By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

But now there are new problems

A year ago, the war that President Bashar al-Assad seemed to have won was turned upside down

Going back further in the past, the profound effects of the British Empire’s actions in the Arab World during the First World War can be seen echoing throughout the history of the 20th century  contributed to the making of what became the Syria of Assad. Several instances like the machinations of Sharif Hussein Ibn Ali 1853-1931 and the debates surrounding the Sykes–Picot agreement have shaped the Middle East.

This was followed by rumors that the Assads could be overthrown.

Then around a year ago, the war that President Bashar al-Assad seemed to have won was turned upside down. A rebel force had broken out of Idlib, a Syrian province on the border with Turkey, and was storming towards Damascus. It was led by a man known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, and his militia group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

Jolani was a nom-de-guerre, reflecting his family's roots in the Golan Heights, Syria's southern highlands, annexed by Israel after it was occupied in 1967. His real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa.

One year later, he is interim president, and Bashar al-Assad is in a gilded exile in Russia

Soon the café hosts talked again and music plays. Prominent figures who once fled the country have returned too, many are greeted by a band playing traditional songs with a giant drum.

However, today, December 11, 2025, Syria is still in ruins. But for all the new Syria's problems, it feels much lighter without the crushing, cruel weight of the Assads.

Sharaa has found the going easier abroad than at home. He has won the argument with Saudi Arabia and the West that he is Syria's best chance of a stable future.

In May, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia arranged a brief meeting between Sharaa and US President Donald Trump. Afterwards, Trump called him a "young attractive tough guy".

At home, Syrians know his weaknesses and the problems Syria faces better than foreigners. Sharaa's writ does not run in the north-east, where the Kurds are in control, or parts of the south where Syrian Druze, another minority sect, want a separate state backed by their Israeli allies.

On the coast Alawites – Assad's sect – fear a repeat of the massacres they suffered in March.

A year ago, the new masters of Damascus, like most of the armed rebels in Syria, were Sunni Islamists. Sharaa, their leader, had a long history fighting for al-Qaeda in Iraq, where he had been imprisoned by the Americans, and then was a senior commander with the group that became Islamic State.

Later, as he built his power base in Syria, he broke with and fought both IS and al-Qaeda.

People who had travelled to Idlib to see him said that he had developed a much more pragmatic set of beliefs, better suited to governing Syria, with its spectrum of religious sects. Sunnis are the majority. As well as Kurds and Druze, there are Christians, many of whom find it hard to forget Sharaa's jihadist past.

Image of a man who outgrew his jihadist roots

In the first week of December last year, it was hard to believe that the HTS offensive was moving so fast. It took them three days to capture Aleppo, Syria's northern powerhouse.

Compare that with the tortured years between 2012 and 2016, when the regime's army and rebel militias had fought for control of the city: that had ended in victory for Assad after Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, deployed his air force and artillery to add decisive firepower to the regime's ruthless tactics.

But by the end of 2024, across the country, government troops had melted away. Both reluctant conscripts and regime loyalists were no longer prepared to fight and die for a corrupt and cruel regime that repaid them with poverty and oppression.

In the first week of December last year, it was hard to believe that the HTS offensive was moving so fast. It took them three days to capture Aleppo, Syria's northern powerhouse.

Compare that with the tortured years between 2012 and 2016, when the regime's army and rebel militias had fought for control of the city: that had ended in victory for Assad after Russia's president Vladimir Putin deployed his air force and artillery to add decisive firepower to the regime's ruthless tactics.

But by the end of 2024, across the country, government troops had melted away. Both reluctant conscripts and regime loyalists were no longer prepared to fight and die for a corrupt and cruel regime that repaid them with poverty and oppression.

One year ago - celebrations marking the dawn of a new era for Syria

 

A weakened IS in Syria

Sharaa took power amid huge uncertainty about what he might do, and what might be done to him by his enemies. Among them were dark fears that jihadist extremists of the Islamic State, still existing in sleeper cells, could try to kill him, or cause chaos with mass casualty attacks in Damascus.

Jihadists rage on social media about Sharaa's charm offensive in the west. After he agreed to join the US-led coalition against Islamic State, prominent voices online branded him an apostate, a Muslim who had turned on his own religion. Extremists could take that as a license to kill.

