII of Indigenous Populations
P.8, Enter the 21st Century
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First
Trade-Wars
History of Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First
Multinational Companies.
"Globalization Flat or Round?"
What do Naomi Klein's "No War" have in common with with
two other recent books: "The Fire This Time: U.S. War Crimes in the
Gulf" or "The Iraq War : A Military History"?
…others are in complete denial of what is happening to them or soon
will happen
Postscript: Where did all the Money Go?
Why this complicates the reaction to the
Paris attacks:
Paris and the end times of ISIS:
…why Islamic history
The Future of the Islamic State:
The Salafist Resurgence
Jemaah Islamiah and Global Jihad
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, and Salafi Jihadism:
Interview with Eric Vandenbroeck
Radical Islam and Global Jihad Today
Report:
Beyond
Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of the Middle East
The Islam Code P.1.
The Islam Code P.2.
Conclusion:
The Islam Code P.3.
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.1
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.2
An Exact Overview of the Growth of Modern
Radical Islam P.3
Pictural Overview of the Middle East Today
Global Jihad P.1
Global Jihad P.2
Global Jihad P.3
Global Jihad P.4
Global Jihad P.5
Global Jihad P.6
Global Jihad P.7
Conclusion and Implications:
Global Jihad P.7
The apocalypse within:
Updated
Case Analysis:
SA in Indonesia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Chechnya
Future World Jihad P.1
Future World Jihad P.2
Future World Jihad P.3: The Nazi Connection
Future World Jihad P.4: Jerusalem’s Armageddon
Future World Jihad P.5: What Now?
…Evidence
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, plus more
Global Jihad
Case Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Major Researchproject: Future World Jihad P.5
The Quest for World Jihad: Introduction
The Quest for World Jihad P.1.
The Quest for World Jihad P.2.
…we described the significance of the Ottoman Empire in the context
of today's world jihad
…let alone an inevitable, consequence of World War 1. The Quest for World Jihad P.3
…six part investigation of British encounters with Islamic warfare
The Quest for World Jihad P.4
Bin-Laden’s Bookshelf p.1 and 2
…2006 30 Jan. al-Qaeda nr.2 on bin-Laden's Truce''
Updated
The
Background Story of 7/7/2005 in the UK:
Today's War on Terrorism
A New 'Jihad' Wave?
Pakistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.1: Egypt and the Sudan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.2: Somalia and Lebanon
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.3: Wahhabi's and Shi'ites
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.4: Iraq
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.5: Afghanistan
The Hidden Roots of Modern Jihad P.6: Strategic Lessons
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich"P.1
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.2
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.3
From Hitler to the "Arab Reich" P.4
A Convergence of Militant Islam and the New Right?
fringe groups not yet mentioned
The concept of Han Chinese
The East Asian World Order
H
Haiti
Hamas
Hawaii
Hitler,
see Second World War
Human Origins - Humanity
Houthis
Who Will Lead Haiti?
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War.
The Day After.
Israel And Hamas
From Pearl Harbour On.
The True Story Of Hawaii.
2020 9
July:
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in the pacific
Rediscovering Hawaii's place in
the pacific
And Then
It Got Cold.
The Mystery Of Inequality.
The Myth of Human Origins
When humanity almost got wiped out
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
I
Illiberal Democracy
India
International Relations
International Systems
Iran
Iranian-Palestinian
Iraq
Islam
Israel
And Hamas
Israel
In Gaza
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
The Rising Threat Of Illiberal
Democracy.
The British ‘Company’
And The Conquest Of India.
The Fate Of Over 1.4 Billion
People Hangs In The Balance.
Modi's New Messenger.
The Teacher To The World.
The Story How Hardeep Singh
Nijjar Was Killed In Canada, September 2023.
India’s Massive Military Restructuring.
Will India Surpass China To Become The Next Superpower?
India As It Is.
India Won’t Side With Washington Against Beijing.
India’s Great-Power Opportunity.
Kashmir Today.
The Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
Why It
Is Of Importance.
The
Skirmish In Arunachal Pradesh Reflects Beijing’s Confidence, And New
Delhi’s Diminished Deterrence.
A Critical Look At Narendra Modi's
India Today.
India’s
Ruling Party Is Losing Control.
Why I Killed Gandhi.
A New Look At The History Of Partition.
Major Case
Study:
A movie, a new book, and what India stands for
today
Ladakh fighting
Major Case Study:
The Hindu right in context
Could India and China Go to War?
Kashmiri militants
What is really happening in India?
The empire within an empire that changed
the future fate of India
The impeachment of the first
governor-general of Bengal
Jammu and Kashmir
What happened with Kashmir and
why it matters
“I think it is probably a god-gifted
ability”
A concern is that it might leed to more
violence in Sri Lanka
The 10th anniversary of an assault that
raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was about Kashmir
Revisiting India’s Harappan
civilization .. where the Indo-European languages came from, enter:
..."Indian
Mujahadeen" like recent
attacks in Ahmedabad and Jaipur
Why Orissa
Introduction
What is happening in India today?
What happened with Kashmir and why it matters.
Update
… India's tech sector following explosions
…began on Wednesday, 26 November
…repercussions in reference to Kashmir
…including that the Indian air and missile forces were
placed on war footing
Kashmir is a victim of the disputed division of
British India during the transfer of colonial power in 1947.
Partition of British India's Geostrategic
Cause.
…Through
Burma and Back
India: The Clash Within: The World's
Largest Democracy?
Deciding to go for facts rather than
fiction today:
The Eurasian Industrial
Revolution.
Bose
movie, published in: Return of the Swastika, 2007 P.1
From Japan to Burma, P.2
From Nagaland to Burma, P.1
From Nagaland to Burma, P.2
sometimes also encountered in our research
report about Europe
Politics in S.Asia P.1
Politics in S.Asia P.2 post-1966 Indira
Gandhi
Politics in S.Asia P.3 Competitive Populism
…in
Madras Henry Olcott stated…
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.1
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.2
Political Religious Violence in Asia P.3
…Fascism and Communism
Matthew Specter And Jonathan Kirshner’s New
Books.
…the rise and fall of a principle of
hierarchical sovereignty. See:
…vassalage system employed in Europe
some fifteen hundred years later. See:
S.America that led up to the League
of Nations Conference at Montevideo. See:
…most likely resulting in failure. See:
…boundaries between political units
will increase. See:
The state is not the only form of
political unit to have existed…See:
… former Yugoslavia … See:
… crisis in Yugoslavia -- the
question we next answered is why. See:
… a nascent American imperial that
represents the status quo. See:
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.1: Introduction
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.2: China and Tibet
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.3: Islamic Empires
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.4: Christians and Pagans in Europe
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.5: Protestant Reformation
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.6: From God To Proto-Nationalism
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.7: Demand for increased boundaries
The Past and Future of the Nations
P.8: Federalism and its Consequences
…disintegration of Yugoslavia…
State Behaviour in the International System P.1
…legal tradition…
State Behaviour in the International System P.2
…during 2003 Iraq Standoff.
State Behaviour in the International System P.3
The Kyoto Protocol and Africa.
State Behaviour in the International System P.4
United States, the United Kingdom,
Australia, India, and Sierra Leone.
State Behaviour in the International System P.5
Conclusion and Outlook:
State Behaviour in the International System P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.1
From Belgium to Kosovo P.2
From Belgium to Kosovo P.3
From Belgium to Kosovo P.4
From Belgium to Kosovo P.5
From Belgium to Kosovo P.6
From Belgium to Kosovo P.7
Introduction
Conclusion
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
What
Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.
Iran’s New Patrons.
The Iran Gamble.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
An Even More Intransigent Regime.
Iran’s
Question Of Legitimacy.
Iran’s
Anti-Veil Protests Have Already Succeeded.
The enduring relationship between China and Iran
What next?
What to make of the Iran protests?
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
Iran - Gaza Offensive: Why the Iranian connection will complicate
the situation
Iran threatens to block Strait of
Hormuz oil route, yet
why they will not
Military steps up plans for Iran attack?
Introduction
Modern
Iran P.1
Modern Iran P.2
The Iran Papers P.1
The Iran Papers P.2
The Iran Papers P.3
The Iran Papers P.4
The Iran Papers P.5
Conclusion: The Iran Papers
…Iran…
Iran-Chinese relationship
Iran
and its conspiracytheories
Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners
Choose To Escalate.
Why Iran And Israel May Not
Be Finished.
The Cascading World.
Iran's Strategy.
A Detente Option For
Iran.
The
Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.
What is to follow after Iraqi Prime
Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi's resignation
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part Two.
The End
of the Islamic Republic As We Know It Part One.
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part two
Major Case Study:
Early Islam and the decay of Rome part one
The Day After.
Hamas’s Future.
Israel From A Singaporean Perspective.
The Rafah Operation.
Pressuring
Allies Not To Retaliate Against Attacks Raises The Risk Of Spiraling
Conflicts.
Hamas Part Two.
Qatar And The Hamas
Leader.
These Are The
Three Options.
Only Way Is To Defeat
Hamas.
Israel And Hamas.
Stuck
In Gaza.
Why Israel Will Remain In Gaza.
|
Israel - Palestine - Jerusalem
|
Where the Case Stands Now.
The Land that is Israel.
Consequences of the
Israel/Hamas War.
Can America’s Special Relationship With
Israel Survive?
How it Could be Done.
When The Palestinian Flag
Was Raised At Harvard.
But This Is Equally
True For The United States.
Why International Law Is
Failing.
Judicial Reforms As War Of
Words Escalates.
The Coming Arab Backlash.
Jordanian Fighter Pilots.
Dilemmas Of The Gulf
States.
So What Is It All
About?
Relations With Israel And
American Leadership.
Israel's Cyberabilities.
The New Capacity.
Witness To Palestine.
Where This War Will
Go Next?
The Food Weapon.
Palestinian Option.
How Israel Fights.
Israel And Hamas.
America’s
Hypocrisy On Gaza.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Gaza Makes A Nuclear
Iran More Likely.
Regional
Conflicts Resemble World War II.
Why Peace Remains
Possible.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
The Choice Cannot Be
Clearer.
Gaza Historical Role.
But Far Greater Risks May Emerge
If He Doesn’t.
Why Israel Will Remain
In Gaza.
Researching Israel’s Goals And
Strategy.
How Hamas Has United Israelis
Behind The War.
The Iranian-Palestinian Marriage
Of Convenience.
The Way Going
Forward In Gaza.
The
Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Why Israel Won’t
Change.
Protest The Netanyahu
Government.
What Does It Mean To
Defeat A Terrorist Group?
The Gaza Case.
It Is A Pattern That Is
Already Playing Out Again.
Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A
Meeting In Doha?
The No Blueprint
Assault.
The Protests In Israel.
Duelling Speeches.
The End Of Israel’s Gaza
Illusions.
What To Do About Gaza, And
What Gazans Think.
Israel Enter Gaza Imminent.
Misinformation About
The Israel-Hamas War Is Flooding Social Media.
Erdogan And The
Hamas-Israel War.
Escalation Could Set Israel And
Iran On A Collision Course.
The
Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.
Return The Gaza Strip
To Palestinians.
A Strategy Beyond Revenge.
Why Washington
Should Restrain Israeli Military Action In Gaza.
Time To Step Back From The
Brink.
Hamas Rise To Power.
How The Conflict
In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle
East.
Gaza Redux Part One.
Hezbollah, Israel,
And Tehran.
The Why And How Of The
Surprise Attack On Israel.
Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The Palestinians.
Debating Israel’s One-State Reality.
Confronting A One-State Reality.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
Israel’s Dangerous Shadow War With Iran.
How To Prevent A Third Intifada.
The Holy Land and its contestants
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine P.2
Major Case Study:
A critical history of Palestine
P.1
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.2
The story of British
Policymaking at the End of Empire and the Creation of Israel P.1
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15
Jan.2017
The Hajj, Muslim worshipers at the
Grand Mosque in Mecca: What
two million people are about to do here
The Palestinians' Real Enemies
The Gaza offensive: Egyptian-Israeli relations, other groups
than Hamas, wider relevance or importance
A Brief History of the Jerusalem Problem
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P3: The Palestinian Challenge Beyond Israel
The Problems with Israel and
Palestine P2: Geostrategy of the Palestinians
…Israeli military incursion…
P1: Geostrategy of Israel
J
Japan
East Asia’s
Coming Population Collapse.
Tokyo
Aims To Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.
The Consensus From Canberra To Tokyo.
The Japanese Attempt to Solve the Mongol Question
Major Case Study:
Asia after China
Japans dealing
with China
Identity in Japan
Anglo-American ascendance
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
…Turkish and Japanese foreign
policies, and why: Continue...
Cold War Japan
…demanded that Japan open its doors to
foreign trade
The U.S. financial siege of Japan:
The U.S. Oil Shortage that never was
Making the New Japan:
The New Japan P.1:
The New Japan P.2:
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony:
An Assessment P.1.
Asia-Pacific Rim Hegemony: From
Japanese to Chinese Containment?
An Assessment P.2.
K
Kurds
What next with the Kurdish conundrum?
L
Latinoamerica,
see also South America
Mexico On Edge?
Who Will Lead Haiti?
Bolsonaro
Redux.
When The
Past Does Not Go Away.
The Haitian Government Is Dependent On International Power.
Far-Right Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
The
Current Situation.
Far-Right
Rioters Invaded Brazil's Federal Representative Institutions.
A
History Of Making Bad Situatiuations Worse.
Latin America 2022.
Democracy Or Authoritarian Populism?
M
Middle East
Moscow To
China
Myanmar - Rohingya Crisis
The Region’s
Perilous Security Conditions.
The Making Of The
Middle East.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Seven.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Six.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Five.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Four.
The Middle East Gamble.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part Two.
The Making Of The
Modern Middle East Part One.
The Path To A
Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
The Problems With
The Middle East.
Part One:
How The Conflict In The Middle East Came About P.1.
Crises In The Middle East.
Why A Spate of Diplomatic Deals
Won’t End Conflict.
Key To The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
How To
Deal With The Saudi Arabia Problems.
What
Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
Why World War I was pivotal to the creation
of the modern Middle East
Why Tehran Is Winning the War for Control
of the Middle East
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.8:
British rule, Arab Spring-revolt, and the
Syria crisis today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian issue in Lebanon
today
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.6:
The importance of oil, the ‘Arab question’,
and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.6:
The Paris Peace Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the ‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the
modern Middle East P.2:
The Arab question and the ‘shocking
document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the
Modern Middle East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’, Britain, and the
Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin
America
Case Study:
Beyond Terror and Martyrdom: The Future of
the Middle East
Pictural Overview of the Middle East
…conflict in Yemen seems anything but over:
Jerusalem Unveiled
Paris Peace Conference redux 15 Jan. 2017
The
Syrian civil war and the Middle East going forward
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.2
The
true history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true
history of the Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
Geopolitical
Implications
The
Shi’ite-Suni Devide
Case Study:
Shi'ite Lebanon and Hezbollah
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.1
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.2
The
Occupation and its Legacy, P.3
Unknown to most we checkep up who and what Hezbollah really is
Who/What Hezbollah really is: The Larger Picture
…the new conflict between the
post-Christian West and Islam…Case Study
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict
also in the case of China…
Research Report:
The Iran US Conflict Today
Israel is the 'Zion' of prophecy, part of God's plan
We frequently pointed out…
Case Study:
Pan-Arabist Media
The New Pan-Arabism P.2:
Research Report:
Saudi-Arabia
and Terrorism:
World Jihad
From
Moscow To China
|
Myanmar
- Rohingya Crisis
|
The
Future Of Myanmar.
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Five
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Four
Major Case Study:
Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Three
Major Case Study: Myanmar
and the looming war for its borderlands Part Two
Major Case Study:
Myanmar and
the looming war for its borderlands Part one
What Myanmar as a failed state may look like:
What next with Myanmar
The ongoing tragedy that faces the Muslim
Rohingya communities of western Myanmar
Major
Case Study:
The
consequences of the Arakan Campaign
…in reference to faulting Myanmar
...where she is planning to deny any wrongdoing by the
armed forces and defend Myanmar against charges of ethnic cleansing or
genocide
The politics of statelessness investigation
The Rakhine/Rohingya Conundrum
What next with Myanmar and its Chinese
influence Plus update 2 February
Myanmar update
Myanmar P.6:
Mawlamyine and beyond
Myanmar P.5:
Past the Golden Rock to Karen (Kayin) State
Myanmar P.4:
The Challenge of Unity in a Divided Country
Myanmar P.3:
Two kinds of Monks
Myanmar P.2:
To Myitkyina and Kachin State
Myanmar P.1:
Discovering the background from where today’s
Myanmar evolved
China/US, 2013 projection for
Myanmar/Burma
Myanmar's Shame:
…the Panglong agreement
Aung San was assassinated just over five
months later.
…crisis or political uncertainty, was the military. Continue…
….most Burmese watched and waited, untroubled by the small flurries
of activity among Europeans. Continue...
…inter-communal hatred versus the Karen and others. Continue…
…and thus contributing to the confusion. Continue…
…Asia weighed heavily on the minds of the British. Continue...
…as they had been doing for years. Continue…
…or minority tribal leaders to hold out for too much. Continue...
…of a favorable conjunction of the stars. Continue...
…Burma soon had all but become one of the first 'failed states’. Continue...
The return of Japan post WWII. Continue...
N
Napoleon
NATO
North Korea
Nuclear Peril
Enter Napoleon:
The End of NATO?
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
How To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.
Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius.
The Next Few Years Will Be Crucial.
NATO’s East Deterring Russia.
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
The Leaked Documents.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Explaining The NEW NATO Strategic Concept.
What the situation looks like going forward
The Coming North Korean Crisis.
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
A Form Of Preparation For War.
The Korea Model.
Today's Situation In Korea.
Major
Case Study:
The
Korean War in context
The news from N.Korea
The USA “ready to fight tonight” claim
Will the U.S. accept a nuclear N.Korea or
intervene P.1
....N. Korea … Continue…
What Proliferation
Means For Global Security.
The Return Of Nuclear
Escalation.
Confronting The New Nuclear Peril.
O
Oman
Major
Case Study:
Charting
the future of Oman
P
Pacific War
Pakistan
Palestine: see Israel – Palestine – Jerusalem
Political Qigong
Psychology - Psychiatry
Putin
The Pacific Space.
The five days that made Pearl Harbours as
a key for the worldwide war.
Part Eight Can a potential future Pacific War be
avoided?
Part Seven Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Six Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part Five Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Four Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Three Can a potential future Pacific
War be avoided?
Part Two Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Part One Can a potential future Pacific War
be avoided?
Imran Khan’s Long March.
The 10th anniversary of
an assault that raised fears of war with Pakistan and why in the end it was
about Kashmir
Predicaments of
Pakistan in Afghanistan
For an
overview of Pakistan enter here:
Introduction:
…to support an Islamic State in Pakistan
…controlled by British political
officers with the help of tribal chieftains...
Continue P.1
…Blood and chaos were
everywhere."
Continue P.2
…some ways to think about territory,
history, and ethnic belonging. Continue P.3
…key theories of nationalism.
Continue P.4
Who Made Pakistan? P.5: The Militarization of Pakistan
P.6 India's Backlash
…under
civil/military rulers before turning Islamic during the last decade and a
half. Continue P.7
With the case of Indonesia, India, and Pakistan…
Case Study:
The
Politics of Qigong
Rationality
and progress
The logic of human nature and
causal networks
So what to do about bias?
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Three
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part Two
The secrets behind the making of the
Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) Part One
So what is with Psychological Science?
Here are eight ways how we can form more
accurate views of the world
The Secret of Positive Thinking, Self Help
books and Happiness
The Politically Incorrect Guide to
Psychology and Psychiatry
From New Thought to Self
Improvement Books
Putin And The Right
Q
Qatar
Two
longtime rivals battle by proxy and why this crisis will get worse
Case Study:
Qatar's
master strategy or opportunism?
R
Russia – Central Asia
Russia - Putin
Russia - Tsar
To Run the World.
Putin Threatens the West with
"Special Ammunition."
Russia’s Pro-Putin Elites.
Foreign Propagandists.
The Russian Volunteer Corps.
The Anti-Western Club.
The Five Futures Of Russia.
Too Many European Politicians Are
Failing To Confront Russia.
Like In The First World War?
What Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
What The West Still Gets Wrong
About Russia’s Military.
What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.
The Wagner Paramilitary Group.
Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.
The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The War Of Endurance.
Blinded By The Fight.
Crimes Without Punishment?
China’s Affinity With Russia Is
Over.
The Treacherous Path To A Better Russia.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
Prepare For A Brutal War.
1984 In Russia Today.
Stalin’s Secret Force.
The Latest News.
The Question Of Chinese Military
Support For Russia.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
The
Coming Russia Disintegration.
The
Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
Russia
And China Behind The Scenes.
The
Limits Of Economic Warfare.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Russia That Might Have Been.
Looting
As A Potential War Crime.
How Long
Can This Not-Quite-Total War Be Sustained?
Russia’s
Anti-Jewish Dimension.
Europe
And Russia’s Aggression In Ukraine.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
Russian
Patriotic Death Cult.
Russia
Is Losing The War.
Can
Moscow Learn From Its Failures In Ukraine?
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
Why The
Sanctions In Russia Are Already Biting Hard.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
The War
Will Likely Continue Until The End Of 2023.
To
Prepare For Russia’s Collapse.
Russia's
Target Of 300,000 Additional Troops.
The
Russian Crisis.
To Know
Stalin And What Followed.
To Recognize The Stakes.
We Have To Prepare For Russia’s Defeat But Also Its Return.
A Decentralized Entity Can Reform Itself From The Inside Out.
In 1954, Crimea Was Transferred From Russia To Ukraine.
A Re-Assessment.
Why Policymakers Around The World Should Take Note.
Revisiting the Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Four.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Three.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part Two.
Revisiting The Ambassador-Lockhart Plot Part One.
What should not be taken off the table when
talking with Putin
We show in seven maps how Ukraine came about
Major Case
Study:
Putin Has Long Tried to Balance Europe. Now He’s Working to Reset It
What the situation looks like going forward
Ukraine today
Why Putin believes Ukraine was given to Russia
Putin and the Cold War Part Two
Putin and the Cold War Part One
The transformation of the Russian Empire
part two
The transformation of the Russian Empire part one
Why Putin claims that most of Ukraine “was given”
to Russia
Gorbachev’s reforms
Imperial Russia and Qing China
Revealing Harbin’s
interesting Russian history
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.7
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.6
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.5
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.4
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.3
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.2
Major
Case Study:
Spys Invade Russia P.1
The Svalbard/Spitsbergen Saga
Major
Case Study:
Was the Cold War inevitable?
A German and British plot to take the last Tsar
Ukraine as a test case
Major
Case Study:
When
Spies invaded Russia P.6.
British spycraft in Bolshevist Russia
Major
Case Study:
When
Spies invaded Russia P.5.
What must develop into a civil war
Major Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.4.
How North
Russia evolved into its military phase
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.3.
The alleged
protecting of supplies propaganda
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded
Russia P.2.
To mold
irregular warfare into a method which honored the Imperial myth
Major
Case Study:
When Spies invaded Russia P.1
Major Case
Study:
Why is Ukraine so important to
Russia
From Rasputin to little known aspects of
Nicholas’s II abdication and the situation in Russia
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.2: The
British Banking scheme to control Russia’s economy and the Allied
intervention
British Imperial Agents invade
Russia P.1: here
the lesser known aspects surrounding the events of 1918
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.4: From White
resurgence to the Anglo-Soviet Trade Agreement
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.3: The rise and
fall of Komuch’s People’s Army
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.2: The
Counterrevolution and the Anatomy of Allied Intervention
Captives of the Russian Civil War
P.1: Why and how the Czech Legion conquered the Siberian
railway
Concerns Russia could use the alleged plot in
Crimea to justify more military incursions into the Ukraine
…Russia vis a vis a US plane: We
tell you why it happened
Russian Aristocrats, Putin, and European
extreme right wing parties
The main question now is whether Russia
will push back with what power it has left or find a way to compromise with
this shifting worldview
Case Study:
The ‘decline of the West’ and a
look behind Putin’s new Eurasianism
Intelligence scoop of what is happening
with the Ukraine and the standoff between Russia the US and Europe:
Resurgence or is Russia Doomed? Continue:
Enter the Unfolding Crises in Europe and
the Ukraine/Crimea:
The Qaddafi libel against Gorbachev and the
last days of the Soviet Union
…Russia wants to increase its
influence. …China might be concerned, plus… Continue:
Russian Eurasianism: A New Ideology of
Empire?
Introduction
The Next European Battleground?
Russia’s Geostrategic
Predicament and Power Today P1
Finding the West
…following part
Introduction: Gorbachev’s Last Days
Case Study:
Russia’s Move Towards the Right
Global Jihad Case
Study:
Central Asia P.1
Central Asia P.2
Central Asia P.3
Research Report:
Russia’s
Geostrategic Roots Today
European policy that is about to change now …Comment
…more questions than answers.
Comment P.1
Comment P.2:
…transforming the face of Eurasia
Predicting the next half Year:
Russia’s New Map: The Third Rome
A History
of Eurasianism
The New Map of Russia
Russia’s
New Map P.2: A History of Panslavism
Russia’s
New Map P.3
World
Revolution: The Roots of Modern Russia
How the
End of the Cold War Occurred
After the
Cold War: America over the Brink
What Led To The Dissolution of
The Soviet Union 1991
Central Asia: Why The Great Game
Heats Up
Why The Great Game Heats Up P.2: Azerbaijan
Putin Threatens the West with
"Special Ammunition."
Russia’s Pro-Putin
Elites.
Putin And The Right.
Bolshevik Rule.
Too
Many European Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.
What Does Putin Want?
What Putin And Kim Want From
Each Other.
What It Will Take To Break
Putinism’s Grip.
Why There Can Be No Negotiations
With Putin.
The Beginning Of The End For
Putin?
Crisis Abates, But Questions Remain.
Is Worse To Come From Putin?
How Putin Revived Stalinism.
Dictator Without Borders.
Putin’s Forever War.
Putin, The Suspect.
Putin Remains In Day-To-Day
Government.
Sanctions Can Help End Putin’s Imperial Pretensions If The West
Keeps Its Nerve.
The War
Started Due To Putin's Policy Failure.
War in
Ukraine Has Revealed About Putin’s Regime.
Indications
Putin Decided To Give The Missile That Downed MH17.
They Can
Do Business With.
2023 Is
The Decisive Year.
How
Putin Is About To Lose His War.
Calling
Out Putin's Excuse.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
The
Polish Incident That Is Changing It.
We Investigate The
Nonproliferation Conundrum.
Why
Putin Gladly Tells You Is No Khrushchev.
What Is
Needed For The Russian Economy To Grow.
China
The Global Power And Russia The Junior Partner.
Putin And Stalin.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
What To
Do About Putin.
We
Assess The Possibility Of Regime Collapse.
The
Outcome Of Significant Wars Ultimately Comes Down To Attrition.
The Way
Forward For Russia.
Putin
Puts Faith In The Poor Man's Weapon.
The War
Might Last Another Year And What That Means.
Our
Source In The Kremlin Speaks Up.
What
Happens To Russia’s Periphery.
Why
Today It Becomes More Likely Putin Will Lose This War.
A Fear
Greater Than Putin.
The End Of Putin’s Bargain With The People.
Climbing The Escalation
Ladder.
How To
Build A Better Order.
Policy For A World In
Crisis.
Putin's Private Army.
Why Is There Little Hope For A Quick
Rebound.
Wait For The Tide To Turn.
They Will Be Front And Center In Domestic And
Global Politics.
Naturally, There Can Be No Excuse, Only Ruthless
Punishment.
Assessment Of How The Russia-Ukraine
War Is Progressing.
Peter Took Russia Into The Future. Putin Pushing It
Back To The Past.
Russians Are In For A Rude Awakening This Fall.
There Is A Risk Of Serious Harm.
China Needs To Reach An
Understanding And Russia Does Not.
Bad Timing Of Global
Agriculture And Food Supply Chains.
Russia’s Security Concerns
And Allay Its Anxieties.
China’s Motivations.
Fantasy Is Not History.
When The Economic Recovery Comes.
Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion Hinges On The Coming
Battle Of Kherson.
