By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Why Trump Hasn't Turned on Syria's New Leader Amid Execution of US Citizen

President Donald Trump's endorsement of Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa is being tested amid sectarian violence that has led to the execution-style murder of at least one U.S. citizen in the restive country's south.

But analysts and former officials say the situation is complicated by the murky nature of the carnage, with several groups both under and outside of the government's control involved in clashes, as well as the opposing roles of two U.S. allies, Israel and Turkey, and a lack of credible alternatives in Damascus.

For the past week, the Trump administration has pushed for a ceasefire, both between militias aligned with the Druze minority in southwestern Al-Sweida and Sunni Muslim Bedouin tribes, as well as between Syria and Israel, which has conducted strikes on security forces accused of backing the Bedouins.

But even as calm appeared to be restored on Monday, the situation took a grisly new turn in recent days when video surfaced appearing to show eight men being held at gunpoint and later shot to death at close range by armed individuals wearing military fatigues in Al-Sweida. One of the victims was said to be a dual Syrian-U.S. national.

The State Department confirmed Monday that a U.S. citizen had been killed in Syria.

A picture shows a promotional poster bearing the portrait of Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa next to a defaced portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump, bearing the words "God is Greater" in Arabic, in the capital Damascus on July 9, 2025.

Media outlets later identified the slain American as 35-year-old Hosam Saraya, a dual Syrian-U.S. citizen living in Oklahoma City who was believed to be visiting family at the time of his murder.

As outrage builds among critics of Sharaa's government, Middle East experts who spoke to Newsweek cautioned that the scene on the ground is chaotic, and it is not yet clear who was behind Saraya's killing.

Aaron Y. Zelin, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and founder of the Jihadology research network, said the deteriorating situation in Syria presents a "complicated issue" that limits U.S. options seven months after the downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

"The question is: 'What's the alternative?' And I think that's been one of the biggest questions most people have had since the fall of the Assad regime, because in many ways, the alternative to there being this government it will most likely look like what we saw last week, where it's just chaos throughout the country.

 

Trump's Shift on Sharaa

Assad's ouster at the hands of an Islamist-led alliance headed by Sharaa's former Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militant group in December marked a stunning reversal of the country's 14-year civil war, during which Assad was backed by both Iran and Russia. The move prompted initial hopes from Assad's opponents that Sharaa, who promptly appointed himself interim president, might stabilize the war-torn nation.

The incoming Trump administration initially appeared skeptical. Trump urged that the U.S. stay out of the "mess" in Syria. At the same time, his soon-to-be Vice President JD Vance likened the victorious insurgents to jihadis such as the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), which had targeted Christians and other minorities in Syria.

The remarks echoed past comments expressed by Trump that indicated his skepticism of rebel groups in Syria. While Trump twice ordered direct strikes on Syrian government sites in response to alleged chemical weapon attacks during his first administration, he remained largely opposed to regime change and sought to reduce the U.S. military presence in Syria.

The new White House was not alone in its doubts toward Sharaa, who previously went by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, but the interim president was quickly courted by a number of regional leaders.

His commitments to eschewing past extremist ideology and overseeing a more inclusive future for Syria were soon undermined, however, by violent clashes that appeared to target religious and ethnic minority communities in majority-Sunni Arab Syria, including Alawites, Druze and Kurds.

Syrian soldiers raise the Syrian national flag in front of the Syrian Defense Ministry building, which was heavily damaged by Israeli airstrikes, in Damascus, Syria, Saturday, July 19, 2025. 

The violence drew repeated warnings from the State Department, but the Trump administration simultaneously sought to empower rather than weaken Sharaa's nascent government in an apparent bid to rein in the activity of the various militias that made up his victorious coalition.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government railed against Sharaa, conducting strikes on Damascus and ordering a land incursion to seize further territory beyond the already Israel-occupied Golan Heights in southern Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan issued threats to Israel as he sought to build regional support for Damascus' new ruler.

The turning point for the White House appeared to come in May when Trump met with Sharaa during a visit to Saudi Arabia and ultimately agreed to lift Assad-era sanctions on Syria, a decision for which Erdogan had advocated. The U.S. went on to remove the foreign terrorist organization designation of Sharaa's HTS just days before the latest violence in Al-Sweida erupted.

 

Navigating Alliances

As the Trump administration pushed for a cessation of hostilities, the U.S. issued a rare rebuke of its closest Middle East ally, Israel, over its strikes against Syrian security forces and the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus, while calling on all sides to de-escalate.

