By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Hezbollah, Israel, And Tehran

Hezbollah would have difficulty saying no if Tehran asked it to get more involved in the war, even though the group retains independent decision-making power.

As Hamas fires missiles and rockets from its Gaza stronghold while its fighters ravage Israel, the Israeli government faces another potential conflict on its northern border with a far more formidable foe: the Lebanese Hezbollah. On Sunday, a day after Hamas struck Israel, the Lebanese group fired missiles and artillery at the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights in a show of “solidarity,” Israel, in response, attacked a Hezbollah post in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is a highly skilled militant group that has long sought to support the Palestinian cause. Yet, fully joining the conflict and opening up a second front in the war against Israel would be a massive risk for Hezbollah. It may simply prefer to watch the Palestinians fight and die while launching limited, symbolic attacks and cheering them on from the sidelines.

If Hezbollah did more than fire a few missiles in solidarity, it would put the current conflict— already the deadliest for Israel since the Second Intifada—on steroids. Hezbollah has proved to be Israel’s most formidable foe since the group’s inception in the early 1980s. Hezbollah initially fought to expel Israel from Lebanon, succeeding in 2000.

In 2006, the world saw another taste of what Hezbollah could do when it fought a 34-day war with Israel. Although Hezbollah did not intend to start an all-out war when it launched a successful cross-border raid that year that killed eight Israeli soldiers and captured two more, it still fought fiercely. In the conflict, Israel suffered at least 157 dead in military operations and from Hezbollah rockets, which rained down on Israel throughout the war despite air and ground operations intended to silence the fire. Hezbollah lost far more people, but it heralded the war as a victory—and Israelis agreed. Almost two-thirds of Israelis thought their prime minister should resign following the conflict.

The next conflict could be far worse. Iran trains the group and provides it with hundreds of millions of dollars annually. With substantial Iranian help, Hezbollah has expanded its arsenal and now has vast numbers of rockets and missiles, even more than in 2006. These can strike deep into Israel. Hezbollah has also acquired a range of anti-ship cruise and surface-to-air missiles, which would complicate any Israeli operations. Iran even helped build Hezbollah’s cyber capabilities.

Hezbollah is far more formidable than Hamas, whose current operations are already a nightmare for Israel. Hamas is confined to a narrow strip of land in Gaza, and its armed forces have had little success against Israel—which is why, in the past, Hamas largely confined itself to missile and rocket attacks and using suicide bombs and other forms of terrorism. Hezbollah, by contrast, controls parts of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and much of Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley region. Hezbollah also has seats in the Lebanese parliament. In recent years, he has controlled several government ministries directly—along with political allies who control others—and has exercised a de facto veto over government policy in Lebanon. In addition, although Iran backs both groups, Hezbollah has received far more patronage.

Hezbollah is also more skilled than other militant groups—perhaps the most qualified in the world. In addition to fighting Israel in 2006, Hezbollah forces have fought in the Syrian civil war almost since its inception in 2011, proving a stabilizing force for the tottering regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Missions included patrolling the Syria-Lebanon border, fighting Sunni insurgents in several Syrian cities, and using drones to strike Islamic State targets.

In an all-out conflict with Israel, missile strikes and cross-border raids might also be accompanied by international terrorism, with Hezbollah striking Israeli targets worldwide. In 2012, Hezbollah attacked a bus in Bulgaria, killing five Israeli tourists and a Bulgarian. In 1992 and 1994, Hezbollah carried out even more devastating attacks in Argentina, killing 29 and 87 people in attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets there.

In addition to being able to strike Israel, Hezbollah has a motive.

Hezbollah supports Hamas and has played an essential role in the group’s evolution. It has trained and indoctrinated Hamas fighters in Lebanon, trying to instill its skills and worldview.

Hezbollah also sees itself as a model for Hamas. After Hezbollah expelled Israel from Lebanon in 2000, the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, gave a famous speech comparing Israel to a “spider web,” claiming that it looked strong from afar but that it lacked strength because its people were unwilling to sacrifice—as a result, Nasrallah said, you can brush it aside.

Nasrallah has urged Hamas and other groups to emulate Hezbollah by constantly fighting Israel, even if it means heavy casualties, noting that Israel can be defeated if willing to fight and sacrifice. By implication, cease-fires, such as those Hamas has agreed to in the past with Israel, are seen as a path to failure. Yet Hezbollah, in recent years, has focused on Syria and only carried out limited attacks on Israel; restoring its bona fides as the leading revolutionary group by getting more deeply involved in the conflict with Israel would thus fit its self-image.

There are also credible reports that Iran played a significant role in helping plot the latest round of Hamas attacks. Like its Hezbollah proxy, Iran sees Israel as fundamentally illegitimate. It may seek to disrupt regional trends, such as potential Saudi-Israel normalization (which Tehran sees, with considerable justification, as designed to counter Iran), by promoting anti-Israel violence. As Iran’s closest partner in the Arab world and a primary recipient of its funding, Hezbollah would have a hard time saying no if Tehran asked it to get more involved in the war, even though the group retains independent decision-making power.

Too little of the constant hum of the Arab-Israeli conflict breaks through in the United States. Occasional shocking attacks and sustained battles creep onto major papers' pages but then fade into obscurity.

But on the morning of Oct. 7, Hamas broke through—attacking Israel on multiple fronts, killing and kidnapping civilians and soldiers, and unleashing a barrage of thousands of rockets. By nightfall, hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians were dead. Dozens of Israelis were being held hostage inside Gaza. This, said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is war.

 

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