By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Alternative Future

Two years after the worst attack on Israel in its history, the country stands at a crossroads. Israel is not a failed state. It is a great state with a failed government. Its foundations remain strong. Israel is undeniably in crisis, but the source of the crisis is not structural. It is political. In many ways, that makes the crisis more dangerous, but that also makes it easier to resolve. The solution comes from replacing the top rather than rebuilding from the bottom.

Consider the situation just three years ago, before the current government came to power. This was before it undertook the judicial overhaul that sought to dismantle Israel’s democratic foundations and before Hamas’s butchery on October 7, 2023. Then, Israel was known for its innovative tech-driven economy, its strong and vibrant democracy, and its resolutely independent judicial system. It was a country with more Nobel Prize winners than all 22 Arab countries put together; diplomatic and economic agreements spanning the globe from Washington to Abu Dhabi; durable peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan; extensive scientific and commercial collaborations with Europe; Oscar nominees; and Eurovision winners. Israel was a country that blended a profound philosophical and historical depth with the best of modernity. Back then, our enemies sought to kill us—they were just unsuccessful. Then, too, there were anti-Semites, but nobody listened to them. Then, too, Israel had its share of extremists, but they didn’t lead the country.

The crisis is the result of an extremist and failed government, led by a prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is implicated in criminal cases and has lost the support of the Israeli public. His years in power have corrupted him and those around him. This government is openly contemptuous of the principle of a democratic State of Israel committed to Western liberal values. In its place, it seeks to install a theocratic and illiberal regime, one that is exempt from media scrutiny and free of the nuisance of concepts such as the rule of law and the constant threat of free and fair elections.

Now, with U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for the end of the war in Gaza and elections that must take place in the next 12 months, Israel has a chance to reinvent itself. Bringing the country back from the brink requires, first and foremost, getting the hostages home, but it also requires getting the extremists out of power. At stake is the future of Israel itself.

 

Failure at the Top

Nothing better encapsulates the disconnect between Israel’s government and its people than the October 7 disaster. Panicked and paralyzed, the government failed to deal with both the security situation and the subsequent domestic repercussions: addressing the hundreds of thousands of internally displaced Israelis, both from towns around Gaza and along the northern border with Lebanon, which was under continual assault by Hezbollah; undertaking the dramatic rebuilding that is still required in southern and northern Israel; and crucially, healing a traumatized nation. Israelis talk of the failures not only of October 7 but of October 8, as well.

By contrast, Israeli civil society quickly mobilized and rushed to fill the vacuum. Within a day, the Israeli tech industry took command of the situation, supporting victims and using its world-renowned creativity to prevent economic collapse. Reserve soldiers turned out in record numbers, and young Israelis took to social media to explain to the world what Hamas is and why the terrorist group attacked us. The opposition I lead stepped up to support the political and organizational effort, and the Jewish people in the diaspora stood by Israel’s side in the struggle to bring the hostages back home. Where the government demonstrated contemptible weakness in its disarray and failure to marshal government resources, the Israeli public showed resilience, grit, and the determination to do what was needed.

Two years later, Israel is at a turning point. There is a real risk of international sanctions, brain drain, and endless war. But Israel also has the opportunity to reinvent itself and build on its solid foundations. It is one of the only countries in the world that was founded as a democracy, and that democratic spirit runs deep through the majority of its citizens. The Israeli people will not relinquish the country’s unique identity as a Jewish and democratic state without a fight. Israel’s judicial institutions remain strong; its military and security services understand their role is to serve the state, not the government; and its economy remains a remarkable success story—even now. Although all these crucial institutions are being willfully degraded by the government, Israel is not yet at the point of no return. Israelis will have the opportunity to change the trajectory—and all it will take is one piece of paper in one ballot box on election day. “Jewish faith,” wrote Jonathan Sacks, the late chief rabbi of the United Kingdom and one of the foremost thinkers and philosophers in modern Jewish history, “is written in the future tense.”

None of that takes away from the depths of the national and international crisis in which Israel finds itself. October 7 exposed some ugly cracks. In the two years since then, the gap between the government and the people has only grown. The country is more polarized and divided than ever, a situation exacerbated by the government continuously ignoring the will of the people and dragging on a war that no longer serves Israel’s national security interests. Israel’s international standing has never been worse. At the United Nations in September, 142 countries voted for the establishment of a Palestinian state and only ten voted against. 

The world has turned on Israel. The Abraham Accords are at risk of being frozen or reversed. Israel has lost its long-standing bipartisan support in Washington. The cries of “from the river to the sea” on college campuses are an open call for the genocidal destruction of the Jewish state. When students at Columbia University and the University of Tehran scream the same slogans, Jews are right to be concerned.

Misguided statements by the government’s extremist ministers are at the top of news broadcasts around the world, and Netanyahu and those around him react by accusing anyone who expresses criticism of anti-Semitism. But a victim mentality will not make things better. Not everyone who disagrees with the government is an anti-Semite, and Israel accomplishes nothing by wallowing in its woe. None of this is what Israelis want. Every opinion poll conducted in Israel over the past two years tells the same story: Israeli voters want change. They want leaders who can present a proud and optimistic vision of their country’s future, rooted in its existing capabilities. That is the vision Israel should present to the world. Its citizens understand that the government has blundered from one crisis and failure to the next, and they believe there is an alternative.