Convicted For The Usurpation Of Power.
This Will Put One Side At A Disadvantage.
Russias Fifth Service.
The Ukraine/Russia War.
Fighting Climate Change Through Trade.
Time For New Trade Agreements.
What Next With The World Energy Situation.
Whose Middle East?
What If The War In Ukraine Spins Out Of Control?
Can Austria Stay Neutral?
Explaining How Far NATO Can Go.
Western Fears Of Putin.
Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.
The Case For Diplomacy.
He Has None.
This Is Not A Victory.
The Key To Victory In Ukraine.
A
Need To Build A Better World Order.
A Global Cold War.
Part Eight
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Seven
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Six
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Five
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Four
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Three
From 1917 To 2022.
Part Two
From 1917 To 2022.
From 1917 To
2022.
The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.
Can Putin
Survive?
Why The
Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight In Ukraine.
Why Do Russian Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?
Why Ukraine Reached A Pivotal Moment.
Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.
The Why Of The Road To War.
The Putin Challenge.
Putin’s Challenge To The West.
Why Putin’s Ukraine War Is An Inflection Point For The West.
Why It Is Too Soon For A Lasting Diplomatic Settlement.
What Candidate Status Would Mean.
Russia’s Early Failures Doesn’t Make It Less Dangerous.
Russian Army Would Have To Collapse.
The End Of Climate Policy.
Why Does China Neither Endorse Nor Condemn Russian President
Vladimir Putin’s War?
What
The G7 Foreign Ministers Will Do.
Belgian Lessons.
What Will The Consequences Of Mobilization Be?
The Kremlin’s Questionable Worldview.
Understanding The Kremlin’s Worldview.
Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part One.
The Re-Invention Of History And National Identity.
Why The War In Ukraine Is Shifting.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Three.
Understanding Putin’s Revisionist Worldview Part Two.
Understanding Putin’s Worldview Part One.
The Wargame.
How Serious A Threat Is Putin.
The War About Food Supplies.
Infiltrating The Highest Level Of Government.
Meanwhile, Russians Are Fleeing Their Country In Doves.
Revealing Putin’s Inconsistencies While Striving For A New
Empire.
Geostrategy Of Russia.
Putin’s Victory Speech.
The Murder Of General Wrangel An Equally Famous
Ballerina.
The Atomic Option.
A “New” War, Twenty Years In The Making.
Exposure To Russian Intelligence Services.
Major Case Study:
The Mongolia Factor.
Moscow’s Suez Moment.
What
Putin Has In Mind Next.
Who Is The Tsar Of Russia.
Life For The Tsar.
S
Second World War, see also WWII
Slavery North America
South America
South Asia
Spy Agencies - Secret Intelligence
Services
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
The Special Operations Executive In France
And Elsewhere.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Six.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Five.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Four.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Three.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part Two.
Hitler's Aristocrats Part One.
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences
Part Two
Major Case Study:
The Pearl Harbour attack and its consequences Part One
The post-WWII new order part two
The post-WWII new order part one
The old order is crumbling, and a new order
is rising
Axis states understood they
settled the moral low ground.
The Second World War created the
conditions for transforming Europe and the entire global geopolitical order.
Creating a new
world order part one.
How the various countries
justified WWII Part One.
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Four
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Three
Major Case Study:
From the Manchurian Incident to Word War II
Part Two
Major Case Study: From the Manchurian Incident to
Word War II Part One
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Sixteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fifteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Fourteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Thirteen
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Twelve
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Eleven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Ten
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Nine
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Eight
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Seven
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Six
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and
Poland Part Five
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Four
… Trianon (1919 and 1920)
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Three
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part Two
Major Case Study:
Russia, Germany, and Poland Part One
How Britain hoped to avoid war
with Germany in the 1930s
Major Case Study:
The Vatican archives and World War II
When Britain gave Hitler the
go-ahead
Hitler’s Bolshevism and the myth of the
Jewish Conspiracy
Major
Case Study:
London, Madrid, and the creation of
Washington, D.C.
Case Study:
S.America P.1: Overview
Case Study:
S.AmericaP.2: Economic Musings
Case Study:
S.America P.3:
The Road to Independence
Case Study:
S.America P.4:
Che and Castro
Case Study:
S.America P.5:
From Chile to Brazil
…and distribution networks: Research Report
Hugo Chaves
Anonymous activists threaten to
expose Mexican drug cartel secrets, here the
context:
A Nuclear Collision Course In South Asia.
Introduction
... traders that "turned
sovereign". And Burke sought the impeachement of the companies
Governor, Warren-Hastings...
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.1: The First Trade-Wars
History of
Globalization: In and out of India P.2: The First Multinational Companies
So let us
start with the most important one, language
… a gendered/racial categorization of the
Indian populace by the British gave rise to several stereotypes like the
manly Sikh, the devious Maratha, and the loyal Gurkha
…a reaction to the warfare 'with France in
Europe', that 'The British Company' proceeded to involve itself more
actively with 'local politics.' This becomes particularly apparent when one
doesn't only consult British, but also French sources
Hindutva
The Secret
Backround of the Kashmir Problem
…overview of Atlantis and
Lemuria:
'World
Hindu Council'
Bengal: Making a New Hinduism:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.1:
Politics or Culture?: The Making of Religion in India Today, P.2
Politics or Culture?: Hindu and Muslim
Fundamentalism Today
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: The Anti Aryan Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Seek Mason, Will Travel
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Are you a Sikh?
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Polynesian Aryans
Reformed Aryans, in East
and West: The Orion Myth
Reformed
Aryans, in East and West: Aryan Christianity
our overview about India
|
Spy Agencies – Secret Intelligence
Services
|
The Agents Who Risked All
Behind Nazi Lines.
The Noor Inayat Khan
Story.
The Spying Program.
How To Spy On China.
The Harrowing Story Of A Double Agent.
Possibility That Chinese Spy
Balloon’s Path Over The US Was Accidental.
Why Are Meteorologists Tracking
The Location Of The Chinese Balloon?
Codename
Madeleine.
The
Secretive PWE Political Warfare Executive.
The
Inside World About Spy Agencies Revealed.
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies
part three
Meet the new world today’s spy agencies part two
Important
Case Study:
Meet the new world today's spy agencies
|
Syria Crisis – Lebanon, Yemen
|
The
Path To A Regional Order.
The Measure Of Their
Effectiveness Will Be In How The Houthis Respond.
Regional Conflicts Resemble World War II.
The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
U.S. Strikes Targets
In Syria.
Yemen's Humanitarian Crisis.
Time To Move On.
What Needs To Happen Next.
The Making Of The Middle East.
The Making Of The Modern Middle
East Part 2.
The ‘Arab’ And The Syrian Question.
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part Two
Making of the Middle East's hidden history
Part One
..conflict in Yemen seems anything but over
The Syrian civil war and the Middle East
going forward
Did Aleppo's Grozny moment arrive? If
there was ever any hope of salvaging the latest cease-fire in Syria, there
isn't anymore
Investigating the never-ending Great War
As suggested
by me earlier … International
rivalry and the battle for Syria
...Aleppo, question is for how long
…entered the Ramouseh Artillery
Base… Who
are the rebels and how will Assad and Russia respond
.. Syrian Civil War…The
make or break battle currently underway, rebels appear to be losing
FM denounces "cynical game" of
Syrian regime and rebuked Moscow
How close is ISIS to defeat, and will
Turkey invade Syria?
Does the Middle East Need New Borders?
Fighting in Syria seen problematic for
Damascus while exit strategy for Assad under discussion
Obama’s Syria and What the Confrontation
Will Look Like:
The Sunni-Shia struggle
The Arab World in Transition 2013
Why the War in Syria will not end with the
removal of the al Assad regime
Why Assad Won’t Use Chemical Weapons, yet
why we should still be worried
The contradictory web that fuels conflicts
in the Middle East
Upcoming turmoil in Asia?
Lebanon and what next with Syria: Charting
the course of future events
Background forms the rebel Free Syrian Army
supply lines in Lebanon
T
Taiwan
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand
Turkey
Turkey In Context
The Perils of the Taiwan Strait.
Major
Case Study:
The lead up to present-day China and the
making of the ChinaTaiwan crisis
After Hong Kong deterrence vs Taiwan?
Taiwan going forward
Is China planning to take Taiwan by force?
Taiwan Conundrum
Thailand, China, And The US.
Uighur terrorist attack in China, a
shoot-out between the Koreas along their disputed maritime border and, to
top it off, a coup in Thailand
Thailand and the Political and Economic Volatility
in Important Markets
The insurgency in
Thailand: Multiple Dilemmas
Turkey In Context.
Will Erdogan Stay in Power?
Erdogan’s
Foot-Dragging On Sweden And Finland Is Causing Headaches For Western
Leaders.
Turkey
And Russia: Friends For Now.
Turkey in context today
Conclusion
about what is really happening in Turkey
Turkey's
government fears second coup
Turkey’s
new Sultanate
Why
Turkey shot down the Russian Jet
… more
than a year ago
…Turkey
and Armenia…
Turkish bid for EU membership …. today:
Introduction
Evolving Turkey P.1
Evolving Turkey P.2
Evolving Turkey P.3
Evolving Turkey P.4
Evolving Turkey P.5
…aligned itself
…former Islamist
Conclusion and Bibliography
Case Study:
…Turkish and Japanese
foreign policies, and why. Continue...
Erdogan
And Hamas.
Turkey In Context
U
UAE
Ukraine
United Kingdom
United Nations, UN
United States
The UAE And Its Talest Building In The World
How to Create a Durable Peace in Europe.
Stop Fearing Victory.
American Aid Alone
Won’t Save Ukraine.
The Way Forward In
Ukraine.
Obstacles To Diplomacy In
Ukraine.
What NATO Membership Will
Require.
Winning The
Battle But Losing The War.
Why The War Might Defy
Expectations.
Preparing For American
Abandonment.
The Quiet Transformation.
The Ukraine-Taiwan
Tradeoff.
All This Could
Encourage Further Adventurism.
Negotiations Over
Territory.
The Missing Escalation In
Ukraine.
Will The West Abandon Ukraine?
What Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.
Ukraine And Next.
Back In The Ukraine Trenches.
The War Of Endurance.
Postwar Ukraine.
End In Sight For The Ukraine War.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
How Wars Don’t End Ukraine,
Russia, and the Lessons of World War I.
How The West Can Secure
Ukraine’s Future.
What Really Happened To The Kakhovka Dam?
Let Ukraine Join NATO Now.
Vexing The Ukraine War On The Ground.
How Ukraine Learned To Fight.
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive.
A Loophole In The Law.
Ukrainian War Going Forward.
Ukraine Today.
Why NATO Must Admit Ukraine.
A Partial Victory Will Solve
Little.
Waiting On Weapons.
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
The Presence Of Kishida In Kyiv And Xi In Moscow.
A Plan For Getting To The
Negotiating Table.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How To Protect Ukraine Without
NATO Membership.
Ukraine’s
Determination.
How To
Prepare For Peace Talks In Ukraine.
The
Conversations When Ukraine Wins.
Fortifying
Ukraine.
Make The
Position Of The Russian Military Untenable.
Key To
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
The
Urgent Issues That Preoccupy Much Of The Developing World.
The War
Will Go On Into Next Year.
An Even
More Intransigent Regime.
Ukraine’s
Coming Electricity Crisis.
What
Ukraine Needs To Liberate Crimea.
Breakthrough
In Ukraine.
Kennan
On Ukraine.
Reading
Like A Spynovel This is What Happened.
Why Some
Wars Don’t End.
Russia As State Sponsor Of Terrorism And
More.
Putin And Ukraine’s Nuclear Reactors.
The Ukrainian Saboteurs Behind Enemy
Lines.
Divide And Conquer.
How The US Can Help.
The Situation Ukraine Is Facing This
Winter.
We Analyse What The Result Of The
Airstrikes Will Be.
Putin's Atomic Gamble.
Game-Changer For Current And Future
Conflicts.
How Ukraine Can Take Back All Its
Territory.
Ukraine As A Poison Pill For Putin.
Putin’s Eventual Replacement.
Putin Threated Nuclear Response.
The UNGA Meeting.
The Nuclear Strike Aimed At Shock?
Mobilize, Retreat, Or Something In Between?
Why Support For Ukraine Will Withstand
Russian Pressure.
Is Ukraine Going To Win This War?
Africa’s Ukraine Dilemma.
Xi Jinping's
Strategic Predicament And The View From Washington.
From Ukraine
to Taiwan.
Putin's Victory
Speech.
How
The World Lost Faith In The UN.
The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.
The Red Book.
Royalty And The Nazi's
Part One.
The Secret History Of The Glastonbury
Festival.
Sunak Hopes To Mend Fences With Europe.
The UK Today.
Why The House Of Windsor Will
Ultimately Fall.
Can Sunak Save Britain?
The
Limits Of Monarchy.
The UK
Can Be Leading By Supporting.
The rise and fall of the Thomas Cook Group
Boris Johnson’s Majority Falls to One Seat,
Heightening Chances of an Election
Boris is back…Today’s
cabinet appointments sends a clear signal however
The next steps of Theresa May
"We're out", well sort of. The
Implications and Germany's nightmare:
What will happen after Brexit:
Where the Case Stands Now.
Can America’s Special Relationship With
Israel Survive?
How One
Man Seduced the U.S. Navy.
The End of NATO?
The Ongoing
Investigation.
Washington’s Fears
About Energy Markets.
Why U.S.
Credibility And Resolve Is At Stake.
The Tiktok Ban Shows How
Decisions End Up Rushed.
Why TikTok Needs To Get Out Of
The Hands Of The Chinese Government.
Showing An Industrial
Strategy.
Blinken-Xi Talks Also
Highlight Continued Areas Of Disagreement.
The Patron’s Dilemma.
The Politicization Of
The U.S. Military.
Japan Defense And China
Springboard.
US New World War.
Explaining America’s Global Role.
The
New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.
Bracing For Trump 2.0.
The West Needs A Strategy For
After The Counteroffensive.
Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?
How To Boost Cooperation.
The Formula For Managing Migration.
The Overlooked Influences On Donald Trump.
Think Twice Before You Launch A
Conflict.
The Global South.
Living On The Edge.
How Institutional Balancing Promotes Stability In Asia.
Ukraine And The American War Machine.
The Virtue Of Low Expectations.
The U.S.-Chinese Economic
Relationship.
Spread Too Thin?
Ukraine And U.S. National Security.
A Plan For Getting To The Negotiating
Table.
The New Age Of Great-Power
Competition.
The Leaked Documents.
America Fill The Missile Gap.
The Promise Of Military
Adaptation.
How Elites Misread Public Perceptions Of The War.
We Investigate A Sorbid History
Under Pressure.
The US Is Indispensable To Israel’s Safety And Security.
China Is A Paper Tiger.
Technology Defines The Future Of
Geopolitics.
Does Technology Win Wars?
Rattled By China, The U.S., And Its Allies Are Beefing Up Defenses
In The Pacific.
How
Biden White House Operated Under Cloak-And-Dagger Secrecy.
Far-Right
Movements In The Two Countries Are Deeply Interconnected.
America
Is Back.
U.S. To
Boost Military Role In Philippines As Fear Of Taiwan Conflict Grows.
Export
Control Cooperation From Allies.
What To
Expect From Xi's Third Term.
What To
Expect From The Xi-Biden Meeting.
Have Americans, As Is Claimed,
Been Conned?
Is A Major War To Come?
The United States Does Not
Need To Beat China.
A candid look at the why two atomic bombs
What the situation looks like going forward
Revisiting the Paranoid Style in American
Politics
The election could be a highly fluid situation
The Cost of Chaos review
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part two
Major Case Study:
The secret background of the
attack on Pearl Harbor part one
Major Case Study:
The origins of Trumpology
Why Washington should push for a resolution
to a disastrous war
The racist lie that is fueling the US
terrorist attacks
Includes update 20 April 2019: Why Robert Mueller is ending his report
How Israeli, Saudi, and Emirati officials
influenced Trump to strike a bargain with Putin
What Robert Mueller Knows
The Trump/Russia investigation
what can be said today
Woodrow Wilson, Versailles, and the making
of Eastern Europe
American Ascendance P.1: Asia in the New
Spatial Order
American Ascendance P.2: The China Blockade
American Ascendance P.3: The Japan Blockade
American Ascendance P.4: Opium War
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.1
The Anglo-Saxon Ascendancy: A Concise
Overview P.2
…over the course of the Mexican Revolution
...glaring
misadventures in Iraq
America at a Crossroads P.1:
The Truth about the Cold War
America at a Crossroads P.2:
Superpower Politics
America at a Crossroads P.3:
Anti-Americanism
America at a Crossroads P.3:
The Last
'WWIII'
Possible Future Conflicts from a US Point of View
V
Venezuela
Venice
The worsening situation will make 2015 a
crucial year for Venezuela:
The history of Venice beyond 2021
W
Warsaw
Pact
World - World Economy - History - Politics
WWI,
see also First World War
WWII,
see also Second World War
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part three
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact part two
The abandonment of the Warsaw Pact
Infrastructure
Is Remaking Geopolitics.
The Rest Of The World.
Why It Will Not
Surprise.
The Rising
Threat Of Illiberal Democracy.
…Their Failure To Act Fast Enough
On Climate Change Violates Their Human Rights.
Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting World.
The World Outside The Great Powers.
Why It’s So Hard To Forecast
Authoritarian Aggression.
How To Reduce The
Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.
There’s No Such Thing As A Great Power.
The State Of The World.
The World To Come.
Why The World Still Needs Trade.
Political Violence In Authoritarian Societies.
The Defence Of Global Order And Address Global Crises.
Make The Center Vital Again.
How To Survive A Great-Power Competition.
Managing A Multipolar World.
How The Fight For Resources Is Upending Geopolitics.
Tackling The Opportunity For Change.
Counter
Autocracy.
2023
Anual Forecast.
The
World Has Changed.
Those
Who Cannot Remember The Past Are Condemned To Repeat It.
Understanding The World By Means
Of A Geopolitical Approach.
This
Highlights A Socio-Economic Challenge That The World Needs To Tackle Before
It Gets Worse.
The
Long-Term Trend Is Concerning.
What To
Expect In 2023.
Remaining Robust Enough When
Malign Actors Are Denied Access.
The
World Faces A Zeitenwende.
Let Us
Be The Last Generation To Do So.
The Profound Economic And Financial
Shift.
The Direction Of The World Economy.
The Global
Effects Going Forward.
What the situation looks like going forward
China's pursuit of greatness
Economics and real-time revolution
From East to West and back to
East?
A few countries to look out for the next
six months
How the end of an age is not the same as
the end of history
Major Case Study:
The outlook of the world in 2020
What 2020 will bring P.2
What 2020 will bring P.1
From new economics to new
politics
Major Case Study:
North and South Korea, China, Russia, the
US, Iran, Mexico, India, Central and South America, Turkey, and so on
A look at other developments going forward
in 2017
Forecast for Asia, Europe, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Former Soviet Union, Middle East/North Africa, South Asia, Latin
America
Apocaliptic Politics During the 20st
Century and Beyond
World Finance
Introduction
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Stock Markets and Economics
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of Inshurance Risks
World Finance Today:
Worldwide
History of the Housing Bubble
Following an assessment of current finance crash;
the international situation,
Europe, China/Japan and S.America, plus Korea…Continue...
The
Genetics of Finance: Putting the Credit Crisis in Perspective
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WWI, see also First World War
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The tribulations and
consequences of the Treaty of Versailles
Why World War I was
pivotal to the creation of the modern Middle East
Shantung the Versailles
Treaty and the Manchurian episode
A new investigation why
the First World War broke out
The Real Russian Origins of the
First World War
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.1
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.2
Major Case Study:
What led to the Frist
World War P.3
What led to the First
World War P.4
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.1:
The ‘Arab revolt’,
Britain, and the Collapse of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.2:
The Arab question and the
‘shocking document’ that shaped the Middle East
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.3:
The Menace of Jihad
and How to Deal with It
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.4:
The ‘Arab’ and the
‘Jewish’ question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.5:
The Syrian question
From Versailles to the Making of the modern Middle
East P.6:
The Paris Peace
Conference deliberations
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.6:
The importance of oil, the
‘Arab question’, and the British
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.7:
The unresolved sectarian
issue in Lebanon today
From Versailles to the Making of the Modern Middle
East P.8:
British rule, Arab
Spring-revolt, and the Syria crisis today
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.1
The true history of the Balfour
Declaration and its implementations P.2
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.3
The true history of the
Balfour Declaration and its implementations P.4
WWI's Religious Ideology
From Colonization to de-Colonization
…newly researched documents...took this a step further
From Shandong to Versailles:
China's participation in the First World War
Why We
were Entering a Century of Genocide
The
second First World War
The conspiracy theory
that gave rise to Hitler:
P.1 Reparations and the
famous Article 231
Investigating the
never-ending Great War
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WWII, see also Second World War
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From Hitler to Stalin P.1
From Hitler to Stalin P.2
From Hitler to Stalin P.3
From Hitler to Stalin P.4
From Hitler to Stalin P.5
The Nazi Documents P.1: The Russian Connection
The
Secret War Between the Allies:
The Final Secret of WWII: The Murder of
Hitler
The Secret Archive
Hess/Hitler overture to England
The Mistake of Peter Longerich
Alternative Histories of the 20 to 21
Century we start with the making of WWII today
…the Cold War: Continue:
…Comment
Asia and Cold War
The Vatican’s
War P.1
The
Vatican’s War P.2
The
Vatican’s War P.3
From Belgium
to Kosovo Research
The
Vatican’s War P.4
The
Vatican’s War P.5
The
Nazi/Vatican Connection P.6
The
Valkyrie Debate P.1
The
Valkyrie Debate P.2
The
Valkyrie Debate P.3
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.1
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.2
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.3
Protestant Nazi Hopes P.4
Protestant
Nazi Hopes P.5:
Conclusion
Z
Zionism
The way to Zionism Part Three
The way to Zionism Part Two
The way to Zionism
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Esoterica
going Mainstream
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Esotericism,
Freemasonry, and Conspiracy
…main aspects of Western esoteric traditions
have their foundations in antiquity…
Case Study:
From Numerology to Magic and Esoteric Christianity
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.1
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.2
Hermetic Alchemy and Zosimus of Panopolis and Iamblichus P.3
New History of the Hermetica P.1: Hermes
Times Three
New History of the Hermetica P.2: The
Sabian Myth
New History of the Hermetica P.3: Middle East
Disporea
The Rosicrucians
Freemasonry
The Occult Revival in America P.1
The Occult Revival in America P.2
Alleged New Age Religions
the
Goetheanum
Harry Potter 6 and Gnosis: The Search for
the Higher Self
…founder of Scientology L.R. Hubbard to create
a 'moonchild' by means of 'Magic'…
first ever history of this idea rooted as it is, in Paracelsian
Magic
Reincarnation: The Invention of a Modern
Myth
New Age or Emerging Religions?
The 1920's
Vinland Map - A Legend is Born
Alternative
History books:
The Nazi Occult Myth
ABC News UFO's: The Day After
UFO's as Conspiracy Theory
From Esotericism to Pop Culture
From Esotericism to Pop Culture P.2
Update
From
Aleister Crowley to Scientology
Case Study:
New Religious Movements –
Rudolf Steiner/Waldorf Schools P.1 of 2
We successfully questioned the term "Gnostic" and
"Gnosticism"
Dan Brown's two recent books
Case Study:
New Religious Movements -
Spiritualism
P.1
Case Study:
New Religious Movements:
Spiritualism
P.2
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.3
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.4
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.5
Case Study New Religious Movements
Spiritualism P.6
P.1: The Making of Spiritism
P.2: Christian Spiritist Conversion
P.3: To England Now
P.4:
Occult Orders
P.5: Taming the Wild Spirits
P.6: Revelation of the Revelation
P.7: Text Related Occult Conversions
P.8: An Occult Sociological Profile
P.9: Phenomena on Trial
P.10: Theosophical Fights
P.11: Nazis and The Occult
P.12: Cults of the Self
P.13: The Esoteric
P.14: The Never Ending Mystery?
P.15: Psychic Androginity
P.16: Cosmological Searches
Comment: The Forgotten Monarchy Discovered
From Robert Anton Wilson to the Da Vinci Code Prank: The Californian
Illuminati
Introducing
H.P. Blavatsky
H.P.Blavatsky
and her 'Masters' of the Theosophical Society
Search
For Astral Projection: The Investigation
The
Hodgson Report
The
Hodgson Report P.2
The
Hodgson Report P.3
Finding
the Theosophical Masters and Mahatmas
Blavatsky's
Final Work
After
Blavatsky P.1: Krishnamurti, the Fashioning of a Mahatma
After
Blavatsky P.2: Fashioning the Future Race
Race and Literary
Nationalism
Enter Scientology:
Investigating,
UFOs Seeing is Believing?
The
Secret of the Cabalah/ Qabbalah
New History
of Jewish Kabbalism
Establishing the Christian Kabbalah, P.1: Rewriting Frances A. Yates
Establishing
the Christian Kabbalah, P.3: F.M. van Helmont
Zosimos
of Panopolis and the Book of Enoch
While somnambulist ventures like the
Course in Miracles have been well researched…
The Key of Solomon P.1: The Making of Witchcraft
The Key of Solomon P.2: Occult Science
The Key of Solomon
P.3: Magical
Revival
Conspiracy
Theories P.1
Conspiracy
Theories P.2
Conspiracy
Questions or Answers?
The
Rise and Fall of the Silver Shirts
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.1
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.2
auf Deutsch
Towards
"a Sociology of Conspiracy Theories" P.3
Neoplatonism, Philology and Nationalism
Geschichtliche Entwicklung des Ariermythos
The True Story Behind "The Aquarian Gospel" Movie:
Conspiracy
Theories
DaVinci
Code Matrix
From
Invented Witchcraft To The Carlos Castaneda's legacy
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman:
The
'Werdegang' of Mary Wigman P.2:
Inventing
The Mormon Tradition
Major Case Study:
Paganism and Early Christianity in N. Europe P.2
The
Positive Thinking Movement P.2
Case Study:
Ungern P.1: The Revolution
Self Help Books as Popular Culture: Introduction
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.1
Self
Help Books as Popular Culture P.2
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6 November 2024: During his
first term, President Donald Trump changed the course of American foreign
policy, from ramping up competition with China to stepping back from
international institutions. Campaigning again in 2024, he promised to
revive his “America first” agenda - and this time, take it even further.
Essays by experts, policymakers, and Trump advisers past and present
consider what Trump’s second term could mean for the United States and the
world.
- Ideas do not belong to specific places. They 'belong' wherever
they happen to take root. Culturalist ideas developed in the human sciences
have a resonance well beyond Europe or North America. Indeed they provide
many of the intellectual resources for the construction of the Asia/West
dichotomy on which the cultural politics of in this case Confucian/Asian
democracy rests. There is also a case regarding the cluster of concepts
that underpin 'Asian values' and 'Asian identity' as assembled very largely
on the edifice of ' Asia ' studied by Western scholars. Singapore and Asia.
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- With growing military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, there
are concerns over the broader impact of this alignment on East Asian
security dynamics. U.S. officials echoed Zelenskyy's concerns, noting the
gravity of North Korea's involvement and its potential to undermine
stability in multiple regions. First-Ever
Ukraine Clash with North Korean Troops Sparks Fears of Escalating Global
Conflict.
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- Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as the next Secretary General of
NATO, warned Pyongyang’s involvement in the Ukraine war could mark the
start of a “far
darker” phase of conflict.
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- American political leaders: Undermining
the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy
may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s
undermining the winner's legitimacy pays political dividends. American
democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead - America’s Era of Violent
Populism.
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More
than 200 people have lost their lives after the flooding swept through
streets, turning walkways into rivers and trapping people in their homes
and on the roofs of cars.
Flooded
Barcelona Airport:
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A suspected
Russian arson attack on a DHL warehouse in Birmingham was a test run for future
attacks on the US, Polish officials have said, after arresting some of the alleged
criminals involved.
- A spokesperson for the U.S.
Transportation Security Administration said in a statement that the agency
had implemented additional security measures to prevent sabotage
involving U.S.-bound cargo shipments.
