By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers
How to Build an Economic and Security
Order
The United States has
pursued two grand strategies over the past 80 years since World War II. One was
an extraordinary success: the policy of “containment” that guided American
economic investments, foreign relations, and military deployments during the
Cold War, which led to the defeat and collapse of the Soviet Union and the
emergence of the United States as the world’s lone superpower.
The same cannot be
said, unfortunately, about the strategy adopted at the Cold War’s conclusion:
an attempt to leverage superpower status to establish a “liberal world order”
that Washington would secure and dominate. That strategy went by names including
“enlargement,” as defined by President Bill Clinton’s first national security
adviser, Anthony Lake, and “benevolent hegemony,” in the words of the
neoconservative thinkers William Kristol and Robert Kagan. This vision promised an enduring
Pax Americana in which no other country could or would challenge U.S.
supremacy, all nations inevitably evolved toward liberal democracy, and the
global free market’s warm embrace rendered borders increasingly irrelevant
while spreading prosperity worldwide.
By some measures, the
strategy worked. U.S. GDP and stock prices steadily rose. Technology and trade
stitched the world closer together. World War III did not start. But a
clear-eyed appraisal of the post–Cold War era
reveals a less rosy reality. Far from producing a utopia of shared prosperity
and stable peace, American strategy in the past three decades has instead
yielded a global economic order that allows other countries to exploit
Washington’s largess, an ascendant authoritarian adversary in China, and
simmering conflicts around the globe in which expectations of American
commitment far outstrip the reality of American capacity—all of which have
contributed to economic and social decay in the United States.

Any grand strategy
is, in part, a bet on a particular theory of political economy. The bet on
investing to rebuild a bulwark of market democracies whose prosperity would
eventually overwhelm Soviet communism was a wise one. The subsequent bet, on
the ability of globalization and free markets to render political economy
irrelevant, was not. The time has come for a new wager. The best way to create
a sustainable trading and security bloc is a strategy of reciprocity: an
alliance among countries committed to engaging with each other on comparable
terms while jointly excluding others that will not fulfill the same
obligations.
Demanding reciprocity
would counteract the beggar-thy-neighbor policies that have created
unsustainable imbalances with U.S. trading partners, curtail Washington’s
dependence on adversaries for critical goods, and limit the free-riding that
has slowly eroded U.S. alliances and partnerships. By embracing reciprocity,
the United States would also be rejecting an asymmetric order featuring a
dominant power and its clients in favor of one in which participants all stand
on equal footing with equal expectations. This would represent a healthy
development in how the nation conceives of itself, moving away from an American
empire and back toward an American republic.
Perhaps
counterintuitively, the relative decline in American power has strengthened
Washington’s hand when it comes to negotiating the terms of a new global order.
The status quo is predicated on an American commitment to hegemony that
precludes the possibility of pulling back. That commitment made sense as long
as the United States remained dominant. But owing to the self-enfeeblement of
its allies and the ascent of China, the United States can no longer maintain
its predominance.
And so it seems
plausible that a dramatic retrenchment—pulling back from global economic and
military engagement and relying chiefly on the strategic depth and sizable
market provided by the North American continent—could produce a better outcome
than the ongoing descent into late-imperial exhaustion. Simply put, Washington
can now consider walking away from the table if the terms of its relationships
do not improve. Allies and partners know this and want to avoid that outcome,
because the U.S. market and military remain indispensable to their own
prosperity and security. Which means that, for the first time in the lives of
contemporary policymakers, the United States is in a position to frame its
demands around narrow self-interest, back them with credible consequences, and
expect them to be taken seriously. The question that will define the next era
of American statecraft is, What should those demands be?
In his second term,
President Donald Trump has made progress toward developing a strategy of
reciprocity. He and his administration deserve credit for recognizing the need
for change, and they have been persuasive in signaling that they see walking
away from the table as preferable to tolerating the status quo. German
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has conceded that European countries have been
“free-riders,” taking advantage of the United States, and the most recent NATO
summit concluded with an unprecedented commitment by members to raise their
defense spending from at least 2.0 percent of GDP to at least 3.5 percent.