 

A Different Israel

The alternative is a government led from the center, one that will drive systemic change in national security, foreign relations, the economy, government institutions, and our relationships with our neighbors. The depth of the crisis is precisely the reason Israel is readier than ever to enter the next stage of its life cycle. All it needs is the right leadership acting in pursuit of a clear vision.

The alternative is to end the war in Gaza. Israel must work with Trump, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, and a coalition of international partners to implement the 20-point Trump plan—get the hostages back, stop the fighting, and ensure that enough food and medicine enter Gaza to end the humanitarian crisis. Israel must establish a secure perimeter around Gaza from which it can protect its borders against further terrorist attacks. As the plan foresees, instead of being controlled by Hamas, the territory must be placed under the supervision of a transitional authority, which will manage daily life in Gaza and oversee its reconstruction. This coalition would include Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as a civil arm of the Palestinian Authority. If the Trump plan is not implemented, the break in Israeli society will be dramatic and the damage hard to imagine. Israelis need their hostages home; they need the process of rebuilding to begin.

The alternative is also a reworked understanding of Israel’s national security doctrine. The October 7 massacre taught Israelis that we cannot afford to let our guard down even for a moment when it comes to murderous Islamist terrorist organizations. But that is not the only lesson. National security rests above all on a strong military, and that requires more than just targeting a nuclear facility at Natanz or launching rockets at central Doha. Security also requires nurturing the regional and global alliances necessary to bolster deterrence, establishing and maintaining strategic depth and international legitimacy, and building a united front against the threat of radical Islam, as well as the hegemonic ambitions of Iran and concerning trends in Turkey.

To do this, Israel should expand the Abraham Accords to include additional countries, including Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. It should take advantage of the opportunities that exist with Lebanon and Syria and strengthen the accords and initiatives that I launched as foreign minister in 2022 through the Negev Forum, which brought Israel together with Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States. Revitalizing these relationships, however, cannot happen until the war is over and Gaza is put under new leadership.

The alternative is also a far-reaching national investment in artificial intelligence and new energy infrastructure such as small module nuclear reactors, which are the future of energy and will transform the global market as it struggles to meet growing demand. In the coming years, Israel will need to transition from being the “startup nation” to being the “scale-up nation”—leveraging its innovation capabilities to upgrade vital national systems such as education, health care, and transportation. These are fundamental to Israel’s future security and prosperity, yet they have been allowed to languish. To bring Israel back to its rightful place among leading Western liberal democracies, the next government will need to invest in fostering the sources of Israel’s soft power—its productive middle class and successful tech sector.

The alternative is an Israeli society that addresses the structural problems that have plagued it for three generations, and especially now. A functioning and effective government will require the ultra-Orthodox community to enlist in the army and enter the job market. A functioning and effective government must help boost employment among Arab women, draft a constitution to formalize once and for all the balance of powers between the judicial and executive branches, invest in housing for young people, and tackle the skyrocketing cost of living.

 

The Choice

The alternative is for Israelis to remind themselves, and others, that Israel’s vaunted status as the only democracy in the Middle East cannot be taken for granted. It is a commitment that the country’s leaders must constantly uphold. Israel’s greatest ally has always been, and will continue to be, the United States. But to retain its place in the democratic family, Israel must also reset its relations with the European Union, as well as with Australia, Japan, India, South Korea, the United Kingdom, and all the other great democracies of the world. These relationships should be based on shared values and a shared struggle against increasing illiberal and theocratic tendencies around the world and the dangers posed by toxic social media and unhindered populism. That is why Israel should also strengthen its bonds with sympathetic countries that share our vision for the future, such as the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.

The alternative may not include a Palestinian state in the first instance—not after what was done to Israelis on October 7. But unlike the current government, most Israelis recognize that the Palestinians exist and that we must one day separate from them. That process will be long and arduous. And it must begin with the Palestinians demonstrating their ability to effectively govern themselves. The burden of proof is now on the Palestinians, not on Israel. They must prove that they can effectively fight terrorism and ensure that an organization such as Hamas cannot seize power again. 

The Palestinian Authority must not only commit to fighting incitement but act; it must not only promise governance reforms but implement them; it must not only pay lip service to tackling corruption but root out its causes. The people of Israel have a right to live in peace and security, without the threat of a failed terror state on their borders. The Palestinians must prove to the Israelis that it is possible before any process can begin. Israel, for its part, must take annexation off the table and fight far more effectively to end the scourge of violence inflicted on Palestinians by extremist Israeli settlers. The former risks sacrificing Israel’s regional integration with no strategic benefit; the latter is a moral stain on the country.

Israel’s future will be determined neither by its enemies nor by its current government. It will be determined by its citizens. After two of the most traumatic years in our existence, a clear majority of Israelis want a new direction. The world looks at Israel and sees a country in crisis. I look at it and see a country holding its breath. It is waiting for a new leadership to lead it down a different path. Israel’s future rests on the political decisions that Israelis will make in the coming year. Should the current government stay in power, Israelis may instead find themselves condemned to international isolation, poverty, and increasing social rifts. If Israelis choose courage over cowardice, openness over isolation, prosperity over religious zealotry, the country’s best days will yet lie ahead.

 

 

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