"On the one hand, Israel wants stability on its border," Zelin said, "but with the Syrian government not being allowed to go in and create order, then it makes the situation worse in some ways, because then local actors that are only in it for revenge don't necessarily care about statecraft.

"And so, a lot of people working on Syria in the U.S. government felt that Israel, in many ways, poured gasoline on a situation that no doubt was problematic and they're trying to resolve with local authorities, but made the situation last longer and led to more death than necessarily would have happened otherwise."

Adham Sahloul, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and former special adviser under President Joe Biden's administration, argued it was "no surprise White House officials are leaking to the press their concern that Prime Minister Netanyahu is out-muscling their boss—burning the tightrope that U.S.-Syria policy is walking—just as he out-muscled President Biden."

Sahloul said that Erdogan, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, "certainly convinced" Trump of the benefits of building ties with  Sharaa.

At the same time, Sahloul said Trump was also in a unique position to leverage his relationship with Netanyahu, whose "provocative and illegal military strikes in southern Syria and weaponizing certain elements of Syria's minority communities," Sahloul said, threatened to upend the administration's gains.

"President Trump has leverage to use with Israel, both in his relationship with Netanyahu and other regional leaders, but also the will to distance himself from Israel's policies in ways that Biden was unable or unwilling, Trump has leverage with the new Syrian interim authorities, as well, especially given that they are seeking legitimacy and U.S. support in this sensitive transition period."

Sawsan Natour-Hasoun, minister of public diplomacy at the Israeli Embassy to the United States, recently defended the Israeli intervention and stated that Israel was determined to deter the regime from harming the Druze by ensuring the full demilitarization of the border with Syria, acting to defend our common values, and for the protection of minority groups.

"Everyone should know that the Druze of Syria stand as the last symbol of pluralism and minority diversity in the Arab-majority region," she wrote. "If Suwayda collapses, Israel and Jordan face an immediate Jihadi threat on their border."

Syrian Druze fighters pose for a photograph after Syrian government forces temporarily pulled out of the southern Al-Sweida governorate, on July 17, 2025.

 

'No Plan B'

Echoing Zelin, James Jeffrey, who previously served as U.S. special representative for Syria and special envoy for the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS during Trump's first administration, also argued that the White House saw few other options than to help Sharaa restore order rather than further destabilize his rule.

"The administration knows there is no alternative to a unified, strong Syria—or rather that the alternative is the horrors of Assad, the civil war, and return of Iran," Jeffrey said.

"Al-Sharaa has so far been successful in de-escalating these crises—in eight months only two plus a minor one months ago with the Druze, and he does carry out investigations," he added. "None of this is perfect, but it is in stark contrast to the sad norm."

He cited the words of Trump's current envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, who told the Associated Press on Monday that there is "no Plan B" when it comes to Syria's current leadership.

Before his defeat and departure to Russia, the strongman Assad ruled Syria for nearly 25 years, more than half of which were mired in civil war between government factions, rebels, and jihadis, with the U.S. later intervening in support of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight ISIS. Assad succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled the country from 1971 until he died in 2000.

U.S. ties with both Assads fluctuated over the decades, though Washington ultimately severed ties with Damascus in the early stages of the civil war, with then-President Barack Obama backing rebel groups until shifting aid to the SDF in 2015.

Al-Sharaa has so far been successful in de-escalating these crises; in eight months, only two, plus a minor one months ago with the Druze, and he does carry out investigations. None of this is perfect, but it is in stark contrast to the sad norm.

He cited the words of Trump's current envoy to Syria, Thomas Barrack, who told the Associated Press that there is "no Plan B" when it comes to Syria's current leadership.

Before his defeat and departure to Russia, the strongman Assad ruled Syria for nearly 25 years, more than half of which were mired in civil war between government factions, rebels, and jihadis, with the U.S. later intervening in support of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight ISIS. Assad succeeded his father, Hafez al-Assad, who ruled the country from 1971 until he died in 2000.

U.S. ties with both Assads fluctuated over the decades, though Washington ultimately severed ties with Damascus in the early stages of the civil war, with then-President Barack Obama backing rebel groups until shifting aid to the SDF in 2015.

While publicly averse to becoming too deeply involved in Syria's complex, multisided, and ongoing conflict and often critical of his predecessors' policies, Trump has remained active on the issue since coming to office in January.

"On Syria, the first consideration is that the administration sees it as critically important, even central to stabilizing the region," Jeffrey said. "It understands the problems."

