By Eric Vandenbroeck
and co-workers
One-State Reality
The history of what is now Palestine and Israel is a complicated one that started when the Hashemite Sherif Hussein
and notably also his son Faisal I bin Hussein teamed up with the British, the
result of which was that for a brief period in 1920, Faisal I bin Hussein became
the King of Syria which supposed to have included
what is now Palestine and Israel.
Moving forward today,
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power in Israel with a
narrow, extreme right-wing coalition has shattered even the illusion of a
two-state solution. Members of his new government have not been shy about
stating their views on what Israel is and what it could be in all the
territories it controls: a Greater Israel defined not just as a Jewish state
but one in which the law enshrines Jewish supremacy over all Palestinians who
remain there. As a result, it is no longer possible to avoid confronting a
one-state reality.
Israel’s radical new
government did not create this reality but rather made it impossible to deny.
The temporary status of “occupation” of the Palestinian
territories is now a permanent condition in which one state ruled by one
group of people rules over another group of people. The promise of
a two-state solution made sense as an alternative future in the years
around the 1993 Oslo accords, when there were constituencies for compromise on
both the Israeli and the Palestinian sides and when tangible if fleeting
progress was made toward building the institutions of a hypothetical
Palestinian state. But that period ended long ago. Today, it makes little sense
to let fantastical visions for the future obscure deeply embedded existing
arrangements.
It is past time to
grapple with what a one-state reality means for policy, politics, and analysis.
Palestine is not a state in waiting, and Israel is not a democratic state
incidentally occupying Palestinian territory. All the territory west of
the Jordan River has long constituted a single state under Israeli rule, where
the land and the people are subject to radically different legal regimes, and
Palestinians are permanently treated as a lower caste. Policymakers andanalysts who ignore this one-state reality will be
condemned to failure and irrelevance, doing little beyond providing a
smokescreen for the entrenchment of the status quo.
Some implications of
this one-state reality are clear. The world will not stop caring about
Palestinian rights, no matter how fervently many supporters of Israel (and Arab
rulers) wish they would. Violence, dispossession, and human rights abuses
have escalated over the last year, and the risk of large-scale violent
confrontation grows with every day that Palestinians are locked in this
ever-expanding system of legalized oppression and Israeli encroachment. But
far less clear is how important actors will adjust—if they adjust at all—as the
reality of a single state shifts from open secret to undeniable truth.
U.S.
President Joe Biden seems fully committed to the status quo, and
there is no evidence that his administration has thought about the issue or
done much beyond crisis management and mouthing displeasure. A strong sense of
wishful thinking permeates Washington, with many U.S. officials still trying to
convince themselves that there is a chance of returning to a two-state
negotiation after the aberrant Netanyahu government leaves office.
But ignoring the new reality will not be an option for much longer. A storm is
gathering in Israel and Palestine that demands an urgent response from the
country that has most enabled the emergence of a single state upholding Jewish
supremacy. If the United States wants to avoid profound instability in the
Middle East and a challenge to its broader global agenda, it must cease
exempting Israel from the standards and structures of the liberal international
order that Washington hopes to lead.
From Unsayable To Undeniable
A one-state arrangement is not a future possibility; it
already exists, no matter what anyone thinks. Between the Mediterranean Sea and
the Jordan River, one state controls the entry and exit of people and goods,
oversees security, and has the capacity to impose its decisions, laws, and
policies on millions of people without their consent.
A one-state reality
could, in principle, be based on democratic rule and equal citizenship. But
such an arrangement is not on offer at the moment. Forced to choose between
Israel’s Jewish identity and liberal democracy, Israel has chosen the former.
It has locked in a system of Jewish supremacy, wherein non-Jews are
structurally discriminated against or excluded in a tiered scheme: some
non-Jews have most of, but not all, the rights that Jews have, while most
non-Jews live under severe segregation, separation, and domination.
