By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Will Washington Officially Classify Pakistan as a Nuclear Adversary?

If successful, the development would mark a significant expansion of Islamabad's strategic military reach and could lead Washington to officially classify it as a nuclear adversary.

Although Pakistan claims its nuclear program is strictly focused on deterring India, which enjoys conventional military superiority, U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded that the Pakistani military is developing an ICBM that could reach the continental United States.

US intelligence agencies believe that this potential ICBM program is part of Pakistan's broader attempt to deter not only India but also the United States from interfering in any South Asian conflict in the future.

 

Why is the US worried about Pakistan's nuclear missile program?

The report states that US intelligence agencies believe Pakistan is not only expanding its nuclear arsenal but is also developing ICBMs with the potential to hit targets across the Atlantic.

If Pakistan acquires an ICBM, Washington will have no choice but to treat the country as a nuclear adversary. No other country with ICBMs that can target the United States is considered a friend.”  While Pakistan continues to insist that its nuclear program is designed solely to deter India, US agencies are not buying that narrative anymore. Instead, they believe Pakistan’s missile development may be aimed at deterring US involvement in any future India-Pakistan conflict or a preemptive strike against its arsenal.

 

How close is Pakistan to developing an ICBM?

The exact status of Pakistan’s ICBM development is classified, but intelligence officials say the program is gaining momentum, with signs that Islamabad is sourcing critical technology and materials from China, a long-time ally.

This push for a long-range missile capability reportedly intensified after Operation Sindoor, a covert operation that rattled Pakistan’s military establishment, though the report didn’t disclose specific details about that mission.

At present, Pakistan is estimated to possess about 165 nuclear warheads, according to global defense analysts. Most of its current missile systems are medium-range, designed to counter threats from India. But the development of an intercontinental missile would represent a significant strategic leap.

 

Is China playing its long game to make Pakistan another proxy against the US?

This is the question now dominating discussions inside US strategic circles.

Furthermore, Beijing’s involvement in Pakistan’s missile program is deeper than previously thought. Intelligence sources point to covert transfers of missile materials, nuclear assistance, and joint development activities.

 

 

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