In a 7 November 2025 press briefing note, the Spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Thameen Al-Keetan, expressed concern over ongoing reports of dozens of abductions and enforced disappearances, in addition to the more than 100,000 people who went missing under the former government. Al-Keetan stressed that the fate and whereabouts of those who have gone missing, both before and after the fall of the former government, must be urgently clarified.

The reality is that IS in Syria is weak. Its attacks this year have been mostly against Kurdish-led forces in the north-east.

That has changed in the last few weeks, leading up to the anniversary of the fall of the Assad regime.

As security forces have raided IS cells, the jihadists have killed three soldiers and two former Assad operatives in cities controlled by the government. IS social media channels continue to tell Syrian Sunnis that Sharaa has betrayed them.

Without producing any proof, they have posted claims that he has been an agent of the US and UK, working to undermine the jihadist project.

 

Winning over Trump and the West

Sharaa's overtures to the west have been remarkably successful.

Within two weeks of taking power in Syria, he received a delegation of senior American diplomats. Immediately, the Americans scrapped the $10 million bounty they had put on his arrest.

Since then, sanctions imposed on Assad's Syria have been steadily reduced. The most swingeing, the Caesar Act, has been suspended and could be repealed by the US Congress in the new year.

A major milestone came in November when Sharaa became the first Syrian president to visit the White House.

Trump sprayed Sharaa with cologne, before presenting him with his own supply to take home

Trump's welcome in the Oval Office was relaxed. He sprayed Sharaa with Trump-branded cologne, before presenting him with his own supply to take home for his wife, jokingly asking him how many he has. "One," Sharaa answered, as he blinked away clouds of fragrance.

Away from the larking around for the cameras, Saudi Arabia as well as western governments see Sharaa as the best bet – the only one, to stabilize a country that sits at the heart of the Middle East.

If Syria slipped back into civil war, there would be zero chance of reducing the violent turbulence in the region.

One senior western diplomat told me that the conditions for civil war still exist. That is because of the lasting scars of half a century of dictatorship and 14 years of a war that started as an uprising against the Assads' oppressive rule and turned into an increasingly sectarian fight.

Many western governments see Sharaa as the best bet to stabilise Syria. His minister for foreign affairs, Assad al-Shaibani is front right.

Sharaa is a Sunni Muslim, Syria's largest religious group. His government does not control the whole country. In the last year he has not been able to persuade, or force, Kurds in the north-east and Druze in the south to accept the authority of Damascus. On the coast, the Alawite community is nervous and restive.

The Alawites are a sect that originated in Shia Islam, with their heartland on Syria's Mediterranean coast. The Assads are Alawites.

The founder of the regime, Bashar's father Hafez al-Assad, built his power on the Alawite minority, around 10% of the population. Just the sound of the Alawite accent, especially coming from a man in uniform – or worse, a leather-jacketed operative from one of the regime's intelligence agencies, used to make other Syrians nervous.

Syria will not recover if sectarian killing continues. Stopping more serious outbreaks of violence in the next 12 months is the government's most serious challenge.

 

The slow pace of justice

Just before the anniversary of Assad's fall, the UN human rights office (OHCHR) expressed serious concern about the slow pace of justice. A spokesman said, "While the interim authorities have taken encouraging steps towards addressing past violations, these steps are only the beginning of what needs to be done."

Some Syrians have taken matters into their own hands, along, at times, with government forces. The OHCHR said that hundreds have been killed over the past year "by the security forces and affiliated groups, elements associated with the former government, local armed groups and unidentified armed individuals".

They added: "Other reported violations and abuses include sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, destruction of homes, forced evictions, and restrictions on freedoms of expression and peaceful assembly."

Alawite, Druze, Christian and Bedouin communities were mainly affected by the violence, the OHCHR said, which has been fed by rising hate speech both on- and offline.

A graduation ceremony for general security personnel November 2025

A big risk for 2026 is a repeat of last March's sectarian violence in Alawite areas.

In the security vacuum that followed the fall of the Assad regime, the new government attempted to stamp its authority on the Syrian coast with a series of arrests. An investigation by OCHCR found that "pro-former government fighters responded by capturing, killing, and injuring hundreds of interim government forces".

Damascus responded harshly and lost control of militant armed factions that carried a systematic series of deadly attacks on Alawites.

The UN found that some 1,400 people, predominantly civilians, were reported killed in the ensuing massacres. The vast majority were adult men, but victims included approximately 100 women, the elderly and the disabled, as well as children.

The Sharaa government cooperated with the UN investigation. Some of its forces managed to rescue Alawites and it has put some of the ringleaders of the massacres on trial.

