By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

What Made Taiwan Understand How Perilous This Situation Is

Today China mounts large-scale joint strike drills around Taiwan, sending 28 warplanes and naval ships to the island days after a US Navy destroyer went through the Strait But the war would leave China’s navy in shambles and tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers and prisoners of war.

Taiwan’s local elections shocked the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as it experienced its worst performance ever and ended up with control of only five of Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities. The defeat was even more damning, considering that President Tsai Ing-wen had highlighted China as a threat and urged the public to vote for the DPP to send the world a message. It was a line that helped Tsai win two presidential elections in a row—but the problem with making every election a referendum on Beijing is that eventually, the public gets numbed, especially when the party itself doesn’t seem to be taking defense as seriously as it should.

Unfortunately, many Taiwanese still don’t seem to grasp how perilous their situation is. An August poll, taken after menacing Chinese military drills in response to then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan, found that only 39 percent of Taiwanese adults said war was very or somewhat likely, while 53 percent said it is not very possible or doubtful. Taiwan is starting to wake from its slumber — but some people still prefer to hit the snooze button.

Their attitude reminds me of many Ukrainians, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, who denied right up until the last moment that Russians would invade. While the Ukrainians have proved themselves to be stout and skilled defenders, they failed to deter an aggressor and thus to avert a war that is now ravaging their country. That is a mistake Taiwan must not make. Taipei has made a good start toward rebuilding its defenses, which atrophied after the end of martial law and the Cold War in the 1990s, but it still has a long way to go — and not much time to get there.

But the war that everybody knows will come would leave China’s navy in shambles and tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers and prisoners of war.

Some have argued that the DPP’s defeat was a repudiation of its China stance, while others have pointed out that local elections mainly cover domestic issues. There is truth in both arguments, but what is clear is that the results exposed severe problems with Tsai and the DPP. Tsai has been eager to confront China but has avoided taking on the domestic costs of hardening Taiwan’s defenses. This contradiction has come back to bite her.

The main opposition Kuomintang (KMT), already held most cities and counties from the previous elections in 2018. Still, the DPP did not expect to get blanked in the economically and demographically vital north, losing all of its existing city mayoralties and the central and east.

In an attempt to galvanize voters, Tsai gave a speech at a large rally just two days before the election, highlighting the threat of China and urging the public to vote for her party to “stand up for Taiwan.” Hundreds of DPP candidates signed a pledge to “resist China” and “never surrender.” But in the end, the KMT won big.

Tsai’s “protect Taiwan, resist China” position was successful in the past, but it failed this time. Surveys show that the Taiwanese are still deeply worried about China and have overwhelmingly negative feelings about Beijing. Apathy drove the results, not a sudden love or lack of concern about the mainland. And that widespread public apathy, even resignation, about national defense stems from the DPP government’s colossal discrepancy.

Since coming to power in 2016, Tsai has refused to agree to the 1992 Consensus, which China’s government sees as necessary for any talks. As a result, there have been no official high-level interactions between the two sides in the past seven years. During this time, China has warned Taiwan against seeking “independence” while increasing its military buildup and activity. Tsai has responded by striking a defiant tone and speaking out against China, as have her cabinet officials. Taiwan has also increased military orders from the United States while welcoming visits from U.S., Japanese, and European politicians.

However, Taiwan’s government has been reluctant to inform the public about the seriousness of tensions, such as the possibility of war and the preparation and sacrifices that people would need to make. They talk about China as an enemy but don’t discuss the case of war and the gifts the public would need to make. Until recently, the government had also failed to make preparations such as carrying out civilian defense training or extending the four-month conscription.

The government has been unable to resolve long-standing problems in the military with logistics, training, and manpower, such as shortages in pilot retention and troop recruitment. A big part of this is an expectation that the United States would intervene quickly to help Taiwan in case of war with China. But that has caused much of the Taiwanese public to view a fight with China either as an inevitable defeat or a U.S.-carried victory—not as something they can get involved in themselves.

