By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Trouble With The South China Sea

In 2010, Chinese commentators began to describe the South China Sea as one of China’s “core interests,” on a par with Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet. China was on the offensive even in the East China and Yellow seas. Occasionally, rather difficult incidents occurred that fired up public opinion in China, Japan, and the other countries involved. Defense forces were strengthened. The issues involved not only ownership of the islands but also control over sea lanes and potentially large oil, natural gas, and fish reserves. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan have claims over the area, and tensions often threaten to boil over.

Contrary to today, little attention had been given to sovereignty in the South China Sea until the 1960s and 1970s, when international oil companies began prospecting in the region. Except that Washington didn’t artificially build the Hawaiian islands. Having moved surface-to-air missiles over to one of the islands, there is no doubt that China is currently militarizing the situation.

For example, China has fully militarized three islands in the South China Sea. For example, see Chinese structures and buildings below at the man-made island of Mischief Reef in the Spratlys group of islands in the South China Sea.

During August 2023, China is increasing its control over this strategic area of the Asia-Pacific by constructing an airstrip on an islet in the Paracel archipelago.

The South China Sea is undoubtedly one of the world's most strategically and economically essential waterways with militarized implications. In 2016, more than 21% of global trade was estimated by UN bodies to have transited through it, and it contains extensive oil and gas reserves.

But as seen above, it is highly contested. China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan all have claims over areas within the 3.5m sq km area, many of which overlap. Brunei is the only party that does not lay claim over any disputed islands, but it does say that part of the sea falls within its exclusive economic zone.

The US isn’t a claimant but says the water is crucial to its national interest. It often conducts freedom of navigation operations (Fonops) through the area in a message to all parties.

On 12 July 2016, the arbitral tribunal adjudicating the Philippines’ case against China in the South China Sea ruled overwhelmingly in favor of the Philippines, determining that major elements of China’s claim—including its nine-dash line, recent land reclamation activities, and other activities in Philippine waters—were unlawful.

 

The Nine-Dash Line

China’s claim is the most extensive and most controversial. It marks most of the South China Sea as its sovereign territory with the so-called “nine-dash line,” claiming historical rights. 2013, the Philippines took this to an international tribunal in The Hague, which ruled against China. However, Beijing refused to participate in the hearings and rejected the ruling.

The nine-dash line is a set of line segments on various maps that accompanied the claims of the People's Republic of China (PRC, "mainland China") and the Republic of China (ROC, "Taiwan") in the South China Sea.[1] The contested area includes the Paracel Islands,[a] the Spratly Islands[b],[2] the Pratas Island and the Vereker Banks, the Macclesfield Bank, and the Scarborough Shoal. Certain places have undergone land reclamation by the PRC, ROC, and Vietnam.[3][4][5] The People's Daily of the PRC uses the term Duànxùxiàn (断续线) or Nánhǎi Duànxùxiàn (南海断续线; lit. 'South Sea intermittent line'), while the ROC government uses the term Shíyīduàn xiàn (十一段線; lit. 'eleven-segment line').

The nine-dash line (in green)

Several claimants have occupied islands, reclaimed lands, and built military structures to assert their claims. China’s efforts have been the most extensive, and it also maintains a heavy presence in the area with its navy, coast guard, and maritime militia – a paramilitary fishing fleet – which sometimes conducts dangerous or aggressive actions against other parties.

The decades-long tensions often boil over into standoffs and hostilities. Analysts have expressed concern that hostilities between China and the Philippines, particularly, threaten to escalate.

A US F/A-18E Super Hornet takes off from the flight deck of the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76). US aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan has been operating in the South China Sea amid rising tensions over Taiwan:

Hence, the biggest concern about China’s military expansion is how it ties into plans to annex Taiwan. The risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is the highest in decades, but predictions of when it might happen vary. Several senior US military leaders have recently offered alarmingly imminent dates, including 2023, 2025, and 2027. American assessments are crucial, given the US military may help defend Taiwan against Chinese attacks. Still, some analysts caution that these military figures are likely exaggerating to lobby for more funding. Sources say the public predictions have frustrated Taiwan’s president, who is trying to ensure people are worried enough about the China threat to support her policies but not so much that they give up hope.

 

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