Credibly threatened with tariffs, Canada and Mexico
have begun reducing their economic ties with China; Japan, South Korea,
Vietnam, and the European Union have all worked toward agreements to reduce
their trade imbalances with the United States.
But even though Trump
defines U.S. interests and weighs costs and benefits differently than did his
predecessors, he has not yet translated his “America first” instincts into a
coherent vision of a new global settlement. His trade agenda has appeared haphazard,
and confronting all countries suddenly, simultaneously and harshly has
needlessly antagonized allies and heightened uncertainty. In China, the
administration has oscillated unpredictably, pursuing a sharp decoupling one
day and a grand bargain the next. And it has been difficult to discern the
logic behind moves such as imposing stiff tariffs on India, purportedly in
response to that country’s oil purchases from Russia.
But even though Trump
defines U.S. interests and weighs costs and benefits differently than did his
predecessors, he has not yet translated his “America first” instincts into a
coherent vision of a new global settlement. His trade agenda has appeared haphazard,
and confronting all countries suddenly, simultaneously and harshly has
needlessly antagonized allies and heightened uncertainty. In China, the
administration has oscillated unpredictably, pursuing a sharp decoupling one
day and a grand bargain the next. And it has been difficult to discern the
logic behind moves such as imposing stiff tariffs on India, purportedly in
response to that country’s oil purchases from Russia.
To reset
relationships and forge new ones on new premises requires communicating the
reasons for the change, the shape of the new strategy, the character of
American demands, and the consequences for failure to reach an agreement.
Reciprocity can provide those premises, on terms fair to both the United States
and prospective allies. But Washington needs to establish and articulate those
premises and terms as clearly as possible.

A Bad Bet
For a brief moment
after the defeat of Soviet communism, Americans debated whether they should
return to the humble and noninterventionist foreign policy tradition that a
bounty of natural resources and the protection of two oceans had enabled in the
republic’s early years. But officials and politicians were exhilarated by
victory, possessed of an astonishing hubris, and seduced by visions of empire
offered by scholars and pundits. The United States, they decided, could and
should dominate global affairs indefinitely.
The seminal Defense
Planning Guidance developed by the George H. W. Bush administration in 1992
called for the United States to “promote increasing respect for international
law, limit international violence, and encourage the spread of democratic forms
of government and open economic systems”,” and to “retain the pre-eminent
responsibility for addressing selectively those wrongs which threaten not only
our interests, but those of our allies or friends, or which could seriously
unsettle international relations.” The following year, Clinton ratified this
bipartisan consensus in a speech at the United Nations. “We cannot solve every
problem,” he said, “but we must and will serve as a fulcrum for change and a
pivot point for peace.” Four years later, in his second inaugural address,
Clinton went further, and to “retain the pre-eminent responsibility for
addressing selectively those wrongs which threaten not only our interests, but
those of our allies or friends, or which could seriously unsettle international
relations.” The following year, Clinton ratified this bipartisan consensus in a
speech at the United Nations. “We cannot solve every problem,” he said, “but we
must and will serve as a fulcrum for change and a pivot point for peace.” Four
years later, in his second inaugural address, Clinton went further, anointing
the United States the world’s “indispensable nation.”
Within a remarkable
12-month period surrounding that speech, a chorus of prominent thinkers cheered
on this new credo. Kristol and Kagan assigned the American people “fundamental
interests in a liberal international order, the spread of freedom and democratic
governance, an international economic system of free-market capitalism and free
trade,” and a “responsibility to lead the world.” The New York Times columnist
Thomas Friedman published his observation that “no two countries that both have
a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other.” And the economist Paul
Krugman asserted that “a country serves its own interests by pursuing free
trade regardless of what other countries may do.”