A peace process in
the closing years of the twentieth century offered the tantalizing possibility
of something different. But since the 2000 Camp David summit, where U.S.-led
negotiations failed to achieve a two-state agreement, the phrase “peace
process” has served mostly to distract from the realities on the ground and to
offer an excuse for not acknowledging them. The second Intifada, which
erupted soon after the disappointment at Camp David, and Israel’s subsequent
intrusions into the West Bank transformed the Palestinian Authority into little
more than a security subcontractor for Israel. They also accelerated the
rightward drift of Israeli politics, the population shifts brought about by
Israeli citizens moving into the West Bank, and the geographical fragmentation
of Palestinian society. The cumulative effect of these changes became evident
during the 2021 crisis over the appropriation of Palestinian homes in East
Jerusalem, which pitted not just Israeli settlers and Palestinians but also
Jewish and Palestinian citizens of Israel against each other in a conflict that
split cities and neighborhoods.
Netanyahu’s new
government, composed of a coalition of right-wing religious and nationalist
extremists, epitomizes these trends. Its members boast of their mission to
create a new Israel in their image: less liberal, more religious, and more
willing to own discrimination against non-Jews. Netanyahu has written that
“Israel is not a state of all its citizens” but rather “of the Jewish
people—and only it." The man he appointed as minister of national
security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has declared that Gaza
should be “ours” and that “the Palestinians can go to . . . Saudi Arabia
or other places, like Iraq or Iran.” This extremist vision has long been shared
by at least a minority of Israelis and has strong grounding in Zionist thought
and practice. It began gaining adherents soon after Israel occupied the
Palestinian territories in the 1967 war. And although it is not yet a hegemonic
view, it can plausibly claim a majority of Israeli society and can no longer be
termed a fringe position.
The fact of a
one-state reality has long been obvious to those who live in Israel and the
territories it controls and to anyone who has paid attention to the inexorable
shifts on the ground. But in the past few years, something has changed. Until
recently, the one-state reality was rarely acknowledged by important actors,
and those who spoke the truth out loud were ignored or punished for doing so.
With remarkable speed, however, the unsayable has become close to conventional
wisdom.
Democracy For Some
To see the reality of
a single state, many observers will need to put on new glasses. These are
people who are used to seeing a distinction between the occupied territories
and Israel proper—that is, the state as it existed before 1967, when Israel
captured the West Bank and Gaza—and think Israel’s sovereignty is limited to
the territory it controlled before 1967. But the state and sovereignty are not
the same. The state is defined by what it controls, whereas sovereignty depends
on other states’ recognizing the legality of that control.
These new glasses
would disaggregate the concepts of state, sovereignty, nation, and citizenship,
making it easier to see a one-state reality that is ineluctably based on
relations of superiority and inferiority between Jews and non-Jews across all
the territories under Israel’s differentiated but unchallenged control.
Consider Israel through the lens of a state. It has control over a territory
that stretches from the river to the sea, has a near monopoly on the use of
force, and uses this power to sustain a draconian blockade of Gaza and control
the West Bank with a system of checkpoints, policing, and
relentlessly expanding settlements. Even after it withdrew forces from Gaza in
2005, the Israeli government retained control over the territory’s entry
and exit points. Like parts of the West Bank, Gaza enjoys a degree of
autonomy, and since the brief Palestinian civil war of 2007, the territory
has been administered internally by the Islamist organization Hamas, which brooks little dissent. But Hamas does not
control the territory’s coastline, airspace, or boundaries. In other words, by
any reasonable definition, the Israeli state encompasses all lands from its
border with Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea.
It has been possible
to overlook that reality because Israel has not made formal claims of
sovereignty over all these areas. It has annexed some of the occupied
territories, including East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. But it has
not yet declared sovereignty over the rest of the land that it controls, and
only a handful of states would be likely to recognize such claims if
Israel were to make them.
Controlling territory
and consolidating institutional domination without formalizing sovereignty
enables Israel to maintain a one-state reality on its terms. It can deny responsibility
for (and rights to) most Palestinians because they are residents of its
territory but not citizens of the state, cynically justifying this
discrimination on the grounds that it keeps alive the possibility of a
two-state solution. By not formalizing sovereignty, Israel can be democratic
for its citizens but unaccountable to millions of its residents. This
arrangement has allowed many of Israel’s supporters abroad to continue to
pretend that all this is temporary—that Israel remains a liberal democracy and
that, someday, Palestinians will exercise their right to self-determination.
