By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Today's NATO Meeting In Vilnius

Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine is a turning point in history. War has returned to Europe, and great-power rivalries are growing. Authoritarian regimes are coming together to challenge the global rules and institutions that underpin peace and stability. Russian President Vladimir Putin is clamping down on freedoms and deepening divisions within his country, as the Wagner paramilitary company’s rebellion demonstrated. But no one should underestimate Russia or the dangers facing the world today.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is responding to a more unpredictable world with unity and strength. NATO allies in Europe and North America, and our partners across the globe, have provided unprecedented economic and military support to Ukraine. Over the last decade, NATO has implemented the largest reinforcement of our collective defense in a generation. We have strengthened our military presence in Eastern Europe and increased defense spending. With Finland’s membership—and soon Sweden’s—NATO is growing stronger and larger.

They need to continue this momentum and maintain strength and unity. This is precisely what NATO leaders did during the summit in Vilnius today.  NATO allies confirmed unwavering support for Ukraine, strengthening our defense and increasing our cooperation with our European and Indo-Pacific partners to defend the global rules-based order. These are the main priorities for Vilnius and beyond.

 

Freedom For Ukraine

Leaders that visited Ukraine witnessed the terrible suffering but also the tremendous bravery and resolve of the Ukrainian people in defending their freedom. 

If Russia stops fighting, there will be peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, it will cease to exist as a nation.

Hence Ukrainians will not waiver because the more gains they make on the battlefield, the stronger their hand will be at the negotiating table.

Everyone wants this brutal war to end, but just peace cannot mean freezing the conflict and accepting a deal dictated by Russia. A false peace would only give Moscow time to regroup, rearm, and attack again. We must break the cycle of Russian aggression, and the best way to achieve lasting peace tomorrow is to support Ukraine so that it prevails as a sovereign nation now.

NATO allies have stood by Ukraine since it gained independence 30 years ago. They provided years of training and support after Russia illegally annexed Crimea and destabilized the Donbas in 2014. Since Moscow’s February 2022 invasion, they have stepped up unprecedented support for Ukraine’s right to self-defense, enshrined in the UN Charter. Over the last year and a half, NATO countries have trained and equipped new Ukrainian armored brigades and provided tanks, combat vehicles, and advanced air defenses. NATO allies will also train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter jets. This support shows that we are committed to Ukraine for the long haul.

To strengthen Ukraine, they have agreed on a multi-year package of support. So far this year, pledges already amount to over $500 million. This package will help Ukraine rebuild its defense and security sector to defend against further aggression. It will ensure the Ukrainian armed forces are fully interoperable with NATO forces.

Over the last 18 months, Ukraine has taken considerable strides in transitioning away from military doctrines, training methods, and equipment dating from the Soviet era toward NATO standards and equipment. Ukraine is more integrated with our alliance than ever before, and so we must take steps to reflect this reality.

In Vilnius, they upgraded political ties by hosting the first meeting of the new NATO-Ukraine Council, together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is a platform for decisions and crisis consultation, where NATO allies and Ukraine sit as equals to tackle shared security concerns. All NATO allies agreed that Ukraine would become a member of NATO. NATO’s door remains open, as they have proved by inviting Finland and Sweden to join last year. Ukraine’s NATO membership is a matter for NATO allies and Kyiv to decide: Russia does not have a veto. Vilnius so far has set a strong vision for Ukraine’s future, bringing the country closer to NATO.

A security guard walks in front of a banner outside the venue of the NATO summit in Vilnius.

 

Addressing Authoritarianism

After the Cold War, NATO worked hard to forge more constructive relations with Moscow, including arms control, countering terrorism, combating piracy, and increasing our scientific cooperation. But Putin walked away from peaceful cooperation, with a pattern of increasingly reckless behavior from Chechnya to Georgia and Syria to Ukraine. Putin has dismantled the international arms control architecture and is engaging in dangerous nuclear saber-rattling.

