By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

What Next After Qatar Suspends Mediator Role

Qatar has suspended its work as a mediator in ceasefire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas, officials say.

It comes after senior US officials reportedly said Washington would no longer accept the presence of Hamas representatives in Qatar, accusing the Palestinian group of rejecting fresh proposals for an end to the war in Gaza.

 

How We Got Here

To understand how we got here, it’s worth looking at history. Doha has managed to position itself as indispensable by hosting the group that carried out October 7, and then making it seem that having Hamas in Qatar would somehow help with a ceasefire or hostage deal.

One might wonder, if Hamas had never been in Qatar, would it have grown so powerful to do October 7? One might also wonder how none of the intelligence services in the region had any hint that Hamas was going to do this unprecedented attack. If it was a benefit, having Hamas in Doha, then why didn’t that prevent the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust.

If it was a benefit to have Hamas in Qatar, then why didn’t Hamas moderate itself via Doha’s pressure? Why didn’t Qatar condemn October 7? Why didn’t Doha even appear surprised by the Hamas onslaught? One would think that most countries hosting a group would be surprised if the group massacred 1,000 people.

Doha’s hosting of Hamas has been in the spotlight for years. Each time there was a push to get Hamas to leave Doha, there would be pushback. The argument was that it was better to have a Western partner and ally hosting Hamas because this would facilitate dialogue with the group. In addition, funding flowed from Doha to Gaza. This funding included money for reconstruction after the 2014 war and it also included money that paid salaries. The theory was that the money would keep Hamas happy. If the money stopped, then Hamas would go to war.

 

Hamas's wider strategy

Doha’s hosting of Hamas was part of a wider global strategy. It also positioned itself as a host of the Taliban so that it could be a key conduit between the US and the Taliban. As such Doha became the broker of many deals in the region and globally. For instance, it also positioned itself as a mediator with Iran, because Qatar has good ties with Iran. At each juncture, Doha benefits from being a mediator but it also has good ties with both sides and often supports one more than the other. For instance, the Taliban have now crushed women’s rights in Afghanistan. The Taliban being hosted by Doha paved their way to return in 2021. It’s likely that having successfully brought the Taliban back to power, Qatar believed it could also bring Hamas to power in the West Bank.

Doha, Qatar - August 2: A man holds a Palestinian flag as people attend a funeral ceremony, held for Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh:

 

Qatar Not a Neutral Mediator

Qatar does not appear to be a neutral mediator. It appears to often prefer more hardline groups, such as Hamas or the Taliban, or groups linked to the Muslim Brotherhood. However, Doha also knows how to be flexible. During the Gulf crisis when Saudi Arabia and the other Arab states broke relations with Qatar, it weathered the storm until it could reconcile with Riyadh. It also reconciled with Cairo.

Qatar is a keen ally of Turkey and the two countries generally share interests. Both of them are allies of the West officially but both are happy to work with opponents of the West. Both of them believe this independent policy benefits them more than merely being on the side of the west. Balancing the West and other countries, such as Iran, can make the “mediator” indispensable to both sides.

Now reports indicate that rather than expelling Hamas, Doha may be threatening to end its role as a mediator. This ostensibly presents Israel and the US with the worst of both worlds. Hamas could remain in Qatar and Doha wouldn’t mediate. The real story is likely more complex. Qatar has often hinted in the past that any pressure it receives from Washington or even critique of its role in Congress, could harm the hostage talks.

In essence, Doha positioned itself as mediator by hosting Hamas and then tries to pressure countries into using it as a mediator. This is not a neutral place to be, when mediation is the business. It’s not altruistic, it’s purposely hosting Hamas to make itself a player so that it can become the mediator, so that countries have to go via Doha to get things done.

Reports that Hamas might be asked to leave could be a trial balloon, and Doha’s decision to then claim it is ending its role as a mediator may be designed to send a message to Israel and the US that if there is any pressure on Doha, then Qatar will walk away and the hostage talks and ceasefire talks will end. This would then be used to pressure Israel by claiming no other countries will step in as mediators.