Embedded in these
declarations were three interlocking assumptions. First, that the United
States, standing alone as the world’s sole economic and military superpower,
would have the ability and will to dictate global events when and where it
chose. Second, that all countries of geopolitical significance would move
inexorably toward market capitalism and democratic governance and thus would
have interests and systems compatible with a U.S.-led liberal world order. And
finally, that free markets would automatically generate prosperity, for the
United States most of all, and thus the expansion and integration of markets
would reinforce the American position.
As long as those
assumptions held, the costs incurred by the United States to preserve the
status quo could yield it far larger benefits. Domination of global affairs
allowed Washington to push other countries toward economic and political
liberalization, which further expanded markets that the United States could
then dominate and orient toward its own priorities. Outspending the rest of the
world, combined, on defense and tolerating market abuses on the part of other
countries—including currency manipulation, industrial subsidies, regulatory
barriers, and wage suppression—were small prices to pay, and ones that the
United States could easily afford.
For a time, these
core assumptions seemed to hold. The 1990s began with the triumph of the
U.S.-led coalition in the Persian Gulf War. Israel and the Palestinian
Liberation Organization signed the Oslo Accords, South Africa transitioned from
apartheid to democracy, and NATO intervened successfully in the Balkan wars.
The North American Free Trade Agreement took effect, the World Trade
Organization launched, and the European Union adopted a common
currency. At the decade’s end, the United States arrived at the crest of
an economic boom, with a federal budget comfortably in surplus, unchallenged in
any sphere of global leadership.
But in 2000, the Russian
Federation elected Vladimir Putin as president, and he has led the country ever
since. That October, the United States granted “permanent normal trade
relations” to China with the expectation that the embrace would “increase the
likelihood of positive change in China and therefore stability throughout
Asia,” as Clinton had explained earlier that year at the annual meeting of the
World Economic Forum in Davos. “What some call globalization,” elaborated
President George W. Bush the following July, “is in fact the triumph of human
liberty across national borders.” Two months later, the Twin Towers fell, and
the U.S. military plunged into Afghanistan.
In the years that
followed, systems bearing no resemblance to market democracy gained traction,
and countries that adopted them grew stronger, undermining international
institutions built to serve liberal states, violating international law with
impunity, and making a mockery of the global trading system. Washington failed
to build stable democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the invasions of those
countries accomplished little besides miring the United States in “forever
wars” that cost thousands of American lives and trillions of dollars.
Elsewhere, few young democracies consolidated their gains, while countries such
as Russia, Turkey, and Venezuela slid further backward into authoritarianism.

A NATO exercise in Wierzbiny,
Poland, September 2025
More than 40 U.S. military
bases and some 80,000 American troops in Europe did nothing to deter Russia
from invading Georgia in 2008, then Crimea in 2014, then the rest of Ukraine in
2022. The only perceptible effect of these massive deployments was to
discourage Washington’s European allies from investing in their own defense.
Meanwhile, China chipped away at the military dominance that was the
prerequisite for American hegemony. By some estimates, its defense spending is
equivalent to that of the United States, and it fields the world’s largest
active-duty fighting force and largest naval fleet. China’s industrial power
allows it to influence foreign conflicts—for instance, bolstering the war
machine that powers Russia’s assault on Ukraine—and would give China an
advantage in a lengthy war of attrition. U.S. shipbuilding capacity trails
China’s by a factor of 1,000.
China’s growing
advantages are a symptom of the broader failure of globalization. For the past
three decades, the unfettered flow of goods and capital has devastated American
industry, helped drive up federal deficits, and provided the fuel for the financial
meltdown that led to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Great
Recession that followed. The manufacturing sector’s crown jewels, from Intel to
Boeing to General Electric, became laggards—overtaken not by new American
entrepreneurs but by foreign state-subsidized enterprises. The sector has
atrophied so badly that, according to data on productivity published by the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, factories today need more workers than they
did a decade ago to produce the same output.
