By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The next 100 days

The first meeting of G7 Foreign Ministers took place at Schlossgut Weissenhaus in Schleswig-Holstein from 12 to 14 May 2022. “We will never recognize any borders that Russia has attempted to move through military aggression.” This was announced by the foreign ministers of the G7 states in their joint statement issued at the end of their meeting in Weissenhaus in Schleswig-Holstein on Saturday.

Russia’s blocking of Ukrainian grain exports was a key subject of debate during the G7 meeting. Foreign Minister Baerbock accused Russia of leading a “grain war”, and continued to say that Russia was jeopardizing the global grain supply by blocking the Ukrainian ports. The G7 states had discussed among each other and with the Ukrainian foreign minister how the around 25 million tonnes of grain that are currently stuck at Ukrainian ports can be exported by rail, for example, she continued. Numerous questions had to be addressed, including the fact that the Ukrainian rail network has a different track width than its western neighbors.

The map of Europe is being redrawn, with “de-Russification” sweeping the Continent as countries move to wean themselves from Russian oil and gas, stripping the Kremlin of vital income. Germany has canceled NordStream2, the controversial gas pipeline with Moscow that was on the cusp of being approved.

One hundred days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the war has brought the world a near-daily drumbeat of gut-wrenching scenes: Civilian corpses in the streets of Bucha; a blown-up theater in Mariupol; the chaos at a Kramatorsk train station in the wake of a Russian missile strike.

Those images tell just a part of the overall picture of Europe's worst armed conflict in decades. In some places such as the long-besieged city of Mariupol, potentially the war's biggest killing field, Russian forces are accused of trying to cover up deaths and dumping bodies into mass graves, clouding the overall toll.

With all those caveats, “at least tens of thousands” of Ukrainian civilians have died so far, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Thursday in comments to Luxembourg's parliament.

In Mariupol alone, officials have reported over 21,000 civilian dead. Ukraine’s suffering is abhorrent, Russia’s war represents the worst of our age of impunity. This age was not inevitable, but it will get worse unless those who believe in the rule of law tackle it now.

In war zones today, nearly 90 percent of casualties are civilians. Attacks on health facilities have increased 90 percent in the past five years while attacks on aid workers have increased 85 percent in the past decade. Two hundred million people are trying to survive in conflicts where humanitarian access constraints are very high or extreme, according to ACAPS, a humanitarian analysis nonprofit.

Ukraine, a major agricultural producer, says it has been unable to export some 22 million tons of grain. It blames a backlog of shipments on Russian blockades or capture of key ports. Zelenskyy accused Russia this week of stealing at least a half-million tons of grain during the invasion.

The fallout has rippled around the globe, further driving up costs for basic goods on top of inflation that was already in full swing in many places before the invasion. Developing countries are being squeezed particularly hard by higher costs of food, fuel, and financing.

The upcoming G-7 summit of the world’s leading industrialized democracies from 26 to 28 June being held in Germany is a pivotal opportunity to change course. The German hosts have said the summit will focus on defending Ukraine, strengthening trans-Atlantic unity, and addressing the global food security crisis exacerbated by the war. These are vital goals. But the summit should also prioritize accountability in the conduct of war.

Based on Western leaders’ rhetoric so far, the G-7 will be tempted to make democracy versus autocracy its central focus. This would be a mistake. While the West has maintained an impressive degree of unity against Russia since the war began, the same cannot be said of the wider world. Indeed, many powerful democratic countries—including India, Brazil, and South Africa—remain on the sidelines, seeking to avoid getting dragged into a brewing conflict between the West and Russia. This summit should focus on bringing them on board by using language and emphasizing priorities that address their concerns.

First, it is important that the summit reframe what’s at stake in Ukraine as a fight between the rule of law and impunity. The G-7 should make clear that it is not seeking changes to international law. Instead, the bloc is simply trying to protect the rights of civilians that countries around the world have agreed to do for decades through the Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols; the United Nations Charter; and more recently, U.N. Security Council resolutions, such as Resolution 2286 on the protection of health in conflict. This does not mean giving up on democracy; it means recognizing that defending democracy depends on curbing the abuse of power internationally.

Second, it is critical to address Russian and global south claims of Western hypocrisy regarding conduct in conflicts—including ones in Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and the Sahel—as well as Western countries’ refugee policies. It is sadly too much to hope that the United States will join the International Criminal Court, which was set up precisely to strike fear into the hearts of those committing war crimes. However, the G-7 summit communique can reaffirm the commitment of all its members to international humanitarian law. Additionally, all G-7 countries should make respect for such law a prerequisite for all security coalitions and arms transfers. This could be modeled on the Leahy Laws in the United States, which are intended to prevent U.S.-funded aid and military assistance from going to foreign security forces that have committed human rights violations, or it could be achieved by incorporating more rigorous evaluations of humanitarian impact in programs, such as Blue Lantern, Washington’s end-use monitoring system for weapons exports. This will need to be a priority as G-7 countries ramp up their support for Ukrainian forces.

Third, a united voice at the summit in favor of real systems of accountability within the international system would make an important statement to the world. One small but real step in the right direction is the Liechtenstein-sponsored resolution that the U.N. General Assembly recently adopted, which would require the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council to justify their use of the veto, which has become a tool of obfuscation and gridlock. With this resolution, permanent members who block council action with the veto will now be held accountable in the 193-member U.N. General Assembly. G-7 leaders should also push to establish independent monitoring mechanisms, including a standing body on the denial of humanitarian access, in conflict zones from Ukraine’s Donbas to Yemen to document and report on violations of international humanitarian law. Independent monitoring is critical to ensure humanitarian action is insulated from the political pressures placed on U.N. agencies that force officials into silence when parties interfere with the delivery of aid, often as a tactic of war.

Finally, it is imperative that already-fragile communities in countries such as Somalia, which relies on Ukraine and the surrounding region for 92 percent of its wheat imports, do not bear the costs of the war in Ukraine. This means seriously tackling the war’s “hunger fallout” by following through on the Global Alliance for Food Security that the G-7 launched in May, expanding aid to help food-insecure countries get through this period, and investing in gender- and climate-sensitive efforts to fix the broken food system and prevent crises like this in the future.

If the G-7 seriously addresses these four points at its upcoming summit, it will reassert its relevance as a political bloc, mitigate the global impacts of the war in Ukraine, establish some real accountability for Russia’s actions, and help win over some of the countries that remain reluctant to call out this war of imperial conquest for what it is. Although the Russian invasion has been slowed by Ukrainian defenses, the reality is that impunity remains on the march 100 days into the war. It’s time to make sure it is in retreat over the next 100.

 

For updates click hompage here