The UN found that some 1,400 people, predominantly civilians, were reported killed during sectarian violence in Alawite areas in March

The UN Syria Commission of Inquiry confirmed it had found no evidence that the authorities had ordered the attacks. But the concern then and for the future was that the Damascus government could not control armed Sunni groups that had supposedly joined its security forces.

In July, in the southern province of Suweida, serious violence between Druze and Bedouin communities shook the Sharaa administration to its roots. The Druze religion developed out of Islam around a thousand years ago, and its followers, who some Muslims believe are heretics, amount to around 3% of Syria's population.

Several bouts of sectarian violence, including the killing of hundreds of members of the Alawite minority in March, have fueled concerns over the status of minorities in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime.

A UN inquiry found no evidence that the authorities had ordered the attacks in March. But the concern was that the Damascus government could not control armed Sunni groups

When government forces entered Suweida, supposedly to restore order, they ended up fighting Druze militias. Israel, which has its own Druze community that is fiercely loyal to the Jewish state, intervened. Its airstrikes included the near destruction of the Ministry of Defense in Damascus.

It took a rapid American intervention to force a ceasefire that stopped a spiral down into much worse violence. Tens of thousands of people were driven from their homes and remain displaced.

 

The Israel question

It is still not clear whether Sharaa and his interim government are strong enough to survive another crisis as serious as that. Israel remains a looming and dangerous presence to the Syrians.

After the fall of Assad, the Israelis launched a series of major air strikes to destroy what was left of the old regime's military capacity. The IDF advanced out of the occupied Golan Heights to take control of more Syrian territory, which it still holds.

The Israelis were taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to weaken a country it saw as hostile, destroying weapons it said might be turned in its direction.

Attempts by the US to broker a security agreement between Israel and Syria have stalled in the last two months or so.

Syria wants to return to an agreement originally negotiated by Henry Kissinger when he was the US Secretary of State in 1974. Netanyahu wants Israel to stay in the land it seized and has demanded that Syria demilitarize a large area south of Damascus.

In the last month, Israel has intensified its ground incursions into Syria. Syria Weekly, which collects data on violence, calculates that there were more than twice as many as the monthly average for the rest of the year.

We visited the border village of Beit Jinn, which was raided by IDF troops on 28 November. The IDF said they were arresting Sunni militants who were planning attacks.

Local men fought back, wounding six Israelis as the raiding party was forced into a hurried retreat, abandoning a military vehicle that they later destroyed with an airstrike. The Israelis killed at least 13 local people and wounded dozens, state media reported.

It was a sign of how hard it will be to broker a security deal between Syria and Israel. The Damascus government called it a war crime. Calls for retaliation intensified.

The border village of Beit Jinn was raided by IDF troops on 28 November 2025

In Washington, Trump was clearly worried by the raid. He posted on his Truth Social platform that he was "very satisfied" with Sharaa's efforts at stabilizing Syria.

He warned that it was "very important that Israel maintain a strong and true dialogue with Syria, and that nothing takes place that will interfere with Syria's evolution into a prosperous state".

 

'We go to sleep and wake up afraid.'

A year after the end of Assad's rule, Syria's new rulers have scored some important achievements.

They are still in power, which was not guaranteed when they took Damascus. President Trump has become Sharaa's most important backer. Sanctions are being lifted. The economy is showing signs of life and business deals are being done, including modernising oil and gas installations and privatising the airports in Damascus and Aleppo.

But deals that are in the pipeline have not yet changed the lives of most Syrians. The government has no rebuilding fund. Reconstruction is up to individuals. Sectarian tensions are unresolved and could ignite again. The US-mediated dialogue with Israel has stalled.

Benjamin Netanyahu insists that Damascus might demilitarise a large area of southern Syria and shows no signs of ordering the IDF to pull back. Both points amount to a major violation of Syrian sovereignty. The Beit Jinn raid makes it harder for Damascus to offer concessions.

Government in Damascus is centered on Sharaa himself, assisted by the foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani and a few trusted associates. No serious attempt seems to be happening to create an accountable framework of government.

Syria without the Assad family is a better place. But Umm Mohammad summed up the feelings of far too many Syrians.

"The future is difficult. We have nothing, not even schools. Our children are living in hell here. There is no safety for them. How will we live?

"We want safety. We go to sleep and wake up afraid."

 

 

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