By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

American military action?

President Donald Trump predicted on Jan 30 that Iran would seek to negotiate a deal rather than face American military action, “I can say this, they do want to make a deal,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Asked if he had given Iran a deadline to enter talks on its nuclear and missile programs, he said “yeah, I have,” but refused to say what it was despite Tehran's warning that its arsenal of missiles would never be up for discussion.

“I can say this, they do want to make a deal,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.

Asked if he had given Iran a deadline to enter talks on its nuclear and missile programs, he said “yeah, I have,” but refused to say what it was.

 

‘Doing the right thing’

Washington’s allies in the region are concerned that any US strike on Iran could cause instability and economic chaos.

One senior Gulf official in touch with the Trump administration said that the United States was closely guarded on what it has planned.

“We hope that whatever happens, it is going to lead to stability. That outcome could be reached by the Iranians doing the right thing, and we hope that happens,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s top security body – secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani – met Tehran’s ally Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

No details of their talks emerged, but Moscow has offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s top diplomat said on Jan 31 that his country’s missile and defense capabilities would “never” be on the negotiating table.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was “ready to begin negotiations if they take place on an equal footing”.

But, he emphasized, “Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities will never be subject to negotiation,” adding there were no plans to meet with US officials on resuming talks.

Washington officials say any deal would have to include a cap on Iran’s arsenal of long-range missiles, the removal of enriched uranium from the country and a ban on independent enrichment.

Serhan Afacan, director of IRAM, the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies, said that trying to link a nuclear deal with other issues would likely “be impossible.”

“For now, the ballistic missile program remains a red line, as it sits at the core of Iran’s defense architecture,” he said.

 

‘Reducing’ tensions

One senior Gulf official in touch with the Trump administration said that the United States was closely guarded on what it has planned.

“We hope that whatever happens, it is going to lead to stability. That outcome could be reached by the Iranians doing the right thing, and we hope that happens,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, the head of Iran’s top security body, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, met Tehran’s ally Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

No details of their talks emerged, but Moscow has offered to mediate between Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s top diplomat said on Jan 31 that his country’s missile and defense capabilities would “never” be on the negotiating table.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran was “ready to begin negotiations if they take place on an equal footing”.

But, he emphasized, “Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities will never be subject to negotiation,” adding there were no plans to meet with US officials on resuming talks.

US news site Axios reportet that Washington officials say any deal would have to include a cap on Iran’s arsenal of long-range missiles, the removal of enriched uranium from the country and a ban on independent enrichment.

Serhan Afacan, director of IRAM, the Ankara-based Centre for Iranian Studies, told AFP that trying to link a nuclear deal with other issues would likely “be impossible.”

“For now, the ballistic missile program remains a red line, as it sits at the core of Iran’s defense architecture,” he said.

 

Iranian toll

Iran has warned that it would respond instantly with missile strikes against US bases, ships and allies, notably Israel.

“We are not limiting the geography of confrontation to the sea alone and have prepared ourselves for broader and more advanced scenarios,” the head of Iran’s Defense Council, Ali Shamkhani, said on Jan 31, according to the Tasnim news agency.

Speaking at a joint news conference in Istanbul with Araghchi, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel was pushing for the United States to attack Iran, and urged Washington to “not allow this to happen”.

Iran has blamed the United States and Israel for the protests that erupted in late December over economic grievances and peaked on Jan 8 and 9, accusing the two countries of fueling a “terrorist operation” that turned peaceful demonstrations into “riots”.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency said it has confirmed 6,563 people killed in the demonstrations, including 6,170 protesters and 124 children, as internet restrictions imposed on Jan 8 continue to hinder access to information inside the country.

But rights groups warn the toll is likely far higher, with estimates in the tens of thousands.

The Iranian authorities give a toll of more than 3,000 deaths in the protests, but say the majority were members of security forces or bystanders killed by “rioters”.

 

 

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