By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Three commercial ships have been damaged by "unknown projectiles" in the Strait of Hormuz here's why the shipping channel is so important  23 crew members on board one ship are being rescued, pictures show smoke billowing from the vessel  Earlier, the US military said it "eliminated" 16 Iranian mine-laying ships in the area, after President Trump warned Iran not to "put out any mines" there  Iran continues its strikes across the region, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.

Four people were injured when two drones fell near Dubai airport, but air traffic has not been affected. As our correspondent reports, it's the second drone attack in the area in recent days. Israel launches more attacks on Iran and Lebanon. In central Beirut, there is "absolute shock" after an apartment building was hit, our correspondent says.

Earlier, Iran's police chief said any Iranians thinking of protesting against the government would be dealt with "in the same way we deal with the enemy."

Cargo ship catches fire in Strait of Hormuz after three vessels hit by '... The reports of attacks on commercial ships came after the US said it "eliminated" 16 Iranian mine-layers.

A banner depicting Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is seen on a building in Tehran, Iran, on Tuesday, March 10.

President Donald Trump’s top aides are already scripting a victory narrative in Iran for the inevitable day when he tries to extricate himself from the war. The White House is conjuring a surreal endgame scenario that he will personally certify an unconditional surrender by the Islamic Republic, even if it’s not true. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says only Trump can judge whether the war is at “the beginning, the middle, or the end.” It’s as if his boss is the sole arbiter of reality amid a raging regional conflagration.

Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks at a news conference at the Pentagon on Tuesday, March 10, 2026.

Iran’s revolutionary leaders are unlikely to cooperate since Trump’s choreography will clash with their core objective in an existential fight: outlasting Americans’ tolerance for a new foreign war.

And the Middle East’s tormented history shows violence is not a tap that can just be turned off. Each new war merely refreshes the historical grievance that feeds the next one. This bitter experience means Israelis, Lebanese, Iranians, and their regional brethren will be less sanguine than Trump’s team about the future.

Furthermore, America’s own recent past suggests that conflicts often defy presidential exit strategies and rarely culminate in unequivocal victories such as those over Germany and Japan in World War II.

 

Why the White House needs to think about an endgame

An F/A-18E Super Hornet makes an arrested landing on the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in support of Operation Epic Fury, on February 28.

Potential paths to halting US military operations might still be a way off. But there’s increasing urgency to identify them as an oil crisis ignited by the war threatens global economic disaster. And Trump’s fragile political position risks being further weakened by elevated gasoline prices he insists are “temporary.”

Gas prices have risen 50 cents per gallon since the war with Iran started.

A historic disruption to the world’s oil production sent crude prices smashing through the $100 barrier Monday for the first time in nearly four years, before prices settled just below $100.

As the war with Iran drags on, oil futures could have considerably more room to run even higher.

In fact, oil prices very nearly hit $120 a barrel overnight before reports surfaced that Western nations would discuss steps to alleviate high fuel prices. That eased a bit of tension in the marketplace.

US crude prices settled at $94.77 a barrel, up 4.3% Monday. Brent, the international benchmark, rose 6.8% to $98.96 a barrel.

Crude oil prices neared $120 a barrel Monday, their highest level in almost four years. The price of Brent has since fallen closer to $90 but remains around 25% higher than it was before the US and Israel attacked Iran.

 

What’s going on?

The war with Iran has sent oil prices higher for two primary reasons: a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and a slowdown in oil production in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil travels via tankers. Iran has threatened to attack any tanker transiting the strait. That has led to a standstill in oil pickups and deliveries in the region.

The estimated 20% of disrupted supply is roughly twice as big as the record set during the Suez Crisis of 1956-1957, according to historical data from Rapidan Energy Group.

The war has also effectively wiped out the spare capacity, because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been cut off from global oil markets. Spare capacity measures how much more oil production could quickly be brought back online, if needed, and it typically serves as a shock absorber in energy markets.

The result is a market with no meaningful cushion. There is no swing producer to step in.

Because oil isn’t moving, producers in the oil-rich region have run out of room to put their crude. They’ve been left with no choice but to slow down their output.

Notes: Shows price per gallon for regular gasoline. Last updated Mar. 11, 2026 at 5 a.m. ET.

As oil prices have surged, so too have gasoline prices. US gas prices have risen about 50 cents in a week to $3.48 a gallon, higher than at any point in either of President Donald Trump’s terms.

 

How long could this last?

The good news: The world has plenty of oil. We were sitting on a supply glut before the war, which is why oil had been so cheap, trading for around $60 a barrel before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

Oil traders don’t think $100 oil is here to stay. Looking forward to contracts for delivery in 2027 and 2028, oil futures are trading in the high $60s, noted Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

The good news: The world has plenty of oil. We were sitting on a supply glut before the war, which is why oil had been so cheap, trading for around $60 a barrel before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.

The bad news: This war with Iran is lasting longer than most traders had initially expected. The historic spikes in oil prices reflect that early complacency is giving way to the harsh reality that the war isn’t going to be over in a matter of days.

One could say that the move is a bit overdone in the very short term, but if between now and the end of March you don’t have an amelioration of traffic around the strait, we could go to $150 a barrel.

