By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

US Strikes on Iran

The world awaited Iran’s response on June 22 after President Donald Trump said the US had “obliterated” Tehran’s most sensitive nuclear sites, joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.

With the damage visible from space after 13,600kg US bunker-buster bombs crashed into the mountain above Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, Tehran vowed to defend itself at all costs.

It fired another volley of missiles at Israel that wounded scores of people and flattened buildings in Tel Aviv.

But perhaps to avert all-out war with the US superpower, it had yet to follow through on its main threats of retaliation against the United States itself – either by targeting US bases or trying to choke off global oil supplies.

Speaking in Istanbul, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would consider all possible responses. There would be no return to diplomacy until it had retaliated, he said.

“The US showed they have no respect for international law. They only understand the language of threat and force,” he said.

Trump, announcing the strikes in a televised address, called them “a spectacular military success”.

“Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier,” he said.

Still, his administration stressed that no order had been given for any wider war to overthrow the hardline Shi’ite Muslim clerical establishment that has ruled Iran since 1979.

“The President authorized a precision operation to neutralize the threats to our national interests posed by the Iranian nuclear program.”

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said Washington was not at war with Iran but with its nuclear program, adding this had been pushed back for a very long time owing to the US intervention.

In a step towards what is widely seen as Iran’s most effective threat to hurt the West, its Parliament approved a move to close the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf where nearly a quarter of the oil shipped around the world passes through narrow waters that Iran controls.

Iran’s Press TV said closing the strait would require approval from the Supreme National Security Council, a body led by an appointee of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Attempting to choke off Gulf oil by closing the strait could send global oil prices skyrocketing, derail the world economy, and invite almost certain conflict with the US Navy’s massive Fifth Fleet, based in the Gulf and tasked with keeping it open.

 

Bunker busters

Israel, which started the war with a surprise attack on Iran on June 13, has long said its aim was to destroy Iran’s nuclear programme.

But only the US possesses the massive 13,600kg bombs – and the huge batwing B-2 bombers that drop them – designed to destroy targets like Iran’s most sensitive uranium enrichment plant at Fordow, built beneath a mountain.

At least 18 structures, either destroyed or partially destroyed, can be seen in the images provided by Maxar Technologies of the Isfahan facility in central Iran.

This satellite image shows the nuclear technology center in Isfahan on June 22.

The site, which, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, is “suspected of being the center” of Iran’s nuclear program, was visibly blackened by the degree of rubble the strikes left in their wake.

At a Pentagon news conference Sunday, Gen. Dan Caine, the US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said a US submarine launched more than a dozen low-flying Tomahawk cruise missiles “against key surface infrastructure targets” at the facility.

Meanwhile, at Iran’s Natanz enrichment site, two new craters were visible, likely caused by massive “bunker buster” bombs, which are designed to penetrate deep underground targets before detonating. The craters - one approximately 5.5 meters in diameter and the other approximately 3.2 meters, according to analysis by Maxar - sit directly above parts of the complex located underground.

A satellite image shows two craters above underground halls at the nuclear facility in Natanz on June 22. 

The site’s underground structures house centrifuges, which are used for turning uranium into nuclear fuel.

A US official confirmed US forces had dropped two bunker-busting bombs on Natanz, while US Navy submarines fired Tomahawk cruise missiles. The extent of the underground damage at the site is unclear at this time.

The imagery of the destruction at the two sites comes after a CNN analysis of satellite imagery found US airstrikes on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility had left behind at least six large craters, also pointing to the use of bunker-busting bombs.

This satellite image shows Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility on June 22.

 

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz?

Since the recent US strikes, there are whispers from inside Iran that the country will close the strategic Hormuz Strait - although nothing is concrete yet. The strait is located in the Gulf between Oman and Iran, and is considered the world's most vital oil transit choke point. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, when asked today if the country will close the strait, said there are "various options" on the table. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has speedboats that could be used to blockade the strait. Its closure could lead to significant delays in the supply of oil needed by global markets, with a rise in oil prices. Around a fifth of the planet's crude oil goes through the strait, which is only 40km wide at its narrowest point. Several countries could be impacted, including the Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait, but the impact is not limited to them. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are among the top importers of crude oil that pass it along. Beijing is highly unlikely to welcome any rise in oil prices or disruptions to shipping routes. And of course, by closing one of its major export routes, Iran itself would lose out. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio today said it would be “economic suicide”.

Iran has responded furiously to the overnight US airstrikes on three of its nuclear sites, vowing what it calls "everlasting consequences".

But beyond the words, there will be feverish discussions taking place at the highest level inside Iran's security and intelligence establishment.

Should they escalate the conflict through retaliation against US interests, or, as US President Donald Trump has called on them to do, negotiate - which in practice means giving up all nuclear enrichment inside Iran?

This internal debate will be taking place at a time when many senior Iranian commanders will be looking over their shoulders, wondering if they are about to be the next target of an Israeli precision airstrike or whether someone in the room has already betrayed them to Mossad, Israel's overseas spy agency.

Broadly speaking, there are three different strategic courses of action now open to Iran: to retaliate now, later, or never.

None of them are risk-free, and uppermost in the minds of those taking the decisions will be the survival of the Islamic Republic regime.

 

Synopsis

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian says the US "must receive a response for their aggression", after it bombed three Iranian nuclear sites US President Donald Trump says the strikes took "the 'bomb' right out of their hands" The UN's nuclear watchdog says it can't asses the damage at the Fordo underground site, while Iran's foreign minister says its nuclear knowledge "can't be destroyed by bombing" Earlier, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were not about regime change - but about stopping Iran getting a nuclear weapon BBC Verify has looked at satellite pictures of the damage at Isfahan and Natanz, and also Fordo.

Escalating conflict: The strikes thrust the US into the Israel-Iran conflict, which has seen the two sides trade attacks for over a week. Vice President JD Vance said the US is “not at war with Iran,” insisting Trump is focused only on Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian says the US must receive a response for its aggression, after it bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.

 

 

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