By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

New Rivalry Is Emerging

Turkey is widely reported to have backed the offensive led by the Sunni rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to drive Assad from power, thus backstabbing Syria’s traditional allies, Iran and Russia.

Tehran has intimated that without Turkey’s support, HTS would have been unable to achieve its blistering takeover.

Now, with Assad gone, Erdogan is believed to be positioning himself as the de facto leader of the Sunni Muslim world. He also wants Turkey to be one of the dominant powers in the region.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has opened a new front for geopolitical competition in the Middle East.

Now, however, instead of Iran and Russia playing the most influential roles in Syria, Israel and Turkey see an opportunity to advance their conflicting national and regional security interests.

Under their respective leaders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply in recent years. This sets the stage for a bitter showdown over Syria.

Turkey is widely reported to have backed the offensive led by the Sunni rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to drive Assad from power, thus backstabbing Syria’s traditional allies, Iran and Russia.

Tehran has intimated that without Turkey’s support, HTS would have been unable to achieve its blistering takeover.

Now, with Assad gone, Erdogan is believed to be positioning himself as the de facto leader of the Sunni Muslim world. He also wants Turkey to be one of the dominant powers in the region.

Erdogan has said if the Ottoman Empire had been divided in a different way following its defeat in World War II, several Syrian cities, including Aleppo and Damascus, would have likely been part of modern-day Turkey.

Turkey immediately reopened its embassy in Damascus after Assad’s fall and offered help to HTS in shaping the country’s new Islamist order.

As part of this, Erdogan has opposed any concession by HTS to the US-backed Kurdish minority in Syria’s north-east, which he regards as supporters of the Kurdish separatists in Turkey.

Meanwhile, as we have seen, Israel has taken advantage of the power vacuum in Syria to advance its territorial and security ambitions. It has launched a land incursion into the Syrian side of the strategic Golan Heights and has executed a massive bombardment of Syria’s military assets across the country.

Israel’s foreign minister said destroying these assets – which included ammunition depots, fighter jets, missiles, and chemical weapons storage facilities – was necessary to ensure that they didn’t fall into the “hands of extremists” that could pose a threat to the Jewish state.

Turkey sees Israel’s recent actions in Syria and the occupied Golan Heights as a land grab. Israel’s actions have also been denounced by Arab countries, which demand Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity be respected.

Israel is concerned about the rise to power of an Islamist group and the transformation of Syria into a jihadist state.

This is even though HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) has signaled that he does not want conflict with Israel. He has also pledged not to allow any groups to use Syria for attacks on Israel.

At the same time, Sharaa has called for the withdrawal of Israel from Syrian territory according to a 1974 agreement that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed IDF to prepare to remain in Syrian Golan Heights until Syria's political-security situation stabilizes.

 

 

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