But even within its
pre-1967 borders, Israel’s democracy has limits, which become apparent when
viewed through the lens of citizenship. Israel’s Jewish identity and its one-state
reality have produced an intricate series of legal categories that distribute
differentiated rights, responsibilities, and protections. Its 2018
“nation-state” law defines Israel as “the nation-state of the Jewish People”
and holds that “the exercise of the right to national self-determination in the
State of Israel is unique to the Jewish People”; it makes no mention of
democracy or equality for non-Jewish citizens.
According to this
hierarchy of membership, the fullest class of citizenship is reserved for
Israeli Jews (at least those whose Jewishness meets rabbinical standards);
they are citizens without conditions. Palestinians who have Israeli
citizenship and reside in pre-1967 Israel have political and civil rights but
confront other limits—both legal and extrajudicial—on their rights,
responsibilities, and protections. Palestinian residents of Jerusalem
theoretically have the option of becoming Israeli citizens, but most reject it
because doing so would be an act of disloyalty. Palestinians who reside in the
territories are the lowest class of all. Their rights and
responsibilities depend on where they live, with those in Gaza at the bottom of
the hierarchy—a position that has only deteriorated since Hamas took control.
Asking a Palestinian to describe his or her legal status can elicit an answer
that lasts for several minutes—and is still full of ambiguities.
Heading toward an Israeli checkpoint in the
Palestinian territories.
As long as hope
existed for a two-state solution that would see Palestinians’ rights
recognized, it was possible to view the situation within Israel’s 1967
boundaries as one of de jure equality combined with de facto discrimination
against some citizens—an unfortunate but common reality in much of the world.
But when one acknowledges the one-state reality, something more pernicious is
revealed. In that one state, there are some whose movement, travel, civil
status, economic activities, property rights, and access to public services are
severely restricted. A substantial share of lifelong residents with deep and
continuous roots in the territory of that state are rendered stateless. And all
these categories and gradations of marginalization are enforced by legal,
political, and security measures imposed by state actors who are accountable to
only a portion of the population.
Naming this reality
is politically contentious, even as a consensus has formed about the abiding
and severe inequalities that define it. A flurry of reports by Israeli and
international nongovernmental organizations documenting these inequalities have
driven the term “apartheid” from the margins of the Israeli-Palestinian debate
to its center. Apartheid refers to the system of racial segregation that South
Africa’s white minority government used to enshrine white supremacy from 1948
to the early 1990s. It has since been defined under international law and by
the International Criminal Court as a legalized scheme of racial segregation
and discrimination and deemed a crime against humanity. Major human rights
organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, have
applied the term to Israel. So have many academics: according to a March 2022
poll of Middle East–focused scholars who are members of three large academic
associations, 60 percent of respondents described the situation in Israel and
the Palestinian territories as a “one-state reality with inequality akin to
apartheid.”
The term may not be a
perfect fit. Israel’s system of structural discrimination is more severe than
those of even the most illiberal states. But it is based not on race, as
apartheid was defined in South Africa and is defined under international law,
but on ethnicity, nationality, and religion. Perhaps this distinction matters
to those who wish to take legal action against Israel. It is less important
politically, however, and is virtually meaningless when it comes to analysis.
What matters politically is that a once taboo term has increasingly become a
mainstream, common-sense understanding of reality. Analytically, what matters
is that the apartheid label accurately describes the facts on the ground and
offers the beginnings of a road map to change them. Apartheid is not
a magic word that alters reality when invoked. But its entry into the political
mainstream reveals a broad recognition that Israeli rule is designed to
maintain Jewish supremacy throughout all the territory the state controls.
Israel’s system may not technically be apartheid, but it rhymes.
Rude Awakening
It is primarily
Israelis and Palestinians who must grapple with the one-state reality. But that
reality will also complicate Israel’s relationship with the rest of the world.
