By Eric Vandenbroeck and co-workers

Water as a National Security Flashpoint

Water has long been a tool of warfare, but in recent years, the world has entered a dark new era of hydroterrorism. Around the globe, from Yemen to Ukraine, this critical resource is increasingly being used as a tool of control. According to the Pacific Institute, global water-related violence surged by more than 50 percent in 2023 alone. Yet, international institutions still treat water as a development or environmental issue, rather than as the national security flashpoint it has become.

Fair-weather frameworks, such as the United Nations’ Water Convention and the Integrated Water Resources Management approach, won’t survive the coming storms, and as climate shocks intensify, ignoring this threat is nothing short of negligent. Climate-driven water stress breeds desperation, especially in places where corrupt or absent governments create a vacuum. And extremist groups step into this void, offering a distorted sense of order.

This problem is particularly pronounced in the Sahel, where violent extremist groups with ties to the Islamic State and al Qaeda exploit water scarcity for power. In areas abandoned by underfunded governments, these groups offer water and resources to desperate communities, recruiting through a disturbing fusion of faith and survival.

In my homeland of Gambia, which is located in the Sahel, rising salinity from climate change is creeping inland. As a result, nearly a third of the country’s rice fields could become unusable within a decade. In neighboring Senegal, water demand is projected to surge by up to 60 percent by 2035, while rainfall has generally decreased.

Tensions are already rising fast. More than a quarter of Gambia’s 2.6 million people lack access to safe drinking water. Seasonal water shortages drive internal migration and strain cities such as Banjul. Over the past five years, there have been 450 clashes between farmers and herders in the central Sahel, primarily over dwindling water sources and grazing land. Gambia’s strong tradition of religious tolerance has helped it resist the allure of extremism thus far. But rising youth unemployment and climate stress heighten the risk of radicalization.

 

 

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