By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Is This Going to Work?

As the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war continues to escalate, South Korea’s intelligence claimed that Russia has sent air defense missiles and other military technology to North Korea in return for the deployment of troops near the Ukrainian border. The shipments were now being seen as the latest indication of deepening ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korea's alliance with Russia reportedly got it oil and financial deals, according to reports from South Korea and a research group.

The US and South Korea have accused the nuclear-armed North of sending more than 10,000 soldiers to help Russia fight Ukraine.

Asked what Seoul believes the North has received for the deployment, South Korea's top security advisor Shin Won-sik said: "It has been identified that equipment and anti-aircraft missiles aimed at reinforcing Pyongyang's vulnerable air defense system have been delivered to North Korea."

Speaking to local broadcaster SBS, Shin added that North Korea has received "various forms of economic support."

Separately, non-profit research group Open Source Centre said Pyongyang obtained oil shipments from Russia.

It cited satellite images showing that more than a dozen North Korean oil tankers making a total of 43 trips to an oil terminal in Russia's ports over the last eight months, according to a BBC report. Pictures also showed empty tanks leaving almost full after arrival.

 

South Korea Considering Sending Weapons to Ukraine

Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a strategic partnership treaty in June, during the Kremlin chief's visit.

It commits both states to providing military assistance "without delay" in the case of an attack on the other and to cooperating internationally to oppose Western sanctions.

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui recently visited Moscow and said her country would "stand firmly by our Russian comrades until victory day."

She called Moscow's offensive against Ukraine a "sacred struggle" and said Pyongyang believed in Putin's "wise leadership".

North Korea's deployment of troops has led to a shift in tone from Seoul, which has resisted calls to send lethal weapons to Kyiv, but recently indicated it might change its longstanding policy.

 

The Threat of Desertion

However, Hyun-Seung Lee, a soldier in the Kim army in the early 2000s, says the troops in Russia will be looking to escape the battle in Ukraine "from the beginning". 

He believes the troops are not ready for the frontline and will be used as "human shields" by Russian soldiers.

Kim Jong-un has sent his Storm Corps, the country's equivalent of special forces, to fight for Vlad as his war continues to stall.

The 10,000-strong force is set to be used on the battlefield in the coming days as the Russian tyrant looks to claw back Kursk.

Putin and Kim, pictured in June 2024.

Questions have been raised about how well the Korean soldiers will fight having not seen combat since the Vietnam War and with the units armed, clothed, and run by the Russians.

Lee said that the soldiers in North Korea will have been forced to go and they will be young, so they won't be that committed to the fighting. 

He said: "It will be individuals at first, but more like as time passes, I think there'll be like a larger number of group defections, including officers."

That's because, Lee says, the Russians will likely treat them as "expendable" and even more poorly than their own troops. 

He said: "Russian soldiers don't respect them as their fellow warriors 

"They will treat them as their human shields."

Eventually, the North Koreans will realise the hierarchy and how they are being seen as "disposable" by the Russians and look to flee, Lee said.

He added: "I think they'll die without any impact.

"Putin and Kim Jong-un would expect more from them... they won't get the expected results."

But North Korean soldiers could be thinking twice about defecting as it could see their families thrown in prison. 

Pyongyang has a guilty-by-association policy; if the North's soldiers are seen defecting by colleagues their families could be put in jail.

Lee said: "They would be socially not respected, there's criticism [they would face] from the community and organizations."

High-ranking families would likely face a more severe punishment if authorities knew their relative had fled.

But Lee, whose family fled Pyongyang in 2014, said some families might not even know their brother, son or father are in Russia fighting as North Korea keeps all troop movements secret.

The troops will be watched over by a Worker's Party political officer who will administer two hours of ideological training a day.

Speaking of his own experience in ideological training, Lee said: "Mainly we are educated about Kim family's history and the military policy. 

"The main focus point is we have to sacrifice ourselves for the Kim family and the party, and the military."

To the troops in Russia, that would mean teaching them to avoid Western psychological warfare techniques and preventing them from deserting.

He said: "So, [troops will be told] 'don't pick up any material from Ukraine government or in the South Korean language' and 'they [claims in the propaganda they hear] are all fake', and 'it's not true' if someone defects, or 'if you're arrested, you'll be tortured'." 

But Lee believes the soldiers will be susceptible to any psy-ops the Ukrainian government uses to try and get troops to defect. 

He added: "I would say, if Ukraine's government conducts a psychological strategy against North Korean soldiers then the chances are really high [of defection] because they don't have real motivation. It's not for money, right? They are not getting paid.

"And obviously it's [their motivation] not defending your country, and then your parents, and yourself. So it's just that they are mobilised by the North Korean supreme commander Kim Jong-un."

While Lee expects the North Korean troops to do poorly in Russia, if they did do well it could spur Kim to invade South Korea. 

He said: "Kim Jong-un will have massive confidence. And then North Korean soldiers will be happy about their achievement in Russia and also if that's the case, South Korea should be alarmed. 

"It's a higher possibility Kim Jong-un will make misjudgment against South Korea."

 

 

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