For half a century, the peace process allowed Western democracies to overlook
Israel’s occupation in favor of an aspirational future in which the occupation
would come to a mutually negotiated end. Israeli democracy (however flawed) and
the nominal distinction between Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories
also helped outsiders avert their gaze. All these diversions are gone. The
one-state reality has long been embedded in Israeli law, politics, and
society, even if it is only now being broadly acknowledged. No ready
alternatives exist, and it has been decades since there was any meaningful
political process to create one.
Perhaps the
recognition of these facts will not change much. Many enduring global
problems are never resolved. We live in a populist world, where
democracy and human rights are under threat. Israeli leaders point to the
Abraham Accords, which established Israel’s relations with Bahrain,
Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), to argue that
normalization with Arab states never required resolving the Palestinian issue.
For their part, Western leaders may simply continue to pretend that Israel
shares their liberal democratic values while many pro-Israel groups in the
United States double down on their support. Liberal Jewish Americans may
struggle to defend an Israel that has many characteristics of apartheid, but
their protests will have little practical effect.
Yet there are reasons
to believe that the transition from an aspirational two-state world to a real
one-state world could be rocky. The mainstreaming of the apartheid analogy and
the rise of the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement—and the intense
backlash against both—suggest that the political terrain has shifted. Israel
may enjoy more physical security and regional diplomatic recognition than ever
before, with few international or local constraints on its activities in the
West Bank. But control requires more than brute strength. It also requires some
semblance of legitimacy, with the status quo sustained by its taken-for-granted
nature, its naturalization as common sense, and the impossibility of even
contemplating justifiable resistance. Israel still has the material power
to win the battles it picks. But as those battles proliferate, each victory
further erodes its fighting position. Those wanting to defend the one-state
reality are defending colonialist principles in a postcolonial world.
Demonstrations against Netanyahu, Tel Aviv, March 2023
The struggle to
define and shape the terms of this one-state reality may take new forms. In the
past, dramatic interstate wars created openings for negotiations and
high-stakes diplomacy. But in the future, U.S. policymakers are not likely to
confront conventional conflicts such as those that broke out between Israel and
Arab states in 1967 and 1973. Instead, they will face something closer to the
first and second Intifada—sudden outbursts of violence and mass popular
contestation such as those that occurred in May 2021. At that time, clashes in
Jerusalem sparked a wider conflagration involving rocket fire between Israel
and Hamas, demonstrations and violence in the West Bank, and ugly incidents
where Israelis of Jewish and Palestinian ancestry (and the Israeli police)
behaved as if ethnicity trumped citizenship. Daily acts of violence and
sporadic bouts of popular upheaval—perhaps even a full third Intifada—seem
inevitable.
Policymakers in the
United States and elsewhere who have long talked about the need to preserve a
two-state solution are increasingly being forced to react to crises for which
they are unprepared. The problems engendered by the one-state reality have
already sparked new solidarity movements, boycotts, and societal conflicts.
Nongovernmental organizations, political movements supporting various Israeli
and Palestinian causes, and transnational advocacy groups are seeking to alter
global norms and sway individuals, societies, and governments with new and old
media campaigns. Increasingly, they aim to label or boycott goods produced in
places controlled by the Israeli government (or outlaw such boycotts) and
invoke civil rights laws to mobilize their supporters and find alternatives to
the feckless diplomatic efforts of government leaders.
But all these
movements and campaigns seek to mobilize constituencies that are deeply
divided. The Palestinians are divided between those who bear Israeli
citizenship and those who have other forms of residency, as well as among those
who live in East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza. They are divided between
those living in the one-state reality and those living in the diaspora. They
are divided between the Fatah political faction that holds sway in the West
Bank and the Hamas organization that controls Gaza. They are also increasingly
split along generational lines. Younger Palestinians feel less attached to the
movements that channeled the political commitments and energies of their
parents and grandparents and are more likely to gravitate to new groups and
adopt new tactics of resistance.
A Palestinian demonstrator in the Gaza Strip
Israeli Jews are similarly
divided about the nature of the state, the role of religion in politics, and a
host of other matters, including the rights of gays, lesbians, and other sexual
minorities. Liberal Israeli Jews have organized massive protests against
the Netanyahu government’s assault on democracy and the judiciary, but
they have mobilized around the Palestinian issue far less, showing how internal
disagreements have edged aside questions about a peace process that no longer
exists.
