By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Control Of Gaza, Hostage Release, And Ceasefire Talks

The death of Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar will have implications for the structure and dynamics of Hamas’s leadership, its strategic trajectory, and the future control of Gaza, as well as hostage release and ceasefire talks.

If new dynamics created by Sinwar’s killing can be leveraged toward a ceasefire, this could have implications for ending the war in Lebanon. Such a shift would deprive Iran of two of its most valuable regional assets and, in doing so, diminish its pernicious influence in the region. All these developments create new potential, but the U.S. administration will need to take the initiative and grasp the opportunity.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s killing in Gaza is a major win for Israel following a year-long manhunt for the man believed to be the mastermind of the deadliest terror attack in the country’s history.

And it could bring the devastating war in Gaza closer to an end, experts say – if Israel and its allies can seize the opportunity.

Sinwar’s death could be a fatal blow for Hamas because of the way he ran the group.

Before the war, power in Hamas was decentralized – with Gaza political chief Sinwar just one of many leaders, but that changed over the past year.

Sinwar became the sole decision maker, and of course, he grew stronger and stronger as Israel killed more and more important figures, such as, also a military leader, Mohammed Deif.

A year of pounding by Israel, which has left swathes of Gaza devastated and brought a huge toll on civilians, has left Hamas greatly weakened and Sinwar’s killing will create a major power vacuum – which Israel and its allies will no doubt aim to capitalize on.

Pictures of the Hamas leader down in his bunker at the time of his killing

It is unclear whether Sinwar left any instructions on what should happen in the event of his death.

Several names have been floated as possible successors, including Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, who is seen as another hardliner, and Khalil Al Hayya, chief negotiator for Hamas during ceasefire talks in Cairo. Neither has Sinwar’s public profile in Gaza.

But Israel better take advantage of this situation and the major confusion that is probably spreading among the ranks of Hamas.

Netanyahu has insisted his goal is to eliminate Hamas, even though many experts have warned this may not be achievable.

Hamas might be greatly weakened, but it is still capable of firing rockets toward Israel. Meanwhile, the Israeli military recently re-entered northern Gaza, saying Hamas was reemerging in the area.

Sinwar’s killing could also pave the way for a hostage and ceasefire agreement since he was believed to be one of the main blockers of a deal.

Sinwar had little personal incentive to negotiate, given that he was Israel’s No. 1 target.

If Netanyahu does not take advantage of the momentum and does not stand up now and present a new Israeli initiative, even at the cost of ending the war, means that he has decided to abandon the hostages, to prolong the war and fortify his rule.

 

What Happens Next Thus Will Largely Depend On Netanyahu.

The long-time prime minister has been trying to juggle the demands of his far-right coalition partners with pressures from the United States and Israel’s other allies to strike a ceasefire deal and minimize the devastating cost of the war on civilians in Gaza.

Critics of Netanyahu, including US President Joe Biden, have long voiced concerns that he may be dragging out the war in Gaza in an attempt to cling to power, something the Israeli leader has denied.

While still hugely unpopular among a large portion of Israeli society, Netanyahu has staged a remarkable turnaround over the past year, clawing back some of the support he had lost over the years.

Netanyahu has in the past insisted on Israel maintaining some military presence in Gaza after the immediate conflict is over. And some of his coalition partners have gone as far as suggesting Israel should build Jewish settlements inside Gaza.

Rabi said he believed some level of Israeli military presence would be needed to prevent Hamas from rebuilding itself in the strip – something Israel’s allies have warned the government against.

“You have to take control of the civilian infrastructure to empty Hamas of its authority and its legitimacy in the eyes of the Gazans,” he said.

 

 

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