These problem include, as he explained, a "devastated state and society, armed ethnic/religious minority enclaves not enthused about a unitary Syrian state, external players—Israel and [Turkey] decisively, Russia and Iran for the moment less decisively—intervening, and last but most important central government security forces that are weak and to some degree tend to add fuel to, rather than calm, local conflicts as seen in Suwayda and earlier in Latakia."

Sahloul, too, argued that Syria served a distinct position in the region, thus making it a top priority for advancing policy goals on a number of fronts despite being a source of unrest for so many years.

"Sitting at the heart of the region and having a historically significant political and cultural largesse in the Arab world, Syria impacts the security of three neighboring U.S. allies, including one NATO ally, and that of two neighboring countries, Iraq and Lebanon, where the U.S. has a vested interest in preventing new cycles of instability," Sahloul said.

"It impacts the global counterterrorism conversation, given the ISIS threat," he added. "It impacts global migration, as we saw in the Syrian refugee crisis on Europe's doorstep in the 2010s."

Now, with the uprooting of Assad and the Iran-led Axis of Resistance coalition to which the longtime Syrian leader was aligned, Sahloul argued that the U.S. has a chance at achieving its decades-long goal of "a unified, cohesive Syria that is able to rebuild and be an anchor of stability in the Levant."

He warned, however, that it would also take steps by Israel, as well as by the Syrian transitional government to turn that vision into a reality, noting "the Syrian interim authorities' command and control challenges of the many armed factions—including some with a history of human rights abuses—under the umbrella of the new Syrian state."

Sahloul also pointed out "the challenge al-Sharaa faces in reeling in extremists among those ranks who may have partaken in sectarian massacres on the Syrian coast a few months ago, against the Druze community in southern Syria these past few weeks, or across a decade and a half of the Syrian civil war," calling these issues "an enormous threat to the credibility of Syrian interim authorities and threaten the goodwill and political prospects of a post-Assad Syria."

"When the dust settles in southern Syria, accountability at the highest levels, in transparent efforts, need to be witnessed by the international community and of course by Syrians—both for the violence in the south and on the coast," Sahloul said. "All of this begs for a cohesive American policy in Syria."

President Donald Trump shakes hands with Syrian Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

 

No Guarantees

The degree to which Saraya's death may truly disrupt the Washington-Damascus rapprochement remains to be seen.

But Jeffrey argued that it was likely to have some effect, if not a limited one, as was the case when a U.S. citizen was reportedly beaten to death by Israeli settlers in the West Bank earlier this month, prompting demands for a probe by the Trump administration, which earlier lifted its predecessor's sanctions on Israeli settlers accused of inciting deadly violence.

"Killing any American citizen, as we are seeing in Israel, at least in the short term, changes the tone and substance of relations," Jeffrey said.

Syrian government security forces set up a checkpoint in the town of Busra al-Hariri, east of the city of Al-Sweida, on July 20, 2025, to prevent armed tribal fighters from advancing towards the city.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce declined to give further details during a press briefing on Tuesday on either of the recent cases of U.S. citizens being killed in the Middle East and declined to confirm whether or not Saraya was killed by forces affiliated with the Syrian transitional government.

"That is not something that I would confirm or would know or would say, just because a reporter says it here in the room," Bruce said. "We can say, of course, that Secretary [of State Marco] Rubio has emphasized the importance of prioritizing the safety and security of U.S. citizens."

"We can confirm the death of—and this is the Al-Sweida region, what we're discussing, [in] Syria last week—of U.S. citizen Hosam Saraya," she added. "We offer condolences to the family on their loss. We are providing consular assistance to them. But amid further conversations, I can't give you any more details except what we already discussed."

Yet Damascus is far from entirely insulated from backlash as Syria navigates a period of historic uncertainty.

Though Trump continues to evaluate Sharaa as a potential partner for security in the region, the Syrian leader he once touted as a "young, attractive guy" with a "very strong past" and "a real shot at holding it together" runs the risk of alienating the White House should other factors outweigh the U.S. president's calculus.

Yet it would be a mistake, in my opinion, for anyone to believe that President Trump's stance on Syria, or anything else, won't change.

Although it's hard to predict what would trigger a shift in his calculus...it could be photos or videos of sectarian violence, or it could be Israeli pressure, or a mix of both, but the bottom line is I don't think Damascus should take Trump's position for granted, and for what it's worth, we don't think they do.

 

 

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