Although the U.S.
service sector’s rise in relative importance was natural for an advanced
economy, the stagnation in manufacturing was not. The abandonment of
production, typified by Apple’s “designed in California, made in China”
strategy, sent factory jobs overseas first—but the innovation soon followed.
In the mid-2000s, the
United States was ahead of China on 60 of 64 “frontier technologies” identified
by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. By 2023, China led on 57.
In the twenty-first
century, American military leadership and economic forbearance neither achieved
an “enlargement” of the community of market democracies nor boosted American
security and prosperity. It merely consumed the physical, financial, and social
capital that the country had painstakingly accumulated. For global superpowers
as much as for families, it turns out, one generation builds the wealth, the
second enjoys it, and the third destroys it or sees it squandered.

No More Free Rides
The hallmark of U.S.
strategy during hegemony was the unconditionality of its vision, providing
benefits to other countries regardless of how they exploited the arrangement.
When NATO allies refused to meet their defense spending commitments, the United
States might cajole, but its own commitment to defending every NATO country
from any possible attack remained rock solid. If China manipulated its
currency, subsidized its national champions, stole intellectual property, and
denied U.S. firms access to its market, Washington might complain, but the
American market would remain open to Chinese companies. When it came to its
allies and partners, the United States would say “do this” and “stop that”—but
it rarely said “or else.”
Over time, what
developed among the expert class in Washington was a belief that open markets
and alliances were ends unto themselves, so valuable that they were worth
pursuing at any price, regardless of how other countries behaved. That belief
was unfounded even when the United States was the predominant power; in the
post-hegemony world, it is unmoored from reality. The country needs a new path.
One alternative would
be retrenchment: taking advantage of the strategic depth afforded by geography
to build a “Fortress America” with only Canada and Mexico as close partners.
This would be a dramatic transformation but an entirely plausible one, and preferable
to a status quo in which the United States continues to absorb the costs of
attempting to preserve hegemony while enjoying none of the benefits that depend
on preserving it. But that would be far from ideal: the country would lose the
capacity to influence events around the world in situations that involved
critical U.S. interests. Retrenchment would also shrink the scale of the broad
open market in which American businesses innovate and grow.
At the same time,
although the days of incurring costs in pursuit of benevolent hegemony are
over, it would also be a mistake for the United States to pursue a nakedly
coercive empire that leverages its economic and military power to exploit
putative allies. Doing so would corrode the country’s democratic republic by
elevating the interests of elites over those of ordinary citizens and would
corrupt the country’s ethos of liberal governance and self-determination. It
would also trigger resentments that would make U.S. alliances less stable and
conflicts within them more likely.
Instead of pursuing
either of those extremes, the United States should pursue reciprocity, focused
on a set of commitments that allies must make to each other for the alliance to
function well. Going forward, the question Washington should pose to any ally
or potential partner is this: If each member were behaving the way you are,
would the alliance be a strong one benefiting all members, or would it
collapse?
On this basis, the
United States should make three core demands of any prospective participant in
a U.S.-led trading and security bloc. First, Washington should insist that its
allies and partners are prepared to take primary responsibility for their own
security. A country that does not even attempt to defend itself brings a
security deficit to a coalition and acts as a drain on the collective defense,
imposing obligations on others that it cannot reciprocate.

Trump speaking with European Commission President
Ursula von der Leyen in Turnberry, Scotland, July
2025
Consider Germany,
which has relied on the United States for security in its region since the end
of World War II. “We cannot substitute or replace what the Americans still do
for us,” Merz conceded in May. The same cannot be said about what, if anything,
the Germans still do for the United States. The basing of so many American
troops on German soil, at American expense, serves the Germans, the rest of
Europe, and the dreams of empire that some in Washington still harbor. But it
does not serve the interests of the typical American. The U.S.-German
relationship is not an alliance in any meaningful sense of the term: in
reality, Germany is a client and the United States is a patron, although one
that gets little in exchange for its patronage. The bases in Germany should be
German, hosting German troops paid by the German government to maintain
comparable capabilities.
