By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The importance of the Battle for Kherson

Over the last two weeks, Ukraine has bombardedvitaly bridges along the Dnipro River successfully and forced Russian reinforcements onto vulnerable floating bridges, the first step in its plan to encircle, siege, and eventually retake the city of Kherson—a strategically important port city quickly captured by Russia in March. If successful, the liberation of Kherson would be one of Ukraine’s most significant victories since Russia launched its invasion.

Kherson is the only regional capital in Ukraine successfully captured by invading Russian forces in the south, taken in the early days of the war. Kyiv has spent months preparing for its now-underway late summer counter-offensive as Ukrainian forces trained upon and began to use heavy weapons from Western partners, such as High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). After weeks of slowly advancing into the Kherson region and retaking 44 villages and towns, the liberation of Kherson would show the world that Ukraine has the means and know-how to take the wind out of Russia’s sails and follow through on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pledge to liberate Ukrainians under occupation.

The only Russian-held city on the western side of the Dnipro River, Kherson’s fate may be a weathervane for the course of the war. If Ukraine retakes the city and disables key bridges, it could effectively end Russia’s advances from the south by preventing both sides from crossing the river. But if Russia manages to hold onto Kherson, the city could become the gateway for a new Russian offensive to conquer the critical port city of Odesa.

Ukraine’s likely battle plan, laid out in detail by the Kyiv Independent, relies on a careful combination of all the modern weapons systems supplied by the West, including multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), artillery systems, and drones. While Russia has often employed its overwhelming artillery advantage to demolish and dismember the cities it attempts to conquer, Ukraine plans to cut Kherson’s undersupplied occupiers off from Russian reinforcements moving up from the south. At the same time, much of Russia’s fighting force is concentrated on the Donbas in the east. According to British defense officials, Ukraine’s plan is working, and Kherson is “virtually cut off” from other occupied territories.

Ukraine’s strategy relies on successfully damaging three critical bridges along the Dnipro near Kherson—two on the city’s outskirts at Antonivka, as well as the Kakhovska Hydroelectric Power Plant, which also serves as a bridge. With these routes for Russian heavy weapons and armor out, the only viable path for Russian reinforcements from the south to get to Kherson would be a river crossing near Zaporizhzhia—nearly 125 miles away. Ukraine’s plan cuts both ways, as damaging these bridges also prevents Ukrainian forces from using them to fight further into the south.

On July 27, the footage was posted of one of the Antonivka bridges riddled with holes from artillery strikes.An extendedg siege of isolated Russian forces in Kherson could be lengthy. Still, it could allow Ukrainiantroopss to avoid the kind of apocalyptic campaigns used by Russia to take cities like Mariupol — but only if Ukraine’s newly acquired HIMARS and counter-battery systems can be used in concert to keep Russian forces from building temporary river crossings and to defend against Russian rocket strikes.

With 12 HIMARS already employed by Ukrainian forces on top of other Western rocket systems and four more HIMARS on the way from the United States, Kyiv and the Pentagon say the rocket system has been a game changer, allows for precision strikes against more than 100 high-value targets. Firing behind enemy lines to destroy Russian ammunition depots—Ukraine says it has destroyed more than 50 using the rocket system—and command posts, these rocket systems are giving Ukraine the ability to keep eating into Russia’s strained logistics.

But while heavy weapons like HIMARS have proven effective in precision strikes behind Russian lines and in preparing for the siege of Kherson, they’ll be even more essential to holding off any Russian attempts to reinforce Kherson or build temporary bridges across the Dnipro River. According to Kyiv Independent defense reporter Illia Ponomarenko, this operation would require well-equipped and organized infantry brigades protected by air cover and counter-battery capabilities.

More importantly, if Ukraine is going to have a chance of holding Kherson and retaking further territory in the south, Kyiv says it needs longer-range ammunition for HIMARS, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which would take the Western-supplied rocket system from a range of 50 miles to nearly 200 miles. Despite White House explanations that it won’t give Kyiv weapons that can “strike into Russia,” any weapon can strike across Ukraine’s border if it’s close enough—not to mention that Ukraine has no desire to conquer Russian territory, only retake its own. But even if Washington remains unwilling to give Kyiv the ideal tools it needs, it could compromise and send rocket ammunition with an extended range of 100 miles, which would still help Ukraine’s forces to safeguard their crucial heavy weapons far behind the frontlines.