Ë
- Russia is preparing strikes on nuclear
infrastructure facilities in the territory of Ukraine. Two devices that
ignited in Europe, officials say, were part of a covert operation to put
them on cargo or passenger aircraft. As the Ukrainian News Agency earlier
reported, the aggressor country Russia uses Chinese satellites to
photograph Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which may indicate preparations
for strikes on them. How the War in Ukraine Could Go Nuclear.
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- Over the decades, Israel has tried,
whether through military or political action, to shape Lebanon according to
its interests. It’s repeatedly failed, with its actions sometimes helping
to create new foes, as was the case with Hezbollah. Today, Israel’s
willingness to try to influence internally. Lebanese politics seems to be
no different: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to
destroy the country unless it pushes Hezbollah. To Know the Context.
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Spain Suffers Worst Natural Disaster in its History:
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- China seeks to radically reshape the
international order in the long term while maintaining it in the short
term. However, by stoking tensions with the West, Xi is weakening China’s
economy and complicating its geopolitical ambitions. Moldova’s pro-Western president wins
vote overshadowed by Russian meddling claims.
- On an Island that is not dissimilar to
Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, China (in Hainan) has built an ability to project
power with multiple types of capabilities; air, missile, militia, ships,
and submarines. The Need to Forestall a Chinese Attack?
- China-based hackers penetrated the
networks of U.S. telecom providers and might have penetrated the system. The Worldwide Reach of Chinese Spies.
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- Archaeologists exploring the interior
of the Karazhartas Pyramid have made several intriguing discoveries. At the
heart of the mausoleum lies a sarcophagus structure, surrounded by granite
stones. Inside the sarcophagus, researchers unearthed the skull of a
local ruler, providing a fascinating glimpse into the identity of the
individual interred within.
This grand structure measures approximately 65 feet by 98 feet and
rises to a height of about 5 feet at its apex.
- The rituals of the Bronze Age
inhabitants of Kazakhstan involved offerings to celestial bodies like the
sun and the moon, as well as to fire and protective "ongun"
spirits. These religious practices shed light on the spiritual beliefs and
cultural traditions of the Begazy-Dandibay culture.
The burial ground contains 32 structures that are monuments of the
Begazy-Dandybai culture.
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Leaves on a tree are the reason we can breathe and rest in a cool spot on a
sunny day. Their role is critical to our everyday lives, but it’s also
worth admiring the special day-to-day actions that allow them to flourish
on our planet. Why do leaves change color? Here’s the science behind
deciduous trees.
 
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- A deadly axis of hostile anti-American
and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined
to challenge U.S. global primacy. Russia, China, and North Korea are
nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated
geopolitical flashpoints in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific could
converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances, and firm deterrence will
be needed to meet this growing threat. North
Korean Troops Mark a New Escalation.
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- Iran fired two of the largest barrages
of ballistic missiles ever at Israel this year. Even the world’s best
defenses don’t always stop them.
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Confirmation that North Korea has deployed combat troops to assist Russian
President Vladimir Putin in his full-scale invasion of Ukraine marks a
dangerous escalation. In a worst-case scenario, it threatens to expand a
European war into a global conflict encompassing the Asia-Pacific region.
It is also a reminder of the high-stakes of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential
election, as candidates wrangle over how the United States responds to such
threats. America and its allies, in Asia as well as Europe, must coordinate
their response.
- The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center
warned last month that Russian operatives were ramping up efforts to
disseminate conspiracy-laden videos to malign Harris's campaign. Other
efforts to sow falsehoods include hundreds of pro-Kremlin sites disguised as
American "news"
outlets that are fueling an explosion of polarizing or false election
narratives.
- A spinoff of the Russian
“troll factory” that targeted the 2016 US presidential election now
appears to be at the heart of a disinformation campaign trying to sway
Western and especially US audiences, according to an investigation by
researchers at Clemson University’s Media Forensics Hub.
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- The flooding in eastern Spain, already
the deadliest
disaster in the country’s recent history, is a foretaste of the extreme
storms that global warming will cause. The same can happen anywhere.
 
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In the cases of Malaysia, Java, Sumatra,
and Borneo Imperial Japan argued that despite the vast lands and rich
resources, the Japanese were not granting them any level or kind of
independence, not even a false one, which they had granted to Burma or the Philippines.
They also pointed out that the Japanese always openly addressed those
regions as Japanese territories and colonies. The Greater East
Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere Part One of Two.
Japan was not an easy opponent to deal
with. The discussion committee for the establishment of the Greater East
Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere decided that considering the various situations
the overseas Chinese population was representing, it would be wise not to
employ a single policy for various situations, and it would be especially
important to employ active control and utilization in dealing with the
economically powerful individuals or groups within the overseas Chinese
society, instead of just letting them do their businesses. The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere Part Two of Two.
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China built a $50 billion military
stronghold in the South China Sea.
A campaign of chaos conducted under the
cover of an anti-Hezbollah offensive will only have limited political
benefit to Netanyahu and his government. Israel Brings Its Gaza Strategy
to Lebanon.
Hopefully, Xi will change course.
He would bear much of the blame for preventing the Communist Party
from fulfilling its pledges to make China a “moderately developed economy”
by 2035 and a “strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious, and modern socialist
country” by 2049. Xi Jinping’s Axis of Losers.
We have learned to never underestimate
the strategic advantage of a just cause. And we learned that free people
will always refuse to replace an open order of rules and rights with one
dictated by force and fear. What’s at
Stake in Kyiv’s Fight for Freedom.
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What Washington is doing with its
military in the Indo-Pacific, creates several potential pathways to
preclude Chinese efforts to overturn the status quo, increases the
complexity of those contingencies, and induces uncertainty about which may
be the most relevant. It will indeed be difficult to know whether any
particular U.S. partner will prove willing to use or allow the use of
military assets from its territory in a conflict. But that uncertainty is a
feature, not a bug. Simply put, although the United States may not have
full clarity about what role specific allies and partners will play should
a conflict erupt, neither does China. The Return
of Total War.
In today's uncertain moments, the
secretary-general of the United Nations can explore and create
opportunities for conflict resolution. After all the UN has the authority
and credibility to play this role. And over the coming years,
it may make all the difference between global war and peace. Can the United Nations Be Saved?
$1 Billion US Weapons System Lands in
Israel Amid Preparation to Attack Iran.
The best outcome for the Middle East, and
the world is two sustainable, representative, forward-looking visions. The
worst outcome is two backward-looking regimes clinging to past grievances.
The former may be difficult to achieve. But the consequences of the latter
would be nothing short of catastrophic. The New Battle for the Middle
East Saudi Arabia and Iran’s Clash of Visions.
The
FBI announced it was investigating the leak of classified US intelligence
documents about Israel's plans for a retaliatory strike on Iran. The claim
that American-Iranian Tabatabai Leaked Israel's Iran Attack Plans has been
disproven.
Seen
underneath Rocket attacks on Tel Aviv
As Reported By The New York Times IDF names 6 Al Jazeera journalists as members of Hamas, Islamic
Jihad after uncovering documents. Next on October 24, the IDF published further
documents captured in Gaza that it said indicated close cooperation
between Hamas and Al Jazeera, including papers in which the terror group
advised the Qatari network not to criticize it, and in which the sides
coordinated on concealing incidents of failed rocket launches.
During the most harrowing nuclear crisis
in history, Kennedy assembled the ExComm to try to mitigate the danger
McNamara would later cite. Although the world looks much different now than
it did during the Cold War, with new rivals and alliances and a more
complex set of imperatives guiding geopolitics, it is no less dangerous.
Requiring that presidents consult with others before making the most
fateful decision in human history would make the United States and the
world a safer place. Presidents Shouldn’t
Make the Biggest Decision by Themselves.
The reality is that anything the United
States does to impose costs on China will upset Beijing. The only way to
avoid that is to give it what it wants, which is territorial control over
Taiwan, maritime control of the South China Sea, and economic, military,
and political dominance in Asia. Washington cannot be afraid to make China
pay for helping bad actors, especially when holding back lets Beijing
pretend to be above the fray. The
Military Logic of Beijing’s Growing Partnerships.
When President Xi Jinping attended the
opening banquet of the Second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing. As
well as offering fine words about regional cooperation, Xi wanted to talk
about history. ‘For millennia, the Silk Road had witnessed how countries
achieved development and prosperity through commerce and enriched their
cultures through exchanges,’ he told the delegations. Developing Modern China.
Today what previously was an important friction point on the roof
of the world, has been greatly diminished. The disengagement of troops
of India and China has started in Demchok and Depsang Plains in the Eastern
Ladakh sector.
Soe Thuya Zaw, a commander of the Burmese
Mandalay People's Defense Forces, said China’s influence was a
“reality," but that groups like his farther from the border could lead
in the fight for Mandalay. Myanmar and Southeast Asia.
Israel
launched airstrikes early Saturday on military targets in Iran in
retaliation for a ballistic missile assault Oct. 1, officials said. There
was no immediate information on damage in the Islamic Republic. Israel’s
military described the attack as “precise strikes on military targets in
Iran,” without immediately elaborating.
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The feared Israel-Hezbollah war is
happening, but it is remarkably one-sided so far. In September, Israel
detonated thousands of Hezbollah
pagers and
walkie-talkies. It then commenced large-scale bombing of over 1,000 targets
in Lebanon and stepped up its military campaign against Hezbollah leaders,
culminating in the killing of Secretary-General
Hassan Nasrallah. Israeli forces have
also crossed into Lebanon, destroying Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure, and
pushing its fighters away from the border.
Hezbollah has fought back. The militant
group has launched drone
attacks into Israel,
including one on an Israeli military base that killed four people and
another on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s holiday
home in Caesarea.
A subject we widely covered more
than a decade ago
suddenly (not long before a US election) gets the attention of the
President of the USA who spoke out about it. In his address, Biden
apologizes for past
U.S. policy on boarding schools for Indigenous children. Thousands
of children are estimated to have died. Many of the deceased are still
to be identified. Many were
physically, emotionally, and sexually abused, and not mentioned by
President Biden, more than 950 died. See our previous parts; One, Two, Three, Four, Five.
The Jewish state's massive military
attack against key Iranian bases could ultimately be the final nail in the
Islamic Republic's coffin.
Biden 'knew and encouraged' Israel to
bomb Iran to 'deter further attacks'. Tel Aviv Issues a Chilling Ultimatum.
Israel heeded President Joe Biden’s
counsel not to destroy the Iranian regime’s core strategic assets, lest
Tehran lashes back with an attack on Saudi oil interests or U.S. troops.
That could trigger a general war in the region at the height of a close and
globally fateful U.S. election campaign. Biden reinforced those pleas with
concrete shows of U.S. backing, such as the deployment of a defensive
missile battery to Israel, and U.S. troops to operate it, and a B-2 strike
on Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Israel’s
Attack on Iran.
A concerted strategy of international
engagement to support free elections could blunt the march of illiberal
populism, strengthen civil societies, help restore democratic vitality in
pivotal countries, and yield the largest harvest of democratic transitions
since the global democratic recession began. Once democracy regains its
momentum, even entrenched dictatorships will be under pressure. The
alternative is a continued authoritarian drift toward a world of increasing
polarization, repression, conflict, and violence. How to End the Democratic Recession.
The Gulf states will not cut off ties
with China except in narrowly scoped areas, and even then such decisions
will always be open to renegotiation. Without serious efforts at mitigation
in the form of sustained investments in both physical and cybersecurity,
building massive data centers in non-allied countries increases the risks
of intellectual property theft and misuse, especially if those centers host
the weights of frontier models (the parameters that encode the core
intelligence of an AI system). The
Emerging Age of AI Diplomacy.
Why do Drone swarms hold enormous
potential? Given the interest that major military powers are expressing
toward this emerging technology, drone swarms are likely to eventually
become a prominent feature of 21st-century warfare. Geopolitical Implications How Warfare Evolved.
The Philippine government estimates that
more than 6,252 people have been gunned down by the police and
"unknown assailants" in Duterte's "war on drugs".
Rights groups say the numbers could run into the tens of thousands. The
problem is, that evidence shows that many of them died without having
anything to do with drugs. Former Philippine president Duterte has
admitted that he kept a death squad. The squad was made of gangsters,
adding that he would tell them "Kill this person, because if you do
not, I will kill you now".
China, Iran, and Russia have declared war
on American democracy. They’re doing a good job of mounting their attacks
while Washington has not done enough to defend the country’s information
space. Without a credible deterrence policy, these enemies will keep
seeking to undermine the United States. How Russia, China, and Iran Seek
to Spread Disinformation and Chaos in the United States.
U.S.
diplomatic efforts are critical to stemming the escalating violence in
Lebanon and reducing the risk of armed conflict between the United States
and Iran. To get what it wants - and what the region needs - Washington
should think smaller, crafting an agreement that makes up for what it lacks
in ambition with elements tailored to quell each side’s most pressing
anxieties. Israel has the upper hand right now and will want to press its
advantage in pursuit of “total victory.”
Hezbollah has a weak hand, but to avoid
the appearance of defeat, it will hold out for a cease-fire that results in
Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and an end to airstrikes. The
Least Bad Option for Lebanon.
It is a dangerous blunder to gullibly
accept their show of bowing to the ostensible will of the people. And when
popular grievances are used as a pretext for bad policy - or, even worse,
as a pretext for democratic backsliding - it is politicians, not the
citizenry, who are culpable. The Populist
Phantom.
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Surrounded by Italy on all
sides, the Republic of San Marino, - the third smallest in Europe
- has stubbornly clung to its independence over the centuries, even as
revolutions and world wars swirled around it. And no, we’re not talking
about Vatican City, but another microstate within Italy - San Marino, the
world’s fifth smallest country, also considered the oldest country in
Europe.
Humanity bestrides the planet, explores the cosmos, and continues to
reshape itself because humans are the world’s most inventive, adaptable
animal. But it will take more than a bit of inventiveness and adaptability
to cope with the unintended future consequences of the family and fertility
choices being made today. Surviving a World Gone Gray.
Turkey and Syria also have
overlapping interests in limiting the growth of Syrian Kurdish separatists.
Syrian President Bashar Assad wants to regain control of the territory he
lost in the northeast, and Ankara wants to weaken Kurdish separatism in
Syria because it poses a threat to Turkey. Ankara has its work cut out for
it, and Tehran will not give up without a fight. Iran’s Losses Could Be
Turkey’s Gains.
After more than two and a half years of fighting, most polling shows
Russians generally displaying support, or at least acquiescence, to the
war, though some dents appear to be showing. In the highly censored online
environment, there are few complaints about the extraordinary rates of
Russian losses, let alone expressions of sympathy for Ukrainians. Yet
people do worry openly when the war affects their self-interests. Putin’s Greatest Weakness.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Southeast Asian leaders
Friday that the U.S. is concerned about China's “increasingly dangerous and
unlawful” activities in the disputed South China Sea during an annual
summit meeting, and pledged the U.S. will continue to uphold freedom of
navigation in the vital sea trade route. To the
Members of ASEAN Belong Among Others also China and India the Two Most
Populous Countries in the World.
Ultimately, Iran’s capabilities are less important to the outcome of
the conflict than the U.S.-Israeli relationship. The past year may have
tested their ties, but it has yet to fully break them. This means that
Washington will likely accept any Israeli response, which we believe will
yield some restraint, however small it may be. Israel’s ideal scenario is
the elimination of Iran. But an acceptable, second-best goal is to make
certain the anti-Israel factions are gone. Israel can't change the reality
of Iran’s existence, but perhaps it thinks it can change the way it interacts
with Hamas and Hezbollah. Gaming out
Israeli and Iranian Retaliation.
A recent wave of suspected
Iranian-ordered attacks include a hand grenade thrown at the Israeli Embassy
in Stockholm and a Spanish politician shot in the face in broad daylight.
As Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Netanyahu has learned
from more than 20 years of experience that US pressure is something he can
withstand, if not ignore. Netanyahu knows that the US, particularly in an
election year, will not take action that forces him to divert from his
chosen course (and believes, in any event, that he is fighting America’s
enemies too). Yet Biden Called Netanyahu ‘a Bad F-Ing Guy’.
For Iran’s leaders, the sudden exposure of its vulnerabilities may
fuel an increased appetite for risk - risks that they may hope will
compensate for mounting failures and prevent future ones. Yet a change to
its nuclear doctrine is unlikely to resolve the Islamic Republic’s
strategic dilemmas. A move toward a nuclear weapon would likely bring
conflict in the short term. Iran’s Year
of Living Dangerously.
In the context of a
possible attack on Iran by Israel, the US deploys the THAAD anti-ballistic
missile system to Israel with US troops that will go to Israel to operate
it.
The Israeli army took reporters to what they said was a Hezbollah
tunnel shaft some 219 yards (200 meters) from a UN post in southern Lebanon
on Sunday (October 13).
History is replete with the remains of empires that were imprisoned
by habit. From the Romans to the Habsburgs, fighting continual wars on
multiple fronts against multiple foes led to mounting debts and eventually
to irreversible decline. U.S. foreign policy today risks meeting the same
fate. How the Next President Can Make
Change in a System Built to Resist it?
China is holding military exercises around Taiwan, in what it calls
a "stern warning" against those seeking "independence"
for the self-ruled island. Taiwan's
Ally, the US, Says it is Monitoring the Drills.
Many in the West may be
reluctant to face the truth: that the past year has only made nuclear
weapons a more attractive tool for the Iranian regime’s own survival. Iran’s Nuclear Tipping
Point.
Armed and masked Palestinians seen on
trucks loaded with international humanitarian aid, blocking the
aid entering Gaza through the Israeli Kerem Shalom Crossing in the
southern Gaza Strip.
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China launched a large-scale, one-day military drill Monday that
simulated a blockade of Taiwan. The exercise, code-named “Joint Sword –
2024B,” involved the People’s Liberation Army Navy, PLA Air Force, PLA
Rocket Force and China Coast Guard. The drill was a response to Taiwan
President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech, in which he asserted Taiwan’s
independence from China. The Election of
William Lai.
After Israel’s success in eliminating Hezbollah’s military and
political leadership, Nasrallah’s deputy, Naim Qassem, informed Lebanese
Prime Minister Najib Mikati of the party’s readiness to withdraw to north
of the Litani River. He also authorized the head of the Amal Movement,
Nabih Berri, who has been parliamentary speaker since 1992, to negotiate
arrangements on behalf of Hezbollah to stop the war, paving the way for
placing the party under the mantle of the Amal Movement, which would be a
major shift in the balance of power among the Shiites of Lebanon. The Group Falsely Believed Its Domination of Lebanese
Politics was Permanent.
At the moment, the escalation of the war in Lebanon, as well as
Israel’s resolve to retaliate against Iranian strikes, is obscuring the
divisions regarding the West Bank. But those differences form a critical
fault line. Israel’s Hidden War.
Many young Russians will learn to do two things simultaneously:
adapt to the rules of the system but still think another way. Eventually,
the external political environment will change, and when that happens, this
widespread double consciousness could allow them to reject the stifling
system they have known. Putin’s Children.
The likely prospect is that even a wider conflict would remain
constrained by the limitations of distance, diplomacy, and strategy that
have shaped the war that is already underway. Iran and Israel Face Limitations that Make Massive
Escalation Unlikely.
Decades of ambiguity and compromise have left neither Taiwan China nor
the United States fully satisfied. But almost by definition, any outcome
that fully satisfied one party would be unacceptable to another, so
Washington’s goal should be to find a status quo that all sides can live
with. It’s a fine balancing act, but that is what diplomacy is all
about. How to Avert Catastrophe at the
World’s Most Dangerous Flash Point.
Israeli military forces discovered state-of-the-art Russian
weaponry during searches of Hezbollah militants' bases in southern Lebanon.
Rather than worrying about the emergence of a new Cold War,
Washington should work to build a new global diplomatic-security concert,
toward which a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty can be an important step. The Real Purpose of a U.S.-Saudi Security Agreement.
Earlier
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a video statement marking
a year since Hamas’s October 7,
2023, terror onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred
souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of
all hostages.
Hamas military
commander Yahya Sinwar the architect of the worst
atrocity conducted against Jews since
the Holocaust, has been
killed by Israel.
The dynamics created by Yahya
Sinwar’s killing can be leveraged toward a ceasefire, this could have
implications for ending the war in Lebanon. Such a shift would deprive Iran
of two of its most valuable regional assets and, in doing so, diminish its
pernicious influence in the region. The
Control of Gaza, Hostage Release, and Ceasefire Talks.
European businesses’ inclination toward
SEZs, which rely on the largesse of their respective governments, reflects
a growing caution about escalating geopolitical risks. When businesses are
squeamish, it usually indicates a belief that global tensions will continue
to rise, not fall. Past Changes, Future Problems.
For decades, Russian exports centered on raw
materials, primarily oil and gas, with the European Union as the key buyer.
Oil revenues directly funded Moscow's budget, making the halting of exports
a potential pressure point on the Kremlin. The Rise of Russia's Shadow
Fleet.
The Silk Road may have formally opened up
trade between the Far East and Europe during the Han Dynasty, which ruled
China from 206 B.C. to A.D. 220 Han Emperor Wu sent imperial envoy Zhang
Qian to make contact with cultures in Central Asia in 138 B.C., and his
reports from his journeys conveyed valuable information about the people
and lands that lay to the West. But transporting goods and services along
these routes dates back even further. How East and West Met.
The security of Europe now depends on
significant multilateral cooperation to ensure that any path toward ending
the war achieves the best possible result for Ukraine. But as attention
shifts to negotiations, U.S. and European military support must not wane,
for although a successful outcome can be achieved only through diplomacy,
what is diplomatically possible will always depend on the military
realities on the ground. Ukraine Must Turn the Tide Before It Can Negotiate.
Mick Mulroy, former deputy assistant
secretary of defense for the Middle East, warned that "the future
coordination between the US and Israel could be challenged" if the
leak is confirmed. He emphasized that trust is crucial to the relationship.
The Pentagon has stated it is looking into the leak reports. Documents Suggesting
Britain Was Involved in Israel's 'Deadly Plot' to Strike Iran.
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Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi
traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday for talks that were expected to cover
efforts to end fighting between the Israeli military and Iran-backed groups
in Gaza and Lebanon.
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Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) reported that
one of its flights made an emergency landing after a mouse was discovered
in a passenger's in-flight meal.
Underneath People stand near a pit after
Lebanese soldiers destroyed a communication device in a Beirut parking lot:
Hezbollah's Ibrahim Akil, together
with other senior figures listed below. killed in an Israeli airstrike
was one of the Lebanese militant group’s top military officials, in charge
of its elite forces, and had been on Washington’s wanted list for years.
Rather than bemoaning the emergence of the BRICS, the West should
court those member states that have a stake in making sure that the
grouping does not become an overtly anti-Western outfit intent on
undermining the global order. The
Battle For The BRICS.
Curiosity about the Chinese system does not mean that states can or
will emulate it; China’s particular blend of a strong ruling party and
elements of a capitalist market economy would be difficult to replicate
elsewhere - China’s Soft Sell Of
Autocracy.
Whether the next phase in Ukraine’s military campaign leads to a
strong position at the negotiating table with Putin or a war stuck in
grinding attrition - or even dangerous escalation - may ultimately depend
on American voters’ choice in November. What
the U.S. Election Means For Ukraine.
Iran’s Dilemma: How to Preserve Its Proxies and Avoid Full-Scale War
The rocket threat from Gaza led Israel to invest heavily in its
“Iron Dome” defense system. It has also increasingly fortified the physical
cordon around the Gaza Strip, including building underground barricades to
prevent militants from tunneling underneath, which was nonetheless breached
in the latest attacks. How It Came To The Gaza War.
The reason for Israel to strike Beirut was to kill Hassan Nasrallah who ordered
strikes on Israel.
After a decade in which populism has surged all over the world, it
has become clear how easy it is for political leaders to undermine
democratic norms in service of their pursuits of power, especially during
large-scale wars. Democracy must always be defensive, but first, it must be
built. Israel must end the war and start building. The Fight For A New Israel.
Lebanon blocks Iranian plane from entering airspace after Israeli threats. Israel is on the brink of ground
invasion.
Although Israel and Egypt disagree about how extensive the tunnels
between Gaza and Egypt are, it is undeniable that Hamas has smuggled
weapons through this route. Closer cooperation between the United States,
Egypt, and Israel on shutting down those networks and better policing of
Gaza’s Mediterranean coastline must be part of this equation. Egypt should
also join Qatar in threatening to deny Hamas officials access to, and expel
them from, their territory. Middle East Shuttle Diplomacy Should Be Backed by Meaningful
Pressure.
Israel launched rare airstrikes in the center of Beirut early today (Monday),
escalating the conflict with Hezbollah. Days after killing Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah, the Israeli military said an airstrike in southern
Lebanon had killed the leader of Hamas in the country. Israel also
conducted strikes overnight against Houthi
targets in Yemen.
Reacting to the series of attacks on Monday, Hezbollah’s deputy
secretary-general, Naim Qassem, said the group was prepared to repel an Israeli ground operation. Lebanon’s prime
minister, however, cautioned that Israel’s attacks could create more than 1
million refugees and provoke the worst refugee
crisis in the
country’s history. Warning that Israel is waging war on seven fronts,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country was changing
the regional balance of power.
US Secretary of Defence warns of ‘serious consequences’ for Iran if
it attacks Israel or exploits tensions, and added that he supports
'Israel’s right to defend itself'. The fear
is that this will be a long war. The Israel Defense Forces say a
"limited, localized and targeted" ground operation is underway
against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. In a series of masterstrokes,
Israel upended Hezbollah’s plans. Removing Hassan Nasrallah and senior
commanders of the Iranian-backed group has temporarily deprived it of its
ability to coordinate attacks. At the same time, the IDF’s use of
airstrikes has affected Hezbollah’s arsenal. First images as sun rises over Beirut.
U.S. vice presidential candidates Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Ohio
Sen. J.D. Vance - running mates of Vice President Kamala Harris and former
President Donald Trump, respectively - got their moment in the spotlight on
Tuesday night when they faced off in what is expected to be the final
debate ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November.
Nearly 200 missiles have been launched into Israel from Iran,
according to the Israeli military. The attack is a "significant
escalation", the US has said - with Israel vowing to retaliate and
Iran warning the barrage was "a glimpse of our
capabilities". Upheaval In Lebanon.
Case Study: A year
before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor brought the United States into
World War II, Roosevelt exhorted the country to “build now with all
possible speed every machine, every arsenal, every factory that we need to
manufacture our defense material.” China’s rapid rearmament and the ongoing
wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are signs that the clouds are
darkening. China’s Rapid Rearmament.
One does not have to believe in a “new Middle East” where Israel is
fully accepted, trading, and engaging with its neighbors, to appreciate
that there is a different, realistic path forward. That path is not one of
perpetual occupation and perpetual war. But for now, the latter is the path
Israel is taking. Where Will Israel’s
Multifront War End?
One of Tehran's main
concerns is that a conflict could destabilize the country as the regime
approaches a historic leadership transition. However, if Israel’s
retaliation is extensive, the conflict could spill over into the Gulf and
potentially involve the United States. Iran
Regional Position.
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Israeli Beirut strikes today targeted Hashem Safieddine, a potential
successor to late Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. Israel’s aerial
campaign in Lebanon is being conducted at an intensity comparable only to
the first weeks of its bombardment in Gaza last year. Is Nasrallah's Successor Hashem Safieddine
Eliminated In Israeli Strikes?
China’s defense-based relationship with Russia looks likely to
continue, and as it does, it risks conflict even with its regional allies.
Earlier this week, Vietnam criticized an attack by Chinese law enforcement
forces on Vietnamese fishermen near a disputed island, while Malaysia has
increased drilling operations in a disputed area. The South China Sea
Dispute.
Iran's Khamenei gives a rare public sermon as Israel weighs
counterstrike on Iran, he occasionally grasped the barrel of a rifle that
stood to his left.
