By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Attacks On Mumbai

The 2008 Mumbai attacks[14] (also referred to as the 26/11 attacks or 26 November attacks) were a series of terrorist attacks that took place in November 2008, when ten members of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a militant Islamist organization from Pakistan, carried out 12 coordinated shooting and bombing attacks lasting four days across Mumbai.

Reuters reported that the terrorists who attacked Mumbai on Nov. 26 came from Karachi/Pakistan.

Indian police say that the Indian Mujahideen an offshoot of the banned Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), appears to have been given training and backing from militant groups in neighboring Pakistan and Bangladesh in this case.

In our (2008 World-Journal) opinion the operation bears the hallmark of Al Qaeda, possible in cooperation with the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a group that has several affiliate  in S. Asia. Lashkar runs numerous paramilitary camps in Pakistan that have trained thousands of foot soldiers, and that it operates an empire of schools and charities under the front group Jamaat-ud Dawa.

Tthat there also, might be an al Qaeda involvement is possible, indicated by a reporting today, that days ahead of the Mumbai terror attacks, a suspected al-Qaeda operative hinted that a spectacular operation against targets frequented by Westerners was in the final stages of preparation.

Given the style of the operation it is possible that al Qaeda in Pakistan provided the blueprints for this attack. On-the-ground operations like training, surveillance and the actual attack appear to have been carried out by the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba in connection with Indian Islamist groups.

It is not clear the degree to which the Pakistani government can control the situation. But the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the United States will move along the same line. Therefore the events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well, with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities.

Pakistan has a vital interest in supporting proxy militants in its rival’s territory. That said, Pakistan’s plate is quite full at the moment, with a weak and fractured government trying to fend off a raging jihadist insurgency and a severe economic crisis. The Pakistanis are unlikely to be itching for a fight with the Indians that could bring an additional threat to their border when their troops are already occupied.

India in turn has a vibrant history of Islamist militancy.

Speaking from inside the Oberoi hotel where at least half a dozen foreigners are being held hostage one of the gunmen, identifed as Sahadullah, told India TV he belonged to an Indian Islamist group seeking an end to the persecution of Indian Muslims.

"We want all Mujahideens held in India released and only after that we will release the people," he said. "There are seven of us inside Hotel Oberoi."

Preliminary investigations into the attacks, indicated that at least some Pakistani nationals were involved, the Times of India reported earlier today. Sources told the Times of India that information gleaned from captured attackers indicated that the attackers were Pakistanis. Meanwhile, the Colaba police reportedly have impounded four boats the attackers allegedly used to reach Mumbai.

All this while India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh announced on TV that  the perpetrators were based "outside the country" and  India would not tolerate (in a clear referrence to Pakistan) "neighbours" who provide a haven to militants targeting it.

Descriptions of the attackers thus far point to a combination of Indian Muslims, Kashmiris and Pakistanis, all 20 to 25 years of age. Hints of a Pakistani connection are also emerging, with the Indian navy now searching a boat that allegedly originated at the Pakistani port city of Karachi, delivered eight to 10 militants off the coast of Mumbai and was heading back to Karachi Nov. 27 when an Indian navy helicopter encircled and detained the boat.

The Indian government will not be able to downplay its response to an attack of this magnitude, raising the potential for India to spin up the Pakistani linkages in the attack to create a crisis along the Indo-Pakistani border. Discussions are already taking place among senior Congress officials in New Delhi to amass troops along the border in Kashmir, a situation reminiscent of the Indian response to the 2001 parliamentary bombing in Mumbai that led to a near-nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan.

The connection between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency and the Islamist militant groups operating in India has become a lot murkier since 9/11 while the current government in Pakistan has become extremely weak and fractured, making it more difficult for India to immediately blame Islamabad for the attack. However, with the political need to respond forcefully, the Pakistani link can still be spun up relatively easily.

Given the pre-operational surveillance, planning and coordination of this unprecedented attack, it also appears that the domestic elements involved in the operation received outside support, most likely from al Qaeda in Pakistan, which already has close ties to many of the groups operating in India, particularly Lashkar-e-Taiba. That one of the militant name game attacks targeted the Jewish Chabad House (an atypical target for the more indigenous Islamist militants operating in India) indicates more of a transnational jihadist linkage. Groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkat ul Jihad al Islami and the Student Islamic Movement of India are all Islamist militant groups that have collaborated with each other under the Kashmir banner and appear to have now coalesced under the name Indian Mujahideen. The group Deccan Mujahideen, which claimed the Mumbai attacks, is likely an affiliate of the group. In the bigger picture, however, the militant name game is unimportant, since it is meant primarily to confuse India’s security forces. What is important is the link that can be drawn back to the Pakistani ISI.

The Mumbai attacks covered a large number of Western-focused targets over an extended period of time. While the attacks did not require the skills of a bomb maker, they did require scores of young men who were dedicated enough to essentially launch a suicide operation. Such an attack requires a high level of planning, training and coordination that has not been seen by the more homegrown Islamist militant groups operating in India over the past several years.

It is quite possible that these Islamist militant groups received substantial support from intelligence elements in Pakistan in carrying out the attack. Since 9/11, the Pakistani government and military’s command and control over the ISI has become more nebulous, as many of the handlers who worked directly with the militant groups have struggled to maintain a balance between obeying orders from above to crack down on their militant proxies and assisting in operations against India and the United States. In any case, it is up to the Indian government to decide how far it will take the Pakistani link in its response to the attacks.

The Indian navy found a satellite phone in one of those fishing boats searched Thursday night. It may have been forgotten by a crewman from the mother vessel. Checking its SIM may provide a vital lead to the terrorist force's departure point and its dispatchers.

Conclusion: Counter-terror experts estimate that around 500 people must have been involved in setting up an operation on the scale of the Mumbai assault, working out of several countries on the Arabian Sea coast.

The gunmen reached their targets at top speed with unerring precision, indicating -

1. Accomplices were waiting on the beach to lead them to their destinations. They could easily have been planted unnoticed by the security authorities among the many thousands of homeless people who sleep on Mumbai's beaches;

2. Their commanders carried out surveillance expeditions for weeks or months before the assault and then briefed the gunmen.
It may take years to uncover all the details of the elaborate Mumbai terrorist operation. In the meantime, Western intelligence and counter-terror agencies are badly bothered by the failure of Indian intelligence and all the world-wide network of terror watchers to pick up a sign that the Mumbai attack was coming.

The very stretch of water traveled by the terrorists is patrolled by the American aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group. Neither this vessel nor Indian naval intelligence noticed anything amiss.

 

 

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