Ukraine’s counter-offensive can’t come soon enough, as occupied Kherson has quickly become a nightmare for its residents. A new Human Rights Watch report details how Russian occupiers in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions arbitrarily “disappear,” unlawfully detain, and torture those at their mercy. Dozens of residents describe brutal interrogations and torture, including one man beaten with a baseball bat and others who suffered electric shocks and burns. Two Territorial Defense fighters died in captivity. Moscow is officially annexing Kherson and has now deployed officials to conduct a faux Crimea-style referendum on joining Russia, which could give Russia legal cover for deploying conscripts to the area. With Russian forces exhausted from near-continuous fighting, the ability to send fresh, if unseasoned, troops into the area would bolster their defenses and give Moscow more options for a new southern offensive.

The geographical focus of the Russo-Ukrainian War looks set to switch from east to south in the coming days as Ukraine’s military steps up efforts to liberate Kherson. The unfolding campaign to regain control over this strategically vital southern Ukrainian city is likely to be the most important engagement since the Battle of Kyiv. It could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the war. 

Preparations for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country have been underway since May. After weeks of minor advances in the surrounding countryside that have seen Ukrainian forces liberate more than fifty towns and villages, there is a mounting sense that the Battle of Kherson is about to begin.

A Ukrainian victory would have substantial psychological and practical implications for both sides. It would demonstrate to international audiences that the Ukrainian military can force Russia to retreat from well-established defensive positions and convince Ukraine’s partners to continue providing military and financial support. Meanwhile, defeat in Kherson would be humiliating for Vladimir Putin and spark further demoralization within the ranks of his depleted invasion force.  

Kherson’s fate will shape the future direction of the war. As the sole regional capital captured by Putin’s troops and the only major Ukrainian city on the western side of the Dnipro River currently in Kremlin hands, Kherson holds the key to Russian ambitions in southern Ukraine. Moscow must retain control over Kherson to achieve its goal of advancing to Odesa and occupying Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline. If Ukraine retakes the city, Russia will be confined to Left Bank Ukraine. It will face the prospect of further counter-offensives aiming to push Putin’s army out of southern Ukraine altogether.

Ukraine is unlikely to throw everything into an all-out assault on Kherson. Instead, the Ukrainian strategy appears to be focused on gradual localized advances and surgical strikes to isolate Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro River by cutting them off from resupply and targeting logistical hubs.

Since early July, the Ukrainian military has deployed its growing arsenal of long-range artillery and HIMARS precision rocket systems to destroy dozens of Russian command posts and ammunition supply bases throughout southern Ukraine. More recently, Ukrainian forces have targeted the bridges across the Dnipro River that serve as a lifeline for Putin’s troops in Kherson. Russia has since launched an improvised ferry service, indicating that the main bridge in Kherson itself can no longer support military traffic.

There is still much debate over the Ukrainian army’s readiness to mount a major counter-offensive. Some international analysts argue that an extended pause would be preferable to allow for additional training of recruits and the integration of new weapons systems. Many Ukrainians alsosaye that their country’s military needs substantial further arms deliveries, including tanks and aircraft, before it can realistically hope to conduct successful offensive operations. However, there may be no time to spare.

Millions of Ukrainians currently live under Russian occupation, where they face the daily prospect of war crimes, including abductions, executions, and forced deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors uncovered in areas of northern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation, nobody is under any illusions over the scale of the atrocities currently taking place throughout the occupied south. Putin has made clear that he is waging a war of annihilation to destroy Ukraine. Every single extra day of occupation means more misery and suffering.  

Preparations are also underway to hold Crimea-style referendums in occupied southern Ukraine. Russia aims to repeat the rigged vote staged during the spring 2014 military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula to create a veneer of legitimacy for the subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s southern regions. While a fake ballot would do little to convince international audiences or change military realities, it could significantly worsen the plight of residents while enabling Moscow to tighten its administrative grip on the occupied regions.

Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming offensive. Reports are growing of large Russian troop concentrations being redeployed from the current main theater of operations in eastern Ukraine to the southern front. While exact numbers are difficult to confirm, the size of these redeployments indicates that Russia may be planning to launch an offensive of its own on the Kherson front. The longer Ukraine delays, the more militarily challenging an offensive will become. 

Ukraine desperately needs a fresh victory to reinvigorate the war effort. The first month of hostilities won the admiration of the world and convinced Western leaders that Ukraine was worthy of support. However, Ukrainian victory in the Battle of Kyiv was followed by months of slow Russian advances in the east. With Ukraine Fatigue on the rise and international calls for compromise peace, it is vital to demonstrate that Russia can still be defeated on the battlefield.