Even if the war were to end tomorrow, there is no sign that Putin’s broader ambitions have changed. He sees freedom and democracy as a threat and wants a world where big states dictate their neighbors' actions. This puts him in constant confrontation with NATO’s values and international law.

If Putin wins in Ukraine, it would be a tragedy for Ukrainians and dangerous for the world. It would message other authoritarian regimes that they can achieve their objectives through force. China, in particular, is watching to see the price Russia pays or the reward it receives for its aggression. It is learning from Moscow’s military failures and the international community's response. The leaders of Japan and South Korea are concerned that what is happening in Europe today could happen in Asia tomorrow.

NATO does not see China as an adversary. Hence they should continue to engage with Beijing to tackle today’s global challenges, including nuclear proliferation and climate change. At the same time, China should use its considerable influence over Russia to end its illegal war in Ukraine. So far, however, Beijing has not condemned Moscow’s aggression and is increasing its economic, diplomatic, and military cooperation with Russia. The Chinese government’s increasingly coercive behavior abroad and repressive policies at home challenge NATO’s security, values, and interests. Beijing is threatening its neighbors and bullying other countries. It is trying to take control of critical supply chains and infrastructure in NATO states. Hence they are clear-eyed about these challenges and not only trade security interests for economic gains.

As autocratic regimes draw closer to one another, those who believe in freedom and democracy must stand together. NATO is a regional alliance of Europe and North America, but the challenges they face are global. That is why they have invited the leaders of the European Union and the Indo-Pacific partners—Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea—to join the Vilnius meeting today. They could have a common understanding of the security risks they face and work together to strengthen the resilience of their societies, economies, and democracies.

Russia’s pattern of aggression is a stark reminder that we cannot rule out the possibility of an attack against NATO countries. Hence they have chosen to continue strengthening and investing in deterrence and defense. Plus, they have not started from scratch. Since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, the alliance shifted from military missions beyond its borders to collective defense. The last ten years were a decisive decade of adaptation, preparing NATO for an unpredictable future.

Since 2014, they have deployed combat-ready troops to the eastern part of NATO territory for the first time, put more troops on higher readiness across the alliance, and adapted to defend NATO states in space and cyberspace as effectively as we do on land, at sea and in the air. This year, the defense spending of European allies and Canada is growing by 8.3 percent. This is the most significant increase in decades and the ninth consecutive year of increased defense spending across NATO. The United States is increasing its spending as well.

Today they took further significant steps to strengthen their deterrence and defense. They agreed to new, detailed regional defense plans, which are fully connected with the forces, capabilities, and command and control needed to execute them. NATO today has 300,000 troops on higher alert, including substantial air and naval combat power.

They are adapting their command structures to reflect the new geography of the alliance, with Finland’s membership, which has doubled NATO’s land border with Russia, and soon Sweden’s membership. This game-changer for European security will provide an uninterrupted shield from the Baltic to the Black Sea. We also substantially increase cooperation with the defense industry to ramp up production for Ukraine’s defenses and NATO's own.

This fundamental shift in their collective defense required a generational commitment to increase defense spending. They have been making progress today, but it is not as quickly as this dangerous world demands. In Vilnius, NATO allies made a more ambitious commitment to invest two percent of GDP in their defense. This figure could be a floor to build on, not a ceiling to reach. They agreed to invest more and invest it now because security is the foundation for their economies and societies to thrive. Preventing aggression today, they agreed, is less costly than fighting a war tomorrow.

Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine has shattered any remaining illusions of peaceful cooperation. Hence Vilnius NATO agreed to spend more and do more together to stay safe. The challenges are great, but NATO has been an anchor of stability for Europe and North America for almost 75 years. In a world of growing dangers, NATO will continue to protect its people, defend its democratic values, and keep its nations strong.

But there were also some downside points. For example, Turkey and Hungary’s refusal to admit Sweden threatens unity.

 

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