Rather than looking at the deeper meaning of October 7 - and
realizing the unsustainability of the antebellum status quo, acknowledging
the self-delusion involved in the effort to “manage” the Palestinian issue
while riding the wave of economic growth, and appreciating the perilousness
of pretending the Palestinians don’t exist, Israelis are being led to
accept deeper institutionalized apartheid in the West Bank, permanent
occupation in Gaza and perhaps south Lebanon, and growing autocracy and
theocracy at home. Sadly, after a year of war, the long-term threats to
Israel’s democracy and liberal values have only become graver. Israel’s Paradox Of Defeat.
As Israel bombs Hezbollah intelligence HQ in Beirut, Iran’s supreme
leader Khamenei warns of confrontation.
On Saturday Hamas claimed responsibility for the shooting attack in
Israel which killed 7, and injured 16. The attack in Tel Aviv took place
just ahead of ballistic missile bombardment by Iran which shook the country
as more than 200 missiles were Fired
By Tehran Toward Israel.
Top US general in the Mideast arrives in Israel,
as IDF preps response to Iranian attack Army strikes Hezbollah sites in
Beirut. This while rallies in Israel urge the release of Israeli hostages
are held nationwide, nearly a year after Oct. 7.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issues a
video statement marking a year since Hamas’s October 7, 2023, terror
onslaught in southern Israel, saying the “horrific” attack “scarred
souls.” Guterres also once again demands the unconditional release of
all hostages.
The
Year 2024 Was A Record-Breaking One, But Not In A Good Way.
The successor to the eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem
Safieddine, in turn was also killed during a recent Israeli attack on
Beirut (Lebanon).
Qatari officials
told the families of the Israeli hostages that Yahya Sinwar
the leader of Hamas, had surrounded himself with hostages, in the headquarters of his tunnel system. From the outset,
“the Gaza war” was a misnomer. Ever since Hamas’s heinous October 7 attack
one year ago, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists, in what
has already become one of the longest wars since Israel’s founding.
A new assessment by the Department of Homeland
Security warns of possible threats from violent extremists driven by
the heated political environment in the US as well as foreign and domestic
threats from terrorist groups and others inspired by conflicts abroad.
The Why And How As Described In The
Report.
Russia is already
engaged in a major conflict, but the northward shift of the Israeli-Arab
war may lead Moscow to take steps it hadn’t anticipated. It’s unlikely,
certainly, but the U.S.-Soviet alliance in World War II was also unlikely. Code Red Time In
The Middle East.
On Monday 7 October Israel established a new
closed military zone along its border with Lebanon.
On 9 October Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin will
meet with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, at the
Pentagon on Wednesday as the U.S. ally mulls how to respond to last week’s
Iranian attack.
Washington Worries The Israelis Will Bomb Iran's
Nuclear Sites. Can They?
It seems unlikely that
Israel will strike Iran's facilities in its next round of retaliation,
officials said, or that it could prevail without America's help.
A woman breaks down at the memorial to Yulia Waxer
Daunov as family members and friends of the lost and kidnapped gather at
the site of the Nova Festival to mark the first anniversary of the attacks
by Hamas, in Re'im, Israel, on October 7. Israel's
Strikes Are Shifting The Power Balance In The Middle East.
Fighting In
Southern Lebanon Including Other Current Developments.
- It does show that the White House etc. does
care, for example, an American father of Hamas hostage Itay Chen pushes the
US, and Israel on ‘Plan B’ as negotiations falter Chen, a New York
City native, said he and his wife have been given "unprecedented"
access to the White House, the CIA, and other top agencies throughout
the last year to discuss ongoing strategies to try and get the hostages out of
Gaza. Chen met with national security adviser Jake Sullivan a dozen
times, as well as CIA Director William Burns and Treasury Secretary Janet
Yellen, they also held a weekly call with the White House.
The Israeli military
has claimed that it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters,
Suhail Hussein Husseini, in “the area of Beirut.” Israel’s military
also said it has expanded its “limited,
localized, targeted operations” into southwestern Lebanon.
The Hezbollah terror group has dug a
network of tunnels hundreds of kilometers long from Beirut to southern
Lebanon. The purpose of the additional network is reportedly to enable
the swift and covert movement of forces during a war against Israel.
Israel’s
Invasion of Lebanon: A diplomatic push to avert a broader war in Lebanon fell apart
after Israel killed Hezbollah’s leader.
Security experts have said that a
political deal is needed to restore calm.
The
Limits of U.S. Influence: In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7,
President Biden stepped in
to support Israel, counsel moderation
and seek a lasting peace.
Behind
the War of Words: When President Emmanuel Macron of France said over the weekend that
countries should stop supplying Israel with weapons if they want a
cease-fire, the reaction from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel
was swift and
scathing.
A
Pro-Palestinian Protest in London: The U.S. ambassador Jane Hartley was en route to the dedication of
a climate-themed mural in London by Shepard Fairey, who created the iconic
Obama ‘Hope’ poster. But then a
protest began.
Selling Weapons to the Houthis: The
Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout, who was freed in a prisoner exchange with
the United States, is negotiating
with the militant group in Yemen.
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To win a long-term, intensive multifront
war, Israel would have to increase defense budgets; open new production
lines for munitions; harden ist critical national infrastructure, such as
energy and communication; and expand the IDF’s pool of recruitment to
additional parts of Israeli society. Most critically, however, it will have
to resolve the country’s political crisis, which has undermined
ist resilience, encouraged ist enemies, and prevented Israel from
developing the broader strategy it needs. The war’s most vital front is the
eighth one: the home front. Israel And The
Coming Long War.
The
United States no longer enjoys primacy in Asia. But an effort to restore
this primacy would be seen by many Asian countries as disastrously
revisionist. Asia Has No Hegemon.
Supreme Court leak exposes
(pro-Trump) chief justice meddling in Trump's cases
Much of the U.S. public and
policy conversation is consumed by how to counter China and defend American
workers, infrastructure, technology, and intellectual property against
foreign threats. This focus downplays the domestic harms that measures
ostensibly aimed at strengthening U.S. national security can have on the
health and vibrancy of the United States democracy, society, and innovation
ecosystem. The Case Against The China
Consensus.
Countries worldwide need policies that
encourage private competition by supporting young people and startups
rather than protecting aging incumbents - oligopolies, billionaires, and
tycoons who now dominate the American system. Restoring faith in capitalism
will require learning from countries where the system still works for
ordinary people. Switzerland, The US,
Taiwan, And Vietnam.
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On 17 and then again on 18
September Israel decided to blow up the pager devices carried by
Hezbollah members in Lebanon and Syria on Tuesday out of concern its secret
operation might have been discovered intending it to be the opening blow in
an all-out war to try to cripple Hezbollah. The
Israeli government did not tamper with the Hezbollah devices that exploded,
defense and intelligence officials say. It manufactured them as part of an
elaborate ruse. The Question Is Why Now.
The world’s attention understandably
remains focused on achieving a ceasefire that can end the killing and
destruction in Gaza, bring hostages and prisoners home, and reduce the
chance of a bigger, regional war. However, to succeed at all these aims,
the states involved must be guided by a vision of the future that is clear,
credible, and fair. A Two-State Solution
That Can Work.
The United States and its allies are
facing a crisis of deterrence. China is menacing Philippine vessels in the
South China Sea and possibly readying its military for an invasion of
Taiwan. But if the overriding goal is to avoid being bogged down in
defending U.S. interests and thwarting aggression in the region Washington
must recognize that deterrence demands accepting uncomfortable risks. How To Adapt An Old Theory To New Realities.
Three Americans were arrested in
Venezuela over a plot to kill President Nicolás Maduro and
destabilize the country. The Terrorist Plot.
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With more wealth sloshing around the Chinese economy,
corruption has been on the rise in recent decades. But until now, no one
has studied empirically the characteristics of the people whom the CCDI has
found guilty of corruption nor tried to establish empirically the extent to
which corruption has contributed to inequality. How Corruption
Fuels Inequality In China.
Having long underestimated the far right, European
foreign policy elites are slowly awakening to how it influences the
EU. However, because they idealized the EU and imagined the far right
as an alien entity, they misunderstood the relationship between the
two. Europe Takes A Trumpian Turn.
Turkey's NATO membership comes under scrutiny
because it plays an anti-NATO role. Following this, Erdoğan says he wants
Ankara to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meaning China.
Findings published in the recent journal Science
state that humans could have crossed from Asia into
the Americas 26,000 to 19,000 years ago, through land connecting what
is now Russia and Alaska, during the last ice age.
In contrast with the China shock that began in the
1990s, when the United States bore the brunt of a huge loss of market share
and jobs in the manufacturing sector, the coming version will hit Europe
hardest. China’s
Double Threat To Europe.
Since the invasion, the United States’ strategy
toward the war in Ukraine has been characterized by wishful thinking. If
only Washington can impose enough costs on Putin, it can convince him to
halt the war in Ukraine. If only it could send enough weapons to Ukraine,
Kyiv could push Russian forces out. After two and a half years, it should
be clear that neither outcome is in the offing. Why Putin Will
Never Give Up In Ukraine.
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Arab identity still exists in a narrow sense as a
reminder of past glory and a common culture. It is a symbolic force that
has no mechanism for collective action across the region. Having lived
under a succession of religious empires, Arabs did not undergo a necessary
transformation to facilitate the triumph of nationalism. In the Arab
region, religion remains the decisive social force and the driver of
collective action. The Myth Of The
Middle East Regional Powers.
The Arab people have criticized the Arab League
since its founding for its persistent failure to shoulder its professed
responsibilities. The organization no longer has a political role and has
devolved into a diplomatic forum that avoids action on critical issues. Why The Arab League Failed.
Trump describes an America in decline, the
laughingstock of the world. According to Trump, Putin’s Russia at least has
some of the dignity strength, and self-respect that a great nation
deserves. The Autocratic Allure.
Two posters disseminated by Hamas today vowing to
blow up Israeli buses:
Ukraine’s Zelensky says incursion into Russia is
part of a plan to end war, this is where Putin threatens WWIII.
Archaeologists discovered the remains of a
7,000-year-old road of an ancient city known as Soline which once connected
the ancient city to the mainland.
Although Transjordanians are the Hashemite
monarchy’s traditional power base, their role is weakening. Most are poor
and susceptible to radical Islamic movements. Bedouins in southern Jordan
are more likely to side with the Saudis than live in poverty. Jordan’s Uncertain
Future.
Poverty in Lebanon has more than tripled over the
past decade reaching 44% of the total population, according to a new World
Bank report released today. Based on a recent household survey covering the
five governorates of Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon, and most of Mount
Lebanon, the report finds that 1 out of every 3 Lebanese in these areas was
poverty-stricken in 2022, highlighting the critical need to strengthen
social safety nets and create jobs to help alleviate poverty and address
widening inequality. Lebanon’s Place In The Middle East.
Some Arabs accuse Qatar of enforcing Washington's
Middle East policy. In contrast, others accuse it of supporting terrorism,
providing moral and financial support to Hezbollah and Hamas, and allying
with Iran and Turkey - Qatar's Enigmatic Foreign Policy.
The situation in the West Bank is likely to
deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by extension, Saudi
Arabia, which shares a long border with its neighboring kingdom. Meanwhile,
the PA could break down, and if it does, it bodes ill for both Palestinian
territories. The
New Imbalance of Power In The Middle East.
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The situation in the West Bank is likely to
deteriorate. Its destabilization will harm Jordan and, by
extension, Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with its
neighboring kingdom. Implications Of The
War’s Spread To The West Bank.
The Palestinians must look forward to a
successor who can finally overcome the tensions that have paralyzed Abbas’s
leadership from the outset. Abbas’s successor will have to resolve this
dilemma by unifying the fractured Palestinian polity, including
incorporating Hamas into formal political structures, such as the
PLO. The Fall Of Mahmoud Abbas.
A Split in the Cabinet. Israeli Defense Minister
Yoav Gallant reportedly presented a plan to the security Cabinet calling
for a cease-fire with Hamas in exchange for the release of hostages.
Gallant warned that if no cease-fire agreement were reached, Israel could
see an escalation into a multifront war, with potentially dire
consequences. Meanwhile, the security Cabinet approved Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to maintain a military presence in the
Philadelphi Corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border as part of a cease-fire
deal. Gallant voted against the proposed arrangement, while the national
security minister abstained.
In recent years, the Arabian Peninsula has been
home to a riff among Gulf countries, civil war, and the emergence of Saudi
Arabia and UAE as influential regional actors. For The UAE, Change Is An Existential Threat.
 
Cambodia celebrated the return of 70 stolen Khmer
ancient artifacts to the Southeast Asian nation from abroad.
The day Michael Chakma was forcefully bundled into
a car and blindfolded by a group of burly men in April 2019 in Dhaka, he
thought it was the end. Michael Chakma, a Bangladeshi Indigenous
people's rights activist who was abducted and imprisoned five years ago,
was found alive.
At various times in modern history, Turkey, Iran,
and Egypt have presented themselves as regional powers in the Middle East,
but they are not strong enough nations to avoid the political and military
influence of more powerful countries. The Myth Of The
Middle East Regional Powers.
Egypt has recently come into the spotlight again
because of the significant Gaza-Egypt border. Whereby seeing it as a
whole Egypt’s history and geographic isolation have led many Egyptians
to accept the country’s despotic leadership, believing that better days are
ahead. But Egyptian society can flourish under the management of a bold
leader – which it hasn’t had in decades. Egypt
And The Country’s Historic Role In The Muslim World.
Since 2023, Washington has been out of ideas for
how to successfully end the war on terms favorable to Ukraine. Kyiv,
meanwhile, has been focused on stabilizing the frontline, but equally Worried About The Prevailing Gloomy Narrative And The
Sense That Ukraine Is Losing The War.
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If China truly wants to eclipse the United States
as the world’s most dominant country, it will need to be able to coerce
Japan and the Philippines and project power worldwide. It will need to
control, or at least contest, the global commons. China probably believes
that the absorption of Taiwan is the necessary first step. Yet when push
comes to shove, it may decide otherwise. The Taiwan Fallacy.
Vladimir Putin was seen embracing a convicted
killer who could know some of the leader’s most dangerous secrets. Russian
state assassin Vadim Krasikov was released from a German prison as part of
a prisoner exchange with the West. The 58-year-old was crucial to the deal
to free Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, falsely accused of
spying by Moscow. When the newly released Russians landed on home soil,
Krasikov was the first off the plane and was met by Putin on a
specially-lain red carpet. How
Russia’s Growing Squad Of Saboteurs And Assassins Threatens The West.
Iran Is Concerned Because Israel Has Jericho
Missiles Armed with Nuclear Weapons.
The United States warned Iran that its government
and economy could suffer if Tehran were to launch a major assault on
Israel. Last Friday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered more
warships and aircraft to deploy to the Middle East to help defend Israel,
with F-22 fighters arriving at a base in the region on Thursday. Mediators Push ‘Final’ Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire
Proposal.
As Ukraine forces advance into Russia Chinese
warships are spotted in UK waters. HMS Richmond kept a "close
watch" on the Chinese Navy task group as it passed the UK twice in
three weeks.
Bangladesh’s interim government expresses ‘grave
concern’ about attacks on religious minorities.
Israel does face real and dangerous enemies,
which, like Hamas, are guilty of human rights abuses. But the trajectory
Israel is on is not a winning one. On its current course, the state may
morph into something that would destroy the humanist Jewish vision that
inspired many of its founders and supporters around the world. It is not
too late for Israel to save itself from its demise and find another way
forward. The Undoing Of Israel.
The 12 medals that Chinese swimmers won in Paris
will forever be tainted. Systemic doping among Chinese swimmers is to
be investigated.
Many have concluded that the West has no stomach
for conflict like Ukraine and will grow tired of supporting democracies
facing an invading force if the economic costs are high. This conclusion is
often overstated and probably underestimates American resolve. China Is In Denial About The War In Ukraine.
With Iran planning to attack Israel the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered a submarine
armed with guided ballistic missiles to be sent to the Middle East.
Hegra, a thriving international trade hub in the
first century AD, fell into a steady decline after it was annexed by the
Roman Empire in 106 AD.
In American politics, labeling something a matter
of “national security” automatically elevates its importance. In the
language of foreign policy observers, national security questions, such as
regulating weapons of mass destruction, are matters of “high politics,”
whereas other issues, such as human rights, are “low politics.” How Everything Became National Security.
High-wire diplomacy on possible Iran retaliation
in the Israel-Hamas war draws in the world.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iran's Supreme
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a restrained response to Israel's
suspected killing of the leader of Hamas, advising against attacks on
Israeli civilians, two senior Iranian sources said. The message, according
to the sources, was delivered on Monday by Sergei Shoigu, a senior ally of
the Kremlin leader, in meetings with top Iranian officials as the Islamic
Republic weighs its response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. Putin's Political Regime.
From Northern Ireland to Syria, the
conditions that foment conflict are predictable, and there are signs that
those conditions are growing increasingly visible in the United States.
The high- and middle-income world needs to start
devoting the necessary resources to developing better vaccines, treatments,
and other countermeasures immediately. Humanity will not get ahead of a
pandemic-causing virus without such commitment. The World Is Not Ready For The Next Pandemic.
France, among others, is involved in multilateral
diplomacy to prevent Iran from attacking Israel, and mediators are set
to hold new Gaza cease-fire talks today at 07:44.
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It is possible to imagine an Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps that, like Egypt’s military, becomes
beholden to the status quo rather than regional upheaval. Outsiders often
assume that because Iran’s rulers are hostile, they must be irrational, but
the record suggests otherwise. A clear-eyed assessment of what the IRGC’s
leaders genuinely fear and what they are willing to live with can
illuminate pathways to reducing tensions. The
Indomitable IRGC.
French and British foreign ministers visited
Israel amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. French Foreign Minister
Stephane Sejourne refused to discuss Israel's response to a potential
Iranian attack, calling it 'inappropriate'. Sejourne said, "Diplomacy
must work now, diplomatic discussions must work now, and so we are working
to prevent Iranian retaliation."
Through much of the past two and a half years of
fighting in Ukraine, a popular view of Russian strategy has been that Putin
is seeking to outlast his adversary by simply exhausting Ukraine and its
Western partners. But Russia itself is not immune to exhaustion. For Kyiv,
forcing Russia to burn through as many of its military resources as
possible has become a way to hinder Putin’s goal of adapting the Russian
economy to a state of perpetual war. Ukraine On The
Offensive.
Deep in the Amazon rainforest lives a community
whose hearts age more slowly:
A 'Stonehenge' was discovered in a US lake that's
5,000 years older than the British landmark. Even the
initial Stonehenge remains one of these great mysteries, with experts
around the world divided over why exactly the prehistoric monument was built. We do know that Stonehenge’s altar stone came from
mainland Scotland or Orkney.
When some of the leading thinkers of the era
declare that the AI revolution will be more significant than earlier
industrial revolutions, it is easy to get caught up in their excitement.
Many people in every generation wind up believing that their lives coincide
with a uniquely important period in history. But the present moment might
not be so unprecedented. The Next China Shock.
Gaza is militarily isolated, and the rhetorical
support it used to get from the Arab world is no longer a given. This
creates psychological questions, and psychology is essential to warfare.
The Israelis are threatening to destroy Gaza’s leadership and to change the
reality of Gaza. Ultimately, this requires occupation to work. The Israeli
response must appear disproportionate, and the lack of automatic support
disheartening. The Arab-Israeli Conflict
Today.
Scientists discovered the Shroud of Turin dates
back to when Jesus was alive using X-ray techniques.
If Israel cannot fully remove Hamas from power,
demilitarize the strip, and back a new authority in Gaza, then Hamas will
likely reconstitute itself and fight another day. That result would be no
victory for Israel or the region. Israel must therefore take advantage of
the present moment when it has the upper hand and Hamas is on the run. Lasting Victory Against Hamas
Will Require Installing New Leadership in Gaza.
As the Indian prime minister meets Ukraine’s
president on Friday, it marks a departure in New Delhi’s foreign policy.
Charlie the Elephant (the last elephant in
S.A.) is finaly freed after 40 years in a South African zoo captivity.
AI recreates the real 'face of Jesus' from
contemporary Shroud.
The key to Arab political transformation lies in
religious reform. Nineteenth-century religious reformers such as Muhammad
Abdu and Jamal al-Din al-Afghani realized the need to make Islam compatible
with modernity. However European colonialism arrested the process of reform
and ushered in Salafism, which served as the precursor to Islamic
fundamentalism. The Birth And
Development Of The Middle East Part One.
The Middle East Part One. The concept of
power sharing has no roots in the Middle East. There is no evidence to
suggest that the region’s countries take the minority question seriously.
Ruling elites aim to subdue minorities and silence their demands rather
than include them in the political process. Arabs did not undergo a
necessary transformation to facilitate the triumph of nationalism. In the
Arab region, religion remains the decisive social force and the driver of
collective action. Myth Of The Middle
East Regional Power.
The region is far from ready for successful
uprisings, and political communities with a sense of national vision have
yet to emerge. Resolution of the region’s outstanding interstate problems,
such as the Kurdish and Palestinian questions, must precede any domestic
change. Why Uprisings In The Middle
East Fail.
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As China continues to prioritize domestic
development and security, it will likely strive to defend its economic and
governance models while preserving space for global trade and investment.
For a long time to come, U.S.-Chinese relations seem unlikely to return to
the deep exchanges and cooperation that occurred at the beginning of the
twenty-first century. Yet if a rapprochement is out of the question, China
and the United States can still maintain stability and avoid catastrophe,
whoever is in the Oval Office. Why
Chinese Strategists See Little Difference Between Then And Now.
While the Oct. 7 attack appeared to unite
Israelis, the ongoing war, the agonizing over the hostage ordeal, and
frustrations with the government have created a domestic crisis that might
be deeper than any Israel has experienced since its founding. Fading Chances Of Getting Hostages Back.
Hamas has named Yahya Sinwar as the new head of
its political bureau, elevating the hardline militant to the group’s top
post after the assassination in Tehran of its previous political leader.
If Israel still believes that integrating itself
more fully into the Middle East by striking normalization deals with its
Arab neighbors will marginalize Iranian-backed extremist groups and reduce
the hostility toward the country, it must come to terms with the fact that
its conflict with the Palestinians constitutes its most fundamental
existential threat. The Time Is
Right For An Israeli-Saudi Deal.
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NATO’s primary focus remains on Euro-Atlantic
security, with the Indo-Pacific receiving relatively less attention.
Consequently, while NATO will enhance its activities and partnerships in
the region, it will not fully expand its mandate to Asia. This suggests
that the United States and its Pacific allies should continue to expand
initiatives like AUKUS and the Quad to address the China issue
specifically. NATO’s Pivot Toward Asia.
The Arab Quint will expect the United States to pressure
Netanyahu, and that will be necessary. But the irony is that the more
Washington can point to in terms of Arab and Palestinian moves toward a
deal, the greater leverage Biden will have over Netanyahu. Why The Time Is Right For An Israeli-Saudi Deal.
Bangladesh’s army, which has largely stayed out of
politics since 2008, is now overseeing the formation of the interim
government. Emboldened Islamist extremists, exploiting the unrest, staged
attacks against the Hindu community this week. Democracy in Bangladesh may
be tough to resuscitate. Hasina’s
Troubled Legacy.
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus's oath as
Bangladesh's interim government chief today:
Over the coming months, as Russian momentum wanes,
Ukraine will be preparing, reconstituting, and watching for chances.
Success is never certain in war, but Ukraine will be better placed in 2025
than it has been this year to liberate territory and to convince Russia
that the cost of the war is not worthwhile. How Kyiv Can Capitalize On Russia’s Waning
Momentum.
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One may have viewed smaller South Asian countries
as irrelevant or at best marginal to their wider interests, they should
understand that the likes of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are enmeshed in the
broad geopolitical competition. Encouraging the participation of these
smaller countries in larger frameworks and coalitions, such as the Quad,
will help rein in Chinese influence and give these countries alternatives
to the political and economic support offered by China. The End Of South Asia.
The United States’ goal should be to reframe the
competition with China as a potentially positive-sum endeavor, with the two
countries working together to support nonproliferation. Although there is
no guarantee of success, starting a new U.S.-Chinese nuclear dialogue may
ultimately protect East Asia from greater nuclearization. But first,
Washington may have to play hardball. China’s
Dangerous Nuclear Push.
Driving U.S. innovation should be Washington’s top
priority when competing with Beijing. Given China’s size, economic heft,
and scientific sophistication, the U.S. government has only limited
capacity to obstruct its rival’s technological development. The United
States should, instead, focus its energies on its innovative prowess and
ability to stay at the head of the pack on AI and the next generation of
critical technologies. The Limits Of
The China Chip Ban.
First map of Earth's lost continent has been published
Without Ukraine, Russia is only an Asian power,
swiftly losing ground to China. Kyiv cannot change Moscow’s strategic
imperatives with victories on the battlefield, but it can deny Russia
control of its lands. A rapid and significant supply of Western arms would
give Ukraine its best chance to push back Russian forces and create the
space and the time it needs to rebuild, refit, and deter another Russian
advance. The Right Way To Quickly End The
War In Ukraine.
No foreign-policy issue has been as divisive among
Democrats as U.S. President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
As the Democratic Party’s now-presumptive candidate for president, Vice
President Kamala Harris has an opportunity to lay out a different course,
and in doing so reenergize some of the key Democratic constituencies that
have been angered and alienated by Biden’s nearly unconditional support for
Israel’s indiscriminate destruction of Gaza. Harris In Action.
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As negotiations continue, Hezbollah’s best bet is
to refrain from acts that provoke a full-fledged war with Israel. So the
group will likely continue to choose restraint and de-escalation,
especially as Israeli operations in Gaza become less intensive. Why Hezbollah Doesn’t Want A War With Israel.
The Rwandan military has deployed to bilateral and
multilateral missions in the Central African Republic, where they provide a
counterweight to Russian security contractors. They are also at work in
Mozambique, where they help protect a $20 billion gas investment by
TotalEnergies, a large French company. Rwanda sends 5,900 troops to the
UN’s peacekeeping forces, making it the largest African contributor. The Forgotten War In Congo.
Well-prepared Arson attacks on France’s rail
network have taken place in what authorities are calling a "massive
attack to destabilize the railway system," just hours before the 2024
Paris Olympic Games opening ceremony is set to take place. So Who Did It?
 
Paris Olympic
torch.
Eurostar
passengers face further disruption on Sunday
after a series of arson attacks on the French rail network coincided with
the opening weekend of the Olympic Games in Paris.
Large crowds have gathered for the funerals of the
victims of yesterday's rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan
Heights. Twelve children and young adults were killed while
playing football when a rocket hit a football pitch in Majdal Shams. Israel’s Next War.
Although Khamenei has greenlit expanding Iran’s
nuclear program, he is not averse to negotiations over its scope, provided
they reduce sanctions pressure on Iran. A deal that would end Iran’s
nuclear program may not be in the cards, but a pragmatic agreement that
would trade verifiable restrictions on the program in exchange for
meaningful sanctions relief is very much imaginable. A More Normal Iran?
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Although the tougher line with China demonstrated
the United States’ leverage, it was episodic and uncoordinated with allies.
As a result, Beijing was able to cast itself as a more predictable partner
to much of the world, while the supply chain disruptions caused by trade
disputes and decoupling created new inefficiencies - and drove up costs -
in the global economy. Foreign Policy For
The World.
Predictions of the dollar’s demise have greatly
exaggerated the currency’s weakness, a fact made clear by its remarkable
endurance. Analysts have warned for years that the dollar will lose out to
other currencies, and yet none of them has displaced it. Consider the euro,
whose inauguration in 1999 seemed to herald the end of the dollar’s
unrivaled power. The eurozone was, after all, an economic area that stood
toe to toe with the United States in terms of economic and financial market
size. It had an independent central bank, and its members generally
followed the rule of law. Why The Dollar?
A reputation for resolve is one of the hardest
things for leaders or states to control. Any assessment of U.S. adversaries
that does not carefully examine their psychology, the different ways they
come to conclusions about the United States, is doomed to be
inadequate. The Credibility Trap.
The amazing true story of how British intelligence
penetrated and practically operated Nazi Germany's spy network within the
British Isles. Called the Double-Cross System or XX System was a World War
II counter-espionage and deception operation of the British Security
Service (MI5). Nazi agents in Britain – real and false – were captured,
turned themselves in, or simply announced themselves, and were then used by
the British to broadcast mainly disinformation to their Nazi controllers. The Double-Cross System.
