As suggested by us earlier, an Israeli groundincursion
has now taken place and is rapidly moving southwards today.
We expect therefore that
in particular the fighting around Gaza City will intensify over the next few
days, with on the other hand Palestinian rocket fire to continue at the
same rate for at least several more days to come.
While the conflict
might last for another few weeks, we expect that Israel will be willing to
accept a ceasefire as long it follow the lines of combat reached in the Gaza
Strip.
As the Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) launched an expected ground incursion into Gaza on Jan. 3, Israeli
Defense Minister Ehud Barak furthermore told the Israeli people in a live TV
broadcast that Israel would have to endure a “heavy price” in this military
campaign. Barak also raised the possibility of another front opening up, this
one on Israel’s northern frontier with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Barak said, “We
hope that the northern front will remain calm, but we are prepared for any
possibility.”
Yet neither
Hezbollah, nor Israel is looking for a fight right now. Israel, focused on
paralyzing Hamas, does not want to spread its forces thin by confronting
Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is content with limiting its support to Hamas
to helping maintain the Palestinian group’s supply lines and commanding several
Hamas units in Gaza City. A debate has been taking place inside Hezbollah, however,
regarding how much more Hezbollah should be doing in this Gaza crisis. More
radical elements are arguing that another confrontation with Israel is
inevitable, and that the group would be better off battling Israel in a
two-front war.
In fact it appears
that Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran are making sure such a scenario does not
occur. To this end, Said Jalili, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security
Council, visited Damascus and Beirut on Jan. 2-3. During his visit, he met with
Hamas’ exiled leadership in Damascus, Hezbollah chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah
and Ahmad Jibril, chief of the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC). According to a Stratfor source whose
information has not been verified, Jalili made it abundantly clear in his
meetings that Iran would not authorize Hezbollah to get any more involved in
Israel’s war with Hamas.
Iran’s apparent need
to restrain Hezbollah from provoking Israel represents a very different picture
from 2006, when Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Lebanon
were believed to have played a direct role in escalating the conflict between
Israel and Hezbollah into an all-out war. At that time, Iran was looking to
flex its muscles and demonstrate to the United States, Israel and its Sunni
Arab rivals that it had Shiite militant proxies under its control that could
unleash chaos at Tehran’s will unless certain Iranian demands were met on key
issues, like Iraq.
Tehran has proved its
point, and in the current scenario Iran does not have much to gain from an
Israeli-Hezbollah war. Not only would Hezbollah run the risk of becoming
crippled this time around by a better prepared Israel Defense Forces, but Iran
is also at a delicate negotiating stage with the incoming U.S. administration.
Iran’s main focus is on consolidating the gains it has made thus far in
expanding Shiite power in Iraq; having its primary militant proxy in the Levant
come under fire would thus do little to further Iranian interests at this time.
But Iran is not only
worried about Hezbollah popping a shot across the border. Jalili, according to
the source, al so sought to ensure that Hezbollah and the PFLP-GC prevent
radical Sunni militants milling about in Lebanon from launching a rocket attack
on northern Israel. The Iranians apparently are concerned that these Sunni
militants, the bulk of whom are either on the payroll of Syrian or Saudi
intelligence, could attempt to drag Hezbollah into an all-out war with Israel.
There are reportedly hundreds of Sunni sleeper cells in southern Lebanon, most
of which are in the Palestinian refugee camps of Rashidiyye
and Burj al-Shimali, with others sprinkled throughout
several Sunni villages in the deep south.
While thus the
probability of hostilities breaking out on Israel’s northern frontier remains
low, there is still a chance for militants outside Iran’s and Hezbollah’s
command to open up a new front. Iran does not appear to be taking any chances,
but neither is Israel. If an attack is launched from the north, the Israelis
will not hesitate to respond.
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