By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has transformed from an Islamist militia into an authoritarian statelet, with its leadership seeking to consolidate power and exert greater control over northern Idlib. The group's public appearance of moderation has been used to appeal for its removal from the U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations list, but this has not been met with genuine ideological change. Yet HTS is supporting foreign terrorist groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

This dichotomy between official messaging and leadership's individual opinions has led some analysts to argue that HTS's crackdown on al Qaeda and ISIS factions, as well as its ideological moderation, should be viewed more as an effort to consolidate power within the organization than a genuine change in ideology.

 

The Arab World

 

The profound effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First World War can be seen echoing throughout the history of the 20th century, contributing to the making of what became the Syria of Assad. Several instances, like the machinations of Sharif Hussein Ibn Ali, 1853-1931, and the debates surrounding the Sykes–Picot agreement, have shaped the Middle East.

This was followed by rumors that the Assads could be overthrown.

Then, around a year ago, the war that President Bashar al-Assad seemed to have won was turned upside down. A rebel force had broken out of Idlib, a Syrian province on the border with Turkey, and was storming towards Damascus. It was led by a man known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and his militia group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Jolani was a nom-de-guerre, reflecting his family's roots in the Golan Heights, Syria's southern highlands, annexed by Israel after it was occupied in 1967. His real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

One year later, he is the interim president, and Bashar al-Assad is in a gilded exile in Russia.

Sharaa has found the going easier abroad than at home. He has won the argument with Saudi Arabia and the West that he is Syria's best chance of a stable future.

In May, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia arranged a brief meeting between Sharaa and US President Donald Trump. Afterwards, Trump called him a "young, attractive, tough guy".

At home, Syrians know their weaknesses and the problems Syria faces better than foreigners. Sharaa's writ does not run in the north-east, where the Kurds are in control, or parts of the south where Syrian Druze, another minority sect, want a separate state backed by their Israeli allies.

On the coast, Alawites, Assad's sect, fear a repeat of the massacres they suffered in March.

A year ago, the new masters of Damascus, like most of the armed rebels in Syria, were Sunni Islamists. Sharaa, their leader, had a long history of fighting for al-Qaeda in Iraq, where he had been imprisoned by the Americans, and then was a senior commander with the group that became the Islamic State.

In the long term, the post-Assad era could create opportunities to renew diplomatic talks between Syria and Israel, depending on the emergence of a stable and moderate central government in Syria. Until then, Israel has an opportunity to improve its standing and influence in the region, bolstered by its relationships with the United States, Jordan, and the countries of the Abraham Accords.

 

 

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