To some degree, Ukraine changed that, with some Taiwanese voluntarily signing up for defense classes. However, the government has been slow to act. Although it extended reservist training from one week to two earlier in 2022, it was only a trial for 15,000 reservists, meaning the majority of reservists last year, more than 95,000, still underwent one week of training. In 2023, the two-week exercise will be applied to 22,000 reservists but not to the other 97,000 reservists who will still do one week.

The government also announced on Dec. 27, 2022, that it would extend conscription for young males from the current four months, which has been widely derided as useless, to one year. However, this will only start in 2024 and only for men born in 2005 and after, meaning that all men over 19 who do their conscription in 2024 will still do just four months. The government had been talking about this since at least March of last year after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. Still, the authorities dragged their feet in announcing by waiting to do it at the “end of the year,” presumably to avoid upsetting voters before the Nov. 26 local elections.

National politics are shaped by national identity and how to deal with China, and the DPP currently has a significant structural advantage. However, there is no Taiwanese or Chinese way to pave a road or subsidize false teeth, so the KMT is not necessarily disadvantaged in local politics.

Because of the KMT wave in 2018 (which was powered by Tsai’s awful approval ratings), half of the races featured a KMT incumbent running for re-election, most in either a DPP-leaning or a toss-up area. Incumbents usually win re-election, and almost all of this cohort had high approval ratings. The open seats were primarily fought in cities and counties that historically lean toward the KMT. While it is surprising that the KMT won so many contests, no single outcome was particularly unexpected.

If this outcome was not anomalous, neither did it mark a shift. Neither side has a structural advantage in local government, so there is no reason to think that the KMT will do so well in the future when it does not have a bevy of popular incumbents or such a good map for open seats.

 

What Does The Election Of Chiang Wan-An (Also Known As Wayne Chiang) As The New Mayor Of Taipei Portends For The KMT’s Strategic Positioning In National Politics?

China is inevitably an important topic in national elections, and the KMT has painted itself into a corner on this issue. The KMT is still stuck with the electorally unviable 1992 Consensus (one China, each side with its interpretation) as the cornerstone of how to deal with China. The PRC insists that the 1992 Consensus is simply one China (the PRC), so the DPP is now seen as the party defending the status quo.

The KMT has proven unwilling or unable to move to a new position through internal party mechanisms. Suppose it is to adopt a new, more electorally competitive stance. In that case, it will have to be dragged there by a party member running in general elections and appealing to the median voter. Chiang is one of only a few KMT figures with the potential to do this.

It is unclear whether Chiang has the desire, vision, charisma, or guts to take on such a challenge. Thus far, his political career has been marked more by amiably going along with the party mainstream than boldly demanding others follow his lead. However, as mayor of the capital, he will eventually have to take a stance on how to deal with China. How Chiang handles this – as well as how well he handles all the more mundane tasks of city government – will determine whether or not his election marks a significant milestone for the KMT or whether he is merely another forgettable local politician.

 

Is President Tsai Now A Lame Duck? Is The DPP Transitioning Into A Post-Tsai Era?

Yes and no. Tsai is no longer the party chair, so she will be far less able to tamp down party infighting, influence nominations, or invoke party discipline to pass controversial items. She will also be less active in domestic policy matters. Vice President William Lai will almost certainly take over as DPP chair and is the most likely person to win the next presidential election, so that power will gravitate toward him over the next few months.

That said, Tsai will still exercise all the powers of the presidency until May 2024, and her approval ratings remain respectable. She will continue to be influential, especially in foreign affairs, cross-strait policy, military affairs, and national security. More abstractly, her grand vision – diversifying the economy away from a reliance on China, positioning Taiwan as a member of the international community of democracies, strengthening military capacity and cooperation, and defending the status quo – continues to enjoy broad support within the DPP and the general public. Tsai may be nearing the end of her tenure, but her ideas continue to motivate the party and the country.

 

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