Conversely, a country
that can take responsibility for deterring and defeating common foes in its own
region while contributing intelligence and technology to its partners is
invaluable. In June, the Israeli air campaign against Iran provided a concrete illustration.
Israel hoped the United States would join, but had little leverage to make it
do so. U.S. leaders were able to assess their options and decide which best
advanced American interests. When Trump opted to take part, American B-2s were
able to follow a path already cleared and strike targets already softened by
Israeli forces. Iran found it unwise to attempt more than a symbolic
retaliation.
A strategy of
reciprocity would call for ending direct U.S. aid to Israel; it is wholly
unnecessary given Israel’s wealth and strategic position, and it does not
deliver a clear benefit to the United States. But Washington should gladly
continue selling arms to Israel, and even providing financing for those sales,
as it should for other allies that take primary responsibility for their own
regions. Israel generally allocates more than five percent of its GDP to
defense spending, even when not engaged in active
conflicts, and it
mandates conscription for a majority of citizens. Israel does these things not
to secure Washington’s blessing but to secure itself. Imagine what the United
States would save, and how much more secure from Russian and Chinese aggression
the world would be, if countries such as Germany and Japan were equally
determined to deter their regional adversaries.

In Or Out?
If it pursued reciprocity,
Washington would also make a second demand: balanced trade. Economists have
long understood that the benefits of free trade are undermined if countries
adopt beggar-thy-neighbor policies that shift productive capacity to themselves
at the expense of partners. In its efforts to achieve benevolent hegemony, the
United States tolerated being beggared by its neighbors. For example, major
trading partners such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea have pursued
aggressive industrial policies and export-led growth strategies that shifted
productive capacity from the United States and created persistent trade
imbalances.
The United States
tolerated this state of affairs partly for the sake of securing the loyalty of
its allies and partners, and partly out of a mistaken belief that making things
did not matter anymore and offshoring American industry would lead to cheaper
goods for American consumers and better jobs in high-value service industries.
Those tradeoffs have become untenable, as a weakened manufacturing sector has
frayed the social fabric by eliminating millions of good blue-collar jobs,
shattered the foundations of local economies across broad swaths of the
country, reduced investment and innovation, imperiled supply chains, and
eliminated the strategic depth afforded by a robust industrial base.
The United States
should be a strong advocate for a large and open market as a core feature of an
alliance, but it must insist that all participants foster the mutual benefit
that a well-functioning trading system provides. In practice, this requires that
each country commit to maintaining balance in its own trade, buying as much
from others in the bloc as it sells to them. In the global trading system
today, the United States operates as the consumer of last resort, absorbing
surpluses from all who wish to run them. No other country can match China’s
abuse of the global trading system, but Germany, Japan, and South Korea all
rely on export-led growth and expect the U.S. economy to absorb their massive
export surpluses, too, to the benefit of their producers and the detriment of
American competitors.
Although a bilateral
imbalance between any two countries is not necessarily problematic, an alliance
cannot tolerate members pursuing large overall surpluses, which by definition
necessitate others to run large deficits. Reciprocity would require using tariffs,
quotas, or other regulatory barriers to discipline any country that is creating
a structural imbalance. Countries running persistent surpluses could also
commit to voluntary restraints on their own exports and could encourage their
companies to build capacity in allied markets, as Japan did in the 1980s after
the Reagan administration objected to Japanese automakers pouring cheaper cars
into the American market. Countries that refused to play by the rules and
pursue balance would be pushed out of the common market and face a high,
uniform tariff from all members of the bloc.
