By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Upheaval In Lebanon

Just days before Hamas’ attack on Israel last October, Hezbollah was bragging about its military capabilities and threatening to take on Israel directly in the Upper Galilee. In May 2023, Hezbollah invited foreign journalists to report on a military exercise carried out by its elite al-Radwan Force. The drills simulated an operation that would repel an Israeli attack and launch a counteroffensive inside Israeli territory. The day after the Hamas attack, Hezbollah opened a front against Israel in solidarity with Hamas, hurling rockets and anti-armor into northern Israel.

It soon became clear to Hezbollah's leadership that, given the high casualties within its ranks, its attack had become a self-inflicted wound. But instead of curtailing its unpropitious war effort, Hezbollah chose to escalate the confrontation by firing more unguided and inaccurate Katyusha rockets toward Israel. Its defiance has proved detrimental to its military and political structure. Following the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, it is now bracing for an Israeli ground incursion and vociferous demands from Lebanese Christians to disarm.

 

How We Got Here

Following Hezbollah’s attacks in defense of Hamas, the Israeli military’s systematic targeting of the group’s facilities and personnel quickly revealed Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities, eliminating its field commanders as they traveled throughout the country. It began in January 2024, when Israel eliminated a senior Hamas official in Hezbollah’s main bastion in the southern suburbs of Beirut. A few days later, it killed a ranking al-Radwan officer in southern Lebanon. Since then, Israel’s targeted killing of top Hezbollah commanders has escalated.

On Sept. 17, Israel detonated pagers belonging to Hezbollah members, putting at least 3,000 of the group’s personnel who were injured in the operation out of commission. The next day, it also exploded walkie-talkies owned by Hezbollah members, neutralizing hundreds more of its staff and fighters. On Sept. 27, Israel launched a game-changing air raid on Hezbollah’s central headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut, killing its secretary-general, Nasrallah, and the group’s commander-in-chief and his likely successor, rendering its rank-and-file leaderless. Hezbollah has responded timidly, choosing not to deploy its long-range missiles, which it had previously touted as highly precise.

Before eliminating Nasrallah, the Israeli air force waged a devastating air campaign that targeted Hezbollah’s arms depots and rocket launchers in the valleys of southern Lebanon and long-range missiles in the birthplace of Hezbollah, the Bekaa Valley. The air campaign has continued to this day without respite.

 

Iran On The Defensive

On Oct. 8, 2023, the day after Hamas’ attack on Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that when the war in Gaza ended in Hamas’ destruction, Israel would turn its attention to the northern front (read: Hezbollah) and change the Middle East. Just before assassinating Nasrallah, Netanyahu said Israel had begun the transformation. In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he presented two maps: One, titled “The Curse,” highlighted Iran and its so-called axis of resistance, and the other, titled “The Blessing,” featured the Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel. (Notably, Netanyahu included Saudi Arabia in the second map, even though Riyadh has not officially established diplomatic ties with Israel.)

Israel is determined to dismantle Iran’s axis of resistance. This endeavor would require invading not just southern Lebanon along the Israel border but also eastern Lebanon along the Syrian border to choke Hezbollah and convince the Syrian regime to abide by Israel’s demands. Syrian leader Bashar Assad has distanced himself from the war in Gaza and Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. Recently, Saudi Arabia reopened its embassy in Damascus, possibly hinting at Assad’s willingness to loosen ties with Iran.

The ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war differs from their 2006 conflict. The current conflict could be the last war between Israel and an Arab force over a territorial dispute and a prelude to regional peace. Israel is keen on winning decisively because Hezbollah is a vital Iranian proxy in the region. A decisive Israeli victory, including the removal of all remaining obstacles to peace, necessitates invading the northern Bekaa Valley, from where Israel can declare Hezbollah’s demise. Israel needs to display its military might and the long arm of its army by chasing down its enemy to its principal bastion.

In May, Iranian hardline President Ebrahim Raisi died in a curious helicopter crash. His successor, reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, promised to focus on pressing domestic affairs, namely the country’s deteriorating economic conditions. Last week, Pezeshkian suddenly announced that Iran is willing to revive the stalled nuclear talks, which were essentially derailed by Iran’s regional proxies, specifically Hezbollah, its most powerful pawn. Pezeshkian followed up these comments by saying that all countries in the region were entitled to live in peace and stability, an unprecedented implicit recognition of Israel. Many Hezbollah partisans believe that Iran has betrayed them. For Tehran, however, state survival supersedes ideology, and politics is not about enduring alliances but about permanent interests.

 

Lebanon’s Nebulous Future

Lebanon is in turmoil and faces unprecedented challenges. In developing countries, factional bloodshed tends to increase when the political center collapses, especially if the military is also at risk of fracturing. For years, Lebanese politics was dominated by Hezbollah, whose military wing dwarfed the poorly armed national army, which has traditionally avoided taking sides in the country’s sectarian politics. (The army took sides twice during the 1975-1989 civil war and fragmented along sectarian lines in both instances.) After Israel destroys Hezbollah as a regional military force, one of the main problems facing Lebanon will be the prevalence of light arms among members of the Shiite sect. This one factor could be enough to ignite another civil war.

For years, Lebanese Christians and Sunnis had demanded that Hezbollah’s hegemony over Lebanese politics be curtailed and that it be transformed into a mainstream political party. Now that Israel has dismantled Hezbollah’s hierarchy, the Lebanese people will have to wait to see if its new leadership will accept the end of its place as an Iranian proxy. If not, Lebanon could be dragged into another conflict that it cannot win. The Lebanese army has already issued a statement calling on citizens to preserve national unity – although unity in Lebanon has never existed in the first place. Lawlessness is surging, as dozens of inmates escaped from two prisons in the country, many being caught by security forces and vigilantes. Many Shiites have become internally displaced, which does not bode well for the country, especially if the conflict drags on. Even in disarray, the future of Lebanon still lies in the hands of Hezbollah.

 

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