By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Putin’s Wins Leave Trump With Hard Choices

Russian President Vladimir Putin got everything he could have hoped for in Alaska. President Donald Trump got very little, judging by his pre-summit metrics.

On Aug 13, Trump threatened “severe consequences” if Putin does not agree to peace in Ukraine and has warned of economic sanctions if his meeting on Aug 15 proves fruitless.

As Trump and Putin met in Alaska, Russia launched 85 attack drones and a ballistic missile targeting Ukraine’s territory.

The question now is whether Trump secured any moderate gains or planted seeds for Ukraine’s future security, if there’s an eventual peace deal with Russia, which was not immediately obvious after Friday’s summit.

And he’s left with some searing strategic questions.

Despite Trump’s claim to have made “a lot of progress” and that the summit was a “10 out of 10,” all signs point to a huge win for the Russian autocrat.

Trump’s lavish stage production of Putin’s arrival on Friday, with near-simultaneous exits from presidential jets and red-carpet strolls, provided some image rehabilitation for a leader who is a pariah in the rest of the West and who is accused of war crimes in Ukraine.

Most importantly, Trump has, at least for now, backed away from threats to impose tough new sanctions on Russia and expand secondary sanctions on the nations that buy its oil and therefore bankroll its war. He’d threatened such measures by a deadline that expired last week out of frustration with Putin’s intransigence and a growing belief the Russian leader was “tapping” him along.

And by the end of their meeting, Trump had offered a massive concession to his visitor by adopting the Russian position that peace moves should concentrate on a final peace deal, which will likely take months or years to negotiate, rather than a ceasefire to halt the Russian offensive now. That just gives Putin more time to grind down Ukraine.

Trump's failure so far to end the Ukraine war that he pledged would be so easy to fix, along with US complicity in the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, means a legacy as a peacemaker and the Nobel Prize that he craves remain out of reach.

Once, Trump predicted he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. Despite his bluster, a comment on Fox News shows that after Alaska, he has a better understanding of how hard it will be.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, meets with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, right, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia on August 6

Hence, the coming weeks are the slow limp forwards that Putin wants: Tension between Trump and Zelensky first, followed by European pressure on Trump to ease off on Zelensky, followed by awkward and technical stalling over a three-way meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

Putin only has to claim scheduling or location conflicts for a week to buy yet more time.

Russia complicating end to war, says Zelensky, as Trump pursues peace deal.

Then a trilateral meeting, if there is one, only risks repeating the cycle again; Putin makes unreasonable demands he knows Ukraine cannot accept, Trump pressures Zelensky to accept them to get quick points on the board, and European leaders lean on Trump to recall that Ukraine’s security is also theirs. And rinse and repeat.

Time. Putin needs it to conquer. Trump hates wasting it without points on the board. Zelensky’s forces do not have it. European leaders hope it erodes Russia’s economic ability to fight.

Much of it has passed since Trump came to power, promising to end the war in 24 hours, and while he is wiser to Putin than in February, little in terms of the hard dynamics and demands of this war has changed.

Most importantly, Trump has, at least for now, backed away from threats to impose tough new sanctions on Russia and expand secondary sanctions on the nations that buy its oil and therefore bankroll its war. He’d threatened such measures by a deadline that expired last week out of frustration with Putin’s intransigence and a growing belief the Russian leader was “tapping” him along.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Marco Rubio talk before the joint news conference.

This leverage may have brought Putin to Alaska. But Trump seems to have relaxed it for little in return. “Because of what happened today, I think I don’t have to think about that now,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News after the summit.

Trump briefed European leaders after the summit, telling them that Putin called on Ukraine to yield roughly a third or so of the Donbas, encompassing the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Russia does not currently control. In return, he’d offer to freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.  This would force Ukraine into an agonizing dilemma. Some analysts fear such a deal would allow Moscow’s forces a platform to launch a future attack.

The shadows of US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are cast during a press conference following their meeting.

European leaders also said Trump voiced openness to providing US security guarantees for Ukraine once the war ends. This could be significant because the president has yet to commit to US support for any Western-led peace mission in the country.

But he didn’t specify what kind of backing he’s willing to provide.

The details of Putin’s conditions emerged when Trump briefed European leaders on the talks as he was arriving back in Washington early this morning. Trump said he believed a deal could be reached quickly if Putin’s conditions were met, and that he would discuss the matter with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Monday, the officials said. On the ground the conditions today are as follows:

 

‘Harsh reality’

In the call, Trump expressed support for a proposal by Putin to take full control of two largely Russian-held Ukrainian regions in exchange for freezing the frontline in two others.

Putin de facto demands that Ukraine leave Donbas, an area consisting of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine, the source said.

In exchange, Russian forces would halt their offensive in the Black Sea port region of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, where the main cities are still under Ukrainian control.

Several months into its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia in September 2022 claimed to have annexed all four Ukrainian regions even though its troops still do not fully control any of them.

The Ukrainian president refused to leave Donbas. Trump notably also said the US was prepared to provide Ukraine security guarantees, an assurance German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hailed as “significant progress”.

But there was a scathing assessment of the summit outcome from the European Union’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, who accused Putin of seeking to “drag out negotiations” with no commitment to end the bloodshed.

“The harsh reality is that Russia has no intention of ending this war any time soon,” Ms Kallas said.

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a press conference following their meeting at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15:

In conclusion, before the high-stakes meeting in Alaska, securing an immediate cessation of hostilities had been a core demand of Trump, who had threatened “severe consequences” on Russia, and European leaders, including Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, who will now visit Washington on Aug 18.

The shift away from the ceasefire would seem to favor Putin, who has long argued for negotiations on a final peace deal, a strategy that Ukraine and its European allies have criticized as a way to buy time and press Russia’s battlefield advances.

Trump spoke with Zelensky and European leaders on his flight back to Washington, saying afterwards that “it was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a peace agreement which would end the war”.

If Moscow lacks “the will to carry out a simple order to stop the strikes, it may take a lot of effort to get Russia to have the will to implement far greater, peaceful coexistence with its neighbors for decades,” Zelensky said on social media.

Ceasefire agreements “often do not hold up”, Trump added on his Truth Social platform.

This new development “complicates the situation”, Zelensky said on Aug 16.

In conclusion some of the key issues are that US President Donald Trump wants to arrange a trilateral meeting with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts by next Friday 22 September, assuming his Monday meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky goes well, Trump told European leaders today.

US Vice President JD Vance and at least one European leader are expected to join the White House sit-down between Zelensky and Trump.

Russian President Vladimir Putin spelled out his demands for “land swaps” with Ukraine during talks with Trump on Friday, including his insistence Ukraine gives up its eastern Donbas region, according to European officials. Putin said in exchange, he would be willing to freeze the current front lines in the rest of Ukraine and agree not to attack Ukraine or other European nations again, Trump told European leaders.

Officials say securing European and US security guarantees for Ukraine will be a difficult task, even in the event of a negotiated peace deal and ceasefire. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Adm. James Stavridis told said that while land can be more easily negotiated, Putin may view NATO-esque protections as more of an existential threat.

 

 

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