Talk of a looming Ukrainian victory is certainly optimistic, but a major military breakthrough of this nature is inconceivable. Western officials believe the Russian military has suffered crippling losses in Ukraine and is now a shell of the force that invaded the country on February 24. According to a recent US intelligence estimate, more than 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Putin’s army has already been forced to retreat entirely from northern Ukraine and Snake Island, with Russian commanders somewhat unconvincingly attempting to save their blushes by portraying these embarrassing withdrawals as “goodwill gestures.”  

At the same time, Putin shows no signs of downscaling his war aims. On the contrary, Kremlin officials now openly talk of seizing more Ukrainian territory and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. In June, the Russian dictator compared his invasion of Ukraine to Peter the Great’seighteenth-centuryy imperial conquests and declared that he was on a historic mission to “reclaim” Russian lands. The loss of Kherson would represent a crushing blow to these imperial ambitions while also exposing the diminished reality behind Russia’s continued claims to military superpower status.

The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire.

The geographical focus of the Russo-Ukrainian War looks set to switch from east to south in the coming days as Ukraine’s military steps up efforts to liberate Kherson. The unfolding campaign to regain control over this strategically vital southern Ukrainian city is likely to be the most crucial engagement since the Battle of Kyiv. It could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the war. 

Preparations for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country have been underway since May. After weeks of minor advances in the surrounding countryside that have seen Ukrainian forces liberate more than fifty towns and villages, there is a mounting sense that the Battle of Kherson is about to begin.

A Ukrainian victory would have substantial psychological and practical implications for both sides. It would demonstrate to international audiences that the Ukrainian military can force Russia to retreat from well-established defensive positions and convince Ukraine’s partners to continue providing military and financial support. Meanwhile, defeat in Kherson would be humiliating for Vladimir Putin and spark further demoralization within the ranks of his depleted invasion force.  

Kherson’s fate will shape the future direction of the war. As the sole regional capital captured by Putin’s troops and the only major Ukrainian city on the western side of the Dnipro River currently in Kremlin hands, Kherson holds the key to Russian ambitions in southern Ukraine. Moscow must retain control over Kherson to achieve its goal of advancing to Odesa and occupying Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline. If Ukraine retakes the city, Russia will be confined to Left Bank Ukraine. It will face the prospect of further counter-offensives aiming to push Putin’s army out of southern Ukraine altogether.

Ukraine is unlikely to throw everything into an all-out assault on Kherson. Instead, the Ukrainian strategy appears to be focused on gradual localized advances and surgical strikes to isolate Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro River by cutting them off from resupply and targeting logistical hubs.

Since early July, the Ukrainian military has deployed its growing arsenal of long-range artillery and HIMARS precision rocket systems to destroy dozens of Russian command posts and ammunition supply bases throughout southern Ukraine. More recently, Ukrainian forces have targeted the bridges across the Dnipro River that serve as a lifeline for Putin’s troops in Kherson. Russia has since launched an improvised ferry service, indicating that the main bridge in Kherson itself can no longer support military traffic.

                                                       

Why Ukraine’s Battle for Kherson Could Be a Key Victory

The geographical focus of the Russo-Ukrainian War looks set to switch from east to south in the coming days as Ukraine’s military steps up efforts to liberate Kherson. The unfolding campaign to regain control over this strategically vital southern Ukrainian city is likely to be the most crucial engagement since the Battle of Kyiv. It could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the war. 

Preparations for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south of the country have been underway since May. After weeks of minor advances in the surrounding countryside that have seen Ukrainian forces liberate more than fifty towns and villages, there is a mounting sense that the Battle of Kherson is about to begin.

A Ukrainian victory would have substantial psychological and practical implications for both sides. It would demonstrate to international audiences that the Ukrainian military can force Russia to retreat from well-established defensive positions and convince Ukraine’s partners to continue providing military and financial support. Meanwhile, defeat in Kherson would be humiliating for Vladimir Putin and spark further demoralization within the ranks of his depleted invasion force.  