The result is that
leaders on both sides do not lead. There are politicians in all camps who want
to keep a lid on the conflict, generally not in service of any strategy for
resolution but out of a sense of inefficacy and inertia. Other politicians want
the opposite: to shake things up and move in a sharply different direction, as
U.S. President Donald Trump did with his “deal of the century,”
promising an end to the conflict in a matter that virtually erased Palestinian
rights and national aspirations. Jews pushing formal annexation of the occupied
territories and Palestinians advocating for new modes of resistance to Israeli
rule also hope to upend the status quo. But all such efforts founder on the
firmly established structures of power and interests.
Under these
conditions, any diplomacy undertaken in the name of resolving the conflict in a
just manner will likely fail because it misreads both the possible alternatives
to the current impasse and the will among all parties to achieve them.
Policymakers wishing to construct better choices will have to pay attention to
the ways in which the one-state system operates and evolves. They will need to
understand how its various inhabitants imagine their homeland, how rights are
enforced or violated, and how demographics are slowly but portentously
changing.
Ghosts Of The Arab Spring
Acknowledgment of the
one-state reality has important—and contradictory—implications for the Arab
world. The argument for the two-state solution has long assumed the importance
of the Palestinian cause to Arab publics, if not to their governments. The 2002
Saudi peace initiative, which offered normalization of relations between Israel
and all Arab states in exchange for complete Israeli withdrawal from the
occupied territories, established a baseline: peace with the Arab world would
require a resolution of the Palestinian issue.
The Abraham
Accords, brokered by the Trump administration and enthusiastically sustained by
the Biden administration, explicitly targeted that assumption by accelerating
political normalization and security cooperation between Israel and several
Arab states without requiring progress on the Palestinian issue. This
decoupling of Arab normalization from the Palestinian issue went a long way
toward entrenching the one-state reality.
Thus far, the Abraham
Accords have proved durable, surviving the formation of Netanyahu’s government
with its extremist ministers. The normalization of relations between Israel and
the UAE, at least, will likely outlast the next round of
Israeli-Palestinian violence and even overt Israeli moves toward annexation.
But since the accords were signed, no additional Arab countries have sought to
normalize relations with Israel, and Saudi Arabia has continued to
hedge its bets by holding off on establishing formal ties with Israel.
Arab normalization is
likely to remain tethered to the Palestinian issue indefinitely outside of the
Gulf countries. It is all too easy to imagine a scenario in which Israel moves
to confiscate more property in Jerusalem, provokes widespread Palestinian
protests, and then responds to this unrest with even greater violence and
faster dispossession—eventually triggering the final collapse of the
Palestinian Authority. Such an escalation could easily spark large-scale
protests across the Arab world, where long-simmering economic hardship and
political repression have created a tinderbox. There is also the even graver
threat that Israel will expel Palestinians from the West Bank or even
Jerusalem—a possibility, sometimes euphemistically called a “transfer,” that
polls suggest many Israeli Jews would support. And that is to say nothing of
how Hamas or Iran might exploit such conditions.
Arab rulers might not
care about the Palestinians, but their people do—and those rulers care about
nothing more than keeping their thrones. Fully abandoning the Palestinians
after more than half a century of at least rhetorical support would be risky.
Arab leaders do not fear losing elections, but they remember the Arab
uprisings of 2011 all too well, and they worry about anything that invites
mass popular mobilizations that could rapidly mutate into protests against
their regimes.
Exit, Voice, Or Loyalty?
Acknowledging the one-state
reality could also polarize the American conversation about Israel and the
Palestinians. Evangelicals and many others on the political right might embrace
this reality as the realization of what they consider legitimate Israeli
aspirations. Many Americans who are left of center may finally recognize that
Israel has fallen from the ranks of liberal democracies and may abandon the
fanciful promise of two states for the goal of a single state that grants equal
rights to all its residents.
