By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Troubles With Turkey/Sweden/Finland

At first sight, it appears that  Turkey attempts to play the role of a diplomatic middleman. However, Erdogan has been increasingly playing both sides in recent years, and it’s not impossible that he could refuse entirely. In addition to his troubled relationship with the United States, Erdogan is one of the few leaders who has managed to keep ties open with Russia and Ukraine. The Turks are even arming Ukraine while doubling their trade with Russia. And they helped to orchestrate the grain export deal last year between the two sides between Russia and the West. But it’s far less clear why Western leaders tolerate its veto over issues like NATO membership. The only reason seems to be that they wait till afther the elections on 18 June.

What Turkey brings to the alliance is Geography, given the country’s strategically important location on the Dardanelles—but I’m not sure that’s sufficient. It was helpful that Turkey invoked the Montreux Convention last year, constraining Russia’s ability to use naval power in Ukraine. Still, it’s also repeatedly resisted allowing the U.S. military to use Turkish territory or airspace over the last few decades. I’d go as far as to say that Turkey’s geography only benefits NATO when Turkey wants it to.

Moreover, Turkey has one of the largest and most capable militaries in NATO. It hosts U.S. bases and radars. Washington and Ankara mostly share threat assessments related to Russia, Iran, and terrorism. And it has been a good ally in the not-too-distant past.

Yet Erdogan aide says time running out to ratify Sweden, Finland NATO bids.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (R) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson attend a joint press conference in Ankara, Turkey, on Nov. 8, 2022:

One of the troubles here is that while Turkey has a real problem with terrorism, it’s also true that some of the people that Erdogan wants to have extradited are journalists. The evidence that others committed crimes is murky. It’s a reminder that Turkey is not just authoritarian but also actively engaged in human rights abuses against Kurdish groups domestically and in neighboring states. One also has to wonder if it’s worth keeping Turkey inside the tent when the country adds such limited value. You have to balance the geostrategic benefits the country brings to the alliance against the fact that Turkey picks and chooses when it wants to be aligned with NATO.

 

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