Meanwhile, governments are working to alleviate some of the pressure on prices in the market: The G7 nations’ finance ministers will meet Monday to discuss joint release of oil reserves. And the Trump administration continued to promote a plan to supply insurance to oil tankers passing through the strait, after maritime insurers said they would not cover ships in the region if they were attacked.

The White House also said it would work to secure naval escorts for ships, but a plan hasn’t emerged, and shipping companies have said they are hesitant to traverse the region while the conflict continues.

A family sits against the backdrop of a dockyard off the coast city of Fujairah, in the Strait of Hormuz in the northern Emirate on February 25, ahead of the start of the war that closed the strait to traffic.

For commercial seafarers, there’s little President Donald Trump could say right now that would convince them to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has promised to provide government-backed insurance policies and naval escorts to keep ships moving. But threats from Iran to attack any ships in the region outweigh the promises of support.

As long as they keep firing rockets or drones at merchant vessels, this unsafe feeling will remain there.

Zero tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, March 11, a narrow channel just off Iran’s southern coast that’s normally packed with an armada of 60 or more ships carrying 20% of the world’s oil. The Gulf today is packed with tankers and other ships unable to get out, including Salgado’s, which is anchored off the coast of Iraq.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints connecting the oil-rich Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. Here's what global oil-tanker traffic looked like during a week in January 2026.

Oil tanker traffic, Jan. 23-30, 2026

Major shipping lines Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have stopped accepting most cargo destined for the Persian Gulf countries. Since fighting in Iran broke out over the weekend, maritime insurers have yanked war-related coverage for shipping companies.

There are dangers that the entire global supply chain could be upended, raising costs for businesses and their customers. The effective shutdown has already sent oil prices surging above $80 to their highest level since August 2024.

Trump’s plan is designed to give shipping companies assurances that they’d be able to move through the strait. But Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said he doesn’t know of any shipping line that would take the risk.

“I have no evidence that (those promises) can be carried through,” said Seroka, who previously worked for American President Lines in the Middle East. “I just don’t see how it is possible with all my years in this industry. And I don’t see how we put folks at even more risk and be live targets in the open seas.”

Seroka said that after talking with shipping executives, it would take nothing short of a ceasefire to get commercial ships moving again.

 

US confident of escort plans

Currently no specific timeline for launching the Naval escort, but there’s a concerted effort to set the conditions for the operation as soon as possible.

Right now, the biggest issue is just physical security. One doesn't want to run a large tanker ship through the Strait of Hormuz today, but that’ll change in the not-too-distant future.

US officials view the strait as part of an active conflict zone where Iran has taken action to target several tankers.

The military is focused on reining in Iran’s ability to “terrorize” the region first, the official said, but then will be able to help get ship traffic once again flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz.

The administration also isn’t concerned with the spike in oil and gas prices, which has boosted the average price of a US gallon to a 

The key thing to look at is we’re in a conflict today that’ll be quite temporary. The world is at absolutely zero risk of running out of oil or energy through this conflict, but we are suffering a short-term price dislocation.

Still, the administration’s actions over the course of the last few days telegraph a level of concern that isn’t reflected in the more sanguine public statements from Trump and his top officials.

 

Risk to more than tankers

There are tremendous concerns by the shipping industry about operating so close to a war zone.

First and foremost for companies is concern for crew safety, said Sanne Manders, President of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company. But they also don’t want to put their physical cargo ships at risk, even with the promise of insurance.

These companies want to ensure that) Their vessels are safe because they are very expensive. It’s hundreds of millions of dollars, so they’re not going to put those assets at risk for a commercial transaction.

There are also significant doubts about whether there are enough Navy ships to escort commercial vessels, given that 60 or more tankers typically traverse the strait each day.

Naval escorts would help reduce the threat to the ships being protected. That said, protecting all tankers operating in areas currently threatened by Iran is unrealistic, as this would require a very high number of warships and other military assets.

A satellite view of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, on January 11, 2025.

The US military provided escort service for tankers from the oil-rich Gulf states during the earlier Iran-Iraq war.

 

Rising costs for all shipping

In the near term, shippers are contending with rising prices for fuel. The world’s largest container shipping company, MSC, already announced fuel surcharges on shipments until at least April. That cost will likely be passed onto businesses and ultimately consumers.

But bigger problems are looming if ships don’t get moving again.

One major concern is that the crisis will throw the entire global supply chain out of whack as it did during the height of the pandemic. Empty containers in the wrong locations, ships gridlocked outside of ports and other logistical problems raised prices sharply for a wide variety of goods.

“The longer it takes, the higher the chance is that there is going to be port congestion,” said Flexport’s Manders, who said ships destined for the Persian Gulf will head elsewhere.

“Ports, especially in Asia, are already quite full…And that is going to impact global shipping,” he added.

The US-allied Gulf states are also cut off from receiving shipments. That’s critical as six Gulf Arab nations, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait import about 85% of their food.

View from Martín Izaguirre Salgado’s vessel in Khor Al Zubair, Iraq, the last time it was anchored there.

The above ship has been anchored outside Iraq since February 26, about 400 nautical miles from the strait. Its still waiting to load up and head to Bangladesh.

His contract had originally been due to end Friday. He still wishes he were just a day away from returning home to Spain.

 

 

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