Nine months of Israeli air and ground combat
operations in Gaza have not defeated Hamas, nor is Israel close to
vanquishing the terrorist group. On the contrary, according to the measures
that matter, Hamas is stronger today than it was on October 7. Why Israel’s Failing Strategy Makes Its Enemy
Stronger.
Foreign intelligence has always preyed on the
lonely and romantically vulnerable, from the West German women targeted
during the Cold War by East German “Romeo” spies to the French
diplomat who believed that his lover, a Chinese man, was a woman who
had birthed his son. Internet Scams Target
Vulnerable People With Powerful Access.
In a show of force, China has dispatched 66 warplanes
into Taiwanese airspace over the past two days, according to Bloomberg.
Some analysts suggest that China might employ strategies to economically
isolate Taiwan and force it into submission without direct military
confrontation. Will Xi This Time Cross
The Line?
Following Thursday night’s disastrous debate
performance by President Joe Biden, Democrats are in full panic mode,
scrambling to figure out what comes next. Although game-changing moments
are rare in our era of polarized politics, what went down in Atlanta on
June 27 might alter the course of the 2024 campaign. What Comes Next.
Absent high-impact but low-probability events -
such as the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine, the collapse of the Russian
state, or a war over Taiwan - China will probably maneuver within the broad
parameters it has already set out for the relationship. Sometimes Beijing
will suggest a close relationship with Moscow, and sometimes it will imply
a more distant one, modulating its message as the situation demands. Xi Jinping’s Russian Lessons.
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In tandem, the United States and Europe should
tackle the delicate task of rebuilding leverage by gradually increasing
diplomatic and economic pressure on Iran between now and October 2025,
without triggering Iranian nuclear moves that would doom the prospects of
securing a diplomatic agreement. Iran’s
New Nuclear Threat.
Prioritizing Asia is just the first step in
managing competition between the United States and China. The next phase
requires national mobilization. Did America
Wait Too Long To Counter China?
The United States’ Asian allies can better prepare
for a second Trump term by increasing their defense spending; highlighting
their investments in U.S. supply chains, which help create jobs in the
United States; and reiterating why the United States needs to remain a
benevolent regional hegemon. America’s
Asian Partners.
There are times when the United States may
consider it appropriate, or even desirable, to censure China. But if the
type and frequency of its condemnations reach the point of threatening the
CCP’s sense of security, Washington should expect a wolf-warrior reaction.
U.S. policymakers will have to decide whether the costs to diplomatic
channels are worth it. Why Beijing
Embraced Combative Diplomacy.
The notion of an endless war in Ukraine terrifies
Russia’s elite, who still hope that the invasion will conclude. They dream
of returning as quickly as possible to the peaceful time of February 23,
2022. But for now, they are silent. How
Russian Elites Made Peace With The War.
In the moments after President Biden’s halting
debate performance Thursday, Vice President Harris went on a pair of
television networks to praise him. She spent Friday crisscrossing the
western United States, challenging those who worried he seemed old and
ineffective. And she took to social media on his behalf. “In a real leader,
character matters more than style, and Donald Trump simply does not have
the character to be President of the United States,” said one of the vice
president’s posts on X. Will Kamala Harris Be The First Woman To Get
US Presidential Powers?
The Doctrine of Palestine in history would never
have amounted to anything more than an intellectual musing had it not been
for the huge ambitions of Hussein Ibn Ali. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.
In Part One we detailed the fall of the Ottoman
Empire and the Sharif Hussein Arab Revolt. In Part Two the carving up of
the Middle East via the Sykes-Picot Agreement. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.
If UK's Keir Starmer grasps the
truth that his triumph is a function of the United Kingdom’s brokenness, he
will have the courage to begin to fix it. If not, it will remain
dangerously unfixed. And it may indeed become unfixable. The party that has
dominated it for 200 years has imploded. It would be foolish to imagine
that the same thing could not happen to the country. Neither will the
economy rebound without far-reaching changes in the way the country
functions. Why Labour’s Sweeping Victory
May Not Reverse The Country’s Decline.
To deter attacks on NATO members, the alliance
must rapidly reinforce its eastern borders. All three Baltic states now
have conscription, so the number of trained reserves will grow. But their
armed forces now own no battle tanks and no fighter aircraft. At the July
2023 Vilnius summit, NATO leaders agreed to scale up the battlegroups of
roughly 1,000 Western troops stationed in each Baltic state to
“brigade-size units” of more than 3,000 troops each. But they gave no
timeline and promised the increase only “where and when required,” hardly a
reassuring phrase. Why America Is
In Denial Of NATO’s Future.
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Foreign governments and international institutions
must engage with nonstate groups to address acute humanitarian needs and
improve governance. Myanmar’s fragmentation may be unavoidable, but it does
not have to be catastrophic for its people. The Situation In Myanmar Today.
Washington shouldn’t be giving Beijing time -
which the Biden administration’s détente-like policy does - to worm its way
out of the economic conundrum it created for itself. Chinese leaders have
long believed that the United States is trying to suppress Chinese economic
growth anyway. The Cold War Between
China, Europe, And The United States.
On June 6, 1944, 150,000 Allied troops landed on
the beaches of Normandy and suffered an astonishingly low rate of
casualties. A stunning military accomplishment, it was also a masterpiece
of trickery. Operation Fortitude, which protected and enabled the invasion,
and the Double Cross system, which specialized in turning German spies into
double agents, The Spy That Defeated the Nazis.
When China overestimated the influence of Jewish
interests in U.S. politics during World War II, it wasted valuable time and
a few stacks of paper. But with the Chinese government now trying to
position itself as the world’s alternative superpower, misreading the
politics of Zionism could be far more costly. When Israel Was In China.
After decades of struggling with Hamas and months
of fighting a massive, brutal war against it, Israel still seems unlikely
to defeat the group. But it can still win, by helping Hamas defeat itself. How To Deal With Hamas.
Deglobalization
offers analysts a simple story to tell about changes to the global economy.
But the reality is more complex: put plainly, it is impossible for a global
economy characterized by a large U.S. deficit on one side and a large
Chinese surplus on the other to truly fragment. The world needs to have a
healthy debate about the drawbacks and benefits of economic integration.
But that debate must start from a frank acknowledgment that many
characteristics of the contemporary global economy still push toward more,
not less, integration and that addressing these factors will have real
costs. Deglobalization.
China does not
want to divert resources from its primary security concern in the east, the
near seas in the Pacific, to its western front with India. Modi does not
want to get caught in a prolonged crisis with a more powerful neighbor that
would impede his domestic and global ambitions. Returning stability to the
border between China and India falls short of rapprochement, but it would
be a far better outcome than overt war. Modi’s Tough Stance Could Invite, Not Deter,
Chinese.
Not everything is
going Putin’s way. Russia’s military withdrawal from Azerbaijan is a sign
of weakness. So, too, arguably, is Armenia’s pivot to the West and the
Georgian public’s mass resistance to what the opposition labels the
“Russian law.” But if Russia looks weaker in the region, the West does not
look stronger. Russia’s Quest For A
Gateway To Iran And The Middle East.
Climate extremes
will batter and test it, as they already have. But building more resilient
election infrastructure and introducing greater flexibility in how, when,
and where people register and vote can limit the damage. Doing so will be
increasingly essential on a rapidly warming planet. Every voter should have
the ability to cast a vote that gets counted - no matter the weather. Sixty-Eight Countries Will Hold Elections.
There will be no return to the Cold War
transatlantic relationship, but Erdogan’s Turkey has not yet crossed over
to the Chinese-Russian orbit, and there is an opening for Turkey to tilt
back toward the West if its partners make the advantages of cooperation
clear. Erdogan’s Tumultuous Leadership.
The odds are that Modi and the BJP - still
massively popular - will recover. But given the challenges of leading a
coalition government and facing a stronger opposition, Modi will more
frequently find himself on the back foot. Bharatiya
Janata Party Suffer A Setback.
Zelenskyy is seen here when a WWII veteran wants
to kiss his hand. Zelenskyy just before it could happen embraces the
veteran:
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Do democracies find retaining legitimacy more
difficult than democracies? It would be reassuring to think so, were it not
for the particular questions lodged, like malevolent matryoshka dolls,
within this larger one. The Hidden Driver Of Modern
History.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue security conference in
Singapore Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told the same conference that the
Philippines will defend its rights in the disputed waters, citing a
landmark and binding 2016 arbitration ruling from The Hague, and
he warned that any Chinese actions that lead to the death of a Filipino
could trigger the mutual defense pact with the United States. The China Sea Syndrome.
The Democratic Party of Japan came into power
promising a closer relationship with China and a Japanese foreign policy
that was more oriented toward the country’s Asian neighbors. Ozawa’s
mega-junket certainly seems like a pretty big statement to that end. To China And South
Korea.
Israel was able to release four hostages from
Hamas. World leaders, including US President Joe Biden, France's
Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have welcomed the news
of the hostage rescue.120 hostages that are still held by Hamas.
The goal for those who support Ukraine should be
twofold: to bring about that cease-fire as quickly as possible with as much
territory as possible on Ukraine’s side of the line. Achieving this outcome
requires changing Russian expectations about the West’s staying power.
Ukraine can win only when Russian leaders worry about how the war will
progress in the coming years. To Sow That Fear In Moscow.
The Berlin Wall’s
fall was a unique moment in geopolitical history, ushering in an era of
unipolarity as the United States became the world’s hegemon. But it also
heralded an unprecedented economic phenomenon: convergence. Requiem For Hyperglobalization.
Leaders can learn from the past in both positive
and negative ways, about what to do and what not to do. But they have to
learn the big lessons first, and the most important of all is how to avoid
horrendous wars that reduce generations of achievements to rubble. Will America And
China Heed The Warnings.
Only with complete access to intelligence
information could one form a fully independent view of the threat. But the
FBI director’s and the CENTCOM commander’s statements almost certainly
reflect the classified intelligence they are reading and the law enforcement
and military operations in which their organizations are involved. Their Words
Should Be Taken Seriously.
Since late 2023, the Houthis in Yemen have posed
an extraordinary challenge to global shipping. As a result of the
Iranian-backed group’s relentless attacks on commercial vessels in the Red
Sea. Beijing needs a safe Red Sea, but wants Washington to deliver it. The Red Sea.
Even with the media largely on his side, Modi
crashed into a newly skeptical electorate. If he is to regain their
confidence, his self-aggrandizement will have to give way to humility,
openness, and less control. This could well be a tall order for a leader so
used to thinking of himself as ten feet tall. How Indian Voters Constrained Modi.
The pact is one of at least 31 bilateral security
agreements that various countries have signed or are slated to sign with
Ukraine in the coming months. Western officials tout these agreements as a
sign of their countries’ enduring commitment to help Ukraine in its war
against Russia, but Ukraine’s strongest supporters say those bilateral
arrangements can’t replace Kyiv’s ultimate goal of joining NATO. Agreement Not Be A Formal Binding.
Is Peace Still
Attainable? Experts once thought globalization would ensure peace. Now,
they’re looking elsewhere. For example, the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine
can only end with deals that don’t satisfy anyone completely.
Underneath:
Israeli and Palestinian women’s organizations have a rich history of
political engagement. Members of Women Wage Peace gather at the Jerusalem
promenade overlooking the Old City, reciting a common secular prayer as
they call on Israeli and Palestinian leaders to come together in dialogue:
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The Russian leadership must understand that its
leverage over Kyiv will continue to shrink as Ukraine’s capabilities grow,
backed by an unshakeable Western commitment to the country’s long-term
security. How To Create A Durable
Peace In Europe.
If the core values of the United States and Israel
diverge further, the next generation of leaders in both places may no
longer see each other as kindred spirits. In that case, shared strategic
interests might ensure that the countries remain allies, but they might
cease to have the “special relationship” they have counted on in the
past. Can America’s Special Relationship
With Israel Survive?
Targeted labor market initiatives can help improve
gender equality, offset the economic impact of aging populations, raise
employment levels, and reduce labor shortages. Improving access to public
services will not just help address the logistical needs of rural dwellers
but also make them feel better recognized by the state and their fellow
citizens who live in cities. Most importantly, bridging the rural-urban
divide in a meaningful way will help lower the tensions now roiling many
societies in the West. The Farmer Who Feel The
Heat First.
If the United States and Israel truly believe
there is no legal basis for the charges, they should call the ICC
prosecutor’s bluff. But if Israel will not take advantage of the one
surefire way to end the proceedings before they go any further, the United
States should not shred its credibility simply to protect the men who have
ignored every warning. Where The Case Stands Now.
Whoever becomes president will be a loyal insider.
He will be as politically similar to Raisi as one can be, Raisi’s successor
could even explicitly claim the latest president’s mantle. After all, in
the official narrative of the Islamic Republic, Raisi will be remembered
for putting Iran on the right path after a series of presidents who
challenged the supreme leader’s vision. Whoever
Succeeds Him Won’t Change Course.
Major Article: The rifts Gaza has aggravated in American society over the entire
Israel-Palestine question will no longer be so easily shunted aside as a
topic of conversation best avoided. The rifts Gaza has aggravated in
American society over the entire Israel-Palestine question will no longer
be so easily shunted aside as a topic of conversation best avoided. Why It Is Crucial That It Not Be.
Major
Article: Thus far, the US and Israel have
responded to October 7 by doubling down on their demonization of Hamas and
refusal to engage it in any political process. This approach considers
repeated massacres (including of Israelis) an acceptable price to pay for maintaining
Israeli rule in the OPT. Southern Gaza City
Of Rafah.
Major
Article: These are not isolated actions but
part of a pattern. They all serve the ultimate goal that the Zionist
movement had set itself from the start: to build a Jewish state on as large
a part of Palestine as possible with as few Arabs within its borders. Consequences Of The Israel/Hamas War Part Two.
Major Article: Yesterday Hamas official Osama Hamdan said that there is no need for new
negotiations with Israel, amid Israeli media reports that there is an
intention to renew Gaza truce talks. Meanwhile, police use water cannons to
disperse demonstrators calling for the release of hostages held in the Gaza
Strip by the Hamas militant group, in Tel Aviv, Israel, Saturday, May 25,
2024. Consequences Of The Israel/Hamas
War.
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Major
Article: When Israel withdrew from Gaza in
2005, it turned the tiny enclave into an open-air prison. Israel’s response
to the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023 - the incessant bombardment of Gaza
by land, sea, and air - turned this open-air prison into an open graveyard,
a pile of rubble, and a Security Council desolate wasteland. The Land That Is Israel.
Major
Article: If, over the past half-century,
Israel and its allies had desisted for but a moment in not merely missing,
but actively spurning and sabotaging prospects for a just resolution to the
Palestine Question, the 2023 massacre of Israeli civilians and incipient
genocide in Gaza need never have happened. Indeed, the Israel-Palestine
conflict would almost certainly have been resolved decades ago. Regional Ties Of Israel.
Understanding South Africa's election’s
consequences will be an exercise in distinguishing the substance from the
surrounding commotion. Coalitions will rise and fall, yet all this
instability will occur inside a framework that promotes long-term stability.
When the ANC loses its historical dominance, South Africa is likely to
continue on the same trajectory it has maintained for the past 30 years. The SA Election For Worse And For Better.
In India, large swaths of public positions and
college slots are reserved for disadvantaged groups.) Voter interviews
suggest that while they still believe in the prime minister and are swayed
by the efficient delivery of benefits, they do worry about joblessness. But
whatever voters decide, India needs both an economic and democratic course
correction, which only a strong opposition, regardless of its identity,
will bring. Modi’s Middling Economy.
Major
Article: After years of violence against the
British and the Jews and following an assassination attempt on the British
inspector general of the Palestine police, the British authorities
officially declared the Arab Higher Committee illegal and the mufti fled
the Palestine mandate for good in 1937. Al-Husseini stopped in Beirut,
Baghdad, and Tehran before arriving and settling in Berlin in 1941. Palestine: A British Dilemma.
Researchers, from the U.S. Geological Survey and
other institutions, likened the process to a "stomp-rocket" toy,
which works by stomping on a gas-filled chamber that propels a rocket into
the air. The findings are published in Nature Geoscience.
The increasingly inescapable lesson of the Islamic
Republic’s relations with Israel and with the wider Jewish community is
that there is too much politics in history and not enough history in
politics. Until that imbalance can be addressed, the opportunities for
meaningful progress are slight. The
Iran-Israel Relationship.
Technological islands of excellence are no
substitute for good macroeconomic governance and well-institutionalized
technology ecosystems that diffuse benefits throughout the economy -
neither of which the Chinese system seems to produce. China's Quest To Innovate.
The leaders of the countries that are the United
States’ friends and allies will be among the very few who can speak
truthfully to Trump. He can shout at them, embarrass them, even threaten
them. But He Cannot Fire Them.
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The silver lining to the crisis in April was that
Washington and Tehran talked behind the scenes throughout the two weeks.
Their communication was key to averting catastrophe. As it charts its next
diplomatic course, the United States should take advantage of that opening
to lower the risk of a larger war. Attacks and counterattacks drastically
changed the strategic landscape in the Middle East. The Region’s Perilous Security Conditions.
A UN Trusteeship for Palestine A Temporary Fix
That Can Lead to an Enduring Peace. How
It Could Be Done.
It may be too late to pull Mexican politics back
from the brink. The government has openly questioned the integrity of the
2024 election and the autonomous electoral authorities organizing it. In
the unlikely event of an opposition victory, López Obrador would probably
reject the results, violence could ensue, and the military’s loyalty would
be put to the test. Mexico On Edge?
There are a few downsides to exploring
negotiations with Pyongyang. But the reality is that North Korea has not
shown much interest in talking since Trump’s 2019 summit ended early
without any agreement. The North Korean leader has even less incentive to
make compromises now than he did then, thanks to the assistance the regime
gets from China and Russia. And even if Kim were interested in making some
kind of deal with the United States, it would make sense for him to first
advance North Korea’s nuclear program as far as possible to increase his
bargaining leverage. The Coming North
Korean Crisis.
Russian President Vladimir Putin concluded
a two-day visit to China on Friday, emphasizing the countries’ burgeoning strategic ties as
well as his relationship with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as they sought to
present an alternative to U.S. global influence.
By voting for a divided government, Taiwan’s
voters have forced leaders in not only Taipei but also Beijing to adapt to
a more nuanced political reality. Chinese President Xi Jinping is impatient
for progress in Taiwan, asserting in speeches that the issue cannot be
handed down indefinitely from one generation to the next. Beijing has
adopted an increasingly aggressive posture toward the island through such
measures as cyberattacks, military patrols, hard-elbowed diplomacy, and
disinformation campaigns. But the split in Taipei lessens the likelihood of
a seismic constitutional or symbolic shift in sovereignty that the CCP
might feel forces its hand to invade. If Lai and his administration
successfully bolster deterrence, he may yet persuade Xi that any attempt to
invade Taiwan runs too big a risk of wrecking the CCP’s other plans for
China’s so-called “great rejuvenation.” Lai Ching-te’s Precarious Balancing Act.
The compromised admirals in charge of Navy
intelligence. How One Man Seduced The
U.S. Navy.
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In a bitter
personal attack, Netanyahu said Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the
International Criminal Court (ICC) was one of the "great antisemites
in modern times." Mr Khan, he said, was like judges in Nazi Germany
who denied Jews basic rights and enabled the Holocaust. His decision to
seek arrest warrants against Israel’s prime minister and defense minister
was "callously pouring gasoline on the fires of antisemitism that are
raging around the world.’ Netanyahu spoke English in the video that was released
by his office. He does that when he wants his message to reach the foreign
audience that matters most to him, in the US.
The men and women of the Special Operations
Executive who lost their lives in occupied Europe are winning recognition
on TV, in books and in commemorative events. Secret Sacrifice: The Agents Who Risked All Behind Nazi Lines.
Despite China’s stringent regulations against
cryptocurrency activities, Chinese traders have continually found
innovative ways to leverage digital currencies. This resilience is evident
in the recent discovery by Chinese police of a $1.9 billion underground
banking system. Crypto In China And Beyond.
Israel war: Gantz demands Gaza day-after plan by
June 8, threatens to resign. Gantz’s Gaza
Plan.
The UN Development Program has described the reconstruction
requirements for Gaza as the most significant since World War II and
estimates that it will cost tens of billions of dollars. This funding will
be possible only through an international, pooled mechanism. The Day After.
Major Article: For nearly a half-century, there
was a single factor, a single raison d’être, at the heart of the entire
Soviet project. But it wasn’t fanning the communist revolution or even
spreading Marxist Leninism itself. Rather, it was - as Sergey Radchenko
argues in To Run the World, his new, more than 600-page doorstopper on the
Soviet leaders’ views during the Cold War - something far simpler, and far
more universal: prestige. To Run The World.
The United States ought to coordinate with
corporations to support Taiwan’s economic buffer, especially those that
ship goods to the island via sea and air. An interagency group from the
Departments of Defense, Homeland Security, and State should establish
channels to assess emerging risks and share early warning indicators with
the leaders of large multinational trading firms, shippers, and
insurers. The Perils Of
The Taiwan Strait.
In this war, resources, funds, and technology all
overwhelmingly favor the West. If they are channeled to Ukraine in
sufficient amounts, including to the country’s defense industry, Kyiv can
win. Russia simply lacks the military power to defeat a Western-backed
Ukraine, and so its only hope lies in manipulating Western concerns. Stop Fearing Victory.
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The only legitimate Palestinian political entity
that is untainted by failure is the state of Palestine. It is waiting in
the wings to assume its place among the nations of the world. The moment is
opportune for Palestinian political leaders, including from Fatah and The Palestinian Option.
Military leaders
must take seriously the challenges posed by civilian efforts to politicize
the US armed forces. Paradoxically, because of their commitment to the
nonpartisan ethic, not to mention the responsibilities of their jobs, many
are unaccustomed to thinking about their role in protecting the institution
from being pulled into partisan politics. The
Politization Of The U.S. Military.
Certainly, the European Union deserves credit as a
first-mover for a comprehensive approach to Internet harms. But for others
who are far behind, a genuine package of reforms must be introduced. At a
minimum, it should include comprehensive privacy regulation that addresses
the industry’s business model by banning its behavioral tracking of users,
marketing of their preferences, and sales to data brokers. The Test.
Certainly the European Union deserves credit as a
first mover for a comprehensive approach to Internet harms. But for others
who are far behind, a genuine package of reforms must be introduced. At a
minimum, it should include comprehensive privacy regulation that addresses
the industry’s business model by banning its behavioral tracking of users,
marketing of their preferences, and sales to data brokers. ByDance and TikTok.
Food can bring about mass civilian deaths and
unthinkable horrors, provoking rightful moral outrage at the prospect of
its use. But unlike nuclear weapons, food weaponization is routinely used
in warfare. And in our globalized world, these tools have become more
dangerous than ever. The Food Weapon.
Very much a topic in the context of the current Israel-Hamas
War, the doctrine of Palestine in history would never have amounted to
anything more than an intellectual musing had it not been for the huge
ambitions of Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931 appointed emir or grand sharif of
Mecca by Sultan Abdul Hamid II in 1908 we proceed. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part One.
If we were to ask the question, ‘On whose side did
the Arabs fight in the First World War?’ Most people who know something
about the war’s history would probably say ‘Britain’s.’ Such a reply would
reflect the orthodox account, emanating from the glorification of ‘Lawrence
of Arabia and the alleged ‘Arab Revolt’ of Sharif Hussein and his
sons. However, in the past decade this orthodox narrative has been
questioned by several historians. The Making
Of The Modern Middle East Part Two.
Top Ukrainian officials openly suggested that a
cascade of Russian defeats might force Russian President Vladimir Putin
from power. These expectations, however, were completely unrealistic.
Russia incurred tens, or even hundreds, of thousands of casualties, but the
country was still much stronger than Ukraine. Its GDP was nine times the
size of its neighbor’s, and its population was over three times as
large. For Israel, it is probably too late to reset expectations,
especially given that it was never the underdog (unlike Ukraine). Israelis
are likely to look back on the war as a costly campaign and a missed
opportunity – and perhaps as a major defeat. Winning The Battle But Losing The War.
Today Bankman-Fried’s 25-year sentence is about
half of the 40 to 50 years prosecutors had sought. Judge Kaplan said he
weighed several factors, including the brazenness of the crimes and
Bankman-Fried’s potential to commit crimes in the future. There was a
risk “that this man will be in a position to do something very bad in the
future,” Kaplan said. “And it’s not a trivial risk,” Kaplan
recommended that the Bureau of Prisons place Bankman-Fried in a
medium-security or lower facility, ideally in the San Francisco area so
that his family may visit. Cryptocurrency
And The Bankman-Fried Case.
NATO’s eastern enlargement, which was one of the
reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine, has only continued. His actions
have made the country’s membership in NATO more likely, not
less. And when Finland joined NATO last April, as a direct result of
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO’s land border with Russia more than
doubled. What NATO Membership Will
Require.
The French government was finally prepared
explicitly to recognize Britain’s special interests in the Arabian
Peninsula, and confirmed its intention ‘not to seek any political influence
in these regions’. The British noted with satisfaction that the French were
‘ready to accept our political supremacy in the Arabian Peninsula, except
the Hedjaz’, which was ‘a point gained’. Especially when one took into
account that regarding the Hijaz, ‘owing to the close connection of the
holy places with Egypt, Aden, and Mesopotamia [there should] be no
difficulty for us in acquiring and eventually asserting a position of
predominance there also’. The Middle East
Gamble.
Chinese officials often say that Beijing does not
deliberately seek a trade surplus. Deliberate or not, China’s trade
imbalances are not sustainable for the rest of the world, and China should
not be surprised if foreign governments start to respond more
aggressively. China’s Economic
Collision Course.
One of the larger ironies in the current war may
be that, as patrons of wayward clients, both the United States and Iran
have more in common than they may recognize. Both would benefit from a
cease-fire that ends the risk of a regional war. The Patron’s Dilemma.
Although global missile proliferation today relies
primarily on Iran and North Korea, it is likely to expand as commercial
space activities democratize access to fundamental missile technology. Both
state and nonstate groups are increasingly recognizing the coercive power
of these missile arsenals. What Proliferation
Means For Global Security.
Although the Chinese-Russian strategic
relationship has arisen over decades, that relationship – to say nothing of
Moscow’s ties to Pyongyang and Tehran – has ripened considerably during the
war in Ukraine. In the years ahead, the challenge of adversary
alignment may well be inevitable. Why
It Will Not Surprise.
The breakdown of the Ottoman Empire in the Middle
East would reach a fever pitch during the Versailles deliberations. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Four.
Hamas’s Oct. 7 attacks provided Ankara a unique
opportunity for Erdogan to stand with Israel and one which he is likely to
squander. Rather than condemn Hamas and distance himself from a militant
group, Erdogan is poised to sacrifice Turkey’s strategic interests again in
favor of his Islamist beliefs. Erdogan
And Hamas.
Although many Western policymakers think they know
better than to treat the non-Western world as an unvariegated whole, they
should use the phrase “global South” with particular care. The Rest Of The World.
Putin’s Russia will continue to be a revisionist
state bent on expanding its territory – by force if necessary. Any durable
peace must thus be based on deterrence, not satisfaction with the status
quo. Obstacles To Diplomacy In Ukraine.
China will likely continue to contribute about a
third of the world’s economic growth while increasing its economic
footprint, particularly in Asia. If U.S. policymakers underappreciate this,
they are likely to overestimate their ability to sustain the deepening of
economic and security ties with Asian partners. Misconceptions
About China.
Iran’s actions and introducing more predictability
in the Middle East would be a great improvement. Iran has learned to play
the current game well, and it understands its advantages. A Détente Option For Iran.
The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing already
strong Israeli incentives for more, not less, military escalation with
Iran. The Gaza war seems to be reinforcing already strong Israeli
incentives for more, not less, military escalation with Iran. Where This War Will Go Next?
After half a year of nearly steadfast support,
it’s time for the Biden administration to firmly push Israel in the
direction it should go anyway. Honesty is what friends owe friends. Stuck In Gaza.
