By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Tehran Has Taken Its Fight Against The West To Europe

Iran is involved in a major war on the European continent for the first time. Iranian military advisors, most likely members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are on the ground in occupied Ukraine—and possibly Belarus—to help Russia rain down deadly Iranian kamikaze drones on Ukrainian cities and civilian infrastructure. According to an Israeli news report citing a Ukrainian official, 10 Iranians have already been killed in a Ukrainian attack on Russian positions. Tehran is now preparing to up the ante by providing Russia with thousands of additional drones and, for the first time, two types of Iranian-made ballistic missiles to supplement Russia’s dwindling stocks.

Tehran’s military support is already making its deadly mark on the war, but the geopolitical consequences extend much further. By escalating its support for Russia’s imperial attempt to subjugate Ukraine, Iran hopes to advance its imperial project in the Middle East. Tehran will likely seek to leverage the deepening Russo-Iranian partnership into arms deals from Moscow while using lessons learned from the Ukrainian battlefield to perfect Iranian drone and missile capabilities. At the same time, the regime in Iran likely hopes that fueling the crisis in Ukraine will further distract the West from confronting Iran’s pursuit of hegemony in the Middle East. With any luck, however, Tehran’s foray into European power politics could help nudge Washington and its Western allies toward a more robust policy to counter Iran.                                           

Russia has found a willing supporter to redress battlefield weaknesses hampering its eight-month war against Ukraine. Tehran, which has poured considerable resources and effort into its drone and missile programs since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, has reportedly supplied Moscow with various types of drones. They include the Shahed-136, a loitering munition that Moscow has rebranded as the Geran-2, designed to careen into its target kamikaze-style. In addition to helping Russian forces take out stationary targets near the front lines, the munition has enabled Russia to conduct numerous strikes in cities across Ukraine in recent weeks while conserving its dwindling missile stock.

The Shahed-136 has helped Russia damage around 40 percent of Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, affecting half the country’s nonnuclear power generation capacity, a Ukrainian lawmaker said this week. Massive blackouts and energy rationing have ensued. With winter approaching, Moscow likely hopes this campaign of terror will erode Ukraine’s will to fight.

This may be just the beginning. On Tuesday, October 11, the Ukrainian intelligence services, quoted by the publication Ukrayinska Pravda, announced that 32 Shahed-136 (which means "witness" in Persian) drones had been deployed in Belarus the day before and that eights others were due to be delivered by October 14.

                                                                       

A Cheap Weapon

The Shahed-136 is manufactured by the Iran Aircraft Manufacturing Industrial Company or HESA. It looks like a delta wing measuring 3.5 meters long with a 2.5-meter wingspan and weighing about 200 kilos. Its nose contains an explosive charge and the optics necessary for a precision attack. Fired in salvos, the drones can be launched from a truck and fly at over 185 kilometers per hour. The Russian army has renamed the aircraft Geran-2 (Geranium-2).

The Russians began using these drones to try and stop the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, hitting Ukrainian artillery positions and tanks, reported the Wall Street Journal. They were then used in the attack that destroyed an administrative building in Odesa on September 25. In early October, they targeted Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv Oblast, and one of them was reportedly shot down.

In a report on September 14, the British Ministry of Defence mentioned the destruction of a Shahed-136 by the Ukrainians near Kupiansk. British services describe the device as a "kamikaze" drone with a range of 2,500 kilometers.

On the Current Time channel, Ukrainian military officials mention a machine equipped with "a two-stroke engine like a boat, a lawnmower or a moped" that can be heard from far away. "These machines are primitive," said Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the air force command. According to the Ukrainians, it is a fairly cheap weapon because of its simplicity: They fly straight to their target, they do not have expensive optics, and it is easy to program the target coordinates and launch them.

"The enemy is trying to save its different types of missiles. Shahed drones are far cheaper, and the enemy can launch several at a time," explained Sergey Bratchuk, an Odesa regional military administration representative.

 

 

                                                                       An Announced Arrival

The use of these drones comes as no surprise. The Biden administration announced their arrival. In July, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan explained that Iran would be training the Russians to use some of its aircraft. According to CNN and NPR, a Russian delegation visited the Kachan airfield south of Tehran in June and July to witness a display of Shahed-191 and Shahed-129 drones.

Then in late August, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had shipped them to Russia. Four flights were reportedly made, each carrying about 100 drones of at least two types: kamikaze and surveillance and electronic warfare drones.

The drones delivered to Russia are the same as those used by the Houthis rebels in Yemen against oil installations in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran is also suspected of using these drones against an Israeli oil tanker in Oman in 2021 and in Iraqi Kurdistan against Iranian Kurdish opposition parties.

After these drone strikes in the Port of Odesa, Ukraine decided to "significantly scale back" Iran's diplomatic presence in the country in retaliation for Tehran's supply of weapons to Russia.

The drones delivered to Russia are the same as those used by the Houthis rebels in Yemen against oil installations in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Iran is also suspected of using these drones against an Israeli oil tanker in Oman in 2021 and in Iraqi Kurdistan against Iranian Kurdish opposition parties.

After these drone strikes in the Port of Odesa, Ukraine decided to "significantly scale back" Iran's diplomatic presence in the country, in retaliation for Tehran's supply of weapons to Russia.

After initial tests, the Washington Post wrote that the Russians were not entirely satisfied with the Iranian drones, but this has not stopped them from using them.

 

 

For updates click hompage here