In an era when the
United States guaranteed open access to its market regardless of whether
participants followed the rules, other countries quite rationally took
advantage. If the United States instead conditioned access to its market on
trading relationships that are balanced and thus mutually beneficial, countries
will find it in their interest to adjust accordingly. The shock waves triggered
by the Trump administration’s tariffs are educating both economists and U.S.
allies on this point. Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, the United Kingdom,
and the European Union have all altered their own trade policies—lowering
barriers for U.S. exporters and raising barriers for China’s, in various
combinations—and some have also made large commitments to invest in expanding
U.S. capacity.

Conscious Uncoupling
The third demand of a
reciprocity strategy is simple: “China out.” The strategy of benevolent
hegemony atop a liberal world order assumed the United States would remain the
lone superpower, all countries would move toward market democracy, and free
trade among them would foster prosperity for all. But China didn’t follow the
script. How would U.S. leaders in 1997 react if a time traveler could go back
and tell them that China—whose GDP per capita was then lower than that of the
Republic of the Congo—would remain an authoritarian country with a state-run
economy yet rise to match the United States geopolitically and outcompete it in
industrial power? Presumably, they would laugh. But anyone who believed it
would surely abandon the blind embrace of China on the spot. The United States,
after all, had triumphed in a Cold War during which not even the most orthodox
free-market libertarians advocated that the United States pursue trade with the
Soviet Union or otherwise entangle the American and Soviet economic and
political systems.
U.S. producers will
not be able to enjoy the benefits of free trade if they are forced to compete
against state-subsidized Chinese competitors in the Japanese market, or face
imports from Malaysia into the U.S. market that rely on Chinese materials and components
sold below cost. Thus, other countries’ access to the American market must be
conditioned on their willingness to exclude China. The requirement of balanced
trade would itself push countries in this direction, as many are discovering in
the wake of the escalating U.S.-Chinese tariff war. The American refusal to
continue absorbing China’s surplus has led to import surges into Europe, for
instance, creating enormous headaches for leaders there. With the United States
maintaining an unconditionally open market, Mexico might want to welcome
enormous investment from BYD, the Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer, in
factories that would then export cars into the United States. But if Mexico
cannot run an enormous trade surplus with the United States, the proposition
loses its appeal.
The China challenge
goes far beyond trade imbalances, of course. As Chinese leader Xi Jinping shuts
off the global supply of rare-earth magnets, the world is seeing the cost of
letting the Chinese Communist Party manipulate and corner vital strategic markets.
China makes investments abroad to usurp critical technologies and exercises
political leverage over investors in the Chinese market. Governments and
corporations will repeatedly see advantage in accepting what China offers, even
as the cumulative effect of those bargains weakens both. If Washington pursued
a strategy of reciprocity, the security of the United States and its allies and
partners, and the freedom of the open market they would share, would depend on
holding all participants accountable for disavowing that course.
Investment flows
likewise require decoupling. The United States and its allies and partners
should prohibit inbound investment from China (including foreign direct
investment that results in China-based firms operating within their borders)
and also prohibit their own citizens and firms from holding assets or making
investments within China’s borders. Technology ecosystems will also need to
diverge, especially as the United States leads efforts to restrict China’s
access to cutting-edge artificial intelligence chips and chip-making equipment.
On all fronts, the principle must be that one can do business in the Chinese
sphere or the American one, but not both.
After decades during
which Washington entangled the U.S. and Chinese economies, abandoned expertise
and neglected to invest in domestic manufacturing, and accepted dependence on
Chinese supply chains, the process of decoupling will impose real costs on the
United States. In the short run, some consumer products will become more
expensive. Some businesses will suffer from the loss of suppliers or customers.
Reindustrialization will require substantial new investment, which implies some
reductions in consumption.
But these results are
best understood as the price of losing the bet on globalization. Climbing back
out of that hole was always going to be expensive. The longer that policymakers
refuse to acknowledge reality and insist on doubling down on the failed status
quo, the more expensive it will become. Conversely, paying those costs now
represents an investment in reindustrialization that will pay enormous
dividends for decades.

