By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Iran Launched 200 Drones And Missiles At Israel

The U.S. called on the Security Council to condemn Iran’s attack on Israel on Saturday. Wood echoed U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, who briefed the council during Sunday’s emergency session.

World powers urged restraint on Sunday for fear that Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strikes on Israel could spark a wider war in the Middle East, as the United Nations heard a call for new sanctions against Tehran.

Iran launched the attack, its first ever to directly target Israeli territory, in retaliation for a deadly air strike widely blamed on Israel that destroyed Tehran's consular building in Syria's capital early this month.

The strikes raised Middle East tensions to a dangerous new level six months into a deadly conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, prompting international cries of alarm.

"Neither the region nor the world can afford more war," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the body's Security Council as it met to discuss Saturday's Iranian attack.

"The Middle East is on the brink," he warned. "The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate."

Israel's UN envoy, Gilad Erdan, urged the Council to "impose all possible sanctions on Iran before it's too late" and "condemn Iran for their terror".

G7 leaders earlier said they were ready to "take further measures" in response to "destabilizing initiatives".

Iran's UN envoy, Amir Saeid Iravani, retorted that the Islamic Republic was exercising its "inherent right to self-defence" and "had no choice" but to act. He insisted his country did "not seek escalation or war", but would respond to any "threat or aggression".

 

Israel Intercepts Projectiles

Through Saturday night, air raid sirens wailed and Israelis sought cover in bunkers and shelters as missile defence systems and warplanes intercepted drones and missiles.

Israel and its allies intercepted the vast majority of the more than 300 incoming projectiles, the Israeli army said, reporting 12 people injured and no deaths, but the attack sharply heightened fears of an Israeli counterstrike.

"Together we thwarted Iran's attack, Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a televised statement.

"This was the first time that such a coalition worked together against the threat of Iran and its proxies in the Middle East."

G7 leaders condemned Iran's attack and called for "restraint" on all sides, European Council President Charles Michel wrote on X after a video conference.

"We will continue all our efforts to work towards de-escalation. Ending the crisis in Gaza as soon as possible, notably through an immediate ceasefire, will make a difference."

Israel's top ally the United States also urged caution and calm.

"We don't want to see this escalate," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told NBC. "We're not looking for a wider war with Iran."

 

US Warns Against Retaliation

A senior US official said President Joe Biden had told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington would not offer military support for any retaliation on Iran.

"We would not be a part of any response they do," the official told reporters on a call, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We would not envision ourselves participating in such an act."

Biden reaffirmed the United States' "ironclad" support for Israel but also appeared to guide it away from a military response against the two countries' common adversary, Iran.

News outlet Axios reported that Biden had told Netanyahu he should "take the win", and that Washington would oppose an Israeli counterattack.

Before Tehran attacked, Israel's military had warned Iran it would suffer the "consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further".

Netanyahu on Sunday met with his war cabinet, formed at the outset of the Gaza conflict following the bloody October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday cautioned Israel against a "reckless" retaliation, warning this would spark "a decisive and much stronger response".

 

Missiles, Attack Drones

Iran's mission to the United Nations also warned Washington to keep out of its conflict with Israel.

It added in a message on X that "the matter can be deemed concluded".

"However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe."

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on Sunday that "the campaign is not over yet -– we must remain alert".

Iran said its attack came in response to the April 1 air strike on Tehran's consulate building in Damascus, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards including two generals.

The Israeli military said that while 170 drones and 30 cruise missiles were shot down before reaching Israel, a few of the 110 ballistic missiles did get through.

One of those wounded was a seven-year-old girl near Israel's southern town of Arad who was in intensive care.

Iran's allies, including Lebanon's Hezbollah, joined the attack. Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels also launched drones at Israel, security agency Ambrey said.

Officials said British and other allied jets and Jordanian defences also shot down incoming projectiles, mostly before they reached Israeli airspace.

