By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Iran’s Regional Position Is Crumbling

A day after Iran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at targets across the country, Israeli officials on Oct. 2 announced plans for major retaliation, potentially against Iranian oil production and nuclear facilities. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan similarly warned Tehran of “severe consequences,” as Washington said it would support Israel’s response. Separately, Israel started a ground offensive in southern Lebanon to drive Hezbollah fighters north of the Litani River.

Iran’s missile barrage – its second against Israel in six months – came only days after an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. At least half a dozen other high-ranking figures in the group have died in Israeli airstrikes in a little over a week.

Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah’s leadership and war-making capabilities has paved the way for a massive altering of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. After decades on the offensive, Iran has suffered a huge setback in its strategy for the region. Not only is Tehran facing a regional reversal, but its position at home is also vulnerable given its direct confrontation with Israel. These developments have created a historic opportunity for the United States, Turkey and, to a lesser extent, the Arab states to roll back the disproportionate influence that Iran has built over the past four decades.

 

Knockout Blow

Hezbollah has never been so weakened. Founded in the early 1980s, the group developed into the dominant force in Lebanon, stronger even than the Lebanese armed forces. In 2000, it forced Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon after an 18-year occupation. Six years later, it reaffirmed its military prowess when it battled Israel to a stalemate. So impressive were the group’s achievements that Iran made it the foundation of its regional strategy. Tehran modeled its armed proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen after Hezbollah, which became Iran’s junior partner in the cultivation of its proxy network.

The damage to the group’s military capabilities and the destruction of multiple levels of its leadership are thus systemic blows to Iran’s regional sphere of influence and national security. With Hezbollah threatening Israel’s northern flank, Iran could implement an aggressive foreign policy in the Arab world and advance its nuclear program without much threat of an Israeli attack.

For the same reason, Israel determined that the key to countering its strategic encirclement by Iranian proxies was to cripple Hezbollah. An opportunity to execute its plans developed over the past year, in the wake of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. As Israeli forces swept through Gaza, bent on Hamas’ annihilation, Iran coordinated with its proxies to drain Israel’s resources while enhancing Tehran’s own position. While the Yemen-based Houthis disrupted commercial shipping with drones and missiles, Hezbollah lobbed rockets and artillery at Israel’s northern townships.

With its Gaza operation ongoing, the Israeli leadership shifted its focus to the northern front, accelerating its attacks against Hezbollah. For months, Israel had been increasingly eliminating Hezbollah leaders and Iranian military commanders, but the turning point came last month when it detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by the group and took out much of its senior military leadership in airstrikes. The Israeli campaign culminated last Friday with an airstrike on Hezbollah’s command bunker that killed the group’s leader of 32 years, Hassan Nasrallah, under whose leadership Hezbollah became the formidable force it is known as today.

On Tuesday, Israel launched a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, initially declaring its intent to push Hezbollah away from the border. However, likely due to its early success, Israel enlarged its goals. It now wants to translate Hezbollah’s military losses into political weakening, creating an opportunity for Hezbollah’s opponents to rise up and limit the group's power. If Israel is successful, it could spell the demise of Iran’s regional strategy, but it also risks sparking a civil war in Lebanon, which is no stranger to internal conflict.

 

Domino Effect

Hezbollah’s weakening has significant implications for Syria. Since 2011, Hezbollah and Iran have been crucial in propping up Bashar Assad’s regime. However, Assad has kept his distance from the current Israel-Hezbollah conflict, focusing instead on mending ties with Arab states and Turkey. He recognizes his overreliance on Iran and Hezbollah, especially after the Syrian civil war, and sees Russia, his other key ally, weakening due to the Ukraine war. Assad will try to manage the situation in Lebanon carefully to prevent it from destabilizing his fragile regime. A weakened Hezbollah and Iran could embolden Syrian rebel groups, a threat Assad wants to avoid. Meanwhile, Turkey, historically checked by Iranian influence in Iraq and the Levant, will likely seek to expand its influence.

The situation marks a severe setback for Iran, jeopardizing its four-decade effort to build a sphere of influence from Tehran to the Eastern Mediterranean. After the events of the past few days, that is the least of Tehran’s worries. Iran now faces the threat of imminent and unprecedented Israeli strikes on its territory and new revelations about the regime’s weakness. Multiple rounds of tit-for-tat strikes are possible, even if the distance between Israel and Iran makes a sustained direct war unlikely.

Iran is far weaker than Israel and stands to lose more in such a conflict. One of Tehran's main concerns is that a conflict could destabilize the country as the regime approaches a historic leadership transition. However, if Israel’s retaliation is extensive, the conflict could spill over into the Gulf and potentially involve the United States. Though the situation remains fluid, what is certain is that Iran, after some four decades as an ascendant regional power, is now in sharp decline.

 

 

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