The United States
bears considerable responsibility for entrenching the one-state reality, and it
continues to play a powerful role in framing and shaping the
Israeli-Palestinian issue. Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank
would not have survived and accelerated, and occupation would not have endured,
without U.S. efforts to shield Israel from repercussions at the United Nations
and other international organizations. Without American technology and arms,
Israel would probably not have been able to sustain its military edge in the
region, which also enabled it to solidify its position in the occupied
territories. And without major U.S. diplomatic efforts and resources, Israel
could not have concluded peace agreements with Arab states, from Camp David to
the Abraham Accords.
Yet the American
conversation about Israel and the Palestinians has willfully neglected the ways
in which Washington has abetted the occupation. U.S. support for the peace
process has been couched both in terms of Israel’s security and in terms of the
idea that only a two-state solution could preserve Israel as both Jewish and
democratic. These two goals have always been in tension, but a one-state
reality makes them irreconcilable.
Although the
Israeli-Palestinian issue has never been high on the American public’s list of
priorities, U.S. attitudes have shifted notably: support for a two-state
solution has declined, and support for a single state that ensures equal
citizenship has risen over the past few years. Polls show that most American
voters would support a democratic Israel over a Jewish one, if forced to
choose. Views on Israel have also become far more partisan, with Republicans,
especially evangelicals, growing more supportive of Israeli policies and the
overwhelming majority of Democrats preferring an evenhanded U.S. policy. Young
Democrats now express more support for the Palestinians than for Israel. One
reason for this shift, especially among young Democrats, is that the
Israeli-Palestinian issue is increasingly viewed as an issue of social justice
rather than strategic interest or biblical prophecy. This has been particularly
true in the era of Black Lives Matter.
The one-state reality
has especially roiled the politics of Jewish Americans. From the earliest years
of Zionism, most Jewish American supporters of Israel held as sacrosanct the
aspiration for Israel to be simultaneously Jewish and liberal. Netanyahu’s
latest government might be the breaking point for this group. It is difficult
to square a commitment to liberalism with support for a single state that
offers the benefits of democracy to Jews (and now seems to tread on some of
those) but explicitly withholds them from the majority of its non-Jewish
inhabitants.
Most Jewish Americans
see basic liberal principles such as freedom of opinion and expression, the
rule of law, and democracy not only as Jewish values but also as bulwarks
against discrimination that ensure their acceptance and even survival in the
United States. Yet Israel’s commitment to liberalism has always been shaky. As
a Jewish state, it fosters a form of ethnic nationalism rather than a civic
one, and its Orthodox Jewish citizens play an outsize role in determining how
Judaism shapes Israeli life.
In 1970, the
political economist Albert Hirschman wrote that members of organizations in
crisis or decline have three options: “exit, voice, and loyalty.” Jewish
Americans have those same options today. One camp, which arguably dominates
major Jewish institutions in the United States, exhibits loyalty enabled by denial
of the one-state reality. Voice is the increasingly dominant choice of Jewish
Americans who were previously in the peace camp. Once focused on achieving
a two-state solution, these Americans now direct their activism toward
defending Palestinian rights, safeguarding the shrinking space for Israeli
civil society, and resisting the dangers posed by Netanyahu’s right-wing
government. Finally, there are the Jewish Americans who have chosen exit, or
indifference. They simply do not think much about Israel. That might be because
they do not have a strong Jewish identity or because they see Israel as
misaligned with or even opposed to their values. There is some evidence that
the more Israel lurches to the right, the larger this group becomes, especially
among young Jewish Americans.
Reality Check
So far, the Biden
administration has sought to sustain the status quo while urging Israel to
avoid major provocations. In response to continued settlement construction in
the West Bank and other Israeli violations of international law, the United
States has issued empty statements calling on Israel to avoid actions that
undermine a two-state solution. But this approach misdiagnoses the problem and
only makes it worse: Netanyahu’s far-right government is a symptom, not a
cause, of the one-state reality, and coddling it in an attempt to coax it
toward moderation will only embolden its extremist leaders by showing that they
pay no price for their actions.