 

'Satisfying Iran's Honor'

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Tehran had notified the United States ahead of the attack after giving neighbouring states 72 hours' notice.

Iran had earlier seized an Israeli-linked container vessel in the Gulf, putting the whole region on alert.

Iran's army declared that its attack was "completed successfully", and Syria also said Iran had exercised its "right to self-defence".

Iran's "Operation Honest Promise... achieved all its objectives", armed forces chief of staff Mohammad Bagheri said.

Hundreds of Iranians waved Iranian and Palestinian flags on Sunday in Tehran's Palestine Square.

Analyst Nick Heras of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy told AFP that Saturday's attack was "all about satisfying the honour of Iran".

"This recent escalation in the Middle East is about the treacherous state of US and Iran relations, in which Israel is just one arena of conflict," he said.

 

'Spiral Of Violence'

In besieged Gaza, thousands of inhabitants flooded the coastal road north Sunday after hearing that several people managed to cross a closed checkpoint towards Gaza City, despite Israel denying it was open.

The war in Gaza began with Hamas's unprecedented October 7 attack, which resulted in the deaths of 1,170 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli figures.

Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed at least 33,729 people in Gaza, mostly women and children, according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.

Late Saturday, Hamas said it had submitted its response to a truce plan presented by US, Qatari and Egyptian mediators at talks that started in Cairo on April 7.

Hamas said it was sticking to its previous demands, insisting on "a permanent ceasefire" and the withdrawal of the Israeli army.

Israel's Mossad spy agency called this a rejection of the proposal, accusing Hamas of "continuing to exploit the tension with Iran" and aiming for "a general escalation in the region".

 

How Might A War Between Israel And Iran Be Fought?

At this point, the two likeliest scenarios appear to be a missile barrage into Israeli territory, either from proxies in Lebanon or from Iran itself, or a swarming drone assault. A more remote possibility is that Iran could direct proxies to deploy militants on the ground from Syria or Lebanon.

The one precedent for Iran attacking Israeli territory came in 2018, when Teheran fired rockets from Syria on positions in the Golan Heights.  

The details of Iran’s current capabilities contained in a US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment released with little fanfare on April 11 suggested that any Iranian attack on Israel would likely be a combination of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones.

“Teheran’s missile force is increasingly augmented by Iran’s UAVs and serves as the regime’s primary conventional deterrent against attacks on its personnel and territory,” the agency said. It added that Iran has a “substantial inventory” of ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking targets 2,000km away – putting Israel well within range.

Israeli fighters would be expected to strike back, including those in its fleet of stealthy F-35I Adir and non-stealthy F-15I fighters. An F-35 made aviation history when the Israeli Air Force announced in November that it had shot down a cruise missile from the south-east headed towards Israeli airspace.

Israel scrambled navigational signals over the Tel Aviv metropolitan area early this month in preparation for an Iranian attack, a showcase of its capabilities. 

Another likelihood is cyber war. More than a decade ago, malware known as Stuxnet compromised operations at an Iranian nuclear enrichment facility in what was suspected to have been a US and Israeli operation. Iran has also launched attacks of its own, including a hack that sought to cripple computers and water flow for two Israeli districts, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

 

How Do Israeli And Iranian Military Capabilities Compare?

Israel’s forces are vastly superior to Iran’s when it comes to technology. Iran, however, has massive stockpiles of cheap but effective weapons in its arsenal.

Since 2022, Iran has provided more than 1,000 Shahed-136 UAVs, as well as Shahed-131 and Mohajer-6 UAVs, to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In May, Iran began assisting Russia in establishing a Shahed-136 UAV production facility in Russia, according to the DIA. So, it is safe to assume that Iran has hundreds if not thousands of one-way drones in its inventory to attack Israel.

Israel would counter ballistic missiles with its Arrow interceptors, and drone attacks possibly with David’s Sling air defence systems and perhaps with a system called Drone Guard made by ELTA Systems.

