By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Korean Troops Mark a New Escalation

Confirmation that North Korea has deployed combat troops to assist Russian President Vladimir Putin in his full-scale invasion of Ukraine marks a dangerous escalation. In a worst-case scenario, it threatens to expand a European war into a global conflict encompassing the Asia-Pacific region. It is also a reminder of the high stakes of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, as candidates wrangle over how the United States responds to such threats. America and its allies, in Asia as well as Europe, must coordinate their response.

U.S. and NATO officials estimate that North Korea has sent some 10,000 troops to Russia’s far east for training. South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian officials put the number as high as 19,000. Some 1,500 North Korean special forces, known as the Storm Corps, are already believed to have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, where Russian soldiers have been struggling to eject the Ukrainian military.

Putin’s reliance on North Korean troops might be considered a tacit acknowledgment that his illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Russia has suffered an estimated 600,000 troops killed or wounded and has had to expand unpopular conscription. For Russia to turn to impoverished North Korea for fresh troops might be cause to think that Ukraine, with American and NATO support, is winning.

Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in June signed a mutual assistance pact. Pyongyang was already supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles and ammunition, particularly artillery shells, but the deployment of troops took their partnership to an unnerving new level.

The North Korean deployment gives Putin additional manpower to prolong this conflict, which will soon mark three bloody years. His short-term goal is merely to keep the war going and make small territorial gains in Ukraine’s east — like the village of Tsukuryne, which Russia claims to have recently seized — while waiting for the U.S. election outcome.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, promises to continue supporting Ukraine and engaging with historical allies. Former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has signaled he wants to end U.S. support for Ukraine and seek an immediate cease-fire deal, which could include forcing Ukraine to accept territorial concessions. The Europeans might still arm Ukraine even without continued U.S. help. But with Ukraine running out of troops, the addition of the North Koreans could at least incrementally help wear down European resolve.

The North Korean reinforcements also helped Mr. Putin with his larger goal of demonstrating that Russia is not isolated on the world stage. It comes just after he hosted a summit of the BRICS group with leaders of Brazil, India, China, and South Africa— the original members, along with Russia — and newcomers such as Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. (Saudi Arabia participated without formally joining the group.) Ostensibly, the BRICS group’s goal is to help countries of the Global South challenge U.S. dominance in global financial institutions. Mr. Putin used the event to thumb his nose at Western leaders who have imposed sanctions on Russia and to showcase that he still has high-level friends.

North Korea gets cash from Russia for its troops and access to coveted military technology it has been denied because of United Nations sanctions — technology that could be used against South Korea in the event of a conflict. The North Korean troops will also get real battlefield training in modern-day warfare, including the use of advanced weaponry and drones. The experience would prove invaluable to the North in a future conflict with South Korea.

Mr. Putin’s effort to internationalize the Ukraine war extends beyond North Korea. He has also turned to Iran and China; the latter has been stepping up purchases of Russian oil, gas, and grain. Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, and Russia has reportedly given targeting data to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen for its attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

A deadly axis of hostile anti-American and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined to challenge U.S. global primacy. Russia, China, and North Korea are nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated geopolitical flashpoints in Europe, the Middle East, and the Pacific could converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances, and firm deterrence will be needed to meet this growing threat. This is the main challenge facing the next president, who will take office on Jan. 20.

 

 

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