The US election on November 5 could also play a role here. Reports say that incoming US President Donald Trump wants the Gaza war to end. Doha could be signaling to the incoming administration that it will not be threatened with pressuring Hamas to end the war and that any attempt to get Hamas out of Doha will result in a longer war. Of course, the US and others could call this bluff. The overall goal of Qatar is to keep the ball in its court and make sure that it is the go-to in the region whenever there is conflict. 

 

The Last Attempts to Reach an Agreement?

Qatar notified the parties 10 days ago during the last attempts to reach an agreement, that it would stall its efforts to mediate between Hamas and Israel if an agreement was not reached in that round," a statement from the Qatari foreign ministry said.

"Qatar will resume those efforts... when the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war."

Hamas has had a base in the Qatari capital since 2012, reportedly at the request of the Obama administration.

Several news agencies reported on Saturday that Qatar had agreed with the US to tell Hamas to close its political office in Doha due to "a refusal to negotiate a deal in good faith".

But the foreign ministry said the reports were "inaccurate". The claims have also been denied by Hamas officials.

The small but influential Gulf state is a key US ally in the region. It hosts a major American air base and has handled many delicate political negotiations, including with Iran, the Taliban, and Russia.

Alongside the US and Egypt, the Qataris have also played a major role in rounds of so-far unsuccessful talks to broker a ceasefire in the year-long war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

But there is growing evidence of a shift in the relationship.

After the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Hamas held a two-hour mourning tent in Doha in a small hall, a stark contrast to the recent three-day mourning held for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which was conducted with official state oversight and security.

The latest round of talks in mid-October failed to produce a deal, with Hamas rejecting a short-term ceasefire proposal. The group has always called for a complete end to the war and the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The Qatari foreign ministry statement said: "Media reports regarding the Hamas office in Doha are inaccurate."

"The main goal of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication... [which] has contributed to achieving a ceasefire in previous stages."

Israel has also been accused of rejecting deals. Days after being fired earlier this week, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of rejecting a peace deal against the advice of his security chiefs.

The call for Hamas to be expelled from Qatar appears to be an attempt by the outgoing Biden administration to force some sort of peace deal before the end of his term in January.

Were Hamas to be forced to leave Doha, it is unclear where they would base their political office. Key ally Iran would be an option, although the assassination of former leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July suggests they may be at risk from Israel if based there. It would also not give them anything close to the same diplomatic channels as the West.

 

Turkey a More Likely Mediator?

A more likely option would be Turkey. As a Nato member but also a Sunni majority state, it would give the group a base from which to operate in relative safety. Erdogan sympathizes with Hamas’s cause. Last April President Erdogan hosted Hamas leaders in Istanbul, where they talked about “what needs to be done to ensure adequate and uninterrupted delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza and a fair and lasting peace process in the region".

The move would also most likely be welcomed by Ankara, which has often sought to position itself as a broker between east and west.

Key Hamas figures such as Osama Hamdan, Taher al-Nunu, and others frequently featured on news outlets have been staying in Istanbul for over a month.

Their extended presence in Turkey marks a departure from past visits, which were typically limited to brief stays.

It is thought the personal safety of Hamas leadership is now a major concern for the group, which saw two leaders killed in less than four months. As well as Haniyeh’s death in July, in October Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the 7 October Hamas attack on southern Israel.

According to the European Council of Foreign Relations, “Hamas has adopted a temporary model of collective leadership to mitigate the effect of future Israeli assassinations”.

H A Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), told the BBC that nowhere “will give them protection from Israeli assassination attempts in the same way that being in Doha, where America has its largest military base in the region, did”.

The latest move comes as US officials appear increasingly frustrated with the approach the Israeli government has taken to ending the war. In October, the US Secretaries of State and Defense said if Israel did not allow more humanitarian aid into the territory by 12 November, they would face unspecified policy “implications”.

Last weekend several UN officials warned the situation in northern Gaza was “apocalyptic”. On Saturday the independent Famine Review Committee said there was a “strong likelihood that famine is imminent in areas”.

The relationship between President Joe Biden and Netanyahu has deteriorated throughout the war in Gaza, with increasing pressure from Washington to improve the humanitarian situation for the Palestinians and find some sort of negotiated settlement.

 

 

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