People in Teheran on April 5 attending the funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a strike in Syria, which Iran blamed on Israel.

 

Who Are Their Allies? What Roles Might They Play?

Iran’s most important allies are the Shi’ite militias in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen that it supports with money, weapons and training.

The Lebanese militia Hezbollah would be positioned to play the most significant role. It has fought repeated battles with Israel and has been regularly firing missiles, mortars and rockets into northern Israel since war broke out in October between Israel and the Iran-backed militant Palestinian group Hamas.

Iran’s only state ally in the Middle East is Syria. The government of President Bashar al-Assad would be unlikely to be of assistance, given that it is still struggling to gain control over the entire country following the outbreak of civil war in 2011. 

Iran has good relations with Russia, though its war in Ukraine would likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil though it remains sanctioned by the US and allies. 

Israel has the US on its side. The US is already expediting shipments of munitions to Israel to help it fight Hamas. Among the US forces in the Middle East region are two navy destroyers that moved to the eastern Mediterranean in early April, according to a navy official: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defence.

Early in the Israel-Hamas war, the Pentagon moved its newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group into the eastern Mediterranean. It has since returned home.

The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group is on its way from operations against the Houthis. Each bristles with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft.

In addition, 2,000 Marines were put on heightened alert for potential mobilisation.

Iran’s only state ally in the Middle East is Syria. The government of President Bashar al-Assad would be unlikely to be of assistance, given that it is still struggling to gain control over the entire country following the outbreak of civil war in 2011. 

Iran has good relations with Russia, though its war in Ukraine would likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil though it remains sanctioned by the US and allies. 

Israel has the US on its side. The US is already expediting shipments of munitions to Israel to help it fight Hamas. Among the US forces in the Middle East region are two navy destroyers that moved to the eastern Mediterranean in early April, according to a navy official: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defence.

Early in the Israel-Hamas war, the Pentagon moved its newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group into the eastern Mediterranean. It has since returned home.

The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group is on its way from operations against the Houthis. Each bristles with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft.

In addition, 2,000 Marines were put on heightened alert for potential mobilisation.

Hezbollah’s arsenal contains more than 70,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range and precision-guided missiles, according to Israeli intelligence. An escalation of its attacks on Israel could test the country’s defences at a time when it is also confronting Iran and Hamas.

Iran’s only state ally in the Middle East is Syria. The government of President Bashar al-Assad would be unlikely to be of assistance, given that it is still struggling to gain control over the entire country following the outbreak of civil war in 2011. 

Iran has good relations with Russia, though its war in Ukraine would likely limit its ability to help, and with China, which has bought Iranian oil though it remains sanctioned by the US and allies. 

Israel has the US on its side. The US is already expediting shipments of munitions to Israel to help it fight Hamas. Among the US forces in the Middle East region are two navy destroyers that moved to the eastern Mediterranean in early April, according to a navy official: the USS Carney and the USS Arleigh Burke, both capable of air defence.

Early in the Israel-Hamas war, the Pentagon moved its newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford, and its battle group into the eastern Mediterranean. It has since returned home.

The Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier strike group is on its way from operations against the Houthis. Each bristles with F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets and other advanced aircraft.

In addition, 2,000 Marines were put on heightened alert for potential mobilisation.

 

How Might Arab States React?

An Israel-Iran war would put many of the countries in the region in a difficult position.

Four Arab countries made peace deals with Israel in 2020 via the so-called Abraham Accords. Their distrust of Iran was part of what brought them together. But it is unlikely any Arab state would stand with Israel in a confrontation against a fellow Muslim country, let alone one as powerful as Iran. 

Iran and Saudi Arabia last year restored diplomatic relations after a seven-year freeze. Saudi Arabia has been exploring the possibility of normalising ties with Israel as part of a broader deal in which it hopes to attain US security guarantees, and it would likely try to avoid becoming embroiled in the conflict.

 

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