The speedy growth of
India’s information technology (IT) sector during the 1990s put India in the
limelight, with analysts worldwide claiming that India was on its way to
becoming a global superpower with its giant, cheap labor pool, trained English
speakers and considerable expertise in the IT industry. The then-ruling Bharatiya Janata
Party coined the term “Shining India” to mark India’s ascent into
the developed world, leading popular Western journalists to clamor over the
idea that a McDonald’s made Bangalore the next San Francisco.
India simply suffers
from one too many structural deficiencies to even come within sight of
superpower status. Though the West quite naturally views liberal democracies
positively, the Indian democracy is a different story. Split across geographic,
economic, linguistic, cultural, religious, political and ideological lines,
India is incapable of coordinating and implementing high-level policy among the
national, regional and local governments. The country is still in a deep
struggle over how to accelerate growth in the IT sector, while India’s
agricultural sector, which employs more than 60 percent of the country’s labor
force and grows annually at a staggeringly low rate, continues to lag behind.
Add to that rampant corruption and a bloated bureaucracy, and any chance of
lifting India’s infrastructure from its sorry state of affairs in even premier
cities like Bangalore is near impossible.
And it gets worse.
India is in a dire energy situation. Already, companies in India have grown accustomed to
hours-long blackouts, especially in the hot summer months. But with crude
prices soaring, India’s energy dilemma is coming to a head with blackouts
becoming longer and more frequent and state refiners buckling under pressure,
and the government is doing anything it can to avoid riots over fuel shortages.
With growth slipping, inflation soaring and food prices increasing, India is in
a difficult spot in managing the effects of the global commodity crisis.
And then there
is the security angle. India suffers from a wide array of militant threats,
including an energized Maoist-influenced Naxalite movement running from the
northeastern Indian state of Bihar to the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, a
mix of separatist insurgencies in the bottlenecked northeast and an Islamist
militant movement concentrated in Kashmir with cells sprinkled throughout
India’s major urban areas.
Though the Indian
Intelligence Bureau (IB) is among the top in the world when it comes to its
ability to conduct surveillance, the IB still has its shortcomings when it
comes to infiltrating militant groups and coordinating counterterrorism
operations across state lines. The Naxalite movement, while concentrated in the
more rural (and mineral-rich) areas of India, has proven quite adept at
circumventing India’s security apparatus and is thriving on the government’s
inability to manage land disputes between displaced villagers and corporations
struggling to get their investments off the ground in India.
The current
Bangalore/Ahmedabad blasts and came less than a year after a series of
explosions hit the city of Hyderabad, Bangalore’s twin IT hub. These two attacks, though
both amateurish in nature, reveal a gradual shift in Kashmiri Islamist militant
cells’ operations toward a more strategic targeting of India’s prized IT sector
— something that we have long been expecting. Though IT installations were not
specifically targeted in the Bangalore and Hyderabad attacks, the fact that
these two cities are on the militants’ radar is enough cause for concern for
multinational corporations (MNCs) operating in India.
Around 40 percent of
the country’s IT sector is concentrated in Bangalore, where around 36 percent
of the country’s computer software is exported. A large number of MNCs are
located in this IT hotbed, including Microsoft, Dell, Applied Materials,
National Instruments, GM, Google, Goldman Sachs, Honeywell, Intel and IBM. Most
foreign IT companies operate on campuses in the city outskirts of Bangalore and
Hyderabad. Their locations allow controlled access to the campus buildings,
greater standoff distance and concentric rings of security around the main
buildings to better immunize these companies from an outside attack. That said,
there are growing indications that Islamist militant groups are focusing their
recruiting efforts on employees working within the IT industry, thus raising
the threat of an attack being facilitated from the inside.
A number of foreign
investors have already begun second-guessing their cost-benefit analysis of
setting up shop in India after getting a rude awakening of what it means to do
business in a country where communal riots, infrastructural breakdowns, abrupt changes
in regulation and militant attacks are a constant worry. The country’s biggest
strength is that it has a large pool of English speakers willing to work for
low wages. The problems with this model are that wages in the IT sector are
rising; many IT companies have grown weary of dealing with customer complaints
who find Indian customer service intolerable; and pouring additional money into
securing these IT campuses is undermining the cost-effectiveness of doing
business in India. Furthermore, setting up call centers requires a relatively
low amount of foreign direct investment, making it a lot less painful to pack
up and relocate to more favorable investment climates, like Israel, Ireland or
Indiana.
India is unlikely to
experience a mass exodus of investment from the companies that have already
absorbed the cost of doing business in the country. But developments such as
the Bangalore and Ahmedabad blasts are bound to have a negative effect on
future investment into the country, taking more of the shine off the Indian
success story.
A US state department
report has put India at the top of the list of countries worst afflicted by
terrorism.
It says that India
had more than 2,300 terrorism-related deaths in 2007 - about 10% of a worldwide
figure of 22,000 terrorism-related deaths that year.
That is an
astonishing number considering many of those 22,000 worldwide deaths occurred
in Iraq and Afghanistan where wars are being fought.
It's not just the
Islamic jihadis but also separatists like the United Liberation Front of Assam
(Ulfa) and Maoist rebels in India who use serial
bombings on a regular basis.
The US report also
questioned India's "outdated and out burdened law enforcement and legal
systems".
"Until we modernise our intelligence gathering and hold it publicly
accountable, we cannot win the fight against terrorism," says Amiyo
Samanta, a former Intelligence Bureau joint director and retired chief of
police intelligence in West Bengal state.
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