It all began in Beijing. Narendra Modi was the
chief minister of Gujarat when he visited in 2011 to pitch his state as a
destination for Chinese investment. As India’s ambassador to China at the
time, S. Jaishankar was tasked with helping to facilitate meetings with
Chinese Communist Party leaders and officials, companies, and even Indian
students there. Modi’s New Messenger.
The most celebrated and reliable chronicler of
pre-Zionist Palestine. Was Mark Twain, who wrote about his travels in the
undivided Palestine that time called the Holy Land. Witness To Palestine.
Amidst Israel’s ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip
and concerns over an increased Iranian role in the war, reports are
emerging that Israel may acquire the new F-15EX soon. The New Capacity.
Several U.S. presidents hoped to downsize
America’s role in the Middle East on the cheap – in Biden’s case, to focus
on China’s challenge and Russia’s growing threat. But Hamas and Iran have
drawn the United States back in. Iran’s
Strategy.
The current mass exodus of Chinese people from
their homeland is evidence they want to live in nations that respect human
rights, honor the rule of law, and offer a wide choice of opportunities. As
Taiwan’s example makes plain, China could be such a place, too. Competition With China To Be Won.
Mark Sykes suggested that: It would be worth
considering whether a new department under a secretary or under-secretary
of state should not be started, this would be the Department of the Near
East and would be responsible for policy and administration of Egypt,
Arabia, and Mesopotamia. The Making
Of The Modern Middle East Part Five.
Since October 7, the motto “Together We Will Win”
has rallied the Israeli public in the fight against the perpetrators of
that day’s attacks. But Israelis must remember that any military victory
will turn into defeat if it undermines the core values of a Jewish and
democratic Israel. The Only Way Is To
Defeat Hamas.
Many describe NATO as the United States’
indispensable alliance – and it remains a top priority. However given the
geopolitical shift to the Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Japanese alliance is far
more important. The Pacific Space.
As we have seen, in the strange new diplomatic
game of appeasing American sensitivities on the Ottoman settlement, Lloyd
George and the British believed that, in Faisal and his Arab irregulars,
they had an ace in the hole, a façade to rule behind. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Six.
The BJP marches on. It seems certain to win in the
coming election, so the next five years are all but guaranteed to feature
further authoritarianism and increasing marginalization of Muslims. But if
the party scores big, it may be able to irrevocably restructure the Indian
polity. The margins, therefore, matter. The Fate
Of Over 1.4 Billion People Hangs In The Balance.
The only solution for the Palestinians to this
conundrum is the destruction of Israel. But they cannot destroy Israel. The
destruction of Israel represents a far-fetched scenario but were it to
happen, it would necessitate that other nations hostile to Israel, both
bordering the Jewish state and elsewhere in the region, play a major role.
And if they did play this role, there is nothing in their history,
ideology, or position that indicates they would find the creation of a
Palestinian state in their interests. Each would have very different ideas
of what to do in the event of Israel’s destruction. The Making Of The Modern Middle East Part Seven.
US president issues statement after Israeli
military says Iran launched more than 200 drones and missiles.
While the US House of Representatives plans a raft
of Iran sanctions votes after the attack on Israel, UN
Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned “the serious escalation
represented by the large-scale attack launched against Israel by the Islamic
Republic of Iran. How might a war between Israel and Iran be fought? The Cascading World.
The Middle East Could Still Explode. Despite the
abject failure of the Iranian attack, Israel might still feel the need to
hit Iran somewhere to demonstrate that it will never be deterred from
responding to restore its deterrent. Why Iran
And Israel May Not Be Finished.
Iran attack shows Israeli deterrence policy
‘shattered’, Netanyahu critics say.
According to the
Wall Street Journal, Israel’s
War Leaders Don’t Trust One Another.
After the past two years of carnage in Ukraine,
all of this may be so much water under the bridge. But it is a reminder
that Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises
to end the war. So if and when Kyiv and Moscow return to the negotiating
table, they’ll find it littered with ideas that could yet prove useful in
building a durable peace. The Way Forward
In Ukraine.
Even though Israel and its partners say they
downed more than 99 percent of the hundreds of drones and
missiles that Iran fired at it over the weekend in a major moment of
escalation in the Middle East, Israeli leaders say they have no choice but
to respond. These Are The Three
Options.
The Biden administration has repeatedly said that
its support for Israel remains “ironclad” but noted that the United States
does not support an Israeli counterattack against Iran and will not
participate in such an attack. It did not specify whether that extended to
all forms of attack, including cyber operations, or just to kinetic
military operations. Israel’s
Cyberabilities.
Vladimir Putin happened to turn 71 last October 7,
the day Hamas assaulted Israel. The Russian president took the rampage as a
birthday present; it shifted the context around his aggression in Ukraine.
Perhaps to show his appreciation, he had his Foreign Ministry invite
high-ranking Hamas representatives to Moscow in late October, highlighting
an alignment of interests. The Five
Futures Of Russia.
Last weekend, there was a lot of commentary on
social media and elsewhere expressing amazement at a new Middle East in
which countries of the region coordinated an effort to thwart Iran’s attack
on Israel. There is something to be said for that. But what’s more amazing
when one takes a step back is that war has not changed the region that
much. Relations With Israel And American
Leadership.
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Biden also announced an investigation into China’s
shipbuilding and logistics sectors, which the U.S. United Steelworkers
Union and others have been accused of unfair trade practices. The
Chinese Embassy in the United States condemned Biden’s decision. The
International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday that such actions
could increase inflation and worsen already fraught bilateral relations. So What Is It All About?
As long as Iran continues to press in its strategy
of encircling Israel, and funneling advanced weapons to militant proxies
that threaten Israeli population centers, Israel will be compelled to
pursue its countervailing campaign against Iran. Why Tehran’s Hard-Liners Choose To Escalate.
Security sources in Iraq say a huge blast has hit
a military base that houses pro-Iranian militias. Indeed, the fastest route
to attack targets in the north of Iran would be through Syria and Iraq. The
Israeli air force would have to suppress Syria’s air defenses either by
jamming or by a cyberattack, as in 2007 when Israel destroyed what it said
was a nuclear reactor being built in Syria. Israel “switched off” a large
section of Syria’s air defense radar network beforehand. Dilemmas Of The Gulf States.
A massive explosion leaves a huge crater in an
Iraqi military base after a suspected Israeli strike.
Muslim rule was first introduced to South
Asia when Arab forces seized control of the Sind region of the
southern Indus Plain (now in Pakistan) in 711. Around the same time, the
greatest empires of ancient India were based in the Gangetic Plain which,
along with the Indus Plain, boasted the earliest urban centers of the
subcontinent. The British ‘Company’
And The Conquest Of India.
What Underground Empire and Digital
Empires suggest is that technology can help international relations
theorists better understand the power debates that have haunted them since
the days of Sparta and Athens. The New
Empires Of The Internet.
It appears that the war in Gaza is winding down.
It is by no means certain that it won’t re-ignite with an assault on Rafah,
as Israel has threatened, or that the low-intensity conflict between Israel
and Hezbollah won’t spiral into a full-fledged war. But for now, as a
testament to the prioritizing of realpolitik and economic interest by Arab
leaders, these ties have stood the test. Jordanian
Fighter Pilots.
The nature and degree of popular anger, the
decline of U.S. primacy and the collapse of its legitimacy, and Arab
regimes’ prioritization of their domestic survival, as well as regional
competition, suggest that the new regional order will be much more attentive
to public opinion than the old. The
Coming Arab Backlash.
Top Israeli officials were caught off guard by
reports that Washington is considering cutting off U.S. aid to a Jewish
Orthodox battalion accused of committing human rights abuses in the West
Bank. Judicial Reforms As War Of Words
Escalates.
The global innovation and creativity necessary to
solve the world’s challenges thrive best in open societies. Transparency,
the rule of law, and official accountability are the foundation of healthy,
sustained global economic growth. The current system of alliances, although
insufficient to ensure global peace and security, has helped prevent war
from breaking out among the world’s great powers for more than 70 years.
China has not yet managed to convince a majority of the planet’s people
that its intentions and capabilities are the ones needed to shape the
twenty-first century. China Today And
Tomorrow.
Instead of projecting the West’s fears and hopes
onto China, Western officials better try to understand how China’s leaders
perceive their country and their ambitions. The idea of peak China only
confuses the debate in the United States. It leads some to argue that
China’s weaknesses are the problem and others to suggest that China’s
strengths pose the biggest risks. A
Problem With China’s Economy.
The U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific
Adm. John Aquilino said he didn’t believe the economic growth figures
reported by China and described the country’s economy as failing.
If a century of failure has made clear that the
two sides are unlikely to be reconciled in the foreseeable future, the war
in Gaza has exposed the terrifying cataclysm that poor handling of the
conflict can bring about. When the fighting is over, imaginative,
resourceful, and compassionate management of the conflict between the two
sides will be more crucial than ever. Gaza
After Gaza.
The uprising sparked by the Foreign Office
authorizing Sir Henry McMahon to enter into negotiations with Sharif
Hussein and the debates surrounding the Sykes-Picot agreement has shaped
the Middle East into forms that would have been unrecognizable to the
diplomats of the 19th century. The Making Of The Middle East.
Pictured below according to the White House is
the one person who is blocking the release of Israeli hostages. Qatar And The Hamas Leader.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken ended three days
of meetings in China on Friday with a stark warning to China’s leadership,
stop exporting materials that allow Russia to rebuild its industrial base
or face U.S. sanctions. There is a tendency to downplay the significance of
growing cooperation among China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. By turning
to Beijing, this argument goes, Moscow merely signals its acceptance of the
role of junior partner. Obtaining drones from Iran and munitions from North
Korea demonstrates the desperation of a Russian war machine that
incorrectly assumed that conquering Ukraine would be easy. The attacks
on Kyiv and Kharkiv. The Anti-Western
Club.
King Edward VIII, subsequent Duke of Windsor, told
his friend Diana Mosley, the wife of the British Fascist leader, Sir Oswald
Mosley, that ‘every drop of blood in my veins is German’ was initially
influenced by his family members among the German aristocracy, which also
led to Hitler's idea of an Anglo-German collaboration. Royalty And The Nazi's Part One.
A flurry of arrests this week reflects the
continent’s newly toughened response to Beijing’s espionage activities and
political meddling. In all, six people in three separate cases have
been charged this week in Europe with spying for China: two in Britain and
four in Germany.
Wang 'William' Leqiang the first Chinese operative to ever blow his
cover in Australia. Overview Of Chinese
Spy Activities.
The U.S. secretary of state and the Chinese
president tried to stabilize U.S.-China relations, but ser the United
States and China agreed to continue improving bilateral communication
between their militaries as well as increase cultural exchanges, with
Blinken saying he supports more U.S. citizens studying in China. Blinken-Xi Also Highlight Continued Areas Of
Disagreement.
What made the documents in the 'Red
Book' remarkable is because of their complete absence from the
official histories of pro-Nazi fascists in Britain. Hence although some of
the perpetrators would challenge their detentions in the courts, their
detailed plans for a Nazi puppet regime were never revealed. The Red Book.
Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s response to
it has been a disaster for civilians. In its October 7 massacre, Hamas
sought out unarmed Israeli civilians, including women, children, and the
elderly, killing close to 1,200 people and taking around 240 hostages.
Israel’s subsequent air and ground campaign in Gaza has, as of March 2024. Why International Law Is Failing.
AI systems to be tested and evaluated to ensure
that they function as anticipated and adhere to the Pentagon’s AI Ethical
Principles and its Responsible AI Strategy. This was an important first
step in the safe development and implementation of these technologies. AI Large Language Models.
Ultimately, any successful end to the Ukraine war
will depend on NATO’s ability to convincingly deter Russia. That posture
requires the alliance not only to field sufficient forces to counter a
threat from Russia but also to establish sufficient production capacity
among its members to sustain a steady flow of munitions in the event of
another war. American Aid Alone Won’t Save
Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s ruthless response to defectors is
unlikely to help Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Creating more fear within
the military and intelligence services will certainly not raise
morale. The Russian Volunteer Corps.
Middle powers today have more agency than at any
time since World War II. These are countries with significant leverage in
geopolitics, but they are less powerful than the world’s two superpowers
- the United States and China. In the global north, they include France,
Germany, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and others. Except for Russia, these
countries do not tell us much about the shifting dynamics of power and
leverage, as they remain broadly aligned with the United States. Importance Of The Middle powers.
The new behavior that the Iran-Israel
crisis in April provoked in numerous states shows that long-standing
realities in the Middle East can change. Iran is now in a weak position,
and Israel has a window of opportunity in an otherwise very difficult year.
Rarely has Israel so urgently needed to seize a potential strategic
opportunity. But This Is Equally True For
The United States.
Many in Israel viewed the protests at Harvard (and
soon other Universities) with confusion and anxiety, seeing them as an
attack on the country and not just its government. "We didn’t know so
many people hated Israel. I don’t think these young people know a lot about
Israel or the conflict." When The
Palestinian Flag Was Raised At Harvard.
Disrupting propaganda efforts by malign foreign
actors is important work, but it must be done thoroughly, accurately, and
proportionally. Exaggerating the effects of foreign influence campaigns
serves only the foreign operatives. It fosters a conspiratorial outlook, in
which shadowy enemies are supposedly creating wedge issues, dissenters are
merely parroting foreign spies, and trust in open democratic debate is
eroded. Foreign Propagandists.
The current U.S. approach to China’s nuclear
program is ineffective. Proposals made by American analysts for
de-escalating the arms race typically call for mutual restraint at the
military-technical level through measures that enhance nuclear transparency
or limit new strategic weapons. But these suggestions do not directly
tackle the underlying concerns and grievances that drive China’s nuclear
buildup, and unsurprisingly they have failed to interest Xi. The Real Motives For China’s Nuclear Expansion.
The stakes of U.S. policy toward a Saudi nuclear
program extend beyond the kingdom itself, and even the Middle East.
Washington’s strategy this time will set a precedent that could apply to
other countries, such as South Korea and Germany, that may seek to expand
their civilian nuclear programs. Saying yes to one ally makes it harder to
say no to others. Will Saudi
Arabia Get The Bomb?
Biden is trailing Trump, his Republican rival for
the presidency, in many key polls. Trump blames Biden for the struggles of
many Americans, but the blame should lie with the structural problems that
too few presidents have addressed. Biden needs to show he will go after the
causes, not only the symptoms, of this malaise. Showing An Industrial Strategy.
The most dynamic and deadly offshoot of the Muslim
Brotherhood is Hamas. Only after the outbreak of the Intifada in 1987 was
the Muslim Brotherhood formed into the political entity that carried out a
terrorist war against Israel. At the same time, Hamas was launching a war
with Israel. Hamas Part Two.
Social media sites like TikTok are partly to blame
for widespread criticism of Israel’s war effort against Hamas in Gaza,
according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “Why has Hamas
disappeared in terms of public perception?” he continued. “An offer is on
the table for a ceasefire and yet the world is screaming about Israel,”
Blinken said that part of the reason for that dynamic was a changing media
environment, where people no longer all read from the same authoritative
news sources and instead learn about current events on chaotic social media
feeds. Why TikTok Needs To Get Out Of The Hands
Of The Chinese Government.
If things turn out
ok in TikTok’s case, it will be a consequence of luck, not strategy. A
strategy - one that is coherent, comprehensive, and long-term - is what the
United States needs in its rivalry with China, as ad hoc hurried efforts
cannot make up for years of avoiding tough decisions. The TikTok Ban Shows How Decisions End Up
Rushed.
Israel-3
Israel’s war
cabinet votes to attack Rafah. The Israel Defense Forces said Tuesday that
it had taken “operational control” of the Gaza side of the Rafah
crossing. A better US sanctions strategy is essential to this effort,
and so, too, is ratcheting up pressure on Russia. If the United States and
its partners cannot effectively isolate Russia from the global economy,
then there is little hope that they would fare better against the far
greater challenge of China. Why U.S.
Credibility And Resolve Is At Stake.
Israel-2
The 'Battle For
Gaza' (where the head of Hamas is holed up) seems about to start: Israeli
Tanks Enter Rafah and Take Control of the Border Crossing. A Gaza
border official, said travel and the flow of aid into the Strip have
“stopped completely” as a result. Hamas earlier said it agreed to
a Qatari-Egyptian cease-fire proposal and Israel said it would send
meditators to negotiate in Egypt, renewing hopes for a pause in fighting even as the Israeli Defense
Forces said it struck more
than 50 targets in Rafah. Apparently Israel has no trust in what Hamas
says.
Israel-1
Back in the late 1950s, there were almost as many
18-to 23-year-old men in Japan as there were in the United States, making
Tokyo a valuable U.S. Pacific ally. But that is now ancient history. By
2020, Japan had less than a third as many military-age men as the United
States. By 2050, it could have barely a fifth. East Asia’s Coming Population Collapse.
Despite the U.S. Congress’s recent approval of $61
billion in military aid, Ukraine is at its most fragile point in more than
two years. Strikes on Russian refineries alone will not force Moscow to
capitulate, but they do make the war more difficult and expensive for
Russia - and so, if nothing else, when the time comes for negotiations,
they may push the Kremlin to make concessions. Washington’s Fears About Energy Markets.
As officials in Riyadh predicted then, there would
come a time when the president would need the Saudi leader. They did not
wait too long. The upward pressure on gasoline prices during the
post-COVID-19 travel surge and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presented
unique challenges to the White House - challenges that required Saudi help
to address. Saudi Arabia Is On The
Way To Becoming The Next Egypt.
Taiwan is a responsible member of the
international community, and its position on maintaining the cross-Strait
status quo will not change. But it needs the world’s democracies to do
their utmost to help maintain peace through strength and unity. By continuing
to support Ukraine in its fight for survival in the face of Russian
aggression, the world’s democracies have demonstrated exactly the kind of
resolve and moral clarity that Taiwan also needs from them. The Interconnected Fates Of The World’s
Democracies.
It is dangerous to believe that a regional
equilibrium will be maintained simply by pouring a lot of money into
defensive systems and denial technologies. Front-line states must have the
ability - and the support of their allies - to strike the enemy behind the
apparent safety of its borders and not just absorb its attacks. Pressuring Allies Not To Retaliate Against
Attacks Raises The Risk Of Spiraling Conflicts.
Peril lies in the fact that both Hamas and
Hezbollah truly believe that Israel’s destruction is inevitable and that
October 7 is simply the beginning of an irreversible process that will
ultimately achieve just that. Anyone who truly supports the idea of
securing a durable settlement to this conflict must oppose including Hamas
in Palestinian governance for the simple reason that Hamas’ fundamental
goals are incompatible with peace. The Rafah
Operation.
Singaporeans’ views on the Israel-Hamas current
war in Gaza’ are relevant, just as they are with Ukraine. After all, it’s a
country that has long-standing ties to Israel - especially its security
sector. Indeed, Singapore built up its defense capacity with help
from Israel, starting very soon after Singapore gained independence.
Trade between the two countries reportedly crossed exceeded $1 billion in
2022, and Singapore upgraded its diplomatic presence soon thereafter, by
establishing a full ambassadorship and embassy in Tel Aviv that year. Israel From A Singaporean Perspective.
Attempting to
appease Putin is futile, and wishfully seeking fragmentation within Russia
is unlikely to be effective as long as the country remains financially
robust, maintains the upper hand over Ukraine, and secures total domestic
control. The authorities are rapidly becoming more hawkish, the elites are
increasingly embracing Putin’s war agenda, and the broader society is
unable (or indeed unwilling) to exert the kind of pressure that might push
Russia in a different direction. Russia’s
Pro-Putin Elites.
Investigation and prosecution of corruption within
the United States Navy. The
Ongoing Investigation.
Hamas could soon
create a situation that is far more dangerous and destabilizing than the
one that allowed it to launch the October 7 attack. The peril lies in the
fact that both Hamas and Hezbollah truly believe that Israel’s destruction
is inevitable and that October 7 is simply the beginning of an irreversible
process that will ultimately achieve just that. Anyone who truly supports
the idea of securing a durable settlement to this conflict must oppose
including Hamas in Palestinian governance for the simple reason that
Hamas’s fundamental goals are incompatible with peace. Hamas‘s Future.
In March, Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister,
said Europe was in a "prewar" era and that if Russia defeated
Ukraine, it could spell trouble for the security of the continent. Putin Threatens the West
with "Special Ammunition."
Last month, NATO,
the world’s most successful military alliance, celebrated its 75th
anniversary. Some fear that it may have been its last anniversary with the
United States playing a leading role. Former U.S. President Donald Trump
still views the alliance as obsolete. The
End of NATO?
High-tech networks are central to the basic
functioning of modern societies, but today’s infrastructure is too
multifaceted, layered, and interconnected for any one state to truly
control it. In the age of infrastructure, shaping world order requires
political leaders to find new ways to collaborate with the entrepreneurs,
builders, bankers, and operators who manage the interdependent systems that
sustain twenty-first-century life. Infrastructure Is Remaking Geopolitics.
As great powers, China and the United States may
never become great friends. But they can resist becoming enemies. Level
heads and cautious optimism will help maintain the stability of the world’s
most important relationship. Fatalism and recklessness will only drive the
countries toward a conflict that neither wants. US-China Relations.
China’s relentless
urbanization, then, promises to act as a continued check on Beijing’s
ambitions to raise birthrates. Most worrying for Beijing is the fact China
has a lot of room left to urbanize: Less than two-thirds of Chinese
citizens live in cities, compared to 81 percent of South Koreans and 92
percent of Japanese. Beijing will find efforts to raise the birthrate even
harder as a greater share of the 34 percent of its citizens currently
living in rural areas decamps to cities. The
World's Second Most Populous Country.
To ensure you know, our research has nothing to do
with the poorly written and inaccurate book Tracers in the Dark By Andy
Greenberg, apparently written for entertainment purposes. Or at least it
has many factual errors where she claims that Bitcoin and other
cryptocurrencies cannot be traced, whereby there is nothing further from
the truth, as we will explain. We do not incorporate anything that Tracers
in the Dark book. Instead, we will, among others, detail why people
like Sam Bankman-Fried (and others who, in their way, tried to do similar)
are not innocent victims of what recently has been tossed around with
victims of the Federal Reserve's raising interest rates. Instead, we detail
what, in reality, are Cryptocurrency-Based
Crimes.
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Rare earth elements lithium, graphite, and cobalt
- support a wide variety of modern technologies.
Putting Xi's
Visit to Vietnam in Context.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam
will likely see the two countries agree to integrate their supply chains
further and symbolically upgrade their relationship, which will benefit
Vietnam amid the growing U.S.-China competition over rare earth minerals.
During his trip, the Chinese president is meeting with Nguyen Phu Trong,
the General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, to discuss
bringing China-Vietnam relations to a higher position.' Chinese Foreign
Minister Wang Yi visited Hanoi earlier this month, which likely involved
finalizing a joint statement that will be unveiled during Xi's visit. China
and Vietnam agreed to upgrade rail infrastructure and more thoroughly
integrate supply chains, focusing on rare earth.
Rare but true in
some Czech villages, St Nicholas leads a parade with the devil and Grim
Reaper in tow:
Nomads of
Mongolia have adapted, once again, adding new technologies to their arsenal
of traditional knowledge to negotiate an increasingly unreliable climate.
Motorbikes mean they can zip through dust storms to look for lost sheep.
Solar energy means they can keep their phones charged and access the
internet to exchange information with neighbors about newer pastures and
keep their freezers going to preserve meat for lean days.
UN General
Assembly adopts a resolution on “Protection of civilians and upholding
legal and humanitarian obligations” during the 45th plenary meeting of the
resumed 10th Emergency Special Session.
Normalizing Hamas within the context of revivified
Palestinian politics will be a bitter pill to swallow, but the alternatives
- such as continuing to insist on Hamas’s destruction, attempting to drag
an illegitimate and ineffective PA to Gaza, or forcing elections in a
volatile and crisis-ridden environment - will likely backfire as they have
in the past.
Hamas leader
Sinwar fled northern Gaza in a humanitarian convoy, report says. Rally held
for hostages, as those freed speak of hell, reminiscent of the Holocaust.
The UN Security Council in New York was set to vote later in the day on
another call for a ceasefire in the besieged territory after previous bids
were vetoed by the United States. Israel has approved aid deliveries into
Gaza via its Kerem Shalom crossing, aside from the Rafah crossing with
Egypt, and a first truck convoy passed through Kerem on Sunday according to
the Egyptian Red Crescent. The Way Going Forward In Gaza.
Could Hamas
Become a Global Threat? The
Iranian-Palestinian Marriage Of Convenience.
In ushering in a
new constitutional order, Israel has the rare opportunity to complete one
of the great unrealized goals of its founders. If Israelis can achieve this
lofty goal in the wake of the worst national catastrophe since then,
they will have successfully turned the terrible tragedy of October 7
into a historic opportunity to not only defend the Jewish state but also to
secure its democratic future for generations to come. How Hamas Has United Israelis Behind The
War.
Israel seeks to
destroy Hamas, capturing or killing its leaders, shattering its military
capacity, and ending its power in Gaza. It seeks the release of the
hostages who were kidnapped on October 7 and remain alive. Its leaders
must make hard choices about which goals to prioritize and which to set
aside. Researching Israel’s Goals And
Strategy.
Biden must not threaten to withhold necessary
military assistance from Israel. But he can make it clearer to the Israelis
that the continued strength of their relationship with Washington rests on
Israel's understanding that it cannot reoccupy Gaza and that their ultimate
security guarantee will be a peace agreement with a similarly peace-minded
Palestinian state. Why Israel Will
Remain In Gaza.
The inter-office rivalry and jumble of complex
issues competing for attention that British officials juggled while
inadvertently shaping the future of the world. It is unique in how and why
the British generals and diplomats acted as they did. By took as his
starting point the voluminous, contradictory, and revealing records of the
policy-makers in the British government and that many concerned with
foreign policy-making were quite oblivious to the history and complexities
of the Islamic World and how the British Empire tried to change the world
with how shallow and confused the understanding of those that shaped the
future of the Middle East was. Part One:
Until after the U.S. election season passes, great
political and practical pressures weigh on Biden, should he should choose
to be bold. But Far Greater Risks May Emerge If
He Doesn’t.
The Sea of Marmara (/ˈmɑːrmərə/; Turkish:
Marmara Denizi; Greek: Θάλασσα του Μαρμαρά, Ancient
Greek: Προποντίς, Προποντίδα), also known as the Sea of Marmora
or the Marmara Sea, and in the context of classical antiquity as
the Propontis. Turkey In Context.
Vladimir Putin,
who compared himself to Peter
the Great, is determined to shape the future to
look like his past version. This treatise, and similar public
statements, make clear that Putin wants a world where Russia presides over a new
Slavic union composed of Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, and perhaps the northern
part of Kazakhstan (which is heavily Slavic) – and where all the other
post-Soviet states recognize Russia’s suzerainty. Bolshevik Rule.
Although the UAE
might seem ahead of its neighbors now, many states are hot on its tail and
undermining its security. As a result, rather than trying to
hinge itself beyond the region, the country’s long-term security and
economic interests will be better served by a stronger regional security
framework - a process that requires deeper regional integration and more
effective conflict resolution mechanisms. The UAE
And Its Talest Building In The World.
“My gut tells me
we will fight in 2025,” U.S. Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan wrote in a
January memo to officers in the Air Mobility Command. The memo, which
promptly leaked to reporters, warned that the United States and China
were barreling toward a conflict over Taiwan. US New World War.
Gaza must once again return to its roots as the
prosperous crossroads it was for centuries. To start with, the policy of
siege and blockade must end, allowing the territory to finally reconnect
with the rest of the region. Gaza
Historical Role.
Chinese Spy Operations.
Today is the
final day of the Feidong, China traditional firework display that forms
part of the county’s three-day New Year celebrations:
A "far-right
international” would help Putin strengthen his hand. He hopes that it might
prompt Western states to weaken sanctions, for example, or to cut back on
support for Kyiv. The result might be a more durable Kremlin regime. And
for Putin, that in itself would be a win. Putin
And The Right.
Election security
should not be a matter of politics or partisanship but rather preserving
the integrity of the country’s most sacred democratic process. Americans
must work together so that the malicious use of generative AI is just
another line in a long list of challenges that the American electoral
process can and has overcome. Generative
Artificial Intelligence.
