By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

The Pahalgam Incident

The United Nations urged India and Pakistan on Friday to “exercise maximum restraint” as relations between the two nuclear-armed rivals rapidly deteriorate. “Any issues between Pakistan and India, we believe, can be and should be resolved peacefully through meaningful mutual engagement,” U.N. spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric said. The warning came after Indian and Pakistani soldiers reportedly briefly exchanged fire across their heavily patrolled and contested border in the Kashmir region late Thursday.

Historically fraught tensions between the two countries flared on Tuesday, when militants killed 26 people near the Kashmiri resort town of Pahalgam in the worst terrorist attack on civilians in the India-administered territory in decades. India accused Pakistan of backing militants like the ones thought to be responsible for the attack, but Islamabad has denied involvement.

In response to Tuesday’s attack, India closed Attari-Wagah, its main land border crossing with Pakistan; revoked visas issued to Pakistani nationals, to go into effect on Sunday; and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, a crucial water-sharing agreement with Pakistan. The treaty was signed in 1960 and has withstood two wars between the countries. Some experts say that if India decides to restrict the flow of water, it could lead to severe water shortages for Pakistan, particularly during its dry season; the country is already struggling with drought and low rainfall. However, many experts say such fears are overblown and that India cannot hold back such a massive volume of water. There is also concern that New Delhi could release surplus water from some rivers without notifying Islamabad, potentially causing floods.

Pakistan warned on Thursday May 24, that any attempt by India to stop or divert the flow of water under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an “act of war,” also threatening to suspend the 1972 Simla Agreement, a peace treaty that established the de facto Line of Control that divides Kashmir between the two countries; India, under the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, established direct control over its portion of the majority-Muslim territory in 2019, effectively ending the region’s semi-autonomous status.

On Thursday, Pakistan also canceled special visas issued to Indian nationals, closed its airspace to all Indian-owned or operated airlines, reduced New Delhi’s diplomatic staff in Islamabad, and suspended all trade with India through third parties.

Kashmir has long been a flash point in India-Pakistan relations, but a recent uptick in extremist violence could point to a “sense of hopelessness” among the region’s population, FP columnist Sumit Ganguly wrote last November following another attack on civilians.

 

Pakistan Response

Pakistan believes an international investigation is needed into the killing of 26 men at a tourist spot in Indian Kashmir this week and is willing to work with international investigators, the New York Times reported on Friday, quoting Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif.

Asif told the newspaper in an interview that Pakistan was “ready to cooperate” with “any investigation which is conducted by international inspectors.”

India has said there were Pakistani elements to the attack on Tuesday, but Islamabad has denied any involvement. The two countries both claim the mountainous region, but each controls only part of it.

Since the attack, the nuclear-armed nations have unleashed a raft of measures against each other, with India putting the critical Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines.

Asif told the newspaper that India had used the aftermath of the militant attack as a pretext to suspend the water treaty and for domestic political purposes.

India was taking steps to punish Pakistan "without any proof, without any investigation," he added.

"We do not want this war to flare up, because flaring up of this war can cause disaster for this region," Asif told the newspaper.

 

 

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