By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

How geopolitics reshaped Syria's trajectory

Believing the war was won, President Assad shifted focus away from reconciliation and addressing the needs of his people. Instead, his loyalists collaborated with warlords in exploiting the masses, worsening the already dire economic situation. This estranged him from his grassroots supporters. He dissolved supportive militias, reduced the presence of Iranian and Hezbollah forces, and leaned on Arab nations for reintegration into the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). Russia was not happy with his stubborn behavior and refusal to meet president Erdogan of Turkey. When militant groups advanced into Aleppo, fully armed and equipped with drones, supported by Turkish and U.S. surveillance and GPS, many Syrian army officers were missing and taken away by Russian forces, lower rank  officers abandoned their positions and instructed their soldiers to lay down their weapons, return home, and discard their military uniforms, further accelerating the regime's collapse.

President Erdogan was equally caught off guard by the rapid decline of the Syrian regime. He fooled the Russian by speaking of his strategy which was to enable militant groups to gain access to Aleppo, aiming to pressure President Assad and bring him to the negotiation table on Turkish term of dividing Syria. However, the situation took an unexpected turn. Russian forces withdrew from their positions, allowing militants to advance toward Aleppo, while Erdogan's allies—Israel and the USA—pursued different plan. They supported and funded mercenaries to push toward the capital Damascus. Russia denied President Assad any assistance in the absence of ground troops, reading the situation carefully and did not gives clearance to Tehran to send troops by air since US threatened Iraq government not to allow passage of troops to support According to reliable sources Assad removed at a gun point and he is under house arrest in Russia. The Russian security guards at the President`s Palace did not allow President Assad to address his army or his own people and instead forcefully removed him from the palace, at a gun point, without any prior notice even his son Hafiz was not aware nor his brother Maher, not to speak of even his own security guards. He was transferred to Khmeimim Russian air base in Latakia city before deporting him to Moscow with his son who joined him later and close aids and put him allegedly under house arrest.

 

Arab and Islamic Spring - Turkey's Role

At the time of the onset of the Arab Spring in Tunisia in 2011, thousands of miles away, Turkey was already preparing for a significant geopolitical shift. Months before the waves of regime changes reached Damascus, Turkish authorities were busy building tent camps near the Syrian border. Ostensibly, these camps were designed to shelter refugees fleeing conflict, but in retrospect, they signaled a calculated strategy to reshape the Syrian regime. The goal appeared to be the toppling of the Syrian government and its replacement with a so-called "moderate Islamic" administration—moderate in public rhetoric but harboring covert, extremist tendencies.

Turkey's ambitions in Syria were deeply rooted in both ideology and regional strategy. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, envisioned a Neo-Ottoman influence extending across the Levant. By aligning with Islamist groups and capitalizing on the chaos of the Arab Spring, Ankara sought to position itself as a central player in the transformation of the Middle East.

 

The Syrian Conflict: A Proxy for Regional Ambitions

Fourteen years later, Syria stands as a testament to the devastating consequences of foreign interference and regional power struggles. Factories in Turkey reportedly produced over half a million new Syrian flags, symbolizing the envisioned state under Turkish influence. In major Syrian cities like Damascus and Aleppo, the Turkish flag was raised, signaling a stark shift in sovereignty and heralding a new era under Erdogan's leadership.

This transformation was not achieved through conventional diplomacy or soft power alone. It involved a complex web of alliances with militant factions, including extremist groups. The current Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, played a pivotal role in this strategy. A close confidant of Erdogan and a former head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Fidan became a central figure in Turkey's clandestine operations in Syria.

 

From Afghanistan to Syria: Parallels of Proxy Wars

The patterns of foreign intervention in Syria mirror those in Afghanistan, where decades of conflict transformed the nation into a proxy battleground for competing global and regional powers. In Afghanistan, the Soviet invasion of 1979 sparked a U.S.-backed resistance movement that ultimately gave rise to the Taliban. Similarly, the Syrian war saw external powers funding and arming militant groups, some of which evolved into extremist factions like ISIS and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). There was a tendency to replicate the Taliban's approach in Syria, promoting extremism and fundamentalism under a reinterpreted concept of Islam, which was often imposed through force.