American cars at a port in Yokohama, Japan, July 2025
Reciprocity to the Rescue
The United States
retains considerable leverage to redefine its role in the world and shape a new
U.S.-led alliance system accordingly. Other countries will sulk when they
realize that the old deal is no longer available. But if Washington can make
clear that the options are a new alliance or no alliance, other market
democracies will rationally accept the offer.
The deal would be a
fair one. The United States would hold other countries to the same conditions
to which it would expect to be held. Obviously, it would remain a heavy spender
on its own defense and the common defense; it would not expect other countries
to pay the full cost. In seeking balanced trade, it would be asking others to
meet it in the middle, not to accept a role reversal in which American
producers get to dominate global markets.
These new American
demands would disrupt the status quo and impose short-term costs on allies and
partners. But they, too, would ultimately benefit. Those in Asia surely wish
they could credibly defend Taiwan without wondering whether the United States would
truly do so if push came to shove. Those in Europe surely wish they could have
credibly warned Putin away from invading Ukraine. In Germany and Japan,
especially, export-led growth models appear to have run their course and have
given way to stagnation. Both countries would do well to turn toward strategies
that boost domestic consumption. And while the lure of cheap Chinese goods and
capital has repeatedly proved irresistible in the short run, all are aware of
the long-term risks. Any market democracy should be excited to accept a
partnership on those terms over the alternative of falling into a Chinese
sphere of influence, and the United States can afford to hold firm on the
terms.
The idea of spheres
of influence offends liberal internationalist sensibilities. “During the Cold
War,” The Economist argued in July, “American- and Soviet-led
blocs amounted to spheres of influence. After the USSR fell, both Democratic
and Republican administrations repudiated such spheres as deplorable artefacts
of the past, calling instead for a liberal world order, open to all.” That is
true as a descriptive matter, but it only underscores the wishful thinking that
underpinned the repudiation. What happens to a liberal world order “open to
all” when some accept the invitation to join but not the terms of membership?
They can be welcomed anyway, leading to a world order that is far from liberal,
or they can be excluded, preserving the prospects for a liberal order that
excludes some of the world. The former has been tried, and it failed. The
latter, by insisting on reciprocity and accepting spheres as inevitable in a
world of competing and incompatible economic and political systems, gives the
United States a much better chance of achieving its goals and advancing its
values.
Reciprocity holds the
promise of improved economic prospects, reduced foreign commitments, and a
return to the politics of a republic focused foremost on the interests of its
own citizens. But adopting such a strategy will require American leaders—and ordinary
Americans—to accept a more limited role for their country on the world stage.
Patriotism demands realistic assessments of abilities and interests, not the
outlandish embrace of goals the country has no power to achieve.
The gambler who
responds to frustrating losses by placing bigger and riskier bets is said to be
“on tilt.” In the United States, too many analysts are still assessing the
hypothetical benefits of a hyperpower status that does not exist; too many
politicians are still giving speeches about their affection for various forms
of imagined empire. With a humbler and more realistic strategy of reciprocity,
Washington would finally be placing a bet that the United States can win.
In the meantime, IDF
Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has appointed Maj. Gen. Yaakov Dolef
to be responsible for coordination with the international stabilization force..
Since the IDF's
withdrawal behind the yellow line, large numbers of IDF engineering and
infantry troops have been working to clear the perimeter that Israel plans on
remaining in with the end of the war.
IDF officials have
demanded that the political leadership decide that there will be no Palestinian
civilian presence in the area, even if it means withdrawing an additional
several hundred meters.
"We won't be
establishing an Area C in Gaza," one officer familiar with the situation
said, referring to the area of the West Bank in which Israel and not the
Palestinian Authority is in full control. "The buffer zone needs to remain
as a security area without the IDF getting responsibility for the local
population that would move next to it along the corridors."
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