The story of why
the former head of a former English Order of the Russian Tradition
currently runs a bed-and-breakfast in Italy. Alexandre Tissot And The British Association.
Prematurely
abandoning Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other
adversaries. It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the
United States does not have the appetite to support the victims of
aggression once a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it
cannot defend more than one country in one region at a time. All this could
encourage further adventurism. By continuing to help Ukraine resist Russian
aggression, the United States can send a powerful signal to a broader range
of rivals: unprovoked aggression will not go unpunished. All This Could Encourage Further Adventurism.
Prematurely abandoning
Ukraine to preserve resources for Taiwan could embolden other adversaries.
It might, for example, signal to Iran and North Korea that the United
States does not have the appetite to support the victims of aggression once
a conflict becomes protracted, or at the very least that it cannot defend
more than one country in one region at a time. All this could encourage
further adventurism. The
Ukraine-Taiwan Tradeoff.
Within a few
hours of the Pearl Harbor attack, a Zero pilot whose engine had been damaged
by antiaircraft fire ditched his plane on Niihau, a sleepy island located
150 miles northwest of Honolulu and inhabited by 250 Hawaiians and part
Hawaiians, one issei, and a nisei couple with a two-year-old daughter. From
7 December until 13 December the pilot, helped by the nisei husband,
imposed his will on the island, whose inhabitants had no
communications with the outside world except for a weekly boat from
neighboring Kauai. From Pearl
Harbour On.
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During Taiwan’s election,
there are worrying signals that his thinking is moving in the latter
direction. Xi has stated that the Taiwan issue cannot be passed on to
future generations and that achieving unification is the essence of the
country’s rejuvenation. Taiwan Today.
An armed gang stormed the studio of a major television
station in Ecuador on Tuesday, waving pistols, machine guns, and sticks of
dynamite. The gunmen burst into the headquarters of the TC Televisión
network in Ecuador’s largest city, Guayaquil. Ecuador's police were
deployed to the station, eventually recapturing the building.
The storming of the station comes amid a spate of
organized nationwide attacks by criminal groups across Ecuador. On Monday,
the country’s new president, Daniel Noboa, declared a state of emergency
after the escape of the country’s most dangerous gang leader.
The president of
Ecuador declares a state of 'internal armed conflict' as gang leader
escapes from Jail and gunman invades TV studio:
The current problems with Hamas go straight back
to the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which ended at a stroke thirteen hundred
years of imperialism in the Middle East, and was not a necessary, let alone
an inevitable, consequence of World War I. It was a self-inflicted disaster
by a shortsighted leadership blinded by imperialist ambitions. Had the
Ottomans heeded the Entente's repeated pleas for neutrality, their empire
would most likely have weathered the storm. However, they did not, and this
blunder led to the destruction of the Ottoman Empire by the British army
and the creation of the new Middle Eastern state system on its ruins. Even
this momentous development was not inevitable, and its main impetus came
not from the great powers but from a local imperial aspirant: Hussein ibn
Ali of the Hashemite family. The
Problems With The Middle East.
The US and UK militaries launched strikes
against Houthi
targets in
Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on Thursday, marking a significant
response after the Biden administration and its allies warned that the
Iran-backed militant group would bear
the consequences of
its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. US President Joe
Biden said he
ordered the strikes “in direct response to unprecedented Houthi
attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea.”
Taiwan expects
China to pressure the incoming govt after the election. Unless Cina
gives Taiwan up on trying to take control of the island, the CCP will
always work to distort Taiwanese politics. But the island has devoted
considerable time and resources to bolstering its resilience, developing a
response as adaptive as Beijing’s efforts. The Taiwan Conundrum.
Satellite images
show a damaged radar site at Sana'a Airport in Yemen following Friday's
strikes. So a second round of strikes at Houthi targets would seem to
reflect the determination of the Americans to match their declared intent -
to degrade the Houthis military and, in so doing, remove a complication
that carries the threat of expanding aggression in the region. The Measure Of Their Effectiveness Will Be In How
The Houthis Respond.
China urges the
US, UK, and Japan not to interfere in ‘China’s internal affairs’ after they
congratulate Lai Ching-te on his election win. This is where China has no
right to call Taiwan part of China, historical records prove otherwise. Yet
Following the result of the free elections China again sent navy vessels to
intimidate Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait is increasingly a critical military
flashpoint within this broad expanse. Tensions are mounting as the People’s
Republic of China (PRC) ramps up its political, economic, and military
pressure on Taiwan and its other neighbors. There
are warning signs that Beijing may accelerate its plan to seize Taiwan by
force if necessary. President Biden’s strong start regarding the Taiwan
issue comes against the backdrop of China dramatically increasing military
activity in the waters and air space near the island.
Either the United
States and its international partners must make a historic decision to end
the conflict now and move both sides swiftly toward a viable two-state
solution, or the world will have to contend with an even darker future.
Soon, it will no longer be a question of occupation but the more difficult
issue of outright apartheid. The Choice
Cannot Be Clearer.
Haiti's capital Port-au-Prince was on lockdown on
Thursday, as flaming barricades across several neighborhoods forced
residents to shelter in place or return home in the latest flare-ups in
chronic gang violence plaguing the Caribbean country. Who Will Lead Haiti?
The idea that
military dominance must be pursued in Asia is deeply ingrained in U.S.
foreign and defense policy. This presumption risks becoming even more
entrenched as leaders in both political parties fear slipping behind
Beijing. But a balancing approach constitutes neither appeasement nor
defeatism. It is perhaps the only fiscally sustainable way to protect U.S.
interests in the region for decades to come. America Can’t Surpass
China’s Power in Asia. But It Can Still
Prevent Chinese Hegemony.
The Israel-Hamas
war has changed the Middle East: immense public anger has been stirred up,
and animus toward the West could spark fresh extremism and political
instability. For the region’s rulers, even those whom Washington counts as
allies, the war has changed fundamental assumptions about their security
and their relations with the West. The
Ongoing Houthi Attacks.
With the
frontline at a territorial stalemate, Ukraine’s chances of regaining full
control of the occupied territories by force of arms in 2024 appear slim.
Any armistice or freezing of the conflict would draw a line through
southern and eastern Ukraine, leaving millions of Ukrainians under Russian
rule. As the war grinds on, Russia has time to further consolidate its
political, economic, and administrative occupation, making the eventual
reintegration of these territories back into Ukraine increasingly difficult. The Quiet Transformation.
If 2023 is any
indication, it would be far better for pragmatic U.S. policymakers to use
American power to shift the course of events in the Holy Land than to hand
the situation over to extremists and to the bloody dynamics they encourage.
Why Peace Remains Possible.
Containment
offers a policy blend capable of working from the fine-grained details of
an AI model out to huge public programs that could mitigate vast job
destruction. The New Threat.
The current
moment is, arguably, the most sensitive in Myanmar’s modern history. The
junta is the weakest it has ever been and the resistance has made
unprecedented territorial, political, and military gains. Whereby the
various resistance groups will need to negotiate settlements among
themselves. The Future Of Myanmar.
Great
catastrophes often seem unthinkable until they happen. As the strategic
environment deteriorates, it’s time to recognize how eminently thinkable
global conflict has become. Regional
Conflicts Resemble World War II.
Russians believe
that the timeless essence of the United States is the will to power: this
clarifies the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine, and it also explains
Russia’s refusal to wind down its devastating war in Ukraine. Captivating
as they are, myths mislead by obscuring the awesome complexity and
open-endedness of reality. Gaza Makes
A Nuclear Iran More Likely.
A business-as-usual election campaign would not do
justice to the challenges that may lie ahead. Instead, political parties
need to debate fundamental strategic choices and make the defense of
democracy and EU institutional reform a key part of their appeals. Preparing For American Abandonment.
The Middle East
is facing a moment of reckoning. If it becomes paralyzed by the horrific
bloodshed in Gaza, it could further descend into crisis and conflict. Or it
can start building a different future. The Path To A Regional Order.
The military campaign that Israel launched in
response to Hamas’s brutal October 7 attacks has killed more than 27,000
people in the Gaza Strip and injured more than 60,000 others, according to
the Gaza Health Ministry. About 75 percent of Gaza’s population of 2.3
million has been displaced. Some 400,000 people are enduring famine due to
the blockade Israel has imposed on Gaza and severe restrictions on
humanitarian aid that have deprived civilians of what they need to survive.
This number could grow if international funding for aid falters. America’s Hypocrisy on Gaza.
Washington and its allies face many potential geopolitical
catastrophes over the next decade, but nearly all pale in comparison to
what would ensue if China annexed or invaded Taiwan. Japan Defense And China Springboard.
The most contested ground of the Russian Civil War,
was a line of supply for the White shadow government that was fought over
by partisans and controlled by the Czechoslovak Legion of ex-prisoners of
war. From Moscow To China.
Handel Celebration
Concert | The English Concert, Händelfestspielorchester Halle, Howard Arman
Adagios from
Romantic Piano Concertos
Klassik
am Odeonsplatz mit Valery Gergiev, Daniil Trifonov und den Münchner
Philharmonikern; Daniil Trifonov played Beethoven's piano concerto no. 5.
As many as 8.000 people joined.
Advocates of a renewed
push for a two-state solution will claim that it is the most realistic
option. No matter how the war in Gaza ends, it is improbable that a
two-state solution - or an equitable one-state solution, for that matter -
will be on offer. Israel And Hamas.
Given the
precedents over centuries of Chinese philosophy for the kind of synthesis
Xi is attempting, it is curious that he relies so heavily on very ancient
sources. President Xi's Thought.
The
Russian-Ukraine war will end when one side believes it is no longer worth
the effort and looks to cut its losses. That decision will be the
consequence not only of military factors but also of economic, social, and
political ones. Why The War Might Defy
Expectations.
It is awkward
timing for a book extolling Israeli military prowess. On October
7. Israel’s armed forces were caught by surprise, suffering a
terrorist attack that resulted in the bloodiest day for Israel since its
independence in 1948 and the bloodiest for Jews anywhere since the
Holocaust. How Israel Fights.
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The Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) have announced they are “expanding ground operations” in the
Gaza Strip, IDF spokesperson Rear Adm Daniel Hagari. In a televised news
briefing on Friday, he warned residents of Gaza City to move south, where
there will be “better conditions.” Meaning an invasion seems now imminent.
U.S.
Strikes Targets In Syria.
As a result, arguably, it was not just the economically
deprived who voted for Brexit. Garton Ash reports that an old friend of his
voted Leave; his father, he’s sure, would have done the same. Today, the
British are paying the price for a failure of politicians – and
intellectuals – to transform people’s mental map of where Britain truly
belongs. When Europe Fell Apart.
Understanding the problem is just the first step.
To solve it – to balance the need for speed with the need for safety –
policymakers will have to implement better approaches to accelerating
adoption and ensuring safety. Otherwise, Americans risk being caught in
spiraling AI dangers and declining U.S.
power and influence. AI is already at war; How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform
The Military.
Israel will require a long and painful
healing to regain its balance, its defense posture, and its composure. But
first and foremost, it will need to come to terms with the fact that this
war is different from any it has fought in many years and that it must
transform its approach to security. The End Of
Israel’s Gaza Illusions.
Since war broke out last month, Hezbollah – an
Iranian-backed Islamist group – has launched rockets, anti-tank missiles,
and drones into Israeli territory, killing and injuring IDF soldiers;
Israel has responded in kind, killing dozens of Hezbollah militants in
Lebanon. On Friday, Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s support for Hamas but
stopped short of committing his group to becoming more deeply involved in
the war. Yet he indicated that could change if the conflict continues. Duelling Speeches.
According to the Israeli military, various
Palestinian groups, including Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip and
staged the surprise attack on Israel on Oct. 7, are believed to be
holding more than 240 hostages. The Protests
In Israel.
The Dalai Lama is an honorary citizen of Canada,
and thus the government has the responsibility to protect his religious
freedom. It is also important for Buddhist countries such as South Korea
and several members of ASEAN to protect the traditions and customs of
Buddhism. The Next Dalai Lama.
Hard power is a critical element of the United
States’ efforts to uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. It is a
variable in the equation, however, and not the solution. Once More The Question Of Taiwan.
There seems to be an appetite for the United
Nations to maintain its role of promoting global security, even if it takes
on a more limited operational involvement in conflict than it has in the
past. Rather than deploying its own forces, the UN could support other
crisis managers, namely regional organizations and even individual
countries. How The World Lost Faith In The UN.
Israel’s actions
will unavoidably pose a great risk to its forces, to innocent Palestinians
in Gaza, and to the hostages. Destroying Hamas’s tunnel network is the
most difficult aspect of the Israeli military’s mission today, but it is
also among its most important. It is at least as important as the
elimination of Hamas’s chain of command. The
No Blueprint Assault.
The region is suffering from a precipitously
brutal coarsening of its politics. When it comes to the Palestinians,
the Qataris are true to their principles in support of Palestinian justice
and rights, yet, can be constructive, but the effort to win the release of
Israeli hostages in Gaza seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Why Did Antony Blinken Attend A Meeting In Doha?
Despite its military superiority, Israel never
succeeded in eradicating the PLO. Instead, the IDF’s primary
accomplishments were killing tens of thousands of civilians; fragmenting
Palestinian groups into smaller cells that spent years conducting hit-and-run
operations; inspiring the rise of a new Lebanese militant party, Hezbollah;
and losing over 1,000 of its own citizens in an occupation that stretched
until 2000. It Is A Pattern That Is Already
Playing Out Again.
Experience suggests that there is no perfect
formulaic response to terrorism, only less painful and more productive
responses. Many Israelis and Palestinians are equally convinced that their
victimhood justifies extreme and inhumane measures, and the rest of the
world feels compelled to choose sides. The voices of those seeking peaceful
outcomes by political means seem to be drowned out by those calling for
revenge, punishment, and the use of indiscriminate force. But if there is a
lesson to be drawn, it is that governments need to understand the
limitations of repression and force. Choosing it alone can only lead to
further tragedy. The Gaza Case.
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The United States and select NATO members (friends
of Ukraine coalition of the willing) better commit not just to long-term
economic and military help but also to guaranteeing Ukraine’s independence.
This undertaking would be modeled on Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which
provides for immediate consultations whenever “the territorial integrity,
political independence, or security” of a member is threatened. Negotiations Over Territory.
Israel has a few ways to eliminate Hamas’s
asymmetric advantages. The country cannot reverse technological change or
completely shut down pro-Hamas messaging on social media. But Israel does
have the power to react to Hamas’s terror attack strategically, and with
restraint. Doing so can sap Hamas of much of its power. What Does It Mean To Defeat A Terrorist Group?
As the sun went down on Friday, October 6,
Israelis began preparing for Shabbat. For some, their weekend plans were
not particularly restful; this would be the fortieth consecutive Saturday
on which thousands would take to the streets of Tel Aviv to Protest The Netanyahu Government.
Containing Russia should be conceptualized - and
celebrated - as a steady continuum of action that started before February
2022 and came into its own with the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv and
battlefield advances in the fall of 2022. Containment, by definition, can
deliver only a partial victory, and for this reason, ups and downs in
public sentiment in countries allied with Ukraine are to be expected. Like In The First
World War?
One of Netanyahu’s worst mistakes was to view the
Palestinian problem purely in security terms as if the politics behind the
conflict could be ignored. That, of course, led to the blind spot that
helped make the Hamas attacks so deadly. But as an IDF man, Gantz seems
likely to view the Palestinian problem in much the same way - as a security
threat to be contained rather than an acknowledgment of the Palestinian
right to self-determination. Why
Israel Won’t Change.
Fighting resumed
in Gaza early Friday local time after Hamas and Israel failed to announce an
agreement on extending the ceasefire before it expired.The big picture: The
renewed fighting comes after a seven-day
pause during which Hamas more than 100
hostages, including two Americans, and Israel released 240 Palestinians
from Israeli jails. Israel also allowed more aid trucks and fuel into Gaza
to help address the dire humanitarian crisis.
Russians are not ready to die for Putin. In 2018
and 2020, Putin’s ratings fell due to an unpopular decision to increase the
retirement age, and then because of the effects of the pandemic; it is
possible that other new hits to his popularity will occur in the coming
months. Indeed, in the mood of both the public and the elites, there is an
invisible yet discernible expectation of such events. For most, however,
the yearning is more basic. They desire to end “all this” - meaning getting
rid of war - as quickly as possible and begin to live better, more safely,
and more peacefully. But it is unlikely that this will happen without
regime change. Too Many European
Politicians Are Failing To Confront Russia.
Enter Napoleon:
The New Cold War? Like Soviet intelligence during
the last century, Chinese agencies are waging a persistent, integrated, and
asymmetric onslaught on Western countries. But
Where Is This Going?
U.N. Chief
Demands Immediate Cease-Fire in Gaza.
The Story How Hardeep Singh Nijjar Was Killed In Canada,
September 2023.
Amazing, in the open right in the Center of
Munich:
The State of The World in Focus - The
Israel-Palestine conflict is one of the most enduring and complex
geopolitical issues of modern times (for a more detailed description see 11
December above. Its ramifications go beyond the borders of Israel and
the Palestinian territories, influencing international policy, shaping
global alliances, and igniting passionate debates on human rights,
sovereignty, and justice. (See more on that above).
The United
Nations World Food Programme (WFP) says 36 percent of Gaza households are
now experiencing “severe hunger.” The
Future Of The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
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In the following in-depth research, we show how
the National Socialist leadership's preoccupation with the “Jewish
Bolshevik” peril stressing that this and worse would in Germany “occur
with the same methodicalness as in Russia” unless the Germans realized
that “one has to fight now if one wants to live.” Resistance to “Jewish
Bolshevism,” cast in terms of a life and death struggle, formed a central
tenet of the National Socialist ideology. As is evidenced, Hitler compared
German conditions with those in the Soviet Union, claiming that the Jews
were inciting the masses to the "final blow against the state" in
Germany, "like in Soviet Russia." A Life For The Tsar.
Even India's imperative to move from regional to
global power necessitates force projection capabilities on the maritime
front. For India, maritime security has become a more significant focus
since Beijing launched its so-called String of Pearls strategy – a push to
build military and commercial assets along the Indian Ocean. However, this
strategy has been largely unsuccessful, one reason Beijing has been trying
to keep India focused on its shared border in the Himalayas instead of its
southern flank. India’s Massive Military
Restructuring.
The incisive UN Arab Human Development reports
from the early years of this century warned that an Arab state system
lagging in human development and with all its other socioeconomic ills, was
unsustainable - foreshadowing the uprisings a few years later. Today,
however, the challenges have only grown worse. The Middle East now faces
the scars of war, the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid population growth,
widespread youth unemployment, and uncontrolled urbanization, not to
mention climate change and the nascent transition to clean energy. No
government in the region is currently capable of seriously confronting
these issues. Why a Spate Of Diplomatic
Deals Won’t End Conflict.
The Chinese economy’s affliction with economic
long COVID presents an opportunity for U.S. policymakers to
change strategy. Instead of trying to contain China’s growth at great cost
to their economy, American leaders can let Xi do their work for them and
position their country as a better alternative and a welcoming destination
for Chinese economic assets. The
End Of China’s Economic Miracle.
Germany’s new China strategy is an essential step
toward a more realistic assessment of Germany’s economic vulnerabilities as
it becomes dangerously exposed to disruptions caused by or emanating from
China. With its focus on financial risks and only secondary consideration
of hard security issues, it is in danger of being quickly overtaken in a
rapidly evolving geopolitical environment. Berlin’s Delicate Balance With Beijing.
Further, focused planning for how free markets
might be used against free countries will allow the United States and its
allies to prevent economic disruption better. As in traditional national
security, having a strategy is a far better deterrent than not being
prepared. How To Reduce The
Vulnerabilities That Free Markets Create.
Western policymakers need to bake potential
miscalculations into their analysis and commit to being open-minded, even
if doing so challenges their worldview. Leaders will frequently ignore
the advice given to them or overestimate their abilities and miscalculate
risks. In other words, leaders will only sometimes be guided by
level-headed rationalism, regardless of what outside observers think. It is
a mistake for intelligence analysts and policymakers to assume
otherwise. Why It’s So Hard To
Forecast Authoritarian Aggression.
Given the war’s current trajectory and that
Ukraine cannot be particular about NATO membership, its leaders may have to
accept what they deem unacceptable. How
To Keep The Country Safe Without NATO Membership.
As commented on four days ago, the perplexing
aftermath of the Wagner mutiny shows Putin is more vulnerable than ever.
And where Putin saw the invasion of Ukraine as an act of destiny,
fulfilling a historical script. Instead, the war has left Russia grasping
for certainties in an exceedingly uncertain world. The Dangers Of Russian Disorder.
The world has seen the devastation and tragedy of
dysfunctional migration systems. A safe, fair, and orderly migration policy
in the United States is starting to emerge; if it succeeds, it could serve
as an example of what might be possible elsewhere. The Formula For Managing Migration.
Calls for revolution and transformation have been
commonplace in the generations after World War II defense debate. They have
mostly not fared well in light of observed experience in that time. After a
year and a half of war in Ukraine, there is no reason to think they will be
proven right this time. Back In The
Ukraine Trenches.
The situation on
the island of Maui is catastrophic, with hundreds of deaths for sure. It
also deserves a mention of what formerly was a country, particularly the
Island of Hawaii and its capital Honolulu on Oahu. The True Story Of Hawaii.
Two years after
the Taliban takeover, Afghanistan Still
Threatens The Region And Beyond.
A little over two years ago, a by us personal
known reader (having done his due diligence) sent us an alarming detailed
expose about the misuse of Cryptocurrency as funding terrorism, the war In
Ukraine, laundered billions from Mexico's murderous drug
gangs, including an article about how someone by the name of Sam
Bankman-Fried was allegedly trying to run a crypto fueled Ponzi scheme.
Setting our team to work on it, we devised a five-part in-depth
investigation. Whereby during 2023, Crypto ransom attacks continued to
rise. Part One,
Part Two, Part Three, Part Four, Part Five.
One of the items mentioned about the widespread
crypto crime scene is the Sam Bankman-Fried was now sent to jail after his
bail was revoked. In court, Judge Kaplan said: "There is probable
cause to believe that the defendant has attempted to tamper with witnesses
at least twice."
Less than a week after several liquidity pools on
Curve Finance were exploited in a multi-million dollar scheme, the hacker
returned 4,820 alETH and 2,258 ETH to Alchemix, worth around $12.7 million.
An
Extensive Overview Of How Crypto-Currency Fraud Functions.
The development of robust AI systems is
inevitable, and people everywhere need to be prepared for what such
technologies will do to their communities and the broader world. Get Ready For Artificial Intelligence.
It is essential for countries to elucidate the
goals of collaboration and to articulate what the partnership needs to be
clarified. Security cooperation and contingency planning are not geared to
produce collective defense commitments, as with NATO. This message will
matter to the reception closer to the trilateral alignment received in
certain regions. How To Boost Cooperation.
The twenty-first century will throw up few
challenges as daunting or opportunities as promising as AI presents. In the
last century, policymakers began to build a global governance architecture
that, they hoped, would equal the tasks of the age. They must build a new
governance architecture to contain and harness this era's most formidable
and potentially defining force. There Is
No Time To Waste.
Russia is now home to a dizzying array of
nationalist movements, and it is hard to say what form Russian nationalism
will take after Putin. But if it takes a welcome form that focuses on
building solidarity and sharing power with Russia’s other nationalities, it
would offer a fleeting opportunity to address the core driver of Russia’s
recent aggression: the conflation of greatness with imperial ambitions. Russian Ethnonationalism Chauvinism.
Ötzi the Iceman, named after the valley in which
he was found, became world-famous because his body had been remarkably well
preserved by the intense cold, making him the oldest European mummified
human. Scientists began examining Ötzi, and soon a startling series of
discoveries emerged. A Sort Of 'Out Of
Africa.'
The two indictments this month, one federal and
one state, shore up the surprisingly fragile pillars of American
democracy. Americans and the world will be watching what comes next - the
pleas, the evidence, the defense, and the verdicts. Can America Protect The Peaceful Transfer Of Power?
To be clear, the Hawaii of today maintains a very
close relationship with Japan, including its yearly (briefly halted during
Covid) Festival of Pacific Arts & Culture, initially organized by
Japan. What we do here, however, is take a historical look at what was
envisioned as a self-sufficient bloc governed by the WWII Japanese
leadership. The Greater East Asia
Co-Prosperity Sphere, Part One Of Two.
Initially, Tomáš Masaryk introduced
Coudenhove-Kalergi(RCK) to Edvard Beneš, the Czechoslovak foreign minister,
who also supported the thrust of RCK’s argument. More importantly, Beneš
gave him a Czechoslovak diplomatic passport to facilitate his future travel
around the continent to propagate his political program of closer
integration. Like many Wilsonians, RCK had initially been enthusiastic
about the proposal to create the League of Nations. But, in the way it was
set up, he could see the problems that prevented it from working as
intended. He claimed it was ‘neither truly global nor European’. Bolshevik
Russia defeated Germany, for instance, and states from afar, such as
Argentina and Mexico, were not members. Even the United States had failed
to join because its Senate blocked ratification of its accession, a
dramatic first step along the road of American isolationism. Coudenhove-Kalergi And The Pan-Europa Movement.
Vladimir Putin Christmas Downer.
Russia Redux.
Taiwan Attack.
More Vital Than Ever.
Russia Expert Olde Samorodni
Predicts.
USA China.
Himalaya.
The Question Of Taiwan.
India's concern about the ruling party’s continued
ability to balance its need to leverage religion to maintain its unique
position in the Indian political landscape and govern what will soon be the
world’s largest nation. India’s Ruling
Party Is Losing Control.
Competition could see the United States and China
engage in a technology race that pushes the frontiers of human knowledge to
new heights and creates innovative solutions to transnational problems. It
could also mean the two rivals cultivate internally peaceful blocs of
like-minded states, using nonviolent means, including aid provision, to try
to win hearts and minds and expand their influence at the margins. This
rivalry is alright for the world and better than the great-power wars that
have characterized most modern history. Why America And China Will Be Enduring Rivals.
Yevgeny Prigozhin,
the head of the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group who launched a mutiny
against the Kremlin two months ago, is believed to have died along with
nine other people in a plane
crash in Russia on Wednesday.
In the end, the Wagner mutiny lasted less than 24
hours. But the toxic cocktail of jealousy, rivalry, and ambition that gave
rise to it has been months, if not years, in the making. Putin’s enemies
don’t die of natural causes. The Wagner
Paramilitary Group.
The Special Operations Executive In France And
Elsewhere.
All political transformation in Russia has come
from the top. It is possible that a new group of reformers could emerge
from among the moderate members of the existing elite - liberals who are
still serving in government or the civil service. This new group would have
to decide how radically they want to change the country. What It Will Take To Break Putinism’s Grip.
Reducing harmful pollution is the only way to avoid
the worst climate impacts. However, negotiators must expand the stage to
include adaptation and ensure these two approaches go together. The effects
of a changing climate are already here, devastating communities
worldwide. Preparing For A Future
Of Extreme Weather.
BRI debt will continue to impede debt-relief
efforts, undermining the economic health of indebted developing countries
and the effectiveness of the IMF. Only a reformed IMF can
reverse the damage - to developing countries and themselves. The Real Toll Of Beijing’s Belt And Road.
In Recently, a quiet revolution with significant
consequences for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs
has occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. The EU has already
proved capable of innovating and reinventing itself – Europe’s Geoeconomic Revolution.
Over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have
demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the
ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness. The
following way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality
and endurance is to ensure they know the West is prepared to support
them. The West Needs A Strategy
For After The Counteroffensive.
A quiet revolution with significant consequences
for transatlantic relations and international economic affairs has recently
occurred. Its success still hangs in the balance. How The EU Will Learn To Wield Its Power.
Today, we will dive into a subject when people
hoped to commute with death. Today, this claim is made by Theresa Caputo (a
known fraud) performing. There had, of course, been other mediums more
sophisticated than Caputo. A good case is the acclaimed H.P. Blavatsky,
who, given her time, used a degree system. The Secret
Doctrine And The Inner Group.
Tokyo Aims To
Counter Growing Chinese And North Korean Aggression.
