By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Why A Partial Victory Will Solve Little

The Russian invasion of Ukraine spurred a steep increase in the defense expenditure of Western and Central European countries, with spending exceeding that of 1989, when the Cold War drew to a close, according to a new report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The region’s military expenditure rose to $345 billion in 2022, with Finland and Lithuania upping their spending the most on a percentage basis.

Europeans were inspired by the visit of U.S. President Joe Biden to Warsaw and Kyiv in February. Biden reaffirmed that while the United States is far away, it is committed to freedom in Europe—and understands, as we do, that Ukraine is fighting for the freedom of all of us.

Ukraine does not want to be at war with Russia. But it has become increasingly clear that Russia decided long ago that it is at war with us. For many years, the Kremlin has systematically undermined international stability and security by violating international law, using or threatening to use force, and undermining democratic institutions through political and hybrid warfare. Its aggression against Ukraine is the most extreme expression of these ongoing actions.

If Russia wins and Ukraine falls, central Europe may be next. Accordingly, defeating Russia now in Ukraine will reduce the chances of Ukraine’s backers’ having to spill their blood and other treasure later. It will convey that frozen conflicts and endless wars have no place in our region. And it will make clear to tyrants everywhere that aggression will not be rewarded, and dictators will not be permitted to carve the planet into spheres of their evil influence.

That is also why participants better continue supporting Ukraine until Russian forces withdraw from its territory entirely, putting a definitive end to the Kremlin’s revanchism and imperialism. Ending the war with Russia still in possession of Crimea and regions in eastern Ukraine would be like issuing an open invitation to all authoritarian lunatics who think it is OK to invade their neighbors based on fabricated, hateful narratives, killing hundreds or thousands of innocent civilians in the process.

In short, peace can come only on Ukraine’s terms. Freezing conflicts is Russia’s favorite way of buying time by pretending to end a war it started. A frozen conflict would not bring stability or improve security or economic conditions in the long run. Instead, it would allow Russia to regroup and rebuild its forces while continuing to wage political warfare and export its imperial ideology.

 

On The Frontlines

Europe has stood together in the face of Russian aggression. Throughout history, they have experienced Russia’s revanchism, totalitarianism, occupation, deportations, and massacres. For many years, central Europeans have warned against these dangers. As leaders from the states on the frontlines of this broader fight, one could know from day one that various countries have a particularly central role to play. Our history has also taught us that standing up against evil and supporting those who fight back is essential. Many visited President Volodymyr Zelensky in besieged Kyiv.  It is also why nations have taken in millions of refugees—and from the first days of the Russian invasion, shipped military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.

The war has injected new energy into the transatlantic alliance. Many NATO members are doing more now to increase defense spending and modernize their armed forces than at any time in the history of the partnership. As one adopts new commitments at the alliance’s Vilnius summit in July, it includes continuing to upgrade our defense plans and increase the readiness of our forces. Our shared security will require even more financial and human resources to keep our military and technological edge in the future. Europeans have shown they can carry their fair share of the burden; their military support to Ukraine also means their defense industries, strengthening the transatlantic alliance. This is an essential principle of our help: aiding Ukraine does not mean eroding our defense capabilities.

Another time would be better to lessen our resolve. As the fight on the battlefield intensifies this spring, one should look toward the summer and fall. And participants continue to stand by Ukraine without qualification or reservation. That includes ensuring it receives all the weapons and financial assistance it needs to defeat Russia and restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is a legitimate request by Ukraine’s democratically elected government. Our military support so far has proved vital in combat. Given Russia’s indiscriminate shelling and targeting, no conventional weapon should be excluded a priori. And while one can agree that it matters what type of weapons are supplied, sometimes it's even more critical how quickly and courageously one can make these decisions. Every hesitation and every delay is dangerous for Ukraine. Giving it the leverage it needs to win is the best way to avoid protracted war. And one should remember that the people of Ukraine are watching the recurring discussions about the type of weapons nations hesitates to ship; as some of us might be tempted by war fatigue, the Ukrainians continue to defend their country and their lives.

This includes the recent indictment of Russian President Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court; the court can continue investigating war crimes committed in Ukraine. But it is also time to establish a special tribunal that will hold the Russian top leadership accountable for the crime of aggression it has achieved. One has heard the call by Ukraine, and the Council of Europe, EU institutions, and more than 30 countries have expressed their support for setting up an ad hoc international criminal tribunal with this mandate. Some are also proposing the confiscation of Russian assets and reserves, estimated at $350 billion to $400 billion in the West. These funds could be used for the postwar reconstruction of Ukraine.

 

After The War

Nor is it too early to plan for Ukraine’s postwar security guarantees. There will be no investment and sustainable reconstruction in Ukraine unless it can defend itself against future aggression.

The future of European security must be based on a solid foundation, with NATO as the anchor of a transatlantic community that promotes democratic values, security cooperation, and peaceful resolution of disputes. At its upcoming summit in Vilnius, NATO will have to answer difficult yet unavoidable questions about the alliance’s future, including its relationship with Ukraine and future strategy on Russia. In 2008, the allies decided that Ukraine’s future (along with Georgia’s) could involve membership in NATO. Now is the time for the alliance to lay out a clear and credible path for Ukraine’s membership if and when Kyiv's wishes and conditions allow. And until then, one must be ready to provide security guarantees, beyond political assurances, that prevent Ukraine from becoming a gray zone once and for all. Gray zones create opportunities for authoritarian regimes to sow instability and heighten tensions.

As for Russia, it is fair to say that our longstanding dual-track approach—including deterrence and dialogue—needs an upgrade. Yet deterrence and strength must be at the core of our posture; dialogue can serve as a tool to communicate determination and resolve tensions but should not be considered an end. Talking to a wall will not bring a change in Russian behavior. Faced with a defunct dialogue, as a political-military alliance, NATO must be prepared to adjust its strategy on the go. Seventy-six years ago, in this magazine, George Kennan called for a policy of containment toward the Soviet Union. Similar principles can be applied today, with military strength, hard-hitting sanctions, Russia’s isolation, and transatlantic unity as key tenets of our strategy.

Also, Washington’s concern for freedom and security in the Indo-Pacific. Security is a global challenge, as is our joint fight for democracy and freedom. If Europe is to remain whole and free, American involvement and leadership will remain crucial. Yet resolve to support Ukraine will also help deter aggression in other parts of the world, conveying that tyrants will not be appeased in Europe, Asia, or elsewhere. That message will be unmistakable when Ukraine wins and Russia is defeated.

History has its moments, and this is one of them. That is why  Europeans have stepped up to do more in service of a united Europe and a renewed transatlantic relationship. And it is why one must stay the course in Ukraine, defeating the dark forces of revanchism and supporting Kyiv until victory.

 

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