By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Comment By Adam Tooze

AT: As recently as the beginning of the year, I think conventional opinion in Europe, indeed Western Europe, would have laughed at the idea that Ukraine was imminently going to be invited to join the [European Union] or begin the process of applying for and qualifying for EU membership. But that’s precisely what happened in the first six months of 2022. It’s staggering also from a deeper historical perspective in that Ukraine has been involved in long-running conflicts, not just with Russia but, of course, with its other neighbors, most notably Poland, with which it fought a war shortly after World War I. Modern Poland and modern Ukraine are made out of the redistribution of territory, which both sides have argued over. And one of the effects of the war is to have actually forged a remarkable alliance between Polish parties of all stripes and Ukraine. And what unifies them is an anti-Russian stance. So really in the space of 12 months, the entire question has been turned on its head such that now bien-pensant opinion in the EU is quite firmly committed to not just treating Ukraine accession as serious but Georgia potentially as well. The Balkans are also embarking on, remarkably, an entire second wave of Eastern expansion of the EU.

And you can’t do that without contemplating the question you pose, which is how one imagines reconciling the politics of Eastern Europe with the political culture of the rest of Europe. And I think the answer of those pushing hard for this expansionary agenda is they aim to change the political culture of the EU. Could you square it with the old Franco-German axis and the remarkably condescending comments you would get from the Germans and the French about the old and the new Europe?  It involves the mobilization, at the very least, of hundreds of billions of euros. The challenge is gigantic.

Once this happens, though, it changes the balance of the EU. Because between them, Poland and Ukraine would have the same voting share as Germany. The consequence of this going forward: We’ve stumbled into a truly dramatic reconceptualization. So much has happened quickly this year that historical shifts have just shot past without anyone pausing to consider what’s going on. When [German Chancellor] Olaf Scholz gave his speech in Prague in the fall, he took a position that would have been unthinkable a year ago, namely that Germany should embrace a dramatic Eastern expansion of the EU and NATO wholeheartedly. The dust will take years to settle. It begs the question of what a potential final deal with the Russians would look like and what America’s relationship with Europe will be like because both Ukraine and Poland are far more focused on the military and national security alliance with America.

 

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