By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Bharatiya Janata Party Suffer A Setback

Further to our yesterday's article, uring his decade in office, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has enjoyed a remarkable capacity to bounce back. Failed agricultural reforms, botched efforts to curb communal violence, mass protests, catastrophic public health crises—none of this has dented his massive appeal or threatened his ability to survive at the ballot box. Whatever was thrown at him, nothing stuck.

India’s national elections began in April; in February, Modi held a 75 percent approval rating. But on Tuesday, when the official results were released, Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced a major setback, losing their parliamentary majority. The party won the election but with a smaller lead than many observers—and a bevy of exit polls last weekend—had predicted.

Modi boasted that the BJP-led alliance could win 400 seats of 543 in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house; in the end, it claimed fewer than 300. The BJP’s poor showing in Uttar Pradesh was the most stunning result. India’s most populous state is a long-standing BJP stronghold, but the party also failed to win the most seats there.

The BJP still won the most seats in the Lok Sabha, its vote share (about 37 percent) was similar to that of the 2019 election, and Modi is poised to lead the government for a third straight term—a feat achieved by only one other Indian leader, independence hero Jawaharlal Nehru. However, the outcome of the election has shattered the aura of invincibility around Modi, which has long defined him as a politician.

So, what tore the Teflon off Modi’s political skin? There are many explanations. One is economic stress. Inflation and unemployment are still hammering India, including in states known as BJP bastions. Another factor is a backlash against Hindu nationalism and political repression. And in a striking role reversal, the BJP has been blamed for electoral miscalculations and the opposition praised for its savvy tactics to strengthen its prospects in BJP-friendly states.

Then there’s anti-incumbency. Ten years is a long time for the same democratically elected leader to be in power. For all his popularity, Modi may have lost some of his shine. That makes his potential vulnerabilities—economic stress, divisive rhetoric, autocratic tendencies—more glaring and his potential strengths—economic growth, India’s increasing global power, his incorruptibility—less compelling.

Devesh Kapur, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, argues in Foreign Policy this week that the BJP’s supremacy in India may have peaked and that coalition governments are back to stay. “For the BJP, increasing centralization, declining intraparty democracy, and the cutting-to-size of regional leaders who were not subserviently loyal to national the leader all took their toll,” he writes.

The election results don’t necessarily signal the start of Modi’s political decline. He has the capacity to rehabilitate himself: Modi is a leader who took office in 2014 as a global pariah (due to his alleged links to the deadly Gujarat riots in 2002) and went on to strengthen ties with governments around the world, becoming one of India’s most popular leaders in decades.

But Modi will soon face one of his biggest tests, forming a coalition and relying on partners for the first time. This will help determine his political trajectory. Less political space, coupled with a smaller mandate, will make it difficult for Modi to implement his domestic agenda, especially any controversial Hindu-nationalist goals. Pursuing economic reforms, a politically risky tack that he failed to achieve with a much larger mandate, will be a tall order.

Modi is more likely to succeed with his domestic policy goals if his politics become more conciliatory. His foreign policy should be easy enough to pursue, as his main goals—such as strengthening India’s power abroad—are unlikely to generate resistance from coalition partners. He won’t help his cause if he reacts to the pressures of coalition rule by increasing crackdowns on the opposition.

Furthermore, Modi must also deal with a revitalized opposition alliance. India’s opposition is fractious, burdened with legal challenges, and devoid of a strong leader to counter Modi. Yet it managed to score its biggest political achievement in a decade. If it can maintain this momentum from the benches, Modi’s third term could be more difficult than his first two. It could even be his last.

The odds are that Modi and the BJP—still massively popular—will recover. But given the challenges of leading a coalition government and facing a stronger opposition, Modi will more frequently find himself on the back foot.

 

 

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