Kherson’s fate will shape the future direction of the war. As the sole regional capital captured by Putin’s troops and the only major Ukrainian city on the western side of the Dnipro River currently in Kremlin hands, Kherson holds the key to Russian ambitions in southern Ukraine. Moscow must retain control over Kherson to achieve its goal of advancing to Odesa and occupying Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline. If Ukraine retakes the city, Russia will be confined to Left Bank Ukraine. It will face the prospect of further counter-offensives aiming to push Putin’s army out of southern Ukraine altogether.

Ukraine is unlikely to throw everything into an all-out assault on Kherson. Instead, the Ukrainian strategy appears to be focused on gradual localized advances and surgical strikes to isolate Russian forces on the western side of the Dnipro River by cutting them off from resupply and targeting logistical hubs.

Since early July, the Ukrainian military has deployed its growing arsenal of long-range artillery and HIMARS precision rocket systems to destroy dozens of Russian command posts and ammunition supply bases throughout southern Ukraine. More recently, Ukrainian forces have targeted the bridges across the Dnipro River that serve as a lifeline for Putin’s troops in Kherson. Russia has since launched an improvised ferry service, indicating that the main bridge in Kherson itself can no longer support military traffic.

There is still much debate over the Ukrainian army’s readiness to mount a major counter-offensive. Some international analysts argue that an extended pause would be preferable to allow for additional training of recruits and the integration of new weapons systems. Many Ukrainians also say that their country’s military needs substantial further arms deliveries, including tanks and aircraft, before it can realistically hope to conduct successful offensive operations. However, there may be no time to spare.

Millions of Ukrainians currently live under Russian occupation, where they face the daily prospect of war crimes, including abductions, executions, and forced deportation to the Russian Federation. Given the horrors uncovered in areas of northern Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation, nobody is under any illusions over the scale of the atrocities currently taking place throughout the occupied south. Putin has made clear that he is waging a war of annihilation to destroy Ukraine. Every single extra day of occupation means more misery and suffering.  

Preparations are also underway to hold Crimea-style referendums in occupied southern Ukraine. Russia aims to repeat the rigged vote staged during the spring 2014 military takeover of the Ukrainian peninsula to create a veneer of legitimacy for the subsequent annexation of Ukraine’s southern regions. While a fake ballot would do little to convince international audiences or change military realities, it could significantly worsen the plight of residents while enabling Moscow to tighten its administrative grip on the occupied regions.

Meanwhile, the Russian military is actively strengthening its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s coming offensive. Reports are growing of large Russian troop concentrations being redeployed from the current main theater of operations in eastern Ukraine to the southern front. While exact numbers are difficult to confirm, the size of these redeployments indicates that Russia may be planning to launch an offensive of its own on the Kherson front. The longer Ukraine delays, the more militarily challenging an offensive will become. 

 

Putin’s entire Ukraine invasion hinges on the coming Battle of Kherson.

Ukraine desperately needs a fresh victory to reinvigorate the war effort. The country’s heroics during the first month of hostilities won the admiration of the watching world and convinced Western leaders that Ukraine was worthy of serious support. However, Ukrainian victory in the Battle of Kyiv has since been followed by months of slow but steady Russian advances in the east. With Ukraine Fatigue on the rise and mounting international calls for a compromise peace, it is vital to demonstrate that Russia can still be defeated on the battlefield.

Talk of a looming Ukrainian victory is certainly optimistic, but a major military breakthrough of this nature is inconceivable. Western officials believe the Russian military has suffered crippling losses in Ukraine and is now a shell of the force that invaded the country on February 24. According to a recent US intelligence estimate, more than 75,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. Putin’s army has already been forced to retreat entirely from northern Ukraine and Snake Island, with Russian commanders somewhat unconvincingly attempting to save their blushes by portraying these embarrassing withdrawals as “goodwill gestures.”  

At the same time, Putin shows no signs of downscaling his war aims. On the contrary, Kremlin officials now openly talk of seizing more Ukrainian territory and overthrowing the Ukrainian government. In June, the Russian dictator compared his invasion of Ukraine to Peter the Great’s eighteenth-century imperial conquests and declared that he was on a historic mission to “reclaim” Russian lands. The loss of Kherson would represent a crushing blow to these imperial ambitions while also exposing the diminished reality behind Russia’s continued claims to military superpower status.

The looming Battle of Kherson is an event of unprecedented international importance. The outcome of this battle will shape the fate of Ukraine and the course of the war. A Russian victory could pave the way for the conquest of Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline and the complete subjugation of the country. If Ukraine is victorious, it may mark the beginning of the end for Vladimir Putin’s dreams of a new Russian Empire.

 

 

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