Both conflicts reveal a troubling trend: external powers exploiting domestic instability to advance their geopolitical ambitions. In Afghanistan, the U.S. and its allies justified prolonged military intervention under the pretext of combating terrorism and promoting democracy. In Syria, fostering regime change served as a cover for foreign agendas.

 

The Jolani Connection and the Symbolism of Qasioun

One particularly symbolic moment encapsulates Turkey's ascendancy in Syria: Hakan Fidan, alongside Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, was reportedly seen sipping tea on Mount Qasioun, overlooking Damascus. This imagery carries profound significance. Mount Qasioun, a historic vantage point over the Syrian capital, is not just a physical location but a symbolic marker of sovereignty. By asserting their presence there, Turkey and its allies sent a clear message about their intentions to reshape Syria's political landscape.

This act also drew a direct connection to the Umayyad Dynasty, which had its capital in Damascus. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman vision is steeped in such historical references, positioning Turkey as the inheritor of Islamic leadership and regional dominance. The imagery of Qasioun was thus a calculated move to evoke the glory of past empires while asserting contemporary influence.

 

The Cost of Ambition

However, this ambitious project has come at a staggering cost. Syria has been devastated by years of war, with hundreds of thousands killed and millions displaced. The country's infrastructure lies in ruins, and the social fabric has been torn apart. Syria has, in many ways, been handed over to "terrorist-designated groups", who act as proxies for vested-interest nations. These groups serve the geopolitical agendas of those seeking military intervention under the guise of protecting minorities.

This mirrors similar interventions in former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, where the principle of "Responsibility to Protect" (R2P) was invoked. In Syria, it is likely that calls for protection could escalate if sectarian violence and the targeting of minorities by mercenaries increase. However, such rhetoric often serves as a pretext for advancing external powers' interests. Otherwise, there is no explanation for turning "New Syria" into a pilgrimage site for foreign dignitaries to pay respect to leadership groups considered terrorists under United Nations Security Council Resolutions.

 

The Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement

The toll on civilians in both Afghanistan and Syria is staggering. Millions of people have been displaced internally and externally, creating one of the largest refugee crises in modern history. The destruction of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods, and erosion of cultural heritage have left indelible scars on both nations.

Ankara now faces growing concerns about the long-term fallout of the Syrian conflict, particularly as the USA and Israel collaborated to topple the Syrian regime and support the establishment of an independent Kurdish enclave in Syria. This development poses significant threats to Turkey's security and sovereignty, with potentially dangerous consequences for the region when the conflict between Tel Aviv escalate on who will grasp more territories of Syria. The Kurdish dreams of establishing an independent enclave in Syria will not materialize for now in spite of the international pressure on Turkey not to let the Syrian forces take on them and instead reconcile and gives the Kurds more autonomy. Ankara is adamant and will not allow this to happen but will taste its own poison in years to come.

 

Conclusion

The trends in the Middle East—such as military and intelligence cooperation, realignment of alliances, and sectarian rivalries—support the claim that Israel, Turkey, and Azerbaijan may align to counter Iran. This collaboration aligns with their shared interests and the broader strategy of external powers to weaken Iran's influence.

From Afghanistan to "Suyriastan," the patterns of intervention, proxy wars, and ideological ambitions reveal a troubling trend. The Arab Spring's promise of democratic transformation was quickly overshadowed by competing interests. Turkey's Neo-Ottoman vision has left a profound imprint on Syria's trajectory, raising questions about sovereignty and stability in the Middle East. There is a strong consensus among Arab capitals not to allow an Islamic State in Syria. Egypt will be the next target for Israel and US to seize Suez Canal and Jordan to follow as an alternative homeland for Palestinians who will be expelled from Gaza and West Bank as well.

A significant aim of deploying large numbers of trained and brainwashed Islamists was to target and kill minorities in Syria, as well as to infiltrate communities of moderate Islamic faith followers whose beliefs did not align with their medieval ideologies. Their ultimate goal is to establish an Islamic state of their own understanding of Islam, in Syria, as a base to further their broader agenda, stretching from Mauritania in West Africa to the northwestern region of Xinjiang in China to cause inter fighting, chaos and instabilities rather than serving the cause.

The legacies of Afghanistan and Syria serve as cautionary tales about the dangers of foreign interference and the exploitation of vulnerable nations. As the dust settles on over a decade of conflict, the enduring impact on the lives of millions will remain a stark reminder of the human cost of geopolitical ambition.

 

 

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