By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Ankara Cannot Afford to Remain Estranged

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s relationship with the United States has long been tumultuous, and the abrupt cancellation of his trip to the White House in May was no exception. The meeting would have been Erdogan’s first during the Biden administration—the long-delayed invitation a sign of the dysfunction between the once close allies. But then, after weeks of preparation, the Turkish president called it off, seemingly upset that the White House failed to formally announce the visit two weeks in advance.

By canceling the May meeting, Turkey missed an opportunity for a much-needed reset with the United States. During his administration, former President Donald Trump developed a good rapport with Erdogan, but his personalized approach paralyzed traditional diplomatic channels and institutional links between the two countries without delivering tangible results. U.S.-Turkish relations worsened when Ankara decided to purchase a Russian missile system in 2019, triggering U.S. sanctions. After Joe Biden became president, his administration kept Erdogan at arm’s length, hoping to signal its disapproval of Turkey’s democratic backsliding and growing entanglement with Russia. Following Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, Erdogan’s harsh criticism of U.S. support for Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip combined with his own public embrace of Hamas made it more difficult for the Biden administration to soften its approach to Turkey, especially as it prepared to launch Biden’s reelection campaign. But earlier this year, positive momentum in the relationship began to build when Ankara agreed to end its year-long obstruction of Sweden’s bid to join NATO, and Washington approved Turkey’s purchase of F-16 fighter jets in return. Erdogan’s visit to Washington was meant to be the final pillar of this three-part deal.

After the latest diplomatic breakdown, the Biden administration may be tempted to return to its earlier approach of keeping Erdogan at a distance. But at a time of global mayhem, neither Turkey nor the United States has the luxury to remain estranged. Turkey, with its Mediterranean and Black Sea coasts, sits in close proximity to both Gaza and Ukraine, putting it in a pivotal position between the two wars now occupying policymakers in Washington. It is a major regional military power and has a manufacturing economy. Turkey’s neighborhood includes regions of contestation between the United States on one side and China, Iran, or Russia on the other. For Ankara, stronger ties with Washington would help it balance an imperially minded Russia, boost economic growth, and keep its foothold in any future European security order.

Washington may be tempted to wait out Erdogan before trying to reconcile with Ankara, but Turkey’s strongman still has at least four more years in power. And in the meantime, Turkey sits in the middle of too many global flashpoints for the United States to delay a new dialogue. The next time the two leaders meet, Biden should take the opportunity to begin a conversation with Erdogan not just about the standard slate of bilateral issues but also about a broader reset. Ankara has much to offer the United States and its European allies in trade and defense partnerships, as well as in helping to contain the influence of China, Iran, and Russia, particularly in regions where Turkey is active but the United States’ reach is limited. There will be no return to the Cold War transatlantic relationship, but Erdogan’s Turkey has not yet crossed over to the Chinese-Russian orbit, and there is an opening for Turkey to tilt back toward the West if its partners make the advantages of cooperation clear. Weighing the costs of continued estrangement and the potential benefits of a reset, Biden should resolve to extend Turkey a hand.

 

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