Maintaining the status quo of the current global
order and resisting the democratization of its governance, as the systemic
leader the United States and its closest allies seem to be trying to do
(with China and Russia also resisting substantive changes to the UN
Security Council), will only heighten the impatience for serious reform. The World Outside The Great Powers.
Washington should now understand that Moscow is
geared up for a long war over the future of Ukraine and the international
order and will use global levers of power and influence to hurt Ukraine and
the West. The effects of Russia’s actions will not be trivial. Nor will the
Kremlin’s ruthlessness necessarily turn non-Western countries against
Russia. The sooner U.S. policymakers appreciate the global dimensions of
the war in Ukraine, the sooner they can engineer the failure of Russia’s
designs for Ukraine. Ukraine And Next.
Visiting the Sixtine Chapel in Rome:
In the 1950s, a psychologist named Bertram Forer
facilitated this experiment with students from his introductory to
psychology course. The text you rated earlier is very similar to the one
Forer used back then, inspired by newspaper astrology sections. He gave the
exact text to each of his students, telling them they were the results of a
personality test they had previously filled out and, therefore, very
personalized. When all the students received the text with their scores,
Forer asked them to raise their hands if they thought it had done an
excellent job of describing their personality. The students were baffled
when they saw that almost all hands were up. Forer then started to read one
of the texts out loud. The students laugh, realizing that all the texts are
the same. Forer now had proof of our faulty judgment and how easily we can
be fooled into approving pseudo-scientific descriptions or predictions
about ourselves. But
Astrology’s Politics Are More Complicated Than Any Simple Link To Left Or
Right.
Adversaries would
recognize that they cannot simply hold out and hope U.S. policymakers
change their minds. Echoing William Jennings Bryan’s three presidential
defeats a century ago, Trump’s third popular vote loss in 2024 would signal
that isolationist and populist sentiments in the United States are trending
toward remission and Bracing For Trump 2.0.
Today, the mood in the Islamic Republic, compared
with just a year ago, is triumphant. Khamenei’s republic has survived sanctions
and internal protests. With the help of its great-power allies, it has
steadied its economy and started to replenish its defenses. A nuclear bomb
is within reach. When the supreme leader decides to cross that threshold, there
is little reason to believe that Israel or the United States intends to
stop him with force. Iran’s New Patrons.
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Ukraine will need patience from its partners as it
tries to wear down its enemy. The West will need to recalibrate its
expectations to match reality, which is that this is a war of attrition. In
the near term, NATO states must continue transferring weapons and other
capabilities to Ukraine. They will also need to give Kyiv political and
military support for the long term. What
Ukraine Needs Right Now Is Time.
The South China Sea is undoubtedly one of the
world's most strategically and economically essential waterways with
militarized implications. The biggest concern about China’s
military expansion is how it ties into plans to annex Taiwan. The Trouble With The South China Sea.
This creative model emanates from an African-led
institution and could set a compelling precedent for other development
banks and policymakers worldwide. By emphasizing collaborations like these,
the next time a pandemic threatens the world, more countries will be ready
to respond and rebuild. That would benefit not just the global North or
South - it would be a win for everyone. New
Resentment How Rich Countries’ Selfish Pandemic Responses Stoked Distrust.
China spent $2.2
trillion on fossil fuel subsidies last year, several times more than the
following country, the United States ($760 billion). Notably, despite the
costs of its war in Ukraine, Russia spent $420 billion. China, the U.S.,
Russia, India, and the European Union accounted for 57 percent of all
fossil fuel subsidies.
By recognizing and ignoring Russian
propaganda and instead studying and identifying the actual vulnerabilities
of Russia’s military, the United States and its allies may be able to
develop new and better approaches that could allow them to help Ukraine
prevail and hasten the end of the war, just as the United States did with
the Soviets’ war in Afghanistan. What
The West Still Gets Wrong About Russia’s Military.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his
entire delegation have been forced to extend their stay in New Delhi for
the G20 summit by an extra day after his aircraft broke down, Canadian
officials confirmed. This happened after Prime Minister Narendra Modi
conveyed to Trudeau strong concerns about anti-India elements promoting
secessionism from Canadian soil and inciting violence against diplomats.
Technology is
political. At times, this subtle but omnipresent politicization is nearly
invisible. It shouldn’t be. Social media is the most recent reminder that
technology and political organization cannot be divorced. States and
technologies are intimately tied together. The
Ramifications Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Part One.
The containment of Russia and the preservation of
Ukrainian sovereignty are first-order Western interests. They should not
depend on images of horrific violence, constant media attention, or the
charisma of any Ukrainian politician. Western indifference and impatience
are Putin’s ultimate weapons in this war. Without them, he faces a
strategic dead end. Will The West
Abandon Ukraine?
Universities can build bridges through education, research,
and joint problem-solving. Because they employ the shared common language
of science and scholarship, they are sometimes the only institutions still
able to build those bridges when dialogue seems impossible. Why Academic Links Are Essential In A Fragmenting
World.
The lack of escalation in Ukraine serves as a
reminder that in limited wars, patience is a virtue. A go-slow approach has
allowed NATO countries to provide a level of military support that was
unthinkable at the war’s start. The risks of escalation have not been
overblown. Instead, gradualism has allowed the West to learn - and, in some
ways, stretch - the limits of the war. The Missing Escalation In Ukraine.
If China’s economic woes worsen, its leaders will
probably become more sensitive to perceived external challenges, especially
on issues like Taiwan. Increased pressure on China could easily backfire
and motivate Beijing to become more aggressive to demonstrate its resolve
to other states despite its internal difficulties. More Likely To React To External Threats.
While Putin and Kim Jong Un's meeting will prompt talk
of a new authoritarian axis in northeast Asia, there’s little to suggest
that this relationship's recent surge has deeper foundations than each
country’s immediate strategic interests. Moscow may seek to revise the
global order in its favor, but enlisting North Korea as a partner in that
endeavor will be of limited use. What
Putin And Kim Want From Each Other.
Brought about by the inexorable rise
of Artificial intelligence and the end of nations, a crisis will
take the form of a vast, existential-level bind, a set of brutal choices
and trade-offs representing the most crucial dilemma of the twenty-first
century. The Ramifications Of Artificial
Intelligence (AI) Part Two.
The arrival of the Spanish caused a massive
demographic collapse in the population centers of the New World,
particularly in greater Mexico and more so in Peru. A century later, the
arrival of the French and the English caused similar population collapses
on the East Coast of North America, which gradually spread west across the
continent. The Spanish administration of Hispaniola and other Caribbean
islands proved an unmitigated disaster for the Indians of the region, as
these were subjected to forced labor, forced relocation, wanton cruelty,
and even enslavement at the hands of ill-governed adventurers. The Spanish
conquest of the Aztecs and the Incas was a civilizational disaster that
permanently derailed the autonomous development of New World culture. In
the Spanish conquest of Mexico, one hundred thousand died from the direct
consequences of war, and the actual number might have been double or triple
this amount. The Truth About European
Colonialism In The New World.
Claims by the former Brazilian president’s
ex-secretary prompt calls for alleged right-wing conspirators to be brought
to justice. A former Bolsonaro aide said in plea bargain testimony that the
then-president talked with the commanders of Brazil's army, navy, and air
force about overthrowing the results of last year's election won by Lula. Bolsonaro Redux.
In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant created the Department
of Justice to counter the terrorism carried out by the Ku Klux Klan and
other violent groups active in Southern states. But a new domestic
terrorism law seems a small step by comparison, and it would send a
resounding message: there is no place for political violence in a
democracy. White Supremacist
Terrorism.
Cantonese and non-Mandarin languages in China,
writ large, have lost a strong advocate, and others who seek to promote
language rights will become wary of doing so. And the effects of this
chilling of speech are wide-reaching. Beijing
Seeks To Extend The Hegemony Of Mandarin.
Both political parties deserve credit for this
paradigm shift in trade policy and for the USMCA, which is already doing so
much for the United States. The key now is to hold steady, mindful that
powerful interests at home and overseas will diligently seek to undermine
the agreement. Washington must be equally diligent in sticking to its new
course on trade. The
New American Way Of Trade How The USMCA Does What NAFTA Couldn’t.
The EU’s most challenging is also
consequential. Russia is threatening the peace and stability of Europe, and
bringing Moldova and Ukraine into the EU is critical to strengthening the
continent’s east. That, in turn, will protect Europe as a whole. The Promise And Peril Of EU Expansion.
Xi and Putin, cocooned by yes men, have already
made serious errors that have cost their countries dearly. In the long run,
they have damaged their countries. However, they remain a danger that the
United States must face for the foreseeable future. Even in the best of
worlds - one in which the U.S. government had a supportive public,
energized leaders, and a coherent strategy - these adversaries would pose a
formidable challenge. But the domestic scene today is far
fromorderly. Explaining
America’s Global Role.
Six young people from areas in Portugal ravaged by
wildfires and heatwaves took
32 European governments to court on Wednesday, arguing Their Failure To Act Fast Enough On Climate Change
Violates Their Human Rights.
What A Saudi-Israeli Deal Could Mean For The
Palestinians.
Enemy of the Reich: The Noor Inayat Khan Story.
Amid a growing outcry over women’s rights abuses
in Iran, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded jailed Iranian activist
Narges Mohammadi the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. What Narges Mohammadi’s Nobel Means For Iran.
While Washington has been reaching out, the
ball is now in Beijing’s court. Rejecting such dialogues and merely
continuing to beef up the PLA risks undermining the security that Beijing
seeks. Will Xi’s Military
Modernization Pay Off?
On Saturday, barrages of rockets were fired from
the blockaded Gaza Strip. The armed wing of Palestinian group Hamas said it
was behind the fire, claiming its militants had launched more than 5,000
rockets. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.
Regardless, a proper
understanding of Russia's threat must begin with an accurate appraisal of
Russian power. Putin might harbor fantasies of world conquest. But at the
moment, his military cannot fully conquer any of the four Ukrainian
provinces he claims to have annexed last year. Ultimately, those are the
constraints that should bind the debate about the extent of the threat. What Does Putin Want?
Media in Israel, citing rescue service officials,
said at least 300 Israelis were killed, including 26 soldiers, and more
than 1,800 wounded. An update on Israeli figures was expected on Sunday.
The Israeli military said a “substantial” number of civilians and soldiers
were being held hostage in Gaza. Footage circulating on social media
showed terrified captives, including mothers huddling with their children,
in the custody of Palestinian militant groups:
Below is a
destroyed police station that was overrun by Hamas militants in Sderot,
Israel:
The Palestinian group Hamas carried out a surprise
attack on Israel on an unprecedented scale.
At least four
civilians were killed while in the custody of Hamas, just feet from where
armed militants had been escorting them near the Gaza border, videos
obtained and geolocated show. The Why And How Of The Surprise Attack On Israel.
Iran played a role in helping plot the latest
round of Hamas attacks. Like its Hezbollah proxy, Iran sees Israel as
fundamentally illegitimate. It may seek to disrupt regional trends, such as
potential Saudi-Israel normalization (which Tehran sees, with considerable
justification, as designed to counter Iran), by promoting anti-Israel
violence. Hezbollah, Israel, And
Tehran.
A Palestinian man
taking a selfie next to a burning Israeli tank:
Today, we are tracing the origins of the current
situation in Gaza and Israel. Gaza Redux
Part One.
As tensions in the Middle East boil over,
great-power competition - classically understood - cannot be the world’s
sole focal point and means of analysis. This is not an era of strengthening
international order. It is not merely another era of great-power
competition. It is a moment of anarchically fragmenting power, an age of
great-power distraction. Crises In The
Middle East.
How The Conflict In The Middle East
Came About P.1.
The scenes unfolding in Israel and Gaza mark a new
chapter in the Middle East conflict. Today’s great powers, China,
Europe, Russia, and the United States, will undoubtedly have a role to play
in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Whether any of these powers will
be able to resolve or contain that conflict is far less specific. Hamas Rise To Power.
The main reason
this is happening now is the prospect of the U.S.-Saudi-Israeli deal. Hamas
understands this is a huge transformative event, and they are trying to
create a circumstance where it will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to do it
right. Nevertheless, it is time to stop Israel from creating a
disaster. Time To Step Back From The
Brink.
The next stage is coming’: Israel issues warning
as residents flee Gaza assault US urges restraint amid bombing of civilian
evacuation convoy that left a reported 70 people dead, including women and
children.
Further to our
article from yesterday, the U.S. needs to have conversations with Israel
that only the United States, Israel’s closest partner, can have. As
significant a threat as the proposed judicial reform was (and is) to
Israel’s democracy, events of the past week have revealed that an
unresolved Palestinian issue poses a far greater one. Why Washington Should Restrain
Israeli Military Action In Gaza.
We take a more comprehensive approach to follow up
on our previous article. Only a genuinely unified political leadership
will fortify Israel’s democracy for the complex military operations ahead,
giving it the domestic mandate necessary to build a winning strategy and
end Hamas for good. A Strategy Beyond
Revenge.
Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin
Netanyahu welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden as he visits Israel amid the
ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel.
Saudi Arabia becomes critical to the success of
the transfer of Gaza from Israeli control to the UN and the subsequent
consolidation of the Palestinian Authority’s hold over both the West Bank
and Gaza. Many hurdles stand in the way of such an arrangement coming to
pass. But one purpose of diplomacy is to probe intentions and spur the
consideration of a wider range of options in a contingency. This is what
the moment requires. The alternative is Gaza as an eternal dystopia, with
violence metastasizing around the broader region and states less able to
deal with social and environmental disarray. Return The Gaza Strip To Palestinians.
While President El-Sisi and U.S. President Biden
agreed on the Delivery of Humanitarian Aid to Gaza, today, British Prime
Minster Sunak arrives in Tel Aviv. The Israeli military says it ‘destroyed
hundreds of Hamas terrorist’ sites; British PM expected to ask that Britons
in Gaza be allowed to leave. Following Biden's recent speech, the U.S. also
must reinvent itself to get economic security right in a highly
interdependent world marked by great-power severe competition. The Israeli/Hamas Conundrum.
As we show in this article, the situation on the
ground of the Israel-Hamas war is fluid, and changes to the strategic
calculus in Israel, Iran, or both countries may lead their leaders to
believe that avoiding wider conflict poses a greater danger to their
survival than confronting one another in war. Escalation Could Set Israel And Iran On A Collision
Course.
In the center of Munich, Daniil Trifonov playing
Beethoven's Piano Concerto No 5.:
It seems Erdogan is once again ready to burn
bridges with Israel, even though in early 2022, he had begun an attempt to
normalize Turkey’s relationship with the country, hosting Israeli President
Isaac Herzog and once again exchanging ambassadors. In doing so, Erdogan
hoped to break Ankara from its relative state of isolation in the region
and win over pro-Israel figures in Washington so that the U.S. Congress
would look more favorably upon Ankara and remove its strong objections to
selling Turkey weapons: Erdogan And The Hamas-Israel War.
Yom Kippur War. Misinformation About The Israel-Hamas War Is
Flooding Social Media.
A ground assault
into Gaza is likely, with dire consequences. But as every soldier knows, it
may still be necessary and start very soon. Israel
Enter Gaza Imminent.
It is impossible to know for sure how an enemy
will react in war, primarily because leaders are incentivized to
misrepresent their actual redlines. Fighting nuclear-armed adversaries is a
dangerous game of brinkmanship. The Return
Of Nuclear Escalation.
In the immediate term, Israeli and especially U.S.
leaders need to secure the safety of Gazan civilians, 1.4
million of whom have already been displaced.
The United States should partner with the United Nations to create clear
humanitarian corridors and protected zones. What
To Do About Gaza, And What Gazans Think.
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The importance
and distinctiveness of the evolution of Western European right-wing
populism become particularly clear when compared with comparable
developments in the United States. The election of Donald Trump in
2016 turbocharged these trends. How To
Understand Extreme Right-Wing Parties.
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According to the Russian constitution, this is Putin’s last term in
office, and he is obliged to step down in 2024, but will he? And what
drives Putin? Several lessons have become clear in the two decades
that have seen the rise of Putin. Putin's
Challenge To The West.
The evening picture underneath was taken on Russian National
day 12 June 2022. Whereby as we will see in the following article the
reality is that Russia can’t avoid trying to reassert power, and the West
can’t avoid trying to resist. But in the end, Russia can’t win. Russia was
and remains a country of constant crises and constant wars, while the
primary motivation to think about the future stemmed from the economic
crises of 1998 and 2008–2009. Putin’s strategy has enabled Russia to
reappear on the world stage in unanticipated ways that will continue to
challenge the world. Whereby It is also important to remember that the
Kremlin does not speak for all Russian citizens.The Putin Challenge.
Putin has repeatedly accused Ukraine of occupying ancestral Russian
lands and blamed the early Bolsheviks for bungling the border between the
Russian and Ukrainian Soviet republics. Mutual hostility will not
subside because there are conflicting geopolitical interests, and both
sides are raising the stakes. The Why Of
The Road To War.
Analysts today fear that Ukraine could be losing the upper hand in
the Donbas, leaving it vulnerable to being wholly seized by Russia. As
reported widely the last bridge to the city of Sievierodonetsk fell as
street battles raged, and some Western officials questioned Ukraine’s
ability to keep resisting the Russian onslaught and if we are looking at a
frozen conflict that could last a long time. Today US Secretary of
Defense Lloyd Austin is poised to lead a working group of nearly 50
countries to discuss the crisis. Ukraine receives only 10% of the
weapons that it requested from the West, says Defence Min. Why Kyiv Needs An Immediate Solution.
Pictured below, taking weeks to organize, the leaders of
Germany, France, and Italy, arrived in Kyiv today.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops holed up alongside civilians in a
Sievierodonetsk chemical plant ignored a Russian ultimatum to lay down their
arms, Why Ukraine
Reached A Pivotal Moment.
As we will show that the Russia sanctions don’t have the
desired effect shouldn’t be a surprise, it is quite unrealistic to expect
that economic sanctions against a great power-and that would be Russia
today-will substantially deter a policy course that the leadership has set
upon. Why Do Russian
Sanctions Persist As A Tool Of Diplomacy?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared the end of "the
era of the unipolar world" in a combative speech that lambasted
Western countries at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on
Friday. Meanwhile, the UK will not yield to 'Ukraine fatigue, says PM on
return from Kyiv. The latter referred to potential fatigue which is
what our today's article is about. Why Putin's
Path To Negotiate Lies Through Battleground Defeats.
Taiwan was never involved with the Chinese tributary system;
neither were the Chinese to any significant degree living in Taiwan until
the Dutch imported them as laborers. But if the intractable issues could
spark a hot war between the United States and China, Taiwan is at the top
of the list. Geopolitical
Consequences Of Taiwan War.
Weaponed with a map showing the proposed Nord Stream 2 gas
pipeline, Russian artillery doctrines are frozen in time but part of a
tradition emphasizing great firepower and technological innovation that is
centuries-old and informed by experience in Russia’s recent wars. The Russian Army Is Facing A Long, Grim Fight.
The Glastonbury festival may be little known by attendees
like Greta Thunberg or today's Diana Ross; for many true
believers it involves the Celtic revival and the H.Grail. The Hidden History Of The Glastonbury Festival.
This week's Nato summit in Madrid comes at a critical time in the
alliance's 73-year history. On the eve of the summit in Madrid, Nato
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced what he called "a
fundamental shift in the alliance's deterrence and defense",
strengthening its defenses on its eastern borders and raising its rapid
response force to more than 300,000 troops. A Global Cold War.
Western allies vowed on Tuesday (28 June) to
boost Nato’s defenses and back Ukraine to the end as Moscow
demanded Kyiv’s surrender. And clearly, Russia’s assault on Ukraine has
shaken the Western public out of their complacency. A Need To Build A Better World Order.
Pictured below the EU flag is been brought to the plenary hall of Ukraine's
parliament. To permanently stay adjacent to the Ukraine flag in front.
According to Putin, the war could last long. Following
the NATO meeting on June 30, they would stick with Ukraine as long as
it takes. The Key To Victory In
Ukraine.
Evidenced by the
Russian book market already since 2015 prepared Russians for a full-scale
war against Ukraine, NATO, and the West, and promoted Stalinism and nazism,
and how this was ignored by the West.
The invasion of
Ukraine has not only accelerated that country’s departure from Russia’s
sphere of influence, it also seems to have other post-Soviet countries
warily eyeing the exit. This Is Not A
Victory.
Putin is
overconfident. He has surrounded himself with yes men, and that’s one
problem when it comes to convincing him the cost for Russia is too high.
The other problem is that he views his soldiers as just another massive
horde of serfs that can be sacrificed. Major losses don’t deter him, not
yet, anyway. In order to be deterred, he needs to have some empathy for his
own people. He Has None.
The road to a
cease-fire in Ukraine is full of pitfalls. There are Ukraine’s
Implausible theories of victory and the fantasy of Russian defeat. The
Case For Diplomacy.
European Union
leaders have expressed interest in investing in Libyan energy
infrastructure to reduce dependence on Russian gas. However, Wagner’s
presence positions the Kremlin as a spoiler in these future calculations. Why Libya Could Be Putin’s, Trump Card.
Putin’s
persistent implicit threats of nuclear escalation are designed to leverage
Western fears of the war in Ukraine. Such worries have damaged, delaying
the delivery of offensive weapons to Ukraine. Putin is not facing the
threat of being cornered in Ukraine. The domestic cohorts Putin faces
in this war Putin is not facing the threat of being cornered in
Ukraine. Western Fears Of Putin.
Underneath a
Ukrainian grain field, pierced by thousands of Russian artillery shells.
Russian war on Ukraine is an attempt to erase the whole nation.
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The persistent inability of states and markets to
resolve concerns about labor, equity, environmental degradation, and the
corporate abuse of power. With calls for "deglobalization"
advancing, the arrangement could encourage a new, more sustainable model of
globalization, one that doesn't sacrifice the common good on the altar of
the market. Fighting Climate Change
Through Trade.
Since the war in
Ukraine began, Putin’s rapidly growing security state seems closer to its
Stalinist predecessor. The militarization of the Federal Security
Service (FSB), previously the KGB, its recruitment camps, and increasingly
open and brutal tactics suggest that Putin is looking more closely at
the People's Commissariat for Internal Affairs (NKVD). A totalitarian
state forged this agency in wartime. The Kremlin is priming the country for
the prolonged war. Russias Fifth
Service.
Aleksandr
Viktorovich Ionov (who officials say was working
for what previously was called the KGB, now the Federal Security
Service FSB) was charged over accusations that he orchestrated a yearslong
effort to puppeteer political groups in Florida, Georgia, and California to
sow discord in the US spread pro-Russia propaganda and meddling in American
elections.
There was talk
that Russia is opening the Black Sea for Ukrainian ships and, in exchange,
restrictions on Russian grain exports are being lifted, yet the agreement
won’t last long.
When the Chinese
Communist Party meets, Xi will be coronated as the “People’s Leader” - a
title held only by Mao Zedong and his successor, Hua Guofeng. A
strengthened Xi is not going to be more moderate. He will have less to
prove to his domestic audience. But he will have all the power and the
opportunity he needs to pursue his “China Dream.” Xi
Unleased.
The
following article is about US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy
Pelosi, who recently went to Ukraine, met with Zelenski, and is now going
to Taiwan. China, however, is protesting the visit and today is holding
live-fire military drills in the Taiwan Strait with live
ammunition. President Biden took a strong stance stating the USA would
intervene with the military to defend Taiwan against China's dramatically
increasing military activity. Whereby he changed his course with the
Biden administration working behind the scenes to convince Pelosi of
traveling to Taiwan to not insult China. What
Is Happening Here?
The Ukrainian military
has conceded that Russian forces have been able to make small gains near
the Donetsk towns of Soledar and Vershyna in eastern Ukraine. Thus war
appears static, but it can change at any moment. When battles become
static, changing the shape of the playing field becomes essential. The
Americans and Russians are engaged in flanking maneuvers that could change
the shape of the battlefield. This Will Put
One Side At A Disadvantage.
The invasion of
Ukraine caught many analysts of Russia off guard. Russian President
Vladimir Putin had long been thought of as rough, tough, and brutal - but
also calculating and cautious. The wild and reckless Ukrainian adventure
seemed out of character. But Putin’s personal history reveals that his
decision to go to war is entirely in character - and that he will likely
continue it indefinitely. Convicted
For The Usurpation Of Power.
The
world is witnessing its first economic war of the modern era. The war
in Ukraine, spiraling inflation, and the climate emergency are affecting
food security. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is
complex. The Global Effects Going Forward.
So far as can be
seen on the following map, in one day in the South, Ukraine has taken
more territory than Russia took in the first five weeks of the Battle of
Donbas:
The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of
unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will
shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory
could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and
the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may
mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian
Empire. Putin’s Entire Ukraine Invasion
Hinges On The Coming Battle Of Kherson.
As the old order
disintegrates and the new one struggles to be born, the advantage lies with
states that clearly understand the balance of forces and conceive of a
future cooperative order that serves the common good. Nor is the
rapidly shifting balance of power likely to provide the basis for a stable
order for some time. Instead, the authorities will probably muddle along
from crisis to crisis as their dissatisfaction with the international
system and with one another grows, in the form of motion without movement. Nobody Wants The Current World Order.
Taiwan is a central point in the first island
chain near China:
U.S. House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan sparked outrage in China,
which responded by flexing its muscles through some not-at-all subtle
military exercises. The two critical questions are why Pelosi went to the
island first and why Beijing cared enough to deploy its fleet. China Could Invade Taiwan.
The
Kremlin has prepared to confront the West and its socio-economic model for
decades. Yet the need to recruit foreign troops indicates a failure of
Russian commanders, a weakness in training and motivating troops, and
logistical problems. Europe is a great power if it sticks together
militarily and economically. It is doing that now, but old tensions will
emerge as fear of Russia dissipates. China is still a great power, albeit
with an untested military and a troubled economy. When The Economic Recovery Comes.
On
February 21, 2022, Vladimir Putin delivered a 56-minute televised national
address where he contested Ukrainian statehood and argued that the
government in Kyiv owes its territory today to the supposed generosity of
the Bolsheviks, notably Vladimir Lenin. Historian Victoria Smolkin
assesses Putin’s claim that modern-day Ukraine is a ‘gift’ from the
Bolsheviks. Fantasy Is Not History.
In November, the global population is expected to
reach 8 billion before climbing to 9.7 billion in 2050. India will also
soon surpass China as the most populous country. Global population growth,
however, is slowing. Two-thirds of the population shows lifetime fertility
below the 2.1 mark per woman needed to support population growth. That
said, longer life spans also contribute to global population growth. There
are roughly 771 million people over 65, triple the number in 1980. This
figure is expected to grow in the years ahead, particularly in East Asia,
Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America.
The Rajapaksas practically owned Sri Lanka:
And then happened this:
 
China won Sri
Lanka’s earlier trust because of its willingness to lend money to countries
shunned by the international community for their poor human rights records.
Indeed, their relationship strengthened after allegations emerged in Sri
Lanka of state-sponsored human rights abuses. China’s Motivations.
How Russia is
plundering gold in Sudan to boost Putin's war effort in Ukraine. The group
has been repeatedly accused of war crimes and human rights
abuses. Despite its global reach, much of the group's inner workings have
remained a secret to the outside world - Putin's
Private Army.
The following map
shows how human actions are affecting outbreak risks, sometimes in
surprising places, which could be a valuable tool in preventing the next
pandemic.
Managing Soviet
and later Russian threats did not have to come at the expense of engagement
with the republics. Washington could have pur Russia’s objectives at the
same time, adapting to the Soviet Union’s decline while also hedging
against future Russian irredentism by supporting self-determination in the
emerging post-Soviet states. Russia’s
Security Concerns And Allay Its Anxieties.
Tokyo has recently begun to focus on its military
capabilities
We simply do not
know whether China will attack Taiwan in this decade. But it is a
reasonable presumption that Beijing is much more likely to strike if it
concludes it would succeed. Significant factors indicate that it may judge
this decade to be the most propitious one. Facing
A Window Of Vulnerability Over Taiwan.
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We
are mapping the world’s urban population, on the left, the year 2018 on the
right is 2050.
 
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