By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Saudi Trip to Washington

Despite U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s display of bonhomie at the White House this week, a formal U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation deal remains out of reach, with the two sides at odds over Riyadh’s continued insistence that it be allowed to domestically enrich uranium.

Though the White House and U.S. Energy Department touted the signing of a “Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations” for a bilateral nuclear trade deal, the reality is that a formal  “123” agreement, which Congress is statutorily required to review, has not been formalized, and neither side has offered a timeline for when it might be reached. Named after a section in the 1954 Atomic Energy Act, 123 deals permit the export of U.S. atomic energy reactors, related equipment, and nuclear reactor fuel.

Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, has spoken repeatedly of his desire for a nuclear weapon, particularly if Iran should ever acquire one. Under his leadership, Riyadh has refused to accept the nonproliferation safeguards that consecutive U.S. administrations have insisted on as the price for winning the symbolically important prize of being able to import U.S. nuclear technologies and expertise.

Washington wants the Gulf monarchy to adhere to the so-called “gold standard,” whereby foreign governments pledge to never reprocess spent nuclear fuel or enrich uranium—the two pathways for acquiring the fissile material necessary for fueling a nuclear warhead.

“Everyone wants it to look like they met their deadline, and they didn’t … the Saudis had a negotiating team here for several weeks for this. If it were a standard agreement, it would be pretty cut and dry. It obviously is not a standard agreement that they are working on, and there are clearly differences,” said Henry Sokolski, the executive director of the Washington-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Sokolski, who closely follows 123 deals, added, “Most people see it [the joint declaration] as a commitment to completing the agreement, but another way of looking at it is that after trying, they couldn’t get an agreement yet—and they expected to have gotten one by now.”

In remarks made on Tuesday, 18 December, while sitting next to the crown prince at the Oval Office, Trump indicated that he was in no rush to finalize a nuclear trade deal.

“I can see that happening,” the U.S. president said in response to a reporter’s question about whether a formal civil nuclear deal would be reached soon, adding, “It’s not urgent.”

In a Wednesday interview with Fox News, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright—who signed the joint declaration with the Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud—ruled out allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium as part of a bilateral nuclear deal.

“No enrichment. In this agreement, this is just for construction of a power plant, American technology, American companies to build a very large nuclear power plant in Saudi Arabia,” the secretary said. “The ultimate deal that will be done is a 123 agreement that will go to the United States Congress for approval, but it is about civilian, civil use of nuclear power. It is not about enrichment. It is not about anything related to weapons. It’s just about generating electricity.”

Even as many U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have dialed back their personal animosity toward Mohammed bin Salman for what U.S. intelligence says was his role in ordering the 2018 assassination of Saudi dissident journalist and Virginia resident Jamal Khashoggi, the two senators who would lead congressional debate in their chamber of any eventual 123 agreement insisted that Riyadh accept the gold standard, which its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, did back in 2009.

U.S. President Donald Trump (center left) welcomes Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (center right) during an arrival ceremony at the White House in Washington on Nov. 18.

Though the White House and U.S. Energy Department touted the signing of a “Joint Declaration on the Completion of Negotiations” for a bilateral nuclear trade deal, the reality is that a formal  “123” agreement, which Congress is statutorily required to review, has not been formalized, and neither side has offered a timeline for when it might be reached. Named after a section in the 1954 Atomic Energy Act, 123 deals permit the export of U.S. atomic energy reactors, related equipment, and nuclear reactor fuel.

“Any potential civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia must include enhanced inspections through an Additional Protocol to Saudi Arabia’s safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is also critical that we hold Saudi Arabia to the ‘gold standard’ to ensure that Riyadh will not enrich uranium or reprocess plutonium,” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement. “Further, Saudi Arabia’s stated intention to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran makes demands requires extreme caution. We must not fuel a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.”

Shaheen’s Republican counterpart, Sen. James Risch, said that “there’s a good possibility” of a 123 deal being reached with Riyadh but that the gold standard “has to be” included in it.

Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who was one of the crown prince’s most vocal congressional critics following the Khashoggi assassination, sounded distinctly less vehement when discussing the possibility of a nuclear trade deal with the Gulf kingdom, which he called a “good ally.”

“That’s a different discussion for a different day about how to develop a peaceful nuclear capability in Saudi Arabia,” Graham said. “They have a lot of uranium, and I think that would be part of a bigger deal in terms of [nonproliferation].”

In theory, Congress can vote down any 123 agreement, but in practice, there is a very high bar for doing so because of the presidential veto, Sokolski said. Still, the congressional oversight process can be used to build pressure for concessions or tweaks to nuclear cooperation deals.

 

 

For updates click hompage here