By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

NATO forces have directly engaged with Russia since it invaded Ukraine

Polish and NATO forces scrambled to intercept Russian drones that entered Poland’s airspace early on Tuesday night and early on Wednesday, marking their first direct military engagement with Moscow since the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022.

Russia sending drones over Poland marked an escalation of hostilities with Europe. But what, if anything, did Vladimir Putin hope to gain — and how will NATO respond?

Fragments of drones were found across eastern Poland, with one smashing into a house. No one was injured.

Warsaw is pretty clear about who's to blame. "There is no doubt about Russia's aggressive intentions," Tusk said. Warsaw invoked NATO's Article 4 to call a meeting with its allies and discuss the situation.

"The whole machine will now chew through the assessment," a NATO official said.

 

Could it be an accident?

Poland and other frontline NATO countries like Romania have been hit with the occasional Russian drone in the more than three years since the Kremlin launched its full-scale attack on Ukraine. But this is the first time that so many drones were spotted over an allied country — and the first time that Russian drones were shot down.

The earlier incidents could be explained away as one-offs, but that's harder with such a large number of drones.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said: “Polish and NATO air forces assess that they did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted.”

That view was supported by other countries.

"There is definitely no reason to suspect that this was a course correction error or anything of the sort," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

Fabian Hoffmann, a missile and nuclear strategy expert at the University of Oslo, said the incident bore all the hallmarks of deliberate action. “Looking at the flight paths, these drones followed a controlled trajectory, so it seems like Russia did it with deliberation,” he said.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said: “Polish and NATO air forces assess that they did not veer off course, but were deliberately targeted.”

U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey said: "There are conflicting reports, and there is no firm assessment yet about what lay behind the drone attacks, or the intent. Whatever the intent, they were dangerous, whatever the intent, they were reckless, and whatever the intent, they breached sovereign Polish and NATO airspace."

However, there seems to be some caution in the aftermath of the incident.

 

What does the Kremlin say?

Moscow's first response was to blame Ukraine. The Kremlin reacted in the early afternoon by saying … almost nothing.

“We would prefer not to comment on this in any way. It’s outside our area of competence,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, according to the TASS state news agency.

But, he added, EU leaders and NATO accuse Russia of various provocations “daily. Most often without even trying to present any arguments.”

The defense ministry finally responded, publishing an online statement saying Russia had conducted a successful large-scale drone strike on “enterprises of Ukraine's military-industrial complex" in western Ukraine.

No targets had been “planned” on Polish territory, it added. The ministry also said that the drones, which had reportedly crossed into Poland, had a maximum flight range of no more than 700 kilometers, hinting that drones fired from Russia could not have reached Poland. 

“Nevertheless, we’re ready to hold consultations with Poland on this matter with Poland’s Defense Ministry,” it concluded.

Soldiers patrol the street after a drone struck a residential building in Wyryki municipality, Poland, September 10, 2025

 

How has the EU responded to this incident?

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, vice president of the European Commission, said the incident marked an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“We must raise the cost on Moscow, strengthen support for Ukraine, and invest in Europe’s defence,” she said in a statement posted on X. “The EU plays a major role and we will support initiatives like the eastern border shield defence line.”

Kallas said the EU stood in “full solidarity with Poland” and called the Russian drone intrusion “the most serious European airspace violation by Russia since the war began, and indications suggest it was intentional, not accidental”.

EU’s defence commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, also emphasised the need for a “drone wall” along its shared borders. “Once again Russia tests frontier states, EU & NATO,” Kubilius wrote in a post on X. “We shall work together with member states, frontier countries and Ukraine. Russia will be stopped.”

 

How has Ukraine responded?

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, warned that Moscow was continuing to “push the boundaries of what is possible” by aiming drones at Poland.

“If [Russia] does not encounter a strong reaction, it remains at the new level of escalation,” Zelenskyy said, adding that 15 regions of Ukraine had been targeted overnight in a “massive” attack by 415 drones of various types and more than 40 cruise and ballistic missiles.

“The Russians must feel the consequences. Russia must feel that the war cannot be expanded and will have to be ended,” said the Ukrainian president.

 

What else is Russia doing right now?

The violation of Polish airspace by the Russian drones comes as Moscow ramps up its attacks on Kyiv, stalls ceasefire talks, and plans military exercises in neighboring Belarus.

Poland said it would close its border with Belarus on Thursday, at midnight (22:00 GMT), in advance of an upcoming military drill.

Russia and Belarus’s large-scale military exercises, called the “Zapad” drills – meaning “west” in Russian – typically involve thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and live-fire operations across western regions. The drill is a particular security concern for neighboring NATO member states, Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.

