By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

China is holding military exercises around Taiwan, in what it calls a "stern warning" against those seeking "independence" from the self-ruled island. The important this is the fact that the US has vowed to come to the defense of Taiwan if attacked by China.

Why the Taiwan issue is so complex and can China simple take it?

China’s gray-zone activities in the Taiwan Strait should not be viewed as a mere prelude to an amphibious invasion. Rather, Beijing’s persistent use of similar tactics in nearby waters suggests such actions are the primary methods in a patient, long-term strategy aimed at subjugating Taiwan without resorting to an invasion.

The drills are seen as a response to a speech by Taiwanese President William Lai last week, in which he vowed to resist "annexation" by Beijing.

Since 2022 the tempo of Chinese operations has remained high, with daily incursions across the median line going up and down depending on what signals China wants to send – to its people, to Taiwan, and to Taiwan’s allies. And since Lai Ching-Te’s election in January, the tempo of operations has increased again – quite dramatically.

In May 2024, after President Lai’s inauguration, Also large-scale drills were announced – called Joint Sword 2024A – they were described by China as its largest so far, combined operations of air and sea and missile forces, which “surrounded” Taiwan from all sides – simulating a blockade.

Today we are seeing the long-expected Joint Sword 2024B – which China is describing as again surrounding Taiwan with combined operations practicing to fight in "all weather conditions". It is very good weather in and around Taiwan this week, so that claim seems more rhetorical than real.

Among the flood of commentaries and remarks from the Chinese side, today is an analysis of something different about the drills this time: the starting hour.

The drills started before dawn today, Beijing says. And the reason, according to one Chinese military expert, is to show more teeth.

In a video released by CCTV-affiliated social media account Yuyuan Tantian, Fu Zhengnan of the PLA Academy of Military Science said a new notable feature of today's drills is its focus on simulating "all-weather" conditions, which makes the "atmosphere of real combat even stronger".

The operations were launched before dawn and during nighttime, and the forces were ready to shift from training to combat "at any moment", he said.

Since 2022 the tempo of Chinese operations has remained high, with daily incursions across the median line going up and down depending on what signals China wants to send – to its people, to Taiwan, and to Taiwan’s allies. And since Lai Ching-Te’s election in January, the tempo of operations has increased again – quite dramatically.

In May 2024, after President Lai’s inauguration, further large-scale drills were announced – Joint Sword 2024A – they were described by China as its largest so far, combined operations of air and sea and missile forces, which “surrounded” Taiwan from all sides – simulating a blockade.

Today we are seeing the long-expected Joint Sword 2024B – which China is describing as again surrounding Taiwan with combined operations practicing to fight in "all weather conditions". It is very good weather in and around Taiwan this week, so that claim seems more rhetorical than real.

The Taiwanese defense ministry has released footage of its military responding to the Chinese drills.

It shows air defense launchers, military vehicles, and a naval vessel being maneuvered into position.

Earlier, the ministry said the Taiwanese military would monitor Chinese threats but avoid any escalation or direct clashes.

With today's exercise, China is sending a message to Taiwanese President William Lai that moves towards "Taiwan independence" are bound to meet a "dead end", an analyst told Chinese state media.

The drills aim to have a "more intense deterrent effect" on what China considers as "separatist forces", Professor Zhang Chi from China PLA National Defence University tells CCTV.

"The more the separatist forces dare to provoke, the further the PLA will advance. The closer the separatists align with external forces, the tighter the chain of Taiwan's blockade will become," he says.

China is also ramping up its production of drones, which it has used in exercises around Taiwan. China North Industries Group, or Norinco, recently unveiled a new kamikaze drone with a range of 124 miles and a cruising speed of 90 miles per hour.

Taiwan's Ministry of Defense has condemned what it describes as "irrational and provocative behavior" by China, adding it is ready to defend itself.

Taiwan's transport ministry says air traffic and port operations remain "normal" despite the military drills off the coast.

Taiwan's ally, the US, says it is monitoring the drills.

China is a springboard hear many tell it, the future of the United States’ security—and, indeed, the world’s—rides on Taiwan. A self-governing Taiwan anchors Japan’s defense and denies China a springboard from which it could threaten U.S. allies in the western Pacific. On the topic of Taiwan, contemporary analysts often invoke General Douglas MacArthur’s description of the island as “an unsinkable aircraft carrier” and “submarine tender.”

Beijing also mounted drills around Taiwan after Lai was sworn in as president earlier this year.

Taiwan's President William Lai has released a new statement saying the country's military and coast guard are "holding their positions" at sea and in the air amid ongoing Chinese military exercises.

He says the Chinese drills are "intended to disrupt regional peace and stability" and constitute an attempt to coerce China's regional neighbours by using force.

The statement goes on to say the government will protect Taiwan's democratic system and national security "in the face of external threats".

His office had earlier this morning said China should "refrain from military provocations".

The Chinese military says it launched this round of exercises in response to remarks made by Lai in a speech a few days ago, in which he vowed to resist any efforts to exert control over Taiwan.

"Scared" and "desensitized" - here's how people on the streets of Taipei are talking about China's fresh wave of military exercises around the self-ruled island.

 

These Military Drills By China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Are All About Intimidation.

Beijing has long vowed to "reunify" Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary, and to do so well before the centenary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in 2049.

Ideally, it would like this to happen without a shot being fired in anger and for Taipei to voluntarily submit to its rule - but Taiwan’s population has watched aghast at the recent suppression of democracy across the water in Hong Kong, and most people are even less keen than before on being ruled by a one-party Communist autocracy.

Beijing’s response is to remind Taiwan of its overwhelming strategic superiority. It has recently embarked on a massive military build-up in all areas: hypersonic missiles, aircraft carriers, nuclear warheads, and fifth-generation combat aircraft. The PLA Navy is now the largest in the world and still growing.

And yet a full-scale invasion of Taiwan would be something of a last resort for the CCP. It would be hugely costly, both in terms of manpower and economic damage to the global economy.

For Beijing, there is also the big unknown factor: just how far is the US prepared to go to defend Taiwan?

China has increased its military investment under Xi Jinping

So far, the maneuvers have fallen short of an invasion and stayed within a grey zone, which is military speak for tactics that fall between war and peace.

But Taiwan is now seen as a tinderbox in what has become a volatile US-China relationship - and analysts say grey zone tactics are part of Beijing's strategy to control Taipei without firing a single shot.

 

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