By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Europe Must Take the Challenge: Secure its Future

Europe is now confronted with a United States that no longer prioritizes European security. The foundations of the Atlantic Alliance, NATO, are shaking. The US has sidelined Europe in negotiations with Russia over a settlement on Ukraine, disregarding both European and Ukrainian interests.

The question is no longer whether Europe must move forward without the US, but how. The challenge is whether Europe can take the highly necessary step toward autonomy. In addressing this question, Russia’s strategic threat - now used by the US as leverage over Europe - plays a crucial role.

This article explores a worst-case scenario in which the US abruptly decides to leave NATO on short notice. It examines the consequences for Europe, focusing on the Russian threat posed by an emboldened Putin and an unpredictable Trump, who may benefit from a weakened Europe and a Russia that could be detached from China.

Can Europe deal with this? This is a 'thought experiment', the outcome of which will also determine how Europe should position itself in relation to the US.

This scenario serves as a high-level assessment aimed at better anticipating future developments. While the likelihood of this scenario is uncertain, it is essential for Europe (the EU plus the UK) to analyze its implications in order to prepare effectively. This exercise is useful as it exposes weaknesses in Europe's defense structures and could serve as a catalyst for strategic autonomy and defense integration.

In this scenario, Europe faces a direct Russian threat and must immediately take action to maintain strategic, military, and economic stability. The key question is whether Europe can deter Russia and effectively respond to hybrid and conventional threats without the military backbone provided by the US within NATO.

To answer this question, it is useful to first look at Russia's goals and capabilities.

Ukraine serviceman prepares to launch a drone, Kharkiv region, February 15, 2025

 

Russia’s Strategic Goals and Capabilities

Russia has long sought to weaken the US-led global order and establish a multipolar system in which it plays a dominant role.

A sudden US withdrawal from NATO would provide Moscow with an opportunity to further reshape the European security landscape in its favor. The Kremlin’s primary objectives include dismantling American influence in Europe, forcing NATO forces to retreat from Eastern Europe, and expanding its own sphere of influence over former Soviet states. This would be accompanied by a concerted effort to create divisions within the EU and NATO through political manipulation, economic pressure, and hybrid warfare.

Despite the losses it has suffered in Ukraine, Russia retains substantial military capabilities that could be leveraged in this scenario. Its nuclear arsenal remains the world’s largest, serving as a powerful deterrent against any direct confrontation with NATO. Its conventional forces, though weakened, are still capable of exerting pressure on neighboring states. The country’s extensive missile systems and airstrike capabilities pose a significant threat to European security. Moreover, Russia’s expertise in cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns would allow it to exploit vulnerabilities within European political systems and critical infrastructure. Strategic partnerships with China and Iran could further bolster its military and economic resilience, allowing it to sustain prolonged geopolitical pressure.

 

Europe’s Challenge: Facing a Dual Crisis

With no time to prepare, Europe would be forced to respond on two fronts. On one hand, it must rapidly restructure its military capabilities to ensure its defense against potential Russian aggression. On the other hand, it would have to assume full responsibility for stabilizing Ukraine, a task previously shared with the United States. Without the deterrent presence of the US, NATO’s credibility would be tested, and Europe would have to fill the void left by Washington’s absence.

This new reality would expose the weaknesses in Europe’s current defense architecture. The continent has long relied on American leadership and logistical support for key military operations. The immediate loss of US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets would leave European forces at a strategic disadvantage. Similarly, the absence of US strategic airlift capabilities and long-range precision strike systems would hinder Europe’s ability to deploy forces quickly in response to a crisis.

The question then becomes whether Europe can bridge these gaps in time to deter Russian aggression and maintain regional stability.

 

Critical Success Factors: What Europe Must Do

For Europe to effectively counter the Russian threat and maintain stability, it must undertake an urgent and comprehensive transformation of its defense posture.

First and foremost, a European rapid response force must be established to ensure military readiness in the absence of US troops. This would require close coordination between key military powers such as Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Poland, ensuring that troops can be deployed swiftly in crisis situations.

Logistics must be prioritized, with investments in transportation and supply chains allowing for the rapid mobilization of forces across the continent.

In addition to conventional military restructuring, Europe must enhance its deterrence capabilities. Air defense systems must be strengthened to counter potential missile strikes, with a focus on deploying advanced anti-aircraft technology across Eastern Europe. Nuclear deterrence, traditionally managed within NATO’s framework, would require new arrangements, particularly with France, as it is the only EU nation with nuclear capabilities.

Intelligence-sharing agreements must be reinforced to compensate for the loss of US surveillance and reconnaissance assets, allowing European states to maintain situational awareness in the face of evolving threats.

Hybrid threats present another significant challenge. Cybersecurity must be drastically improved to counter Russian cyber warfare tactics, which have already proven effective in disrupting European political processes and critical infrastructure.

Political cohesion is essential, as internal divisions would only serve to strengthen Moscow’s position. Efforts must be made to prevent Russia from exploiting nationalist movements and Euroskeptic sentiment to weaken European institutions.

Another major consideration is Europe’s defense industry. The continent must significantly increase its domestic production of weapons, ammunition, and defense systems to ensure long-term sustainability. Dependency on external suppliers, including the US, must be reduced to allow Europe to maintain strategic autonomy.

Joint military procurement and research initiatives should be expanded to develop next-generation defense technologies tailored to Europe’s specific security needs. Economic resources must be reallocated to fund these projects, which will require difficult political decisions regarding budget priorities.

Stabilizing Ukraine will be a key component of Europe’s new security responsibilities. Without US involvement, Europe must take the lead in providing military and financial aid to Kyiv. A European-led protection force, operating in Ukraine is necessary to secure the region and prevent further Russian advances. At the same time, energy and economic aid must be provided to ensure Ukraine’s long-term resilience against Russian pressure. The challenge will be maintaining this support without overextending European resources, particularly as defense expenditures rise in response to the broader security crisis.

 

Conclusion: Can Europe Counter Russia?

Europe’s ability to counter Russia in the event of a sudden US withdrawal from NATO will depend entirely on the speed and decisiveness of its response. The challenge is immense, but not insurmountable. Russia’s failed assault on Ukraine, viewed in light of Putin’s initial ambitions in 2022, has exposed the structural weaknesses of Russian military power; limitations that Europe, if properly organized, can effectively counter.

At its core, this is not just a military issue but primarily a political challenge. Europe possesses the necessary military capabilities, but these must be fundamentally restructured to address this new reality. That is not the problem. The real question is whether today’s European leaders have the resolve to act with the urgency and determination required.

A well-coordinated NATO transition with a phased US withdrawal would be preferable, but that may be wishful thinking. The alternative - allowing Trump and Putin to dictate Europe’s fate - is far worse.

Europe must not allow itself to be intimidated or divided. This crisis, though daunting, is also an opportunity to take the long-overdue step toward strategic autonomy. A security architecture no longer dependent on Washington is within reach, but only if Europe finds the political will to act now. If it does, this may well be the defining moment that secures its future, sovereignty, and relevance on the global stage.

 

 

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