Tusk: Poland is closest to open conflict since World War II, warns PM

 

Is this part of a Russian plan?

Notwithstanding Donald Trump's ineffectual threats against Russian leader Vladimir Putin and his failed efforts to bring a quick end to the fighting, Russia has been amping up its aggression against Ukraine in recent weeks.

It is launching ever larger strikes against Ukrainian cities. On Sunday, it fired over 800 drones and missiles, one of which hit Ukraine's main government building — something that hasn't happened so far in the war.

Russia also struck an American factory in western Ukraine. In late August, the EU's diplomatic mission and the nearby British Council were hit in central Kyiv..

Retired General Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, did not doubt that the drone incursion was deliberate, and said that it underlined Putin's penchant for risk, noting that about 8,000 U.S. troops are stationed in Poland.

Hoffmann said that Moscow’s willingness to take such risks reflects both weakness and opportunism. “Russia has no respect for Europe. And the reality is that Russia is not doing particularly well, especially economically. That’s precisely why the Kremlin chooses to escalate now; they see a window of opportunity.”

The incident raises a lot of questions about Russia, Poland, and NATO — everything from whether the Kremlin meant to send the drones into Poland, to whether Warsaw and the Atlantic alliance have adapted sufficiently to the realities of modern drone warfare.

 

What does it say about Poland and NATO's air defense readiness?

Poland and its allies did see the drones (although Kremlin ally Belarus claimed some credit for notifying Warsaw of their approach) and did shoot some of them down, but this isn't a stunning success for Poland and NATO.

"This isn't the kind of thing that you should be using F-16s and F-35s for," Hodges said.

After more than three years of war, it also shows that NATO hasn't done nearly enough to prepare for the Russian attack that analysts keep warning is a real threat.

"Last night’s 'training wheel' attack by the Russians on Poland (and that is what it was) shows how the states of the alliance have not bothered to prepare properly for not only future war, but the war that is staring them right now in the face," he said.

Ukraine, which is used to almost daily attacks by Russia, responds more swiftly and more cheaply.

Ukraine said it had intercepted 386 out of 415 Russian drones and 27 out of 43 missiles launched overnight Tuesday.

 

How can NATO respond?

The alliance is aware that its air defenses need improving, and Wednesday's incidents bolster that feeling.

Oana Lungescu, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank and a former NATO spokesperson, said that NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte "has said that NATO needs a five-fold increase in air and missile defense capabilities, so that’s an urgent priority. It’s also important that all NATO countries clarify their national legislation about downing aircraft entering their airspace."

Hodges called for NATO to hold a large, multinational air defense exercise to properly coordinate air defenses across all of its frontline states. He also recommended that the rules of engagement be changed for air patrols over the Baltic and Black seas to allow NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.

Finally, he said it makes sense for NATO to impose a no-fly zone over western Ukraine to prevent Russian drones and missiles from getting close to allied airspace. "No Russian planes are flying over Ukraine, so this would not be an escalation," he said.

In the wake of the incident, Warsaw requested consultations with NATO allies under Article 4, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.

The incident raises a lot of questions about Russia, Poland, and NATO,  everything from whether the Kremlin meant to send the drones into Poland to whether Warsaw and the Atlantic alliance have adapted sufficiently to the realities of modern drone warfare.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk told the Polish parliament that Polish airspace had been breached 19 times. Polish F-16 fighter jets and Dutch F-35s, plus other aircraft, responded and shot down at least four drones.

General Wiesław Kukuła said the warning from Belarus was “helpful” but somewhat “surprising.”

Belarus’s defense minister said this year’s Zapad would include drills for the possible use of nuclear weapons and the Russian-made, intermediate-range hypersonic Oreshnik missile.

Past Zapad drills have prompted concerns in the West, most notably in 2021, when Russian troops deployed in Belarus for exercises stayed for longer than expected and then spearheaded one part of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

India, which has been hit by United States President Donald Trump with additional trade tariffs for buying Russian oil, is also expected to join the seven-day military drill. Trump is now also pushing the EU to levy a 100 percent trade tariff on India – and has reportedly offered to match this if it agrees.

Belarus, one of Russia’s key allies, warned Warsaw that a wave of drones was entering Polish airspace during Wednesday’s drone incursion, Poland’s top general has confirmed.

General Wiesław Kukuła, Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, said the warning was “helpful for us” but somewhat “surprising,” given Belarus’ support for Russia in the war in Ukraine, and tensions along the border with Poland.

 

 

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