The United States
could instead meet a radicalized reality with a radical response. For starters,
Washington should banish the terms “two-state solution” and “peace process”
from its vocabulary. U.S. calls for Israelis and Palestinians to return to the
negotiating table rely on magical thinking. Changing the way the United States
talks about the Israeli-Palestinian issue will change nothing on the ground,
but it will strip away a facade that has allowed U.S. policymakers to avoid
confronting reality. Washington must look at Israel as it is and not as it
has been assumed to be—and act accordingly. Israel no longer even pretends to
maintain liberal aspirations. The United States does not have “shared
values” and should not have “unbreakable bonds” with a state that discriminates
against or abuses millions of its residents based on their ethnicity and
religion.
A better U.S. policy
would advocate for equality, citizenship, and human rights for all Jews and
Palestinians living within the single state dominated by Israel. Theoretically,
such a policy would not prevent a two-state solution from being resurrected in
the unlikely event that the parties moved in that direction in the distant
future. But starting from a one-state reality that is morally reprehensible and
strategically costly would demand an immediate focus on equal human and civil
rights. A serious rejection of today’s unjust reality by the United States and
the rest of the international community might also push the parties themselves
to seriously consider alternative futures. The United States should demand
equality now, even if the ultimate political arrangement will be up to the
Palestinians and the Israelis to determine.
To that end,
Washington should begin conditioning military and economic aid to Israel on
clear and specific measures to terminate Israel’s military rule over the
Palestinians. Avoiding such conditionality has made Washington deeply complicit
in the one-state reality. Should Israel persist on its current path, the United
States should consider sharply reducing aid and other privileges, perhaps even
imposing smart, targeted sanctions on Israel and Israeli leaders in response to
clearly transgressive actions. Israel can decide for itself what it wants to
do, but the United States and other democracies can make sure it knows the
costs of maintaining and even intensifying a deeply illiberal, discriminatory
order.
The clearest global
vision articulated by the Biden administration has been its full-throated
defense of international laws and norms in response to Russia’s invasion
of Ukraine. Even if one ignores the one-state reality, the same norms and
values would surely be at stake in Israel and Palestine, as is widely
understood across the global South. When Israel violates international
laws and liberal norms, the United States should denounce Israel for those
violations as it would any other state. Washington needs to stop shielding
Israel in international organizations when it faces valid allegations of
transgressions against international law. And it needs to refrain from
vetoing UN Security Council resolutions that aim to hold
Israel accountable, stop resisting Palestinian efforts to seek redress in
international courts, and rally other countries to demand an end to the siege of
Gaza—another supposedly temporary measure that has become a cruel and an
institutionalized reality.
But the one-state
reality demands more. Looked at through that prism, Israel resembles an
apartheid state. Instead of exempting Israel from the
strong norm against apartheid, enshrined in international law, Washington must
reckon with the reality it helped create and begin viewing that reality,
talking about it, and interacting with it honestly. The United States
could stand up for international, Israeli, and Palestinian nongovernmental
organizations, human rights organizations, and individual activists who have
been demonized for courageously calling out structural injustice. Washington
must protect Israeli civil society organizations that are the country’s last
refuge of liberal values and Palestinian ones whose efforts will be critical to
avoiding bloody conflict in the months to come. The United States should also
oppose Israeli arrests of Palestinian leaders who offer a nonviolent vision of
popular resistance. And it should not seek to stop or punish those who choose
to peacefully boycott Israel because of its abusive policies.
Although Washington
cannot prevent normalization of relations between Israel and its Arab
neighbors, the United States should not lead such efforts. Nobody should be
fooled by the mirage of the Abraham Accords thriving while the Palestinian
issue festers. Decoupling such normalization agreements from Israel’s treatment
of Palestinians has only empowered the Israeli far right and cemented Jewish
supremacy within the state.
These U.S. policy
changes would not immediately bear fruit. The political backlash would be
fierce, even though Americans—especially Democrats—have grown far more critical
of Israel than have the politicians they elect. But in the long run, these
changes offer the best hope for moving toward a more peaceful and just outcome
in Israel and Palestine. By finally confronting the one-state reality and
taking a principled stand, the United States would stop being part of the
problem and start being part of the solution.
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