By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Hamas Reasserting Control

This is intended as a continuation of our previous article. Disarming Hamas is key to the U.S.-backed deal to end the Gaza war. The first phase of the agreement, signed Oct. 9 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, appeared to begin successfully on Oct. 13, when Hamas released 20 living Israeli hostages. However, now the deal appears to be hitting some speed bumps. Hamas is re-emerging in Gaza and beginning a reign of terror targeting local dissidents. It will take time and effort to disarm Hamas and replace it as a governing organization in Gaza.

 

Hamas Disarmament

For the peace deal to hold, Hamas must not return to being a threat to Israel and the stability of the region. The war Hamas launched on Oct. 7, 2023 became massively destructive, involving Iranian proxies from Lebanon to Yemen. After two years of war throughout the region, the destruction in Gaza is immense—it will take years to rebuild. There are approximately 2 million people in Gaza, but by the time the area is reconstructed, that number will be higher.

They will need functioning infrastructure and reliable peace to live normal lives. With Hamas in charge of Gaza since 2007, it has not known peace in nearly 20 years. Instead, it has been blockaded by Israel, and there have been wars or clashes almost every year.

They will need functioning infrastructure and reliable peace to live normal lives. With Hamas in charge of Gaza since 2007, it has not known peace in nearly 20 years. Instead, it has been blockaded by Israel, and there have been wars or clashes almost every year.

 

Why Israel Will Remain Longer in Gaza

Pushing hard for a two-state solution would be complicated. The United States would have to help orchestrate several critical processes simultaneously: setting in place Gaza reconstruction mechanisms to be ready to operate the day the IDF leaves, bringing reluctant Arab parties on board to help maintain law and order, and setting up interim governance in Gaza, keeping the remnants of Hamas at bay, compelling the PA to restructure itself so it can regain the confidence of the Palestinian public, and addressing legitimate Israeli security concerns.

After such a long war, the death toll in Gaza has risen to extraordinary levels. Amid heavy bombardment that has turned the territory into a wasteland. Commercial satellite images also show the Israeli military building up troops and equipment near the border with Gaza that would support a possible new ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave, according to three U.S. officials and a former official who viewed the imagery.

In an interview with CBS published on Oct. 14, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demanded that Hamas fulfill its obligations under the deal and disarm. U.S. President Donald Trump has also said Hamas should disarm, but has appeared to be more flexible about the timeline.

The issue of disarming Hamas is going to hang over Gaza as the deal progresses. For instance, U.S. Central Command said Oct. 15 that Hamas should “suspend violence” and seize on the historic opportunity for peace by “fully standing down, strictly adhering to President Trump’s 20-point peace plan and disarming without delay.” Will this prod Hamas to begin to accept the deal and disarm? Even if Hamas wanted to disarm, how would it go about doing so?

 

No Power Vacuums

There are multiple layers to the challenge of disarmament. First, there needs to be a ready alternative security force in Gaza. Having various militias and clans vying for power is not in the interest of Gaza. It’s worth recalling that Hamas didn’t launch the October 7 attack by itself—it worked with other terrorist groups, such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Disarming Hamas, then, is just one part of removing arms from extremists in Gaza; other groups are waiting to step into a power vacuum.

Another challenge of disarmament is verifying and defining it. Hamas began the October 7 war with tens of thousands of rockets and missiles. It had 24 battalions of men, with large numbers of RPGs and other munitions. Although Hamas has lost many fighters, it still has many more.

Does disarmament mean that it lays down its heavy weapons but keeps some of its rifles and handguns?

Even if it did hand over heavier weapons and rockets, who would verify the process is complete? Hamas doesn’t appear likely to give these weapons to Israel. A security force capable of receiving the weapons seems to be needed.

Another challenge is the need to provide civilians in Gaza with an environment free of Hamas’ influence. During the two years of war, Israel didn’t attempt to cordon off an area where civilians could abide freely, a difference from other successful wars against terrorist and insurgent groups.

For instance, when fighting against ISIS in Mosul, the Iraqi army systematically pushed ISIS out of the city and enabled Iraqi civilians to move into temporary camps, and later return to their homes. During the two years of war in Gaza, civilians were asked to evacuate to areas controlled by Hamas, essentially cementing the group’s power.

Hamas said it has handed over all hostage remains it can access, saying “significant efforts and special equipment” are needed to recover the remaining dead captives in Gaza. A source told CNN that Israel believes Hamas has access to at least six other bodies.

In a stark warning, President Donald Trump said if Hamas keeps killing people in Gaza, “we will have no choice but to go in and kill them.”

Health officials in Gaza say Israel has returned a total of 120 bodies of Palestinians held during the war, some of which “show signs of abuse, beating, handcuffing, and blindfolding.”

Israeli and US officials say Israel is now allowing the amount of aid into Gaza required under the ceasefire agreement, including fuel and gas. The Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza will likely open on Sunday, according to Israel’s foreign minister.

 

 

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